May 22, 2026 • 12 mins
Nearly 30 years after the 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue aircraft over international waters, the U.S. Department of Justice has unsealed an indictment charging Raul Castro with conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals, murder, and destruction of aircraft in connection with the deaths of four people. In this episode, Buck Sexton breaks down the significance of the case, the Trump administration’s renewed pressure campaign on Cuba, and the possible paths forward for the island’s political future.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
So big news for the Trump administration and what's happening
next with Cuba. Actually just got my haircut by a
bunch of Cuban Americans this morning, and they're certainly very
dialed into the situation. You'll see this. If you're watching
this on the YouTube, please go subscribe to my YouTube channel.
But ladies and gentlemen, we have now the United States
(00:22):
Department of Justice unsealing an indictment charging Raoul Castro, who
was ninety four years old and the man who has
ruled Cuba from the shadows since after his brother Fidel
passed away, with conspiracy to kill US nationals, multiple counts
of murder and destruction of aircraft. So this comes directly
(00:42):
from the nineteen ninety six shootdown of two unarmed brothers
to the rescue planes over international waters. This was an
act of aviation piracy. It was murder. Four men died
that day, three American citizens and one US resident, Carlos
Costa armand Alejandre Junior, Mario de la Penna, and Pablo Morales.
(01:05):
These were humanitarian heroes searching for rafters fleeing tyranny and
Cuban MiG fighter planes under Raoul's direct command. As head
of the armed forces, blew them out of the sky,
totally helpless planes in international airspace. For thirty years, justice
was delayed on this. Today, under President Trump, it is delivered.
(01:27):
So this indictment is not symbolic theater. It is part
of a deliberate maximum pressure strategy that Trump administration has
executed since January twenty twenty five. President Trump reversed the
Obama Biden appeasement era, those failed policies that flooded Cuba
with tourism dollars and remittances, while the regime jailed dissonance
and exported doctors as slave labor. Instead, we have an
(01:48):
energy blockade, no more Venezuelan oil after Maduro's removal, tariffs
on any nation shipping fuel to Havana, Titan, sanctions on
the military owned enterprises that control six seventy percent of
the Cuban economy, visa bands and designations that isolate Cuban
officials as complicit in this repression. Secretary of State markar Rubio,
(02:09):
whose family knows the pain of exile firsthand, has been
crystal clear on this. Cuba's economy is broken, It's government
can't fix it, and dramatic change is the only path forward.
So the goal here, my friends, is political and economic liberalization.
That means privatization, foreign investment, a free internet, human rights,
and really just a post Castro Cuba that buys American
(02:32):
energy and respects its people. The regime already in Cuba
is reeling as we know. We got nationwide blackouts, fuel shortages,
mass protests that of course are just repressed with thuggish violence.
Raoul's indictment piles legal, moral, and diplomatic pressure on top
of that economic vice. So now the big question what
(02:54):
happens next? I'm going to break down for you now
four plausible scenarios grounded in the realities of Cuban politics,
and of course taking into account US leverage and the
historical patterns of what hasn't has not worked here, I'm
gonna break them down for you in just a moment.
But first from our sponsor, Birch Gold Group. When there
are supply chain issues for commodities prices searge. You see
(03:16):
this with oil, and guess what it's true of gold too,
And now why are people buying up gold? I don't know,
forty trillion dollars in US debt central banks all over
the world, and certainly our own our own government know
that gold can't be printed, and so they're buying up
gold and that drives the price higher. So if you've
been thinking about gold that never moved your savings into
physical gold, Birch Gold Group is who I trust to
(03:36):
help you. Now. Through May twenty ninth, Birch Gold is
giving first time gold buyers the rebable up to ten
thousand dollars on qualifying purchases. Text my name Buck the
number ninety eight, ninety eight, ninety eight to see if
you qualify for a first time gold buyer rebate of
up to ten thousand dollars. Again, text Buck to ninety
eight ninety eight ninety eight today. All right, the different
pathways here with the Cuban regime. Let's walk through a
(03:58):
few of them. One a negotiated economic deal with limited
political reform. This is the maybe most likely near term path.
I'd give this a fifty percent probability. So the regime
led by Miguel Diaz Canal has is still influenced by
Rol Caster's inner circle, though in the military he finally says, okay,
(04:21):
we give facing collapse. Remember this is one option with
the blackouts. The empty shelves, defections of some of the elites.
They sit down for a Trump style deal. In exchange
for phase sanctions relief and resumed oil flows, perhaps routed
through US approved channels. Cuba agrees to privatize some state enterprises,
(04:43):
allow more US investment and tourism and agriculture, loosen Internet controls,
and release a tranche of political prisoners. Diz Canal stays
as a figurehead. The military keeps its economic fiefdoms, but
opens them to American partners. So this really mirrors Trump's
first term approach and his Venezuela playbook, minus, of course,
(05:03):
the dramatic mission in the middle of the night to
grab Aduro, although we'll get to that. But this is
pressure that yields pragmatism. Raoul's indictment gives the US a
powerful bargaining chip they can offer to drop or delay
extradition demands in return for verifiable steps. Cuba's governed by
the Way has historically survived by tactical retreats at IT,
(05:25):
but with China and Russia stretch thin, Havana has very
few alternatives right now. So I would say we could
see this happen in just a matter of the next
three to six months. Okay, that's one option. Let's look
at option two, regime implosion and then a managed transition.
This is a high impact scenario, a little less likely
but still possible, maybe a twenty five percent probability. Sustained
(05:48):
energy starvation plus the symbolic gut punch of Raoul's indictment
accelerates internal fractures. Here the Cuban military and security services,
already stretch thin, are going to face loyalty tests, will
swell blackouts, trigger ongoing riots. Key generals or provincial leaders
defect or negotiate directly with the US, and so Raoul
(06:09):
castro at ninety four and indicted becomes a liability, and
his death or incapacitation could trigger a major fight, a
succession throwdown, if you will, chaos after he passes. So
the US quietly supports a soft landing here exile negotiations
for passage for top figures, technocratic interim government, rapid elections,
(06:32):
and massive American aid and investment package tied to free
market reforms. So this would echo Eastern Europe in maybe
nineteen eighty nine, where you had an economic crisis plus
a loss of a patron here in Venezuela external pressure,
plus you Guantanamo Bay, Gitmo is a US anchor and
(06:53):
drone Intel has already shown us that Cuba's asymmetric options
are extremely limited here, So this is I think pretty possible,
not super possible. And then we have option three hardline
entrenchment and proxy escalation. So this is just essentially Cuba.
(07:13):
The regime just hangs on and just suffers and suffers.
The regime doubles down diaz Canal and remaining castro A
loyalists rally around nationalism. They blame, of course Yankee aggression
and lean harder on Russia. Russia and China are now
their most important patrons. Iran to somendergree two to get drones,
advisors and smuggling roots to try to bypass the US blockade.
(07:35):
The repression intensifies, more arrests, internet blackouts, possible emigration waves,
and whatever hybrid warfare the communists in Cuba can concoct.
Raoul's indictment is spun as a declaration of war justifying
these emergency measures. So Cuba has survived in bargoes before,
and unfortunately that is something we have to take into
(07:57):
account here but post Maduro Venezuela limits Cuba's options here.
They don't have the nearby lifeline economically and for energy
purposes they did before, so this is something that this
would be tough. Maybe Cuba can pull this off, but
it's unlikely. Before I get into the final option, which
is the one where things go boom, perhaps in the
middle of the night, or some of our extremely skilled
(08:20):
operators Delta Tier one, maybe Seal Team six goes in
and knock on the door, perhaps some flash bangs to
show some of these communist scumbags in Cuba who's really
calling the shots. We'll get to that in a second.
Our sponsor here is super Short. How many brokers does
it take to ensure your business? If you're like most
business owners, the answer is too many, multiple policies, multiple applications,
(08:43):
and no clear view of how it all fits together,
and when questions come up, it's not easy to get
the clarity you need. But super Shore changes that one
broker for all your business insurance back by a team
that works with you year round, not just at renewal.
And if you ever stared at a policy wondering what
it covers, Supershore has a fine print facts tool that
will translate legal jargon into plan English. Supershore is an
incredible company for all the business folks out there. If
(09:05):
you've got a business, you need insurance, you need Supershore.
Go to supershore dot com. Get a full report on
your current policies with no obligation. Find out if you're
over insured, under insured, or somewhere in between. Go to
supershore dot com. Supershore dot com one one powerful platform,
all your policies in one place, paid for by Supershot
Insurance Agency LLC, a license insurance agency. Now, the one
(09:28):
of you think you have been waiting for the kinetic approach.
If you will the Maduro option, we send a bunch
of badasses in with M four's and maybe some kind
of sonic weapon. Wipe out all the bodyguards. Remember there
were Cuban bodyguards in Venezuela around Maduro, though not the
first rodeo here. Take out whoever is trying to use
force to stop us from arresting indicted Raoul Costro and
(09:54):
anyone else around him. Kinetic option. So people have said,
what other what if the Cuban regime deploys drones? Against
US assets or does something to trigger this. I don't
think they're going to do that. That would be just insane.
We might decide to go in with guns though, guns blazing,
so to speak. We also might put though military infrastructure,
targeted strikes, cyber operations, perhaps some limited support for armed opposition,
(10:19):
although I think that's unlikely. But going to get the
senior level folks at the top of the communist hierarchy here,
and I mean going to get them, like sending in
our elite operators with you, with whatever air cover whatever
they need to just go into the Presidential Palace or
(10:40):
whatever they call it and grab these guys and bring
them to the US where they get to sit and
rotten federal prison for the rest of whatever their life
is going to be. That I think is the option here.
And also, you know, some of them might just get
waxed so to speak, if they decide that they're going
to be part of taking up arms against our guys.
That could happen too. So I think the carrots and
(11:02):
sticks here, or as they would say in Spanish plata
e plomo, which I think means lead or silver, is
very clear. The Trump administration is telling the people who
have held Cuba hostage for all these decades and still
do to this day. We own your ass like we're
coming for you if we have to. This is not
(11:23):
gonna go well for you, and you're either gonna end
up in prison or dead, or you can give up
running this Cuban mafia state and start to treat the
people of your island like human beings and give them
some freedom and some basic rights and voting, and then
then we can start to play ball and make things
better for you. It's brilliant strategy. I certainly hope that
(11:46):
it works, and I don't think Trump is messing around
on this one. I don't think Mark or Rubia of the
Secretary of State's messing around either. I think he sees
this as critical because it's the right thing to do,
and it's a smart thing to do as well. We
don't need some islands from the coast of Florida. It's
a pretty big island too. We don't need some island
to be an unsinkable aircraft carrier of communism and anti
(12:07):
American aggression forever. I think we're done with this, so
we'll see how long the commies can float, so to speak.
Thanks for staying through the show. Here, shield high,
So big news for the Trump administration and what's happening
next with Cuba. Actually just got my haircut by a
bunch of Cuban Americans this morning, and they're certainly very
dialed into the situation. You'll see this. If you're watching
this on the YouTube, please go subscribe to my YouTube channel.
But ladies and gentlemen, we have now the United States
(00:22):
Department of Justice unsealing an indictment charging Raoul Castro, who
was ninety four years old and the man who has
ruled Cuba from the shadows since after his brother Fidel
passed away, with conspiracy to kill US nationals, multiple counts
of murder and destruction of aircraft. So this comes directly
(00:42):
from the nineteen ninety six shootdown of two unarmed brothers
to the rescue planes over international waters. This was an
act of aviation piracy. It was murder. Four men died
that day, three American citizens and one US resident, Carlos
Costa armand Alejandre Junior, Mario de la Penna, and Pablo Morales.
(01:05):
These were humanitarian heroes searching for rafters fleeing tyranny and
Cuban MiG fighter planes under Raoul's direct command. As head
of the armed forces, blew them out of the sky,
totally helpless planes in international airspace. For thirty years, justice
was delayed on this. Today, under President Trump, it is delivered.
(01:27):
So this indictment is not symbolic theater. It is part
of a deliberate maximum pressure strategy that Trump administration has
executed since January twenty twenty five. President Trump reversed the
Obama Biden appeasement era, those failed policies that flooded Cuba
with tourism dollars and remittances, while the regime jailed dissonance
and exported doctors as slave labor. Instead, we have an
(01:48):
energy blockade, no more Venezuelan oil after Maduro's removal, tariffs
on any nation shipping fuel to Havana, Titan, sanctions on
the military owned enterprises that control six seventy percent of
the Cuban economy, visa bands and designations that isolate Cuban
officials as complicit in this repression. Secretary of State markar Rubio,
(02:09):
whose family knows the pain of exile firsthand, has been
crystal clear on this. Cuba's economy is broken, It's government
can't fix it, and dramatic change is the only path forward.
So the goal here, my friends, is political and economic liberalization.
That means privatization, foreign investment, a free internet, human rights,
and really just a post Castro Cuba that buys American
(02:32):
energy and respects its people. The regime already in Cuba
is reeling as we know. We got nationwide blackouts, fuel shortages,
mass protests that of course are just repressed with thuggish violence.
Raoul's indictment piles legal, moral, and diplomatic pressure on top
of that economic vice. So now the big question what
(02:54):
happens next? I'm going to break down for you now
four plausible scenarios grounded in the realities of Cuban politics,
and of course taking into account US leverage and the
historical patterns of what hasn't has not worked here, I'm
gonna break them down for you in just a moment.
But first from our sponsor, Birch Gold Group. When there
are supply chain issues for commodities prices searge. You see
(03:16):
this with oil, and guess what it's true of gold too,
And now why are people buying up gold? I don't know,
forty trillion dollars in US debt central banks all over
the world, and certainly our own our own government know
that gold can't be printed, and so they're buying up
gold and that drives the price higher. So if you've
been thinking about gold that never moved your savings into
physical gold, Birch Gold Group is who I trust to
(03:36):
help you. Now. Through May twenty ninth, Birch Gold is
giving first time gold buyers the rebable up to ten
thousand dollars on qualifying purchases. Text my name Buck the
number ninety eight, ninety eight, ninety eight to see if
you qualify for a first time gold buyer rebate of
up to ten thousand dollars. Again, text Buck to ninety
eight ninety eight ninety eight today. All right, the different
pathways here with the Cuban regime. Let's walk through a
(03:58):
few of them. One a negotiated economic deal with limited
political reform. This is the maybe most likely near term path.
I'd give this a fifty percent probability. So the regime
led by Miguel Diaz Canal has is still influenced by
Rol Caster's inner circle, though in the military he finally says, okay,
(04:21):
we give facing collapse. Remember this is one option with
the blackouts. The empty shelves, defections of some of the elites.
They sit down for a Trump style deal. In exchange
for phase sanctions relief and resumed oil flows, perhaps routed
through US approved channels. Cuba agrees to privatize some state enterprises,
(04:43):
allow more US investment and tourism and agriculture, loosen Internet controls,
and release a tranche of political prisoners. Diz Canal stays
as a figurehead. The military keeps its economic fiefdoms, but
opens them to American partners. So this really mirrors Trump's
first term approach and his Venezuela playbook, minus, of course,
(05:03):
the dramatic mission in the middle of the night to
grab Aduro, although we'll get to that. But this is
pressure that yields pragmatism. Raoul's indictment gives the US a
powerful bargaining chip they can offer to drop or delay
extradition demands in return for verifiable steps. Cuba's governed by
the Way has historically survived by tactical retreats at IT,
(05:25):
but with China and Russia stretch thin, Havana has very
few alternatives right now. So I would say we could
see this happen in just a matter of the next
three to six months. Okay, that's one option. Let's look
at option two, regime implosion and then a managed transition.
This is a high impact scenario, a little less likely
but still possible, maybe a twenty five percent probability. Sustained
(05:48):
energy starvation plus the symbolic gut punch of Raoul's indictment
accelerates internal fractures. Here the Cuban military and security services,
already stretch thin, are going to face loyalty tests, will
swell blackouts, trigger ongoing riots. Key generals or provincial leaders
defect or negotiate directly with the US, and so Raoul
(06:09):
castro at ninety four and indicted becomes a liability, and
his death or incapacitation could trigger a major fight, a
succession throwdown, if you will, chaos after he passes. So
the US quietly supports a soft landing here exile negotiations
for passage for top figures, technocratic interim government, rapid elections,
(06:32):
and massive American aid and investment package tied to free
market reforms. So this would echo Eastern Europe in maybe
nineteen eighty nine, where you had an economic crisis plus
a loss of a patron here in Venezuela external pressure,
plus you Guantanamo Bay, Gitmo is a US anchor and
(06:53):
drone Intel has already shown us that Cuba's asymmetric options
are extremely limited here, So this is I think pretty possible,
not super possible. And then we have option three hardline
entrenchment and proxy escalation. So this is just essentially Cuba.
(07:13):
The regime just hangs on and just suffers and suffers.
The regime doubles down diaz Canal and remaining castro A
loyalists rally around nationalism. They blame, of course Yankee aggression
and lean harder on Russia. Russia and China are now
their most important patrons. Iran to somendergree two to get drones,
advisors and smuggling roots to try to bypass the US blockade.
(07:35):
The repression intensifies, more arrests, internet blackouts, possible emigration waves,
and whatever hybrid warfare the communists in Cuba can concoct.
Raoul's indictment is spun as a declaration of war justifying
these emergency measures. So Cuba has survived in bargoes before,
and unfortunately that is something we have to take into
(07:57):
account here but post Maduro Venezuela limits Cuba's options here.
They don't have the nearby lifeline economically and for energy
purposes they did before, so this is something that this
would be tough. Maybe Cuba can pull this off, but
it's unlikely. Before I get into the final option, which
is the one where things go boom, perhaps in the
middle of the night, or some of our extremely skilled
(08:20):
operators Delta Tier one, maybe Seal Team six goes in
and knock on the door, perhaps some flash bangs to
show some of these communist scumbags in Cuba who's really
calling the shots. We'll get to that in a second.
Our sponsor here is super Short. How many brokers does
it take to ensure your business? If you're like most
business owners, the answer is too many, multiple policies, multiple applications,
(08:43):
and no clear view of how it all fits together,
and when questions come up, it's not easy to get
the clarity you need. But super Shore changes that one
broker for all your business insurance back by a team
that works with you year round, not just at renewal.
And if you ever stared at a policy wondering what
it covers, Supershore has a fine print facts tool that
will translate legal jargon into plan English. Supershore is an
incredible company for all the business folks out there. If
(09:05):
you've got a business, you need insurance, you need Supershore.
Go to supershore dot com. Get a full report on
your current policies with no obligation. Find out if you're
over insured, under insured, or somewhere in between. Go to
supershore dot com. Supershore dot com one one powerful platform,
all your policies in one place, paid for by Supershot
Insurance Agency LLC, a license insurance agency. Now, the one
(09:28):
of you think you have been waiting for the kinetic approach.
If you will the Maduro option, we send a bunch
of badasses in with M four's and maybe some kind
of sonic weapon. Wipe out all the bodyguards. Remember there
were Cuban bodyguards in Venezuela around Maduro, though not the
first rodeo here. Take out whoever is trying to use
force to stop us from arresting indicted Raoul Costro and
(09:54):
anyone else around him. Kinetic option. So people have said,
what other what if the Cuban regime deploys drones? Against
US assets or does something to trigger this. I don't
think they're going to do that. That would be just insane.
We might decide to go in with guns though, guns blazing,
so to speak. We also might put though military infrastructure,
targeted strikes, cyber operations, perhaps some limited support for armed opposition,
(10:19):
although I think that's unlikely. But going to get the
senior level folks at the top of the communist hierarchy here,
and I mean going to get them, like sending in
our elite operators with you, with whatever air cover whatever
they need to just go into the Presidential Palace or
(10:40):
whatever they call it and grab these guys and bring
them to the US where they get to sit and
rotten federal prison for the rest of whatever their life
is going to be. That I think is the option here.
And also, you know, some of them might just get
waxed so to speak, if they decide that they're going
to be part of taking up arms against our guys.
That could happen too. So I think the carrots and
(11:02):
sticks here, or as they would say in Spanish plata
e plomo, which I think means lead or silver, is
very clear. The Trump administration is telling the people who
have held Cuba hostage for all these decades and still
do to this day. We own your ass like we're
coming for you if we have to. This is not
(11:23):
gonna go well for you, and you're either gonna end
up in prison or dead, or you can give up
running this Cuban mafia state and start to treat the
people of your island like human beings and give them
some freedom and some basic rights and voting, and then
then we can start to play ball and make things
better for you. It's brilliant strategy. I certainly hope that
(11:46):
it works, and I don't think Trump is messing around
on this one. I don't think Mark or Rubia of the
Secretary of State's messing around either. I think he sees
this as critical because it's the right thing to do,
and it's a smart thing to do as well. We
don't need some islands from the coast of Florida. It's
a pretty big island too. We don't need some island
to be an unsinkable aircraft carrier of communism and anti
(12:07):
American aggression forever. I think we're done with this, so
we'll see how long the commies can float, so to speak.
Thanks for staying through the show. Here, shield high,
Host
Buck Sexton
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