Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:11):
You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast. Let make
sure you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app
or wherever you get your podcasts. So, is the ceasefire
with Iran a big win for the Trump administration? Is
it a loss? Is it somewhere in between? Well, my
first answer is we'll see. I don't think it's clear
(00:35):
yet whether it's a win or a loss. I do
know that there are some aspects of this that are concerning,
and there are some ways in which this is very
much gone according to plan for the administration. But let's
break this down. Let's have this conversation now, and we'll
see where my analysis is in a week or two.
(00:56):
We've been told that as of today, this ceasefire goes
into effect. Iran will let ships pass through the straight
off horror moves and and there's a lot going on here.
First of all, what is supposed to happen from here
(01:17):
on out. There's a negotiation that will take place for
two weeks. As part of that negotiation, the Iranians have
put forward a ten point plan that is farcical from
the perspective of the United States. Now, maybe that's just
a negotiating ploy fine, But why would they put forward
something that I think America or the Trump administration is
(01:41):
unlikely to meet them on a single of their deal points,
or at least maybe only one or two. They want
the right to enrich uranium. They want the ability to
essentially operate the Straight of Horn moves like it's their
own private little lake, and they can take tolls on
(02:03):
ships that come in. They are going to keep their nukes,
or rather, I should say the nuclear program such as
it is existing still, the enrich uranian that they have,
are they going to give that up? Let me backtrack
for a second, because there's so many pieces here, And
what happens I think with a lot of people when
(02:24):
they analyze this is they focus on one thing and
they forget about all the things that are around it.
Or because they want to either justify their point of
view that this is a brilliant idea or this is
a terrible idea, they go with whatever will support their
narrative and they leave out all the other pieces. Here's
what I'd say about the Trump Iran war. It's complicated.
It's complicated. I think it was a gamble for President Trump.
(02:47):
I think it's a gamble that has partially paid off,
and I think we don't know the full outcome yet.
There are still some very real risks. I think the
main risks are actually political to Trump, though, So what's
off the board. What's off the board, I think is
catastrophic failure for Trump, meaning a ground invasion, US troops
(03:09):
in harm's way, troops getting killed in action. I don't
see that happening in any context or whatsoever. So Bush
era Iraq war disaster. That's off the table. So that's
a win in a sense, or at least that's a
good thing that's off the table. What was the purpose
(03:29):
of this? We're being told now it wasn't really regime change,
but there was a lot of talk of regime change
early on from the administration, So clearly they wanted regime change,
but maybe that wasn't a top tier goal. And they seem,
based on the reporting around this, particularly the New York
Times piece, they seem to be willing to say that
(03:53):
it's worth it to do this, even if and this
was their feeling, this was Trump's feeling, most importantly, worth
it to do this, even if it does not result
in a regime change situation, As long as we degrade
their military capabilities substantially, particularly with regard to the ballistic
missiles program, and we make it so they can never
(04:15):
get a nuke. I mean Trump has said this over
and over and over again. They Trump has said they
cannot get nukes. He has made this the cornerstone I
think of this whole effort, and here's where I think
(04:36):
the risk remains. Iran is not going to give up
its nuclear material, nor is it going to agree to
the inspections and other processes necessary to make it effectively,
in perpetuity impossible for Iran to get nukes. They're not
going to do that. And so since they're not going
(04:58):
to do that, in my view, what cards do we
have left to play against Iran? Well, we can continue
and this is the threat. Now for two weeks we're
saying we're going to gociate and then we can hit
them again. The thread is that we're going to blow
up more of their stuff. But are we really going
to blow up their civilian infrastructure? I don't think so.
(05:19):
I think Trump recognizes that that's not going to work either.
And also it's it's wrong worth saying that these are
human beings in Iran, and there are a lot of
people there that have nothing to do with the military
or the IRGC or any of this other stuff. There
are children, there are babies, there are elderly people. Like
(05:41):
blowing up the power stations, the water treatment plants here,
I think Trump was blustering about that. I do not
believe he will do that under any circumstances. I'm telling you,
these are the assumptions that I'm working on it. I
do not believe Trump will do that under any circumstances.
So that said, what is the lever that we're going
to pull if we don't get a deal? If Iran
(06:01):
doesn't agree to give up its nuclear ambitions and give
up it's enrich uranium, which I do not I'm under
the assumption that will not happen. What do we do.
We can say, well, we're going to hit them again.
We're going to hit more of their military assets. Okay,
you know what they'll do. They'll shut down the Straight
of Horn moves. Now you can say, oh, but that
will cut off their economic lifeline to the rest of
(06:24):
the world by selling oil. Yes, but how does it
play here at home? If we go into the summer
and we have more air strikes against Iran more instability,
oil price is going up, and with no at that point,
it's very clear there's no guarantee that we're going to
get rid of their nuclear program. And everything we've done
(06:45):
up to this point hasn't gotten rid of the nuclear program,
because we wouldn't be demanding concessions about their nuclear program
if we had already achieved that objective. So again, when
you unpack this piece by piece, this is where I
see all of this going. I don't think that the
Irani I don't think that the fundamental or the foundational
(07:08):
goal of certainty that Iran has no ability or a
ninety nine percent certainty that it cannot go nuclear with
a nuclear weapon. I don't think this process of our
air strikes ends with that happening. The Iranians. People say, oh,
but their people are suffering. They don't care, they don't
(07:29):
have elections. The people in charge don't care how much
suffering the average Iranian is going through. They probably welcome it.
I think it's binding them all together. So in that environment,
what are the options in that environment? What are we
going to do and how much are we willing to
risk a massive wipeout In the midterm elections here in
(07:53):
the US. If all it means is we keep bombing
stuff in Iran, this is war. I think it's costing
a billion dollars a day as well. I've read the
New York Times report, you know what, I'm gonna get
it more into that New York Times report a second.
But again I'm trying. I'm neither. I'm not old. This
is great. Oh this is terrible. I'm this is war.
It's complicated. There are some good aspects of this, there
(08:16):
are some bad aspects of this, and there's still a
lot to be decided. And I'm willing to embrace the
complexity of this situation and not pretend that it's just amazing,
amazing military stuff that we've just kicked ass and everything. Really,
we've gotten everything we want. Why are we still negotiating
if we've gotten everything we want? Because we haven't. So
(08:37):
there's some things here that are just undeniably true and
that I think people don't want to hear. On the
pro and con or the support Trump criticized Trump for
this war side. I think both of them aren't being
fully honest about what's going on here. All right. The
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(09:41):
have to do is go to puretalk dot com slash
buck to switch to pure Talk today. That's puretalk dot
com slash buck. Okay, so now we go to this
New York Times reporting about all the different players here,
jd Vance, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, the General, Kine, Secretary, Hegseth,
all these different players, and it's reporting from essentially inside
(10:01):
the situation room. So someone is the source. We could
all guess who the source is, but or we can
have our guesses, I should say as to who the
source is, but someone is the source. So with all
of that, one thing that comes up very early on
is the widely believed sense that Netanyahu and Israel pushed
(10:22):
very hard for this military action under the premise that
there would be regime change. Now they might have just
been wrong on this one, but I think they were
over selling it, and I think that comes across in
the reporting. I think Israel really wanted us to help
them take out Iran, and it was a better sell.
It was the WMD moment, if you will. It was
(10:44):
a better sell of the administration and to really just
convince it's just a party of one here they need,
which is Trump. To convince Trump of this, they said
we think the Israeli's Netnyahu specifically said we think regime
change is likely. I think that unfortunately that is that
(11:04):
well that has been proven to be untrue. It's certainly
looking untrue, and I think that that's should have been
manifestly untrue from the beginning. So that's going to cause
some problems going forward, because this isn't a war for Israel,
but Israel push for this war. Right. This is where
you get into the nuance. This is where you get
(11:26):
into let's speak honestly about this. Israel wanted this war.
That is that. I think that is a matter of
public record. They're fighting in this war. They clearly wanted
this war. How did they push Trump and therefore the
United States to fight this war alongside them? I think
the regime change claims were perhaps a bit exaggerated in
(11:48):
some degree of self interest with regard to that. Now,
you can never really parse that stuff out, and I
don't think that anyone can force Donald Trump to believe anything.
I think that Trump has wanted to do this for
a long time. I think he's sick of the Iranians
speaking nonsense. But regime change is not happening. And you've
started to hear this, Well, it is a different regime
because it's different people in charge. That's not how this works, Okay,
(12:10):
we mean a different governing ethos in Iran, some kind
of a rule of law, representative democracy, society, or even
just a society that in the interim agrees that it
does not have aggression against Israel and other neighbors and
just wants to create a peaceful and prosperous society without
(12:34):
constantly funding proxy groups and engaging in terrorism all over
the world and all of that. We have not achieved that,
and I don't think we're going to achieve that. So
again I go back to the scoreboard, if you will,
lack for lack of a better way of putting it,
we don't have regime change. I don't think we're going
to get a guarantee of a non nuclear Iran. They
(12:54):
can shut down horror moves. It seems to pressure us
very effectively, which is what has happened here, and they
still have a six hundred thousand man army on the
ground there. They've gotten their surface to air missiles destroyed,
their navy destroyed, their planes destroyed. Okay, but then again,
(13:17):
what are they going to use all that for? Right,
Their big threat, I guess comes from US and from Israel.
So as long as they're not going to be invaded
and their regime stays in place, I think the regime
considers that a win. This is very complex stuff. I
think that Trump rolled the dice on this one, and
I don't think it worked out exactly as he hoped
or anticipated it would. Yet that could change. And I
(13:42):
need someone to explain the fault in my logic here
if they disagree with this, because I can keep hearing, Oh,
but look what we've done to their military. I know
we've absolutely obliterated some aspects of their military, and we've
taken out some of their senior leadership or their absolute
senior leadership, and a big chunk of it. Fine, well,
who's in charge now? Are they better? If the answer
(14:03):
is no, and it looks like they still have a
hold on the country, how much does it really matter
that we killed Kamene? How much does it really matter?
And then if you start to look at things like
what does this do to any sense going forward that
there could be in Iranian uprising against this, I think
those prospects are looking more bleak than ever. In a sense,
(14:25):
if they weren't going to do it when they had
America as their air force, they're not going to do
it in a few years when you've got some Democrat
administration of race communists who don't give a crap what
happens to the Iranian people and think that we're the
bad guys in everything, including all interactions with Iran, and
probably want to distance themselves from Israel and all this.
And you know that's not going to be a better situation.
(14:45):
So we'll see. We've got two weeks here of negotiating.
I think you're going to end this with two weeks
of negotiating that results in a continuation of the ceasefire,
which results in a continuation of the straight of Horne
moves being opened and more talking about deal points, and
will be told through the summer that we're getting closer
and closer to a deal. This is a bit like
(15:07):
what happened with dealing with Putin and Russia. By the way,
we've been to this dance before. But on the core points,
the core concessions, there will be none from Iran. They
will not concede on these things. The only other alternative
I see is they concede and then they just they
break the terms on it down the line. That's possible too,
(15:27):
So I'm I'm coming at this from all angles. If
you think I'm wrong, let me know. But this is
my first rodeo. There's a lot of lessons learned from
Iraq and from the broader Middle East that I think
you can bring to bear on this. All Right, gold
is good. Gold makes sense. Look at the global instability
I'm talking about right now. You know what happens when
(15:49):
things get unstable, when no one feels like the global
economy is on the most solid footing, or a lot
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(16:35):
that's a show in Iran Shield high