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April 10, 2026 16 mins
Ryan Mauro Joins the show to give context to the Iran Conflict
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Have join us right now, the great Ryan Morrow. Ryan,
Welcome to the Chris Baker Show. Hi.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
Hey, it's great to be with you.

Speaker 1 (00:08):
As always, always a pleasure to talk to you, Ryan Morrow.
And I saw the work you did for Glenn Beck
and it says the Iran narrative on X is fake
and who's really behind it? And that's one of the
aspects of this situation we find ourselves in, and that

(00:29):
would be the propaganda side of this. I have not
given a lot of thought to it, but thankfully your
article woke me up. Tell us a little bit about
what's going on here. Sure.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
Well, I'll preface this by saying everyone has to be
humble enough to recognize that you're being influenced by foreign
propaganda manipulation if you use social media, because it is
so easy to manipulate, and you're a human being, and
so any human being is gonna be influenced by the
frequency of what they see, even if they discarded immediately.

(01:03):
So that's important to understanding the impact of what this is.
But this is study I did where I looked at
the about one thousand, actually over one thousand most popular
most viral English language posts on X during the first
two weeks that Operation Epic Fury began, because that's when
people make their impressions, and then usually people make their impression,

(01:25):
not many of them change it. And so I looked
at the first two weeks and what I found was
really a lot worse than what I expected. So, all
the over one thousand most viral posts about Iran in
the war, but I found is that about well over
half of them, even though they're written in English and
primarily directed towards Americans, appeared to come from Americans or

(01:49):
English speakers. But we're actually coming from overseas, either English
speakers overseas or non English speakers overseas. So right there,
having over half of them coming from overseas is troubling.
And then the overwhelming majority of that over fifty percent
of the viral posts coming from overseas were just overwhelmingly negative.

(02:11):
I mean only ten percent were positive. So to put
numbers to that, it was about six hundred foreign language
foreign accounts posting these messages that went viral, and together
they received over six hundred and fifty million views, and
they had almost twenty two million total interactions like reposts, likes,

(02:34):
and replies. So the narrative. I mean that confirms mathematically
that at least on X and I think that translates
to American public opinion, especially including a conservative opinion. I
think it's overwhelmingly negative and sourced from foreign Propaganda's basically.

Speaker 1 (02:57):
So they're trying to they are trying to affect American's
attitudes towards this this mess that they're in correct.

Speaker 2 (03:09):
That's correct, yep.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
And what are I mean, what do some of those
posts say. Are they giving false information as to you
know what's being hit or what's not being hit, or
you know what's effective and what's not effective.

Speaker 2 (03:26):
Yeah, I mean basically the biggest thing now is just
saying that the US lost, which is completely ridiculous. I mean,
if you want me the argument that wasn't successful or
should have been done. Those are separate from saying like, oh,
the US got it's butt kicked. I mean, that's just insane.
But that's attached to broader narratives. And the broader narra

(03:48):
is basically go in one of two directions because they're
trying to hit two different audiences. The one is that
a Zionist conspiracy, deceived bribe forced Trump to launch the war,
and so then that one is kind of meant to
be a little bit more sympathetic to Trump supporters, to

(04:08):
be like Trump had no choice or he was tricked.
It's not that he's an evil son of them, you
know what I mean. And then the second is depicting
it as Trump is evil and the war has no merit,
it is a wag the dog thing because there's evidence
that's been found or is coming out about Jeffrey Epstein
that's gonna make Trump look bad, and his approval ratings

(04:28):
are going down the toilet, and so as a result,
Trump is so evil he was willing to kill a
lot of people, including the American soldiers, for the sake
of his approval ratings and his embarrassment. And so those
are the two main messages coming from the foreign propagandas
who are putting out these English language tweets that are
really having a lot of impact, because what I also

(04:50):
found is that people within the US quote and repost
those posts that are coming from overseas. So the impact
is magne fight even beyond what I just explained to you.

Speaker 1 (05:02):
So then so people cite this as if everything is factual,
and then they just forward it on to other people
who see it and go, oh, well, that's obviously factual.

Speaker 2 (05:14):
Right, So they're convincing it just through repetition rather than merit.
So you see it so many times that even if
you may not you may sell that rhetoric's a little
bit over the top, your instinct is gonna say, oh, well,
I've seen it so often that maybe ten percent that's true.
And so they make it so wild that even that
ten percent makes you think that Operation Epic Theory is

(05:34):
the failure, or that Israel is forcing us into the war,
that Trump is evil, or you know what, one of
these narratives, depending on who they're what they're trying to
infect your mind with.

Speaker 1 (05:46):
Wow, So from what you've been able to determine, what
is the situation in Iran? In other words, how are
things going? And you know, because here's the thing I'll
get is that we're supposedly negotiating who are they negotiating
with in the first place. It seems like every time

(06:07):
you find someone who is supposedly in charge, they're dead
the next day.

Speaker 2 (06:15):
So they're not telling us. A Ram's not telling us,
third parties aren't telling us, and the Trump minstration is
not telling us. He just says regime changes have been completed,
which I mean, frankly, just isn't really true unless you
change the definition, which is what he's doing and saying
there's new leaders that are dealing with are more pragmatic
and smarter. And the degree he is kind of tying

(06:36):
into his own credibility makes me think that you might
actually believe that. And I don't know who we're dealing with,
and I think what is likely a question in the
minds of the Trump administration is regardless what their intelligence
tells on intelligence is sometimes wrong, right, And so you
need to test to see are well the people that
you're talking to if it's a faction, which it clearly

(06:58):
must be. If the Trump ministration isn't eyeing completely, so
it's a certain faction in there, then you've got to
test to see if they have as much power, because
they're going to claim that they control the country, that
they can carry out what they're promising you. How do
you know that that's true. The only way you can
test that is if you have some type of agreement,

(07:18):
whether you plan to stick with it or not. You
have to try something and have them make a decision
and see if they can actually make the regime or
part of the regime enforce that decision, and you see
what happens when the faction you're dealing with goes up
against the faction you're not dealing with and seeing what
the power balance really is. And so I think that's

(07:40):
where we're at with this. Plus also I think Trump
really wants to give the economy a break. I mean,
I think that that is true. So the people that
are saying that a ran economically hurt us enough to
force us into this, I think that's exaggerated, but I
do think there's some truth to it.

Speaker 1 (07:58):
Well as I look at it now, and I'm not
some you know, strategist, but I'm trying to figure out where,
so where do we go from here unless we're gonna
go all out, full scale invasion war, because I mean,
I don't think I've ever seen anyone make a deal

(08:18):
with anyone over there and they stuck to it. So
I'm trying to figure out on what ground do we
even have to be negotiating with these people? What am
I missing here?

Speaker 2 (08:32):
Ryan, Well, there have been agreements in the Middle East
with countries that have been at war with Israel, and
then they stuck to the agreements, and so that there
is a historical the Abraham Accords, Yeah, sure, but the
Iranian regime, as you know, is really very different. So
it's but there's also the question of and you build
this into the agreement. Okay, they're going to violate we

(08:53):
know they're going to violate it. Then what level of
violation are we're willing to put up with? You know,
so you overreach with your agreement and you understand, all right,
so if they violate it, we can deal with maybe
you know, a ten percent, and so let's make sure
we ask for ten percent more than we otherwise would
in order to you know, account for that, so you
don't have to scrap the agreement when a violation does happen.

(09:15):
So there so diplomatically, there are things that you can
do there. But as for what the road ahead is,
I think that we're in the intelligence gathering phase and
I think that there are multiple ways that could play out,
and it would be a mistake of the trou administration
to actually choose a specific plan and then stick to
it and put there credibly on the line, like it's

(09:37):
not polutely popular to do this, and it seems like
you don't know what you're doing, but wait and see.
Approach is the smartest thing here because there are multiple
ways to can play out. You could have a coup
within the country. You could have a civil war. You
can have a situation where this action you're talking to
is powerful but not powerful enough, and so you can
do a Maduro like operation and you fix it that way.

(09:57):
You can have a popular upro There's all these different
ways that could play out, and the good news is
is that there are options for each of those scenarios.
And I'm just hoping that. I mean, it looked like
the next step was probably gonna be invaded in carg
Island or some of these small islands and straight of
poor moves, which that makes a lot of sense. I

(10:18):
understand why people say that that's how you kind of
fix that situation. But lots of unexpected things happen, especially
when you put boots on the ground. And I would
hate for us to, because of economics, put it troops
in harm's way because our wallets are hurting if we
can otherwise, And I understand you can't have America poor

(10:39):
in the economy crash, I understand that, So you want
to fix as soon as possible. But personally for me,
I mean, if if I've got to eat, you know,
like go to the dollar Tree and get my meals
there for the next couple of months in order to
not send American troops on the ground, in order to
fix the situation straight of horror moves, because during that
time period, we can weak the regime enough that if

(11:01):
we do have to do that it's safer for them.
Then sign me up. Just tell me just the American
people may not like you, but just tell them that
that's the sacrifice that you're feeling economically, is that we
can weaken the regime. Stuff we have to send in
troops to see those little islands, it's safer for those troops,
and I think the American people would support it. But

(11:21):
it's but that for some reason, you know, politicians don't
really talk to the American people that way. I don't
like to tell them, Hey, I'm asking you to make
a specific sacrifice and experience the pain. It's always oh,
it's going to get better, or it's not as bad
as you think.

Speaker 1 (11:36):
Yeah, yeah, well I do. Yeah, I recognize that, Oh
it's not that bad. No, it's it's it's stuff's expensive. Yeah,
you know what, Like for example, the wife goes and
gets a court of uh whipping creane five bucks. Never
paid that much for whipping cream before. But if I

(11:57):
got to pay five bucks for whipping cream instead of
having soldiers on boots on the ground, okay, I'll just
drink my coffee black like I normally like it.

Speaker 2 (12:07):
Anyway, bizarre, exactly right.

Speaker 1 (12:10):
Any insight from Iran? Uh, you know, because we hear
some people saying that, well, the Iranian people they are
they love what we're doing and they support us. And
I know you monitor a lot of stuff over there.
Is there any actual uh uh statements or anything from

(12:31):
people in Iran? I know they are very restricted on
what they can do.

Speaker 2 (12:37):
Sure, so we have conflicting reports about Kamani, his son,
the new Supreme leader, because there's he's clearly injured enough
they doesn't want to show his face. Some say he
might be dead, you might be in a coma, he
might be so just figured that he's basically non functional.
But then he puts out these these proclamations in his name,
and some people assume that he's somewhat okay, But it's

(12:59):
not necessarily true because the Taliban Mola Omar was dead
for years and years, right until isis found out that
they were lying about him being alive and putting out
statements in his name when he was actually in the ground,
and then that had come forth and be like yeah, yeah, lying.
So the rig could be doing that. So you don't
even know if the statements that are coming out if

(13:21):
like what are they coming from a position of power.
I mean, there were multiple versions of the seafire that
went out. There's contradictory statements coming out, uh, even in
the past two days about whether the straight upfour moves
is open or not, whether they're they're gonna have a
toll or not. There's all these mixed messages coming in.
So that could be actually a good sign. It could
mean that the regime is kind of unable to coordinate

(13:42):
in the falling apart. One one interesting development I'm not
seeing covered is that ahuiting this video is authentic, but
I suppose it doesn't actually matter if it is or isn't. Uh.
One of the videos that's going around among Iranians and
in the region is a video showing a drive by
shooting of Iran police. The besiege. The ones that go
out and kill protesters, right, And it's in the name

(14:04):
of a group called like Defending the Homeland Homeland Defenses
we've never heard of before. That could be COVID operations
from US the Israeli as it could be genuine.

Speaker 1 (14:13):
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (14:15):
But the fact that that happened, the video got out
past the restrictions and is being widely distributed means there's
something going on internally. I don't know if it's authentically Iranian.
I don't know if it's US, it's US work with
Iranian opposition, but there's interesting things happening.

Speaker 1 (14:31):
Well, you know what I mean To summarize, it just
sounds to me like we really have no clue what's
going on. I mean us the you know, your average
every day yahoos. We we really don't know what's going on.
So who knows. This could be a giant reveal coming
up this weekend or next week or or something. I
have no idea.

Speaker 2 (14:51):
Are you fall flat? Oh? If I had to guess
those an administration probably isn't even sure either way.

Speaker 1 (14:58):
Oh boy? What about you, Ryan? Are you optimistic?

Speaker 2 (15:02):
Oh? Yeah, because I think if you look at the
fundamentals and the trends, it's more of a question of
how bumpy of a ride it is to get to
the brighter future. So I think that things have gotten
as bad as they could possibly get in terms of
the conflict with Iran, the even their ability to threaten
the straight of horror moves. People are making it sound

(15:23):
like a rent. They're saying, oh well, Iran controls are
straight of horror moves now, I'm sorry. Like before they
had the ability to dominate, they just didn't exercise it.
Their ability to threaten the straight of horror moves is
greatly reduced now because they got we hit over eleven
thousand targets. So yeah, they're using their capacity now, but
that doesn't mean that they're stronger. They're actually weaker. They're

(15:45):
just being a little bit more aggressive so that people
say exactly what people are saying, which is, oh man,
we lost they gained something. Not really, they're just using
what little they have left and if we have to,
we'll force it open, you know, you know what.

Speaker 1 (15:59):
I Well, so I just noticed, Ron, it sounds to
me like you really were very careful to choose your
words there when you said how bad they got smoked?

Speaker 2 (16:09):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (16:09):
Right, okay, all right, Ryan, always always a joy to
have you on the big show. So, to summarize, we're
getting a lot of propaganda we should be optimistic, and
no one really knows what's going on except the people
in the room. So I'll take.

Speaker 2 (16:28):
That basically, most of what you think you know is wrong.
You can't trust your own thoughts. The only person you
can trust is Chris Baker.

Speaker 1 (16:38):
So yeah, thanks for coming to rehearsal. Yeah, all right,
take care of Ryan, God blessed man. We'll see you soon.
All right, bye, there he is. That's a great Ryan
Morrow on the Chris Baker Radio program. Ryan always shoots straight.
He shoots straight from the hip.
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