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May 1, 2026 14 mins

With Iran locked in a high-stakes oil standoff driving global prices to four-year highs and Cuba spiraling deeper into an energy collapse, U.S. pressure is squeezing both regimes as tensions escalate.

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Speaker 1 (00:11):
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
wherever you get your podcasts. A soon an update on
everything with the Iran blockade, the siege of Iran's oil economy,
Trump saying things are getting close to the end for

(00:32):
the Mullah's. The Mullah's saying, not so fast. That's not
the case. Let's make sense to some of this, now,
shall we. First of all, Trump coming right out of
the gate, saying, all they have to do is cry.

Speaker 2 (00:44):
Uncle prepared to maintain the blockade. Could that give us
over more months?

Speaker 3 (00:49):
Well, the blockade is genius. Okay, the blockade has been
one hundred percent full of proof. It shows how good
our navy is. I can tell you that nobody's gonna
play games. We have the greatest military in the world,
and I built much of it during my first term
and we've been building it since. And the greatest anywhere
in the world. Nobody even close. And you see that,

(01:11):
whether it's Venezuela, which and they have a good military
in Venezuela. But it was over in one day. It
was actually over in about forty eight minutes. Ran the
same thing. I mean militarily, we've wiped them out. They
have no military left. It's all the navies at the
bottom of the sea. The air force is never going
to fly again. We've got an amazing military. Now they

(01:36):
have to cry uncle. That's all they have to do
is just say we give up, we give up. That
their economy is really in trouble. It's a dead economy.

Speaker 1 (01:48):
Yeah, he says, the blockade has been one hundred percent
full proof. It is the case that the Iranians have
tried to run the blockade. They've tried to false flagships.
I knew they would do this, they said this on radio.
It's the obvious move, right because the Americans are letting
some ships go through.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
So I think they took some old Iraqi ships.

Speaker 1 (02:07):
And tried to pass them off as see being Iraqi,
not Iranian. That didn't work, So this is now a
waiting game. The price of oil is the highest, or
was the highest earlier earlier today than it was at
any time since the Russian Russian invasion of Ukraine in

(02:29):
twenty twenty two. So yeah, there's a little bit of
an oil price spike. But here's where we are now.
I don't see how the Iranians get out of this situation.
Now they're claiming they're putting out very defiant stuff in
their own internal communications and propaganda from what at least

(02:49):
we can see. And you know, now we have, by
the way, the UAE left Opek, which is interesting.

Speaker 2 (02:58):
So the UAE they pulled out of Opire, what do
you think about. I think it's great.

Speaker 3 (03:01):
I mean, I think it's great. I know him very well,
Mohammed and very smart, and you probably maybe once AGO's
own way, that's a good thing, I think for ultimately
it's a good thing for getting the price of guests down,
getting oil down, getting everything down. They have it all.

(03:22):
He's a great leader actually, so no, I'm okay. They're
having some problems in Opek.

Speaker 2 (03:30):
You know, this is changing the dynamics in the Middle East.
The old thinking was.

Speaker 1 (03:36):
The Arab countries that have oil. Not all Arab countries
have oil, like Yemen, but the Arab countries that have
oil are in this incredibly powerful position to effectively dictate
global oil prices, and with that they have a very
important geopolitical and geostrategic weapon. But it's less certainly less

(03:59):
potent than it used to be, and now with the
UAE pulling out of Opek, it means that they're going
to be I think, more amenable to West Earn interests
and less aligned with that block of Arab countries. So yes,
I think that this situation with Iran right now is

(04:25):
really status quo. Day to day, we have Iranian ships
bottled up. They can't get through a lot of other
ships are still unwilling to go through to run the
straight if you will, and that means that we have
to see how much pain they can take before they're
willing to end this standoff. Oil prices, like I said,

(04:48):
four year high. Trump just figures we can outlast them,
and we definitely can economically and from a national security
perspective outlast the Iranians politically. Does this start to bite
back at the Trump administration and therefore with that the
Republicans going to the midterms, Not yet, I don't think.

(05:09):
I think that the that hasn't happened. It is worthwhile
to note that they also are not going to go
to Islamabad anymore for these negotiations. It's a long flight
to get nowhere, and this really takes us to.

Speaker 2 (05:24):
This is where the rubber meets the road.

Speaker 1 (05:26):
The Iranians are not going to make the concessions that
we want about there that the Trump administration wants about
their nuclear program, They're not going to do it, and
they're also not going to make a whole range of other.

Speaker 2 (05:43):
Other concessions. Members of it.

Speaker 1 (05:44):
This is from Washington Post. Members of Iran security establish
and believe they've emerged victorious from the war, and they
don't support conceding on key issues like the nation's right
to enrich uranium. Iran's leaders have said they do not
want a nuclear weapon. Aha, I know it's preposterous, but
they have insisted the country has a right to a
civilian nuclear program, including the right to enrich nuclear fuel,

(06:05):
which could pave the way for a weapons program. Negotiators
had more time to maneuver on the key issues, including enrichment,
during the first round of talks with the US, but
after those talks failed and since the blockade, Iranian officials
have yielded to pressure from the military and hardliners in
their country to deprioritize negotiations. The military forces don't want

(06:26):
to lose their achievements, the officials, said. Iranian officials. What
the United States could gain in those talks they cannot
gain again. So Iran, this is really interesting if you
believe this. If you believe this, the Iranians think they
have the upper hand, and the Trump administration certainly thinks

(06:48):
it has the upper hand. So that's a tough place
for anyone to think negotiations are going to be very fruitful.

Speaker 2 (06:55):
Right.

Speaker 1 (06:56):
They think they've got us right where they want us,
and we think we've got them right where we want them. Now,
maybe that's just internal propaganda from Iran. Maybe they're sweating bullets.
Maybe the whole thing is about to collapse. That's all possible,
But you're not seeing anything that even looks vaguely. We
have destroyed so much of their military capacity and their

(07:18):
nuclear capacity, and you're not seeing any conciliation from the
Iranian side at all at all, really, and they're not
the straight up horor moves is not open the way
that it was before. So I wonder what Trump thinks
the full implosion is going to look like and how
long it will take for us to get there. There's

(07:40):
also going to be a lot of suffering, I think
for the Iranian people overall, broadly speaking, ninety million of
them if this continues on what if there isn't another
possible government in waiting. I don't really know where this goes.
And I will say this too, even if we get
a concession from the Iranians that they can never have nukes, fine,

(08:03):
what if they abandon all that and they say fine, fine, fine,
then we loosen up and they can they can send
their oil out again and all the rest of it.
Does anyone really think they're going to keep to that promise?
It's a promise with a gun to their head. Would
you keep a promise with a gun to your head?
Now you're not the Iranian molocracy, but you know what
I mean. So we're hoping to get what out of

(08:25):
this at this point, unconditional surrender effectively from the Iranians
that will prevent them from ever getting a nuke. Even
if we get the unconditional surrender, I'm not convinced that
that means that they will abide by this and they
will never try to get a nuke.

Speaker 2 (08:40):
That's just how I see it.

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(09:24):
Agency LLC, a licensed insurance agency. Okay, what's going on
in Cuba? We're talking about Aron there for a second.
What is happening in Cuba. I'm gonna have to get
some people to uh come on the show, either this
show or in the radio show to talk about this
soon because.

Speaker 2 (09:44):
They're they're really out of options.

Speaker 1 (09:47):
This is from a it's some it's uh United Nations
Resident Coordinator. So the a UN guy in Cuba. That
mean this guy is going to be more commi than
the communists. But here's what he's saying, four months into
Cubas this is in the Guardian, Cuba's deepening energy crisis
consequences are no longer abstract. They're in the visible. They

(10:08):
are visible in the rhythm of daily life. Streets fall
silent before night has fully set in hospital skill back operations,
small businesses closed due to lack of supplies. A dawn
exhaustion shows on people's faces after long nights without electricity.
But the most serious toll is measured not an inconvenience,
but in health. Tens of thousands have been surgeries have
been postponed, Pregnant women face the regular access to prenatal care,

(10:30):
et cetera.

Speaker 2 (10:31):
Et cetera.

Speaker 1 (10:31):
Said, doctors and nurses are striving to hold the system together.
Cuba's broader economic fragility, shaped by tightening external contraint constraints
and limited domestic resources, has been compounded by this energy shock.
So he's saying, this is a massive humanitarian crisis that

(10:51):
is unfolding in Cuba, and the obvious, the obvious way
that this is supposed to go now, is America and
Trump are supposed to loosen up on them because that
would be nice.

Speaker 2 (11:07):
That would be very nice. But here's the other way
this could go.

Speaker 1 (11:12):
The Trump administration can continue the maximum pressure campaign against
Cuba until the Cuban regime cries uncle and says, all right,
we're done. Why do the people in Cuba who are
in charge of things, they're Communist Party officials, they're different,

(11:34):
you know, people in charge of police and military. Why
do they think they have a right to be in
charge in that country? Because they are, is the answer.
Because Mike makes right in Cuba, because that's always the
way communist view things. If they can seize power and
stay in power, well then that's all they need to do.

(11:55):
There's no rationale beyond that. There's certainly no morality beyond that.
And I think people have had enough of this, at
least externally, and I would assume inside of Cuba as
well well. So we have Iran running out of time
if you believe the reporting, before it's economy implodes, and

(12:20):
you have Cuba running out of time before it's economy
implodes so badly that it's in the midst of a
full blown humanitarian crisis. Can't keep the lights on, can't
do medical care. There's a very simple way to end
all this, though, people in charge in Cuba say, all right, America,
what do you want? That's it the way they're framing this.

(12:44):
It's meant to be America is supposed to concede or
to stop doing what it's doing. But why can't the
Cuban regime? Why isn't the Cuban regime responsible for this?
Very straightforward? They do not have the cards, as Trump says,
and their population is suffering. They can end that suffering.
In fact, they can give the people of Cuba better
lives than they have ever had in generations by finally

(13:12):
relinquishing power. The dictatorship needs to come down, needs to end.
But you see, to dictators, their power is always more
important than their people, so they don't want to play
that game. Meanwhile, in Venezuela, which is willing to play
ball a little bit, it's not perfect.

Speaker 2 (13:32):
Long way from.

Speaker 1 (13:32):
It, flights from Miami where I live opened up to Caracas,
capital of Venezuela.

Speaker 2 (13:38):
Again, so this is.

Speaker 1 (13:41):
Really a case of do these governments Iran, Venezuela, Cuba
want their people to have a future or not. In
the case of Cuban regime, very stubborn, those tyrants, very stubborn. Look,
inflation just chips away at the dollar, and that's obvious,

(14:01):
look at history. Meanwhile, gold keeps going up as inflation
ships away at that dollar. In fact, over twenty years,
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Speaker 2 (14:52):
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