War in Ukraine, Analytics. Day 1425: Is An Escalation of War a Threat for Ukraine? Arestovych, Shelest.

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Greetings, dear friends and subscribers of my channel of Alexei
ri Stovic's channel. This is live stream we're doing this week. Alexey,
Merry Orthodox Christmas to you too. Likewise likewise Alexander. All right,
Today Alexi is usually a special day when everybody feel

(00:28):
the cleansing, getting rid of the sins, and it would
be really wishful, I guess if we wanted to see
some light at the end of this tunnel and see
some better future. However, for now I have a feeling
that we're mostly looking into some sort of abyss with
a pretty dark depth ahead of us. Anyway, we'll try

(00:50):
to address our concerns and news of the week. Those
who are watching us live feel free to leave your
comments and questions at the live chat. You can also
ask questions on Alexander's channel follow the barcode. Let's start
with the usual, the question the polling for the stream. Oh,

(01:12):
I forgot to mention that the barcodes lead to Alexi
School or to my channel, but yes, regardless, Let's go
start with a question, are you going to leave Ukraine
because of the problem with heat and electricity? Because right
now in Ukraine, the sentiment is Yeah, people are leaving.

(01:34):
It's horrible to live like this. So imagine yourself or
if you are there, just answer what do you think?
Option one, Yes, I cannot stand any longer. Option two,
I don't have anywhere else to go. Option three, I'm
not going as a matter of principle, I can, I could,
but I'm not going to And option number four already left.

(01:56):
So I want to start with this topic because we
will go to politics, to bigger numbers, to Greenland, Ukraine,
Europe Trump Zelenski who described another special operation. But I
think the most important special operation for Ukrainian citizen is
to make a decision whether one wants to stay in

(02:18):
the country or leave it. And these are the terms
that we're greeting twenty twenty six with. It doesn't appear
that anything will get better in a month or two
months from now. What do you think? What can you
say about the harshest winter of this war? First of Alexander,
I feel sympathy, with an empathy, empathize with those people

(02:44):
who have to live in Ukraine right now, who I
have a lot of friends and relatives in Kiev and
other cities, and we're I think seeing the challenge between
our words that we can hold on versus So it's
our real capability to hold on when everything is horrible.
And I think the near future will show how strong

(03:08):
the resolve is, because I would expect there'll be more
strikes on Kiev in the near future on the energy
generating and heating plants, and they likely will be two
or three complete blackout days after such a strike. With
this temperature, without electricity, without hot water. Now, what people

(03:29):
are holding on is that even if when situation is dire,
they usually get electricity for an hour or a couple
hours during the day so they can recharge the phones,
heat up the rooms a little bit. But what if
you're facing two to five days of complete blackout, then
another strike and you're five days down again. The mediocenter

(03:54):
is still predicting rather hard weather, and we might have
to hold for two or three more weeks in this climate.
And right, let's see what other townships. Odessa and Hahrkov
are also under attack, are also being regularly harassed by

(04:15):
Putin's troops and missiles. So okay, let's imagine that people
do survive in these freezing apartments. They find some ways
to survive and stay there. Then Russian campaign to freeze
Ukrainians and push them out or make them do something

(04:36):
about it. Then it loses power. It becomes the object
of laughter, some optimism and jokes and memes in regards
to Putin being so horrible and his generals being horrible
and miscalculations in their inhumane approach, and jokes that would

(04:58):
likely be born from Ukraine that we can stand and
survive even much worse things now. Another option is if
in one, two, three, or four major cities Ukraine fails
to provide enough electricity and keep people there, because mostly

(05:19):
these handful of cities will probably mean about twenty percent
of our economy. Now, if Kiev starts to flee and
perhaps temporarily becomes this city that is unlivable, that would
be the strongest hit on the Ukrainian position, with consequences

(05:40):
that is very difficult to calculate at the moment. There'll
be multiplying and creating more ripples and more downstream effects.
I wouldn't even take on me to calculate that. It'll
likely affect the same parameters Ukrainian strength, Ukrainian optimism, Ukrainian

(06:04):
verb to fight and resist that people will be observing
that disaster and saying that probably we can't. And this
is another alternative that may happen. Russia has still at
least a couple months till whether it gets warmer, so
big question how will that unfold? Another big question looming

(06:26):
on the horizon, what is going to happen next winter?
Are we going to fix everything and create proper defense systems?
How livable will Kiev being summer and in autumn, and
Odessa and Harkov and Nimper, and whether the war will
continue in the next winter. These are serious questions because

(06:48):
if just Kiev becomes unlivable and people leave the city,
that'll be one of the biggest catastrophes of this war.
And we don't know for now. People are holding they're
holding on while they have these hour and a half
of electricity. Some houses get electricity for up to fourteen hours.

(07:12):
It's very patchy, and we understand that our energy system
operators have become real gurus during this war and they're
trying to help people to survive it. In reality, in
order to completely shut off the cities, Russia needs to

(07:32):
destroy the distributions and stations with each of the cities.
We have a lot of generation and Russians will avoid
hitting nuclear factories for obvious reasons, but they're attacking the
distribution centers rather effectively. And now our defense systems, whatever
we can, scramble to defend these stations, and Ukrainian energy

(07:53):
systems management and specialists are real heroes of this season
of this so war. All I can say is that
whether we survive that relatively resilient, that'll be a huge
plus to us, and if we fail in one of
several cities that will be a huge minus. That's as
far as one can predict. A look say so, very

(08:15):
few people at the beginning of this war were thinking
that the war will continue longer than the Great Patriotic War.
How we call it our Second World War as it
is more known in the world, because we recently surpassed
the length. And now if we look in the future,
what do we have. We have nothing. We have our

(08:38):
delegation with budanav and a couple of citizens, also American citizenship.
They're going to see different Russian representatives and negotiations. There
were some hopes for Davis, but Trump brought the scandal
with Greenland there. So now there is Abu Dhabi on

(08:58):
the horizon. But I'm I'm asking you to help us
sort it out. Whether the appeal that it's better without
electricity and heat, but as long as we're not under Russia,
we're good, or you know, in Ukraine they're also there's
some rhetoric guys, go to the cafe, go to a restaurant,

(09:18):
try to add some light to your living, to your lives.
But de facto that hand that is likely put in
his hand that's almost inching towards the power button for Ukraine.
Do you think it affects the negotiations that are happening.

(09:40):
Do you think it's his last argument shut down Ukraine
from electricity and drop it into the Stone Age? Or
does he have any other arguments that these negotiations, we
haven't heard much about them, Alexander, there is another consideration
that if the negotiations were successful, we would have been
heard about them. We would have heard about that already

(10:01):
many times. Since it is pretty quiet, meaning I don't
think there is any optimism there at the moment. And
I also don't see neither Europe nor Americans being seriously
upset about what Putin is doing with energy systems in Ukraine.
There are two topics dominating the global networks, Greenland and

(10:24):
Iran and Ukrainians. Yes, we're freezing, but they still have
an hour and a half of electricity and it's not
too critical. There are two other major events unfolding in
the world that are drawing attention away from Ukraine, so
it's difficult to estimate what effect does Putin's attacks have.

(10:47):
Do Puttin's attacks have, Zelenski is trying to exacerbate some
of the missiles that Ukraine is getting from the Allies,
trying to present it as some major achievements, but honestly speaking,
it is really difficult to milk the topic of Russian

(11:09):
Ukrainian war for another sensation after the four years of war?
Is it good or bad? Alexy? It's both good and bad. Good,
that's good, it's difficult to make it worse unless one
uses nuclear arms. And second is bad because it doesn't

(11:30):
help Ukraine to draw more attention to try and get
more support to solve this problem this war. At the
same time, those in America who are the proponents of
Ukraine finishing this war with Russia, they may see that

(11:51):
lack of huge changes and some continuous pressure from Russia
perhaps is pushing or steering Ukraine towards sitting down at
the table and negotiating this end of the war. So
cynically as it is. They're not for Ukraine's defeat, but
they want the war to end. And if you understand that,

(12:13):
Zelenski's position is one of the positions that preventing it,
So Russians probably would want to have more noise. They're
doing it for that, but and they're also trying, i think,
to create a certain public opinion that, look, Russia will
throw Ukraine into stone age if Ukraine doesn't cooperate. All

(12:33):
they're doing is to create political pressure ultimately, but it
doesn't seem to work yet. Their goal would be to
freeze the cities, to create additional pressure on politicians to
sit down, negotiate, and forfeit whatever territory is putting ones
to grab. And we'll need to see how it unfolds.
We don't have an answer to that yet. All right,

(12:57):
military component of the dark cities and electricity shutdowns, it
is obvious that it'll hit it will strike hard the civilians.
But we're also seeing that the war has changed rather
significantly since the beginning of the year. Drones all of

(13:21):
a sudden started to attack bridges in the Ukrainian depth,
destroying the ways for troops to withdraw or maneuver or
get resupplies. There were other videos of them using different
explosive device contraptions at the bridges at the railroads. Right.

(13:45):
We've seen quite a few of those videos, usually Alexander.
A significant step in the drone warfare evolves every three
months or so. We saw some of the evolutions like
that of drones with missiles, air to air missiles to
shut down our helicopters and jets if they're lucky, drones

(14:06):
with heat sensors and the probable fight of a spear
and a shield is evolving. The means to attack are evolving,
The means of defense are evolving. As a next step,
perhaps eventually there'll be some AI contributions to that warfare.

(14:27):
The ways to lift more payload the drones. The shorter
range drones usually get a bigger warhead that they can
use to destroy the window or the ball or the
roof of some fortification. They're ready to sacrifice the range

(14:48):
of the drone to carry a bigger payload. So it's evolving,
But drones are not the pivotal point of this war.
Drones are basically artillery. It's the evolution of artillery. It's
just a very particular, very accurate means to deliver the
show the same delivered the payload to the target, the

(15:11):
same conundrum they were facing in the First World War
when they had stalemate, artillery started to help sides to prevail.
And by the way, artillery is still actual. They're still
doing a lot of things, and nobody is refusing their
artillery the use of artillery because commanders at the front

(15:33):
they see the damage that drones can do versus the
damage that artillery can do, and they understand that drones
is just another tool under their belt. They're not the tool.
They're not the tool that solves everything. As you notice
in the media, nobody writes the drones took over Kuipansk.

(15:55):
They're writing that infantry took over Kuipensk. The enemy infantry
is breaking through. But yes, it's true. Now if you
don't have a drone for your infantry to support as
the eyes in the sky or as the striking capability, yeah,
they're entire straits. So Alex said, we did talk about
these drones and we try to review the front line,

(16:17):
and we'll go over the front line today. We observe
that Russia is pushing towards a Parogia. It's about seventeen
kilometers to the city and they're going beyond Stepnagotsk towards
the north. But that's enough for them to shoot up

(16:37):
the south of Zaparagia, which is the regional center, all right,
And Alexander, there are other parts nearby. They can fly
for up to forty kilometers with the fiber cable, with
fiber optics. So yeah, we talked about Zaparogia being becoming

(16:58):
a target warfront city about two months ago, right, Alexei,
And now I want to say that in Zelensky's Deck
of Cards, I want to address that. We started our
stream with the topic of the shutdowns, the blackouts of

(17:23):
electricity becoming a factor at negotiations, and this is also
being used in politics. Clichko is using it against Zelensky.
Zelenski is attacking to Kashenka. Here the mayor is horrible.
There the mayor is good. There is no mayor Nadessa.
Somebody died because the person slipped on ice, and then

(17:45):
the mayor of the city points towards Zelenski saying that
somebody who is his friend or appointee or protege failed
to put enough sand on the icy roads, so people
started slipping and dying and hurting themselves. So it's all
used for political gaming, as we see, and this always
being just massaged instead of taking sharp, smart decisions. For example,

(18:07):
Savig Schuster's media person producer somehow is now responsible for
antidron dome, and that's a new term running in the
Ukrainian media. Will be creating antidron don And people are
reviewing the historical the archived videos where he was talking
about the same idea back in twenty twenty three, and

(18:28):
now he's talking about that in twenty twenty six, and
some people are actually hopeful that he'll bring AI and
more new technologists to use that. What thoughts do you
have about it? Well, Alexander, you probably no understand my position.
Perhaps the dome may make things better, but it will
not generally shift the system, but will not change the

(18:51):
system because all of these corruptoids, only people in power,
they are part of that system. They will they're not
for changing it. We already saw that the war humanitarian
catastrophe is not a reason to change their system. I
understood that back in the twenty second when the war started,
when I saw how they made first decisions the first

(19:16):
nine days. Yes, they were frantically making very often correct
decisions under pressure of circumstance. But in between and sooner
rather than later, they started to do the usual repressing
those who speak against them and support those who lick
their boots. And I don't think even massive termin nucleus

(19:38):
strike is capable of changing that in Ukraine. Do you
think Greenland may change things now? Alexandri Greenland has nothing
to do with Ukraine. Trump had said everything correctly. Europeans,
you should not be concerned with Greenland. You should be
more concerned with the Ukraine's war in Russia. Europeans started

(19:59):
talking about possibly having a military union between Ukraine and
Europe without United States. That indeed is being reviewed. But again,
this is not like some NATO that will become a
fact tomorrow. This is just some idea that is being
floated in behind the scenes. So it's a very remote goalpost.

(20:28):
And you know what you can believe in, what you
can rely upon, that's probably that existing system perhaps can
become more effective by certain percentage. We can maybe discuss
that that the current system in Ukraine corrupt as it is,
there are ways to make it a little more effective. True,

(20:51):
the ways to change it completely and make something fantastic
out of it. No, I don't see it under the
current group in power thing. I don't see Greenland making
Europeans really change their ways. I mean, you cannot prohibit
people from believing things like that, but I don't see
Europe really making ambig shift because of that. Okay, say

(21:13):
Sanansky recently announced some special operations that he is planning.
So he did not announce that he will knock on
all doors to arrange for energy truths for some hereal
cease fire to help you Ukrainians. He's talking from the opposite.

(21:36):
Why is he doing that well, because he needs to
somehow underline his effect his actions. That See, Russia took
out the electricity, but we blew up there general, so
we're doing asymmetry and Russians shut down Kursk Belgrad before that.
They continue doing that and Ukraine does massometer answer by

(22:01):
destroying some bridge in Russia or blowing up some other general.
So as long as Russia is not agreeing to what
Zelensky wants and Selenski is not agreeing to Russia. That's
they change, they will continue having and the war will
go on. Today MSS went out and said that with

(22:26):
a statement that sixty two percent of Ukrainians trust Zelensky,
Fyodorf Pritula, you have the others are also saying that
supposedly this is correct. So is it the story like
with the Oval Office, Like you've failed in everything, You've

(22:46):
pooped yourself in front of the cameras, but Ukrainians still
believe you. Well, the choice is very complex here, Alexander.
If one is to disbelieve Zelenski's narrative and see his
uh disaster in the Oval Office and other international disasters
the way we are talking about them here, one needs

(23:07):
to have really big brass balls to consider it this way,
because for people that would mean catastrophe, the majority of
people in Ukraine, that would mean to understand the depth
of the failure of the system at which you were
hoping that you will survive, that your family and children

(23:29):
will survive, That this system is completely disabled, it's corrupt,
and this is A hero is much stronger than the
average heroic capability of an average Ukrainian citizen. And many
people believe that the worst things are the more they
start to believe they're whatever they hear from Zelenski's office,
because believing the alternative is just freaking scary. Alex say,

(23:56):
do you think Ukrainians have a chance, a chance to
what a chance to conclude this war honorably? How would
you imply that, Well, I don't know. Let's see, perhaps
untouched their city somewhere one hundred and fifty kilometers away

(24:19):
from the current front line, some understandable power in Ukraine
with the anthem flag insignia, right, Because when Timoshenka was
being prosecuted. You remember what she said, right, She said
that I'm not going to leave the country until Ukraine

(24:42):
is liberated from de facto fascist regime, pointing at Zelensky, right,
who is liberating our country from Zelensky from fascist regen?
I think Judah is spilling some of the things she
actually thinking. Oh yeah, she probably talked about things that
she knows a lot of people are pondering. And she

(25:08):
also described her attitude to the current administration. Because how
should I say that this is a very historical question,
whether dissident position can be requested from the big layers
of society, because dissident is usually an exception, somebody with

(25:29):
wits with high IQ, somebody ready to rebel by default.
There are not many of them. They cannot be many
of them. Dissident position is difficult because you need to
see the pluses and minuses, because if you go just
to one side, you become like the dark propagandist of
the other side. Right if you're singing just against the power.
You need to be able to take both sides and

(25:51):
address different sides of concerns you see in the current world.
There is a lot of information that you can acquire,
but you cannot demand the person to be fully informed
like a general of special services, like politicians. But you

(26:11):
can demand from the citizen to be generally aware and
rely on different mass media, different sources of media to
form his views and opinions. Most people don't want to
even go that way. They would have to expand a
lot of remaining forces they have, and the truth is
so horrible that can break a lot of them. That's

(26:34):
why many people prefer to believe the illusion. That's why
you can see more hysteria, more attacks on people who
think differently people prefer to frame their official or preferred
point of view. Some are visible place on the wall
in their homes and never take it down because now

(26:57):
we can see with that exper horrible experiment with the
freezing city, is that the Maslows pyramid is actually upside down.
That's what I keep saying in my class is that
the main thing is to answer the question who am I?
Because people can survive without food and heat for quite
a while when they know what they're doing and why

(27:18):
they're doing it. What is the basis for propaganda? For
Zelenski's propaganda? Because people are free to acknowledge the alternative,
otherwise the whole pyramid will collapse. And not that there's
no alternative, Alexey. There is always an alternative Alexander. For example, peace,

(27:39):
whatever terms right, current terms, parliament rule, parliament, republic instead
of president. There are options, but people would have to
acknowledge that they are powerless, that they cannot currently affect
the existing power. Remember the slogans after the second Mi
done move the power installed a new one if we

(28:03):
have to. So one wants to ask a question here, Okay,
so where's that method, right, Alexei. Nobody is removing anybody,
and there are no even attempts to push Zelenski's power.
There are no millions or hundreds of thousands upset at maximum.
You'll see some local protests why the neighbor house has

(28:23):
electricity and we don't, and the power is using the
fact that there is nobody to punish them. All right,
I say, I want to address another thing. There are
a lot of resources in Ukraine, some of them more adequate,
others less adequate, but many of them are saying that

(28:44):
this is some perversion. And I still want to bring
up this topic as an experiment with you. Let's imagine
this is not crazy. Let's say this is not propaganda,
and it's not Zi lanskis off his push, but this
is somewhat realistic. So here is Vladimir suerdcha Is writing

(29:08):
in his controversial post. Friends, just understand hear me out
that after the war's over, there'll be no other job
in the country that'll pay you twenty five to thirty thousand,
and then there'll be the moment of truth about those
guys who were avoiding the drafting commission. A lot of

(29:30):
them will be asking to or begging to be drafted
in the army to pay to get paid at least
five hundred dollars a month, maybe for kitchen duties or something,
but it'll be too late. And from understanding that everything
is generally over, the military commander will close the doors

(29:53):
for intake and just breathing freshly, drink vodka and recent
meal on you, saying go of yourself because we don't
need your help. Now where were you when we needed you?
And he will go to slip it out over life
is cruel. Today's you're running away avoiding the draft. Tomorrow

(30:15):
you have no job and no opportunity, so think about
it today. So that's the main message of this weird post.
That's how person is thinking and is translating that he's
broadcasting that. And Alex say, do you think that scenario
is even plausible something like that, that there could be

(30:38):
a reality behind this somewhat idiotic post. Okay, is he military?
He a serviceman? Yeah? I think so. Then I think
what he's writing here is that his consciousness telling him
or subconsciousness telling him the truth about the war. Because
I don't think he's a career military. I think he

(30:58):
joined military at some point. You usually learn it on
the third day of military school fellows. If there'll be
the war in your life, just remember that three hours
after the under war, nobody needs you. Don't think too
much about yourself. Military are like monks. They're not interesting

(31:22):
to anybody. They're not of interest during the peace times.
Then everybody prays to them and calls them their saviors
during the war, and after that, five minutes after they
are not known again and not need it again. So
I think this person is finally recognizing this simple truth,
and he is seeing also that the army is becoming

(31:44):
the gathering of those people who failed to pay the
bribe and not be drafted, and after the war it
will be a catastrophe. Military is often compared to a
horse and a parade. Your face is in the flowers,
your butt is a sweat and it looks nice, and

(32:09):
the outward on the backyard. It's a lot of work.
And after the war, eight hundred thousand will be laid off,
and at best that'll shake their hands before letting before
discharging them. And then civilian service people will tell you
that I didn't send you there, and then there'll be

(32:30):
lists of those who demand too much. They're already some
of the beginnings of these lists appearing in the society
that these people demand too much. There will be a
lot of local conflicts where PTSD expilatory will be waving
the weapons or throwing grenades. Will be likely political conflicts

(32:52):
where one hero of Ukraine will be killing another hero
of Ukraine for a different point of view, and the
general rank or name of a military will be devaluated
after that, and people will basically try to avoid it,
and you may end up with you know, knowing that

(33:14):
there is somebody living in this house who's with PTSD
from the war, and nobody knows how this person will
behave We don't want to we don't know what to
do with that person. We cannot take that person to
the sanitarium because they're likely will let him go, and
after that it'll be life on your own. All these

(33:35):
stories about veterans, businesses, veterans brotherhood, this is in my
view propaganda for the most part. In some cases it
may work and very often ends up being criminal organizations.
And in America, for example, Vietnam veterans became calls angels
score at the beginning, right, I think that's the example.

(33:58):
One can think of some thing and then what military
it will probably return back to it. Engineers will start
building go to construction. Why would a military serviceman who
was drafted from some village who never held anything sophisticated

(34:19):
before being drafted, and some sophisticated it person from a
bigger city who has been working on corporate networks, how
do you think they will remain friends. They may congratulate
each other with birthdays and holidays from afar, but they
don't see them maintaining their friendship unless it's some exclusion

(34:41):
from the rule. And as I said, people are dying alone.
At best. You can rely on your family and a
very small circle of friends that you have. So all
these stories that military upon returning from war will change
a thing and give us better society and make grain better.

(35:04):
All these fairy tales remind me of highlighting science fiction.
It's good for teenagers. But yeah, we see some people
are already recognizing having some precognitions of their future after
this war. And ultimately it will not be the ones

(35:24):
who fought and lost their health at war, but those
who did not expand their life resources at battle. Those
will be in a stronger position in many cases, and
if the war will be lost, or somewhat lost. You
can multiply everything by three at least. Well, Alexei, it

(35:45):
seems like we are going to a defeat in this war,
aren't we. Well no, not completely, but to a degree.
This war will have been viewed as the lost one
or partially lost. So yeah, it'll be more difficult to
reintegrate from the social, psychological, and other sides back into society.

(36:06):
Will have to solve a huge task that very few
countries were successful solving, because if we would not have
something similar to Marshall's plan back in Europe days after
the Second World War will be the country that is
living on donations, with a huge political crisis brooding and

(36:29):
millions of veterans who are eager to continue violence. You
can look at how our military during our military times,
how our authorities are solving the problems with electricity. That's
how they will likely be solving other things after the war.
That's why all I can say if you want to

(36:51):
ask me what they want to do about this post,
I mean I can give this person a hug and
I can really sympathize with him. All right, I have
an opinion here. I'm seeing that you know, the government
is hanging up another carrot in front of the donkey

(37:14):
to make sure that the country follows that Trump and
the West will give us money. But I do not
really see that becoming true because recently, supposedly we met
with Peter Pavel and check you, and we were celebrating

(37:38):
some achievements and contracts, and now media apparently publishing a
recursion from that saying that no, we'll not get those
light check made jets because they need themselves, and yeah,
let's not continue this topic. Drop the subject. Wherever you look.
We getting issues with shells or getting issues with munitions.

(38:02):
Vehicles are not being supplied as promised. So if Europe,
when tested for real, cannot defend I've not been talking
about us. They can't defend even Greenland, the territory of
their own member, the native member, an ally, and they
don't know how to defend an ally from an ally.

(38:26):
So how do you think Europe can defend Ukraine? Look?
What is eight hundred billion that's the price of Greenland
for example, right, Yeah, even in America, these money they're
not laying anywhere. There's no place where somebody stores eight
hundred billion dollars. What is it you can create a

(38:47):
series of programs. If there'll be macroeconomic problems, if they're
properly implemented, then the overall benefit from these programs over
time over ten years probably will come or may come
up to eight hundred billion. And not that like we're
asking for eight hundred billions to to support your great

(39:07):
somebody will just bring you bags with money. Over the
years of war, we got about five hundred billion dollars
invested in this and did you feel it? Did you
notice it? Because it takes skill to manage money, whether
it's ten dollars, five dollars, five billion dollars or eight

(39:30):
hundred billion dollars. Because the first thing the current government
will try to do is to benefit on them, they
likely will be some profit. There'll be probably an agency
of rebuilding, reconstruction. There'll be a lot of questions that
nobody is really bringing up now. Currently we're more bothered
by planting our flags and coupons and other places. But

(39:52):
I'm not seeing our leadership looking at the future problems
that will arise, and they will arise after this war.
So the more optimistic, the more logical picture you will
draw how we will conclude this war and how we
will proceed after you will create a proper motivation for

(40:16):
people to finish this war properly and then to start
rebuilding society as planned. Okay, LEXI, So do you have
an idea how to do it properly? I'm not asking
this question from the point of view a military but
I'm asking this question from the point of view of
a citizen. Well, I'm not answering it as a military person.
I would answer it from the politician's standpoint of view
or a citizen standpoint of view. You need to conclude

(40:40):
this war, sign piece deal, summarize the losses, and figure
out how you're gonna rebuild it and fix it. There
is no other option. Yeah, you can slowly fight, continue
fighting this war and slowly withdrawing and bleeding your country
and losing lives. So it's almost like you're already fallen

(41:01):
through ice and now you're grasping on some heavy stones
to put on your neck to go deeper. But the
world is interesting because you know, some people are still
playing the tune that listen, you are cowards and traders
because you're suggesting this, And what if we will prevail.
What if we managed to push Russia away and recapture

(41:22):
the territories back and win this war, and then you
are just stinky traders. So is it possible? Maybe? Is
it probable? Very unlikely, And that's why I'm holding the
position that we're holding here, and I cannot rely on
anything else other than what I've suggested, because any other

(41:46):
pathway would mean a very serious change, a very serious
break or change of the country and lowering the corruption,
increasing the productivity. Nothing of that is possible without the
change of the system. The current system as it exists

(42:06):
is only fit to slowly keep losing this war. How
long will it be allowed to do that and to
what degree of demolition destruction. This is a subject for discussion,
whether Europe is helping, states are helping, whether everybody mobilizes
or not. But the current system doesn't have any other vector,
doesn't have any other option, and it does make sense,

(42:31):
understand me, hear me out. It does make sense to
continue fighting if there is hope. Now. Their only belief
is just hold longer. We need to hold one day
longer than Russia because Russia is going to collapse tomorrow.
I mean, there are people who still believe that. I
cannot believe that the facts are not supporting it, and
I think we need to stop the bleeding. We need

(42:53):
to end this war and concentrate on rebuilding our country.
I'll say there is another problem I wanted to bring
up too late. I won't go into too many details,
but Ballpark, the head of the Central Election Committee, gave
an intribute to reader saying that elections will not work.

(43:14):
Elections in the phone are illegal. We cannot, however, gather
people in the voting precincts, maybe only in the embassies
outside of Ukraine. In Ukraine, it's dangerous. And we also
understand that people do not really am not specifically looking
for elections in light of not having electricity, not having heat,

(43:37):
and yet the powers are still doing something somewhat to
prepare the elections. However, it feels like the topic of
elections is gone from the agenda, which is going through
some motions, but there is no end goal, and Zarinsky
is just playing his role talking to important people, making

(44:00):
notes and statements that yes, we are discussing, yes we're
heading this way, that he's meeting even his potential opponents
on the elections and showing that he's controlling the situation.
How would you gauge the degree of control of this
political situation by Zelenski and his authorities. Well, it's obvious, Alexander,

(44:22):
if he had real control, he would not be meeting
with volunteers and with so many other individuals separately. Because
if everything works, you don't need to emphasize your individual meetings.
Your system works. You work on solving tasks, especially in
times of war, right right, Like that meeting with Prittula,

(44:45):
When officially the meeting happened and then somehow this person
got the money from the government, there a lot of questions,
was that for the meeting? Was that for what? So
this is another sign the disruption of protocol only happens
when your life is tough. So that's either a form

(45:06):
of putting somebody down and in a very uncomfortable position
when the president is lexing his muscle, or perhaps an
attempt to negotiate about future. You don't break protocol just
because but it looks like there'll be no elections, Lexi,

(45:29):
Well they might still hold them, but they'll be holding
them with a hope or aspiration that nothing will change,
and Vladimir Alexandro vit Zelenski will remain the son president
of Ukraine, and he might even invite those whom he
finds agreement with from his opposition into his cabinet. Political

(45:53):
system always tries to preserve itself. Self preservation its main goal.
Don't have too much of a runway for self preservation.
But you can observe via clich Coo accusing bank Bankov,
accusing mayor of the city, Mayor of Kiev Clitchko. And
they will continue doing that to the end of their rule.

(46:14):
And that's the main thing that they're in their focus,
not the economic development and human development of Ukraine. These
people are interested in power. What other proof do you need?
People are dying for four years, freezing to death and didn't.
It's not a cause enough for them to change, and
they won't never. This is plain impossible. We can leave

(46:38):
half a percent for miracle, but otherwise, Now, all right,
this is my personal opinion, Alexey, and I've had it
for a while. Then I kind of kept it down
because of all of the different events. But now I
think the opinion is valid again that Trump will likely

(47:01):
try to finish the war in Ukraine in a similar
model that with Gaza. They'll have those and it exists
in those twenty points that they discussed with z Lanska.
They'll probably create some board of peace. It's already making
noise in regards to Gaza that structure, and the journalist

(47:24):
Barakarida from Presspool is saying that they're already expecting some
signatories on Thursday in Davos to join the board and
they already are getting an interesting suggestions. And Piscofi is
saying that Pulchin was called, was invited. Lukashenka is showing

(47:48):
a letter sent to him by Trump. Macron supposedly will refuse,
but nobody is sure. And frankly, it costs a billion
dollars to enter the board, so it's a pretty high
entry fee. Do you think a similar board may happen
in regards to Ukraine. Oh, from the beginning, and it

(48:14):
was also proposed in about trillion dollars a fund between Russia,
China and the United States and Europe. Back then it
was pushed back and it didn't work for Trump here,
but at least it was stabled for now. But he's
repeating that similar idea in Gaza, just differently. It's the

(48:35):
same idea, it's just more localized for Gaza because it
didn't work on the bigger scale of Ukraine, but he's
implementing that in Gaza. Yes, all right, we're talking here
about Ukraine. Why our leaders are so dumb that they
can't take Trump's advice on that piece and play that

(48:56):
scenario with the board because they don't see a under
how to stain power and make money on this board
And they will not make a single motion for unless
they figure out how to make money on it. That's
very simple. Wait, how can you make money when you
give lithium minds where you're getting only two percent when

(49:21):
everybody we're hoping you'll get at least fifty, Well, you know,
two percent. You can still make money. You can take
one percent of these two and yeah, that's it's more
money for the government, but for people in power, that's
twenty thirty million dollars a year. That's significant, maybe even

(49:43):
more so until they see benefits. I don't see them
actively supporting any peace deal. Just to underline that again,
and it's difficult to make conclusions without knowing the full picture,
but I can guarantee you they will not change it

(50:03):
unless they see the benefit for themselves. But you still
see that there'll be some Peace Council in Ukraine, Frank Alexander,
we don't know how it will end in Ukraine. Is
there a probability for that though, Alexei. Yeah, they might be,
or we may see the country fighting to such a
degree and to such a stage that no Council of

(50:26):
peace may help. Guys, it will help. It's interesting. We'll
see if that system works there, and if it does,
you know, they'll use the same golden hammer, because hey,
it worked there, let's use it here. Likely they'll be
pushing it onto Ukraine as well. Again, and you can
see that golden hammer principle everywhere. Strategy of Ukraine in

(50:49):
this war is a good example. Whatever worked in March
of twenty two, they're trying to recreate that and bigger
scale in different parts. Right now, all right, let's go
to the front. There are interesting messages about Hardcove and
the Parocia Liman things are happening the Parogia nuclear power station.

(51:16):
Supposedly they are going through some peace deal there and
restoring some power lines that was broken. I want you
to comment on Silsky interview to the Left Bank publication
and as people are saying this was a mighty statement

(51:38):
he's saying that mobilization is going better than seven or
eight months ago. The I may misspoken. I think it
was seven or eight months, but okay, anyway, he's saying
it's better. He is also saying that will go into offensive.

(52:01):
We cannot keep sitting in defenses, will continue our efforts
to push on Russia. So the interviewer is asking him
about the ables, and he's answering that, yeah, we still
have those. If you leave your detachment, you will send
you to the front line to zero and we cannot
transfer you for rotation because it's war and we don't

(52:25):
have too many resources. If you listen to sis K,
everything is fantastic, I think. I guess that's his point
of view or from his position he has to report
this way. But being logical, can Ukraine counter attack anywhere?
Or coupons? Is that counter offensive? Remember how we we're
discussing the propolio ears, how they were cut off and

(52:47):
then presented as counter offensive, and now our fights around
Kupans can pushing Russian army from this township. Well, Alexander,
I would not want to go too deep into options
of where can we exercise our counter offensive because it's
somewhat sensitive topic. Let's not go into too many details

(53:11):
on the options there, but Bullpark. When you counter attack,
you make sure that you pick the right area. You
need to have a certain disposition there with the enemy
weaker than you, and then you always have to remember
that counter offensive counter attack is always temporary, because the
enemy always gathers his wits and starts to counter you

(53:36):
in return at some point. So, okay, we may, in
the case of success, do similar things to Coupman's corporation,
may even hold it for a quarter and then lose
it after, but it will win us some time. It
will bring our spirits up. Sure, okay, very interesting that

(54:04):
I say. Let's go on the along the front and
let's start with Let's start with the border. We saw
a new attempts to recon the situation along the border.

(54:26):
We saw the capture of a village Diktarna. This is
village near Volchansk, Ukraine. Ukraine is not confirming the losses.
Deep State still shows it somewhat Ukraine controlled, but more
notes coming from the front line saying that Russia is

(54:47):
or has taken it. Do you think this can be
explained by military necessity and the areas of possible counter
offensive you're not talking about, because this possibly can be
the area because we attacked Russia from course district and
now they're fortifying their positions there. No, I don't see

(55:08):
us doing it into Russian territory because it'll be taken
poorly by those who are facilitating the peace process in Washington.
This is somewhat beyond what they would like to see.
So I do expect our count attacks within our own
territory of Ukraine. Yeah, that's why I'm showing that dictatne

(55:33):
That's where I supposedly Russia is pushing us out, so
they will be likely fortifying the areas to report that, hey,
we pushed Ukrainians back or prevented them from coming. But
I think us mostly concentrating near Kramatosk area, that's where
we need to fight to prolong that situation. And Zaparagia

(55:58):
they're mostly going to the border of the region on
political reasons. All right, So let's go back to the south.
Let's look at Russian push here. It is indicated by
grey zone Niar Irishnue Malaka, Tirinovka, and this is beyond
step Nagorska. This shows that the distance to Sabarogia is

(56:19):
much shorter now. Yeah, that's within twenty kilometers. I want
to say that forty six kilometers from Afdifka to the
current area. This took them about over a year to
take forty six kilometers. So Zabarogia now is becoming a

(56:40):
front city. Even field artillery may reach it within twenty kilometers,
and the logic is the same. Russia are pushing from
the south and they're trying to make a pincer from
the eastern flank. Also, the enemies reported that ni Arihov

(57:04):
they got some success. Big question whether we believe that
or not, but that's what they're reporting. So the main
intrigue here is whether they will continue going to Bardvinkova
and whether they want to surround Danyevsk region on its
perimeter or whether they will just limit themselves to acting

(57:27):
inside Danyevsk region. So that piece that we see a
remainder of Danyeesk region. Basically right now, we can say
that there are fights over Stagorsk in the top of
the map. The terrain there is difficult, but roughly you

(57:50):
can see that they're probably pushing to surround it this
way through the Barpolio and through Stagorsk. Now, this is
a difficult story. It's a long pain, it's not a cakewalk.
But what it allows them to do is that to
continue attacking the logistics, continue disrupting supplies to the remainder

(58:13):
of Danyesk district, and it also allows them to avoid
hitting our fortifications straight on. It allows them to maneuver
around them. Now, as for Slavyanska, Metorsk, Drkovka, Konstantinovka, they're

(58:33):
still holding, but you can see how they're trying to
grow their pincer on the top nearly man and if
they solve the coupmin's problem, they will continue pushing towards
the Zoom as well. So they likely will try to
pincer surround surround that area in Donysk. But there is
really big temptation for them to go to that Barvinkova,

(58:56):
the one that you circled on the map. This is
the big railroad high and cargo hub. This is where
the data, this is where the munitions and everything are
being supplied through. So it's not a big secret and
everybody knows it. So if they go there, then we
understand their ideation if they won't, then means either they

(59:17):
don't have enough forces aggregated, or maybe there are some
other plans they have. And here they are trying to
separate our troops and they're really bothered by that military
group that we have on the right bank of a
skull that's still holding that green area, that's holding the

(59:40):
area near Baravaya. So look, everybody is aggregating and telling
us that they're fighting their equipments. Russians are saying they're
still controlling part of a city. Ukraine is saying that
here are our flags. We are successfully pushing them out.
There is even some western press fighting about it, but

(01:00:01):
a little south, nobody is commenting on the situation with Baravayah.
What's happening there? Well, for simple reason, this is where
the good third Core is fighting, and there are very
few people who are strong enough to talk about successes

(01:00:21):
or losses of the Third Core. And with all due
respect to that core, they are moving back, they're retreating
a bit, they're losing territories over time. And if you
look at this that the third Core will destroy all
enemies and is fighting fantastically, well, it's a legend. They
are conducting heavy fighting, but they're withdrawing just like our

(01:00:43):
troops and other locales. So one can ask or compare
the degree of effort Russia is exerting at their position,
But very few people in Ukraine can bring up the
topic that the Third Core is failing in Ukraine media.
Why do you think people are afraid of that? Well,

(01:01:05):
because they're scary, right, they're bearded while everybody is bearded
on the front, Alexi. Well, no, they're bearded with the
meaning in their eyes. You know, they're creating a legend
about unforgiving, strict, glorious third Core, and nobody wants to
even try to discuss that situation, and those who want

(01:01:30):
to talk about them only want to sing us in
US and praise them to get another medal from President.
So you know, when ever legend is ending with the
Third Core coming to the rescue, you can Yeah, let's
not talk about mythology of this war, all right, Lexi.
We may continue looking at more parts of the map.

(01:01:51):
We'll talk about North as well, But my question about
Bravaya is Zum. I'm getting a lot of questions from
people who still live in Iszum. This is the wi
fi we have, This is how we get it. And
you know, these are the Wi fi names of networks
that we have. And there are weird numbers and weird

(01:02:12):
names like death to all Russian Children. And yeah, there
are weird reports coming from the township near the war,
near the area of Third Core, and local citizens taking
pictures of some random swastikas in some places, and if

(01:02:33):
before they were described as symbols or runic characters or
some other war romance romanticizing, now these days people just
taking pictures and saying, hey, listen, that's what's happening. That's reality.
When Alexey has that become normal for Ukrainian troops to

(01:02:58):
use these symbols, well, thankfully, not to all the army
of Ukraine, but only to the most mythologized troops of Ukraine.
There are not many of them like this. Other Ukrainian
soldiers are at least not exceptive, not receptive of that
culture subculture, and the government forgives them because he relies

(01:03:19):
in on the soldiers in the elections, and he's also
concerned that they will be what they might become his
opponents and push him out. So yeah, they're battleworthy, they're capable,
and he just allows that subculture to exist there, because

(01:03:40):
it's also very uncomfortable for propaganda to acknowledge that what
Solovyov was partially correct in Russia when he was making
statements about that. Here one can rely only on brave
Yule Timoshenka, who is coming out and saying that, yeah,
our regime is somewhat fascist regime in quotes because yeah,

(01:04:03):
not proven, but still yeah. She is pushing back, and
you know what dictatorship is, Like Ivan Ufreima wrote in
The Hour of the Bull, he is saying that this
is a very mighty steamroll that destroys everybody, but at
the same time it's very brittle. It can push through,
it can steam you over, but if you hit it

(01:04:24):
in the right weak spot, it might just fall apart.
And the system will try to avoid acknowledging the weak
spots for as long as they can. For example, the
fact that some of the Ukrainian soldiers and commanders like
to hang the portrait of Ottos Kurtzeny and some of
the Kammand outposts, and when the audits from Kiev kam,
it's just they don't feel pressed to hide it anywhere.

(01:04:46):
Scotsenya was okay, he is not a Hitler. He was
the chief of the special operations in his military and
successful one. So the explanation is that that is what
they're focusing on, that he was a professional, and then
he worked with Israelis after. So yeah, but this is
our reality. It's weird, it's deadly, it's horrible, it's cute,

(01:05:07):
it's everything together. Okay, So let's look here towards Harkiev
or do you see some activation of the fights in
the area about perhaps because we continue attacking Bill got
it across the border. Do you think there's a chance
of Russians pushing forward and moving the front closer to

(01:05:28):
Harkov itself. No, I don't see it this way. In
order for them to proceed forward, to push us from
the border, they need significant advantage, they need reserves, they
don't have them as well, and they just are creating
political pressure here. Look, we're still attacking Harkov the west. See,
we're still targeting their major cities and townships and sending

(01:05:51):
a message to Ukrainian citizens that eventually will maybe get
to that city. And they also want us to our reserves.
They know how Zedansky reacts to that. If they take
a small village on the border. Zanski will send an
order to send some reserves that are direly needed on
some other parts of the front to take back that

(01:06:13):
not really needed village. At the moment, I should say
that I understand that this has needed an important village
for those who live there, but strategically it's much less
important than many other directions in this front, and assume
Alexei the same logic. Absolutely, creating pressure on the border

(01:06:34):
is a strong political factor. They know that Zedanski will
try to drop some reserves there to huff and puff
and show that no, we won't let Russians penetrate the
border there. We've been actually building fortifications along this border,
and it's difficult for them to proceed to advance without
suffering significant losses. This is not time, not a place.

(01:06:54):
They don't have resources for that maneuver. For any successful attack,
you need to withdraw equipment and people from other parts
of the front, which are much more important. End of
the first hour, m

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