War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1404: Was the Russian Special Command Center Hit? or is Zelensky Playing Against Trump? Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Greetings, dear friends, guests and subscribers to the channel of
Alexander Shallist and Alexeiri Stovitch. This is our live stream,
the last for the twenty twenty five timeframe. Alexey Hello,
hello friends. First of all, thank you very much for
staying with us during twenty twenty five. It was very

(00:30):
complicated year, very emotional, very filled with events. We are
totally appreciative of you sticking with us and those who
come to watch our live streams, those who watch us later,
those who come and ask questions, and by the way,
same things to the audience of the Privateer station. Appreciate

(00:52):
your guys sticking around and keeping an eye on what's
happening in Ukraine from this perspective, as it is somewhat
different from the official rhetoric coming from Russia and Ukraine.
All right, so there are also telegram channels where you
can follow our speakers, Alexander Shallist, Alexia Stovich. I'm sure

(01:13):
Russian speaking audience already is aware of them. Unfortunately this
is not available in English, so somewhat limited there. And
as always, you can see two QR codes, one next
to Alexander Shallist. That's the way to support his channel
and the QRE code. Next to Alexearria, Stovich leads to

(01:33):
his school of thought. By the way, big thanks to
all of you guys who supported our channel with your things,
with your super donations, but really very appreciative of that.
Thank you, and happy new year. Okay. So going to
the stream again, today's question is vote for I am

(01:56):
for peace and Ukraine withdrawal from Dunbass. I can I'm
against peace and against withdrawing from don Bass, and I'm
against peace, but I'm for withdrawal from that to just
save the army. So don't look for some trap here,
just withdraw to save and preserve your troops. So this

(02:19):
sky today was talking like where are we going to
live down beast from It's just a plain field there
or until the next township. So we can start with
political events, Alex say, we can perhaps analyze what happened
in mar Lago during Zienski's visit, because the next day,
during the second tag between Putin and Trump, there was

(02:41):
more information coming from Lavarovshakov later confirmed or talked about
that too, that residence of Putchin who was shut up.
Zedanski jumps in and says, no, we didn't shoot at anything,
but Trump and tan Yahu confirmed that he heard about
it and was very upset. So with these details, it's

(03:02):
rather interesting. How do you think this yesterday's conversation will
reflect on things and maybe we can understand better what
did Zealenski and Trump talk about? What do you think?
As always, let's calculate the options. First of all, Trump
did not confirm the attack on Putin's residents during Natanyahu meeting.

(03:23):
He said that Putin told him about that. Oh, Alexei,
I mean, he said that he was angry by that, right,
But he said that Putin told me that he was attacked,
his residence was attacked, and that it is bad. He said,
would have been very upset if my residence was attacked.
So what versions do we have here? First, Ukraine really

(03:50):
attacked the residents, right, then, it's very straightforward. This is
very blunt, one hundred and twenty one percent signal that
Zelenski is playing against Trump. One needs to understand that
that if this is true, against is playing not against
the peace deal, not against Putin, not prolonging the war.

(04:13):
This is all kindergarten options, secondary tertiary reasons. The main
thing he's playing against Trump, because the main hit he
can orchestrate against Trump is to present him as a
failed peacekeeper, and that's the easiest way to disrupt his

(04:33):
peacekeeping effort. Now, let's imagine this is wrong. Let's imagine
Puttin light and level of light, and Trump can give
order to his investigative services to get the data. Then
his services comes back and say, imagine there was no hit.
That means that Putin is now in a weak position

(04:55):
where Trump can come back to him and ask, hey, Vlaed,
why are you you presenting yourself in such an awful light?
Because we can acquire real information and consider it as
my poll to our viewers, which option do you think
is more real? Well, it's I guess whom do you
believe more? Right? Okay, let's listen to what the evil

(05:18):
taxi drivers in New York are saying or DC attention to.
Those guys will be cutting it in pieces and taking
snippets and saying the time the Russian agent or some
other agent me Alexeiristovitch today. I don't know whether the
attack on residents actually occurred, but I know what the

(05:41):
so called taxi drivers that communicate with of the West
are talking about. And this was recorded and by the way,
on the not from Privority station at the end of
twenty five thirty thirty. First, So, first, this was not
the residents that it was attacked and taxi drivers are

(06:02):
saying that it actually was hit. It was also a
special command center dedicated to managing Russian military in case
of nuclear war. So this is a special project, a
whole underground city with things above the ground, communications underneath

(06:26):
the ground, and rooms underneath the ground. So supposedly, indeed
there were some UAV drones heading this way. They did
not reach the target, but the attack indeed happened. Why
Russians are so upset is that because this was an
attack against the command center of the nuclear triad that

(06:50):
is designed to be an operative center during a huge
warfare if that happens. Ever, so this is technically an
attack on the nuclear doctrine of Russia and for any
country that has nukes, it actually allows them to use
nukes back. So imagine you are an officer on duty

(07:12):
and that special facility and there is an attack happening
against this facility. They may not be fully aware of
what's happening, right, Maybe UV's maybe UV's butt. Nuclear warheads.
What could a normal country do not specifically taking Russia,
China or US. The country would probably lift the finger

(07:33):
and position it right above the red button and makes
a few phone calls to check what the heck is
going on, because the question is whether to press the
button or not to press the button. And I of
course did not believe these evil taxi drivers who are
saying and shaming our beautiful Ukrainian president sarcasm here, But

(07:59):
it's the thirty first, right, we can fantasize a little bit.
If it is true, then this fantastical and hard to
believe event again sarcasm here is or can be characterized
as the most large scale provocation since I don't know

(08:20):
Caribbean crisis, probably the attack on the strategic or the
element of strategic defense of Russia or Central Command outpost.
This is a significant event. So let's see what else
was happening during this time. Adistovitch was of course laying
on the sofa. Shelist was probably broadcasting in the stream.

(08:42):
What else was happening? Oh? Right, some Trump was meeting
with Zelensky somewhere in parallel, right synchronously as this was happening,
And it appears that these taxi drivers are lying to us.
Right again, we sarcasm here, cannot believe that. But as

(09:10):
we're getting the notes that Ukraine actually created a huge
provocation against the fact of negotiation itself and Trump's aid
in the negotiations. Now, if this is true in this
fantastic motion picture, and we're just researching this box of
lies of Russian narrative and supposed relations between Trump and Putant,

(09:36):
Trump in this case would look very discredited gentleman in
this situation who is incapable of conducting quality negotiations free
of provocations, given that he probably promised the other side
that there will be no attacks on the negotiation process

(09:57):
or no significant changes in warfare during the So now
us as bystanders who are not inventing anything, we just
analyze things and analyze how other people create these stories.
So we are trying to understand their thoughts and newspapers

(10:18):
and getting other sources, and we see that other people
right in black and white, that Zelenski continues to work
against Trump, and these horrible people are saying that the
next step and their key task of his allies, the globalists.

(10:43):
According to the publications that we try not to believe
to lead Trump to midterm elections in the United States,
so he would suffer a political fiasco, and that in
two years he would leave power, then the Democrats would
be back in power and again restart arms and money
to Ukraine usayed, restart, and Ukraine will continue doing what

(11:07):
they want to do. So if to trust these sources,
that Zelensky is significant, significantly complex person. He feels a
tremendous pressure from Trump, but he's actively intriguing against Trump,

(11:27):
and he's in a significant company of American and European globalists,
so he is not by himself. And that's why he
was smiling during the mutual press conference, because he knew
that they would be that attack on Russian fortification, on
Russian command center, nuclear command center, and that he was

(11:49):
smiling because he was aware of that, that he was
playing against these negotiations with against Trump. And if to
trust these people, yeah, that's what is being said and
a ton of sarcasm and Alexi's voice, and the only

(12:10):
one question is left according to them is how long
will Trump tolerate that behavior? Because the problem is not
only that Zelensky doesn't want to strike peace with Russia.
The problem is that he is actively engaging against Trump
and we're trying not to believe them. But I have

(12:31):
to analyze this narrative too. And for those who will
be cutting these clips, please take that statement that I
am against such a view, and do not blame me
of being anybody's agent. But my job is to analyze.
Alexei was full of sarcasm, talking, pushing the speech. Okay, Alexey,

(12:56):
we do not believe, but we do analyze in the show.
So do you think Zelenski could be not aware that
there is already an attack underway? Right? Of course he
was not aware that Earmark was, for example, stealing money.
He was not aware that other clothes and friends of

(13:19):
his and Scheffer and the others were and of his
compatriots were involved in all these machinations. So of course
he was not aware of any military attack. Why because,
according to Michael Padellak, his main spokesperson, President is the
most informed person in the country. And if you don't
believe that, you're a trader and you need to be sanctioned.

(13:42):
So there is one issue here. Two thirds of the
sanctioning body somehow turned out to be agents in Moscow
traders and were fired from this committee, but that never
prevented them from slapping sanctions again other people in the
country and other advisors and political figures in Ukraine. Wait,

(14:05):
wait a second, Alexey, let's try to be serious here.
Enough clouding around. Well, I'm absolutely serious, Alexander. I have
not been that serious since February of twenty two. Okay, Alexey,
enough laughing here. That's irritating though. But I have seen

(14:28):
in different telegram channels there are different ones, are Ukrainian Russian.
One could see that they were launches of drones, that
they were messages of aerial attack, and people were screaming,
that's for you, for Kiev. And now apparently we are

(14:51):
seeing a different disposition. Okay. On one hand, Trump is upset,
love Rov is upset. Zelenski is saying you are lying.
This is not true. But Lodov said that Russia will
review its negotiating position in which direction? What do you
think they have already mentioned, Alexander. They will pick appropriate

(15:14):
targets and they will continue hitting them. As for a
negotiating position, they'll probably include removal of Zelensky from power
as a condition for peace process. They'll just put that
fact in front of Trump and say this is our
limited condition unless they already mentioned that, and we're not

(15:34):
going to do anything as long as Zelenski is in power.
By the way, according to different sources that we try
not to believe, we just analyze here that Zelensky was
exactly pushing for that term and he will be saying
that to Europeans. Look, they want to remove me from

(15:54):
negotiations because I am standing for Ukraine's interests. I'm the
only one who is who's got Ukraine's interests in heart,
not putting, not Trump and all these UAVs and other
things that are flying. They have no meaning. They want
to attack me only because I'm so principally for Ukraine,

(16:16):
says Lenskim right. And he will also play a card
probably that all my voice on the tapes is just
a provocation, probably Ai and it's Trump and Putting together
wishing to remove me from power in Ukraine. So there
is that angle. But he's trying to hold his chair

(16:37):
and stay for as long time as he can, and
he's doing it by putting himself as a term in
negotiations and also trying to shake the throne of Trump. Meantime. Well,
that's a risky game, Alexy. Yeah, but does he have
other options? Really? Do you think he invented all that

(16:57):
scheme himself. Well, frankly, he's got a ton of advisors.
Maybe Musik, Shiff or somebody else left him that note,
Maybe Minditch texted him. Maybe you know, one of them

(17:20):
could have sent an important message to Zelenski, or maybe
he read it a newspaper as a strategy to read right.
So look, alexay then and I've been waiting for today
to discuss that meeting with you of Trump and Zelenski.
And then one needs to understand I think an interesting

(17:43):
detail here. And Trump was highlighting that detail continuously, that
it was done over food that meeting. They even had
a favorite cake of Trump. They had some mistakes, you know,
and Trump was highlighting that all these big generals they

(18:05):
had real good food, good feast at the reception. So
when the person is usually being fed or what's the
general purpose of that to keep him in better spirits? Right,
so he would be in better mood. Everybody is sitting
at the table eating, and usually people are honest when

(18:25):
they're eating. It's hard to be lying when you eat
this is subliminal psychological excursion into the story of these
business lunches, business dinners and all. So it draws a
very bad picture here. If those DC taxi drivers are correct,

(18:49):
then Zelenski visited Trump's home to deceive him. Well, right,
these are the cab drivers, right, I'm We're not the
ones pushing this agenda, right wink. So what conclusions can
we make out of this meeting? Well, the cab drivers

(19:09):
already are asking questions how long will Trump tolerate that?
Because this is already not a defense of Ukraine. This
left this framework and entered the framework of attacking Trump.
All right, So about recent statements by Trump. He indeed

(19:33):
joked in the negotiation in a conversation that it's a
good thing he didn't give Ukraine tomahawk And now, okay,
another thing that's just for me from Alexia Stovitch. Everything
that Trump said before the news of attack on the
Russian nuclear command center has no meaning. And that statement,

(20:03):
when Trump says that good thing would never gave tomahawks
to Ukraine, do you think he understands he already knows
where the attack actually happened. Right, Using swear words is
one thing, but attacking the home is completely other. And

(20:25):
the negotiation process in the war between Russia and Ukraine
is in the very sensitive face and these recent actions
are significantly complicating the negotiations. So what perspectives do we
have at the conclusion of twenty twenty five? So Trump

(20:45):
needs to I think find answers to two things. One
of them will be Russian's term of removal Zelenski from
the Ukraine's power if we are talking peace. And second,
what to do against Zelenski if he observes that Zelensky
is actively attacking Trump's presidency. So these two answers that

(21:07):
Trump needs to find, and I think we will be
very well positioned to observe it. Okay, Like I say,
I will ask another question here, what do you think
can Trump push Zelensky out of power? Well, he has

(21:27):
a limited effect on Zelensky because Lensky has a big
a few gesture in his pocket as EU who are
dreaming to remove Trump and his influence, and who are
working actively with Zelensky to break Trump's politics and probably
Trump himself as president. This is a serious trumping card

(21:49):
and Trump is not in a simple situation here. Okay,
Then all this rhetoric at the finishing press conference. What
we saw the topic of elections was not in the air.

(22:09):
Zelensky was pushing for a referendum. Well, Trump may agree
to elections and referendum, but just played differently. Or perhaps
he will use a more rougher scenario to push Zelensky
out of power away from presidents in Ukraine. We don't know, Alexander.

(22:35):
What will they do now? Now? If this attack on
Russian command center was not true, Russians are presenting it
as if it was. This is already a factor. It
still is moving, capable to move the negotiation framework. So
Trump will still have to answer these two questions. And
what options does he have. First of all, he cannot
attack Kiev, right he won't, so he doesn't have too

(23:01):
many options there. Perhaps the only option is to change
the order of things. So maybe run the referendum of
trust about Zelenski and Ukraine, and it's difficult to object
the result to the results of it, but it might
be falsified. Second, he may start, or immediately or very soon,

(23:26):
the program to descredit Zelensky. They may leak a lot
of tapes, a lot of things could be personal sanctions
against Zelenski. He will try to discredit him, perhaps as
the leadership figure, and lead Ukraine to the situation when
the Ukrainian Parliament will need to take side, perhaps start
an impeachment procedure against Zlenski. But this is a very

(23:48):
risky and diluded, very nebulous step. First of all, they'll
need some time to make a decision, and when they
figure out it may take us about a month, maybe sooner,
but maybe a little later. But it will take a
bit of time. It's not an easy place where Trump is. Basically,

(24:10):
what we have now is that the president of an
independent country that is totally dependent on the United States
has significant levers because of EU and fighting actively against
aggressor represent aggressor side represented by Putin and his Russia.
And at the same time he's actively playing against Trump

(24:34):
to remove him from the position of power in the
United States via breaking his political aspirations. So there will
be some actions, sanctions. What they would look like we
don't know yet. I guess the easiest one is to
public materials that would discredit presidents Lenski and I did

(24:56):
like the formulation of one of the Ukrainian speakers that
Nabou came to Zelensky's TV project crew quarter, the comedy
crew of his past life, because they want to blackmail Zelensky.
Was something. Oh, so one can ask a question, So
there is something to blackmail him with, right, and otherwise

(25:21):
you're talking about, Yeah, it's okay to blackmail and it's
just inappropriate. Right. So it's definitely not going to be boring.
And the big question is what will Trump do? Okay,
another aspect I want to add to this topic, and
let's scale it a bit, maybe analys a few other events.

(25:54):
Everybody were expecting Christmas miracle from this meeting in mar Lago,
and at the end we got that geometrically different outcome
with a slap on the face. So all of the
core of Christmas statements, the only so called Christmas state
statement in Ukraine that Ukrainians and Zelenski wish putting to die.

(26:23):
Then we see that he was talking there for about
eight minutes, right, Zelensky, that we deserve. The Ukrainians were
so and so and fantastic. They were just candles and
empty table and fir trees. But everything looked pretty, everything

(26:44):
was shining. It's difficult though to tell whether it's an
orthodox non Orthodox Christmas, whatever he is celebrating, and the
whole road to the very end, he was holding something.
You could see him holding himself. Last time I saw
him like that was during the comedy club when he
already had a joke and he was holding it before

(27:06):
tearing the audience apart. So that's I guess his joke.
And I think it is a planned action. Well, of course,
if the actually attack happened, this was an organized, a
very well planned attack. And if it is well planned,
it is the goal of this action is to remove

(27:27):
Trump from power, is to make him lose intermediate elections
in the United States and then face impeachment by hostile Congress.
And yeah, I guess he's trying to offer Ukrainians that
their president is so brave that they can be proud

(27:48):
of him. He's intriguing actively, He's attacking actively the president
of the United States. If this is all true, if
this attack actually happened, so yeah, I think his supporters
can be proud of him. Even Nitta Yahu does not
allow himself to behave like that. So when do you

(28:12):
think that became obvious? I have a feeling and a
date when it became obvious, maybe it happened earlier, maybe
you have a different opinion on Lexi. But this whole
style of behavior was officially formulated and presented as a
program on the twenty fourth of August, at the day
of Ukraine's independence. Back then, the Landska made a statement

(28:34):
that we are not a victim, we are a fighter.
And since then, I believe is when things started. How
would you estimate this year victim versus fighter? I think
it started earlier. I give you a different option, Alexander,

(28:56):
when there was still an election campaign going in the
United States and Zelensky with his delegation toward the General
Dynamics scrant admunition plants in Pennsylvania, that was viewed as
he has support to the Democrats, even though the generally
military production is usually an essence of the sponsors or
Apublican Party. But it was seen as Zelenski's encroachment and

(29:18):
Democrats encroachment and to that sector to gather some support
or his candle in the Oval office. What do you
think about that? So these bells were rung by Zelensky
and Dermak a long time ago during the election campaign,
I mean before Trump was ever elected, and some contacts

(29:44):
already indicating that Deep State already knows that Ukraine funded
some actions against Trump during the election campaign. And why
did they want to remove your mark because he was
part of that funding. So now Zananski also got enough
support from Britz from EU, and he's got Starmars and

(30:10):
the rest of the coalition and Ursula Underlion, and they
already have made a decision that they're working against Trump,
and they, I guess, gave wings to our little Egret
who wants to become an eagle, and he's now intriguing
actively against Trump and working towards his defeat and midterm elections.

(30:31):
So I guess he can be proud of that in
his Ukrainian office, and not every president of Ukraine has
an influence on the American president and fighting the war
with Russia, it's a big deal, I think, and he
may end up giving himself an Order of Hero of
Ukraine and perhaps also get a Hero of the EU medal.

(30:51):
So okay, I like to see if Ukraine is a fighter.
It seems to be losing quite a lot of fights
on the front. Maybe there were attempts to win some
media fights, but in the battlefield, the situation for twenty
twenty five was rather bad from whose point of view, Alexander,

(31:14):
From the point of view of the objective control the
amount of territor we had at the beginning of this
year versus the amount of territory we have at the
end of this year. Okay, Alexander. They can think about
it differently. The way they can think is that with
support of EU, with their money and munitions, yes, Ukraine
will be withdrawing. Maybe it'll expedite somewhat, but till Russians

(31:37):
take Zaparogia. Why while they will spend time taking Kromatorska
and Slavansk and assume that's another year, year and a half.
Russians were taking Pacross for over a year. Now take
a million people worth Zaparogia and also agglomeration of Slavanskan
and kramat Orsk. Meantime, Trump will lose maybe everything, and
Democrats might come back in the United States, and then

(32:00):
Ukraine will get more money again and more munitions, and
the most important thing for Zelenski is to stay in
power during all the time. Okay, I do understand the logic,
thank you. However, there is another story here. People don't
really want to join Ukrainian army. Too many people are leaving,

(32:20):
running away. There are just holes in the whole military
system because of personnel matters. That's true, that's all true.
And even in that situation, the final operation on taking
Pakrovsk and Kupansk is still very difficult for Russians and Ukraine.

(32:41):
Given that difficult situation in the front, still manage given
to push back in kupan'sk a bit and take back
two thirds of it. So that's why they are looking
at it quite optimistically. Am mombilization. Yeah, they will probably
tighten more screws and try to gather more people. It
is not seen as the significant risk. Okay. Like see,

(33:04):
there is another statement from minister cabin ministers that is
being discussed in Ukraine. That's Serdy Dhenka pushed that in
every village there's got to be a drafting commission representative. Well,
how is that even going to make anything better when
in villages there are almost no men left. Well right,

(33:25):
you're correct in one hand, but you know they're seeing
it as let's make traps and the moment you see
a man, you capture him, you spring a trap and
then drag him over to the front. They also think
that Russia already has significant economic issues. In a year
year and a half, they will likely face even deeper crisis. Meantime,

(33:48):
the task of Ukraine is to still hold, just survive
that time, while Russia will start falling off the cliff,
and then Ukraine somehow will figure out to take these
territories back and play it back. Their point of view,
that seems to be a reasonable strategy if you believe
this worldview, that position makes sense. Well, but this is

(34:09):
not the Ukrainian, pro Ukrainian strategy, Alexei, right right, it
is not pro Ukrainian, it is Prosilan Sky strategy. So
people who live in Ukraine, who see Ukraine from within, Alexey,
how does that strategy support them? Yeah? Right, it's horrible
for them. But the more I observed how the countries,

(34:34):
how people in other countries view Ukraine, the more I
started to think about the outcome of this war. The
problem with Ukraine and with the West, with Europe is
that Ukraine needs to fight for another year or two
because it does take time for the West to for

(34:56):
EU specifically to build up a few more factories and
tried to get the money back from these investments. Well,
I ran a wreck for war went for eight years, right,
so why bother? Maybe this war will last longer, but
Ukraine may run out of Ukrainians Alexey, Not really right, Alexander.

(35:19):
What do military personal complain about. They're saying, we have
a quarter of a million people in the front. However
in the back we got about a million people who
are prohibited from being drafted, who paid or got some
other preferences. Military are saying that you got police. If

(35:39):
you bring all the just police officers to the front,
technically have a huge potential for mobilization. Ukraine didn't even
tap into the female part of its population. They might
so yeah, they're still doing with that. They do not
feel it too extreme. Zenanski government. That is the main

(36:00):
purpose for his regime now is not so much as
to overcome Putin, but to get rid of Trump by
the actions that what seems like. That's one needs to understand,
and there are significant terms for the United States. First
of all, intermediate elections to Congress and then how long
will Trump have left after that? Right, this is their

(36:22):
primary target for Zelensky office. Putin is a question number
two very important. But number two the first one is Trump.
Trump is affecting their life much worse than Putin does.
Trump is changing the world order and lansk his government
or stakeholders of the previous world order of the globalist

(36:45):
okay le say, I have a religious question to you.
Do you believe into election? In elections and referendum? Do
you think they'll be done together or separately. I'm actually
agnostic in this religious matter. I do want to believe
in elections, but I have significant doubts, so I'm weak

(37:09):
in my spiritual position. I guess elections might happen. Zelenski
actually aims to win them in the Ukraine. And what
is he relying upon. He is relying that he may
find a way to negotiate with Zelutioni to not let
Zaluzi run in these elections, and without that figure, that'll
be quite easy for him to win. Recently, David rhaim

(37:31):
I mentioned that it will be very difficult for military
to participate in elections because they need to leave the
army for at least some time to agitate for his name,
and then nobody will be on the front. So oops,
we don't have military officers running against Nanskin in this campaign,
because who will let them, and again, what will happen

(37:51):
sooner a referendum or elections. A referendum is a great
way to prolong the whole process. They may say, yeah,
we agree to everything, we don't believe that we attack
Russian residents, Russian command center, but let us be nice
and fluffy and let's run a referendum first. This is
sixty to ninety days right. Meantime there'll be intermediate elections

(38:15):
into the Congress of US right, midterm elections. So and
then you cannot bring three questions to referendum. You only
can bring one question. You need to organize two or three.
And that's maybe a strategy for Zenoska government just to
buy time and see maybe Trump loses midterm elections, so

(38:39):
who will be also organizing that referendum? Right, And that's
why I think Ukraine administration is actively biding time. They
they are pulling it to make sure they have all
the time in the world and everything develops as slow
as possible, and they're expecting that maybe at some point
they'll get rid of Trump a right. Looking at how

(39:00):
Trump is behaving himself with Maduro, I don't think he's
too decisive. Side note this was recorded before Maduro was captured.
This was a few days I was thirty first of December.
Alexander Trump, I cannot say he's indecisive. They're intercepting the

(39:23):
tankers with a will, they are intercepting the drug trade.
It's a big operation. He cannot afford himself to lose
in Venezuela, so especially given the midterm elections coming soon.
So he's just trying to be more thorough. I think
ideally it would be better to do this war outside
of Russia Ukraine conflict, maybe finish the Russia Ukraine conflict first.

(39:47):
But now that he sees that Zenanski is a difficult
target and the whole situation might take more time, he
might switch and pay more attention to Venezuela and a
very near term all right. More rumors are spread about

(40:09):
you by political experts from Moldova saying that you are
somewhat related with badanav and under Kushnir wing you are
preparing taking over Zelenski's government, which Kushnair the Trump's relative, right, right?
That one? And who's whom did you mention of from Moldova? Sigebone, Oh,

(40:34):
I don't even know that commentator that's an interesting insight
that I wanted to bring to your attention, Alexei. All right,
di serge, I want to answer your commentary just for
you personally. I am so I grew so fond of
the life of a simple person that I don't want
to topple any government. Now imagine, okay, I somehow get

(40:58):
in touch with Kushnir and with Badanav and we Toppolznanski
and what next? Well, then let's say you come to
power as who there is a huge apparatus loyal to
Budanav behind him, hundreds of people who are tied to
him by loyalty, money, actions, history or whatever. Bodanav has allies,

(41:21):
he has an apparatus. What do I bring to the
table in that angle? I do not really have a team.
Oh right, people say I have beautiful eyes, the girls
for all for them. Okay, If it is a factory
in modern politics, then of course I am ready to
do that. I can be what like Michael Padelac, the

(41:45):
person responding and explaining the actions of the government. I
do not appreciate that position. I don't like it. I
figured it's not my forte. Then what else do we
do with this team. I can name the conditions under
which I can come back to Ukraine if Ukrainian projectivity
will start to be shifted to something more reasonable than

(42:07):
what's happening now. Because observing what's happening there these days
political initiatives, cultural initiatives, I am frankly stunned. I start
to understand that the main victim of this war are
not territories, but cognitive layer of the whole part of

(42:33):
our compatriots. And I have a question, are we going
to try to save that, to treat that, to save
Ukraine from themselves? Because even if Sergei Bodner somehow agrees
with Kushner and Budanav and takes Helm of Ukraine and

(42:53):
tells me that Alexey please come back, let's rebuild Ukraine,
I still would need these general terms that we are
changing the projectivity, because I will have questions to the
next power that comes to power in Ukraine. What will
be happening with the drafting commission accesses, Will these people

(43:15):
be punished, What we'll be doing with people who are
beating up kids in kindergartens who speak Russian? What will
we do with corruption? What will we do with we've
got a lot of problems, right, So I don't see
that realistically. I don't see that's happening soon. I'm actually
enjoying my present life of outside the processes. For a

(43:37):
couple of years I was lamenting being outside of the
political life, but now I kind of grew to like it.
I live in a free country. You wake up, you
eat oranges, you go do a couple of streams. And
why do I need to go somewhere, risk my life
topple things well from otherland. That's a good question, Alexander.

(44:00):
For which motherland the one that's calling upon limiting the
rights of Russian speaking population, The country that drags Orthodox
Church representatives to court even when their health is suboptimal,
The country that beats up their men who refuse to

(44:21):
fight for this regime, the country that abuses its population
tax wise and sanction wise internally. Such motherland can only
get from me some words in my daily streams. The
country that will start punishing these figures, the country that

(44:43):
will start changing its course. That country may get my
support and my participation. Outside of that. No, I'm enjoying
where I am. Okay, lex say, we are streaming live.
I understand. Sorry, for this personal excursion. And I'm reading

(45:05):
the title that Kiev's comeback is trying to interrupt peace
negotiations and he will have to now go into hiding
till the end of his miserable life. Oh, Alexander, wait,
did Medvedev just wake up with his Twitter? Yes? Exactly.
That was the headline from Medvedev's statement, A next president

(45:28):
of Russia? All right, Yeah, I think people will understand
if we see the Rishnik strike from Moscow on Kiev.
All right, if we are concerned about the open hunt
season for Zelenski from Russia, this is understandable. They already

(45:52):
said that they want Zensky out of negotiations and they
likely will make his life miserable. They will perhaps try
to formally or informally to get rid of him. But
Zenanski needed that. I think he was looking for it,
you think so? Of course, his logic is very simple, Alexander. See,
Russia hates me so much that they want me out

(46:14):
of negotiations because they're afraid that I will never give
up on Ukraine. And you can see all those people
who are dumping materials, compromising materials against me. A this
is fake and B if it is not fake. I
may be corrupt, but I'm defending Ukraine. And we've seen
that in Ukraine. Leaders of public opinion in Ukraine with

(46:35):
blue ticks and all, they're saying that already in Ukraine
that yeah, he may be corrupt, but he's fighting against Putin.
This is a public agreement in Ukraine. This is the
societal contract or part of Ukraine thinks this is okay,
that this is a normal state of things. And we
do not see significant political leaders willing to end this,

(46:57):
and we do not know the percentage of people who
want to stop the war. Right. Zelanski is saying Alexey
that eighty five percent want to stop the war. A right,
and according to Zelenska, eighty two percent of Ukrainians do
not want to leave Danietsk region. And today, after this
attack on Russia, after Russia pushed for Zelenski is starting

(47:19):
to push for Zilansky out of negotiations, everything changes again.
So he needs significant support internally, which he already I
think has, and he needs significant allies outside, which he
has again in the face of EU and globalists. And
this can be disarming to Trump and his possible information
leaks about Zlanski's corruption Zelenski is actually, I think, playing

(47:42):
rather successfully against Trump. Trump is continuously making the same mistake.
He's pushing on Zelenski, getting some peace rhetoric. Yes, yes, yes,
of course, let's rerun the elections, Let's do all that.
And then some action happens that stops all that initiative.
So basically he's words to push on Zelensky and then
lets him to reorient to adjust to this situation, and

(48:05):
I think he weakens this effect. This is not how
you do it in politics with Zelensky. This is the
comedy club for you. Zelensky knows how to blame. Okay,
but Zelensky did not score to be a champion in
a comedy club contest. He got to second place. Right Well,

(48:28):
he's quite a champion right now. And it's very difficult
to see what will Trump do now in this situation,
because longer he will push the situation with Ukraine, the
more it will affect his midterm elections. Public opinion is
that if Russians will start actually hunting down Zelenski, they

(48:48):
will create support for him. The problem is that in
Moscow they're not too wise as well, and that's one
of their major problems in Moscow. They might start hunting
Zelensky now, and this will only affect his ratings to
grow higher. Okay, let's say, let's say I'm not going
to disclose political figures who are talking to me, who

(49:11):
are supporting some information. But they're saying that Americans were
informed that all the guarantees of untouchability for Zelenski were annulled.
So Russia is already removing all the stop flags, right,
That's exactly what I'm saying, Alexander. Russians who are not

(49:33):
too smart. The Puttan's cabinet is not a smart one.
They might start hunting Zelenski. Well, what happens if they
do succeed? It's not an easy thing. He has options
to hide, right, His rating will go to one hundred
and sixty five percent. After that, a lot of patriots
in Ukraine will go supporting him, and then there'll be

(49:53):
a story with monuments and the Martyrrian all that, right, right, Alexander,
So they'll post a question in Ukraine, are you for
Puttin in Midvadia who want to kill Zelenski or you
for Zelensky. So Zleanski, playing on the line of certain
personal risk, he provided for a new wave of personal

(50:14):
support in Ukraine and in the world. His position is good. Now, Okay,
what Trump would do. He can publish some horrible, compromising stuff, right,
maybe direct recording of Zelensky where he says that Ukrainian
people are use expletives what Riistovitch was using about the

(50:34):
Ukrainian people and for which I apologize, but yeah, I
was very expressive. So Zelenski will say, first of all,
claim that this is AI editing and that look, I'm
fighting for Ukraine so much that all they are trying
to remove me. This was a very bright move from Zelensky,
and it's much more difficult for Trump to do anything

(50:57):
when he thought that he already got Znanski's support. He
announced that after meeting mar Lago pre mar Lago, that
we're almost in agreement and everything. So this is a
very talented move on Zaransky's behalf. And now I think
mad Putin's cabinet will remove personal guarantees from Zenanski's figure

(51:21):
and that will only spike his writing in the Ukraine
because you're either for Putin or being against Zelenski. That
means for Putin or you're for Zelenski. Now again, you
cannot keep raising stakes, because you might eventually hit the ceiling,
but for now he still has ceiling. But temporarily that

(51:43):
is a significant move, and the life is complex. China
is already starting training exercises near Taiwan. Russia mentioned that
they will support China if anything, and this may be
their answer to Venezuela conflict, and Zdanski might find an
opportunity to stay on history owned for a couple more
years and then maybe Trump will with his cohorts, will

(52:04):
not get reelected. So without any false advertising, this is
a significant move on Sansky's behalf. Yes, he made a
strong move. Now, if Russians were more keen politicians rather
than a bear in a China shop, they would have said, well,

(52:25):
this probably is a provocation of some nationalist and President
Zlansky remains a legitimate person for these elections, and that
would take away this trump card from Zeransky's fault. Okay,
let's say let's look at Russians for a sec They
I think did that for a while in Moscow, they're

(52:48):
getting generals and lieutenants blown up. There are attempts at
lives of known people, some other explosions happening. They never
made it too loud They just said, oh, those are
Islamists and Crocus and the lake. So there is usually

(53:08):
a trace, but they're not really pushing for tracking it, Alexander,
Russians in their current state, they are very straightforward and
they're easy to manipulate. Their object number one was attacked
and they're already prepping Rishnik as a vengance weapon. This
is not elegant politics. They are now going to get

(53:33):
some pushback from Trump. They're already putting Trump in a
difficult position by their action. We understand their logic too.
Of course, they're saying, Trump, solve this problem with Zelenski.
This is your customer. This is a proxy war. Yeah,
you inherited him from Biden the globalists. But solve this
problem for us and then we can continue moving forward

(53:56):
with China, Taiwani and the rest. If you don't, then
and what can you solve, I'm quite sure putting cold
Trump and basically said, this is your responsibility. If you
don't want Taiwine to suffer for your actions around Venezuela,
do something with Zilenski. This is your proxy war, this

(54:17):
is your proxy power. He is still sitting on your
weapons and on your money in Ukraine. And if you
cannot topple Zelensky, what else can you do in this world? Donald?
And that's it. That's very understandable, but primitive logic. Wait wait, wait,
Ale say, this is your argument, and I want to

(54:40):
provide you a counter argument here an that I'm planning
for Russians here. No, no, it's okay, Alexander. I appreciate
where you actually engage like this. All right, okay, I
just want to understand you. For example, did believe that
Washington cab drivers? Right, Let's believe Zelenski for a second.
What if there was no attack, right, let's believe Zelenskin

(55:03):
say they usually launched UAVs. They didn't fly anywhere or
flew somewhere, but all got shot down. Nothing major happened. Now,
let's look at this angle. They took off the Russian
see that this is negotiations. They observed the negotiations, and

(55:26):
during the conversation of Lensk and Trump they say, well,
one of our significant command out posts was attacked. Trump
is shocked. He says he did not know. So an
important thing, if this indeed is a lie, Trump was
not aware of that, and it is an interesting discreditation move.

(55:48):
And I think this is a little more elegant. I
apologize for Medvedev's twitter here with a guarantee of security
for Zelensky and all denunciation. Now Zelenski's guarantees are removed,
so he may forget about visiting the front and visiting

(56:12):
his fighters at the front. That is crumbling, that is suffering,
that is facing difficult times. You may lose control over
your army. You do not have that much influence. You
are not strong. You cannot take pictures near Kupinsk Stella
because your security guarantees are removed. He will be in

(56:34):
key event in Europe. He'll be a European president of Ukraine,
but not the Ukrainian president of Ukraine. So one can
play this angle here at Alexander. This logic only works
on the level of Trump to persuade him to make
certain actions. Okay, let's imagine there was no attack and
Russian leadership still says we need to come to an agreement.

(56:58):
Zelenski doesn't want to move, Let's remove him. Let's create
a situation where we need to remove Zelenski and put
the conditions that his participation would be intolerable. But this
all is broken by one simple thing that Americans can
figure out whether the attack happened or not with all

(57:18):
the surveillance on the satellite imagery, and all Americans will
know whether this attack happened. And if you see that
the situation actually happened while Russian side is lying about it,
or you know, they didn't fly and Russia is lying,
that puts put In in a bad light. Put In

(57:40):
understands that I think, okay, I think that spirit of anchurage.
You'll like say no, no, it's not about the spirit of anchorage.
Negotiations are happening. The negotiation process is happening. They do communicate,
they are figuring out. Remember how long it too put

(58:00):
In a Trump to talk over the phone, and these
days they have two conversations a week. So the process
is happening. And I don't see them writing this situation
on a simple act of lie. So most likely we
do not have full confirmation. But whether if you analyze

(58:24):
the situation, it seems that it is most likely is
a Lenscas move Russians. I don't see them lying in
this way. America has satellites, they have agents, they can
easily track whether this thing happened. And this is a
very important command out post. Of course it is being observed.

(58:45):
I think they're tracking the spike in communications. They might
even be able to decipher the communications. But of course
that can be presented as the radio game, but that's
not how it works. Maybe a scumeback, but I don't
see him lying that he was attacked when your other

(59:08):
party can actually check whether you were attacked. And right,
this will also lead you to being weak, to present
certain weakness to your own and in Russia you have
to be strong. Right, whom can you defend? Like Stealin said,
if you cannot defend yourself. Russia has that somewhat of
a thuggish line of thought in the leadership. Why is

(59:28):
he talking about that? Because his oligarchs born in nine
from the nineteen nineties actions, They are asking him questions
like back in the nineties, you got moltive cocktail thrown
in your restaurant. You got to respond to that, right.
So they're very often working in this logic, not in
political logic. If they were more in a Byzantine style

(59:53):
of politics, as they like to present themselves, they would
say differently. They would say that Zelenski's nationally are making mistakes.
They don't understand what they're doing. And listen, this means
that America should limit and Europe should limit attacking capabilities
for Ukraine because it cannot control what they have. And

(01:00:16):
the landscap remains a legitimate president and we can talk
to him. So such a Judas kiss Alexai, right, right,
but they cannot do that. They're working in a more
thuggish logic in this case. Okay, I'll hold on to
your thought here. Then why is Trump saying that he
needs strong Ukraine? Or he didn't say strong Ukraine, right right,

(01:00:37):
he said flourishing Ukraine, flourishing. So everybody was laughing at
this here. But let's look at the statement as a
political maneuver from Makaevilian logic. Can some other leader not
put in say that the position of Russia on the

(01:00:58):
western borders directly depends upon the situation and the life
of its neighbors, and we're building individual relations with each neighbor,
separately and brotherly Ukraine, And again that's not put in
that some other leader. Let's say, who is saying that
Ukraine went through difficult times of the War of twenty fourteen,

(01:01:20):
of that military special military operation that Russia conducted against it.
We need to make sure that social and economic situation
in Ukraine are such that they would not lead the
population to go destitute. That will let people grow and flourish,
so that would not lead to more explosions of a

(01:01:43):
social style in Ukraine, so the country would continue going
in a steady way of developing countries developed countries. So,
for example, make sure that Ukraine has cheap electricity as
the basis for it's flourishing. Can that leader hypothetically say that,
of course you can. Most likely he would and could.

(01:02:07):
But here one needs to pay attention to a very
irregular behavior of Russian politics. They are the hostages of
their own system, and mikay Eli said that in Latin,
repeated that that external politics is a continuation of internal politics,
because Russia is not treacherous enough to be a byzantine

(01:02:31):
in external relations. But when they're being attacked with UAVs
on the central command outpost, then their thakish logic turns
on and they're generally prone to being thaggish. So first
they need to respond for such attack. Second, Trump needs
to also present his manhood that he's capable of stopping

(01:02:51):
all this stuff and is not just a toy, a
parlor toy for Zenansky and Europe. And that's why from
the Thakish point of view, they are presenting it. They're
playing their card they usually know how to play. End
of the first hour, m

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