Natty Rally Heats Up: Weather, LNG Exports Drive Bulls

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This is your Daily Natural Gas Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hello and welcome to the Daily Natural Gas Price Tracker. I am Vanessa Clark, here with your up-to-date look at what is happening in the world of natural gas prices and the industry headlines shaping the market on Tuesday, October twenty-first, twenty twenty-five.

Let’s jump right into the numbers. The most recent trading saw natural gas prices continue their bullish run, with front month NYMEX natural gas settling at three dollars and forty-seven cents per million British thermal units. That is up about two and a quarter percent on the day, and marks the highest settlement since early October. According to Trading Economics and FX Empire, this brings the one-month rally to more than twenty-four percent. Prices are now about fifty percent higher than where they stood at this time last year.

So what is behind this big move up? The key drivers have been shifting weather forecasts and increased demand for liquefied natural gas exports. Meteorologists revised their two-week outlook, calling for colder, near-normal temperatures taking hold through early November. This means higher heating demand just as we head into the heart of the traditional gas usage season.

A huge factor has also been stronger overseas demand. LNG exports have climbed to nearly sixteen and a half billion cubic feet per day this month, up from last month and closing in on all-time highs. With U.S. production actually slipping a bit compared to the summer’s record output, these export flows are tightening the supply-demand balance even as storage levels remain relatively healthy.

Let’s talk briefly about storage. Last week’s Energy Information Administration report showed working gas in U.S. storage at three trillion seven hundred twenty-one billion cubic feet. That is a little over four percent higher than the five-year average. While this helps cushion the market and reduce the risk of winter spikes, analysts warn that any bout of significantly colder weather could quickly eat into that surplus.

Zooming out, we are also seeing some major moves in U.S. natural gas power sector investments. According to Enverus Intelligence Research, mergers and acquisitions for natural gas-fired power plants have seen valuations double since last year. The biggest reason: rapidly rising electricity demand from the expansion of data centers plus ongoing grid electrification. This creates long-term support for natural gas as a flexible and affordable fuel for power generation.

Looking overseas, European storage is currently approaching eighty-three percent full, but injection rates have slowed, and there are fresh concerns about how the continent will cope once winter cold fully settles in. This could keep the global LNG market tight, adding another layer of support to U.S. prices.

For those of you following the market closely for investment decisions, business planning, or just trying to understand your winter heating bills, the takeaway is this: right now, natural gas prices are being driven by a combination of tighter supplies, big export flows, and shifting weather forecasts. If cold snaps arrive sooner or stronger than expected, the rally could continue. On the other hand, if a mild start to winter materializes, we could see some retracement in prices, especially since U.S. storage is starting on a solid footing.

That is it for today’s update from the Daily Natural Gas Price Tracker. I am Vanessa Clark. Thank you for joining me. Make sure to subscribe and tune in for tomorrow’s briefing, where I will continue to break down the latest trends, developments, and what matters most for natural gas prices. Stay warm, stay informed, and have a fantastic day!

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