War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1418: Can the Course of the War be Changed. Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, dear subscribers of my channel, of Alexei's channel, we
are streaming live again. Hello Alexei, good evening, Thank everybody
for subscribing. Do not forget please to click the like
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(00:23):
So as always we are back with you every week,
and we have a ton of questions coming from you.
We'll try to dig through them at the final part
of our stream. You can also leave questions for Alexei
in the closed telegram channel, and you can leave obviously
questions underneath this stream at the bottom if there is

(00:45):
anything that you would like to be asked to well
afforded to him. Sore codes again some housekeeping care code.
Next Alexei is the link to his School of Thought,
School of Communication New Modules, New seminar communication is available
there and the QRE code next to Alexander is cure

(01:06):
code to support his channel. And as usual, the question
for the stream today, what dish do you think will
be presented at the feast of the strong countries of
this world, whether it'll be Ukraine, Russia or China. So

(01:30):
do you think, alex or I'd rather let me ask
you this. Do you think Ukraine as a dish? Which
table is that? Oh? I think it's the big buffet.
Whoever wants to grab a piece, they just come and
grab a piece of it. That's my opinion. All right,

(01:53):
those who watch us live, you have a chance to
vote in this live voting thing. Note from privateer station.
We're translating the stream a few days later, so usually
this voting has already gone, but you can still make
your own mind, all right. Again, in Ukraine they're warning
about massive attacks from Russia. A week ago they warned

(02:18):
again of a similar attack and they were hit with
Dyshnik that Malti headed ballistic missile from Russia, and reaction
of the international community was somewhat lack luster, although they
are trying to gather the Security Council of the United
Nations probably would not lead anywhere in Ukraine. There are

(02:40):
different voices. Some are saying this is for hitting Russian
oil tankers, and Zelenski in Beryl is saying that he's
expecting Trump to do something. Trump, meanwhile, is busy all
over the world, from Cuba, Greenland, Venezuela to his hand
in Iran. They are actually you can see some protesters

(03:02):
appealing to him with a lot of slogans saying Trump help,
And seems like he really doesn't care about Ukraine too
much at this moment. He is too busy with Iran
and other distractions. What do you think may happen in
this period with Ukraine? How valuable do you think Ukraine

(03:22):
is to the United States at the moment? And Trump,
who was somewhat violating international world order, did he lose
the interest to Ukraine? Well, of course not no, Alexander,
he has not lost this interest. Simple indicator is that

(03:42):
he allowed or pushed forward the voting for project by
g linsy Gram to slap five hundred percent sanctions on
anybody who is purchasing Russian oil, so that voting should
happen in the near future. And this is a significant
step forward. And he didn't mention by the way that

(04:03):
Putin is getting on his nerves. He started of Puttin
bs So this is a serious estimation. I think everything
is on its course in relation to Ukraine. So nobody
canceled or changed anything much. The other thing is that
the United States is a big country, and of course
they have to react to a lot of different things,

(04:25):
including Iran, and as I mentioned in our last stream,
the United States started a strategy campaign against China to
a minor degree against Russia, but mostly against China, and
Iran is a significant link chain in Chinese network. So
if Iran falls, Iran regime falls, then the axis how

(04:49):
did they call them, the excess of evil Moscow, Tehran,
Beijing and Pyongyang that breaks apart in the most sense
and rather important link. And this will be a big change,
not in the favor of the global South, so to speak.
So if Iatolas are removed, who can take power? Probably

(05:15):
Shah that is or his descendants, the family that are
still in London. How many years ago were they pushed
out of the country into exile About forty seven years ago,
So they've been patiently waiting and they will get, of
course a huge advantage as a the United States that is,

(05:38):
in splitting this axis, and it will not be in
favor of those who are intriguing against Israel, of course,
and it will seriously weaken China and its politics. So
United States, they're well aware of what they're doing. Cuba
and Greenland, there are of course good topics too, but
United States understands the vector that they need to pursue.

(06:04):
And this is the claim to Iran, is to the
other hemisphere that the United States supposedly are not too
involved with right now. But as we see they somewhat are.
These are links of the same chain, so they are related,
all right, Alexey if I it's of interest to me
personal interest, how do you what do you think about

(06:26):
the story of protests? Understandable that the official power gathered
some anti midne in Iran and they were burning in
the same fashion the portraits of shop portraits of Trump
to show that picture in contradiction to the protests against regime.

(06:48):
Internet is not really running there, so that it takes
a big delay for these images to come in. They
did suppress a lot of most of the Internet capability
in Iran and even masks satellite communications didn't quite work. So,
by the way, another interesting question, whose technology was that Chinese?

(07:09):
Because Iran I don't think has this technology Russian or Chinese?
And how do you think it will affect Bullpark? Do
you think it'll change the regime? Yes, Alexandra, I think
the regime was shook. They already had several high level
generals killed during the protests. Of course, two thousand plus

(07:31):
people were killed during the protests. They're probably among the protesters.
And the other thing is that, of course Iran has
been going through these protests as a cycle, mass protests
that last for months and did not conclude in anything fruitful.
On the other hand, it's almost like clockwork, right, they
don't happen every two three years by themselves. I think.

(07:52):
I think the West is playing a longer game here,
and this is one of the key stories with Iran.
It's a strategic story. So if it doesn't fall, doesn't
change the regime this time, it likely will shake again
in a couple of years. So this regime of Iolas
was there for forty years. Even if it exists for
another ten before it falls, that's still a success. That

(08:16):
it falls at the end plus minus a couple of
years doesn't matter. It'll weaken China as it goes anyway,
Another record breaking military budget planned by Trump for well,
of course, for the peace in the whole world. Right,
quite as expected. So there are some panicking statements by

(08:37):
some weak souls that the protests are diminishing, that they
were trampled because Trump fails to intervene because he's too
busy with other things. But we'll see. I think there
is a huge probability that there will be some military
action on Iran, whether visible or covert. Again, one story

(09:02):
of States will hit military installations or nuclear program, whatever
remains of it. We'll see that in a couple of weeks.
I think next Monday we'll be able to discuss what
has happened if the United States are indeed aimed at
changing power in Iran. At the moment, you will observe

(09:25):
the strikes against the political structure, and you will see
additional aid coming to support the rebels. The crowds of
people who are surging to the streets in protests of
Iatola's regime. You might see some very well spoken persons

(09:48):
among the crowds, with good training, who will help to
organize them and lead them in the necessary directions. We'll
see that. What do you think, Alexei about China? Why
are they so weak in responding to Trump's attacks and
Venezuela that was bitten off and Greenland? China is very

(10:12):
diplomatically reserved. Is it because they are they have some
pre agreements or because they have nothing to answer, no
way to answer that. To counter that, well, China is
also dependent on trade with the United States. They are
dependent on the United States significantly. If United States cancels

(10:35):
trade with China, China will have serious issues with survival.
If the United States decides not to purchase Chinese goods,
it will be somewhat rough, but they'll figure it out.
But for China, that'll be the end of it if
the United States stops trade with them. That's why China

(10:55):
is totally dependent upon the United States, and Americas were
creating this situation on purpose, despite all these tariffs and
all that squabble. China needs United States much more than
United States need China. This is a very asymmetric situation
and it was built as such by United States, and

(11:18):
they're using it with pleasure and military opposition to the
United States. China is definitely not ready for that and
not going for this. In my view, it's interesting that
another deal worked for Trump with Taiwan. Oh yeah, eleven
billion worth of weapons were deployed to Taiwan. China started

(11:42):
military exercises immediately. Yeah, they both keep threatening each other
and brandishing arms, but they do understand that attacking Taiwan
means direct hot war with United States. I did not
see them doing it. Do you think that United States

(12:02):
geopolitically then ties Russia and China together by these actions? Yes,
United States somewhat are pushing Russia indeed into the arms
of China, because if there will be no Venezuela oil available,
it probably will be Russian oil that will replace it.
But how will that cooperation work exactly, That's still a

(12:24):
big question. Now do you think Americans have no more
chances to create huge problems for Russia? What do you mean, Well,
like the law that the bill proposed by A. Graham
for five time sanctions for everybody who purchases Russian oil products.

(12:47):
And if China is caught right handed purchasing at different
prices from Russia, then financial tools may be implemented against China,
which will be quite a catastrophe for China, even if
they figure out some ways to evade it. So, as
I did talk before about the Global South and Global

(13:11):
South trying to put the pedal to the floor to
try to expedite their organization and development of it, United
States still has enough power to resist. Maybe ten years
from now station will change. Right now, the global South
is still weak. I think the United States was somewhat
at a loss. Initially we're not sure where to go,
how to pursue. But once they figure out what their

(13:34):
objectives are, they can create very significant ripples in this water.
They can affect the whole course of this ship if
they want to and look. In order to avoid financial
sanctions by the United States, countries would need to create significant, working,
effective financial system and there were many attempts. There were

(13:56):
many attemps at digital currency. Taiwan did something, but so
far economically successful, it was not. It is just somewhat
at the early, at the nascent stages, especially now trying
to switch to some new system. When if United States
will start affecting financial calculations and relations between China, Russia

(14:18):
and their partners. This whole world, however you spin, it
is still sitting on dollar ocean. Trade is controlled by Americans,
and that means seventy percent of world trade. Silk growth
built China was building. Is not so simple. And how
do you rebel against the United States, How do you
move against them? It's very complex. So, yes, they can

(14:41):
affect the situation, the economic situation with Russia and China more,
and it appears that Venezuela is just the first step.
And I guess at some point Donald decide to answer
to answer the threats that he heard from Russia, China
and other folks. So it's interesting, like I say that

(15:07):
Trump's strategy is not getting too much analytics on a
global level. What is he going towards. There's a lot
of criticism. Everything is presented as chaotic and not related. Mexico, Cuba, Greenland,

(15:28):
Canada is concerned, Africans are concerned, and some African countries
are declaring that they will switch to Yuan as a
backup currency. But the paradox is that everybody is still
running towards gold and silver. Before attacks on Iran, the

(15:51):
dollar forty fives. Now the other trend is present. Trump
says that he will bring his own appointee for Federal
Reserve Commission from black Rock fellow, who is in charge
of global investments there. He is meeting with businesses over Venezuela,

(16:14):
but he cannot really give them any good deal because
people with calculations are telling that it'll take them some time,
at least a couple of years to get some results
out of it. So Trump's section is actually fast right.
They picked Maduro in days, but whatever else will be

(16:35):
done requires a couple of years of stabilization and continuous
work to bring any fruit. So we keep hearing that
Trump is about new imperialism, new empire. What do you
think he wants to see at the end? Is there
a coherent picture in his mind? Well, I think I
understand what he intends to achieve. Of course, a very

(16:59):
high tech United States with a lot of support by AI,
where they are rather successful in developing that technology. There was,
of course a space program as part of America being
strong in the future, and even despite all the controversy
around NASA's budget, they kept a big chunk of it,

(17:20):
so they're still developing their space programs. The United States
also is putting a target on proxy regimes managed by
Russia and China in different countries and affecting those regimes.
And you can understand their key goals is to control
c trade, ocean trade, control the global security to some degree,

(17:44):
and to affect new rules of the gameplay, whether it
will be a digital dollar or some other things that
will be implemented. I'm not too big of an expert
in the economic side of it. But there is a
system of international payments. For now, it is based on dollar,
and some fashion it will remain, whether it will be

(18:06):
a dollar or digital dollar, some gold backup digital currency.
There is still going to be some backup global payment system.
And I can guarantee that after a couple different turns
and things moving globally, you can find that America is

(18:27):
still at control of that global system. So they have
too many livers of control in their hands, trade, physical trade,
trade routes, monetary levers, and they will use it. They
will exercise this influence. And of course they are declaring

(18:50):
that yes, you can somewhat trade with the Western hemisphere
with our blessing, but America is not relinquishing its control
on the global financial systems. All right, I'll say one
more thing about Trump and then we'll move towards Europe.
But this one is important. Just recently, maybe ten minutes ago,
Trump posted another post on History Social where he comments

(19:16):
on the decision of Supreme Court on the tariffs orbete
him the actual numbers that we would have to pay
back for any reason. The Supreme Court or to rule
against the United States of America on tariffs would be
many hundreds of billions of dollars, and that does not
even include the amount of payback that countries and companies

(19:37):
would require for the investments they are making on building plans, factories,
and equipment for the purpose of being able to avoid
the payment of tariffs. When these investments are added, we're
talking about trillions of dollars. It would be a complete
mess and almost impossible for our country to pay. Anybody
who says that it can be quickly and easily done
would be making a false, inaccurate, or totally misunderstood answer

(19:59):
to this very large, complex question. It might not be possible,
but if it were, it would be dollars that would
be so large that it would take many years to
figure out what number we are talking about and even who, when,
and where to pay. Remember when America shines brightly, the
world shines brightly. In other words, if Supreme Court rules
against the United States of America on this national security bonanza,

(20:20):
we are screwed. So a like say, Trump, with all
this opposition inside the United States, is he teetering on
the brink or is he just making it look like well,
it is hard to give an answer to that. Whether
it is a real brink or not, because America is
already earning billions of dollars on these serfs. To some degree,

(20:44):
he is aimed at breaking the system, and that globalists
driven gray system that is not easily affected even by
elected politicians. Nobody knows how it will end. Trump may
prevail or or maybe the swamp prevails. We can understand

(21:04):
both sides and their interests, but it's very difficult to
give prognostications here. We will have several important milestones. The
decision of the Supreme Court on the teriffs. Second, how
will Supreme Court decide? How will they rule if the
States vote against the decisions of Supreme Court specifically for

(21:25):
the illegal immigrants matters. Some states are protesting it. And
essentially Trump is trying to rebuild the machine that creates
global income for globalists and there are a lot of
financial interests. So whether it will fall into the abyss
and or whether it will prevail over Trump, we don't

(21:45):
know yet. We will see, okay, I say, in Europe,
nobody talks about Russian Daritionik strike. Some people are saying
that this is a signal to NATO to support to
stop supporting Ukraine. What do you think about this strike.
There are some notes from Russia official statements that they
were trying to hit the Air Force repair facility where

(22:10):
F sixteens are getting refitted. Do you think it was
worth it? Do you think they just wasted it? Okay? So, first,
the effect the effectivity of that specific strike is measured
as low. There are statements that Adirschnik is not really

(22:35):
an effective weapon and nobody will fret much because of
just one single strike by that missile unless there are
some influencers and some other online people or other leaders
of opinion who are trying to drum things up. So
the effectivity of this strike was low. Whether indeed they've

(22:56):
missed accidentally or on purpose, don't know. Again, these warheads
were not equipped with nuclear parts. They were just kinetic warheads.
Of course, if it strikes your facility at thirteen thousand

(23:17):
kilometers an hour, it can destroy. But is it enough
to scare the whole NATO into stopping supplies of armaments
to Ukraine even if it would be equipped with nuclear warheads.
I don't think this will dissuade NATO from supporting Ukraine.

(23:39):
And again, could you use different warheads on Irishnik? Good question?
Maybe it's technical limitations. Maybe it can only carry nuclear warheads.
Because it's the second strike of Ayshnik, and in both
strikes it was used as kinetic weapon. Is it scary
for NATO? I don't see it. It is a strategic

(24:00):
armament that was used twice one on this repair facility.
Both strikes pause questions about the effectivity of this weapon.
One cannot say that this is minimal. One can neither
say that this is overwhelming. As a matter of fact,
it stopped scaring people with its flow of mystery. People

(24:25):
are not too afraid of it. You see two uses,
and the legend about scary Addishnik is getting washed away.
It causes certain concerns with specialists and with usual citizens,
so it doesn't look like it's too scary of a weapon.
That's why I don't see it producing any result in

(24:47):
effect on NATO at large. It might produce an effect
on the factory itself if it hits right. There were
concerns about Russians using Addishnik on the presidential quarters in Kiev,
but I think that States affected that decision by putting
to shift the target to a different place, because otherwise

(25:09):
it could disrupt the negotiations process. So do you think
we'll see additioning more often Alexi, Well, nobody knows how
many of them they have. If we get another one
with thirty six warheads, put In doesn't really have too
many targets, right, If there are sixteen splitting warheads, you

(25:35):
have to pick the right target for that. It's more
effective to use kinjal That is actually more precise as well.
There are not too many targets, too many clusters of
targets where you can where you can have sixteen targets
around it for all the warheads. So it implies some

(25:57):
constraints on where do you use it. Most likely they're
not going to use it against the city because it
will be any of the cities in Ukraine. It will
likely because a lot of pushback in the United States
and Russia is still in the peace process. That's why
while they're still negotiating, they likely will not escalate to
use it on the living quarters, living on the non

(26:18):
living facilities, or attacking non living facilities. Sure they attacked factories,
they destroyed some, but they have not fully demolished them.
So yeah, they can use it as again testing purposes
in actual wartime, maybe propaganda, but the real effectiveness is

(26:39):
not too scary, all right, So if Ukraine is not
afraid of Iyoshnik. There were rumors about some other missile
that is being tested in different conditions, and publications are
talking about some of them are talking about super precise
or super deadly. One can post a question here, though,

(27:02):
have we stepped over a certain next escalation step or
we're still at the moment where we just lift our foot. Well,
there's no escalation as I see it, Alexander. In order
to escalate you need to disrupt the peace communication. For now,
everything works, and that's why I don't see escalation happening. Now.

(27:26):
If peace process will fall apart, then everybody will likely
play in the style of okay, now we'll show you
how it actually works, and they might attack civilian targets.
So you think that peace process is not off, No,
of course not. But Vitep his writing posts, Witkov is
traveling Trump and putting our commenting, Zelenski's commenting on it.

(27:51):
So there is a lot of things happening. Well, the
war's also happening regardless of all that activity. Alexi Kaliba
posted today Labato man as they call him for a
shovel man, and when he has said that Ukrainians will
fight with shovels if they're out of arms. He's giving
interviews as the possible candidate for the Foreign Intelligence Service,

(28:13):
saying that Ukrainians generally are not against giving up some
territory and they're looking into somehow finishing this war. However,
it seems like the whole twenty twenty sixth the war
will continue, right Alexander. He also names the reason for that,
because he's stating that Russia thinks they can achieve their
goals militarily, and Ukraine thinks they can prevent Russia from

(28:33):
achieving these goals. And that's the basis for his statements,
which are quite reasonable statements. But I don't think we
are at the threshold of escalation. This actually sounds rather
cynically Alexey, given that people have frozen apartments in Kiev,
there is no electricity. There are massive disconnect with electricity

(29:01):
throughout the country. Right the yep Roque, A bunch of
other cities lost power. But one can ask a question
whether Russia is the first country that creates significant issues
to civilian population by destroying the infrastructure. No. Nata was
doing that in Yugoslavia, for example. Then do you think

(29:25):
using climate conditions to create inhumane lifestyle life conditions for civilians?
This is a big question for international law whether using
climate to affect civilians is somewhat punishable Why it is done.
Of course, it's reasonably understood that this is pushing Ukraine

(29:48):
to a peace process, right, and Ukraine doesn't want to
go and just surrender. Yes, Russia absolutely consciously using severe
cold winter, using difficult climate conditions is pushing Kiev and
Zelensky government to concede and trying to create that situation

(30:12):
in Ukraine to escalate the resistance or upset by civilian
population with their president because of the life they have
without electricity. So do you think it'll be effective depends.
You need to first of all, probably measure public opinion
before the infrastructure was destroyed, and then after that infrastructure

(30:35):
was affected by military strikes, and then you can pull
them about whether they want to continue this war and
what terms would be to continue this war or stop
this war. We don't know the answer to these questions.
Ukrainian official media will of course show the unity after
Zelensky and readiness to fight with shovels and till three
four hundred and forty five till the last part of

(30:56):
very eastern Russia is liberated from Russia can do that.
The West can do some social polling, but they usually
do not publish it officially because that's considered to be
interventioned into the inner in affairs of Ukraine. Maybe Trump
can mention some results of it in some of his
speeches or addresses. I know that these pallings do happen,

(31:19):
but nobody is using them as official data. And I
would caution from making judgment by talking to select few
that you know in Ukraine, because that would technically or
be doing a polling in a bubble. Logically, sure, there'll
be some percent of people shifting towards finishing this war

(31:40):
as a result of living in these inhumane conditions, but
I think the percent of those who don't want this
sword to continue is already pretty big. The problem Ukraine
has is that small group of people holding power, propped
up by how they called by Sergey the zuk National Patriots.
They're basically holding a country hostage, holding everybody who wants

(32:05):
to stop the war hostage to their effort to prevent
Russia from succeeding. So, okay, you think they do hold
him hostage, right. I understand that that probably is no
power ready to topple Zelenski right now in Ukraine. But
there is an interesting process that is actually happening amongst

(32:29):
his inner circles and those who are around him. Zelensky
is continuously shifting everybody for everybody, He's changing the heads
of regional administrations. He has some issues with voting about
maluk in Congress, but he is replacing ministers. He announced
today in the evening message. We already were streaming live

(32:52):
when he was announcing new decrees that more people are
getting shifted. And many people think that what is wrong
in his vertical of power that would make him to
make so many concerned moves. And we're not only talking

(33:13):
about the power agencies where everybody talks that. Okay, there
is some premax legacy. He's actually talking about districts, about
different parts of Ukraine. Is he afraid of something? I
think there are two obvious reasons. First of all, to
maintain the manageability and control of Ukraine, because if he

(33:33):
loses control, the matter of his political power and survival
comes to play. So he tries to keep that all
glued together coherently. And second is probably elections, because the
task of governors, and it's not a secret, it's to
give a certain percent the elections. That's the key thing
demanded from them basically in his government. So this is

(33:57):
one of the signs of him getting ready to elections.
I think in some reasonable timeframe, probably within a year, okay,
within a year. We are also seeing some ratings that
indicate that z Ilution is not a player. They even drew, right,
they drew one point six percent of support to myself,

(34:18):
so I was laughing, this is laughable when somebody who
is sanctioned and called a Russian spy by Zevanski government
has a one point six percent. This is rather humorous situation.
That gives me laughing, actually, even more than the acting
mayor of the capital who is talking a lot of

(34:40):
funny things about Ukraine. So what's wrong with the Ukraine?
And Selexey? They are somewhat freedom laughing, right, they do
have all the right values. And I did talk about
that episode before they would show us, for example, an

(35:01):
amputee in a hospital who lost a leg and two
arms and he's giving an interview to one of the
TV stations, and that serviceman is saying that, answering the
question why did we fight so well in twenty two
because we were afraid to die in shackles. We need
to die well for freedom. And why Ukraine is not

(35:24):
so effective now? His answers, because we're not getting hit
too much. Do you really think that well now, Alexander,
I think we had two wars. The first war lasted
for about fifty days. It was a just war. The
whole world supported us well, stood up like one and
pushed back. It was a fight for freedom of a

(35:46):
country that did not provoke that attack, if not in
actions of its political leadership, but the general population has
not provoked that, and they went out to defend their homeland. Now,
when the time came for Stambula agreements, there slowly was
a switch to another war, from freedom against tyranny to

(36:08):
the warriors of light against the genetic garbage, and that
one did not quite fly. And the more this language
is going to be played, the less successful will be.
Because when you fight for freedom against oppression, that elevates
your self esteem, that elevates you as a person. But

(36:30):
when you're called the warrior of light. At the same
time you're being shoved into the bus while being drafted,
You're beaten, your rights are being taken away. There is
a big incongruency there. So I think there was a
huge mistake made by Ukrainian political leadership. That's one second.
It was probably unavoidable because strategic that on monoculturalism and

(36:57):
separation as much as they can from anything Russian would
not allow them to present to create a different structure. So, Alexi,
do you think we can change the course of this war?
What do you mean? We can, of course say that yes,
we are fighting for freedom against tyranny, but for that
we need to implement or return our freedoms back, because

(37:21):
for now we have, for example, a huge amount of
persecution against the pastors of Moscow Patriarchy Orthodox Church in Ukraine,
to such a degree that on a Polina Luna and
other congressman from states are asking questions, what are you doing?
This definition is making clumsy excuses. There were a lot

(37:45):
of criminal activities happening with the Moscow representatives of the
Moscow Church, to which Bundeenka redwards rather creatively saying that
Luke Statin also was persecuting thousands of priests. Is that
because they were criminals or other reasons. So if suddenly
Ukrainian leadership would have changed their course and would have

(38:06):
started to reinstate democracy against tyranny program, I think we
would have more volunteers coming back to the front. We
would even have some Ukrainians coming back to the country,
and would have more sympathy of the global community. Because
right now, if you close two folders and hide the names,
you probably will have issues. Just two sets of folders

(38:28):
of facts of oppression, it would probably be hard pressed
to figure out which countries which no. Like I say,
I will retort here say that I think you can
understand where Russia is and where Ukraine is my Dan
City center. Stop you dun't FuG that's the commentary behind

(38:51):
the screen, and continue saying you will be the next one.
Take a picture of him, make him know. So this
was they were accused of being traders, those who did
not stop for the cortege. There was a procession to
bury a dead military serviceman. Somebody didn't stop. So yeah,

(39:16):
the only way to stop all that, Alexander, I think
is to change our political course. But everything is so
discredited already that you would have to prove that you
are changing this course. And Sardansky, I don't think is
a figure who can do it. He came on these promises,
but he utterly failed. And if he looks for somebody

(39:37):
to replace figures in the ministries, I don't think he
will be able to change the course. This train is
heading to the Abyss. There are theoretical hypothetical options, but
realistically they're not present, and organizationally they're not present, not
until elections. So Tedansky is leading Ukraine into the wall

(40:00):
and there is a big abyss behind that. Well, how
long will be the fall? We'll see. It's difficult estimated
at the moment, but one can say that continuation of
the political project of anti Russia and monocultural nationalism is
destroying Ukraine and will likely bring us not only to

(40:21):
political defeat but also to historical defeat in a very
short timeframe, probably within a decade. All right, Another one,
kil Budanov. He doesn't write too much on his telegram channel,
maybe use of maybe his second in command is writing
that today is the day of Ukrainian political prisoner. We

(40:45):
remember all those who suffered for the right for our
right to speak freely and think freely. From imprisonment of
Tarasufchenka by Russian Empire to the Soviet times camps and
Ukrainian intelligencia which was sent there to stifle the freedom

(41:09):
of thought in the country. The names of regimes change,
the methods remain the same. Prison as the instrument of
Ukrainian of Moscow politics against Ukrainians, and Ukrainians are being
prosecuted for their identity together with prisoners of war. Today
we're thinking not only about those who are behind bars.

(41:33):
We're thinking about their families, about their wives and relatives
who are waiting for them. We remember every political prisoner.
We're fighting for them and will do everything to bring
them back home to the country. Alexei, So you and
I are sanctioned by Ukrainian government. A lot of people

(41:57):
in Ukraine are imprisoned for communicating with people from those
territories where the Ukrainians are being prosecuted. We are also Ukrainians, right,
or our people who are sanctioned and who are imprisoned

(42:17):
in Ukraine, are they also political prisoners? Oh no, no, Alexander,
they are the enemies of the state. Right, There is
a proper Ukrainian prisoner of political prisoner, and then there
is an improper one. You and I are improper. We
do not fit the frame. I don't want to comment

(42:39):
the texts which are written on such a degree of subconsciousness,
because I don't think anybody was conscious when they were
writing it. But they are targeting a very narrow group
of populace who will not think while reading it. But
you and I know that in the Ukraine there are
from thirty two to thirty five thousand political prisoners who

(43:01):
are imprisoned for expressing certain political views. And I let
me emphasize that question that you asked, do we think
that this day is also celebrating these people or then
should we perhaps name them differently? And we should name

(43:23):
the Day of political prisoners foreign political prisoners, maybe external
political prisoners, and name internal political prisoners as something else
because they are not proper. You see, this rhetoric is
very offensive to your own people, because the authors of
this rhetoric imply that Ukrainians are completely brainless. And I

(43:47):
hope this is not so. Some people still have some,
especially yeah right bringing up that Asfchenk's political prisoner who
was bought out of an indentured servitude by essentially the
Russian Empress. Karl Brulova, a well known painter of the time,
drew a portrait of a poet Vasily Zukovski, and Empress
purchased it at the auction, and then these money were

(44:09):
transferred and paid to the owner of Darashuchenka, bible and gilgard,
and he set him free. He had Tarasuchenka wrote a
rather upsetting poem about the Empress, which was a significant
violation at that time, and he was also forgiven for

(44:32):
his political activity that was disrupting collective system of security
in Russia at that time. So Budanov will of course
avoid writing about that. This is too complex for his writings. Well,

(44:52):
another post of a funny regime that is trying to
fight with Bulgakov and other literary figures, and for two
years meantime people are living without electricity, without heat, with
non working sewage. Do you think Alexi Budanav will solve

(45:16):
the problem of mobilization and draft and people leaving the
disposition of their military detachments. No, you need to change
the principles. You need to change the attitude to people.
You need to change how people are drafted, how people
are trained. He's there to enforce, he's not there to change.
There'll be a lot of campaigns. That'll be a lot

(45:38):
of good stories in the media. Budanaf is rather well
known for organizing campaign I would ask our viewers to
look into what Artie Green is publishing and from what
he's writing. I'm seeing different nuanced things about heroic pasts
of budanav and in quotes it matches what I have

(46:00):
about but donof So, yeah, pay attention to artists posts
and to the system that you will create. You know
my attitude to that. You know that military intel became
special machine for Zelenski's to get profits. If not half criminal,

(46:23):
then very strongly criminal, like forty eight percent criminal. So
in reality, real military intel drowned in all that criminality,
except for some of the remaining good people there who
achieved a couple of things during this war. But if
you think with the new figure on top of it,

(46:44):
the ministry will change, I think this is foalscope. So
you think there is nobody to do it right, Let's say,
who can be in that system, Alexander, if they're moving
the same five beds and the same brothel and Kulemba
after making a lot of statements, some of which were

(47:05):
much more accusatory than even what we are talking about here,
and then Zelenski is trying to bring him back. That
means that his roster is very short. He doesn't have
many people to rely on. And it's not a secret.
Ukraine is a small village. Many people whom we know
directly or who is a friend of our good friend.

(47:28):
Many of them were offered a lot of positions vice
prime minister, of different branches of power. People are refusing.
They don't want to participate in this regime. So, however
much you paint the decoration with great achievements and future
super campaigns, how much pictures of important meetings and take

(47:49):
corruption meetings and changing the draft process meetings, you need
to really change system. In order to change it, you
cannot get by with just posts and media. Current system
is very simple. In the peacetime, they're making money. In
the war times, they're making money on the blood of

(48:10):
their citizens and turned the blood into golden toilets. That's it.
End of the first hour.

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