April 22, 2026 • 22 mins
Buck Sexton is joined by Alex Berenson, author of Unreported Truths on Substack, to break down the current state of tensions with Iran as a fragile ceasefire holds. They discuss U.S. strategy, the role of oil prices, limits on escalation, and whether a real deal is possible or if both sides are simply buying time.
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
He's back by popular demand. Alex Berenson, host of or
I should say, author of Unreported Truths on substack, although
you host too. In a sense, Unreported Truths is a substack.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
It's excellent. Go check it out.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
And you have been taking some very interesting analysis on
a range of issues, including Iran, and I see some
of the downside at least similarly to you at this point,
although right now I feel like there is a little
bit of optimism from the Trump knows exactly what he's
doing camp based on the price of oil. How do
(00:54):
you assess? By the way, I had Rampaul on radio
and asked him about this, and all he want to
talk about how the war started and how we should
and I'm like, buddy, I get it, but we're here now,
let's talk about now where do you think? And he
didn't really want to talk about now. By the way,
where do you think we should be? Or how do
you think things are going?
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Right? Now?
Speaker 2 (01:10):
As you and I talk, the ceasefires kind of underway.
The Strait is kind of open, we're kind of negotiating.
Speaker 3 (01:19):
So, I mean, I think the reason it's relevant to
talk about what happened six weeks ago is I think
it constrained the president's freedom of action now and that
and the Iranians are smart enough to recognize that, right,
So so you know, I wouldn't. I'm in a unique position.
I think you and I might actually be in kind
of a similar position on this, and that we are
(01:41):
certainly not anti Trump. We don't have Trump arrangement syndrome.
And at the same time, we're not in the like
Israel runs everything, and you know that the Donald Trump
is just a puppet of Israel. So we're not in
the Candace group, and we're not on the left. And
yet at the same time, and I certainly don't want
to see a powerful Ran. I don't want to see
(02:02):
in Iran that has a nuclear weapon. At the same time, like,
I don't think the president should just go starting wars himself.
I think that's a mistake, Okay, I think it is.
I think we have a Constitution for a reason. I
think Congress is Article one for a reason. And even
though Congress hasn't done a good job standing up for
its own power. I think that matters, and that's why
(02:24):
I think what we're seeing now to some extent, comes
out of the fact that the President of the United
States did not prepare the country, or Congress or the
world for this war. Right, so he had this tremendous
success in Venezuela. We capture Madurero, nobody gets hurt. It's
I mean, it's really I mean, it's really an amazing operation. Right,
(02:45):
And and net Yahuo comes to him over the winter
and says, you can do it in Iran. You can
knock out the you know, the whole regime. And we
think there's a good possibility there's going to be a
volt You're going to be the conquering hero of the
Middle East without losing a single you know, soldier or airman.
And you can see why that would be so appealing. Right.
(03:07):
The president goes with his gut, that's what he that,
you know. And he went with his gut in twenty
twenty when he killed SOLEMANI. That was successful. He went
with his gut last year when he captured Maduro. That
was successful. So he rolled the dice, but it didn't work,
even though we killed all those people. The regime did
not collapse. There were not people in the streets, and
(03:29):
they responded in a way that actually was predictable. He
just hoped it wouldn't happen, which is they shut the straight.
So because he hasn't come in with the right authorization,
with the right groundwork, he can't really credibly escalate this
to say we're going to put boots on the ground,
or even we're going to really put our ships at risk,
(03:50):
and so he increased the ceasefire, and I would say,
right now we're in this kind of holding pattern. I
think the Iranians are kind of locking their wounds and
figuring out can we can we continue to do this.
The President is clearly concerned and certainly Republicans are clearly
concerned about the price of oil, and so both sides
I think have an incentive to, you know, have to
sort of kick the can down the road in a
(04:12):
way that you wouldn't have predicted. When this whole thing
starts negotiations.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
I was gonna say, my, my, my sense of where
this is going. And we haven't courted this beforehand, but
I've been saying from the beginning of negotiations with a deadline,
that we're going to go through this period of the
straight some ships are getting through, like what's really going on.
We're gonna get to the end of this in the
last few days before Trump is going to say, you know,
(04:37):
we will obliterate you down to the lizards to borrow
from from borat if you remember, you know, like that's
what he said about a rock, like we will kill
you down to the lizards, like we will annihilate your
entire society, all this stuff. And then at the eleventh hour,
when the ceasefire is about to formally expire, we're gonna
hear our. You know, our brilliant jd Vance and amazing
Jared Kushner have got really great progress here. So we're
(05:01):
going to extend and and but I would just say
this in a sense, I'm because I don't want us
to just keep kind of bombing them and not. But
on the other side of it, I think that's exactly
what Iran wants. They just want to be in this
ROPI dope of okay, yes, maybe no. And as long
as some oil is getting getting through, they build up
and they know that they don't just have to outlast
this bombing campaign. They can just try to outlast Trump.
(05:23):
He's not going to be around for that long. And
if there's a Democrat who comes in, we know how
that's going to go.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
You know. I think I think you're right. I think
that is their strategy is to last. And I think, well,
here's here's the bigger and even bigger problem. I would
say from the US point of view, right, we're the
global superpower. We still are, and that straight was open, okay,
and we sort of implicitly guaranteed to the world it
would be open. And now we've kind of walked away
(05:52):
from that promise. And that I think, and I posted
this on X a couple of days ago, is why Trump.
You know, he said blockade. What he really means is
the blockade is he's going to reopen the street and
he's trying to do that in a way that's relatively
low risk. But I think you're right. I think I
think he knows that if gas is at five dollars
a gaw and much less more, you know, in November,
(06:12):
it will just be an absolute blue wave. You can't
have that happen. And so he's gonna he's very strongly
incentive to get to some kind of negotiation. And my joke,
which I have not made publicly yet this will be
the first time I make this is so the Obama
administration got a fifteen year you know deal on nuclear
and right now the Trump administratians at twenty. The Ranians
(06:35):
are five. So maybe it will be fifteen years in
one day, will be the will be the ultimate. So
he can say he out negotiated Obama.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
But can I also take you to where I am
and you know, give me, give me your your full
bearance in you know, assessment on this one. The way
I see it is the we have set a red
line essentially, or we have set a non negotiable of
they cannot keep enriched uranium. I do not see a
world in which the Iranians go, you know what, you're right,
(07:05):
we're gonna we're gonna get We're gonna give it all
away in a way that is verifiable and acceptable to you.
I just think that we have this is like the
unstoppable force, the immovable object. I just see this as
an intractable position because fundamentally, why would they do that?
Speaker 1 (07:23):
What are we going to do if they don't?
Speaker 3 (07:24):
So here's one out. If Trump wants the out right
he says, we're going to post satellites, which we're doing
alreaddit right over it, over the sites where we think
they have the uranium. They verify it's there. Now they
could be lying or not. And he says, well, we
know they can't touch that without much less move it
without us knowing. That's as good as them giving it away.
(07:47):
Now obviously that's not as good as them giving it
to the you know, some third party or moving it
outside their borders. But if he wants out, you'll know,
you'll know who had the leverage here if that's the
kind of deal they reach.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
So where do you think this ends up? Is the
Iranian regime? Largely they still control. You know, people are saying, well,
who's doing theiations. They're foreign minister, the head of their
parliament essentially. So people are like, oh, all the leaders
are gone. Well no, not really, right, I mean some
of the yeah, some of the big ones, but not actually.
(08:20):
I mean there's no by the way, if all leaders
were gone, you'd be hearing about how people can speak
freely in the streets and they're toppling statues.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
The most you've seen.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
None of that, okay, because I think they recognize another
part of this that hasn't gotten nearly enough.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
I think focus there was a.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
Liquidation of thirty five or forty thousand people that occurred
without us knowing any If you're going to start mowing
protesters down, that told people this. Not that I'm the
head of a secret police force, but I have studied
a lot of secret police force stuff in history. If
you're going to start mowing people down in the public square,
that's also the best time to go find whoever you
think is a problem for you and take them out too, right.
(08:56):
I mean, it's like a Night of the Long Knives thing.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
That's I mean, that's a great point. I actually not
even consider that. I was actually going to push back
a little bit because you know, initially we saw numbers
like five to twelve thousand dead. Now the administration is
saying forty thousand dead. It feels a little bit like
that number just keeps getting bigger. I've listened. Five thousand
dead would be a lot, and I'm not justifying it.
It's a terrible regime, but I do think we should
be careful. You know, somebody's gonna say one hundred thousands.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
Trump if you're asking for specificity, with numbers with Trump,
you're going to be waiting around a long time. To
be fair, I mean, but it's I think we can
all agree it's it's thousands. If it's thousands dead, and
they were already killing protesters, yeah, they're also going to
kill anybody that their secret police had. You know that
basically the besiege UH and the IRGC have on the
radar as a troublemaker, just eliminate them to put that
(09:44):
body on the pile. So I think that we we
waited until after they had done essentially a total clamp down,
and now we're like, well, where's the great resistance figure?
They they know better than we do who that would
have been, and that guy is probably already unfortunately underground.
All Right, I got I got up. We could talk
around stuff forever. But by the way, I just appreciate
(10:04):
because you there is this weird little spot in the
discussion right now. For I want what is best for America.
I want Trump to come out winning and looking great
on this. I don't want to boots on the ground
in Iran for sure, So that's what I want to
see here. But I don't think that sitting around saying
everything that Trump is doing with this has been brilliant
(10:25):
and worked out as it like, It's just I don't
think it's good to be inaccurate about what has happened either,
which is clearly there have been some bumps along the way,
and you know you shouldn't get folded in with the
like well, like.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Iran is a great uh you great.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Partner for piece of the Region's take a trip right exactly,
Like let's just show up in t Iran. So many
of these people it's amazing to me. You know, you've
seen some of these imbeciles too, and it's not even
word naming them. Some of these people left they're talking
about how great Cuba is or how great Iran is.
Like they wouldn't even go to these places because they
know they'd be killed. Same thing with Hamas and Gaza.
You can't even these people who will speak on behalf
(11:00):
of these despotic regimes. They can't even go to the
place that they say is not so bad, and yet
they still anyway.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
It's just kind of funny.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
You know, the whole Solomony family, Solomoni family is in
La living large and like taking Instagram photos.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
I'm sure you've signed it that I saw, I saw
like the grand niece of Solomonia, and I got a
lot of guys, I know, were like, yeah, maybe she
des already go to court, you know, like maybe maybe
she's not so bad all right.
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So for me, look, he's toast. It's a disaster. There's
no coming back from this. Politically, he may even lose
his freedom over this. You know, we'll see what charges
may or may not. But for me, the outstand he's
clearly a scumbag and has destroyed any brand, any political
(12:34):
future he has. All that is true, and I think
now it's just a question of what criminal jeopardy he
may be in, and we've cover a lot of them
in the show. The part of this that's more interesting
to me, and I want to get your take on it,
is how did this all come together? And why now?
Like why now?
Speaker 3 (12:48):
What?
Speaker 1 (12:49):
With the timing is what interests me.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
So I put a post up yesterday or a Sunday
on Unreported Truth on my sub sec about this because
I do think it's fascinating, right and Small is a
bad guy, right, and let's not pretend that there aren't
Republicans who you know, aren't guilty of similar stuff. But
he's a Democrat, right, which means on some level. He
is pretty hected by the legacy media, meaning his behavior
(13:13):
has to get really bad or there has to be
a reason for them to kind of toss him overboard,
because what you've seen in the last let's say, seventy
two hours to week is a lot of people saying, like,
we knew about this, right all. You know, Capitol Hill
is not that big a place. He was in the
Bay Area, you know, Nancy Pelosi, Gavin knew some It's
(13:35):
a pretty coherent democratic establishment up there. And he was
not discreet, right he was if you were, you know,
an attractive twenty year old who was, you know, interested
in democratic politics, he was looking at you if you
were in the Bay Area or DC. So people knew
about this, but you know, nobody said anything about it.
Well why you know, you can, especially in the wake
(14:00):
of me too. It's very interesting that this guy seems
to have been protected, So why did his protection suddenly lapse? Well,
in California right now, he is one of the or
was one of the leading candidates to be the Democratic
governor general to be to get essentially the Democratic nomination,
But California has this weird primary system where everybody Republican
(14:22):
Democrat independent runs in the jungle primary. That's right, And
the Democrats now have a big problem with the jungle primary,
which is that even though California is heavily Democratic, there
are so many real Democrats running with a real chance
of winning, they're splitting the vote so badly that there
is a real chance, or there was before Swallowall was
(14:44):
forced out of the race, that he or that the
Democrats might split the vote so badly that there'd be
two Republican candidates getting through the jungle primary, meaning California
would have a Republican governor even though it's seventy percent Democratic. Obviously,
from the Democratic point of view, that is a disaster.
And so what do you have to do. You have
to convince some people to drop out. Well, nobody was
(15:05):
dropping out, but suddenly they got the number one guy
on their side to drop out, and the jungle primary
is much less likely. And if you don't think that
that played a role in all this exploding in the
last week, you know, you were born last night.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
So so just on the math and that a little bit.
So it's like there's eight people, I think the Democrat
side that we're all running the two Republicans and eight Democrats.
So by Swallwell, because I thought this too, I said, okay,
well this guy because the other theory that's out there
just put this out there that I'm seeing from people
who are smart and who are serious people is no.
It was actually these women really just were so outraged
(15:42):
at the notion that this guy was really going to
be the governor. Like it's one thing to be one
of four hundred and thirty five members of Congress, but
be the governor of California was just too much for them.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
That has been put forward. What do you make of that?
Speaker 3 (15:53):
I mean, look, I do I think that there is
real legitimate outrage coming from these women. Yes, I do, especially,
and I do think there's a snowball effect where if
you know he hit on you and you didn't realize
he was doing this to twenty other women, when it
comes out, you get even madder because now it's like
all the nice things he said to you, you know,
he just said to you know whoever else was around
(16:15):
at that time too. So more women do come out,
and I agree that there is there is something organic
that can happen, but what I'm talking about is for
it to get to the level where he's forced to resign. Right,
it has to at some point make the jump from
X from Blue Sky to the mainstream media, especially on
the left right, because if the mainstream media is just
(16:36):
discounting this stuff as a bunch of you know, it's
just Elon trying to speak against a prominent.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
Democratic Also, there was no there was no just to
add this what you're saying. Sometimes they hit the slow
down button for a second, you know what I mean,
they'll go, well, you know, well we're covering this, but
we still need to be fair.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
Blah blah blah blah.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
It was he looked, you know, at the end of
three hundred when Leonidas has like four hundred arrows at
him from the the movie, he was like, I mean,
it was they just annihilated this guy in the media.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
There was no plush back.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
It literally took seventy two hours, right, And so you
have to believe, even if you agree that you know
that this was real outrage and that it actually did
start from some progressives because they were really, oh, this
is just another example proof that me too didn't really
do anything. The fact that it went to sort of
the CNN, Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle and then the
(17:27):
Democratic establishment so quickly that you have to look at
the jungle primary and the idea that having this guy support,
let's say, go to Katie Porter or Stire or somebody,
that means that at least one Democrat gets through. They've
got a view that as a positive.
Speaker 2 (17:43):
For them, right, I mean, so to me, it's if
all these women came forward to the judgments in the
different newsrooms would certainly be affected by what you're saying, right,
meaning the way that they cover it and everything. So
even if it was somewhat organic in the early days,
because I'll tell you, we had Steve Hilton on who
was the top Republican. We had him on radio, and
I asked him the same question because usually you can
(18:05):
also see the fingerprints on this. You can see from
like a mile away, right, You're like, oh, we know
who did this or who was involved. You know, even
in the dirty politics stuff, you can point and this
one was it seemed a little murkier. He said, he
thought it was that there was that this was Tom
Steyer coordinating the background, and I was just kind of like, interesting,
I mean, Steyer does I don't know, I don't know
if he has it in him, but maybe he's certainly
(18:25):
got the money to do it.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
It's it's one. It's one of those things. And you
and you surely remember this. During COVID, everyone will remember this. Yeah,
there was this very weird phenomenon where the entire media
suddenly would seize on a phrase like get the vaccine
when it's your turn, wait your turn, and and and we.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
Saw this on a second. Hold on a second, Alex,
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are all these different theories out there. Swallwell's clearly finished
(19:46):
and over. I do have to ask you, though, did
you see that Brian Steltz was claiming that this was
a victory for independent investigative journalism?
Speaker 1 (19:54):
Like is he serious though?
Speaker 3 (19:57):
Like?
Speaker 1 (19:57):
Are these people that think that the media gets a
pat of the back?
Speaker 3 (19:59):
Now?
Speaker 1 (20:00):
This guy ran for president and no one cared.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
I don't know if, I don't know if Grimas is
ever serious. Okay, I mean I'm not a good I'm
not a good guy to discuss Brian Stelter because I
can't stand him, and he tried to have me canceled
in twenty twenty one. I mean he openly did. He
openly tried to get to get Substack to ban me
after after Twitter had banned me. I mean, so so
(20:24):
I'm not a neutral observer of him, but he's ridiculous.
Speaker 1 (20:29):
He's definitely ridiculous.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
And by the way, I just literally saw that there
is now another rape accusation against Wallwell, so you're right,
like his problems are now much deper than what his
political future is. You know, he may he may be
sort of not just a bad guy, but a criminally
bad guy. I guess we'll see. And so, but what
(20:52):
is so interesting is this idea that you know, the
media just seized on this so quickly, and it does
remind me of that moment you know in COVID when
you would hear wait two weeks and then everyone in
the media would say it or wait your turn for
the vaccine or you know, the vaccin seene reduces transmission
even if it doesn't give you one hundred percent protection.
(21:15):
They would all seize on everything. And I don't know
if that's just a meeting of the minds or if
there's something weird or happening, but we see it with
the legacy media where they literally just amplify each other,
and it's it's puzzling to watch, and it can clearly
happen the other way, as with this snowball crazy stuff.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
Go check out Alex's substack unreported truths. I'm a proud
subscriber myself, so this is I give him a full credit,
full marks for doing great work there. And mister Alex Barentson,
great to see you as always. We'll talk soon.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
Always a pleasure. Thanks book.
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You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
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wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
He's back by popular demand. Alex Berenson, host of or
I should say, author of Unreported Truths on substack, although
you host too. In a sense, Unreported Truths is a substack.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
It's excellent. Go check it out.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
And you have been taking some very interesting analysis on
a range of issues, including Iran, and I see some
of the downside at least similarly to you at this point,
although right now I feel like there is a little
bit of optimism from the Trump knows exactly what he's
doing camp based on the price of oil. How do
(00:54):
you assess? By the way, I had Rampaul on radio
and asked him about this, and all he want to
talk about how the war started and how we should
and I'm like, buddy, I get it, but we're here now,
let's talk about now where do you think? And he
didn't really want to talk about now. By the way,
where do you think we should be? Or how do
you think things are going?
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Right? Now?
Speaker 2 (01:10):
As you and I talk, the ceasefires kind of underway.
The Strait is kind of open, we're kind of negotiating.
Speaker 3 (01:19):
So, I mean, I think the reason it's relevant to
talk about what happened six weeks ago is I think
it constrained the president's freedom of action now and that
and the Iranians are smart enough to recognize that, right,
So so you know, I wouldn't. I'm in a unique position.
I think you and I might actually be in kind
of a similar position on this, and that we are
(01:41):
certainly not anti Trump. We don't have Trump arrangement syndrome.
And at the same time, we're not in the like
Israel runs everything, and you know that the Donald Trump
is just a puppet of Israel. So we're not in
the Candace group, and we're not on the left. And
yet at the same time, and I certainly don't want
to see a powerful Ran. I don't want to see
(02:02):
in Iran that has a nuclear weapon. At the same time, like,
I don't think the president should just go starting wars himself.
I think that's a mistake, Okay, I think it is.
I think we have a Constitution for a reason. I
think Congress is Article one for a reason. And even
though Congress hasn't done a good job standing up for
its own power. I think that matters, and that's why
(02:24):
I think what we're seeing now to some extent, comes
out of the fact that the President of the United
States did not prepare the country, or Congress or the
world for this war. Right, so he had this tremendous
success in Venezuela. We capture Madurero, nobody gets hurt. It's
I mean, it's really I mean, it's really an amazing operation. Right,
(02:45):
And and net Yahuo comes to him over the winter
and says, you can do it in Iran. You can
knock out the you know, the whole regime. And we
think there's a good possibility there's going to be a
volt You're going to be the conquering hero of the
Middle East without losing a single you know, soldier or airman.
And you can see why that would be so appealing. Right.
(03:07):
The president goes with his gut, that's what he that,
you know. And he went with his gut in twenty
twenty when he killed SOLEMANI. That was successful. He went
with his gut last year when he captured Maduro. That
was successful. So he rolled the dice, but it didn't work,
even though we killed all those people. The regime did
not collapse. There were not people in the streets, and
(03:29):
they responded in a way that actually was predictable. He
just hoped it wouldn't happen, which is they shut the straight.
So because he hasn't come in with the right authorization,
with the right groundwork, he can't really credibly escalate this
to say we're going to put boots on the ground,
or even we're going to really put our ships at risk,
(03:50):
and so he increased the ceasefire, and I would say,
right now we're in this kind of holding pattern. I
think the Iranians are kind of locking their wounds and
figuring out can we can we continue to do this.
The President is clearly concerned and certainly Republicans are clearly
concerned about the price of oil, and so both sides
I think have an incentive to, you know, have to
sort of kick the can down the road in a
(04:12):
way that you wouldn't have predicted. When this whole thing
starts negotiations.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
I was gonna say, my, my, my sense of where
this is going. And we haven't courted this beforehand, but
I've been saying from the beginning of negotiations with a deadline,
that we're going to go through this period of the
straight some ships are getting through, like what's really going on.
We're gonna get to the end of this in the
last few days before Trump is going to say, you know,
(04:37):
we will obliterate you down to the lizards to borrow
from from borat if you remember, you know, like that's
what he said about a rock, like we will kill
you down to the lizards, like we will annihilate your
entire society, all this stuff. And then at the eleventh hour,
when the ceasefire is about to formally expire, we're gonna
hear our. You know, our brilliant jd Vance and amazing
Jared Kushner have got really great progress here. So we're
(05:01):
going to extend and and but I would just say
this in a sense, I'm because I don't want us
to just keep kind of bombing them and not. But
on the other side of it, I think that's exactly
what Iran wants. They just want to be in this
ROPI dope of okay, yes, maybe no. And as long
as some oil is getting getting through, they build up
and they know that they don't just have to outlast
this bombing campaign. They can just try to outlast Trump.
(05:23):
He's not going to be around for that long. And
if there's a Democrat who comes in, we know how
that's going to go.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
You know. I think I think you're right. I think
that is their strategy is to last. And I think, well,
here's here's the bigger and even bigger problem. I would
say from the US point of view, right, we're the
global superpower. We still are, and that straight was open, okay,
and we sort of implicitly guaranteed to the world it
would be open. And now we've kind of walked away
(05:52):
from that promise. And that I think, and I posted
this on X a couple of days ago, is why Trump.
You know, he said blockade. What he really means is
the blockade is he's going to reopen the street and
he's trying to do that in a way that's relatively
low risk. But I think you're right. I think I
think he knows that if gas is at five dollars
a gaw and much less more, you know, in November,
(06:12):
it will just be an absolute blue wave. You can't
have that happen. And so he's gonna he's very strongly
incentive to get to some kind of negotiation. And my joke,
which I have not made publicly yet this will be
the first time I make this is so the Obama
administration got a fifteen year you know deal on nuclear
and right now the Trump administratians at twenty. The Ranians
(06:35):
are five. So maybe it will be fifteen years in
one day, will be the will be the ultimate. So
he can say he out negotiated Obama.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
But can I also take you to where I am
and you know, give me, give me your your full
bearance in you know, assessment on this one. The way
I see it is the we have set a red
line essentially, or we have set a non negotiable of
they cannot keep enriched uranium. I do not see a
world in which the Iranians go, you know what, you're right,
(07:05):
we're gonna we're gonna get We're gonna give it all
away in a way that is verifiable and acceptable to you.
I just think that we have this is like the
unstoppable force, the immovable object. I just see this as
an intractable position because fundamentally, why would they do that?
Speaker 1 (07:23):
What are we going to do if they don't?
Speaker 3 (07:24):
So here's one out. If Trump wants the out right
he says, we're going to post satellites, which we're doing
alreaddit right over it, over the sites where we think
they have the uranium. They verify it's there. Now they
could be lying or not. And he says, well, we
know they can't touch that without much less move it
without us knowing. That's as good as them giving it away.
(07:47):
Now obviously that's not as good as them giving it
to the you know, some third party or moving it
outside their borders. But if he wants out, you'll know,
you'll know who had the leverage here if that's the
kind of deal they reach.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
So where do you think this ends up? Is the
Iranian regime? Largely they still control. You know, people are saying, well,
who's doing theiations. They're foreign minister, the head of their
parliament essentially. So people are like, oh, all the leaders
are gone. Well no, not really, right, I mean some
of the yeah, some of the big ones, but not actually.
(08:20):
I mean there's no by the way, if all leaders
were gone, you'd be hearing about how people can speak
freely in the streets and they're toppling statues.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
The most you've seen.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
None of that, okay, because I think they recognize another
part of this that hasn't gotten nearly enough.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
I think focus there was a.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
Liquidation of thirty five or forty thousand people that occurred
without us knowing any If you're going to start mowing
protesters down, that told people this. Not that I'm the
head of a secret police force, but I have studied
a lot of secret police force stuff in history. If
you're going to start mowing people down in the public square,
that's also the best time to go find whoever you
think is a problem for you and take them out too, right.
(08:56):
I mean, it's like a Night of the Long Knives thing.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
That's I mean, that's a great point. I actually not
even consider that. I was actually going to push back
a little bit because you know, initially we saw numbers
like five to twelve thousand dead. Now the administration is
saying forty thousand dead. It feels a little bit like
that number just keeps getting bigger. I've listened. Five thousand
dead would be a lot, and I'm not justifying it.
It's a terrible regime, but I do think we should
be careful. You know, somebody's gonna say one hundred thousands.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
Trump if you're asking for specificity, with numbers with Trump,
you're going to be waiting around a long time. To
be fair, I mean, but it's I think we can
all agree it's it's thousands. If it's thousands dead, and
they were already killing protesters, yeah, they're also going to
kill anybody that their secret police had. You know that
basically the besiege UH and the IRGC have on the
radar as a troublemaker, just eliminate them to put that
(09:44):
body on the pile. So I think that we we
waited until after they had done essentially a total clamp down,
and now we're like, well, where's the great resistance figure?
They they know better than we do who that would
have been, and that guy is probably already unfortunately underground.
All Right, I got I got up. We could talk
around stuff forever. But by the way, I just appreciate
(10:04):
because you there is this weird little spot in the
discussion right now. For I want what is best for America.
I want Trump to come out winning and looking great
on this. I don't want to boots on the ground
in Iran for sure, So that's what I want to
see here. But I don't think that sitting around saying
everything that Trump is doing with this has been brilliant
(10:25):
and worked out as it like, It's just I don't
think it's good to be inaccurate about what has happened either,
which is clearly there have been some bumps along the way,
and you know you shouldn't get folded in with the
like well, like.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Iran is a great uh you great.
Speaker 2 (10:39):
Partner for piece of the Region's take a trip right exactly,
Like let's just show up in t Iran. So many
of these people it's amazing to me. You know, you've
seen some of these imbeciles too, and it's not even
word naming them. Some of these people left they're talking
about how great Cuba is or how great Iran is.
Like they wouldn't even go to these places because they
know they'd be killed. Same thing with Hamas and Gaza.
You can't even these people who will speak on behalf
(11:00):
of these despotic regimes. They can't even go to the
place that they say is not so bad, and yet
they still anyway.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
It's just kind of funny.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
You know, the whole Solomony family, Solomoni family is in
La living large and like taking Instagram photos.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
I'm sure you've signed it that I saw, I saw
like the grand niece of Solomonia, and I got a
lot of guys, I know, were like, yeah, maybe she
des already go to court, you know, like maybe maybe
she's not so bad all right.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
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earn precious metals event today, all right, the swallow well thing.
So for me, look, he's toast. It's a disaster. There's
no coming back from this. Politically, he may even lose
his freedom over this. You know, we'll see what charges
may or may not. But for me, the outstand he's
clearly a scumbag and has destroyed any brand, any political
(12:34):
future he has. All that is true, and I think
now it's just a question of what criminal jeopardy he
may be in, and we've cover a lot of them
in the show. The part of this that's more interesting
to me, and I want to get your take on it,
is how did this all come together? And why now?
Like why now?
Speaker 3 (12:48):
What?
Speaker 1 (12:49):
With the timing is what interests me.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
So I put a post up yesterday or a Sunday
on Unreported Truth on my sub sec about this because
I do think it's fascinating, right and Small is a
bad guy, right, and let's not pretend that there aren't
Republicans who you know, aren't guilty of similar stuff. But
he's a Democrat, right, which means on some level. He
is pretty hected by the legacy media, meaning his behavior
(13:13):
has to get really bad or there has to be
a reason for them to kind of toss him overboard,
because what you've seen in the last let's say, seventy
two hours to week is a lot of people saying, like,
we knew about this, right all. You know, Capitol Hill
is not that big a place. He was in the
Bay Area, you know, Nancy Pelosi, Gavin knew some It's
(13:35):
a pretty coherent democratic establishment up there. And he was
not discreet, right he was if you were, you know,
an attractive twenty year old who was, you know, interested
in democratic politics, he was looking at you if you
were in the Bay Area or DC. So people knew
about this, but you know, nobody said anything about it.
Well why you know, you can, especially in the wake
(14:00):
of me too. It's very interesting that this guy seems
to have been protected, So why did his protection suddenly lapse? Well,
in California right now, he is one of the or
was one of the leading candidates to be the Democratic
governor general to be to get essentially the Democratic nomination,
But California has this weird primary system where everybody Republican
(14:22):
Democrat independent runs in the jungle primary. That's right, And
the Democrats now have a big problem with the jungle primary,
which is that even though California is heavily Democratic, there
are so many real Democrats running with a real chance
of winning, they're splitting the vote so badly that there
is a real chance, or there was before Swallowall was
(14:44):
forced out of the race, that he or that the
Democrats might split the vote so badly that there'd be
two Republican candidates getting through the jungle primary, meaning California
would have a Republican governor even though it's seventy percent Democratic. Obviously,
from the Democratic point of view, that is a disaster.
And so what do you have to do. You have
to convince some people to drop out. Well, nobody was
(15:05):
dropping out, but suddenly they got the number one guy
on their side to drop out, and the jungle primary
is much less likely. And if you don't think that
that played a role in all this exploding in the
last week, you know, you were born last night.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
So so just on the math and that a little bit.
So it's like there's eight people, I think the Democrat
side that we're all running the two Republicans and eight Democrats.
So by Swallwell, because I thought this too, I said, okay,
well this guy because the other theory that's out there
just put this out there that I'm seeing from people
who are smart and who are serious people is no.
It was actually these women really just were so outraged
(15:42):
at the notion that this guy was really going to
be the governor. Like it's one thing to be one
of four hundred and thirty five members of Congress, but
be the governor of California was just too much for them.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
That has been put forward. What do you make of that?
Speaker 3 (15:53):
I mean, look, I do I think that there is
real legitimate outrage coming from these women. Yes, I do, especially,
and I do think there's a snowball effect where if
you know he hit on you and you didn't realize
he was doing this to twenty other women, when it
comes out, you get even madder because now it's like
all the nice things he said to you, you know,
he just said to you know whoever else was around
(16:15):
at that time too. So more women do come out,
and I agree that there is there is something organic
that can happen, but what I'm talking about is for
it to get to the level where he's forced to resign. Right,
it has to at some point make the jump from
X from Blue Sky to the mainstream media, especially on
the left right, because if the mainstream media is just
(16:36):
discounting this stuff as a bunch of you know, it's
just Elon trying to speak against a prominent.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
Democratic Also, there was no there was no just to
add this what you're saying. Sometimes they hit the slow
down button for a second, you know what I mean,
they'll go, well, you know, well we're covering this, but
we still need to be fair.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
Blah blah blah blah.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
It was he looked, you know, at the end of
three hundred when Leonidas has like four hundred arrows at
him from the the movie, he was like, I mean,
it was they just annihilated this guy in the media.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
There was no plush back.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
It literally took seventy two hours, right, And so you
have to believe, even if you agree that you know
that this was real outrage and that it actually did
start from some progressives because they were really, oh, this
is just another example proof that me too didn't really
do anything. The fact that it went to sort of
the CNN, Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle and then the
(17:27):
Democratic establishment so quickly that you have to look at
the jungle primary and the idea that having this guy support,
let's say, go to Katie Porter or Stire or somebody,
that means that at least one Democrat gets through. They've
got a view that as a positive.
Speaker 2 (17:43):
For them, right, I mean, so to me, it's if
all these women came forward to the judgments in the
different newsrooms would certainly be affected by what you're saying, right,
meaning the way that they cover it and everything. So
even if it was somewhat organic in the early days,
because I'll tell you, we had Steve Hilton on who
was the top Republican. We had him on radio, and
I asked him the same question because usually you can
(18:05):
also see the fingerprints on this. You can see from
like a mile away, right, You're like, oh, we know
who did this or who was involved. You know, even
in the dirty politics stuff, you can point and this
one was it seemed a little murkier. He said, he
thought it was that there was that this was Tom
Steyer coordinating the background, and I was just kind of like, interesting,
I mean, Steyer does I don't know, I don't know
if he has it in him, but maybe he's certainly
(18:25):
got the money to do it.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
It's it's one. It's one of those things. And you
and you surely remember this. During COVID, everyone will remember this. Yeah,
there was this very weird phenomenon where the entire media
suddenly would seize on a phrase like get the vaccine
when it's your turn, wait your turn, and and and we.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
Saw this on a second. Hold on a second, Alex,
Hold on a second. Here's a question, how many brokers
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are all these different theories out there. Swallwell's clearly finished
(19:46):
and over. I do have to ask you, though, did
you see that Brian Steltz was claiming that this was
a victory for independent investigative journalism?
Speaker 1 (19:54):
Like is he serious though?
Speaker 3 (19:57):
Like?
Speaker 1 (19:57):
Are these people that think that the media gets a
pat of the back?
Speaker 3 (19:59):
Now?
Speaker 1 (20:00):
This guy ran for president and no one cared.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
I don't know if, I don't know if Grimas is
ever serious. Okay, I mean I'm not a good I'm
not a good guy to discuss Brian Stelter because I
can't stand him, and he tried to have me canceled
in twenty twenty one. I mean he openly did. He
openly tried to get to get Substack to ban me
after after Twitter had banned me. I mean, so so
(20:24):
I'm not a neutral observer of him, but he's ridiculous.
Speaker 1 (20:29):
He's definitely ridiculous.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
And by the way, I just literally saw that there
is now another rape accusation against Wallwell, so you're right,
like his problems are now much deper than what his
political future is. You know, he may he may be
sort of not just a bad guy, but a criminally
bad guy. I guess we'll see. And so, but what
(20:52):
is so interesting is this idea that you know, the
media just seized on this so quickly, and it does
remind me of that moment you know in COVID when
you would hear wait two weeks and then everyone in
the media would say it or wait your turn for
the vaccine or you know, the vaccin seene reduces transmission
even if it doesn't give you one hundred percent protection.
(21:15):
They would all seize on everything. And I don't know
if that's just a meeting of the minds or if
there's something weird or happening, but we see it with
the legacy media where they literally just amplify each other,
and it's it's puzzling to watch, and it can clearly
happen the other way, as with this snowball crazy stuff.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
Go check out Alex's substack unreported truths. I'm a proud
subscriber myself, so this is I give him a full credit,
full marks for doing great work there. And mister Alex Barentson,
great to see you as always. We'll talk soon.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
Always a pleasure. Thanks book.
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