March 9, 2026 • 12 mins
Donald Trump calls for Iran’s unconditional surrender as U.S. and Israel intensify their air campaign against the Iranian regime. Buck Sexton breaks down the scale of the strikes, the impact on Iran’s military infrastructure, and what could come next if the regime collapses. Buck outlines several possible outcomes, including a coup within Iran’s security forces, a monarchist restoration led by Reza Pahlavi, or internal reform from within the current system, while explaining why U.S. boots on the ground are unlikely.
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcastle make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
wherever you get your podcasts. President Trump demand's unconditional surrender
from Iran as the air campaign of US and Israeli
strikes intensifies. We are walloping them. That much is clear.
(00:34):
Secretary of warheg Seth has laid out that there is
first of all, no similar capability anywhere on the planet
to what the US and Israel have been able to
bring to bear. Here. We are not even losing a
single plane and destroying the entire military infrastructure of a
nation of ninety million people in a pretty big country
(00:55):
that had all kinds of access to Russian and Chinese
and North Korean rocketry and surface to air missiles, air
defense technology. And the Iranian regime is just being militarily
at least defanged day after day. So Trump is now
saying the Molas have to just have an unconditional surrender
(01:15):
and then this all stops. The big question here is
who will take over if we get to that point. Now,
this is likely to go on for weeks, This could
go on for months. That is very much still an
open question. I think, based on the pace and scale
of these strikes, the Iranian regime will cease to be
(01:38):
in a position to assert meaningful control over large swaths
of the country. Now, in the northwestern corner of Iran
and near Kermanshah, there's a Kurdish pocket. It's about fifteen
percent of the population of Iran is Kurdish, and they
will be able to stabilize that. And this will be
(02:00):
at least one area that I think we don't have
to have very much concern over, even if the government
ceases to function in a security sense in Iran, which
is what we want. But then we have to get
into the other options. What else can happen here? And
there are really a few different pathways. The one that
is most likely is some kind of coup within the
(02:23):
existing security forces. I'll break these down into three options. Right,
you have a coup within the existing security forces. This
is the most likely because the military's institutional power, they're
already are internal divisions, and the strikes have eliminated key leaders.
So there's a leadership vacuum that we've created within the
(02:43):
structure as it exists. And so the IRGC, the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps or the conventional army, which they call
the Arteche could be the primary force here. You basically
have somebody from inside he goes, all right, we're going
to get rid of the bumps who have been in charge.
We're gonna stop trying to fight against America and fight
against Israel, and we're just going to say enough is enough.
(03:06):
This pragmatic group would have to have control over much
of the regular army, sees government buildings and media outlets
and say it's essentially a restoration of order and part
of a transition process. So that would be this is
the most likely one. This is the one that we
would like, that we would hope would happen. And the
(03:29):
external pressure that we're putting on the regime in Iran
is meant to bring this about, I think most likely.
And the big pitfall here rather the huge challenges you
want to avoid factional infighting that then just turns into
something more like a civil war, right different groups within
or shooting at each other and fighting over power. Another
(03:51):
option that people will be talking about, I think is
probably less likely, is a monarchist restoration led by Rezaplavian supporters.
So you have the exiled Crown Prince Rezapa Lavi. He
has symbolic appeal amongst the Iranian nationalists and the diaspora
community of Iran, and there are some protesters who are
(04:12):
also supportive. We've seen that how many. That's tougher. But
if you're looking for a pre nineteen seventy nine throwback government,
if you will, the SHAW is obviously something that you
could look to. And with these protests that have been
happening on the streets, if they were to combine with
security forces defecting to them, let's say, defecting to some
(04:34):
of these factions that are pro SHAW, then maybe there
could be the usage of social media and essentially a
popular uprising from the streets but also from the outside,
supported by the diasperg groups and by those who want
the Shaw and power. And the idea I think would
be he comes back as a transitional figurehead to establish
(04:57):
a constitutional monarchy or a secular democracy of some kind,
and there'd have to be a national referendum. You'd want
to make this look legitimate, and this would require some
international backing, but I think that would be easy for
the regional players to throw or had into And yeah,
who's going to oppose democracy and self rule for the
people of Iran. So that's another option, and uh the
(05:21):
then finally there's insiders like reformist clerics or IRGC commanders
who come forward and push and basically say, look, we surrender,
but we want to work with the system that we
have here with obviously negotiation steps with with the US,
(05:43):
with Israel, probably just with the US in the early days,
and and try to get to some form of national election.
This is I think the least likely version of it,
but it's essentially the system itself says we've taken out
all our leaders, we give up. We don't need to
storm the government palaces and everything else. We're We're willing
(06:06):
to play ball. It's like it's like Iran Kray's uncle
with the people who are in truck I think is
very unlikely. But if you have economic collapse and just
fatigue with all the strikes, this this could happen. So
those are some of the ways that you're certainly not
going to have some external force. I don't think you're
going to have US boots on the ground there. I
(06:27):
think that's a terrible idea. Maybe in a very limited
capacity like we had in Syria at some point to
sort of direct air strikes. But no, we're not going
to be policing the streets of Tehran with nineteen year
olds from from Kansas and from Maine and from Oregon.
You know, we're not going to be doing that. I
think the administration recognizes that's a disaster politically, a disaster
(06:52):
from a national security perspective. So this is where we
are with the're on right now, continuing air strikes and
trying to form some kind of opposition and transition the
Iranian nation state into a whole new era. It's high stakes.
Let's talk Venezuela next, and then also little Cuba do
(07:13):
in a bit of a deep dive in a national
security here. But gold. Look at the price of oil
and look at how instability makes that go up. You
know what also goes up when people are worried about
things gold? You know what goes up when there's money
printing gold. Gold makes sense And Birch Gold Group is
who I trust for your gold purchases. See if holding
gold inn a tack shelter retirement account is right for you,
(07:35):
Birch Gold Group can help you with that. They can
help you convert an existing IRA or four to oh
one k into an IRA and gold. Just text my
name buck to ninety eight ninety eight ninety eight to
receive your free info kit on Gold. Text my name
Buck to ninety eight ninety eight ninety eight. Birch Gold
Group has an A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau,
tens of thousands of happy customers. Let Birch Gold Group
(07:55):
help you diversify with gold so you too can have
peace of mind. Birch Gold Group, my friends, check them out.
And now let's talk Venezuela. And now Venezuela I think
is a very positive story right now. After the capture
of Maduro and wife, by the way, didn't get as
much attention in the media, but Cilia Flores from Caracas,
they were extra diuded to the US. They faced Narco
(08:16):
terrors and charges. Currently, Vice President Delcia Rodriguez is the
interim vice president. She was sworn in Supreme Court of
Venezuela has backed this a lot of the Maduro cabinet
and even the ruling party there, and the US has said, look,
we're going to work with you on this, okay. So
they already have the infrastructure in place. The political infrastructure.
(08:40):
And now this means that some opposition figures have been
sidelined here, like Machado and Gonzales. But this is I
think the smarter play right now. They should be those
opposition figures I'm sure are going to be able to
run in the next election. But instead of throwing things
into chaos right now in Venezuela, it's let's stabilize things.
(09:02):
And the big news that came out this week is
the US and Venezuela have agreed to re establish full
diplomatic and common relations the first time since twenty nineteen.
And you've already had a Secretary Bergham meet with Rodriguez
in Caracas to talk about mining access and resource deals.
And Venezuela has signed agreements for gold sales to the
(09:23):
US oil sector, privatization reforms to get more investment, so
they realize, get the trade going, get the oil flowing,
get the money transactions happening, and everything starts to become
more possible more, you know, the future starts to look brighter.
There's also been an amnesty process that thirty two hundred
people political prisoners, a lot of them have been released
(09:45):
in Venezuela. So there's no immediate presidential elections plan. The
focus is really on stability right now in Venezuela. But
this is a this is moving the way you'd wanted
to move for the benefit of Venezuelan people. You know.
They we're basically just removed the bad Apple and it
(10:09):
doesn't look like we have to you know, we have
to do more than that. Right now, we can work
with what's there and that I think could lead us
in a very positive direction. We'll talk Cuba here in
a second, but that's also a place that's obviously getting
a lot of attention from the administration. All right, look,
(10:30):
switch to pure talk. It just makes sense. Time to
save some money, time to align yourself on company with
your values, and that's what switching to pure Talk lets
you do. And pure Talk is my wireless company. They
give you unlimited talk, text, and plenty of data for
just twenty five bucks a month, with no contract, no
cancelation feed, no overseas customer service if you ever need help.
I've used the customer service before just to check in
(10:51):
on some things. They're great, they're US based, they're super helpful.
Now's the time for you to make the switch. Go
to Puretalk. Dot com slash buck, you'll say fifty percent
off your first month. That's puretalk dot com slash Buck
and switch to a wireless company that shares your values.
Puretalk America's wireless company. And now we have a Cuba
(11:12):
which is in the midst of a US fuel blockade,
so no more oil imports from Venezuela to prop them up,
no more commis helping Commis with that stuff. And Mexico
is getting US pressure to stop the supplying Cuba with oil.
So they have huge fuel shortages, blackouts rolling up to
twenty hours a day in some places, canceled flights, and
(11:33):
tourism services paralyzed. Me Cuba is a just in a
really rough state right now. They've had all kinds of
shortages of food and medicine. Inflation is rampant. GDP is
contracting dramatically, and Trump has said that the regime is
going to fall soon, and Secretary of State Rubio has
even said, you know, maybe we need to do some
kind of a quote friendly takeover. So US officials are
(11:56):
thinking about criminal charges against Cuban leaders, so they want
regime change this year in Cuba. And this is this
is great to see if it happens. The Cuban regime
is disgusting and despotic and has ruined what is otherwise
a beautiful country with wonderful people. So another place here
(12:16):
where Trump is playing a high stakes game, but I
think so far it's playing it very well. We could
have a different, a different government in twenty twenty six
than we had in twenty twenty five, and a much
better one aligned with global norms and America and not
American values per se, but just sort of more normal
civilizational values, rule of law values in Iran, in Venezuela,
(12:40):
and in Cuba, which would be an incredible transformation of
the global national security situation. Have effects on China, have
effects on Russia, have effects on all these other all
these other national security challenges that we have. So it
could be great. Hopefully it'll be great. And that is
(13:03):
our deep dive national security brief. Talk to you soon,
Shield time.
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcastle make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
wherever you get your podcasts. President Trump demand's unconditional surrender
from Iran as the air campaign of US and Israeli
strikes intensifies. We are walloping them. That much is clear.
(00:34):
Secretary of warheg Seth has laid out that there is
first of all, no similar capability anywhere on the planet
to what the US and Israel have been able to
bring to bear. Here. We are not even losing a
single plane and destroying the entire military infrastructure of a
nation of ninety million people in a pretty big country
(00:55):
that had all kinds of access to Russian and Chinese
and North Korean rocketry and surface to air missiles, air
defense technology. And the Iranian regime is just being militarily
at least defanged day after day. So Trump is now
saying the Molas have to just have an unconditional surrender
(01:15):
and then this all stops. The big question here is
who will take over if we get to that point. Now,
this is likely to go on for weeks, This could
go on for months. That is very much still an
open question. I think, based on the pace and scale
of these strikes, the Iranian regime will cease to be
(01:38):
in a position to assert meaningful control over large swaths
of the country. Now, in the northwestern corner of Iran
and near Kermanshah, there's a Kurdish pocket. It's about fifteen
percent of the population of Iran is Kurdish, and they
will be able to stabilize that. And this will be
(02:00):
at least one area that I think we don't have
to have very much concern over, even if the government
ceases to function in a security sense in Iran, which
is what we want. But then we have to get
into the other options. What else can happen here? And
there are really a few different pathways. The one that
is most likely is some kind of coup within the
(02:23):
existing security forces. I'll break these down into three options. Right,
you have a coup within the existing security forces. This
is the most likely because the military's institutional power, they're
already are internal divisions, and the strikes have eliminated key leaders.
So there's a leadership vacuum that we've created within the
(02:43):
structure as it exists. And so the IRGC, the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps or the conventional army, which they call
the Arteche could be the primary force here. You basically
have somebody from inside he goes, all right, we're going
to get rid of the bumps who have been in charge.
We're gonna stop trying to fight against America and fight
against Israel, and we're just going to say enough is enough.
(03:06):
This pragmatic group would have to have control over much
of the regular army, sees government buildings and media outlets
and say it's essentially a restoration of order and part
of a transition process. So that would be this is
the most likely one. This is the one that we
would like, that we would hope would happen. And the
(03:29):
external pressure that we're putting on the regime in Iran
is meant to bring this about, I think most likely.
And the big pitfall here rather the huge challenges you
want to avoid factional infighting that then just turns into
something more like a civil war, right different groups within
or shooting at each other and fighting over power. Another
(03:51):
option that people will be talking about, I think is
probably less likely, is a monarchist restoration led by Rezaplavian supporters.
So you have the exiled Crown Prince Rezapa Lavi. He
has symbolic appeal amongst the Iranian nationalists and the diaspora
community of Iran, and there are some protesters who are
(04:12):
also supportive. We've seen that how many. That's tougher. But
if you're looking for a pre nineteen seventy nine throwback government,
if you will, the SHAW is obviously something that you
could look to. And with these protests that have been
happening on the streets, if they were to combine with
security forces defecting to them, let's say, defecting to some
(04:34):
of these factions that are pro SHAW, then maybe there
could be the usage of social media and essentially a
popular uprising from the streets but also from the outside,
supported by the diasperg groups and by those who want
the Shaw and power. And the idea I think would
be he comes back as a transitional figurehead to establish
(04:57):
a constitutional monarchy or a secular democracy of some kind,
and there'd have to be a national referendum. You'd want
to make this look legitimate, and this would require some
international backing, but I think that would be easy for
the regional players to throw or had into And yeah,
who's going to oppose democracy and self rule for the
people of Iran. So that's another option, and uh the
(05:21):
then finally there's insiders like reformist clerics or IRGC commanders
who come forward and push and basically say, look, we surrender,
but we want to work with the system that we
have here with obviously negotiation steps with with the US,
(05:43):
with Israel, probably just with the US in the early days,
and and try to get to some form of national election.
This is I think the least likely version of it,
but it's essentially the system itself says we've taken out
all our leaders, we give up. We don't need to
storm the government palaces and everything else. We're We're willing
(06:06):
to play ball. It's like it's like Iran Kray's uncle
with the people who are in truck I think is
very unlikely. But if you have economic collapse and just
fatigue with all the strikes, this this could happen. So
those are some of the ways that you're certainly not
going to have some external force. I don't think you're
going to have US boots on the ground there. I
(06:27):
think that's a terrible idea. Maybe in a very limited
capacity like we had in Syria at some point to
sort of direct air strikes. But no, we're not going
to be policing the streets of Tehran with nineteen year
olds from from Kansas and from Maine and from Oregon.
You know, we're not going to be doing that. I
think the administration recognizes that's a disaster politically, a disaster
(06:52):
from a national security perspective. So this is where we
are with the're on right now, continuing air strikes and
trying to form some kind of opposition and transition the
Iranian nation state into a whole new era. It's high stakes.
Let's talk Venezuela next, and then also little Cuba do
(07:13):
in a bit of a deep dive in a national
security here. But gold. Look at the price of oil
and look at how instability makes that go up. You
know what also goes up when people are worried about
things gold? You know what goes up when there's money
printing gold. Gold makes sense And Birch Gold Group is
who I trust for your gold purchases. See if holding
gold inn a tack shelter retirement account is right for you,
(07:35):
Birch Gold Group can help you with that. They can
help you convert an existing IRA or four to oh
one k into an IRA and gold. Just text my
name buck to ninety eight ninety eight ninety eight to
receive your free info kit on Gold. Text my name
Buck to ninety eight ninety eight ninety eight. Birch Gold
Group has an A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau,
tens of thousands of happy customers. Let Birch Gold Group
(07:55):
help you diversify with gold so you too can have
peace of mind. Birch Gold Group, my friends, check them out.
And now let's talk Venezuela. And now Venezuela I think
is a very positive story right now. After the capture
of Maduro and wife, by the way, didn't get as
much attention in the media, but Cilia Flores from Caracas,
they were extra diuded to the US. They faced Narco
(08:16):
terrors and charges. Currently, Vice President Delcia Rodriguez is the
interim vice president. She was sworn in Supreme Court of
Venezuela has backed this a lot of the Maduro cabinet
and even the ruling party there, and the US has said, look,
we're going to work with you on this, okay. So
they already have the infrastructure in place. The political infrastructure.
(08:40):
And now this means that some opposition figures have been
sidelined here, like Machado and Gonzales. But this is I
think the smarter play right now. They should be those
opposition figures I'm sure are going to be able to
run in the next election. But instead of throwing things
into chaos right now in Venezuela, it's let's stabilize things.
(09:02):
And the big news that came out this week is
the US and Venezuela have agreed to re establish full
diplomatic and common relations the first time since twenty nineteen.
And you've already had a Secretary Bergham meet with Rodriguez
in Caracas to talk about mining access and resource deals.
And Venezuela has signed agreements for gold sales to the
(09:23):
US oil sector, privatization reforms to get more investment, so
they realize, get the trade going, get the oil flowing,
get the money transactions happening, and everything starts to become
more possible more, you know, the future starts to look brighter.
There's also been an amnesty process that thirty two hundred
people political prisoners, a lot of them have been released
(09:45):
in Venezuela. So there's no immediate presidential elections plan. The
focus is really on stability right now in Venezuela. But
this is a this is moving the way you'd wanted
to move for the benefit of Venezuelan people. You know.
They we're basically just removed the bad Apple and it
(10:09):
doesn't look like we have to you know, we have
to do more than that. Right now, we can work
with what's there and that I think could lead us
in a very positive direction. We'll talk Cuba here in
a second, but that's also a place that's obviously getting
a lot of attention from the administration. All right, look,
(10:30):
switch to pure talk. It just makes sense. Time to
save some money, time to align yourself on company with
your values, and that's what switching to pure Talk lets
you do. And pure Talk is my wireless company. They
give you unlimited talk, text, and plenty of data for
just twenty five bucks a month, with no contract, no
cancelation feed, no overseas customer service if you ever need help.
I've used the customer service before just to check in
(10:51):
on some things. They're great, they're US based, they're super helpful.
Now's the time for you to make the switch. Go
to Puretalk. Dot com slash buck, you'll say fifty percent
off your first month. That's puretalk dot com slash Buck
and switch to a wireless company that shares your values.
Puretalk America's wireless company. And now we have a Cuba
(11:12):
which is in the midst of a US fuel blockade,
so no more oil imports from Venezuela to prop them up,
no more commis helping Commis with that stuff. And Mexico
is getting US pressure to stop the supplying Cuba with oil.
So they have huge fuel shortages, blackouts rolling up to
twenty hours a day in some places, canceled flights, and
(11:33):
tourism services paralyzed. Me Cuba is a just in a
really rough state right now. They've had all kinds of
shortages of food and medicine. Inflation is rampant. GDP is
contracting dramatically, and Trump has said that the regime is
going to fall soon, and Secretary of State Rubio has
even said, you know, maybe we need to do some
kind of a quote friendly takeover. So US officials are
(11:56):
thinking about criminal charges against Cuban leaders, so they want
regime change this year in Cuba. And this is this
is great to see if it happens. The Cuban regime
is disgusting and despotic and has ruined what is otherwise
a beautiful country with wonderful people. So another place here
(12:16):
where Trump is playing a high stakes game, but I
think so far it's playing it very well. We could
have a different, a different government in twenty twenty six
than we had in twenty twenty five, and a much
better one aligned with global norms and America and not
American values per se, but just sort of more normal
civilizational values, rule of law values in Iran, in Venezuela,
(12:40):
and in Cuba, which would be an incredible transformation of
the global national security situation. Have effects on China, have
effects on Russia, have effects on all these other all
these other national security challenges that we have. So it
could be great. Hopefully it'll be great. And that is
(13:03):
our deep dive national security brief. Talk to you soon,
Shield time.
Host
Buck Sexton
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