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July 1, 2026 33 mins

Can Tom beat the average American on a personal finance quiz?

Don puts Tom in the hot seat with eight questions drawn from a financial literacy quiz developed by researchers at Stanford University and TIAA. The topics range from earning, budgeting, inflation, investing, debt, insurance, and risk to evaluating investment advice. Along the way, there’s plenty of good-natured ribbing, a debate over compounding, and a reminder that even financial professionals can stumble on carefully worded questions.

Later, the guys answer listener questions about whether the small-cap value premium still exists despite the rise of private equity, and whether exotic portfolios like the “Golden Butterfly” really deserve their impressive back-tested reputations.

Plus, Tom gives an enthusiastic endorsement of Don’s Civil War novel, The Line Uncrossed.

00:18 – Tom faces an eight-question financial literacy quiz
03:49 – Inflation versus savings: the trickiest question
05:53 – Why diversification beats owning a single stock
07:11 – The power—and danger—of compound interest
08:50 – Insurance coverage young adults actually need
09:52 – Expected value and lottery math
11:10 – Appropriate investments for different ages
12:40 – Why compounding may be the most important concept in investing
13:39 – Which asset classes have historically produced the highest returns?
16:03 – Does the small-cap value premium still exist?
23:01 – Should investors trust the Golden Butterfly portfolio?
26:45 – Tom’s review of The Line Uncrossed
29:17 – Free meetings with Appella advisors
31:11 – Blue shirts, blue eyes, and wrapping up

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Episode Transcript

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SPEAKER_06 (00:05):
We're gonna do a really great financial feature.
Don and Don are talking realmoney.

SPEAKER_00 (00:18):
It's time to play games on Talking Real Money.
Hello everyone, I'm DonMcDonald, your host for another
exciting quiz edition of theTalking Real Money Podcast.
Today, from the pages of MoneyMagazine, a quiz entitled Can
you answer these eight personalfinance questions better than

(00:40):
most Americans?
We'll find out soon with ourcontestant, Mr.
Thomas Charles Cock.
Tom, welcome to whatever thename of this quiz is, because I
just forgot it, it was so darnlong.

SPEAKER_03 (00:54):
I just want to make clear, I don't want to do this.
I don't like these quizzes.
I and here's why I don't.

SPEAKER_02 (00:59):
Because basically, it's let's see how many times
Tom can be wrong on thesethings.
Okay.
People go, wait, he got itwrong.

SPEAKER_00 (01:06):
Here's the key.
I want you to concentrate.

SPEAKER_02 (01:08):
Please, focusing.

SPEAKER_00 (01:09):
Pay attention to the question.
Okay.
And then pay attention to theanswers.
Now, this is this was in money.
It was based on a uh quiz, a28-question quiz from Stanford
University and Tia, the annuitypeople.
But this is only eight of the 28questions on their quiz.

SPEAKER_02 (01:27):
Anna Marie Lussardi, the one I was on the podcast
with.
She's very bright.
Yeah.
Use the word of financialliteracy.

SPEAKER_00 (01:34):
I I I I I'm only doing the eight, Tom.
I'm not doing all 28.

SPEAKER_02 (01:38):
Thank you for relaxing.
Completely embarrassing me.
So I like that.

SPEAKER_00 (01:42):
All right.
Are you ready for today's?

SPEAKER_02 (01:44):
As I'll ever be.
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (01:46):
Yeah.
Are you sure?

SPEAKER_02 (01:48):
Not really.
No.
I didn't I just say, no, I don'tlike doing this, but I'm going
to do it anyway.
I'll do it on the other side.

SPEAKER_00 (01:52):
I want everybody to pay attention.
Pay attention.
Ready?

SPEAKER_03 (01:55):
Okay.
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (01:55):
Here's question number one.
It concerns earning money, Tom.
Earning money.
That's our topic.

SPEAKER_03 (02:03):
Can I just encourage others in my life to do that?
Would that be okay?

SPEAKER_00 (02:06):
Earning money instead of you?
All right.
Tom's salary.
Oh no, it says Mark's.
Mark's salary has increased overthe past two years.
What would be a plausible reasonfor this?
You have four choices.
Okay.
A.
The number of workers withMatt's skills has increased over

(02:27):
the past two years.
Oh no, no, I did.
The number of workers withMatt's skills increased where he
lives and works.
I skipped it over back.
Yeah.
That's that's A.
B.
Mark completed several trainingcourses at his local college.
C.
New technology reduced thedemand for workers with Mark's

(02:48):
skills.
Or the fallback question foryou, which is usually going to
be effective but wrong, is D, Idon't know.

SPEAKER_02 (02:56):
Well, it's never going to be I don't know.
D is I don't know.
I'm going to go with the uhadditional training, the
college, etc.
Additional training.
You went with B, is thatcorrect?

SPEAKER_00 (03:08):
That's right.
Yep.
Correct answer.

SPEAKER_03 (03:11):
Can we stop right there?

SPEAKER_00 (03:12):
No, now it's on to spending.
And again, this is one of thosewhere you need to pay attention.
Good because all the money getsspent in my house.
I should be ready to handlethis.
But you know all about this one.
Yeah, go.
A household budget cannot beused for which of the following?
A.
To plan for necessary householdexpenses.
B.

(03:32):
To plan household discretionaryspending.
C to track household financialassets or the fallback.
Answer D.
Dono.

SPEAKER_02 (03:43):
I'm going to go with the C on this one.

SPEAKER_00 (03:49):
That is the correct answer.

SPEAKER_02 (03:50):
And I'm retiring.

SPEAKER_00 (03:51):
I want to say effective and correct.
You are you are just have everbeen 100% on anything.
You are progressing betw uhtoward the grand prize.

SPEAKER_03 (04:00):
So which is I gotta do another one of these damn
quizzes, right?

SPEAKER_00 (04:04):
Exactly.
All right.
Number three, see, we're workingour way through the world of
finance.
Number three has to do withsaving money.
Okay?
Are you ready?

SPEAKER_01 (04:15):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (04:16):
A Kiko has$1,000 in savings that earns a two percent
rate of return over the courseof the year.
The inflation rate during theyear is three percent.
Which statement is true?

SPEAKER_02 (04:30):
So she's making two on the savings and inflation's
running at three.

SPEAKER_00 (04:33):
That is correct.

SPEAKER_02 (04:34):
Okay.
That's not a good thing, by theway, just for those of you
listening at home.
That would be bad.

SPEAKER_00 (04:39):
A.
Yes.
She can afford to buy fewerthings at the end of the year.
B, she can afford to buy morethings at the end of the year.
C, it's not clear whether shecan afford to buy more things or
fewer things at the end of theyear.
Or D, which is basically thesame as C.

SPEAKER_03 (04:56):
It really is.
Don't do D.

SPEAKER_00 (04:57):
Don't know.

SPEAKER_02 (04:58):
Yeah, but because you've already told me don't do
D, you dummy.
D is for dummies.
Uh I'm gonna go with C.
It's not that's not very clear.

SPEAKER_00 (05:09):
It's it is totally clear.

SPEAKER_02 (05:11):
It's not say that she's spending the money, it's
that she's saving the money.
She's making the money.

SPEAKER_00 (05:15):
I know, but if but no, listen to the answer.
She can afford to buy fewerthings at the end of the year,
or she can afford to buy morethings at the end of the year.

SPEAKER_02 (05:24):
Unexpected expenses, that kind of thing that she had
to spend the money on.

SPEAKER_00 (05:28):
Okay.
I'm gonna do it again.
I'm two out of three.
That's good.
I'll call it there.
Trevor Burrus, Jr.
It's A.
She can afford to buy fewerthings with that money.
That was implied in thequestion.

SPEAKER_02 (05:39):
Okay.
All right.
I I didn't know.

SPEAKER_00 (05:41):
You are not allowed to extrapolate additional
factors.

SPEAKER_03 (05:45):
If I'm your financial advisor, I'm like, fix
that.

SPEAKER_00 (05:48):
First of all, make less than inflation.
That's bad.
This is the saddest thing.
Or investing.
Which statement about investingis correct, Tom?

SPEAKER_02 (05:58):
Okay, please.

SPEAKER_00 (05:58):
This is about investing.
This is your area of expertise.
If you fail this question, it'sover.
You are done.

SPEAKER_03 (06:07):
Can I quit today?

SPEAKER_00 (06:08):
And you're younger than me.

SPEAKER_03 (06:10):
I'm fully aware of that.

SPEAKER_00 (06:12):
It's just sad if you can't get this one right.

SPEAKER_03 (06:14):
Okay.

SPEAKER_00 (06:14):
A investing in the stock of a single company is
typically safer than investingin a mutual fund that holds
shares of many companies inmultiple industries.
B investing in the stock of asingle company and investing in
a mutual fund that holds sharesof many companies in multiple
industries are typically equallysafe.

(06:35):
C, investing in a mutual fundthat holds shares of many
companies in multiple industriesis typically safer than
investing in the stock of asingle company.
Or D, I don't know.

SPEAKER_02 (06:46):
Okay, so C was holding an investment with many
securities in it rather thanholding one.

SPEAKER_00 (06:54):
Yes.
Okay.

SPEAKER_02 (06:55):
So in my judgment, holding many is safer than
holding one.

SPEAKER_00 (07:01):
So C would be your final answer?

SPEAKER_02 (07:02):
C is my final answer.

unknown (07:04):
Yes.

SPEAKER_02 (07:04):
Oh my god.

SPEAKER_00 (07:05):
Congratulations.

SPEAKER_02 (07:06):
That's three out of four, man.
75.
That's usually my usual average.

SPEAKER_00 (07:09):
So five.
This is about managing debt.

SPEAKER_03 (07:13):
Oh, okay.

SPEAKER_00 (07:14):
Okay, so you're gonna have to think back to when
you were in debt.
Exactly.
Not applicable now, but it was.
Jose owns, not owns, he doesn'town because he's in debt.
Jose owes$1,000 on a loan thathas an interest rate of 20% per
year, compounded annually.
If he makes no payments on thisloan at this interest rate, how

(07:37):
many years will it take for theamount he owes to double?
Come on, this is math.
A, more than 10 years.
B 5 to 10 years.
C fewer than five years.
Or the old D super dummy, yeah.
I do not have a 20%.

SPEAKER_02 (07:59):
Wouldn't it be five years?
Then it would take.

SPEAKER_00 (08:01):
Well, wait, but think about it for a minute.
It says compounded annually.

SPEAKER_02 (08:05):
Okay, then it would be C fewer than five years.

SPEAKER_03 (08:09):
Thank you for saving me.
I was close.
You were going to go to five toten.

SPEAKER_00 (08:13):
You were going to go five to ten.
I knew it.
And I'm going, no, no, no, Tom,Tom, think about it.
It's 20% added this year.
Compounded.
And then next year, it's 20%added to 1200.

SPEAKER_02 (08:24):
Which, by the way, I think compounding is one of the
most important concepts infinancial literacy that's not
top.

SPEAKER_00 (08:29):
It is, and it's one of the most dangerous when you
owe money.

SPEAKER_02 (08:32):
Well, yeah, on the other flip side, it's not good.
Sure.

SPEAKER_00 (08:35):
Yeah.
All right.
Are you ready for six?
Yeah.
You're doing well.

SPEAKER_02 (08:39):
Not really.

SPEAKER_00 (08:40):
You've only failed on one, and it was the one I
kind of I really was shocked youfailed, but that's okay.
Anyway, I thought you'd totallyget inflation.
I really did.
I I I don't know why I thoughtthat.

SPEAKER_03 (08:51):
As I said, I really enjoy this.

SPEAKER_00 (08:52):
Now this one may be, this could be, this one could be
problematic for you because it'sabout insurance, and that's not
your area of expertise.
So we're going to give you abreak on this one.
All right?

SPEAKER_02 (09:02):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (09:04):
Catherine is a single 25-year-old worker who is
in good health.
What type of insurance coverageis she most likely to need in
the near term?
A disability insurance.
B life insurance.
C.
Long-term care insurance, or D,I wasn't paying any attention.

SPEAKER_02 (09:25):
Well, I was paying attention.
Um so life insurance, thatdoesn't sound likely.
Long-term care insurance?
I don't know.
You're 25, probably not.
So I'll have to X those two outand go with disability
insurance.

SPEAKER_00 (09:39):
So you sure you don't want to say D?
Don't know.

SPEAKER_02 (09:41):
Well, I don't know, but I'll go.

unknown (09:44):
Okay.

SPEAKER_00 (09:45):
Congratulations.
You got the bell.
Only two more, and then you andthen you get a reprieve.
I am retiring at the end of all.
You get a reprieve to for a QA.
All right.
Seven.
Comprehending risk.
Come on, right up your alley.
Yeah.
Lottery A pays a prize of$200.
And the chance of winning is 5%.

(10:07):
So if you win You get$200, butyou have to have a$2.
Right.

unknown (10:14):
Right.

SPEAKER_00 (10:14):
So the max there is $200.
1 20 chance of$200.
Lottery B pays a prize of$90,000.
Yeah.
And the chance of winning is0.01.
Expected winnings are greater inwhich lottery?
Lottery A, A, B, Lottery B, C,La they are equal.

(10:39):
D, I haven't a clue.

SPEAKER_02 (10:41):
Well, I'm gonna go.
I I know I'm going out on a limbhere.
Please saw it off right afterI'm on it.
But um, always been my goal.

SPEAKER_00 (10:50):
And actually the trees have been asking for that
too.

SPEAKER_03 (10:53):
I'll go with lottery.
A Oh, thank God.

SPEAKER_00 (10:59):
You are doing so well.
And now we're down to our.
We're down to our finalquestion.
Can I bring somebody in for myfinal question?
You know that applause wasreally weak.
Hey, come on, audience, do abetter job.
We now have our final question.
All right.
This is this is much better.

(11:19):
Thank you.
Thank you very much.
All right, here we go.
Yeah.
This is evaluating sources ofinformation.
Which of the following pieces ofinvestment advice appears to be
inappropriate for the respectiveindividual?
And that means the person namedin the answer, Tom.
That is the respectiveindividual.

(11:39):
Okay.
The person mentioned in theanswer, okay.
Yep.
A, a stock index fund to a30-year-old worker saving for
retirement.

SPEAKER_02 (11:50):
Okay.

SPEAKER_00 (11:50):
Is that inappropriate or appropriate?
Don't answer.

SPEAKER_02 (11:53):
Okay.

SPEAKER_00 (11:53):
B, a stock fund that invests in small startup
businesses to a 75-year-oldretiree.
I hate it.

SPEAKER_02 (12:00):
They make 75 sound ancient better.

SPEAKER_00 (12:04):
C.
Well it is.
A bond fund to a 60-year-oldworker for some of her
retirement savings, or I have noidea what this question even
means.

SPEAKER_02 (12:14):
Which of these three is inappropriate?

SPEAKER_00 (12:15):
Which of the three is inappropriate?

SPEAKER_02 (12:20):
That's inappropriate.
So it's going to be B is in boyon that one.
Okay, good.

unknown (12:24):
Thank you.

SPEAKER_00 (12:24):
Ladies and gentlemen, our final tally.
Oh got seven answers correct.
Oh.
Which makes him smarter than afew people.

SPEAKER_03 (12:34):
Not many, but a few.

SPEAKER_00 (12:36):
Thank you.
Thank you all.
Thank you all for being a partof our game show.
We appreciate you oh so much.

SPEAKER_02 (12:42):
And there's two things that I would add to this,
the one because I think that arevery important, all joking
aside, when it comes toliteracy.
Compounding interest, because Ilooked this up.
Well, it was there.
It was just backward interest.

SPEAKER_01 (12:52):
Yeah, it wasn't very good.
You know, if you took, I lookedthis up.

SPEAKER_02 (12:55):
This is something everybody should know.
10,000 to start, 10% a year,which is I think hard to make.
In 40 years, you have 452,000.

SPEAKER_00 (13:06):
Mm-hmm.

SPEAKER_02 (13:06):
That's all dramatic.
People overlook that.
So if you had a you know longwork career, that's that's
pretty amazing.
The other one that I don't seeon here is you do kind of,
because they say, is it riskierto own one or many?
Um Yeah, we have.
But I still think the a betterquestion is what makes you more
over time?
We've talked about this, butpeople still don't believe you.

(13:28):
Is it in in I'll ask you, inorder, what makes more stocks,
real estate, or bonds?
Has made you, I should say.
What's what's put those inorder, the three investments
that have been.
Wait a minute, which which willor which has?
Which has.
We can't say will because wedon't know.

SPEAKER_00 (13:46):
Okay, because it would it would be stocks in the
past, but it might not be oneforward.

SPEAKER_02 (13:50):
And bonds, which put those in the correct order of
requests.
Stocks.
Stocks.

SPEAKER_00 (13:55):
Bonds and real estate are similar, but real
estate probably a little higher.

SPEAKER_02 (13:59):
No, bonds have made more.

SPEAKER_00 (14:00):
Really?
Darn it.

SPEAKER_02 (14:01):
Oh yeah, but you're right, it is pretty close.
Because real estate's made, Ithink, one percent over
inflation.

SPEAKER_00 (14:08):
About one percent over inflation, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (14:09):
So bonds have made about two percent over inflation
long term.

SPEAKER_00 (14:12):
So it's close.
Is that all bonds?
See, I really could get in theweeds on this one.

SPEAKER_02 (14:16):
No, that's uh that's just yeah, just bonds, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (14:18):
No, no, but which bonds?
Aggregate bonds, treasury bonds,corporate bonds, junk bonds?
We'll say ag.
We'll go with the ag.
You don't even know.
You don't know what the correctanswer is, do you?
See, therefore, I could havegotten that right.

SPEAKER_03 (14:33):
I'll be in trouble.
All right.
Uh shall we go questions?

SPEAKER_00 (14:37):
Well, I gotta check and make sure we uh let's check
our time.
Yeah, we're great for a coupleof questions.
Perfect.
So here are questions that weresent in at talkingrealmoney.com
on the ask a question buttonthere, and they were typed.
And uh Tom reads them, andsometimes he actually gets on
the horn with you, and we uh wewe record those questions and
play them during the podcast.
So there's a lot of ways to getin touch with us.

(14:59):
You can also speak yourquestions using the microphone
button in the lower right-handcorner at talkingrealmoney.com.
So please do that every now andagain.
Those go to the Friday QApodcast that I do every week,
except holidays, and uh latelywe've had some holidays, which
means pretty much.

SPEAKER_02 (15:14):
We have another one coming up Juneteenth, coming up
here soon.
Well, actually, that we havealready passed.
Hold on.

SPEAKER_00 (15:19):
By the time the show is on the I told you yesterday's
show was in July.

SPEAKER_02 (15:28):
Good Lord, this is still May or something, isn't
it?
We're getting ahead, remember?

SPEAKER_00 (15:32):
Okay.
Uh whatever.
Because Tom's on vacation?
It's up to you.
All right, we're should werestart.
I think we uh we have uh anotherone of those coming up probably
any second.
But it that's good because itallows questions to build up
because the questions over thesummer kind of lighten, they
dwindle a bit.
So get send those questions in.
Go to talkingrealmoney.com andhere's one of those that you

(15:54):
typed.

SPEAKER_02 (15:55):
Really good question from Chad in Delavan, Wisconsin.
Subject.
This time it's different.

SPEAKER_00 (16:03):
Yeah, it's not.
Okay, I I don't even need toknow the question.
Okay, next it's not.
Is it don't know?
Is it not?
No, it's no, it's an absolute,it is not different this time.
Well, let me read the question.
All right.
Hi, Tom.
I was doing my psychicanswering.

SPEAKER_02 (16:17):
The number of U.S.
publicly traded small cap stockshas decreased 50 to 66 percent
since the small value premiumwas introduced by Fama and
French 30 years ago.
I think it's been longer thanthat, but okay, we'll go we'll
go with your number.
The decrease is at leastpartially due to small companies
being held by venture capitaland private equity.

(16:39):
I've heard I've heard otherfinancial gurus on their
podcasts opine that the premiumto a small value tilt either no
longer exists or has beensignificantly lessened because
the small cap value companiesare now privately held.
What say you?
Okay.

SPEAKER_00 (16:56):
I've got some actual numbers here because I Yeah, and
and the fact is that there areum just in the U.S.
alone, just so you talk about areduction.
Well, how many large cap stocksare there in the U.S., Tom,
roughly?

SPEAKER_02 (17:10):
Well, let's start with how many stocks there are
total.
I think it's like is it like7,000?

SPEAKER_00 (17:15):
No, in the U.S.

SPEAKER_02 (17:16):
I thought that was totally.

SPEAKER_00 (17:17):
It's about 4,500.

SPEAKER_02 (17:19):
Total U.S.
total U.S.
stocks.
Okay.

SPEAKER_00 (17:21):
So about 700 are large.
Yep.
About eight, nine hundred aremids.

SPEAKER_02 (17:26):
So you're still left with a significant number.

SPEAKER_00 (17:28):
Um small caps are somewhere around 1800, 2,000.
Okay.
Microcaps a thousand.
Those are companies that aretiny but they're still publicly
traded.
There are st there are quite afew of them.
Yeah.
There are quite a few of them.
And remember, the small capbenchmark is the Russell 2000,

(17:48):
which, by the way, contains2,000 stocks.
Because it's the Russell 2000.
But okay, a few of those aremid-caps, but come on.

SPEAKER_02 (17:57):
What you're really asking is should I invest in the
state?
Is it different this time, yeah?
Or should I not?
Because the premium's dead.
So I would I went back, by theway, first of all, this is from
IFA.com.
99 years and four months ofdata.
U.S.
small cap value stocks, a 15%annualized return.
U.S.
core equity, 11.8.

(18:17):
So that's a pretty substantialcase.

SPEAKER_00 (18:19):
Core equity, though, includes small cap.

SPEAKER_02 (18:20):
Some small.
Yes.
Large is actually a little bitless than that.
But let's just go with the last27 years, 99 through April 2026.
U.S.
small cap value, 9.3% annualizedU.S.
large, 8.5.
So almost a 1% annualizeddifference, which over, as I
just said, compounding makes abig difference.

(18:42):
So, and by the way, in inaddition to that, I would still
argue that it's fairly intuitivethat small cap value stocks
should make more because you'retaking more risk.
You should you're gonna get paidfor taking that risk.
So, no, we're not throwing thebaby out with the bathwater.
Yes, we continue to own smallcap value and we overweight to
it.
And um it's not none of thischanges my belief.

(19:06):
I'll put it that way.

SPEAKER_00 (19:06):
By the way, the the the the small cap value tilt
factor was first elucidated.
It wasn't discovered by, but butthey they were the the the
people who wrote about it, wereuh Eugene Fama and Kenneth
French.
Fama's a Nobel Prize winner,French is a uh professor at

(19:28):
Dartmouth.
These are very smart people whodid a lot of research, and they
still, to this day, despite allthis hooplaw about private
equity, which is just uh it'sit's a distraction, the premium,
it doesn't have anything to dowith how many small cap value
stocks are out there.
The premium is simply acompensation for the level of

(19:48):
risk you're taking.
That's all it is, that's allthey'll tell you it is.
So you can take that risk with athousand stocks or five hundred
stocks or two thousand stocks,and it still exists, but for
long periods of time it hasn'texisted.
And then it returns.
And by the way, twenty five tofive years ago, that small value

(20:15):
premium did vanish.
It did.
So it came roaring backrecently.

SPEAKER_02 (20:20):
What you said twenty-five to five years ago.
I don't understand that.

SPEAKER_00 (20:24):
Well, that means that recently, within the past
five years, three well, actuallytwo or three years, I was just
broadening the scope a little.
In the past few years, smallvalue has roared back.
Yeah.
But it was underperforming forabout a 20-year period, and
everybody said, oh, small valuepremium, that's dead.

SPEAKER_02 (20:41):
27 years still ahead by almost a percent a year.

SPEAKER_00 (20:44):
So when it outperforms, it outperforms big.

SPEAKER_02 (20:48):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (20:49):
Or half.

SPEAKER_02 (20:50):
But what you said is I'm completely agreeing.
You're taking more risk.
You need to get paid to takethat risk.
Otherwise, people, you know,won't put their money there.
So um, and by the way, when didyou see when they actually start
to finish the research on this?
Wasn't that the 70s, I want tosay, or something?

SPEAKER_00 (21:07):
No.
I think that's the same.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,no, no.

SPEAKER_02 (21:10):
Well, because um David Booth released their U.S.
That was just that was indexing.

SPEAKER_00 (21:16):
No, that was indexing 74.

SPEAKER_02 (21:18):
That was David David Booth when he was with uh No,
no, I'm talking about the smallcap funded dimensional was 1981,
is when they started it.
So um when they published.
It's been a while, I'll put itthat way.
But no, our opinion remains thesame.

SPEAKER_00 (21:34):
Yeah, and and this, by the way, this came up about
30 years ago, this same spuriousargument uh when we had
acquisitions like crazy, whensmall companies were being
bought up left and right.
Everybody said, Well, we'rewe're we're running out of small
caps because they're all beingbought.
Well, they st apparently theystill exist because uh let's
see, the paper, the crosssection of expected returns, was

(21:59):
published.
In 1992, in the Journal ofFinance.
Okay.
So we're looking at Yeah.
Coming to the A.
And then they followed up withanother paper called Common Risk
Factors on the Returns of Stocksand Bonds.
That's when they introduced thethree-factor model, which was
market size and value.
That was in 1993.

(22:22):
And their their data, all theirU.S.
data goes back to 1926.
Yeah, that's when the researchThat's the period covered.
But uh no, this is all just thisis a bunch of people looking to
break through the financialmedia noise.
Yeah.
So if you say something a littleoutrageous, you get attention.

SPEAKER_02 (22:41):
Yeah.
Uh speaking of attention, shouldwe give Matt some attention?
He writes from Hyde Park, Utah.
He says, Tom Adon, I listened toa recent podcast episode of Risk
Parity Podcast that focused onbest portfolios for drawdown
with the highest safe withdrawalrate.
The number one portfolio was thegolden ratio portfolio.

(23:04):
Uh the Boglehead three fundportfolio, way down at the
bottom.
I've included the chart.
Love to hear you guys respond tothis as I know you don't use
gold, managed futures, andlong-term treasuries in your
portfolios.
I think that's a good thing.
It's golden something.

(23:28):
No, no, the name of theportfolio is the same.

SPEAKER_00 (23:29):
Oh, the golden butterfly.
Which sounds dirty to me forsome reason.
I'm not sure.
Let's just leave it there.
Don't bring the golden butterflyhome.
Anyway.
Oh my gosh, I just had uh nevermind.
I'm not even gonna say thevision that popped in.
I wouldn't.
This is open flies away.

(23:50):
Um the golden butterfly wouldnot have worked well prior to
gold having its big run-up thatit's gonna be.
Which is had lately.

SPEAKER_02 (23:58):
So also bugs are gonna say.

SPEAKER_00 (24:00):
The golden butterfly would have stunk to high heaven
if you owned it between 1980 and2000.

SPEAKER_02 (24:05):
Right.
Gold was a good idea.

SPEAKER_00 (24:06):
When gold was negative.
Yeah.
So these are all back-testedthings, and you know, this is
this is what data fiends do.
And the guy who creates this isby the way, is an engineer and
he's a data fiend.
He loves data.
And but the data can bemisleading.
It's the old adage, lies, damnedlies, and statistics.

(24:30):
Where's Disraeli when you needthem?
You can't you you can't judgewhat a portfolio might do based
on what it has done in the pastunless there is some scientific
basis for that.
And when it comes to adding goldto a portfolio or managed
futures to a portfolio, there'svery little peer-reviewed data

(24:53):
to support that idea.
So uh quit thinking so darnmuch.

SPEAKER_02 (25:02):
Well, I again, I think if you if you're doing
this on your own, you're gonna athree fund portfolio from the
Bogleheads, probably fine.
You're getting, you know, aglobal portfolio of stocks,
you're getting some bonds to putthe brakes on when things go
down.

SPEAKER_00 (25:18):
And I I looked at the list and my eyes glazed over
because I mean Paul Merriman'sright there in the back.

SPEAKER_03 (25:24):
Is that all that glowy?
Anyway.

SPEAKER_00 (25:29):
I read it and I went through and I and and I looked
at him and I went, you know, ifI had the time, I and I which I
don't, and I'm not gonna do,because I'm not a crazed data
cruncher, but if I had the time,I could probably find that at
various points, if you measuredit at various points in time,
those portfolio's positionsshifted dramatically from one to

(25:52):
another being the top performer.
So And they will.

SPEAKER_02 (25:57):
And but and don't, by the way, do not go home and
try the golden butterfly.
Uh it's just a bad idea.
I I you know somebody could gethurt.

SPEAKER_00 (26:05):
Well, you know, the other thing that came to mind,
and this is gonna be I'm notgonna say what it is, but the
other thing that came to mindwas was Vikings.
Did you watch that show?
Yeah, that's but that's the onethat's Do you remember the
butterfly thing?

SPEAKER_02 (26:19):
No, I don't remember that, so I don't want to.

SPEAKER_00 (26:22):
That was a horrible, horrible torture.
Oh, but it wasn't a goldenbutterfly.

SPEAKER_02 (26:27):
Yeah, okay.
That's true.
Speaking of flitting from flowerto flower.
Before we ask you, pollinating,I have a favor to ask all of
you.
All of you.
Yeah.
If I would like you all now togo to the certain website called
Amazon.com.
Never heard of it.
Yeah.
Uh oh, are this is this are youputting in a book plug for me?

(26:47):
Yeah, I am.
Uh really liked my book.

SPEAKER_00 (26:50):
Tom bought 15 of them.

SPEAKER_02 (26:52):
I've been giving them out to people.
They love them.
Um and then type in Civil Warnovels.

SPEAKER_04 (26:58):
Or Civil War novels.

SPEAKER_02 (27:01):
Your book.

unknown (27:02):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (27:02):
Number two on my list.
So then when it pops up, clickon it and buy one.
Let's keep Don high on therankings here.

SPEAKER_00 (27:11):
Here's what would help.
If you really like it, and onlyif you really like it, if you
don't like it, whatever.
Uh leave a review.
Those reviews really.

SPEAKER_02 (27:22):
Because you only have two right now, I think, or
something.
You have two like aprofessional.

SPEAKER_00 (27:24):
But the book's been the book's been out for a week?

unknown (27:30):
No.

SPEAKER_00 (27:31):
Yeah.
At the time of this recording,yes.
A little over a week when werecorded it.
When you hear this, it'll it'sbeen out about maybe a month.
About that.
Yeah, thank you, Tom.
That was a very nice book.

SPEAKER_02 (27:42):
The book is wonderful.
It's a great story.
It's right up there next to thebook that I think you should
compare it to, and that is abook called Killer Angels.
Went by a guy named Sherra.

SPEAKER_00 (27:53):
It was uh Was it Michael or Jeff?

SPEAKER_02 (27:55):
I think I want to say it was the son.
So I think that's Jeff.
Jeff, yeah.
So that's goes back 30 yearsago?
Long time.
So great book.
But Don's is equally good.
So go there.

SPEAKER_00 (28:06):
It's called The Line Uncrossed.
You didn't say the name.

SPEAKER_02 (28:08):
Oh, pardon me.
That would help, wouldn't it?

SPEAKER_00 (28:10):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 (28:10):
Uh anyway, the line uncrossed.

SPEAKER_00 (28:11):
Because they're all gonna buy like the killer angels
and go.
That Don change his name?

SPEAKER_02 (28:16):
That's not Don, is it Nom de Plume?
Uh so take advantage of that.
It's a great offer.

SPEAKER_00 (28:22):
And don't try the nom de plume at home either.

SPEAKER_03 (28:25):
You'll get hurt.
You're old.
Don't do it.

SPEAKER_00 (28:28):
You gotta be young to pull off the nom de plume.

SPEAKER_03 (28:31):
And the golden butterfly.

SPEAKER_00 (28:32):
The golden butterfly.

SPEAKER_03 (28:35):
Oh, I think we should have to be a lot of the
same.

SPEAKER_00 (28:36):
You know, actually, even if we were on the radio, we
could have we could have gottenaway with that.
Yeah.
Because we didn't say any badwords.
We didn't make this an This doesnot deserve an E, Apple.
Oh, by the way, when we got thatE for that one episode, which we
never figured out why, Applejust categorized it as explicit.
Uh, I think it's because we saythe name Tom Cock.
I'm honestly thinking that's it.

SPEAKER_02 (28:57):
Probably does.
But they pulled it.

SPEAKER_00 (29:00):
They went, oh, there's nothing explicit in this
silly money podcast.
No.
So would it be?
Ask questions attalkingrealmoney.com.
Uh if you want some help, maybeyou want to have a meeting with
one of our advisors at Appello.
Maybe you want to have a meetingwith Tom.
You know, and by the way, didyou know you could do it for
free?

SPEAKER_02 (29:18):
You could do it for free.
You know, we've been gettingmore meetings lately of uh
people, our regular listenerssaying, I really want you to
talk to my dad or mom.
Oh.
Been kind of fun.

SPEAKER_00 (29:30):
Yeah.
Oh, and are are they getting dadand mom in on the conversation?

SPEAKER_02 (29:34):
We have a call and we say here's what the we look
at the portfolio and here'sthings you should consider.
It's been it's been interesting,yeah.
So the what's the point of thething?
It's time to get rid of theinsurance agent.
No, we're not selling insuranceagents.

SPEAKER_00 (29:45):
Who's the brother-in-law?
No, it's time to get rid of theuh advisor who works for the
insurance company who's therelative.

SPEAKER_02 (29:52):
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (29:52):
Well, it's but it's Marge's nephew.

SPEAKER_02 (29:55):
He's been a great guy for 35 years, and we only
own six annuities.
So um, but any of those things,and we're happy to help anybody.
Because somebody else I just raninto uh outside of work and
they're like, Will you do willyou talk to me about this?

SPEAKER_03 (30:08):
I talked to everybody.

SPEAKER_00 (30:09):
So how do you do how do they do that though?
How do they sign up to meet withyou?

SPEAKER_02 (30:13):
Oh, I I think you can just go to
talkingrealmoney.com, click onmeet an advisor, type my name in
there.

SPEAKER_00 (30:19):
People do it all the time.
You wouldn't know because Idon't think you've ever visited
the site, but Yeah, I haveactually.
You did?
You went totalkingrealmoney.com.

SPEAKER_02 (30:26):
You don't remember why?
Oh, I know why, because when youchanged the pictures, I was
unhappy.
Remember, I wanted to go see theI don't like the new picture.
Oh wait, of you?
No.
Well, no, of you.
I don't care about your picture.
I care about my picture.
No, but the the picture of youis your it's your headshot,
dude.
I know.
I didn't No, okay.
I thought it was the one withyou and I standing there.
Oh, that's why Oh, that wasthere.

(30:47):
That was that was the picture wetook when we were uh with with
Paul.
I like ret I like pictures atleast 10 years and older.
You know that.

SPEAKER_00 (30:55):
So Oh, it was because it's too recent.

SPEAKER_02 (30:58):
Yeah, exactly.
Because it makes you look yourage.
Exactly, which I don't like.

SPEAKER_03 (31:03):
I read I admit all that fully.
Come on.
You know that.

SPEAKER_02 (31:06):
So anyway, that's what I'm saying.

SPEAKER_00 (31:07):
Yeah, I just don't care.
I truly don't care.
But the but but I get thedifference.
I mean, right now Tom is wearinga uh pressed uh starched pressed
shirt.
That's true.
With a with a blue-green tie.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah.
Properly tied in a perfectWindsor.
How about only half, though.
Half Windsor.
Yeah, I know.

(31:27):
Yeah.
And I, on the other hand, amwearing blue Amazon.
Well, no, I have five or sixblue teeth.
I believe you do.
Well, my my wife says that Ishould wear blue because of my
my blue eyes.
Oh.
There we go.
We gotta go now.
This is just degenerating.

(31:47):
Thanks for listening.
We appreciate you being there.
If if you want to torture yourfriends, tell them about the
program.
Make them listen too.
I'm Don.
That's Tom.
And some of the time here on thepodcast, we're talking real
money.

SPEAKER_06 (32:05):
The opinions and views expressed on this podcast
were current on the daterecorded.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts,and statements of financial
market trends that are based oncurrent market conditions
constitute our judgment and oursubjects change without notice,
including any forward-lookingestimates or statements which
are based on certainexpectations and assumptions.

SPEAKER_05 (32:18):
Although information and opinions given have been
obtained from or based onsources believed to be reliable,
no warranty or representation ismade as to their correctness,
completeness, or accuracy.

SPEAKER_06 (32:28):
Information presented on the podcast is not
personalized investment advicefrom Oppello Wealth.
The views and strategiesdescribed may not be suitable
for everyone.
This podcast does not identifyall the risks, direct or
indirect, or otherconsiderations which might be
material to you when enteringany financial transaction.
Past performance does notguarantee future results, and
profitable results cannot beguaranteed.
We hope you realize that theinformation provided on Talking
Real Money is for informational,educational, and hopefully

(32:50):
enjoyable purposes only.
The podcast is not trying to getyou to buy or sell any financial
products or securities.
Instead, the program is providedas a public service by Appello
Wealth, a fee-only registeredinvestment advisor.

SPEAKER_05 (33:01):
See Appello Wealth ADB Party 2A on our website for
information regarding AppellateFees and Services.

SPEAKER_06 (33:06):
Appello Capital, LLC, DBA Apello Wealth, is an
investment advisory firmregistered with the Securities
and Exchange Commission.
The firm only transacts businessin the states where it is
properly registered, or excludedor exempt from registration
requirements.
Registration with the SDC or anyState Securities Authority does
not imply a certain level ofskill or training.

(33:29):
Please visittalkingrealmoney.com for more
information and importantdisclosure related to
performance of any specificindex or fund quoted in this
podcast.
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