War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1411: Capture of Venezuela. Start of the Campaign Against Russia & China. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Greetings, dear friends, guests, subscribers to my channel, to Alexai's channels.
This is our first stream of twenty twenty six and
the first stream on my channel, the first stream on
the Alexis channel on this twenty twenty six year. So
happy new year, Yeah, happy new year. Hopefully it'll be

(00:28):
one that brings some luck and joy to people. All right,
So the events are unfolding, significant events. Maduro is already
being presented at the court in New York, at the
judge rather in New York, and he's saying he's president
who's been kidnapped. So it's interesting to observe this specific

(00:53):
event and discuss it whether the international law was used
properly or was pretty much you then dumped the way
the Strong Party sees feed. So there'll be a lot
of geopologics today, and of course we'll talk about the
specific events in Ukraine. Thank you very much for following
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(01:15):
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to stay alive. And yeah, we appreciate you being here.

(01:38):
All right, So we will also have Q and A
the usual, but the beginning of the show we have
a usual question with optional answers. Capture of Madua and
extradition to the United States is option one. It's a
show and agreed upon set of events with Maduro. Second option,

(02:01):
it's all about oil and treachery in Caracas, that there
was a treason and somebody basically let him sail down
the river. And the third option is whether it is
perhaps a special military operation by Trump and his heim
is here or it is the bottom and the burial

(02:21):
moment for the international law. So these are four options.
They're not mutually exclusive, but please try to pick the
one that you think is closest to reality. Alexei, what
would you pick here? Oh? I would have picked the
last one. It's everything together. The moment that really concerns

(02:43):
us down in Ukraine is whether the Venezuela operation is
in exchange of Venezuela for Ukraine. Basically that Russia was
given Ukraine and the United States to Venezuela. It's a
different though. When Putin said, I'm going to show EU
and America that they're not allowed next to our borders

(03:06):
and invaded Ukraine, same thing is what America is doing.
They're showing to China, to Russia and the rest that
we will not tolerate your influence next to our interests.
So and I'm quite sure that in the months to follow,
their likely will be more surprises, perhaps Cuba, Greenland, Columbia.

(03:27):
Interesting things may happened in Mexico as well because American
administration Trump administration issued revived the doctrine of national security
and they started to realize that and they're realizing it
full steam ahead. And their task is to cleanse their

(03:50):
hemisphere from Russian and Chinese influence, become the leading power
there without any questions. And this has reached turned to
Monroe doctrine from the politics of Wilson from the First
World War until which they were following Monroe doctrine and

(04:10):
then they decided to take a military trip to Europe
and participate in the First World War, and that led
to Versailles piece that peace accords of the First World
War that put Germany in a position to start the
Second World War. So today we are seeing America, witnessing
America using the Monroe doctrine. Returning back to it, then

(04:33):
one can ask a question whether China and Russia have
their right for zones of influence. For example, Russia thinks
that their zone of influence is not even the countries
that were part of USSR, but the countries that border
the countries that were part of USSR. And here one
thing is to consider that, to think so, the other

(04:53):
is to be able to realize it. I do not
think there was any pre agreement with Maduro. Same thing
it didn't work with Ukraine between Ukraine and Russia, because
if there was any agreement, Maduro would have flown to
United States himself. Well, Alex say, we are observing a
lot of publications in different media saying that he was

(05:15):
taken when he was sleeping, that some publications mentioned that
maybe some ribs of his wife suffered during the capture.
It just looks very picture like that he was caught
while he was sleeping. There's some helicopters flying freely over Caracas,
special forces landing on the roof of his buildings, and
he woke up. He ran to his bunker, grasped the

(05:38):
handle to go down, and they caught him at the
last moment. And Trump mentions that they had special blowtorches
to extract him if he succeeded in locking himself up. Well,
one can ask that a few hours before that they
were Chinese there before the capture, perhaps there was a
discussion and maybe they conveyed a message Maduro did not misbehave.

(05:58):
He'll be alive. They will capture you. And China is
already saying that we'll be able to provide his security
if anything, and you can come back to us. So
maybe it's some sort of an operation agreed between the parties, right, Alexander.
But if he ends up being executed, okay, alex say

(06:21):
in twenty seven, the legal process will go full steam, right,
that's when the court proceedings will actually happen. There are
some American lawyers ready to practice their skills in this process.
One position is that he is illegitimate in the court
because he's a president of a foreign country and everything
may take a long time, and Trump, in his another

(06:44):
negotiation with China, might actually trade Maduro for something. Well,
look the things with Cadafi lasted for quite a few years,
and you know how it ended. With Hussein it lasted
for twenty years, and you know how it ended. So
timeframe is not really a big factor here. What can
be a factor, I think is that if China attacks

(07:06):
Taiwan and the United States did not intervene, that might
be an indicator. But Venezuela is not an adequate exchange
for Taiwan, although it depends how you look at it.
They have big reserves of oil and some other minerals.
Life will show. But what's important here is that Russia
and China are kicked out Venezuela, and the Trump is

(07:30):
getting a very strong lever to affect the oil market
of this planet, including the countries of OPEC, because those
are problematic relations and that will take some time. It
probably will be a year year and a half for
American industries oil industry to rebuild what was already crumbling

(07:52):
in Venezuela. And I don't think that can be explained
with any pre agreements, because there is no exchange that
Russia and China can get for letting America take Venezuela
and building a specific big red lever that they can
use to affect the markets of the world. Well, then,

(08:13):
alex say, if this is a game, is a play
a move made by Trump who actually observed somebody in
the betting universe, somebody placed thirty seven thousand dollars on
a bet that China will invade Taiwan this year. So

(08:35):
they're saying that China is going to get Taiwan, Russia, Ukraine,
and the United States are getting Venezuela. Okay, Alexandra, but
how can one realize that practically, speaking of Taiwan, America
recently supplied eleven billion dollars worth of weapons to Taiwan.
Is that also a contractual agreement between States and China?

(08:57):
How does that play into that worldview? Because that is
adding thousands of more potentially dead Chinese soldiers attacking Taiwan
just that deal, because America is supplying strong defenses. So
this doesn't really fit into this mold. Eleven billier weapons
deal doesn't fit into any pre agreement with China. Putin

(09:22):
physically cannot take Ukraine the way he wanted to. He
was given the Ukraine by Biden administration basically long time ago.
Remember when Putin was invading. We in Ukraine had what
four javelins and poorly shooting stingers at that time. That
was all the help we had from states. Ukraine basically

(09:43):
was fending off Russia till the end of May, but
realistically more till September. From February, so for half a
year just with whatever we had in our status, all
these en laws and other weapons supplied. End laws were
supplied with weak accumula. The batteries were out of date.

(10:04):
They were supplied to us. Most of them were over
nine years old and nine years the threshold were and
then accumulator dies, so our inventors had to figure out
how to use small moped accumulators batteries or some other
ones to power them up for a shot. So Ukraine
was basically given it just disagreed with that. You can

(10:25):
look at the publications of American ambassador what did they
say before leaving, how CIA director visited Moscow, probably discussing
the rules of capture of Ukraine by Russia. Pultn't just
failed to take it, because the Ukraine is a huge
thing to swallow, and it's only some guys like Portnikov

(10:47):
can state that Russia can consume the whole Ukraine. They
may aspire to, but physically it's unsolvable task for them.
Even if we do not get any more sent of
supplies or bullet from our allies, Russia will not have
enough resources to capture it. Or even if Ukraine somehow surrenders,
they will not have enough administrative resources to manage it.

(11:09):
Because look, just for the last year, they spent over
one hundred and twenty billion rubles on the captured territories
and don Bass and they are not even noticeable. They
build a few buildings in Mariubl and don Bas and
that's it. You don't see where the money were spent.
This is a colossal black hole. And I would say,

(11:32):
even if I wanted to weaken Russia, I would give
Ukraine to Russia if I was Trump, because that stone
would sink them with a very high reliability in a
very small puddle. But nobody can play like that, and
they're not going to and I do not believe in
agreements like that. Nobody can come out and say let's
exchange Taiwan for Venezuela or Ukraine, because if anybody leaks

(11:55):
that piece of information, that'll be a huge scandal because
presidents are being listened to by a lot of people,
their guards, their wives, their service people, translators, a bunch
of people around this process. So that would be a
full catastrophe for them. Like say, we could then be
studying it as a Munich agreement in the history. No,

(12:16):
that'll be a catastrophe. I do not believe in that. Okay,
So here we can talk about Russian billions in the
new occupied territories. They do have a couple projects about
building railroad and automobile road connecting Crimea with the southern territories,
so they do have where to invest these moneys. Sure, yeah,

(12:39):
there are plans, there are projects, but where do you
take this money? One hundred and twenty billion rules, that's
a big amount for them. They are trying to threaten
everybody with a nuclear war when they're two hundred billion
or being captured by Europe of the assets, so that's
a lot of money. They'll just go bankrupt if they

(13:02):
really will proceed with all these projects in the occupied
territories and if Ukraine will just provide a minimum of resilience,
not even any CIA or special agents blowing up the
stations and people in vehicles. No, just people ignoring the orders,
leaving to different parts of the country, depopulating the area,

(13:22):
misbehaving in terms of not following orders. Like I said,
you're talking about Ukraine per chance, well right, but yeah,
for Russia, just these four districts they want to occupy,
if they ever succeed, will be very problematic to manage,
and I think they do understand that. So I do
not believe in such an exchange. I can give it

(13:43):
maybe a couple percent for such a deal territorial international deal,
but I am very skeptical of any pre agreements. I've
seen how the international politics are made, and everything is
way more primitive than you can even imagine. Pre agreement
is a multi step thing in politics. It's very difficult

(14:08):
to conduct even a two step operation. To be successful.
In a two step operation, you have a very strong team,
very well functioning, oiled political machine to figure out how
to and to make sure that two step schema works.
But three step forget about it. Exchange like that multi
step conspiracy trade of one territory for another that's only

(14:32):
in the beliefs of conspiracy theories somewhere in Russia. Okay,
Like I said, let's go to inner politics and some
Russian things. But before we do that, let's conclude the
matter with Madua. One can say that this is a
completely illegal operation or lawless. Rather, what do you mean?

(14:54):
They did what they could. He has powers, Trump has powers,
and he use them against the legitimate target for him. Well,
you know, it kind of just looked like a little funny,
but du were in this sports suit. Now football players
in Europe putting on this sports suit, showing off, saying, hey,
we're rich too, we can order that now, okay, America

(15:17):
got Maduro in. They're following with this noise. Europe is
very mum. Europe is very quiet, and they're not doing
anything in this regard except for some media screaming bloody murder.
And more and more data comes out that Britz didn't
know that this operation was underway. So you can probably

(15:38):
imagine how the coalition of the willing for Ukraine is
looking like a kid put back in a corner. Well, Alexander,
Europe is thinking about another problem. They're thinking about what
will happen if a similar operation in some capacity will
be conducted against Greenland and America is aimed at the

(15:59):
choiring this territory one way or the other. And like
the Prime Minister of Denmark said that we need to
treat Trump's threats very realistically and she would not put
this statement without believing it. But this would mean the
end of NATO. And what will happen with Europe if
NATO collapses, Well then it probably will start with one

(16:25):
NATO member taking territory of another NATO member, one that
is much bigger and stronger, that can just do it,
and you will not really have any chances to fight
America off Greenland. So Europe has a ton of things
to think about. But whether condemned or not condemned, that's
another thing. You know. Now American politicians are probably very

(16:49):
inspired by recent events, and you can only imagine what
they can what they might answer to Europeans if they
express any protestations, and there may be consequences to that.
So Europe is sitting quite thinking it over. And I
think this is a good sign that there is no
pre arranged deal here, that they're really concerned. What if

(17:13):
we will be affected in the same fashion somehow, or
maybe our proxy interests will be affected in this matter.
So they're all puzzled and they're all actively thinking and
the United States have prepared enough and starting to realize
their mono doctrine. So from the military standpoint, how would
you estimate this what's happening in Venezuela. Well, for that

(17:33):
you would need to know more details. Alexander, I'm sure
we're being given maybe five percent of what really happened.
What we can say is that the likely was a
group that was dragging him. And if vice President is
now the head of administration in Venezuela and she declared
the force major in the country, and one can say

(17:59):
some of the act are leading to believe that maybe
there were discussions with her previously or some powers around her.
And the fact that Maduro had some bodyguards from Cuba
that might be an indicator that he's not really trusting
his own forces. So they might might have been some
discussions as to possibly inheriting his power after his Minister

(18:22):
of Defense is making some scary noises. But yeah, that's
at this point is pointless. Remember when the United States
invaded Iraq in two thousand and three, how many Iraqi
generals were purchased, at least a couple dozen, And that's
normal modus oprande for the West. They never go relying

(18:43):
on luck. They usually organize and plan their activities, their events, operations.
And I can give three characteristics to NATO and Western operations. One,
they're saying, none of our soldiers died. And the main
conclusion that was made by the chief of military in
the United States, the head of Chiefs of Staff. He's

(19:06):
saying that we have shown that our technical and organizational
advantage is indisputable. And this is their basic element of pride,
because Western armies work only and then when they are
technical and organizational advantage is inarguable. If they do not

(19:27):
have that, they very likely will not even conduct the
operation unless this is an exclusive situation. So when people
are screaming that Trump showed put In how to conduct
military operations, I want to say that Trump and put
In are very different models of war fighting. It was
much more difficult for Putting to agree to his military

(19:47):
operation because between United States and Venezuela, the difference between
Venezuela and army and the American army. A United States
army is huge, army is five plus level, Venezuela is
probably three minus. And Russia had no advantage over Ukraine
except for numeral Qualitatively Russia was not any way better

(20:11):
than Ukrainian army, and that's why everything is so slow
and bloody, and that's why it was much more difficult
for Pujin to make a decision unlike Trump. So here
one can laugh at Puchin, but then I would ask
why between the laughs you're writing other posts saying that
if you do not stop him, he will win, right,

(20:33):
And you can also think that Puchin went to that
war of his life. One can say without having much
chances for success. He even has lost the first part
of the invasion and then eventually gathered his will together
and resources together, and is slowly grinding by willpower and

(20:56):
resources the front in Ukraine. And it's three hundred times
more difficult and bloody than what Trump has done in Venezuela.
And one thing is lending your special forces on the
rooftops in Caracas, knowing that you can trace most of
people because there were special trail trackers placed in their things.

(21:19):
That's a whole other level of operation versus one. You
throw a Russian army to say Gastomel Airport near Kiev,
and despite the promises and some network like Midvichuk saying
that everybody will be greeting you with flowers, mister Putin,
this was a much more risky operation, and that's why
it's difficult to compare. That's why one can say that

(21:40):
they're somewhat alike in regards to the way these operations
treat the international law. All these arguments about the international
law make me giggle and leave the room, because politics
is always upstream from law. Politics is the thing determining
the international law to reference a political action. A capture

(22:03):
of a president to a neighbor country is a political action.
And trying to explain that with the international law, this
is not even putting the carriage in front of the horse.
This is total misunderstanding of how things work. So these
two operations, politically they are somewhat similar, there are some similarities,
but technically they are absolutely incomparable. They're very different. Russian model.

(22:29):
Putin's model implies a fight against the enemy, even if
the enemy is exceeding in capabilities and numbers. Russia is
historically ready to fight whoever attacks it or whatever threat
they see, regardless of calculations. In the West, as the
concept is different. Remember Chamberlain who was appeasing Hitler, giving

(22:50):
Britain time to prepare for this looming conflict. In my
beIN in a misunderstood figure, he was biting time, buying
time for a Britain, and that's why the West will
fight only in the extraordinary circumstances when there is no
other option. In my view, the capture of Maduro is

(23:12):
I'm trying to compare it with It's as if Ukrainian
special swat unit would have captured a director of Kindergarten.
That's my comparison. And for Putin, comparing that operation with
Putin's war, that would be military Spatsnas fighting with that

(23:35):
same swat unit. That's why what we're seeing in Ukraine
is different. So I understand that it's difficult for people
to love their enemies, but that's for the strong ones.
For the weak ones at least, do not imagine stories
that do not exist and do not spread rumors. Did
not smear everybody with claims, all right, I like say,

(23:59):
there are other things now appealing to Zelenski, and some
people are saying, oh, Zelenski, you saw what happened to Maduro,
You'd better behave with Trump. I want to look at
it from a different angle. Though it is Orthodox Christmas,
the night before Christmas and in Europe, as it was told,

(24:21):
Kushnir and Witkov will be participating in the meeting of
the Coalition of the Willing the heads of states. And
before this meeting, there were different statements made from somewhat
funny like Zenansky is saying Trump wants to increase the
average pay in Ukraine threefold, two very weird ones that

(24:44):
without any mandate French and British troops if there will
be any agreement about ceasefire, that Britain and friends might
send their troops to the Ukraine's territory. Many people are
laughing at this, and they're saying that no negotiations. Russia

(25:06):
is changing the terms and positions according to recent statements,
and they've done it on the backdrop of the recent
scandal with the Ukrainian drones attacking special command center and
Puddin's residents in the same complex. So some people are saying,

(25:26):
let's just bury this peace tracks. Are you burying them?
What's your take on the vector of this situation. Well,
I'm not burying the peace process. Russia actually is somewhat
muffling their anger about the drones attacking their special basis.
They communicated with Vitkov, and they came to some agreement.

(25:48):
But as for discussing and some people saying that it's
unacceptable for Russia that European troops will be in Ukraine,
that's laughable in my view because if you see, for example,
Turkish troops in Ukraine, there definitely was some agreement with Russia.
I will tell you more, the troops in Ukraine will

(26:09):
be mostly not to stop Russia from invading, but to
prevent civil war breaking out in Ukraine. That'll be against
Ukrainian insurgencies rather than external threats. So like in Bosnia,
Europe had done placing some of the European troops, and
I think they do understand the difficulty of situation where

(26:32):
you have one and a half million automatic rifles with
the population, and about a million of these population with
military experience. So nobody will just put it this way,
and nobody will say that this is for pacifying and
keeping situation controlled in Ukraine, and it will be dressed
as if to prevent Putin, to be peacekeepers against Putin's invasion,

(26:57):
but the real purpose of these troops is different. So
I'm seeing that, no, it's not an issue. French troops
British troops, Turkish troops could be seen in Ukraine and
landscape or one of the congressmen maybe is definition made
a statement that by the end of February they will
have new updated laws for election to hold this year.

(27:20):
And if you consider that to be correct, then perhaps
by the end of February they will be at some
agreement point about elections in Ukraine. And if they were
screaming disagreements as were being told by some media channels
about don Bass about nuclear stations in the south, then

(27:42):
no agreements, no discussions of that caliber would be happening.
So these are mutual things that are being discussed. For example,
Ukraine's agreement to give some part of nuclear energy to
Russia in exchange for a presence of EU troops in
the country. That's only Koshabo, and I think Senanski understands

(28:04):
the value of it too. But let's say if you
have about ten to fifteen thousand foreign troops being at
the electoral outposts, electoral campaign posts, it likely will guarantee
a much smoother process than if they would not be there.

(28:24):
Because one needs to understand that there are a lot
of precursors to a civil war in Ukraine because it's
not about good people loving Bulgakov literature versus bad people
who do not love Bulgakov. It is, for example, a
combination of Beletskin Budanav as one group of power persons

(28:45):
power agencies against Zulutioni and Kadri military around him. Because
only dumb and blind would not understand that coalition of
Beletskin pudanav are very friendly to each other and they
have issues with Zulus and his supporters. One can see
how the Third Corps is conducting their operations and how

(29:08):
they force country officers to unite against Mudhonov and Velenski
and support Delutionni. That's why Zelensky is working actually, that
theory of using different agencies, different power centers to fight

(29:29):
each other. He's rather successful in doing it. And also,
if you believe some independent polling in the country, since
last year, there have been a significant trend for losing
the percentage of support by military as future presidential figures.

(29:52):
It touches even SOLUTIONI because he was I think thirty
six and according to the recent one he's only twenty nine.
Recent polling hask me where it comes from, Zelensky only
has about twenty percent, Zaluzi has twenty two and independent
centrist candidate would have twenty four percent. What does it
show is that people are ready to accept maybe forty

(30:15):
percent even among their congress representing by military officers, and
forty percent is acceptable, but they do not want to
see a military figure as a president. They I think,
start to understand that supreme leader also determines the foreign

(30:37):
policies and if it will be a military person, it
likely will mean continuation of war in one way or
the other. That's why these people will be fighting for
the presidential position and for competition and their support in
the Congress. Now I have a question to post when
some heroes of Ukraine will be very tempted to throw
a grenade, shoot or launch a UAV into the other

(31:00):
hero of Ukraine, and when they will start doing it,
what would French, British and Turkish patrols who are positioned
next to election campaign outlets election posts, how will they
affect the situation? Right? Because probably throwing a grenade at

(31:21):
the Allied troops is not a good idea and they
somehow likely will stabilize the process. And also I want
to underscore here that the presence of troops is also
additional lever for Europe to monitor that Ukraine is following
its obligations, because years of negotiations before that that have

(31:42):
shown to Europe that Ukrainian heroes are very prone to
not following the agreements or rules that they have agreed
to some time before. So the observers these allied troops
present in Ukraine will be not only to deter Russia
further attacks, but also and probably mostly, to prevent issues

(32:03):
within Ukraine. And now do you think Russia would be
interested in allowing such influence to happen? Logically, Alex say,
I want to say here that maybe people will spin
it saying that, oh, that's another way to tell Russians
that listen, you've been had again. Look there is native

(32:23):
in Ukraine. Well, it will be presented in Ukraine and
officially as here we are saving Ukraine from Russia. But
if you're a realist, what can ten or fifteen thousand
troops do to stop Russia? Nothing? Even fifty thousand is nothing.
One hundred and fifty two hundred thousands now we're talking,

(32:46):
that would be a significant force. All these smaller numbers
there may be barely enough to make sure that the
elections would be done legally and honestly, because Europe also
understands that they cannot trust Ukraine and recent story with
the drones attacking Putin's residence is also a stone to
that target. Alexei, Why did Zelenski bring Budanav so close

(33:11):
to power? What other options did he have, Alexander, he
needs the head of the office, he needs to prepare
for elections and other things. Well, a couple of weeks
ago he was saying that I'll work with the agencies,
I don't need any persons. Well, that was done as
the cover, Alexander, he would rather work with the vertical,
with the select few people. If you look at his

(33:33):
inner circle, Maria Elepchenka, the Secretary of President from back
of his days in the comedy club, an absolutely trusted
person by him. Her husband Tigilashulie, who was seen with Budanav,
who actually lobbied Budanav's appointment, and there was a scandal

(33:54):
when he and Budanav were noticed at the house of
one Russian gray economic figure. I think Kutch as a journalist,
brought the story up, and when the Deputy Minister of
Police was by press for some corrupt schemes he was
allegedly participating in Budanav took him as his second and

(34:14):
gave him the military status of lieutenant colonel. So what
Zelenski is relying upon, he is relying upon the inner
circle a lot. Always look all these motions of Schmigel

(34:34):
and Fyodorov and Maluk and the other Ardea's figures. This
shows you that in this brothel there are not even
a dozen of beds that you can rearrange. He has
maybe six beds left, and he's trying to organize these
six poorly effective managers to get some use out of them.

(34:56):
The store of Schmigel is already quite a store. Right,
people were laughing that he should have been very good
fit for Venezuela. And another joke. Right, Alexander says that
if you want to read something dramatic, you can read
his resume. Even Koleba was mentioned today, Kuleba, who already

(35:18):
said a lot of things about Zelensky about Ukrainian politics,
that next that we will lose this conflict if we
continue this way, that the next offers on the table
will be worse than what we had before. And yet
they're still trying to poach him for taking some position.
So they're already concentrating the concentrated power in a small

(35:41):
group of people. Zelensky maybe has eight people, ten people
he can rely upon among the whole vertical. So why
did Budanav agree to that. That's almost like signing a
death political death accord for himself. Oh no, he is
a different one needs to understand what Budanav is. Bodanav
has his own views and aspirations to the position of

(36:03):
the president because and not because of the last factor.
He's being his people who surround him, who support him,
and they could be Valley Condertuk and some other people
behind them. I think Bilisky and Budana's already have figured
that Zelenski is gone politically very soon. And it's the

(36:28):
situation when you don't know whether there's are bodyguards or
a convoy, and when is the moment when your bodyguards
turn on you. So Biliansky and Budana are fighting their
own game, and Zelenski is trying to use them against
Zaluzhi to basically hope that each of them will sink enough. Well,

(36:50):
they all think that they can sing Zelenski enough and
maybe take a position when it presents open. And this
is an ideation that they've been walking towards. Some of
them were since twenty twenty. Here Mark is out of
the picture to a degree now. So now they're getting
Budhanav and Biletski up and frankly Budanav's people surrounding Zelenski.

(37:13):
They are more of a convoy than a bodyguard. And
I want to remind you the story of Pinochet, Pinochet
who took over Alanda. Half a year before that, there
was another attempt at coup, but that was not done
by for Alejander's friends, and Pinochet came and said that, hey,
there is a coup against you, and he helped to

(37:35):
squabble the first one. It was very quick, There were
no tanks on the street. There were a dozen officers
arrested and that was it. And when half a year
later there was another coup in the works and Aleenda
was given materials. KGB was telling or telling him that
you have your own people working against you. He was
telling them that, hey, your idiots. If he wanted to

(37:56):
topple me, he could have done it half a year
ago with the other idiots. But he was the one
who helped me to get rid of the previous coup.
And even when he got all the materials proving that
the Pinochette is working against him, he pinochet just said, Hey,
I'm telling them that I work against you, but I'm
a double agent. I'm actually working for you. And that's

(38:19):
a usual strategy. You can find that and all the
cias and kgbs of the world. And of course that's
what Buddhadov and let's scare telling Zelanski that we will
save you from Nabu, will save you from the Allies,
we will save you from all the other things. We
have the power, the forces, and you will be much
safer with us. But Zlansky is also not the first

(38:40):
day on this planet, and he is also intriguing against them.
So you will see by the way he brings more
people and how he positions one against the other that
he's got some steam to run on as well. But
everybody is getting ready for huge changes during the post
war period, and many see that as their lucky card
as they future when it will start unfolding. And I

(39:04):
want to say that even more than Budanav and Bilietsky,
they also Budanav may see Bilietsky as a friend as
an ally, but Biliedski also has his own plans and aspirations,
so they might eventually have a fallout falling out between themselves.
I know this company to a degree, and I want

(39:25):
once again to underscore that Zelensky is playing the game
of having those chained dogs close to himself, who will
be squabbling against each other, and who'll be helping him
to defeat his enemies. The ideation of Budanav is to
topple Zelenski at the right moment. The aspirations that Bilitski

(39:49):
has is to either topple Budanav later or use him
as the train to propel himself into the circles of power.
The main question is what is the idea that's illusionary harbors.
But he's playing a very good Chinese strategym to never
acknowledge anything until it happens, which is ratherwise, so he's

(40:09):
staying quiet about all of that. Look, all of that
has the backstage, and French troops, Turkish troops, British troops.
They'll be hopefully holding the stage all of the power
figures in the Ukrainian politics. They went there for certain aspirations.
Many of them want to and do see themselves as president.

(40:32):
And that's why all these people will try, probably to
follow the funny people saying that to sudden turns and
suddenly it is you who are being had. They'll probably
try to follow this schema. So le, I say, would
you agree with the statement that Zenensky's power will be

(40:52):
weakening in the practical meaning of this word, and American
influence will be taking over the British influence. Look, Alexander,
there is an opinion that humans are the descendants of
from monkeys, but quoting professionals, humans are monkeys, just a

(41:18):
very special branch of the monkey evolution. So the key
here is that to answer your question, I would say,
whether Zanansky's power will get weaker, it is weakened already.
Otherwise they would not be on that were shuffling happening,
would not be observing that if his power would not

(41:39):
be weak, he would not need to exchange your mark
for somebody, especially for Budanav. So he already has a
diminishing circle of people around him. And if Ukrainians who
vouch who still support Ukraine's victory over Putin for the country,
if they could make us step away from this situation.

(42:01):
They would probably not find anything more comedic than the
resumes and the life vectors of Kuleba, Maluk and Schmigal
look forty million worth. Country fails in a critical moment,
for the country cannot present a couple dozen bright figures

(42:21):
who are capable to carry this country over the abyss
and all our choices five very we wicked persons. So
this is an indicator that Zelensky's power is not weak,
just weak. It's like if you're trying to keep the
tooth that is completely decayed and missing most of it,

(42:44):
and you're trying to still cement what's left. And why
do you think that Budanav is an influence of the
United States. Well, the publications in Ukraine are saying that
Budana for when the United States was not taking pictures,
be met with some people in the military or CIA. Well,

(43:05):
Budanav has some connections in the military of the United States,
but not with the CIA. And I can tell you
that CIA actually did ask with materials and prove they'd
ask Zelensky to remove Budanav from the position that he
was occupying. And Zelensky almost made this decision twice. So

(43:26):
all these stories that Budanov has very good relations with
the United States, one wants to ask here, remember the
Civil War in the movie when some people go in
the car being stopped by a soldier yelling at him, hey,
we are Americans, and he asks them what kind of
Americans you are? Americans are very different. I can also

(43:47):
say that I have very good relations with Americans, especially
with the owner of a neighbor hot dog stand. I
love to talk to the guy about life and things.
So let's my friends. I understand my opinion is just
an opinion of the downed pilot. I want to say that,

(44:14):
just for entertainment, consider different scenarios, not what is being
fed to you by our media and Ukraine. And the
most upsetting for me is how very for sale all
this supposed to be people of power in Ukraine. Are

(44:34):
Budana's appointment yesterday with all the owners and stuff, that
he's likely friends with Americans, that there will be a
peace trend now this nation of warriors of light as
they're presenting themselves, or like in the other movie, remember
these are people. No, these are not people. These are
much worse. They are the best people of the city.

(44:57):
So that's what they are here. Mark was there shining
start two days ago. Now buddhanav and he's getting all
these praise and everything. All our doctors of economic sciences,
our leading bloggers, our leading social figures in the media.
They're all now telling stories that even kindergarten kids would

(45:19):
not believe. And they're licking his shoes to such a
degree that even during Bolshevik times that didn't happen in
regards to Stalin to such a degree. I like say,
I think Maluke is a great example of such a story.
Wusik and the other people are coming out and supporting him,

(45:41):
saying that Maluke cannot be replaced. Everybody is standing for him. No,
he was replaced when the decision was made. Yeah, I'm
curious about whether they'll stand the same way for the
next way when the next wave of replacement comes. People
are just eating the legends they are being fed from
the TV marathon. The society at large does know who

(46:04):
Maluk is and who really is the author of the
successes that security services of Ukraine present as his achievements.
I will not gonna say un name names now, but
when the war is over, I will be able to
do that. I just don't want to. Well, it's already known, right, Alexei. Well, no, no, no,

(46:26):
But who says that Maluk was the organizer? There are
other people organizing that, Alexei. We're fish, okay in Ukraine,
We're not the smallest fish. But we are seeing that
Zelensky is giving Maluk an award for the Spiderweb operation,
and a couple of days ago they're writing that Maluk

(46:46):
should not be removed. He is preparing something else. And
then later it was presented that it was Jmara, who
is now the second in command and who is appointed
interim lead. Apparently it was him who was developing the
spider Web operation. Wait a second. If Jmara was the

(47:08):
author and Maluk has got the hero of Ukraine, why
is that? Oh, Alexander, I was about to tell you,
if you dig deeper, it will not be Hmara either.
And that's why I don't want to name names right now.
But there is a very gentle thing there. We can

(47:28):
despise or accuse people who are feeding us this information,
who are inventing the legends that have no relation to reality,
and people whom they put on pedestal very often are
just corruption heres and criminals, and when everything will come
to light, they will probably be horrified. All those people
whom they congratulate these days with their birthdays, all these

(47:50):
heroes and commanders, all these heroes of Ukraine, many of
them have very significant black spots on their biography. And
then you cannot blame people for that. They believe the
legends because they don't have other sources. But there is
another category. There is a category that have resources, money,
they could have at least abstained from supporting these legends,

(48:14):
but they are being very servile because they see some
benefits for themselves, their businesses, their operations. There is, for example,
a KCO club in club in Ukraine, the Club of
Directors of Companies. They very often had strayamk Butudana visiting
their meetings and they were always praised and supported. And

(48:39):
while they're saying that they do worry about the destiny
of the country, in reality they very often worry more
about providing the corruption support to their businesses because good
contacts with power that can help you build business very
often cross that gray line from being po are into

(49:00):
being corruption. And it's just amazing for me to see
these people of power being so servile. One friend of
mine said, I spent nine years trying to teach them
some good, some principled behavior, with the responsibility that they

(49:22):
and resources they have on their shoulders. I was really
upset when I saw how servile they are when they
have access to power. And yeah, this is another group
of people who are And again there is another degree
here that some businessmen, at least there're servile to a
degree that it benefits their business. But there are others

(49:43):
who are completely drowning in praise and praising the people,
the political figures, who are doing it with such abandonment
that you start to think, wait a second, what's happening
with you. It reminds me of the Twelve Moments Spring movie,
when one of the Hitler's generals asked during the conversation

(50:06):
at the last days of war. He's saying that stop
making fools of people. There are so many fools around
I don't even know whom to talk anymore. You know,
we all were afraid of tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine
by Russia, but there are twenty pr nuclear strikes blowing

(50:30):
up in the country, blowing the country apart. Every day,
and it's so horrible to see how many leaders of
public opinion, how brown noses they are and how deep
they lick. And very often it's the same people who
are praising both buddhanav Maluk and Zaluzni without even understanding

(50:50):
that the whole model of special forces, special Ministry, special
services is designed to the pitting military intel against the
national security service. And yeah, majority of Ukrainians I cannot
blame for lack of information. I'm trying to be that

(51:11):
alternative information so they would at least see the situation
from different angles. But the problem of the TV marathon
that we have in Ukraine is that it creates a
certain degree of village propaganda where there is one channel
right that's very poorly broadcasted, that shows things that people

(51:35):
do not like, that people know are false. Nobody believes that,
but everybody is watching it and there is nothing else
to watch. That same legendarium is there twenty four to seven,
that Spiderweb operation, the operations in Cramea, the attacks on
the bridge. Real picture is different, and some group is

(51:55):
propping themselves up with this propaganda, others are using it
for their business, and the third are just afraid to
believe that it is not so. They prefer to believe
that just a little more and Russia will collapse and
they will somehow magically prevail. But look, being ill informed
should not mean to be bootleker. Right, you should still

(52:17):
be able to ask questions, alex say, Look, you are
well informed, right, you are the person with access with resources.
But you're not saying too much. You're holding some information.
Let's discuss it this way. We have two major problems
with the country. I think it's not fools and roads,

(52:39):
it's the drafting Commission and energy. Well, Alexander, if you
connect the drafting Commission to the energy plant, they might
actually generate more of what we're missing. So about the
Drafting Commission, there was already a list published that there
are four people kill, that the prosecution was done in secrecy,

(53:09):
and there is a serious conflict building between the Drafting
Commission and people of Ukraine. In Belgard, the Drafting Commission
was were beaten on the street and their body cams
were burnt. So we were already in the face of
physical resistance. We discussed that back in twenty five in

(53:32):
our streams. And we also have issues with for example,
energy slowootage is sitting without energy, lines of people for
basic services. And in Neeper Alena the cooking oil facility
was destroyed. And as it presented in Ukraine, well hey,

(53:53):
the civilian object rush is shooting up our civil objects.
Well it's understandable. Can say that Russia, we're hitting Russian
oil because that's how they make money. They're hitting our oil,
cooking oil production facilities because that's how we are making money,
and r grain. Some sources are now trying to spin

(54:14):
it that this production had some shares, some ownership by
United States, some American enterprise and Neiprian, as if it
is some proxy war that Russia is waging against States. Again,
so we have two trends. We have this internal civil
war brooding and we have the big war, hot war

(54:34):
that we're fighting in the front. So this change of
personnel and the presidential surroundings. We thought that Dermak will
be a vice president and now perhaps Budanav will be there.
How will these trends differ under this new cabinet? They
won't really drafting commission will be speeding up there or

(54:56):
trying to get their activities more effective, because if you're
losing township after another, it's difficult to have any success
in negotiations. And the first trend is about the electricity.
So electricity, it's difficult to completely shut down. As long
as the nuclear power station is working, the power is flowing.

(55:18):
And the real heroes of this war, I think are
Ukrainian energy specialists. They're managing to somehow divert the energy
flow and it usually, if you notice, it goes into
a ten day cycle. Russia strikes some energy targets and
then roughly about forty eight hours after the attack, the
township start to get lights back, and yeah, there'll be

(55:42):
more disconnects, but usually the energy comes back within a
few days. And we're already in the middle of a
very scary winter that was promised for us to be
super horrible that maybe we'll have to evacuate Kiev and
other cities. Yes, it is rough as energy gets turned
off for a while. Maybe some pipes will burst because

(56:04):
of the frozen water heaters, but ballpark, yeah, we will
survive that, and I think not much will change with
the same energy systems will continue willinarly going more or less,
and under mudanav they will still continue drafting because we
still need people on the front. It will be likely

(56:26):
some changes in the military. Maybe Silsky will get removed.
It's interesting who will place, who will take his place.
But these measures, if you see them, will likely precede
the intensification of mobilization efforts. And we already saw some
statements from the cabinet saying that we are trying to
preserve our troops, we're trying to be more technological in

(56:50):
our war fighting. And we heard these stories before, but
speaking of about preserving soldiers and emphasizing battle redness and training.
Iven Syrski came out today with some support to that direction.
What prevented him from doing it five years until now.

(57:11):
But my point is that if they will replace these people,
they likely will spin the story saying that, look, we
now have more caring soldier officers in the army who
care about soldiers. We have overwhelmed and prevailed over the
Soviet traditions, and that's why we need to draft more people.
Because it's under a new structure, and that's why I'm

(57:33):
thinking that the changes in the top brass are very
likely the first why they didn't change it immediately because
they needed to stabilize the vertical of power first, and
now that is getting more stabilized, we will be looking
at replacements at the general's and top generality and that's

(57:57):
when they will push for more mobilism. You shouldn't be
afraid the Ukrainians. We are paying more on the contracts
and the country is still in danger and we need
you to help us defended. How deeply they go and
mobilization don't know yet, hard to predict, but I give
you ninety nine percent that they will be intensifying mobilization

(58:20):
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