June 9, 2025 • 51 mins
How should we be betting the AFC East & NFC East heading into the 2025 NFL Season? Join Drew Martin and Teddy Covers for The Opening Line Report as we dissect the NFL betting market with the 2025 NFL preseason right around the corner.
Introduction 00:00
Buffalo Bills Team Preview 02:05
Miami Dolphins Team Preview 08:20
New England Patriots Team Preview 13:35
New York Jets Team Preview 18:48
Dallas Cowboys Team Preview 28:20
New York Giants Team Preview 32:30
Philadelphia Eagles Team Preview 37:40
Washington Commanders Team Preview 44:10
Introduction 00:00
Buffalo Bills Team Preview 02:05
Miami Dolphins Team Preview 08:20
New England Patriots Team Preview 13:35
New York Jets Team Preview 18:48
Dallas Cowboys Team Preview 28:20
New York Giants Team Preview 32:30
Philadelphia Eagles Team Preview 37:40
Washington Commanders Team Preview 44:10
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome into the NFL Opening Line Report, episode number two
of twenty twenty five, getting you ready for this season.
We got division previews coming your way.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Here.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
We're doing the AFC East, NFC East. Diane Andrew Martin,
joined as always by Teddy Covers TC. Welcome on Inbuddy,
ready to get after these East divisions.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
So I love it because, you know, looking at mainstream stuff,
there's not much out there right now, there really is.
If you're looking for team previews, this is the place
to come because there's nothing out there.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
So I love having this stuff. I love doing this
prep early.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
You know, we've got eight teams and I'm prepped up
on right now, AFC East, NFC East, and we're going
to talk three things for every team. We're going to
talk starting point, what happened last year, where the organization is,
where the coaching staff is, so what our starting point is,
some of the key stats from last year to think
about what we analyze this year's team. We're going to
talk about all the offseason moves personnel wise, coaching wise,
(00:56):
that sort of thing, and then we'll talk about this
year's schedule and how that's gonna affect our thought processes
about these teams. So yeah, Dred, let's get after it.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
I'm ready. It's June, it's football time.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
And of course all this in lou You know, we're
going each of the next four weeks two divisions every
Monday and Wednesday. July second is the NFL season win
total release. And of course that report one to three
and fifty two since twenty, since two thousand and one,
seventeen and four.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
With the big tickets. It's report. I put a lot
of work into this report. I'm proud of it. Report.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
You should, guys, should get a part of so you
can get it right now. You can already lock in
and get it the minute it's released. Just visit my
page wt dot buzz backslash TC or obviously you sign
up for any season long package, you'll get that report
for free.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
Building the foundation here on the NFL Opening line report.
That's exactly what we're doing, guys. So we're gonna start
off with the AFC East first. Of course, it finished
with the Buffalo Bills being the only team that made
the playoffs last year, and Teddy, I'll tee it up
for you. The Bills thirteen and four. They also went
ten and seven against the spread. They were five and
(02:09):
one in division and including going eight to no at
home during the regular season. But Teddy, I'll throw it
over to you. How are we starting off with the
Buffalo Bills top top of the division last season?
Speaker 3 (02:19):
Well, the Buffalo Bills, and we're gonna start with this
year's winter sitting and eleven and a half heavily juiced
to the over. You make an argument that it's a
MERLCRUIVN of twelve for Buffalo. Eleven and a half minus
won sixty to the over, eleven and a half minus
won fifty five to the over. The Bills the single
highest line team for wins this year. And we'll talk
(02:42):
about why when it comes to schedule for Buffalo. Last year,
the Bills went thirteen and four, twenty twenty three, eleven
and six, thirteen and three and twenty twenty two, eleven
and six and twenty twenty one, thirteen and three and
twenty twenty. So we're talking about a team that each
year this decade has gone, you know, they've made the
(03:02):
playoffs each of the last six years. They've been in
first place each of the last five years. Although it's
worth noting, you know, eleven and six, eleven and six
twice in the last four years. Eleven and six does
not cash over bets, and of course priborly the last
six years. The Bills had won ten games since nineteen
ninety nine. So, you know, Sean McDermott now in his
ninth year as head coach GM Brandon Bean has been
(03:24):
here since two thousand and seven. He's engineered this entire
turnaround for Buffalo. Offense cornet Joe Brady, defense corner Bobby Babage,
both in their second season. The Bills changed coordinators after
the twenty twenty three campaign. On both sides of the football,
both guys that McDermott hired have returned for another year.
(03:45):
The Bills were plus twenty four in turnovers last year,
and if there's one stat that stands out for Buffalo,
that's the stat that says, wow, that's how they won,
you know, thirteen games plus twenty four turnovers.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Now, note how far that is from the rest the league.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
The number two team was plus sixteenth, there were eight turnovers,
better than anyone else. The number three team was plus twelve.
So basically, the Bills were off the charts.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Good when it came to turnover differential, you know.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
So we don't expect a team with a good defense
and an elite quarterback have a negative turnover differential. You know,
we don't expect that much regression from Buffalo this year,
but plus twenty four they ain't getting plus twenty four
in twenty twenty five. I wouldn't expect, although certainly the
(04:35):
history shows that teams that have huge turnover.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
Margins one year don't necessarily happen the next.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
Last year, yards per play offense tied at number six,
five point nine yards per play offensively much better than average.
The whole league was between five point zero and five
point nine yards per play on defense. Really, the defensive
yards for playing numbers last year aren't great, although I
will talk about them for a handful of teams. But
Buffalo is middle of the pack in that regard. The
packagers of losses due to injuries, they were five and
(05:03):
two in one score games, and again, you expect teams
with a good quarterback and a good defense to have
a winning record in the five in the one score games.
I'm not expecting significant regression from Buffalo in that regard.
So that's our starting point for the Bills. We talked
about offseason moves, and look, I mean the biggest editions
Joey Bosaid Josh Palmer were replacing guys they lost Von
(05:26):
Miller and mc collins, you know, both at defensive end,
Palmer wide receiver, Miller defensive end, Hollins a wide receiver.
That being said, this was a team that really was
much more concerned about resigning their core players. Josh Allen
got the contract extension, Greg Russou got resigned, eighty million bucks,
Khalio Seker got resigned, Terrell Bernard got resigned at linebacker,
(05:49):
Ty Johnson at running back got resigned. Reid Ferguson got
resigned at long snapper. I mean Devil Damar Hamlin came
back as well. So in terms of the big free
agent signings, yeah, I mean Michael Hawk that defensive tackle,
Joey Bosa at the edge, Palmer receiver. But this wasn't
a team that was going to be able to make
big moves in that regard. You know, larryan Obi, Jonbie
(06:14):
defensive tackle. They weren't a position that they were going
to dramatically be able to add impact free agents. That
being said, they weren't able to retain the core of
their team and.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
The rosters built pretty well.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
He look at the draft Maxwell Harriston the cornerback in
the first round, TJ. Sanders in the second round, the
edge rusher Land and Jackson in the third round, the
defensive tackle Dion Walker in the fourth round, cornerback Jordan Hancock.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
In the fifth.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
So it's a team that, certainly, when it comes to
the draft, cornerback, defensive tackle, edge, top five picks on
the defensive side of the football. That's where they felt
they needed to spend their draft capital. We talk about
the schedule for twenty twenty five and there's one big negative.
(07:00):
They're bottom five in rest edges. You know, they don't
get a lot of rest edges. Opposing teams have rest
edges against Buffalo. But we look at this year's win
totals to evaluate this year's schedule, and this is one
of the top five easiest schedules in the NFL. AFC
teams get nine home games, eight road. AFC East teams
(07:23):
face the AFC North and the NFC South, not the
two toughest divisions in the NFL. This season, many stretch
of the imagination, the Bills three extra games, KC Houston
Philly tough, But again, the meat of the schedule is not.
And you look at the start for Buffalo, the Jets,
(07:43):
the Dolphins, the Saints, the Pets, the Falcons, the bye,
the Panthers, after the Ravens in Week one, They've got
a chance to get off to a great start.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
For the first five are at home. There's reason, ample reason,
and good.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
Reason why Buffalo is lined higher than any other team
in the NFL this season.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
The schedule is easy, the rosters loaded.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Great start here, Teddy, top of the AFC East Division.
We'll head to the next team. We'll go down in
order of how they finished last season. We get the
Miami Dolphins last year eight and nine. Their overall record
guys seven and ten against the spread is what I'm seeing,
eight to nine over under as well here, Teddy, so
a lot near five hundred for the Dolphins. Of course,
(08:28):
injuries have been a little bit of an issue at
the quarterback position, a little bit of an issue, putting
it lightly for this team over the last couple of years.
But I'll throw it over to you. Eight and nine
last year for the Dolphins. How you viewing the Finns
this season?
Speaker 3 (08:43):
So ironically you're like, okay, we'll put them in order
of how they finished last year. I have him an
alphabetical order, so Buffalo, Miami, New England, New York, same
thing for the A for the NFC SO and this
one it's easy, and the NFC East is not.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
They did not finish in alphabetical order.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
Being said, Miami and alphabetic Lord are the second of
the two teams in the a FC East and Miami
right now lined basically eight and a half wins juice
to the under.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
So this is the team.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
It's basically if you're taking the juice out of the
grade in their line as an eight win team, a
sub five hundred squad, I'm seeing eight and a half
plus one point thirty to the over, so heavily juice
to the under on the eight and a half for
Miami last year, they finished eight and nine second place,
eleven and six in twenty twenty three, nine and eight
in twenty twenty two, nine and eight in twenty twenty one.
(09:36):
So this team's been pretty good, not great, and really
three the last fourth season, they've been bouncing around five hundred.
Head coach Mike McDaniel, now in his fourth season on
the job often corneler of Frank Smith also in his
fourth season, defense corneer Anthony Weaver in his second season.
So no significant coaching changes. Now, my numbers showed that
(09:57):
last year. Again, I'm each week I write down my
powering number, I track it on a spreadsheet, the powering
number of their opponent the week the game was played,
and based on those numbers, Miami, according to my numbers,
had the second weekest schedule in the NFL last year
(10:19):
based on my powering numbers for their opponents the week the.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Game was played.
Speaker 3 (10:23):
So they went below five hundred and eight and nine
for the season, and they did it against a particularly
weak slate of opponents. So you say that eight and nine, Yeah,
they were worse than that. Now, they were slightly worse
than average when it came to injuries. They finished minus
five turnovers. Again, the minus five turnovers, I don't know,
it's not significant. The slightly worse than average injuries, it's
(10:44):
not significant, at least not for this better. We talk
about the off season for Miami and they didn't really
have a whole lot of money to spend on free agency.
They were hoping to invest in the offstep line and
add depth in the secondary. I think they were able
to accomplish one of those two goals, not both of them.
There are big concerns for Miami when it comes to
(11:07):
their receiving corps, sorry, their cornerback corps.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
And of course Miami's put a ton of money into
the offense.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Two has gotten paid, the receiving corp has gotten paid,
and that's left them with some fairly significant concerns when
it comes to filling other roster holes. That's why Miami
is not being viewed as a contender in this division
this year the way that obviously Buffalo is. Draft wise,
Kenneth grant Ot of Michigan in the first round of
(11:35):
the defensive tackle also picked up Jordan Phillips, so a
pair of dts, but again Jordan Phillips a fifth round.
They only had two draft picks in the first four rounds,
one defensive tackle, one offensive guard, the kid out of
Arizona who might be pretty good, but by and large,
it's not a team that's likely to get a ton
from the draft simply because they didn't have the top
draft choices. When we look at you know who. They
(11:59):
were able to sign James Daniels in the opposite line.
Zach Wilson as a backup quarterback, has nothing to be
particularly excited about when it comes to talent acquisition for Miami.
If they're gonna make a run this year, they're gonna
have to make a run largely with last year's personnel.
Now this year's schedule, there are some real positives, all right.
(12:19):
They have a top five rest advantage multiple weeks in
which they've got more rest in their opponents, or they
catch their opponents on short weeks. Their bottom ten in
strength of schedule based on this year's win total, so
easier than average schedule. AFC East teams face AFC North
and NFC South opponents. They're three extra games the Chargers,
(12:42):
the Commanders, the Colts, so not necessarily easy in that regard.
Both the Chargers and the Commanders are supposed to be
pretty good. They do have from a scheduling, Hey, take
note of this standpoint. They had a bunch of late
cold weather road games at New England, at the Jets,
at Pittsburgh all December and January. That's not a say,
necessarily a positive sign for Miami. And again we look
(13:03):
at the personnel wise, we're not thrilled with the Dolphins.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
They looked to me very much like.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
A five hundred level team, which is about where they're priced.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
Teddy, next game up or next team up. We got
the New York Jets or five in twelve last year,
six and eleven against the spread.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
The New England Patriots. We're going in alphabetical order.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Okay, New England Patriots.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
Guys. We got New England Patriots last year, finishing at
the bottom of the division, four and thirteen overall. We
got them seven to ten against the spread over under
more of an overteam, eleven and six towards the over.
So the Patriots bottom of the division last year. You
see them climbing up this year.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
TC. Well, the markets certainly do.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
I mean, New England's lined eight and a half wins
and they're taking over money, all right. They were eight
and a half wins plus one hundred plus one thirty
even at the west Gate Anno. I'm seeing minus one ten,
minus one twenty minus one fifteen for New England at
the eight and a half numbers. So a team that's
been pretty bad, you know. I Mean they went ten
(14:09):
and seven in twenty twenty one, then eight and nine
and twenty twenty two, four and thirteen and twenty twenty three,
four and thirteen in twenty twenty four, so back to
back for thirteen seasons, three consecutive losing seasons. And obviously
it's a whole new staff for the Patriots, new head
coach Mike Rabele, new offenseive wriinnter Josh McDaniels. I guess
we'll call it in the new offense grander what's his
(14:31):
third stint in New England now?
Speaker 2 (14:32):
But under Vrabel, he's a new oc here.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
It's the new offense for New England for what they
have to learn, new defense grinter Terrell Williams.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
So it's all new.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Last year they were bottom five and injuries one of
the five most injured teams in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
They finished minus eleven in turnovers.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
That is significant, you know when that far back from
neutral and turnover wise four point eight yards per play
on offense, near the bottom of the league. Defense was
about league average five point five yards per play allowed.
So much of their problems last year the defense wasn't good,
the offense was even worse. Now this team had money
(15:11):
and they spent it. They spent a ton of money,
and of course they had many many holes. You know,
they wanted to overhaul the defense. They want to overhaul
the receiving corps. They still had the offensive line issues.
And you look at the free agents they signed. I
mean they you know, New England opened the checkbook one
hundred and four millions for Milton one hundred and four
million for Milton Williams to defensive tackle. Steph Diggs got
(15:33):
seventy million, Carlton Davis at cornerback got sixty million. Harold
landry If the ed rusher, got forty three point five million,
Robert Splane at linebacker. These are all free agents they
signed thirty seven million. Morgan Moses the offensive tackle, got
twenty four million. You know, Mac Collins at wide receiver
got eight point four million. I mean, lots of guys
(15:53):
coming to New England for the first time. It is
a roster that was significantly overhauled the free agency. Now.
You know, obviously Steph Diggs making headlines for the wrong
reasons so far already, they certainly still have issues at
receiver and cornerback. In the draft, Will Campbell the first pick,
they took, Trevion Henderson running back the second, so Kyle
(16:16):
Williams in the third round Jared Wilson as well at center.
So two linemen, two skill mission players in their top
four picks, all on the offensive side of the football.
The team that really tried to pay some attention to
offense this offseason. Now we look at their schedule, we say,
why the heck is this team who's been again. I
(16:38):
understand they put money in free agency and they had
money to spend it free agency.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
I understand the coaching stat's.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
Been overhauled, but four and thirteen, four and thirteen this year,
they got to get a five win improvement in order
to catch season win totals over what the heck?
Speaker 2 (16:53):
Well, this is why.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
Patriots play a grand total of five games all year against.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
Teams expected to have a winning record.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
They don't play any games against teams that had a
monster U season last only three games that teams that
eleven wins last year. Second easiest schedule in the NFL
based on this year's season win totals. Again, AFSE East
teams play AFC North and NFC South, they're three extra
games Vegas, Tennessee and the g Men. You look at
(17:27):
the numbers and again there's power ratings there, there's a
point spreads up for every game all season. Right now,
the Patriots are favored seven of the first nine games,
and they're plus two.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
And a half in another one.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
You know, in an eighth game at Miami only game
they're big dogs in his Buffalo. So there's legitimate reason
to be optimistic about New England and their ability to
start the season.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
Whether be able to maintain it's another question.
Speaker 3 (17:52):
And whether they're going to be able to live up
to the expectations that the markets have for them as
being a five hundred level squad or better than another question.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
But schedule wise, the Pats have it real easy, and.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
They did put a ton of money in the offseason
into win now type of moves.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Like the analysis there TC, I mean usually tricky handicaps
teams that have those season win totals a lot different
than last season. So we'll see what happens with the
Patriots getting to the New York Jets up next five
and twelve, finishing third place in the division last season
just six and eleven money burners against the spread. They
were an over team. I'm seeing eleven and six towards
(18:31):
the over. But TC, what are we thinking with the
New York Jets. We did have a question last week,
which we always appreciate in the comments below, with your
opinion on the Jets making the playoffs this season TC.
So I'll throw it over to you New York Jets
up next.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
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Speaker 2 (18:56):
Thank you.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
If you want to leave a comment below, we appreciate
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you for the likes, thank you for the comments, and
of course we haven't done so already. What we got
two hundred thousand of you following the way you're talking
(19:19):
YouTube channel, tons of amazing programming each and every week
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Speaker 2 (19:23):
I encourage you check it out chiaus.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Now, when it comes to the New York Football Jets,
lined five and a half wins juice to the over,
there's a six out there at blaceally plus one hundred,
so even money in terms of we'll talk them five
and a half slash six wins in the current marketplace
now and really with the juice, the Jets are lined
to the six win team, whether you get them at
(19:49):
five and a half or at six. Last year they
went five and twelve with Aaron Rodgers. The year before,
Rogers got hurt on the opener and they went seven
and ten. So they had a word better record without
Aaron Rodgers, and they did with him last year seven
and ten and twenty twenty two, four and thirteen and
twenty twenty one, two and fourteen and twenty twenty seven,
and nine in twenty nineteen, four and twelve in twenty eighteen,
(20:12):
five and eleven in twenty seventeen, five and eleven in
twenty sixteen. You gotta go all the way back to
twenty fifteen for the Jets have even had a decent year,
you know, I mean, they've been pretty god awful for
a pretty long time. For betting Jets win totals under
you've done fairly well. And when you look at the
numbers from last year again there were minus two and
turnovers was a turnover problem. They had the number two
(20:34):
defense in the NFL and yards per play allowed. Only
Philly was better than the Jets when it comes to
the defense. That being said, the offense only gained five
point two yards per play, that was worse than average.
They went three and seven in one score games, They
had more injuries in the average team, and the chemistry
for the Jets last year was a team that found
ways to lose games, not found ways to win them. Obviously,
(20:56):
in the offseason, new head coach Aaron Glenn defquinner Steve
Wilkes to offense quinner Tanner engstrings. It's worth noting for
Steve Wilkes, who just got rehired.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
I want to pack a look.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
I'm like, I feel like I've written bad things about
Wilkes many times. Wilkes last five jobs have lasted exactly
one year. He got fired by Arizona after one year,
fired by Cleveland after one year, fired by Missouri after
one year, fired by the Carolina after one year, and
fired by San Francisco after one year. Last year, he
was an advisor for the Charlotte forty nine ers in
(21:29):
college football. So that's six straight one year jobs for
Steve Wilkes. I thought it was an interesting hire. We'll
leave it at that.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
When it came to.
Speaker 3 (21:40):
The off season for the Jets and what they were
able to do, again, this team had salaries to cap constraints.
This team had significant issues when it came to guys
they have to replace veterans that have to go. There
was lots of holes for the Jets to fill and
not a lot of money for them to fill them.
(22:00):
You know, they resigned Jamians Sherwood at the linebacker. They
re signed Tony Adams at safety. You know, but in
terms of big moves, justin fields is the big move.
And then Andrew Sisk Andre Cisco at safety, Brandon Stevens
at cornerback. I mean three editions in that regard. We'll
talk about justin fields in just a minute. In the draft,
(22:21):
Jets actually had some capital this year. Offensive line, the
number one pick, arm and Membo from Missouri tight end
targets for fields in the second round, and Mason Taylor.
They got cornerback help, they got safety help, they got
linebacker help, they got receiver help.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
I thought it was a solid draft.
Speaker 3 (22:38):
For the Jets in terms of getting positions of need,
and because they had so many positions of need, it
was a concert. Now there's still questions when it comes
to the Jets secondary this year, I think they have
you know, they got issues at wide receiver. There's issue
is on both lines, offensive defensive lines. But this is
(23:00):
the team again last year with a lot of the
same personnel. They're expected to be really good the year
before as well. They're expected to compete for the playoffs
and obviously never lived up to those expectations. But personnel wise,
they weren't bottom of the league. I don't think they're
bottom of the league this year. This schedule middle of
the pack. Strength of schedule wise, AFC East faces again
(23:22):
NFC North and AFC North and NFC South. They are
three extra games for the Jets. They kind of got
host here Dallas, Denver, Jacksonville. Three teams all of which
I think are going to be better than they were
last year. Three third place teams from a year ago
that should be better.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Now.
Speaker 3 (23:39):
They have a bunch of home games down the stretch
that are winnable. Carolina, Cleveland, Atlanta, Miami, New England winnable
home games down the stretch.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
They faced Aaron Rodgers week one in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (23:50):
That'll be a lot of fun for the question again
that you brought up Drew to the Jets have a
chance to make the playoffs. Yes, I think they do.
And if I'm gonna bet the Jets, I'll put it
this way. The Jets from a personnel standpoint, from a
strength of schedule standpoint, if Justin Fields can be a
(24:14):
little bit better than Aaron Rodgers was last year, and
Aaron Rodgers was not good last year. And of course
how many games did Thejets loose because of their kicker
last year? Remember that missing those fields the whole season
turned when they missed that field goal against Denver.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
You know what was that Week five? Week six?
Speaker 3 (24:28):
They had a winning record at the time, they missed
the field goal at home, lost the game they should
have won, and everything went south for the Jets after that.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
A locker room that wasn't good. I think this locker
room would be better.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
And if I had to make a bet Jets not
to make the playoffs versus Jets to make the playoffs,
I'd make the latter, not the former. The Jets over
is on my short list for season those season winn
report coming at the beginning of July. Haven't bet it.
That's on the short list, we'll talk about teams we
like and put them to say leaning Jets over better yet,
(25:00):
but we might get there.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
Teddy, Time for this week's hot take. As we are,
I guess officially at the halftime mark with the AFCST
NFC is coming up next. Great analysis. There was Steve
wilk six straight one year jobs. I mean, any of
the managers out there watching the show would know this.
Hiring is tough. Like if you're a young kid in college,
(25:24):
that's one thing. Like like hiring people. I found out,
it's just very difficult. You're sitting there in an interview.
You got to figure this out. You're gonna pay this person,
Are they gonna do the job?
Speaker 4 (25:33):
Are they not? Man?
Speaker 1 (25:34):
I know one red flag out there, and you'll learn
this in college, but you'll even learn it more going on.
When somebody is at a job very short and then
they do it again, and then they do it, that
is a red flag.
Speaker 4 (25:47):
I mean, what's going on.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
Here with this?
Speaker 4 (25:49):
What do you think the Jets were thinking with this?
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Higher Well, it's so Steve Wilkes's a lot of respect,
you know, from guys around the league, and whether he's
certainly someone who you know new head coach Aaron Glenn
respects and that's what it comes down. This is someone
that we can work with, someone that we trust the
defensive schemes, and Wilkes has had a certainly had a
(26:13):
rough go of late.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
True.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
That being said, Glen's a guy who's gonna have his
fingers all over the defensive side of the football. You
know he really will. So from a play calling standpoint,
we expect Wills to do it. But again, Glenn also
a first year, first time head coach. You want to
go with people you're familiar with and people that you
like in that regard.
Speaker 4 (26:38):
Yeah, no, that that makes sense.
Speaker 1 (26:39):
So h DC, we'll see what happens there with with
the Jets. We got the NFC eat up next, guys.
Speaker 3 (26:46):
That's shoping real quickcause so, uh, I you know, before
before I became a sports but before I moved to
Las Vegas in my twenties, uh, you know, I used
to run. I used to manage restaurants and bars and
that type of thing. And I was always hiring people,
always hiring people. And you interview and you're like, uh,
I'm like, oh, I can read people.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
You know, I'm a good poker player. I can read.
Hiring people was as random as it could possibly be.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
You know, I'm like, Oh, this guy's gonna be awesome,
not so much, you know, at sports Memo, we're gonna
you know, Oh, this guy's gonna be awesome.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
Oh there are two.
Speaker 3 (27:18):
Months later forget this guy. And there was a more
of that than you might have thought. You know, I
consider myself a decent reader of people and a decent
you know, interviewer, and a decent whatever.
Speaker 2 (27:30):
And I was useless when it came to firing. I
would say useless.
Speaker 3 (27:33):
I was no worse than flipping a coin, which is
pretty much a lot of what what what The general
hiring process tends to be, like, Yeah, I'm picking up
what you're laying down there.
Speaker 4 (27:42):
At tc IS we got the NFC East up.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
Next, guy's previewing these teams, and we were going down
an ABC order of the team name right, Teddy, not
the city they come from.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
No, Dallas, Dallas, d Dallas, the New York Giants, and
then Philadelphia, pe in Washington, w But in the New
Island any w versus New York an he w gets
people confused because New England goes down with the Eve
versus the the why for New.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
York Jets exactly, That's what I guess threw me off
if you would say. But yeah, we got the Dallas
Cowboys up first here for the for the NFC East
guys last year seven and ten, seven and ten against
the spread is what I'm seeing here and an over
trender eleven and six towards the over. So we got
the Dallas Cowboys team preview up next, starting the NFC
(28:31):
East Division here at TC.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
Yeah, so I mean Dallas they have been really good.
And this year, of course, Dallas lined seven and a half,
seeing eight out there now, they have taken over money
seven and a half at the open. I'm seeing eight
and seven and a half with juice right now. So
Dallas is one team that legitimately from the opener has
(28:55):
taken over money. And you gonna understand why. I mean,
we look at last year in the starting point, all right.
They went seven to ten last year and resuilt in
the coaching changed by by Mike McCarthy. But this team
went twelve and five and twenty three. They went twelve
and five and twenty two. They went twelve and five
and twenty twenty one. So they had been good last
year was the outlier season in that regard, and my
(29:15):
numbers showed they played I'll call it top quartile in
terms of hardest schedules in the NFL based on my
Powering numbers the week the game was played. Now, there's
a good reason why they went south.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
Last year. The stisticks were awful.
Speaker 3 (29:29):
You know, five point zero yards per play on offense,
near the bottom of the league offensively, five point eight
yards per play allowed on defense, near the bottom of
the league defensively. So you know they were good with injuries.
Last year wasn't an injury real squad. They did finish
minus six in turnovers, which again bad, but not season
changing a minus six. What was bad was you know
(29:51):
they couldn't move to football. Now obviously have a new
head coach in Brian Schottneimer. He's gonna call his own plays.
Clayton Adams is the offensive corenator. Matt Eberflus in his
first year as d C undershot and iris the second
stint in Dallas, so he's familiar with the area. At
least off season moves. Dallas has some issues, and again
(30:12):
this is a team that was lined ten and a
half wins last year. Now they're lined in seven and
a half wins this year. Clients and I cash an
underticket with Dallas last year. They have significant salary cap constraints.
Dak Prescott is being paid more than any quarterback in
the league this year. CD Lamb makes more than all
but two other wide receivers. Michael Parsons is holding out
(30:35):
of mini camp. They got to pay him to you know,
he's gonna vue it. He's gonna get paid as much
as any defensive player. So they have significant concerns. And
then they re signed Odikuzua on the defensive line eighty
million bucks there, and they didn't have a whole lot
of money for much else when it came to signings,
(30:57):
as Miles Sanders coming in and running back, you know,
and Solomon tom much a defensive tackle. These are not
the expensive moves a draft standpoint. The first five rounds
offensive guard Tyler Booker out of Alabama in the first round,
ed rusher out of BC in the second round, a
quarterback from East Carolina the third round. Running back jayda
(31:17):
On Blue out of Texas in the fifth round.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
So perhaps some strength there.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
And again the offsite of line an area of need
for Dallas this season. From a scheduling standpoint, NFC East
again versus AFC West and NFC North opponents. That's two
tough divisions in the sense. Three extras Carolina, Arizona and
the New York Jets. Three teams that you know. Arizona
(31:46):
was pretty goodlas year, it should be pretty good this year.
Carolina and the Jets expected to be a little bit
better than they were a year ago. So, I mean,
I really have mixed feelings about Dallas right now. I'm
not close to betting them over. I'm not close to
betting them under. I think they're lying. They're lying in
the five hundred range, slightly below five hundred, and that's
where I've got empower rated right now, and that's what
the schedule looks to me like for Dallas to be
(32:09):
a five hundred level team. So not a team that
as of this point I have found anything lean wise
in terms of the season win total for Dallas.
Speaker 1 (32:22):
New York Giants up next, guys at the bottom of
the NFC East Division last season, three and fourteen overall,
I'm seeing four and thirteen against the spread, just six
and eleven under trenders. They couldn't win at home, they
couldn't win on the road here at TC and the
g Men straight zero and six in the division last year.
So hey, I guess one positive is only one way
(32:45):
to go, but up almost only one way to go?
Speaker 4 (32:48):
What are we thinking here with the New York Giants?
Speaker 3 (32:51):
So when you look at some of the early stuff
when it comes to schedule predictions and teams protecting out records,
and you know, some of the stuff that I found
when I was looking and doing a little bit of
research trying to go through wins of the beat writers
predicting wins and losses for every team, and somehow every
team finishes up right by their win total. And the
reality is that there's gonna be you know, the lowest
(33:14):
win total is the Giants. The highest win total is
Buffalo five and a half, eleven and a half. There's
gonna be two three four win teams, five win teams, many,
you know, multiple more than one or two. There's gonna
be twelve, thirteen, fourteen win teams in the NFL. They're
gonna be the outliers. And the betting market tone is
(33:34):
say priced them in in that way they have to
be you know, five and a half in that sense
for the team, and of course the Giants right now
five and.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
A half juice to the over, sorry, juice to the
under five and a half.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
I'm seeing plus one twenty five to the over, plus
one hundred plus one twenty at various books, So you know,
it's it's really the line closer to five than five
and a half for the team. But there's gonna be
a handful of teams that aren't gonna finish in that
middle range. You know, between you know, five and a
half and eleven and a half wins, there's gonna be
(34:09):
four three and two win teams. There's gonna be twelve,
thirteen and fourteen win teams. That happens every year, and
the guys who do the math models never seem to
figure that out, which baffles me. But I mean, you know,
the three and fourteen last year, six and eleven and
twenty twenty three, they were, they were a playoff team
in twenty twenty two, nine and seven. We cast it
(34:30):
over with the Giants that year, in fact, and I
felt very very lucky to do so. They sold a
bunch of games early that year and got some chemistry,
but again that was an outlier season. Four and thirteen
and twenty twenty one, six and ten in twenty twenty
four and twelve and twenty nineteen, five and eleven in
twenty eighteen, three and thirteen in twenty seventeen. Last time
(34:51):
they were good was in there in twenty sixteen they
were eleven and five. That was Eli Manning throwing a OBJ,
Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard. That tells you how long
ago that was. Giants have been consistently bad, just like
the Jets. You know, New York football has been bottom
tier for the better part of the last decade. Brian
Deball comes back for his fourth year as the head coach.
We didn't know if he'd be back.
Speaker 2 (35:10):
He got it.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
Mike Kafka gets another chance, a docptling the coruitter his
fourth year. Shane Bowen in the second year as DC.
So it's not like they revamped the coaching staff. And
I don't blame the coaches for the Giants failures. Their
failures have come from upstairs personnel wise, much more than
coaching wise. That's being said. Last year minus eight turnovers,
one of the three most injured teams in football, and
(35:34):
one in seven and one score games. Those are all
problems medium strength of schedule for the g Men last year.
When it comes to off season moves, you know they
re signed Darius Slayton, you know, bring in Russell Wilson
obviously is the key guy. Jameis Winston as well comes
to the g Men. They signed the Paulsonadevo out of
(35:56):
the quarterback as an impact move. Javon Holland comes as well,
Chauncey Golson on the defensive line. So I mean they've
actually made a fair bit of personnel moves that should
in theory improve the team. And of course obviously Jackson
Dart out of Mississippi. We'll see how long he sits
on the bench. If Brian de Bowle has his way,
(36:16):
Dart will sit on the bench all year. Russell Wilson
will be good. We'll see Abdul Carter obviously the number
one pick out of Penn State he is, and Darius
Alexander out of Toledo with the third round pick. These
are guys who, in theory should give the Giant some
semblance of a pass rush. Giants played eleven or play
(36:37):
eleven games against team that spickn have a winning record
this season. They play nine games against teams with eleven
or more wins from a season ago, and again based
on this year's win totals, the Giants played the single
toughest schedule in the NFL, NFC East versus AFC West
and NFC North.
Speaker 2 (36:58):
There are three extra games.
Speaker 3 (37:00):
New Orleans expected to be bad again, San Francisco expected
to be better.
Speaker 2 (37:03):
New England expected to be better.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
So it's not going to be easy for the g
Men this year's schedule wise, anymore than it was a
year ago when they finished with four victories. And of course,
the Giants from a power rating standpoint coming to the season,
for me at or near the very bottom of my
power ratings, they're not a team.
Speaker 2 (37:25):
If the Giants are on the shirt list, it ain't
towards the over teddy.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
We get the Philadelphia Eagles up next. Course, the defending
Super Bowl champion Eagles fourteen and three, top of the
division last season, eleven and six against the spread. They
were slightly under trenders in the regular season seven and ten.
Good at home, good on the road.
Speaker 4 (37:45):
What are we thinking with the Eagles top of the
division last season?
Speaker 3 (37:49):
Yeah, in Philadelphia line eleven and a half wins basically
minus won ten either way right now for Philadelphia, So
eleven wins they catch under his twelve wins they catchovers.
You mentioned this team won the Super Bowl last year.
They went eleven and six and twenty three. They went
fourteen and three and twenty twenty two and made the
Super Bowl, came up just short nine to eight twenty
(38:09):
twenty one. They made the playoffs seven times in the
last eight years. The Knick Siriana era has been good
for Eagles fans. Serrianni now in his fifth year, if
you have a new offensive winner of this season, Kevin Pittulo,
Vic Fangio back for his second year as DC. Fangio
worked Wonders for this defense last year. With Wonders, Yeah,
(38:30):
they were the number one defense in the NFL in
yards per play allowed.
Speaker 2 (38:34):
Last year.
Speaker 3 (38:34):
They finished plus eleven in turnovers. So you put those
two factors together, number one yards per play defense and
plus eleven turnovers. Yeah, we'll give the defense scoring to
some credit for that. Now, they were middle of the
pack yards for play on offense. They didn't go seven
to two in one score games last year. But again,
teams with good defenses and good quarterbacks you expect to
(38:56):
have winning records in one score game seven and two.
Maybe a little bit high in that regard, but Philadelphia
is certainly good in that sense. That being said, Philly
played a very weak schedule last year. I had him
as a fifth weekest schedule in the NFL based on
my Powering numbers the week the game was played. Now,
Philly spends a ton of their money on offense or
(39:19):
first in spending on the outside of the football. They're
thirty first in spending on the defense side of the football.
And really, you look at what they did in the offseason.
I mean, they resigned Zact Bond and then drafted some guys.
You know, they redid the Saquon Barkley's contract, they redid
Lane Johnson's I think they re signed Lane Johnson's contract
on the opposite line. But basically, there wasn't a whole
(39:42):
lot of move to make big free agent additions for Philly,
and they did their best to sign Bond.
Speaker 2 (39:48):
It was obviously a revelation for that team last year.
Speaker 3 (39:51):
In the draft, only two picks in the first two days,
Jehan Campbell, the linebacker at Alabama, and the safety Andrew
Macuba out of Texas, both of on the defensive side
of the football.
Speaker 2 (40:02):
In fact, the first five picks all through the fifth.
Speaker 3 (40:05):
Round all on defense for Philadelphia, so they're not paying
you know, they haven't spent a whole lot of money
on defense.
Speaker 2 (40:11):
They did draft heavily for defense this season.
Speaker 3 (40:16):
Schedule wise, this year, my numbers showed this one of
the five toughest schedules in the nfls. They went from
very easy last year to much much tougher this year.
NFC East versus AFC West and NFC North. There are
three extras, the Rams, the Bills, the Bucks, no gimmes
out of that trio for Philadelphia, And obviously, when you're
(40:39):
the Super Bowl champs, fed an off season of partying
and everyone's gunning for you, I'm not convinced that Philadelphia
is going to be able to live to match last
year's elite elite performances. That being said, I don't know
if I'm excited about being Philly under, but if the
lean here would only be towards eagle under their win total,
(41:02):
not over.
Speaker 1 (41:04):
Guys, we got one team left, the Washington Commanders here
in the NFC East. Any questions fire away in the
comments below will answer them on next week's show, Teddy,
A question for you here, from doing the show with
you for any years, I do know you know, the
super Bowl loser the next season, at least in past
years is kind of you've kind of thrown out there
(41:27):
a trend to watch out on betting that team the
next season. Is there any trends with the super Bowl
winner the defending super Bowl champion?
Speaker 3 (41:35):
So the super Bowl loser curse was something that was
legit for probably the first ten to fifteen, maybe even
twenty years up in Vegas. It has not been nearly
as good in recent years. That being said, Kansas City
having been there in every recent season. I worry about
(41:56):
the Chiefs this year, I legitimately do. We'll talk about
them next week. We do the Wests for those of
you who come back around next time. So, but when
it comes to the super Bowl winner, I don't have
any good prevailing trends that I know of.
Speaker 2 (42:16):
That's a Ralph Michael's question.
Speaker 3 (42:17):
I'm sure running into Ralph at some point in the
next week or so, and we'll see see what he has.
But there's nothing that stands out to me in that
regard of being particularly good or particularly bad for super
Bowl winners.
Speaker 2 (42:29):
I think it's just a case by case basis.
Speaker 3 (42:32):
In that regard, and being that this is our last team,
let me promo again for just one minute. Do you
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We appreciate it makes all the difference to the YouTube algorithms.
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(42:54):
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We appreciate the comments. Two hundred thousand following us on YouTube.
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Tons of free content every day, and of course you'll
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season win report comes July second, noon Pacific time.
Speaker 2 (43:11):
I need a deadline, you know.
Speaker 3 (43:13):
That's so that's why I'm like that we're doing it
this day and then you know, give me five six
weeks out and I can get all my work done
for it in plenty of time. So that's my deadline
is noon July second, it's a Wednesday. You can get
the report for one nine. You get to every play,
but frankly, the best deal is if you get any
type of season package, you'll get to report absolutely free
(43:35):
to visit my pagew dot buzz backslash t C. All right,
we're done taking care of business. You want to talk
about Washington. Introduce Washington.
Speaker 4 (43:46):
He's Teddy covers On Drew Martin.
Speaker 1 (43:47):
NFL Opening line Report previews here getting you ready for
the upcoming season, division by division. We got the West
coming up next week, guys, and of course during the
regular season eight am is eleven am Eastern New Time
going a little bit earlier this season, so mark your
calendars throughout the season hitting those opening lines.
Speaker 4 (44:09):
All right, TC.
Speaker 1 (44:09):
Last team for the show, we got the Washington Commanders
twelve and five last year overall, I'm seeing eleven and
six against the spread over trenders eleven and six as well.
They finished second place in the NFC East, did make
the playoffs. So what are we thinking here for the
Washington Commanders coming up in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 3 (44:29):
Washington line nine and a half wins a little bit
of juice to the over minus one twenty minus one,
twenty five, and you look at some of the offseason moves,
you say, boy, this team's trying to win. Now, those
tend to be teams you know, Hey, the irl's pointed
upward before Washington. Obviously, when you have the quarterback, when
you have an elite quarterback on a rookie deal, you
have moves, you have money to.
Speaker 2 (44:50):
Make moves, and Washington made a bunch of moves this offseason.
Speaker 3 (44:53):
We have a head coach would be like in Dan
Quinn offense, cornador, Cliff Kingsbury, defense correinator Joe Witt.
Speaker 2 (44:59):
They're all back. Second season on the job.
Speaker 3 (45:01):
And again this team twelve and five, last year four
and thirteen, and twenty twenty three eight eight and one,
last place team in twenty twenty two, there were seven
and ten and twenty one, seven and nine, and twenty
twenty three and thirteen and twenty nineteen seven to nine,
and twenty eighteen, seven and nine and twenty seven seventeen.
So prior to last year, the last winning season they
had was twenty sixteen when they went eight seven and one.
(45:24):
So last year a huge outlier from where this program
has been, from where this team has been, and obviously
bringing a guy like Quinn, you know, and you have
a quarterback who's making plays and you go, wow, yeah,
you can understand why they're good. There's another reason why
Washington was good last year, multiple reasons, and that ain't
gonna happen this year. This is who Washington faced at
(45:48):
the quarterback position to close out last season.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
From Week twelve, they faced.
Speaker 3 (45:52):
Cooper Rush, Will Levis, Jake Hayner, can He Pickett, Michael Pennix,
and Trey Lance. That's back up, back up, back up,
back up, back up, back up, back up.
Speaker 2 (46:07):
At best. Some of them were third stringers.
Speaker 3 (46:09):
My numbers show that Washington last year, the game the
week was played, faced the single easiest.
Speaker 2 (46:18):
Schedule in the NFL. Way easy.
Speaker 3 (46:22):
There's something else that happened last year for Washington that
really stands out, and again they were better than average
regarding injuries. Last year, they didn't have many injuries. They
are nothing doing versus turnovers, there was nothing, you know,
plus one, there was nothing doing in one score games
they were top ten and yards for play offensively, they
were bottom ten and yards were played defensively.
Speaker 2 (46:41):
But nothing really stands out in that regard.
Speaker 3 (46:44):
The one stat that stands out like a sore thumb
fourth down conversion rate. Last year, Washington went for twenty
three fourth down which is a lot. They converted twenty
of those, okay, twenty of twenty three on fourth downs
eighty seven percent. Now we look at the since two thousand,
(47:09):
all right, only two teams in the last two and
a half decades at a better conversion rate the twenty
sixteen cow Or two than eighteen Chargers, and they had
far fewer attempts nine to ten all right. Based on
the number of fourth down conversions and the drives where
they were converted, Washington basically had the best fourth down
(47:35):
conversion rate in NFL history, the most impactful NFL fourth
down conversion rate in history, and again we cannot expect
that to happen two years in a row. They were unbelievable,
facing very weak opponents, opponents with backup qbs and converting
on every fourth down try. That made a huge difference
(47:56):
in their season. Now they traded for Deebo Samuel. They
traded for Laramie, Who's interesting that the Texans are willing
to let him go, which is worth noting, just like
miamis willing to let him go, which you don't do
with franchise left tackles.
Speaker 2 (48:08):
You know the job Javon Kinlaw defensive tackle. You know
we now move.
Speaker 3 (48:13):
These are veteran guys who Washington saying we're going for it.
Of course, this is a roster that was fairly depleted,
you know, they're the Ron RIVERA regime was not good
when it came to.
Speaker 2 (48:26):
A successful draft choices.
Speaker 3 (48:28):
Adam Peters obviously is the new GM has done better
in that regard and all the moves they made again,
the lots of gaps on the roster. They've Zach Ertz
and Bobby Wagner, Andrew Wiley and Dante Fowler. They're all
on the wrong side of thirty last year and they're
all on the wrong side of thirty again this year.
All older, you know, and that's what they basically in
(48:51):
the off season they got older.
Speaker 2 (48:53):
Now a couple of.
Speaker 3 (48:54):
Impact draft choices, Trey Amils at Assissippi and the second
rounder Josh Connelly out of Oregon. The offensive tackle is
the first rounder. But it's not like they had a
ton of draft choices. It was the only two in
the first two days that they had. Jaylen Lane, the
wide receiver refording to Tech, the only guy they had
before the sixth and seventh round other than those two.
(49:14):
Then we look at this year's schedule bottom five. Rest
disadvantage for Washington, all right, lots of opponents. You know,
they get the Chicago off thereby, they got Seattle off
their by, they got the g Men off thereby. They
have two short week road games in Green Bay, Week two,
week seven in Dallas. So from a scheduling standpoint, rest
(49:38):
disadvantage not good. NFC East versus AFC West and NFC
North two fairly tough divisions. There are three extras Atlanta, Seattle,
Miami middle of a pack in that regard.
Speaker 2 (49:49):
None of those teams expected to be elite.
Speaker 3 (49:52):
But there's a lot of things to like about Washington,
and there's certainly plenty of things that make us expect
some regression for the Commanders this year, a team that
had an outlier season last year based on more than
just their rookie quarterback. The metrics worked out right for them,
the schedule worked out right for them, and the fourth
down conversion certainly worked out right for them, as they
(50:14):
won a whole bunch of tight games. But again, the
moves that they made are win now, and those tend
to be teams that we like this year, not tend
to be teams we bet against. But Washing is only
one way on my short list under their win.
Speaker 2 (50:28):
Total, not over.
Speaker 3 (50:31):
All.
Speaker 1 (50:31):
Right, TC man, my notepad is full. Here a bunch
of good stuff from your jam pack show. Anything else
you want to throw out before we shut this one down?
Speaker 2 (50:40):
No, no, I'm done.
Speaker 3 (50:41):
I mean look, we appreciate you guys for watching. We
appreciate you guys watching on replay. Tell your friends all right,
this is the year the show's got to blow up.
So if you like this analysis in June, please share
with someone. We appreciate it very much. Anything in the
comments that you want to respond to to or you
tell me buddy, well, we'll know.
Speaker 4 (51:01):
For next week.
Speaker 1 (51:02):
In terms of the comments on this show, guys, so
drop them there in the comments.
Speaker 4 (51:06):
Blow on YouTube.
Speaker 1 (51:07):
It helps grow the show as well the algorithm, so
we'll answer any questions. We'll be in there chiming in
as well throughout the week, So fire away in the comments.
Smash that light button for Teddy covers. I am Drew Martin,
who shout out to Dan Alexander behind the scenes.
Speaker 2 (51:21):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (51:21):
That does it for the East divisions. We'll be back
next week for the West divisions. Come back and join
us until then, Cash those tickets thanks for tuning in
Welcome into the NFL Opening Line Report, episode number two
of twenty twenty five, getting you ready for this season.
We got division previews coming your way.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Here.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
We're doing the AFC East, NFC East. Diane Andrew Martin,
joined as always by Teddy Covers TC. Welcome on Inbuddy,
ready to get after these East divisions.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
So I love it because, you know, looking at mainstream stuff,
there's not much out there right now, there really is.
If you're looking for team previews, this is the place
to come because there's nothing out there.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
So I love having this stuff. I love doing this
prep early.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
You know, we've got eight teams and I'm prepped up
on right now, AFC East, NFC East, and we're going
to talk three things for every team. We're going to
talk starting point, what happened last year, where the organization is,
where the coaching staff is, so what our starting point is,
some of the key stats from last year to think
about what we analyze this year's team. We're going to
talk about all the offseason moves personnel wise, coaching wise,
(00:56):
that sort of thing, and then we'll talk about this
year's schedule and how that's gonna affect our thought processes
about these teams. So yeah, Dred, let's get after it.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
I'm ready. It's June, it's football time.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
And of course all this in lou You know, we're
going each of the next four weeks two divisions every
Monday and Wednesday. July second is the NFL season win
total release. And of course that report one to three
and fifty two since twenty, since two thousand and one,
seventeen and four.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
With the big tickets. It's report. I put a lot
of work into this report. I'm proud of it. Report.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
You should, guys, should get a part of so you
can get it right now. You can already lock in
and get it the minute it's released. Just visit my
page wt dot buzz backslash TC or obviously you sign
up for any season long package, you'll get that report
for free.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
Building the foundation here on the NFL Opening line report.
That's exactly what we're doing, guys. So we're gonna start
off with the AFC East first. Of course, it finished
with the Buffalo Bills being the only team that made
the playoffs last year, and Teddy, I'll tee it up
for you. The Bills thirteen and four. They also went
ten and seven against the spread. They were five and
(02:09):
one in division and including going eight to no at
home during the regular season. But Teddy, I'll throw it
over to you. How are we starting off with the
Buffalo Bills top top of the division last season?
Speaker 3 (02:19):
Well, the Buffalo Bills, and we're gonna start with this
year's winter sitting and eleven and a half heavily juiced
to the over. You make an argument that it's a
MERLCRUIVN of twelve for Buffalo. Eleven and a half minus
won sixty to the over, eleven and a half minus
won fifty five to the over. The Bills the single
highest line team for wins this year. And we'll talk
(02:42):
about why when it comes to schedule for Buffalo. Last year,
the Bills went thirteen and four, twenty twenty three, eleven
and six, thirteen and three and twenty twenty two, eleven
and six and twenty twenty one, thirteen and three and
twenty twenty. So we're talking about a team that each
year this decade has gone, you know, they've made the
(03:02):
playoffs each of the last six years. They've been in
first place each of the last five years. Although it's
worth noting, you know, eleven and six, eleven and six
twice in the last four years. Eleven and six does
not cash over bets, and of course priborly the last
six years. The Bills had won ten games since nineteen
ninety nine. So, you know, Sean McDermott now in his
ninth year as head coach GM Brandon Bean has been
(03:24):
here since two thousand and seven. He's engineered this entire
turnaround for Buffalo. Offense cornet Joe Brady, defense corner Bobby Babage,
both in their second season. The Bills changed coordinators after
the twenty twenty three campaign. On both sides of the football,
both guys that McDermott hired have returned for another year.
(03:45):
The Bills were plus twenty four in turnovers last year,
and if there's one stat that stands out for Buffalo,
that's the stat that says, wow, that's how they won,
you know, thirteen games plus twenty four turnovers.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Now, note how far that is from the rest the league.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
The number two team was plus sixteenth, there were eight turnovers,
better than anyone else. The number three team was plus twelve.
So basically, the Bills were off the charts.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Good when it came to turnover differential, you know.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
So we don't expect a team with a good defense
and an elite quarterback have a negative turnover differential. You know,
we don't expect that much regression from Buffalo this year,
but plus twenty four they ain't getting plus twenty four
in twenty twenty five. I wouldn't expect, although certainly the
(04:35):
history shows that teams that have huge turnover.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
Margins one year don't necessarily happen the next.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
Last year, yards per play offense tied at number six,
five point nine yards per play offensively much better than average.
The whole league was between five point zero and five
point nine yards per play on defense. Really, the defensive
yards for playing numbers last year aren't great, although I
will talk about them for a handful of teams. But
Buffalo is middle of the pack in that regard. The
packagers of losses due to injuries, they were five and
(05:03):
two in one score games, and again, you expect teams
with a good quarterback and a good defense to have
a winning record in the five in the one score games.
I'm not expecting significant regression from Buffalo in that regard.
So that's our starting point for the Bills. We talked
about offseason moves, and look, I mean the biggest editions
Joey Bosaid Josh Palmer were replacing guys they lost Von
(05:26):
Miller and mc collins, you know, both at defensive end,
Palmer wide receiver, Miller defensive end, Hollins a wide receiver.
That being said, this was a team that really was
much more concerned about resigning their core players. Josh Allen
got the contract extension, Greg Russou got resigned, eighty million bucks,
Khalio Seker got resigned, Terrell Bernard got resigned at linebacker,
(05:49):
Ty Johnson at running back got resigned. Reid Ferguson got
resigned at long snapper. I mean Devil Damar Hamlin came
back as well. So in terms of the big free
agent signings, yeah, I mean Michael Hawk that defensive tackle,
Joey Bosa at the edge, Palmer receiver. But this wasn't
a team that was going to be able to make
big moves in that regard. You know, larryan Obi, Jonbie
(06:14):
defensive tackle. They weren't a position that they were going
to dramatically be able to add impact free agents. That
being said, they weren't able to retain the core of
their team and.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
The rosters built pretty well.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
He look at the draft Maxwell Harriston the cornerback in
the first round, TJ. Sanders in the second round, the
edge rusher Land and Jackson in the third round, the
defensive tackle Dion Walker in the fourth round, cornerback Jordan Hancock.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
In the fifth.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
So it's a team that, certainly, when it comes to
the draft, cornerback, defensive tackle, edge, top five picks on
the defensive side of the football. That's where they felt
they needed to spend their draft capital. We talk about
the schedule for twenty twenty five and there's one big negative.
(07:00):
They're bottom five in rest edges. You know, they don't
get a lot of rest edges. Opposing teams have rest
edges against Buffalo. But we look at this year's win
totals to evaluate this year's schedule, and this is one
of the top five easiest schedules in the NFL. AFC
teams get nine home games, eight road. AFC East teams
(07:23):
face the AFC North and the NFC South, not the
two toughest divisions in the NFL. This season, many stretch
of the imagination, the Bills three extra games, KC Houston
Philly tough, But again, the meat of the schedule is not.
And you look at the start for Buffalo, the Jets,
(07:43):
the Dolphins, the Saints, the Pets, the Falcons, the bye,
the Panthers, after the Ravens in Week one, They've got
a chance to get off to a great start.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
For the first five are at home. There's reason, ample reason,
and good.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
Reason why Buffalo is lined higher than any other team
in the NFL this season.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
The schedule is easy, the rosters loaded.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Great start here, Teddy, top of the AFC East Division.
We'll head to the next team. We'll go down in
order of how they finished last season. We get the
Miami Dolphins last year eight and nine. Their overall record
guys seven and ten against the spread is what I'm seeing,
eight to nine over under as well here, Teddy, so
a lot near five hundred for the Dolphins. Of course,
(08:28):
injuries have been a little bit of an issue at
the quarterback position, a little bit of an issue, putting
it lightly for this team over the last couple of years.
But I'll throw it over to you. Eight and nine
last year for the Dolphins. How you viewing the Finns
this season?
Speaker 3 (08:43):
So ironically you're like, okay, we'll put them in order
of how they finished last year. I have him an
alphabetical order, so Buffalo, Miami, New England, New York, same
thing for the A for the NFC SO and this
one it's easy, and the NFC East is not.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
They did not finish in alphabetical order.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
Being said, Miami and alphabetic Lord are the second of
the two teams in the a FC East and Miami
right now lined basically eight and a half wins juice
to the under.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
So this is the team.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
It's basically if you're taking the juice out of the
grade in their line as an eight win team, a
sub five hundred squad, I'm seeing eight and a half
plus one point thirty to the over, so heavily juice
to the under on the eight and a half for
Miami last year, they finished eight and nine second place,
eleven and six in twenty twenty three, nine and eight
in twenty twenty two, nine and eight in twenty twenty one.
(09:36):
So this team's been pretty good, not great, and really
three the last fourth season, they've been bouncing around five hundred.
Head coach Mike McDaniel, now in his fourth season on
the job often corneler of Frank Smith also in his
fourth season, defense corneer Anthony Weaver in his second season.
So no significant coaching changes. Now, my numbers showed that
(09:57):
last year. Again, I'm each week I write down my
powering number, I track it on a spreadsheet, the powering
number of their opponent the week the game was played,
and based on those numbers, Miami, according to my numbers,
had the second weekest schedule in the NFL last year
(10:19):
based on my powering numbers for their opponents the week the.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Game was played.
Speaker 3 (10:23):
So they went below five hundred and eight and nine
for the season, and they did it against a particularly
weak slate of opponents. So you say that eight and nine, Yeah,
they were worse than that. Now, they were slightly worse
than average when it came to injuries. They finished minus
five turnovers. Again, the minus five turnovers, I don't know,
it's not significant. The slightly worse than average injuries, it's
(10:44):
not significant, at least not for this better. We talk
about the off season for Miami and they didn't really
have a whole lot of money to spend on free agency.
They were hoping to invest in the offstep line and
add depth in the secondary. I think they were able
to accomplish one of those two goals, not both of them.
There are big concerns for Miami when it comes to
(11:07):
their receiving corps, sorry, their cornerback corps.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
And of course Miami's put a ton of money into
the offense.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Two has gotten paid, the receiving corp has gotten paid,
and that's left them with some fairly significant concerns when
it comes to filling other roster holes. That's why Miami
is not being viewed as a contender in this division
this year the way that obviously Buffalo is. Draft wise,
Kenneth grant Ot of Michigan in the first round of
(11:35):
the defensive tackle also picked up Jordan Phillips, so a
pair of dts, but again Jordan Phillips a fifth round.
They only had two draft picks in the first four rounds,
one defensive tackle, one offensive guard, the kid out of
Arizona who might be pretty good, but by and large,
it's not a team that's likely to get a ton
from the draft simply because they didn't have the top
draft choices. When we look at you know who. They
(11:59):
were able to sign James Daniels in the opposite line.
Zach Wilson as a backup quarterback, has nothing to be
particularly excited about when it comes to talent acquisition for Miami.
If they're gonna make a run this year, they're gonna
have to make a run largely with last year's personnel.
Now this year's schedule, there are some real positives, all right.
(12:19):
They have a top five rest advantage multiple weeks in
which they've got more rest in their opponents, or they
catch their opponents on short weeks. Their bottom ten in
strength of schedule based on this year's win total, so
easier than average schedule. AFC East teams face AFC North
and NFC South opponents. They're three extra games the Chargers,
(12:42):
the Commanders, the Colts, so not necessarily easy in that regard.
Both the Chargers and the Commanders are supposed to be
pretty good. They do have from a scheduling, Hey, take
note of this standpoint. They had a bunch of late
cold weather road games at New England, at the Jets,
at Pittsburgh all December and January. That's not a say,
necessarily a positive sign for Miami. And again we look
(13:03):
at the personnel wise, we're not thrilled with the Dolphins.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
They looked to me very much like.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
A five hundred level team, which is about where they're priced.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
Teddy, next game up or next team up. We got
the New York Jets or five in twelve last year,
six and eleven against the spread.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
The New England Patriots. We're going in alphabetical order.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Okay, New England Patriots.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
Guys. We got New England Patriots last year, finishing at
the bottom of the division, four and thirteen overall. We
got them seven to ten against the spread over under
more of an overteam, eleven and six towards the over.
So the Patriots bottom of the division last year. You
see them climbing up this year.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
TC. Well, the markets certainly do.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
I mean, New England's lined eight and a half wins
and they're taking over money, all right. They were eight
and a half wins plus one hundred plus one thirty
even at the west Gate Anno. I'm seeing minus one ten,
minus one twenty minus one fifteen for New England at
the eight and a half numbers. So a team that's
been pretty bad, you know. I Mean they went ten
(14:09):
and seven in twenty twenty one, then eight and nine
and twenty twenty two, four and thirteen and twenty twenty three,
four and thirteen in twenty twenty four, so back to
back for thirteen seasons, three consecutive losing seasons. And obviously
it's a whole new staff for the Patriots, new head
coach Mike Rabele, new offenseive wriinnter Josh McDaniels. I guess
we'll call it in the new offense grander what's his
(14:31):
third stint in New England now?
Speaker 2 (14:32):
But under Vrabel, he's a new oc here.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
It's the new offense for New England for what they
have to learn, new defense grinter Terrell Williams.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
So it's all new.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Last year they were bottom five and injuries one of
the five most injured teams in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
They finished minus eleven in turnovers.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
That is significant, you know when that far back from
neutral and turnover wise four point eight yards per play
on offense, near the bottom of the league. Defense was
about league average five point five yards per play allowed.
So much of their problems last year the defense wasn't good,
the offense was even worse. Now this team had money
(15:11):
and they spent it. They spent a ton of money,
and of course they had many many holes. You know,
they wanted to overhaul the defense. They want to overhaul
the receiving corps. They still had the offensive line issues.
And you look at the free agents they signed. I
mean they you know, New England opened the checkbook one
hundred and four millions for Milton one hundred and four
million for Milton Williams to defensive tackle. Steph Diggs got
(15:33):
seventy million, Carlton Davis at cornerback got sixty million. Harold
landry If the ed rusher, got forty three point five million,
Robert Splane at linebacker. These are all free agents they
signed thirty seven million. Morgan Moses the offensive tackle, got
twenty four million. You know, Mac Collins at wide receiver
got eight point four million. I mean, lots of guys
(15:53):
coming to New England for the first time. It is
a roster that was significantly overhauled the free agency. Now.
You know, obviously Steph Diggs making headlines for the wrong
reasons so far already, they certainly still have issues at
receiver and cornerback. In the draft, Will Campbell the first pick,
they took, Trevion Henderson running back the second, so Kyle
(16:16):
Williams in the third round Jared Wilson as well at center.
So two linemen, two skill mission players in their top
four picks, all on the offensive side of the football.
The team that really tried to pay some attention to
offense this offseason. Now we look at their schedule, we say,
why the heck is this team who's been again. I
(16:38):
understand they put money in free agency and they had
money to spend it free agency.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
I understand the coaching stat's.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
Been overhauled, but four and thirteen, four and thirteen this year,
they got to get a five win improvement in order
to catch season win totals over what the heck?
Speaker 2 (16:53):
Well, this is why.
Speaker 3 (16:56):
Patriots play a grand total of five games all year against.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
Teams expected to have a winning record.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
They don't play any games against teams that had a
monster U season last only three games that teams that
eleven wins last year. Second easiest schedule in the NFL
based on this year's season win totals. Again, AFSE East
teams play AFC North and NFC South, they're three extra
games Vegas, Tennessee and the g Men. You look at
(17:27):
the numbers and again there's power ratings there, there's a
point spreads up for every game all season. Right now,
the Patriots are favored seven of the first nine games,
and they're plus two.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
And a half in another one.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
You know, in an eighth game at Miami only game
they're big dogs in his Buffalo. So there's legitimate reason
to be optimistic about New England and their ability to
start the season.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
Whether be able to maintain it's another question.
Speaker 3 (17:52):
And whether they're going to be able to live up
to the expectations that the markets have for them as
being a five hundred level squad or better than another question.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
But schedule wise, the Pats have it real easy, and.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
They did put a ton of money in the offseason
into win now type of moves.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Like the analysis there TC, I mean usually tricky handicaps
teams that have those season win totals a lot different
than last season. So we'll see what happens with the
Patriots getting to the New York Jets up next five
and twelve, finishing third place in the division last season
just six and eleven money burners against the spread. They
were an over team. I'm seeing eleven and six towards
(18:31):
the over. But TC, what are we thinking with the
New York Jets. We did have a question last week,
which we always appreciate in the comments below, with your
opinion on the Jets making the playoffs this season TC.
So I'll throw it over to you New York Jets
up next.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
So let me start with this. If you like this
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Speaker 2 (18:56):
Thank you.
Speaker 3 (18:57):
If you want to leave a comment below, we appreciate
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you for the likes, thank you for the comments, and
of course we haven't done so already. What we got
two hundred thousand of you following the way you're talking
(19:19):
YouTube channel, tons of amazing programming each and every week
on this channel.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
I encourage you check it out chiaus.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Now, when it comes to the New York Football Jets,
lined five and a half wins juice to the over,
there's a six out there at blaceally plus one hundred,
so even money in terms of we'll talk them five
and a half slash six wins in the current marketplace
now and really with the juice, the Jets are lined
to the six win team, whether you get them at
(19:49):
five and a half or at six. Last year they
went five and twelve with Aaron Rodgers. The year before,
Rogers got hurt on the opener and they went seven
and ten. So they had a word better record without
Aaron Rodgers, and they did with him last year seven
and ten and twenty twenty two, four and thirteen and
twenty twenty one, two and fourteen and twenty twenty seven,
and nine in twenty nineteen, four and twelve in twenty eighteen,
(20:12):
five and eleven in twenty seventeen, five and eleven in
twenty sixteen. You gotta go all the way back to
twenty fifteen for the Jets have even had a decent year,
you know, I mean, they've been pretty god awful for
a pretty long time. For betting Jets win totals under
you've done fairly well. And when you look at the
numbers from last year again there were minus two and
turnovers was a turnover problem. They had the number two
(20:34):
defense in the NFL and yards per play allowed. Only
Philly was better than the Jets when it comes to
the defense. That being said, the offense only gained five
point two yards per play, that was worse than average.
They went three and seven in one score games, They
had more injuries in the average team, and the chemistry
for the Jets last year was a team that found
ways to lose games, not found ways to win them. Obviously,
(20:56):
in the offseason, new head coach Aaron Glenn defquinner Steve
Wilkes to offense quinner Tanner engstrings. It's worth noting for
Steve Wilkes, who just got rehired.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
I want to pack a look.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
I'm like, I feel like I've written bad things about
Wilkes many times. Wilkes last five jobs have lasted exactly
one year. He got fired by Arizona after one year,
fired by Cleveland after one year, fired by Missouri after
one year, fired by the Carolina after one year, and
fired by San Francisco after one year. Last year, he
was an advisor for the Charlotte forty nine ers in
(21:29):
college football. So that's six straight one year jobs for
Steve Wilkes. I thought it was an interesting hire. We'll
leave it at that.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
When it came to.
Speaker 3 (21:40):
The off season for the Jets and what they were
able to do, again, this team had salaries to cap constraints.
This team had significant issues when it came to guys
they have to replace veterans that have to go. There
was lots of holes for the Jets to fill and
not a lot of money for them to fill them.
(22:00):
You know, they resigned Jamians Sherwood at the linebacker. They
re signed Tony Adams at safety. You know, but in
terms of big moves, justin fields is the big move.
And then Andrew Sisk Andre Cisco at safety, Brandon Stevens
at cornerback. I mean three editions in that regard. We'll
talk about justin fields in just a minute. In the draft,
(22:21):
Jets actually had some capital this year. Offensive line, the
number one pick, arm and Membo from Missouri tight end
targets for fields in the second round, and Mason Taylor.
They got cornerback help, they got safety help, they got
linebacker help, they got receiver help.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
I thought it was a solid draft.
Speaker 3 (22:38):
For the Jets in terms of getting positions of need,
and because they had so many positions of need, it
was a concert. Now there's still questions when it comes
to the Jets secondary this year, I think they have
you know, they got issues at wide receiver. There's issue
is on both lines, offensive defensive lines. But this is
(23:00):
the team again last year with a lot of the
same personnel. They're expected to be really good the year
before as well. They're expected to compete for the playoffs
and obviously never lived up to those expectations. But personnel wise,
they weren't bottom of the league. I don't think they're
bottom of the league this year. This schedule middle of
the pack. Strength of schedule wise, AFC East faces again
(23:22):
NFC North and AFC North and NFC South. They are
three extra games for the Jets. They kind of got
host here Dallas, Denver, Jacksonville. Three teams all of which
I think are going to be better than they were
last year. Three third place teams from a year ago
that should be better.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Now.
Speaker 3 (23:39):
They have a bunch of home games down the stretch
that are winnable. Carolina, Cleveland, Atlanta, Miami, New England winnable
home games down the stretch.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
They faced Aaron Rodgers week one in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (23:50):
That'll be a lot of fun for the question again
that you brought up Drew to the Jets have a
chance to make the playoffs. Yes, I think they do.
And if I'm gonna bet the Jets, I'll put it
this way. The Jets from a personnel standpoint, from a
strength of schedule standpoint, if Justin Fields can be a
(24:14):
little bit better than Aaron Rodgers was last year, and
Aaron Rodgers was not good last year. And of course
how many games did Thejets loose because of their kicker
last year? Remember that missing those fields the whole season
turned when they missed that field goal against Denver.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
You know what was that Week five? Week six?
Speaker 3 (24:28):
They had a winning record at the time, they missed
the field goal at home, lost the game they should
have won, and everything went south for the Jets after that.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
A locker room that wasn't good. I think this locker
room would be better.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
And if I had to make a bet Jets not
to make the playoffs versus Jets to make the playoffs,
I'd make the latter, not the former. The Jets over
is on my short list for season those season winn
report coming at the beginning of July. Haven't bet it.
That's on the short list, we'll talk about teams we
like and put them to say leaning Jets over better yet,
(25:00):
but we might get there.
Speaker 1 (25:03):
Teddy, Time for this week's hot take. As we are,
I guess officially at the halftime mark with the AFCST
NFC is coming up next. Great analysis. There was Steve
wilk six straight one year jobs. I mean, any of
the managers out there watching the show would know this.
Hiring is tough. Like if you're a young kid in college,
(25:24):
that's one thing. Like like hiring people. I found out,
it's just very difficult. You're sitting there in an interview.
You got to figure this out. You're gonna pay this person,
Are they gonna do the job?
Speaker 4 (25:33):
Are they not? Man?
Speaker 1 (25:34):
I know one red flag out there, and you'll learn
this in college, but you'll even learn it more going on.
When somebody is at a job very short and then
they do it again, and then they do it, that
is a red flag.
Speaker 4 (25:47):
I mean, what's going on.
Speaker 2 (25:48):
Here with this?
Speaker 4 (25:49):
What do you think the Jets were thinking with this?
Speaker 3 (25:51):
Higher Well, it's so Steve Wilkes's a lot of respect,
you know, from guys around the league, and whether he's
certainly someone who you know new head coach Aaron Glenn
respects and that's what it comes down. This is someone
that we can work with, someone that we trust the
defensive schemes, and Wilkes has had a certainly had a
(26:13):
rough go of late.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
True.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
That being said, Glen's a guy who's gonna have his
fingers all over the defensive side of the football. You
know he really will. So from a play calling standpoint,
we expect Wills to do it. But again, Glenn also
a first year, first time head coach. You want to
go with people you're familiar with and people that you
like in that regard.
Speaker 4 (26:38):
Yeah, no, that that makes sense.
Speaker 1 (26:39):
So h DC, we'll see what happens there with with
the Jets. We got the NFC eat up next, guys.
Speaker 3 (26:46):
That's shoping real quickcause so, uh, I you know, before
before I became a sports but before I moved to
Las Vegas in my twenties, uh, you know, I used
to run. I used to manage restaurants and bars and
that type of thing. And I was always hiring people,
always hiring people. And you interview and you're like, uh,
I'm like, oh, I can read people.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
You know, I'm a good poker player. I can read.
Hiring people was as random as it could possibly be.
Speaker 3 (27:10):
You know, I'm like, Oh, this guy's gonna be awesome,
not so much, you know, at sports Memo, we're gonna
you know, Oh, this guy's gonna be awesome.
Speaker 2 (27:18):
Oh there are two.
Speaker 3 (27:18):
Months later forget this guy. And there was a more
of that than you might have thought. You know, I
consider myself a decent reader of people and a decent
you know, interviewer, and a decent whatever.
Speaker 2 (27:30):
And I was useless when it came to firing. I
would say useless.
Speaker 3 (27:33):
I was no worse than flipping a coin, which is
pretty much a lot of what what what The general
hiring process tends to be, like, Yeah, I'm picking up
what you're laying down there.
Speaker 4 (27:42):
At tc IS we got the NFC East up.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
Next, guy's previewing these teams, and we were going down
an ABC order of the team name right, Teddy, not
the city they come from.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
No, Dallas, Dallas, d Dallas, the New York Giants, and
then Philadelphia, pe in Washington, w But in the New
Island any w versus New York an he w gets
people confused because New England goes down with the Eve
versus the the why for New.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
York Jets exactly, That's what I guess threw me off
if you would say. But yeah, we got the Dallas
Cowboys up first here for the for the NFC East
guys last year seven and ten, seven and ten against
the spread is what I'm seeing here and an over
trender eleven and six towards the over. So we got
the Dallas Cowboys team preview up next, starting the NFC
(28:31):
East Division here at TC.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
Yeah, so I mean Dallas they have been really good.
And this year, of course, Dallas lined seven and a half,
seeing eight out there now, they have taken over money
seven and a half at the open. I'm seeing eight
and seven and a half with juice right now. So
Dallas is one team that legitimately from the opener has
(28:55):
taken over money. And you gonna understand why. I mean,
we look at last year in the starting point, all right.
They went seven to ten last year and resuilt in
the coaching changed by by Mike McCarthy. But this team
went twelve and five and twenty three. They went twelve
and five and twenty two. They went twelve and five
and twenty twenty one. So they had been good last
year was the outlier season in that regard, and my
(29:15):
numbers showed they played I'll call it top quartile in
terms of hardest schedules in the NFL based on my
Powering numbers the week the game was played. Now, there's
a good reason why they went south.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
Last year. The stisticks were awful.
Speaker 3 (29:29):
You know, five point zero yards per play on offense,
near the bottom of the league offensively, five point eight
yards per play allowed on defense, near the bottom of
the league defensively. So you know they were good with injuries.
Last year wasn't an injury real squad. They did finish
minus six in turnovers, which again bad, but not season
changing a minus six. What was bad was you know
(29:51):
they couldn't move to football. Now obviously have a new
head coach in Brian Schottneimer. He's gonna call his own plays.
Clayton Adams is the offensive corenator. Matt Eberflus in his
first year as d C undershot and iris the second
stint in Dallas, so he's familiar with the area. At
least off season moves. Dallas has some issues, and again
(30:12):
this is a team that was lined ten and a
half wins last year. Now they're lined in seven and
a half wins this year. Clients and I cash an
underticket with Dallas last year. They have significant salary cap constraints.
Dak Prescott is being paid more than any quarterback in
the league this year. CD Lamb makes more than all
but two other wide receivers. Michael Parsons is holding out
(30:35):
of mini camp. They got to pay him to you know,
he's gonna vue it. He's gonna get paid as much
as any defensive player. So they have significant concerns. And
then they re signed Odikuzua on the defensive line eighty
million bucks there, and they didn't have a whole lot
of money for much else when it came to signings,
(30:57):
as Miles Sanders coming in and running back, you know,
and Solomon tom much a defensive tackle. These are not
the expensive moves a draft standpoint. The first five rounds
offensive guard Tyler Booker out of Alabama in the first round,
ed rusher out of BC in the second round, a
quarterback from East Carolina the third round. Running back jayda
(31:17):
On Blue out of Texas in the fifth round.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
So perhaps some strength there.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
And again the offsite of line an area of need
for Dallas this season. From a scheduling standpoint, NFC East
again versus AFC West and NFC North opponents. That's two
tough divisions in the sense. Three extras Carolina, Arizona and
the New York Jets. Three teams that you know. Arizona
(31:46):
was pretty goodlas year, it should be pretty good this year.
Carolina and the Jets expected to be a little bit
better than they were a year ago. So, I mean,
I really have mixed feelings about Dallas right now. I'm
not close to betting them over. I'm not close to
betting them under. I think they're lying. They're lying in
the five hundred range, slightly below five hundred, and that's
where I've got empower rated right now, and that's what
the schedule looks to me like for Dallas to be
(32:09):
a five hundred level team. So not a team that
as of this point I have found anything lean wise
in terms of the season win total for Dallas.
Speaker 1 (32:22):
New York Giants up next, guys at the bottom of
the NFC East Division last season, three and fourteen overall,
I'm seeing four and thirteen against the spread, just six
and eleven under trenders. They couldn't win at home, they
couldn't win on the road here at TC and the
g Men straight zero and six in the division last year.
So hey, I guess one positive is only one way
(32:45):
to go, but up almost only one way to go?
Speaker 4 (32:48):
What are we thinking here with the New York Giants?
Speaker 3 (32:51):
So when you look at some of the early stuff
when it comes to schedule predictions and teams protecting out records,
and you know, some of the stuff that I found
when I was looking and doing a little bit of
research trying to go through wins of the beat writers
predicting wins and losses for every team, and somehow every
team finishes up right by their win total. And the
reality is that there's gonna be you know, the lowest
(33:14):
win total is the Giants. The highest win total is
Buffalo five and a half, eleven and a half. There's
gonna be two three four win teams, five win teams, many,
you know, multiple more than one or two. There's gonna
be twelve, thirteen, fourteen win teams in the NFL. They're
gonna be the outliers. And the betting market tone is
(33:34):
say priced them in in that way they have to
be you know, five and a half in that sense
for the team, and of course the Giants right now
five and.
Speaker 2 (33:44):
A half juice to the over, sorry, juice to the
under five and a half.
Speaker 3 (33:48):
I'm seeing plus one twenty five to the over, plus
one hundred plus one twenty at various books, So you know,
it's it's really the line closer to five than five
and a half for the team. But there's gonna be
a handful of teams that aren't gonna finish in that
middle range. You know, between you know, five and a
half and eleven and a half wins, there's gonna be
(34:09):
four three and two win teams. There's gonna be twelve,
thirteen and fourteen win teams. That happens every year, and
the guys who do the math models never seem to
figure that out, which baffles me. But I mean, you know,
the three and fourteen last year, six and eleven and
twenty twenty three, they were, they were a playoff team
in twenty twenty two, nine and seven. We cast it
(34:30):
over with the Giants that year, in fact, and I
felt very very lucky to do so. They sold a
bunch of games early that year and got some chemistry,
but again that was an outlier season. Four and thirteen
and twenty twenty one, six and ten in twenty twenty
four and twelve and twenty nineteen, five and eleven in
twenty eighteen, three and thirteen in twenty seventeen. Last time
(34:51):
they were good was in there in twenty sixteen they
were eleven and five. That was Eli Manning throwing a OBJ,
Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard. That tells you how long
ago that was. Giants have been consistently bad, just like
the Jets. You know, New York football has been bottom
tier for the better part of the last decade. Brian
Deball comes back for his fourth year as the head coach.
We didn't know if he'd be back.
Speaker 2 (35:10):
He got it.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
Mike Kafka gets another chance, a docptling the coruitter his
fourth year. Shane Bowen in the second year as DC.
So it's not like they revamped the coaching staff. And
I don't blame the coaches for the Giants failures. Their
failures have come from upstairs personnel wise, much more than
coaching wise. That's being said. Last year minus eight turnovers,
one of the three most injured teams in football, and
(35:34):
one in seven and one score games. Those are all
problems medium strength of schedule for the g Men last year.
When it comes to off season moves, you know they
re signed Darius Slayton, you know, bring in Russell Wilson
obviously is the key guy. Jameis Winston as well comes
to the g Men. They signed the Paulsonadevo out of
(35:56):
the quarterback as an impact move. Javon Holland comes as well,
Chauncey Golson on the defensive line. So I mean they've
actually made a fair bit of personnel moves that should
in theory improve the team. And of course obviously Jackson
Dart out of Mississippi. We'll see how long he sits
on the bench. If Brian de Bowle has his way,
(36:16):
Dart will sit on the bench all year. Russell Wilson
will be good. We'll see Abdul Carter obviously the number
one pick out of Penn State he is, and Darius
Alexander out of Toledo with the third round pick. These
are guys who, in theory should give the Giant some
semblance of a pass rush. Giants played eleven or play
(36:37):
eleven games against team that spickn have a winning record
this season. They play nine games against teams with eleven
or more wins from a season ago, and again based
on this year's win totals, the Giants played the single
toughest schedule in the NFL, NFC East versus AFC West
and NFC North.
Speaker 2 (36:58):
There are three extra games.
Speaker 3 (37:00):
New Orleans expected to be bad again, San Francisco expected
to be better.
Speaker 2 (37:03):
New England expected to be better.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
So it's not going to be easy for the g
Men this year's schedule wise, anymore than it was a
year ago when they finished with four victories. And of course,
the Giants from a power rating standpoint coming to the season,
for me at or near the very bottom of my
power ratings, they're not a team.
Speaker 2 (37:25):
If the Giants are on the shirt list, it ain't
towards the over teddy.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
We get the Philadelphia Eagles up next. Course, the defending
Super Bowl champion Eagles fourteen and three, top of the
division last season, eleven and six against the spread. They
were slightly under trenders in the regular season seven and ten.
Good at home, good on the road.
Speaker 4 (37:45):
What are we thinking with the Eagles top of the
division last season?
Speaker 3 (37:49):
Yeah, in Philadelphia line eleven and a half wins basically
minus won ten either way right now for Philadelphia, So
eleven wins they catch under his twelve wins they catchovers.
You mentioned this team won the Super Bowl last year.
They went eleven and six and twenty three. They went
fourteen and three and twenty twenty two and made the
Super Bowl, came up just short nine to eight twenty
(38:09):
twenty one. They made the playoffs seven times in the
last eight years. The Knick Siriana era has been good
for Eagles fans. Serrianni now in his fifth year, if
you have a new offensive winner of this season, Kevin Pittulo,
Vic Fangio back for his second year as DC. Fangio
worked Wonders for this defense last year. With Wonders, Yeah,
(38:30):
they were the number one defense in the NFL in
yards per play allowed.
Speaker 2 (38:34):
Last year.
Speaker 3 (38:34):
They finished plus eleven in turnovers. So you put those
two factors together, number one yards per play defense and
plus eleven turnovers. Yeah, we'll give the defense scoring to
some credit for that. Now, they were middle of the
pack yards for play on offense. They didn't go seven
to two in one score games last year. But again,
teams with good defenses and good quarterbacks you expect to
(38:56):
have winning records in one score game seven and two.
Maybe a little bit high in that regard, but Philadelphia
is certainly good in that sense. That being said, Philly
played a very weak schedule last year. I had him
as a fifth weekest schedule in the NFL based on
my Powering numbers the week the game was played. Now,
Philly spends a ton of their money on offense or
(39:19):
first in spending on the outside of the football. They're
thirty first in spending on the defense side of the football.
And really, you look at what they did in the offseason.
I mean, they resigned Zact Bond and then drafted some guys.
You know, they redid the Saquon Barkley's contract, they redid
Lane Johnson's I think they re signed Lane Johnson's contract
on the opposite line. But basically, there wasn't a whole
(39:42):
lot of move to make big free agent additions for Philly,
and they did their best to sign Bond.
Speaker 2 (39:48):
It was obviously a revelation for that team last year.
Speaker 3 (39:51):
In the draft, only two picks in the first two days,
Jehan Campbell, the linebacker at Alabama, and the safety Andrew
Macuba out of Texas, both of on the defensive side
of the football.
Speaker 2 (40:02):
In fact, the first five picks all through the fifth.
Speaker 3 (40:05):
Round all on defense for Philadelphia, so they're not paying
you know, they haven't spent a whole lot of money
on defense.
Speaker 2 (40:11):
They did draft heavily for defense this season.
Speaker 3 (40:16):
Schedule wise, this year, my numbers showed this one of
the five toughest schedules in the nfls. They went from
very easy last year to much much tougher this year.
NFC East versus AFC West and NFC North. There are
three extras, the Rams, the Bills, the Bucks, no gimmes
out of that trio for Philadelphia, And obviously, when you're
(40:39):
the Super Bowl champs, fed an off season of partying
and everyone's gunning for you, I'm not convinced that Philadelphia
is going to be able to live to match last
year's elite elite performances. That being said, I don't know
if I'm excited about being Philly under, but if the
lean here would only be towards eagle under their win total,
(41:02):
not over.
Speaker 1 (41:04):
Guys, we got one team left, the Washington Commanders here
in the NFC East. Any questions fire away in the
comments below will answer them on next week's show, Teddy,
A question for you here, from doing the show with
you for any years, I do know you know, the
super Bowl loser the next season, at least in past
years is kind of you've kind of thrown out there
(41:27):
a trend to watch out on betting that team the
next season. Is there any trends with the super Bowl
winner the defending super Bowl champion?
Speaker 3 (41:35):
So the super Bowl loser curse was something that was
legit for probably the first ten to fifteen, maybe even
twenty years up in Vegas. It has not been nearly
as good in recent years. That being said, Kansas City
having been there in every recent season. I worry about
(41:56):
the Chiefs this year, I legitimately do. We'll talk about
them next week. We do the Wests for those of
you who come back around next time. So, but when
it comes to the super Bowl winner, I don't have
any good prevailing trends that I know of.
Speaker 2 (42:16):
That's a Ralph Michael's question.
Speaker 3 (42:17):
I'm sure running into Ralph at some point in the
next week or so, and we'll see see what he has.
But there's nothing that stands out to me in that
regard of being particularly good or particularly bad for super
Bowl winners.
Speaker 2 (42:29):
I think it's just a case by case basis.
Speaker 3 (42:32):
In that regard, and being that this is our last team,
let me promo again for just one minute. Do you
like this type of analysis, give us a like, Thank you,
We appreciate it makes all the difference to the YouTube algorithms.
If you haven't commented, give us a comment below whatever
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(42:54):
couple days to answer your comments. So we appreciate the likes.
We appreciate the comments. Two hundred thousand following us on YouTube.
You do it now if you haven't done so already.
Tons of free content every day, and of course you'll
get the instant alerts when these videos go live. The
season win report comes July second, noon Pacific time.
Speaker 2 (43:11):
I need a deadline, you know.
Speaker 3 (43:13):
That's so that's why I'm like that we're doing it
this day and then you know, give me five six
weeks out and I can get all my work done
for it in plenty of time. So that's my deadline
is noon July second, it's a Wednesday. You can get
the report for one nine. You get to every play,
but frankly, the best deal is if you get any
type of season package, you'll get to report absolutely free
(43:35):
to visit my pagew dot buzz backslash t C. All right,
we're done taking care of business. You want to talk
about Washington. Introduce Washington.
Speaker 4 (43:46):
He's Teddy covers On Drew Martin.
Speaker 1 (43:47):
NFL Opening line Report previews here getting you ready for
the upcoming season, division by division. We got the West
coming up next week, guys, and of course during the
regular season eight am is eleven am Eastern New Time
going a little bit earlier this season, so mark your
calendars throughout the season hitting those opening lines.
Speaker 4 (44:09):
All right, TC.
Speaker 1 (44:09):
Last team for the show, we got the Washington Commanders
twelve and five last year overall, I'm seeing eleven and
six against the spread over trenders eleven and six as well.
They finished second place in the NFC East, did make
the playoffs. So what are we thinking here for the
Washington Commanders coming up in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 3 (44:29):
Washington line nine and a half wins a little bit
of juice to the over minus one twenty minus one,
twenty five, and you look at some of the offseason moves,
you say, boy, this team's trying to win. Now, those
tend to be teams you know, Hey, the irl's pointed
upward before Washington. Obviously, when you have the quarterback, when
you have an elite quarterback on a rookie deal, you
have moves, you have money to.
Speaker 2 (44:50):
Make moves, and Washington made a bunch of moves this offseason.
Speaker 3 (44:53):
We have a head coach would be like in Dan
Quinn offense, cornador, Cliff Kingsbury, defense correinator Joe Witt.
Speaker 2 (44:59):
They're all back. Second season on the job.
Speaker 3 (45:01):
And again this team twelve and five, last year four
and thirteen, and twenty twenty three eight eight and one,
last place team in twenty twenty two, there were seven
and ten and twenty one, seven and nine, and twenty
twenty three and thirteen and twenty nineteen seven to nine,
and twenty eighteen, seven and nine and twenty seven seventeen.
So prior to last year, the last winning season they
had was twenty sixteen when they went eight seven and one.
(45:24):
So last year a huge outlier from where this program
has been, from where this team has been, and obviously
bringing a guy like Quinn, you know, and you have
a quarterback who's making plays and you go, wow, yeah,
you can understand why they're good. There's another reason why
Washington was good last year, multiple reasons, and that ain't
gonna happen this year. This is who Washington faced at
(45:48):
the quarterback position to close out last season.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
From Week twelve, they faced.
Speaker 3 (45:52):
Cooper Rush, Will Levis, Jake Hayner, can He Pickett, Michael Pennix,
and Trey Lance. That's back up, back up, back up,
back up, back up, back up, back up.
Speaker 2 (46:07):
At best. Some of them were third stringers.
Speaker 3 (46:09):
My numbers show that Washington last year, the game the
week was played, faced the single easiest.
Speaker 2 (46:18):
Schedule in the NFL. Way easy.
Speaker 3 (46:22):
There's something else that happened last year for Washington that
really stands out, and again they were better than average
regarding injuries. Last year, they didn't have many injuries. They
are nothing doing versus turnovers, there was nothing, you know,
plus one, there was nothing doing in one score games
they were top ten and yards for play offensively, they
were bottom ten and yards were played defensively.
Speaker 2 (46:41):
But nothing really stands out in that regard.
Speaker 3 (46:44):
The one stat that stands out like a sore thumb
fourth down conversion rate. Last year, Washington went for twenty
three fourth down which is a lot. They converted twenty
of those, okay, twenty of twenty three on fourth downs
eighty seven percent. Now we look at the since two thousand,
(47:09):
all right, only two teams in the last two and
a half decades at a better conversion rate the twenty
sixteen cow Or two than eighteen Chargers, and they had
far fewer attempts nine to ten all right. Based on
the number of fourth down conversions and the drives where
they were converted, Washington basically had the best fourth down
(47:35):
conversion rate in NFL history, the most impactful NFL fourth
down conversion rate in history, and again we cannot expect
that to happen two years in a row. They were unbelievable,
facing very weak opponents, opponents with backup qbs and converting
on every fourth down try. That made a huge difference
(47:56):
in their season. Now they traded for Deebo Samuel. They
traded for Laramie, Who's interesting that the Texans are willing
to let him go, which is worth noting, just like
miamis willing to let him go, which you don't do
with franchise left tackles.
Speaker 2 (48:08):
You know the job Javon Kinlaw defensive tackle. You know
we now move.
Speaker 3 (48:13):
These are veteran guys who Washington saying we're going for it.
Of course, this is a roster that was fairly depleted,
you know, they're the Ron RIVERA regime was not good
when it came to.
Speaker 2 (48:26):
A successful draft choices.
Speaker 3 (48:28):
Adam Peters obviously is the new GM has done better
in that regard and all the moves they made again,
the lots of gaps on the roster. They've Zach Ertz
and Bobby Wagner, Andrew Wiley and Dante Fowler. They're all
on the wrong side of thirty last year and they're
all on the wrong side of thirty again this year.
All older, you know, and that's what they basically in
(48:51):
the off season they got older.
Speaker 2 (48:53):
Now a couple of.
Speaker 3 (48:54):
Impact draft choices, Trey Amils at Assissippi and the second
rounder Josh Connelly out of Oregon. The offensive tackle is
the first rounder. But it's not like they had a
ton of draft choices. It was the only two in
the first two days that they had. Jaylen Lane, the
wide receiver refording to Tech, the only guy they had
before the sixth and seventh round other than those two.
(49:14):
Then we look at this year's schedule bottom five. Rest
disadvantage for Washington, all right, lots of opponents. You know,
they get the Chicago off thereby, they got Seattle off
their by, they got the g Men off thereby. They
have two short week road games in Green Bay, Week two,
week seven in Dallas. So from a scheduling standpoint, rest
(49:38):
disadvantage not good. NFC East versus AFC West and NFC
North two fairly tough divisions. There are three extras Atlanta, Seattle,
Miami middle of a pack in that regard.
Speaker 2 (49:49):
None of those teams expected to be elite.
Speaker 3 (49:52):
But there's a lot of things to like about Washington,
and there's certainly plenty of things that make us expect
some regression for the Commanders this year, a team that
had an outlier season last year based on more than
just their rookie quarterback. The metrics worked out right for them,
the schedule worked out right for them, and the fourth
down conversion certainly worked out right for them, as they
(50:14):
won a whole bunch of tight games. But again, the
moves that they made are win now, and those tend
to be teams that we like this year, not tend
to be teams we bet against. But Washing is only
one way on my short list under their win.
Speaker 2 (50:28):
Total, not over.
Speaker 3 (50:31):
All.
Speaker 1 (50:31):
Right, TC man, my notepad is full. Here a bunch
of good stuff from your jam pack show. Anything else
you want to throw out before we shut this one down?
Speaker 2 (50:40):
No, no, I'm done.
Speaker 3 (50:41):
I mean look, we appreciate you guys for watching. We
appreciate you guys watching on replay. Tell your friends all right,
this is the year the show's got to blow up.
So if you like this analysis in June, please share
with someone. We appreciate it very much. Anything in the
comments that you want to respond to to or you
tell me buddy, well, we'll know.
Speaker 4 (51:01):
For next week.
Speaker 1 (51:02):
In terms of the comments on this show, guys, so
drop them there in the comments.
Speaker 4 (51:06):
Blow on YouTube.
Speaker 1 (51:07):
It helps grow the show as well the algorithm, so
we'll answer any questions. We'll be in there chiming in
as well throughout the week, So fire away in the comments.
Smash that light button for Teddy covers. I am Drew Martin,
who shout out to Dan Alexander behind the scenes.
Speaker 2 (51:21):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (51:21):
That does it for the East divisions. We'll be back
next week for the West divisions. Come back and join
us until then, Cash those tickets thanks for tuning in
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On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!