April 21, 2026 • 21 mins
Steve Yates joins to break down what’s actually going on with Iran right now. Are we in a ceasefire, close to a deal, or just stuck in a messy in between phase? We get into Trump’s strategy, what’s real versus media noise, and whether the U.S. has already weakened Iran in a meaningful way. Plus a wider conversation on what happens next and how similar pressure tactics could play out in places like Venezuela and Cuba.
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Has Trump already won the Iran War?
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Or what's going on here? Are we gonna seize fire?
Are we're not at a ceasefire? Do we have Iran
right where we want them? We've got to bring in
our friend Steve Yates here to make sense of all
of this, and that is certainly what he does. He's
a national security expert and host of the forthcoming Nation
States with Yates podcast, which will be on the Clay
(00:44):
Buck Podcast Network. And we're very excited about that. Good sir,
appreciate you making the time today.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Well, thank you very much, Buck, and can't wait to
get Nation States with Yates underway.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, it's gonna be exciting a couple of weeks out.
You guys are gonna love it deep dive. You're gonna
learn so much. Be smarter than all your friends and
all the national security things, which is really that's the
best reason to listen to podcasts. Be smarter than everybody
else on stuff, so then you can just you know,
dunk on them when you're at you know, barbecues and stuff.
So here we go, give me your like, like the
thirty thousand foot view of where we are right now
(01:19):
on the Iran deal, the conflict.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
How do you think it's looking well?
Speaker 1 (01:25):
I think from the highest level, President Trump accurately saw
something that had been essentially running on autopilot for way
too many decades. That some attempts at negotiations direct multilateral
involving the Europeans going other ways had been tried. The
Obama administration tried to buy the threat with their deal,
(01:45):
and we've basically gone through so many rounds of this,
but there is this sort of cancer that is right
in the middle of the world, that sits in the
center of a lot of global energy flows. I think
he saw kind of the crossroads of some geopolitics and
economic security and other matters that just needed attention. And
(02:08):
so I think at that level, what we've done to
degrade the capabilities of the theocratic regime is already a win,
and they could come back, but it's not going to
be anything like what they were at or near to
accomplishing anytime in the near future.
Speaker 4 (02:26):
So we're dealing with.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
Sort of the old pottery barn situation of you break something,
do you own it or you have to put it
back together? My answer to that is no, we are
under no obligation to put everything back together, but we
probably are going to need to be able to marshal
what I would call a maintenance crew. And I hope
the United States isn't the front and center of that
maintenance crew. Hopefully it'll be people closer to having skin
(02:49):
in the game in the region that will make sure
that whatever Iran is able to do with these remnants
is no longer able to hold hostage global markets, nuclear weapons,
and basically to try to undermine the fundamental interest in
the United States.
Speaker 4 (03:04):
So those fronts, I think we've done very very well.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
The media war, the information more, I have to say,
I mean, really, right now, we're in the fog, and
it's it's been harder than I think it should have been.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Now why why is that?
Speaker 1 (03:18):
So?
Speaker 3 (03:19):
Is that just a function of Trump being Trump to
get negotiating leverage by talking about things publicly and then
the media processes that meaning every Trump truth you know
or tweet if you will, as as a policy uh
as like a major policy shift onto itself. Why is
(03:41):
this because because I will say, there are people and
you and I know who they are. There are the
there are the people who are who are rooting for Trump,
and therefore I would argue America and civilization but rooting
for Trump on this. But do feel like things have
shifted about what we're trying to do and how fast
it's going or how well it's going. And is that
media narrative or is that a reflection of what's actually happening.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
How do you see?
Speaker 3 (04:06):
You know, people say things just to give some specific here,
some meat on the bone. Okay, so it's not regime change,
but it was kind of regime change at the start
if that happened to happen. But it was really about
the nuclear program. But even if we don't get all
of the nuclear program, at least we've gotten pretty much
their main military assets that allow projection beyond their own borders,
(04:26):
not their sort of standing. Arn't like, how do you
make it make sense? Steve explain that I'll do with.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
The best I can.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
But you know, basically, one of the great sins of
the Iraq War, and there were several mistakes that I
think were not necessary, that was to go to war
with only one specific cause and it was distilled down to, well,
they have WMD capabilities and they're so close, and we
(04:53):
have to go to the United Nations Security Council and
get this blessed. And between Tony Blair and Colon Pale
at the State Department and a lot of others, it
all rested on that thin read and when there wasn't
a situation where you could.
Speaker 4 (05:05):
Give inconclusive or incontrovertible proof.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
Here it is. Here's why we got it. We win
and be able to walk home. It just mushroomed into
a whole bunch of other things. We have mission creep,
nation building and all that other stuff. So President Trump
has done the right thing in terms of setting some
of the early sort of targets for why we are
doing this, and he focused on the WMD programs, which
(05:30):
we could verify locations of and we could degrade.
Speaker 4 (05:33):
But there was I.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Think the way he negotiates and the combination of half
the world or maybe more of the world just wants
him to fail and is really inherently anti American. And
you throw Israel into the mix and they just get
the hebgbis And so there was just this the way
he tries to shape the information environment lent itself to
(05:58):
the warriors on one side, and the people who just
inherently believe he was always going to fail and this
is just awful and their doomers, and so I think
that's part of it, and I think part of it.
As you know, Buck, these things are multi layered and hard.
I mean, trying to knock down a government that has
been in place for this long, even if you're just
(06:20):
trying to knock them down a few notches, that's risky
and complicated. And you throw in China having a dependency
on their on their energy, the Europeans deciding to take
a breather. It's just a whole bunch of things that
just went a little bit wild, I think predictably. So,
but people don't have patience.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Well, that's for sure.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
We live in an impatient world. We'll come back into more.
I want to ask you coming up here, Okay, so
what next? And then we'll also have some fun with
a Steve. I want you to fix Venezuela and Cuba too,
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to ninety eight ninety eight ninety eight. Okay, so we're
in a kind of cease fire or not really, but
we're not blowing them up. There's some ships have been
shot at, we seized in Iranian ship, but we're not in.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
All out war. You know, We're in this kind of
weird space. What should happen now?
Speaker 3 (08:10):
And we got negotiators going to Islamabad, So what do
you think should happen and what do you think will happen?
Speaker 1 (08:16):
Well, I think that's unclear whether the talks are going
to be reconvened. We're sort of in that nether world
right now, the Iranian regime. It turns out when you
take out a couple of rungs of leadership across institutions
in a country, that you end up with weird divisions
that don't coordinate and communicate effectively.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
And so I think we're dealing with some of that.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
Some of those remnants lash out and shoot, some of
those remnants are trying to get a deal because they'd
rather not die, and so I think we're dealing with
a little bit of that fog. But I think the
administration is prepared to negotiate if there is real deal
to be talked about. And it definitely looks better to
be trying to deal and negotiate. But we have more options,
(09:01):
and we're going to have to start using some of
those military options soon to knock down a little bit
more of what these remnants are that are trying to
fire on us or anybody else. I think the strain
of our moose has to be open. It was one
thing to declare it open. Seemed to last for like
twenty four hours. The world's ensued decided that Nope.
Speaker 4 (09:20):
It's not open. And that's Lloyd's of London. Last I checked.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
London is in America. I'd like that be addressed. Please,
let's get some attention to that matter. And so I
think that the President has gone gradually on this, probably
as a risk management strategy. And the idea is if
you can get some version of Venezuela where we have
different leaders but are behaving differently but it isn't a
(09:47):
complete change, that that might be more manageable. And I
think we're just inching our way through that kind of
a process.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
At the moment.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
So I expect in the next two days or so
we're going to have a make or break on this
next round of talks. And probably some more ordinance is
going to be flying. But ships are going to have
to start moving soon. We have the capability to do that.
Speaker 4 (10:10):
We have to make it so.
Speaker 3 (10:12):
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do Venezuela cube together. How about that. I'll package it
together for you. Not that they're are you not incredibly
(11:11):
just in cultures and countries and blah blah blah. Okay, fine,
but you know they are both Latin America, they speak Spanish,
and they've been ruined by communism. They have that going
for them, which is not good. Both ruined by communism,
So they have that in common. Start with Venezuela. How
do you think it's looking and what comes next? And
where do we put that in all of this?
Speaker 1 (11:32):
Well, so far the gradualism seems to be working, at
least if you wanted to make sure that the behavior
of the regime toward the United.
Speaker 4 (11:39):
States has been a bit different.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Disposition of energy seems to have been an enduring change.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
And there are or links.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
I mean, basically, Cuba, Venezuela and a few others were
a nexus where this kind of communist revolution, socialist craziness
was being spread and it was toxic through our region.
It resulted in a lot of things that fed the
drug wars, the immigration floods, and a whole bunch of
other problems. So I think we definitely have put a
(12:09):
shock in the system, and we're even seeing some of
the effects of that as far away as Peru, where
a Chinese owned port maybe get unowned by the Chinese
in the not too distant future and our sort of
backyard will stop being a devil's playground. I think there's
pressure for the regime in Cuba to have to break
bend reform in a profound way, and seeing what the
(12:32):
president's been willing to do with Venezuela but even more
so with Iran, has to give them some serious pause.
There's a big, big deal to be had if they
choose the right way.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
There's a lot of money not very.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
Far away in Florida and elsewhere that really will do big,
beautiful things on that island. If there's a change in
that government in a real and verifiable way, that is
I think a bigger prospect than frankly Venezuela or Iran
could really see in the near future. And so hopefully
that means I'd say, in the months ahead, some real
(13:05):
movement is breaking there.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
But what do we how does that What do we
do to get that to happen? Right, this is the
thing we want it to happen to be great. I'm
in South Florida. There'd be parties everywhere. People will be
super happy if Cuba was free of the tyrants, boot
of communist bureaucratic tyranny. And you know this, this just
(13:29):
feels though, like, Okay, what has to happen? What do
we have to do? They're already, as I understand it,
rolling blackouts. You know, the economy is a mess. But
the problem is that coconomy has been a mess for
fifty fifty something years, Right, so what is the what
are the options to get an.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
Actual change going there?
Speaker 3 (13:48):
Or is it really just we got to just wait
and see and it'll implode on its own at some point.
Speaker 4 (13:53):
Yeah, I think that a decision is going to have
to be made.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
Does the president try a Kim Jong un kind of
sit down and paint out this is what the bright
and shiny future really is and try to make sure
that that gets to a broader audience that's outside of
regime control, so that there are more people that say,
wait a minute, that's a heck of a lot better
than what we've had and if.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
That's real, we should try that.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
Is it going to be something that's more like a
venezuela where the top dog's got to go, but the
next in line or third down the line, is someone
we choose that we're going to work with imperfect partial transition.
Or is it going to be something where we have
to put maximum pressure and basically cut off enough of
the economy that squeezes it, like what we're doing with
the blockade of Iran, where ninety percent of their economic
(14:39):
growth is tied to in and out purchases of energy
related goods, and then squeeze them until they cry uncle.
Speaker 4 (14:48):
It's going to have to be one of those things.
I have not heard from.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
Anyone in the administration whether they're looking at one of
those versus another. I think that they probably need to
have a very high level envoy go and make a
down payment on what this is, what the brighter path
would look like, and see if they've got a sense
of who could be prepared to run with that in
today's Cuba.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
Yeah, why the people that run Cuba are at this point,
I mean they've always been uh, you know, corrupt and tyrannical,
dirt bags.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
But can't we buy them off in a sense, right?
I mean, I know that that's not what people.
Speaker 3 (15:25):
Oh we want jeffersony democracy and we want justice and
also okay, yeah I want that. But to get there,
couldn't we say to these guys, hey, you can, you
can preside over a transition to a rule of law,
you know, democratic system and become heroes to your country.
Will help you do it, and we'll make you really
rich in the process, and we'll forget We'll give you
(15:47):
amnesty for the bad stuff that's happened to this point.
If you if you really help us create a free
a free Cuba to me, you know, if you're you're
some dirtbag on this island that doesn't even have power
anymore and doesn't have Venezuela sending it all the all
the cheap and subsidized oil that it was. You know
what I'm saying, Well, like, can't we make them an
offer they can't refuse?
Speaker 2 (16:05):
That's with Cuba.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
It feels like that's very possible, and ron's a different
deal that you know they would it will be themselves
and iron maybe, but they won't do that in Cuba.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
I think. So what happens now.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
I think that that is roughly the contours are where
we need to go. Uh and it's it's basically, we're
we're here to make this kind of a deal and uh,
you work with us, we are going to make you rich.
You won't get a madurero treatment. But there has to
be the if you don't work with us, you're gonna get.
Speaker 4 (16:35):
The Maduro treatment or worse.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
Uh and uh so you can get wealthy and be
a historic transition and will basically leave you alone to
be fat, rich and happy here on this island. Or
we you know, we're not going to leave this for
the next generation. If that's that's basically the theme of
the Trump second term. He's picking up things that people
said could never be solved and have languished for multiple,
(17:00):
multiple decades, and he's adamant about not leaving office and
leaving these to the next generation. That's why I think
something has to be coming in the months ahead to
get underway if he's serious about the timetable between now
and when he would leave office.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
So I bearing in mind that you know, you're a
guy who understands the situation with China and Taiwan super well,
and the audience knows I went with you to Taiwan
and you were the suirper there and making sure that
we got all the meetings and learn and I got
to learn so much.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
You already knew this stuff.
Speaker 3 (17:28):
But you understand the Chinese Communists, but it's not it's
not really communist, right, the guys who run China, there's
like a thousand of them, and they they're almost like
mercantilist nationalists that have this veneer of there are no
meaningful way are they communists other than it's a mafia state,
like they do what they want, they get to be
super rich. So my point is that there's not some
(17:51):
deep ideological Leninist Marxist you know, this is really about
the workers paradise, right, I mean the people that don't
really believe that. And you know, I put any twister
turn on that you want, Steve, And I'm just throwing
that out there, because how do we think about that.
The people in charge of the Cuban Communist Party, are
they they true believers? Are they still thinking the lenin
(18:12):
Is paradise, the worker's paradise is going to happen, or
they just a bunch of thugs that got to go
with what they got, you know, and I feel like
that tells us a lot about what's possible there.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Sorr. I threw two big different things that you're there,
but you know you'll make sense.
Speaker 4 (18:23):
Of it well.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
But ultimately it really does come back to the mafia
as the most helpful and accurate model for trying to
understand what we're really dealing with and how these countries
really operate under their current governments. They have the veneer
of some kind of utopian ideology, but everyone who lives
in those countries knows that that has nothing to do
with the realities of their families, their loved ones, their future.
(18:49):
And so it's all about power and control and you
have to work your way. Everyone in the system basically
is compromised and corrupted. That way, if everyone is corrupted,
they have to be obedient, because on any given day
you could be far up on charges or kicked out
or given the long dirt nap. And so that's basically
(19:12):
the tyranny of fear and corruption combined with some money
to slash around, and America for many decades has given
a lot of money for these regimes to slash around.
I mean in China, it was a lot of investment
and concessional lending, hopes and dreams.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
With Iran, there.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
Were literal pallets full of cash that went in and
unfrozen sanctions related assets that went back in. And so
really it's basically this mafia model, and how do mafia's
come down. It's basically, if there's any moment where the
numbers just below the boss say there's more of us
(19:49):
than there are of him, and we want a different
direction and we've got a better option here, then that's
how the deal gets made.
Speaker 4 (19:56):
One guy or two guys get taken out and the.
Speaker 3 (19:59):
New regime in the Cuban context, then this is what
I'm It's the guys who are the wrung below the
guys who were in the very top. We'll be like, hey,
we want to be rich and not have these problems
and do our own thing here, and America is putting
some stuff on the table that we're willing to go with.
So you don't think it's you know that they're going
to be sitting there like, no, we're we are true
(20:21):
committed Leninists, and like we'd rather be in the dark
for the next fifty years, because that's that's what.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
Carl Marx would have wanted for us or whatever.
Speaker 1 (20:28):
I'd try to find two guys in the next rundown
that are sort of competitive with each other, but can
find a way for that to be constructive competition. I'd
invest in both, and I'd put invest in air quotes,
sort of along the lines you were talking about before,
and let's see if wealth and opportunity is enough to say,
you know, let's give piece of chance.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
There we go.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
Steve Yates, guys going to be launching an awesome podcast.
You're one stop shop for national security conversations and analysis.
So he will be doing that with Nation States with
Yates soon and we're very honored and Steven, thank you
so much for that. We're going to launch that on
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Speaker 2 (22:01):
Yates, you're the man. Talk soon.
Speaker 4 (22:03):
Thanks
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Has Trump already won the Iran War?
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Or what's going on here? Are we gonna seize fire?
Are we're not at a ceasefire? Do we have Iran
right where we want them? We've got to bring in
our friend Steve Yates here to make sense of all
of this, and that is certainly what he does. He's
a national security expert and host of the forthcoming Nation
States with Yates podcast, which will be on the Clay
(00:44):
Buck Podcast Network. And we're very excited about that. Good sir,
appreciate you making the time today.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
Well, thank you very much, Buck, and can't wait to
get Nation States with Yates underway.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, it's gonna be exciting a couple of weeks out.
You guys are gonna love it deep dive. You're gonna
learn so much. Be smarter than all your friends and
all the national security things, which is really that's the
best reason to listen to podcasts. Be smarter than everybody
else on stuff, so then you can just you know,
dunk on them when you're at you know, barbecues and stuff.
So here we go, give me your like, like the
thirty thousand foot view of where we are right now
(01:19):
on the Iran deal, the conflict.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
How do you think it's looking well?
Speaker 1 (01:25):
I think from the highest level, President Trump accurately saw
something that had been essentially running on autopilot for way
too many decades. That some attempts at negotiations direct multilateral
involving the Europeans going other ways had been tried. The
Obama administration tried to buy the threat with their deal,
(01:45):
and we've basically gone through so many rounds of this,
but there is this sort of cancer that is right
in the middle of the world, that sits in the
center of a lot of global energy flows. I think
he saw kind of the crossroads of some geopolitics and
economic security and other matters that just needed attention. And
(02:08):
so I think at that level, what we've done to
degrade the capabilities of the theocratic regime is already a win,
and they could come back, but it's not going to
be anything like what they were at or near to
accomplishing anytime in the near future.
Speaker 4 (02:26):
So we're dealing with.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
Sort of the old pottery barn situation of you break something,
do you own it or you have to put it
back together? My answer to that is no, we are
under no obligation to put everything back together, but we
probably are going to need to be able to marshal
what I would call a maintenance crew. And I hope
the United States isn't the front and center of that
maintenance crew. Hopefully it'll be people closer to having skin
(02:49):
in the game in the region that will make sure
that whatever Iran is able to do with these remnants
is no longer able to hold hostage global markets, nuclear weapons,
and basically to try to undermine the fundamental interest in
the United States.
Speaker 4 (03:04):
So those fronts, I think we've done very very well.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
The media war, the information more, I have to say,
I mean, really, right now, we're in the fog, and
it's it's been harder than I think it should have been.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Now why why is that?
Speaker 1 (03:18):
So?
Speaker 3 (03:19):
Is that just a function of Trump being Trump to
get negotiating leverage by talking about things publicly and then
the media processes that meaning every Trump truth you know
or tweet if you will, as as a policy uh
as like a major policy shift onto itself. Why is
(03:41):
this because because I will say, there are people and
you and I know who they are. There are the
there are the people who are who are rooting for Trump,
and therefore I would argue America and civilization but rooting
for Trump on this. But do feel like things have
shifted about what we're trying to do and how fast
it's going or how well it's going. And is that
media narrative or is that a reflection of what's actually happening.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
How do you see?
Speaker 3 (04:06):
You know, people say things just to give some specific here,
some meat on the bone. Okay, so it's not regime change,
but it was kind of regime change at the start
if that happened to happen. But it was really about
the nuclear program. But even if we don't get all
of the nuclear program, at least we've gotten pretty much
their main military assets that allow projection beyond their own borders,
(04:26):
not their sort of standing. Arn't like, how do you
make it make sense? Steve explain that I'll do with.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
The best I can.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
But you know, basically, one of the great sins of
the Iraq War, and there were several mistakes that I
think were not necessary, that was to go to war
with only one specific cause and it was distilled down to, well,
they have WMD capabilities and they're so close, and we
(04:53):
have to go to the United Nations Security Council and
get this blessed. And between Tony Blair and Colon Pale
at the State Department and a lot of others, it
all rested on that thin read and when there wasn't
a situation where you could.
Speaker 4 (05:05):
Give inconclusive or incontrovertible proof.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
Here it is. Here's why we got it. We win
and be able to walk home. It just mushroomed into
a whole bunch of other things. We have mission creep,
nation building and all that other stuff. So President Trump
has done the right thing in terms of setting some
of the early sort of targets for why we are
doing this, and he focused on the WMD programs, which
(05:30):
we could verify locations of and we could degrade.
Speaker 4 (05:33):
But there was I.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Think the way he negotiates and the combination of half
the world or maybe more of the world just wants
him to fail and is really inherently anti American. And
you throw Israel into the mix and they just get
the hebgbis And so there was just this the way
he tries to shape the information environment lent itself to
(05:58):
the warriors on one side, and the people who just
inherently believe he was always going to fail and this
is just awful and their doomers, and so I think
that's part of it, and I think part of it.
As you know, Buck, these things are multi layered and hard.
I mean, trying to knock down a government that has
been in place for this long, even if you're just
(06:20):
trying to knock them down a few notches, that's risky
and complicated. And you throw in China having a dependency
on their on their energy, the Europeans deciding to take
a breather. It's just a whole bunch of things that
just went a little bit wild, I think predictably. So,
but people don't have patience.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Well, that's for sure.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
We live in an impatient world. We'll come back into more.
I want to ask you coming up here, Okay, so
what next? And then we'll also have some fun with
a Steve. I want you to fix Venezuela and Cuba too,
But we'll get there in the meantime. Smart investors have
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to ninety eight ninety eight ninety eight. Okay, so we're
in a kind of cease fire or not really, but
we're not blowing them up. There's some ships have been
shot at, we seized in Iranian ship, but we're not in.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
All out war. You know, We're in this kind of
weird space. What should happen now?
Speaker 3 (08:10):
And we got negotiators going to Islamabad, So what do
you think should happen and what do you think will happen?
Speaker 1 (08:16):
Well, I think that's unclear whether the talks are going
to be reconvened. We're sort of in that nether world
right now, the Iranian regime. It turns out when you
take out a couple of rungs of leadership across institutions
in a country, that you end up with weird divisions
that don't coordinate and communicate effectively.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
And so I think we're dealing with some of that.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
Some of those remnants lash out and shoot, some of
those remnants are trying to get a deal because they'd
rather not die, and so I think we're dealing with
a little bit of that fog. But I think the
administration is prepared to negotiate if there is real deal
to be talked about. And it definitely looks better to
be trying to deal and negotiate. But we have more options,
(09:01):
and we're going to have to start using some of
those military options soon to knock down a little bit
more of what these remnants are that are trying to
fire on us or anybody else. I think the strain
of our moose has to be open. It was one
thing to declare it open. Seemed to last for like
twenty four hours. The world's ensued decided that Nope.
Speaker 4 (09:20):
It's not open. And that's Lloyd's of London. Last I checked.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
London is in America. I'd like that be addressed. Please,
let's get some attention to that matter. And so I
think that the President has gone gradually on this, probably
as a risk management strategy. And the idea is if
you can get some version of Venezuela where we have
different leaders but are behaving differently but it isn't a
(09:47):
complete change, that that might be more manageable. And I
think we're just inching our way through that kind of
a process.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
At the moment.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
So I expect in the next two days or so
we're going to have a make or break on this
next round of talks. And probably some more ordinance is
going to be flying. But ships are going to have
to start moving soon. We have the capability to do that.
Speaker 4 (10:10):
We have to make it so.
Speaker 3 (10:12):
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do Venezuela cube together. How about that. I'll package it
together for you. Not that they're are you not incredibly
(11:11):
just in cultures and countries and blah blah blah. Okay, fine,
but you know they are both Latin America, they speak Spanish,
and they've been ruined by communism. They have that going
for them, which is not good. Both ruined by communism,
So they have that in common. Start with Venezuela. How
do you think it's looking and what comes next? And
where do we put that in all of this?
Speaker 1 (11:32):
Well, so far the gradualism seems to be working, at
least if you wanted to make sure that the behavior
of the regime toward the United.
Speaker 4 (11:39):
States has been a bit different.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Disposition of energy seems to have been an enduring change.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
And there are or links.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
I mean, basically, Cuba, Venezuela and a few others were
a nexus where this kind of communist revolution, socialist craziness
was being spread and it was toxic through our region.
It resulted in a lot of things that fed the
drug wars, the immigration floods, and a whole bunch of
other problems. So I think we definitely have put a
(12:09):
shock in the system, and we're even seeing some of
the effects of that as far away as Peru, where
a Chinese owned port maybe get unowned by the Chinese
in the not too distant future and our sort of
backyard will stop being a devil's playground. I think there's
pressure for the regime in Cuba to have to break
bend reform in a profound way, and seeing what the
(12:32):
president's been willing to do with Venezuela but even more
so with Iran, has to give them some serious pause.
There's a big, big deal to be had if they
choose the right way.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
There's a lot of money not very.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
Far away in Florida and elsewhere that really will do big,
beautiful things on that island. If there's a change in
that government in a real and verifiable way, that is
I think a bigger prospect than frankly Venezuela or Iran
could really see in the near future. And so hopefully
that means I'd say, in the months ahead, some real
(13:05):
movement is breaking there.
Speaker 3 (13:07):
But what do we how does that What do we
do to get that to happen? Right, this is the
thing we want it to happen to be great. I'm
in South Florida. There'd be parties everywhere. People will be
super happy if Cuba was free of the tyrants, boot
of communist bureaucratic tyranny. And you know this, this just
(13:29):
feels though, like, Okay, what has to happen? What do
we have to do? They're already, as I understand it,
rolling blackouts. You know, the economy is a mess. But
the problem is that coconomy has been a mess for
fifty fifty something years, Right, so what is the what
are the options to get an.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
Actual change going there?
Speaker 3 (13:48):
Or is it really just we got to just wait
and see and it'll implode on its own at some point.
Speaker 4 (13:53):
Yeah, I think that a decision is going to have
to be made.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
Does the president try a Kim Jong un kind of
sit down and paint out this is what the bright
and shiny future really is and try to make sure
that that gets to a broader audience that's outside of
regime control, so that there are more people that say,
wait a minute, that's a heck of a lot better
than what we've had and if.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
That's real, we should try that.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
Is it going to be something that's more like a
venezuela where the top dog's got to go, but the
next in line or third down the line, is someone
we choose that we're going to work with imperfect partial transition.
Or is it going to be something where we have
to put maximum pressure and basically cut off enough of
the economy that squeezes it, like what we're doing with
the blockade of Iran, where ninety percent of their economic
(14:39):
growth is tied to in and out purchases of energy
related goods, and then squeeze them until they cry uncle.
Speaker 4 (14:48):
It's going to have to be one of those things.
I have not heard from.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
Anyone in the administration whether they're looking at one of
those versus another. I think that they probably need to
have a very high level envoy go and make a
down payment on what this is, what the brighter path
would look like, and see if they've got a sense
of who could be prepared to run with that in
today's Cuba.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
Yeah, why the people that run Cuba are at this point,
I mean they've always been uh, you know, corrupt and tyrannical,
dirt bags.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
But can't we buy them off in a sense, right?
I mean, I know that that's not what people.
Speaker 3 (15:25):
Oh we want jeffersony democracy and we want justice and
also okay, yeah I want that. But to get there,
couldn't we say to these guys, hey, you can, you
can preside over a transition to a rule of law,
you know, democratic system and become heroes to your country.
Will help you do it, and we'll make you really
rich in the process, and we'll forget We'll give you
(15:47):
amnesty for the bad stuff that's happened to this point.
If you if you really help us create a free
a free Cuba to me, you know, if you're you're
some dirtbag on this island that doesn't even have power
anymore and doesn't have Venezuela sending it all the all
the cheap and subsidized oil that it was. You know
what I'm saying, Well, like, can't we make them an
offer they can't refuse?
Speaker 2 (16:05):
That's with Cuba.
Speaker 3 (16:06):
It feels like that's very possible, and ron's a different
deal that you know they would it will be themselves
and iron maybe, but they won't do that in Cuba.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
I think. So what happens now.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
I think that that is roughly the contours are where
we need to go. Uh and it's it's basically, we're
we're here to make this kind of a deal and uh,
you work with us, we are going to make you rich.
You won't get a madurero treatment. But there has to
be the if you don't work with us, you're gonna get.
Speaker 4 (16:35):
The Maduro treatment or worse.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
Uh and uh so you can get wealthy and be
a historic transition and will basically leave you alone to
be fat, rich and happy here on this island. Or
we you know, we're not going to leave this for
the next generation. If that's that's basically the theme of
the Trump second term. He's picking up things that people
said could never be solved and have languished for multiple,
(17:00):
multiple decades, and he's adamant about not leaving office and
leaving these to the next generation. That's why I think
something has to be coming in the months ahead to
get underway if he's serious about the timetable between now
and when he would leave office.
Speaker 3 (17:14):
So I bearing in mind that you know, you're a
guy who understands the situation with China and Taiwan super well,
and the audience knows I went with you to Taiwan
and you were the suirper there and making sure that
we got all the meetings and learn and I got
to learn so much.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
You already knew this stuff.
Speaker 3 (17:28):
But you understand the Chinese Communists, but it's not it's
not really communist, right, the guys who run China, there's
like a thousand of them, and they they're almost like
mercantilist nationalists that have this veneer of there are no
meaningful way are they communists other than it's a mafia state,
like they do what they want, they get to be
super rich. So my point is that there's not some
(17:51):
deep ideological Leninist Marxist you know, this is really about
the workers paradise, right, I mean the people that don't
really believe that. And you know, I put any twister
turn on that you want, Steve, And I'm just throwing
that out there, because how do we think about that.
The people in charge of the Cuban Communist Party, are
they they true believers? Are they still thinking the lenin
(18:12):
Is paradise, the worker's paradise is going to happen, or
they just a bunch of thugs that got to go
with what they got, you know, and I feel like
that tells us a lot about what's possible there.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Sorr. I threw two big different things that you're there,
but you know you'll make sense.
Speaker 4 (18:23):
Of it well.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
But ultimately it really does come back to the mafia
as the most helpful and accurate model for trying to
understand what we're really dealing with and how these countries
really operate under their current governments. They have the veneer
of some kind of utopian ideology, but everyone who lives
in those countries knows that that has nothing to do
with the realities of their families, their loved ones, their future.
(18:49):
And so it's all about power and control and you
have to work your way. Everyone in the system basically
is compromised and corrupted. That way, if everyone is corrupted,
they have to be obedient, because on any given day
you could be far up on charges or kicked out
or given the long dirt nap. And so that's basically
(19:12):
the tyranny of fear and corruption combined with some money
to slash around, and America for many decades has given
a lot of money for these regimes to slash around.
I mean in China, it was a lot of investment
and concessional lending, hopes and dreams.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
With Iran, there.
Speaker 1 (19:28):
Were literal pallets full of cash that went in and
unfrozen sanctions related assets that went back in. And so
really it's basically this mafia model, and how do mafia's
come down. It's basically, if there's any moment where the
numbers just below the boss say there's more of us
(19:49):
than there are of him, and we want a different
direction and we've got a better option here, then that's
how the deal gets made.
Speaker 4 (19:56):
One guy or two guys get taken out and the.
Speaker 3 (19:59):
New regime in the Cuban context, then this is what
I'm It's the guys who are the wrung below the
guys who were in the very top. We'll be like, hey,
we want to be rich and not have these problems
and do our own thing here, and America is putting
some stuff on the table that we're willing to go with.
So you don't think it's you know that they're going
to be sitting there like, no, we're we are true
(20:21):
committed Leninists, and like we'd rather be in the dark
for the next fifty years, because that's that's what.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
Carl Marx would have wanted for us or whatever.
Speaker 1 (20:28):
I'd try to find two guys in the next rundown
that are sort of competitive with each other, but can
find a way for that to be constructive competition. I'd
invest in both, and I'd put invest in air quotes,
sort of along the lines you were talking about before,
and let's see if wealth and opportunity is enough to say,
you know, let's give piece of chance.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
There we go.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
Steve Yates, guys going to be launching an awesome podcast.
You're one stop shop for national security conversations and analysis.
So he will be doing that with Nation States with
Yates soon and we're very honored and Steven, thank you
so much for that. We're going to launch that on
Clanbuck Network. In the meantime, pay some bills here, super sure.
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Speaker 2 (22:01):
Yates, you're the man. Talk soon.
Speaker 4 (22:03):
Thanks
Host
Buck Sexton
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