July 9, 2026 • 13 mins
The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has broken down, and the Middle East is once again on the brink of a much larger conflict. Buck breaks down the latest developments, including Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump's military response, the impact on global oil markets, and what could happen next. He outlines three possible scenarios: a limited exchange followed by renewed negotiations, a sustained U.S. military campaign to pressure Iran, or a broader regional war involving Iran's proxies and Israel.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's dive into the Iran situation with all of the
latest as up to the minute as I can get
it to you here. So last forty eight hours to
set the background here, the fragile ceasefire between the US
and Iran collapsed. As you know, we are now back
into active military exchanges. This is not a slow burn.
(00:21):
It is a rapid re escalation driven by Iranian attacks
on commercial shipping in the straight of war Moos and
a forceful response from President Trump, which is no surprise,
of course to anyone. Here's what's unfolded of the last
few days. On July seventh, Iran struck at least three
commercial vessels transitting the Straight of hor Moos. Reports indicate
(00:43):
Woman's a Katari liquefied natural gas tanker that caught fire
along with other flag tankers. This was a direct violation
of the understandings reached in the mid June memorandum, which
had produced a pause, albeit a shaky one, in the fighting.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps effectively tested whether the United
(01:04):
States would tolerate renewed harassment of international shipping. Washington's answer
came quickly and hard. US Central Command launched a new
round of precision strikes on July seventh, hitting more than
eighty targets inside Iran. The strikes focus on degrading Iran's
capability to threaten this strait, air defense systems, command and
(01:26):
control modes, coastal radar sites, anti ship missile batteries, and
more than sixty IRGC fast attack boats. Sentcom described it
as a powerful response and released video of the operation.
The United States also immediately revoked the temporary license that
had allowed Iran to sell oil. President Trump, attending the
NATO semitin Turkey, made the political line crystal clear, the
(01:49):
ceasefire is over. He stated that the US attacked very
powerfully last night and signal that further action is on
the table. If Iran continues to threaten shipping now, there
could be strikes tonight. Trump has said strikes are likely tonight.
We'll see. Iranian forces have responded by launching missiles and
drones toward US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, claiming strikes
(02:11):
on dozens of sites and downing a US drone. Air
raid sirens sounded in those countries. Oil markets, of course,
have reacted immediately to this. Brent krude surge several dollars
in a single session, is now trading in the high
seventies to low eighty dollars low eighties dollar range with
strong upward momentum, and there are other sharp gains in
(02:34):
other markets. The revocation of the Iranian oil sales waiver
and fresh fears of Hormuz disruption have reintroduced a serious risk.
Premium traffic through the Strait of Horn Moves, which had
been slowly recovering after the June agreement, is again under
severe strain. Some maritime trackers are showing sharply reduced transits
(02:55):
and effective constraints. Iran is once again as certain control
and warning vessels to use it designates the strait remains
the world's most critical energy choke point. Roughly twenty percent
of global seaborn oil normally moves through it. Any sustained
closure high risk environment sends immediate shockwaves through energy prices
and supply chains. So, as I sit here on the
(03:17):
evening of July eighth with you, that's where it currently stands.
Where is it going next? What are the likely paths forward?
What happens now? I'll address that with you in a second.
Our sponsor here is super Sure. Let me tell you something.
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treat that like the finish line, handshake, commission done, then
you may not hear from them again until it's time
(03:38):
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(04:00):
insurance and employee benefits, all with year round support for
you and your team. At supershort dot com, you can
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policy into play in English so you can see what's
covered on what's not, Plus a business value calculator so
you could estimate what your business is worth so you
know what actually needs protecting. Go to supershore dot com
slash buck one superagency, one powerful platform, all your policies
(04:23):
in one place. Go to supershort dot com slash buck
that's supershort dot com slash buck paid for by Supershore
Insurance Agency LLC, a licensed insurance agency. All right back
to Iran on the likely pathways forward, giving where things
stand with the negotiations with Trump and the ongoing military conflict,
looking at the military realities and running capabilities, and American
(04:43):
domestic politics and global energy stakes, here are the three
most plausible scenarios as I see it. Number one, A
sharp but limited exchange followed by pressure de escalation, pressure
de escalation. That's the most likely situation. The United States
has already delivered a significant blow to Iran's Iran's anti
shipping and air defense posture near the Strait. Iran has
(05:06):
shown it can still fire missiles at regional US targets,
but has so far avoided a full closure of Hormuz
or strikes on major oil infrastructure. Both sides may now
step back from the brink. The US has demonstrated resolve
and restored deterrens on shipping. Iran has shown it retained
some retaliatory capacity. Quiet back channels, possibly through Oman Cutter
(05:27):
or others, could produce a new narrower understanding focused on
keeping the straight open in exchange for a pause in strikes,
oil prices could stabilize here, maybe in the mid seventies
instead of a continued spike upwards. This is the ugly
but manageable outcome if DC and Tehran both agree they
(05:49):
don't want a wider war right now. So this is
essentially the Washrints repeat approach, meaning that strikes okay, talks
will happen, oil calms down, talks don't get where Trump
needs them to be. More strikes now. There is a
(06:10):
question as to how many times you can go through
that cycle before the American voter tires of it and
there is a decision or that there is a consensus
reach that this is not sustainable politically here at home,
especially going into the midterms. But the wash Rens repeat
in the straight of Hormuz is the likeliest, at least
(06:32):
I think for at least another cycle or two strikes, talks,
talks breakdown, more strikes we've already because we've already seen this.
We're really on the third or fourth iteration of that already.
That's one pathway. Pathway number two a sustained US pressure campaign.
(06:53):
So this is if Iran continues probing or attempts to
reassert control over the Strait through further attacks on ship.
The United States could move to a more sustained and
consistent and persistent campaign. This would involve repeated strikes on
ier GC, naval assets, missile production sites, possibly energy export
(07:14):
infrastructure such as carg Island. If we're moves threats intensify.
Goal would be to raise the cost of to the
Iranian regime until it accepts stricter limits on its ability
to threaten international commerce and of course on the nuclear program.
This path keeps the conflict more contained than a full
regional war, but would produce higher and more volatile oil
(07:38):
prices for weeks or months. Also carries the risk of
Iranian proxy responses or miscalculation. Given the current rhetoric from
the White House and the clear interest in protecting energy flows,
this is incredible middle path. So this is instead of
just a few days of strikes and then hey let's talk,
we give them strikes for a week, week or two,
(08:01):
maybe longer than that to really ramp up the pressure.
So think of this almost like the first path, but
on steroids, right, just a stronger version of it to
really degrade capabilities that the Iranians have further than they
already are so more US air strikes, more pressure, put
the knee on the throat here of the Iranian military
(08:25):
even more, and hope that that creates a change in behavior.
And then there is pathway three, which is major escalation
and a broader conflict. So this is the highest risk
and lowest probability outcome, but we should talk about it.
If Iran decides that the regime survival requires demonstrating, it
(08:47):
can close or severely disrupt the straight or if it
launches larger attacks on US or allied targets, or if
Trump just decides that his patience is totally gone, it
could expand strikes significantly deeper into Iran, and not just
against military but now against high value economic targets. This
is where when Trump talks about things like taking out
(09:10):
desalinization plants, which of course is for water, for water
for them to be able to use and household and
agriculture and drinking and everything else. Desalinization plants, power plants.
Now you're talking about going after core Iranian infrastructure. They
short of a massive devastating effect on the Iranian population
(09:32):
and their day to day quality of life and their
safety as well. With all of this so this would
be a really big escalation. Now Trump has talked about this,
so this is not completely off the table at all,
but I think this is the lowest likelihood. I'm not
sure the Iranians find this to be credible as an option,
(09:52):
which may mean that Trump decides to do it in
part to establish it as credible and show that he's
not messing around here. So they could be in a sense,
goading him into it by wrongly calling his bluff because
it's not a bluff. You could also see a greater
involvement here for Israel because the Iranians, if they intensify
(10:18):
their missile barrages or they try to let's say, activate
proxies Hezbola, et cetera, you could have Israel decide that
they're going to get more involved in the direct targeting
of individuals, probably in the leadership cadre inside of Iran.
And in this scenario, people will recognize that a more
(10:39):
devastating and expanded American military strike package against Iran would
disrupt oil even further because you'd be hitting oil infrastructure
that could see oil spike above one hundred dollars, which
would mean global markets facing serious supply shocks and the
possibility of proxies broadening the conflict out in a rock
(11:03):
Serrie Elebanon and Yemen. Although I think that's even less
likely than some of these other things we've talked about here,
it's still possible. This would be the most dangerous path though,
for sure, and would require a sustained political will in
Washington and perhaps the willingness to suffer midterm losses as
a result, And just saying this is possible. This option
(11:25):
might be held until after we could see a combination
of these different pathways. This option could be held until
after the midterms, perhaps because then the Republicans wouldn't face
so much in the way of backlash from voters on this.
But all of this is within the realm of the possible.
I'm not saying I expect any of this, but this
(11:46):
is what could happen the next forty eight hours or so.
Are going to tell us a lot. Are there any
new Iranian major Iranian attacks on shipping? Do the US
strikes continue tonight Wednesday night, or do they pause? If
that's the case, we're probably going to look at pathway
one here, which is strikes negotiation. They'll go on for
(12:09):
a while and then we have more strikes than more negotiation.
But if Iran really creates more threats in the Strait
scenario two, I think becomes much more likely, a much
more plausible pathway. The core issue is simple and goes
to the underlying strategy of the United States. Cannot allow
(12:31):
the world the whole an important energy corridor like this hostage.
We also cannot allow Ron to get a nuclear weapon,
according to Trump. So there's a red line that has
been tested here and enforced with military force, and how
Iran chooses to respond to the coming days is going
to determine if this is just a short, sharp demonstration
(12:51):
of American resolve or the beginning of a longer and
more dangerous chapter in this saga. Let's all hope that
this is going to peter out and that we no
longer find ourselves wondering if this conflict with Iran is
(13:12):
going to continue or not. Let's hope, Let's pray shield
Hime
Let's dive into the Iran situation with all of the
latest as up to the minute as I can get
it to you here. So last forty eight hours to
set the background here, the fragile ceasefire between the US
and Iran collapsed. As you know, we are now back
into active military exchanges. This is not a slow burn.
(00:21):
It is a rapid re escalation driven by Iranian attacks
on commercial shipping in the straight of war Moos and
a forceful response from President Trump, which is no surprise,
of course to anyone. Here's what's unfolded of the last
few days. On July seventh, Iran struck at least three
commercial vessels transitting the Straight of hor Moos. Reports indicate
(00:43):
Woman's a Katari liquefied natural gas tanker that caught fire
along with other flag tankers. This was a direct violation
of the understandings reached in the mid June memorandum, which
had produced a pause, albeit a shaky one, in the fighting.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps effectively tested whether the United
(01:04):
States would tolerate renewed harassment of international shipping. Washington's answer
came quickly and hard. US Central Command launched a new
round of precision strikes on July seventh, hitting more than
eighty targets inside Iran. The strikes focus on degrading Iran's
capability to threaten this strait, air defense systems, command and
(01:26):
control modes, coastal radar sites, anti ship missile batteries, and
more than sixty IRGC fast attack boats. Sentcom described it
as a powerful response and released video of the operation.
The United States also immediately revoked the temporary license that
had allowed Iran to sell oil. President Trump, attending the
NATO semitin Turkey, made the political line crystal clear, the
(01:49):
ceasefire is over. He stated that the US attacked very
powerfully last night and signal that further action is on
the table. If Iran continues to threaten shipping now, there
could be strikes tonight. Trump has said strikes are likely tonight.
We'll see. Iranian forces have responded by launching missiles and
drones toward US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, claiming strikes
(02:11):
on dozens of sites and downing a US drone. Air
raid sirens sounded in those countries. Oil markets, of course,
have reacted immediately to this. Brent krude surge several dollars
in a single session, is now trading in the high
seventies to low eighty dollars low eighties dollar range with
strong upward momentum, and there are other sharp gains in
(02:34):
other markets. The revocation of the Iranian oil sales waiver
and fresh fears of Hormuz disruption have reintroduced a serious risk.
Premium traffic through the Strait of Horn Moves, which had
been slowly recovering after the June agreement, is again under
severe strain. Some maritime trackers are showing sharply reduced transits
(02:55):
and effective constraints. Iran is once again as certain control
and warning vessels to use it designates the strait remains
the world's most critical energy choke point. Roughly twenty percent
of global seaborn oil normally moves through it. Any sustained
closure high risk environment sends immediate shockwaves through energy prices
and supply chains. So, as I sit here on the
(03:17):
evening of July eighth with you, that's where it currently stands.
Where is it going next? What are the likely paths forward?
What happens now? I'll address that with you in a second.
Our sponsor here is super Sure. Let me tell you something.
When you sign your insurance policy, A lot of brokers
treat that like the finish line, handshake, commission done, then
you may not hear from them again until it's time
(03:38):
for renewal. But your business runs all year, shouldn't The
people that are in charge of your policy super sure,
my friends, they are the best. So if you're a
company with more than twenty five employees where neither the owner,
CFO or HR manager it can be too complex and
just buy a policy online. Supersure is a super agency
built for you, licensed in every state for your business,
(04:00):
insurance and employee benefits, all with year round support for
you and your team. At supershort dot com, you can
access tools like fine print facts, which translates your current
policy into play in English so you can see what's
covered on what's not, Plus a business value calculator so
you could estimate what your business is worth so you
know what actually needs protecting. Go to supershore dot com
slash buck one superagency, one powerful platform, all your policies
(04:23):
in one place. Go to supershort dot com slash buck
that's supershort dot com slash buck paid for by Supershore
Insurance Agency LLC, a licensed insurance agency. All right back
to Iran on the likely pathways forward, giving where things
stand with the negotiations with Trump and the ongoing military conflict,
looking at the military realities and running capabilities, and American
(04:43):
domestic politics and global energy stakes, here are the three
most plausible scenarios as I see it. Number one, A
sharp but limited exchange followed by pressure de escalation, pressure
de escalation. That's the most likely situation. The United States
has already delivered a significant blow to Iran's Iran's anti
shipping and air defense posture near the Strait. Iran has
(05:06):
shown it can still fire missiles at regional US targets,
but has so far avoided a full closure of Hormuz
or strikes on major oil infrastructure. Both sides may now
step back from the brink. The US has demonstrated resolve
and restored deterrens on shipping. Iran has shown it retained
some retaliatory capacity. Quiet back channels, possibly through Oman Cutter
(05:27):
or others, could produce a new narrower understanding focused on
keeping the straight open in exchange for a pause in strikes,
oil prices could stabilize here, maybe in the mid seventies
instead of a continued spike upwards. This is the ugly
but manageable outcome if DC and Tehran both agree they
(05:49):
don't want a wider war right now. So this is
essentially the Washrints repeat approach, meaning that strikes okay, talks
will happen, oil calms down, talks don't get where Trump
needs them to be. More strikes now. There is a
(06:10):
question as to how many times you can go through
that cycle before the American voter tires of it and
there is a decision or that there is a consensus
reach that this is not sustainable politically here at home,
especially going into the midterms. But the wash Rens repeat
in the straight of Hormuz is the likeliest, at least
(06:32):
I think for at least another cycle or two strikes, talks,
talks breakdown, more strikes we've already because we've already seen this.
We're really on the third or fourth iteration of that already.
That's one pathway. Pathway number two a sustained US pressure campaign.
(06:53):
So this is if Iran continues probing or attempts to
reassert control over the Strait through further attacks on ship.
The United States could move to a more sustained and
consistent and persistent campaign. This would involve repeated strikes on
ier GC, naval assets, missile production sites, possibly energy export
(07:14):
infrastructure such as carg Island. If we're moves threats intensify.
Goal would be to raise the cost of to the
Iranian regime until it accepts stricter limits on its ability
to threaten international commerce and of course on the nuclear program.
This path keeps the conflict more contained than a full
regional war, but would produce higher and more volatile oil
(07:38):
prices for weeks or months. Also carries the risk of
Iranian proxy responses or miscalculation. Given the current rhetoric from
the White House and the clear interest in protecting energy flows,
this is incredible middle path. So this is instead of
just a few days of strikes and then hey let's talk,
we give them strikes for a week, week or two,
(08:01):
maybe longer than that to really ramp up the pressure.
So think of this almost like the first path, but
on steroids, right, just a stronger version of it to
really degrade capabilities that the Iranians have further than they
already are so more US air strikes, more pressure, put
the knee on the throat here of the Iranian military
(08:25):
even more, and hope that that creates a change in behavior.
And then there is pathway three, which is major escalation
and a broader conflict. So this is the highest risk
and lowest probability outcome, but we should talk about it.
If Iran decides that the regime survival requires demonstrating, it
(08:47):
can close or severely disrupt the straight or if it
launches larger attacks on US or allied targets, or if
Trump just decides that his patience is totally gone, it
could expand strikes significantly deeper into Iran, and not just
against military but now against high value economic targets. This
is where when Trump talks about things like taking out
(09:10):
desalinization plants, which of course is for water, for water
for them to be able to use and household and
agriculture and drinking and everything else. Desalinization plants, power plants.
Now you're talking about going after core Iranian infrastructure. They
short of a massive devastating effect on the Iranian population
(09:32):
and their day to day quality of life and their
safety as well. With all of this so this would
be a really big escalation. Now Trump has talked about this,
so this is not completely off the table at all,
but I think this is the lowest likelihood. I'm not
sure the Iranians find this to be credible as an option,
(09:52):
which may mean that Trump decides to do it in
part to establish it as credible and show that he's
not messing around here. So they could be in a sense,
goading him into it by wrongly calling his bluff because
it's not a bluff. You could also see a greater
involvement here for Israel because the Iranians, if they intensify
(10:18):
their missile barrages or they try to let's say, activate
proxies Hezbola, et cetera, you could have Israel decide that
they're going to get more involved in the direct targeting
of individuals, probably in the leadership cadre inside of Iran.
And in this scenario, people will recognize that a more
(10:39):
devastating and expanded American military strike package against Iran would
disrupt oil even further because you'd be hitting oil infrastructure
that could see oil spike above one hundred dollars, which
would mean global markets facing serious supply shocks and the
possibility of proxies broadening the conflict out in a rock
(11:03):
Serrie Elebanon and Yemen. Although I think that's even less
likely than some of these other things we've talked about here,
it's still possible. This would be the most dangerous path though,
for sure, and would require a sustained political will in
Washington and perhaps the willingness to suffer midterm losses as
a result, And just saying this is possible. This option
(11:25):
might be held until after we could see a combination
of these different pathways. This option could be held until
after the midterms, perhaps because then the Republicans wouldn't face
so much in the way of backlash from voters on this.
But all of this is within the realm of the possible.
I'm not saying I expect any of this, but this
(11:46):
is what could happen the next forty eight hours or so.
Are going to tell us a lot. Are there any
new Iranian major Iranian attacks on shipping? Do the US
strikes continue tonight Wednesday night, or do they pause? If
that's the case, we're probably going to look at pathway
one here, which is strikes negotiation. They'll go on for
(12:09):
a while and then we have more strikes than more negotiation.
But if Iran really creates more threats in the Strait
scenario two, I think becomes much more likely, a much
more plausible pathway. The core issue is simple and goes
to the underlying strategy of the United States. Cannot allow
(12:31):
the world the whole an important energy corridor like this hostage.
We also cannot allow Ron to get a nuclear weapon,
according to Trump. So there's a red line that has
been tested here and enforced with military force, and how
Iran chooses to respond to the coming days is going
to determine if this is just a short, sharp demonstration
(12:51):
of American resolve or the beginning of a longer and
more dangerous chapter in this saga. Let's all hope that
this is going to peter out and that we no
longer find ourselves wondering if this conflict with Iran is
(13:12):
going to continue or not. Let's hope, Let's pray shield
Hime
Host
Buck Sexton
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