July 6, 2026 • 38 mins
Don and Tom take on the latest crypto hype cycle, arguing that Bitcoin remains speculation—not a reliable store of wealth—and that putting crypto inside retirement accounts is especially dangerous. They discuss a new self-directed IRA crypto platform, the risks of private equity and alternative assets in retirement plans, and why “get rich quickly” pitches should set off alarm bells.
Then they answer two listener questions. First, Mark from Ohio asks how to prepare a retirement portfolio for a likely market downturn and how withdrawals and rebalancing should work once retirement begins. Later, Doug from Utah asks whether market-linked CDs make sense compared with Treasuries and whether the “no downside” promise is worth the tradeoffs. Don and Tom explain why they dislike market-linked CDs, how bank brokers get paid to sell them, and why simpler fixed-income tools often make more sense.
They wrap up with a warning about growing bank-related scam tactics and a publishing scam Don has been seeing aimed at authors.
0:05 – Intro: one-star Bitcoin review and why crypto losses are hard to ignore
1:16 – Bitcoin’s drop, crypto volatility, and retirement-account crypto pitches
2:42 – Self-directed IRAs, IRA Financial, and the “get rich quick” problem
5:27 – Why crypto, private equity, and alternative assets can be dangerous in retirement plans
6:58 – Why most people bought Bitcoin: speculation, not currency utility
10:29 – Hot money shifts: crypto, gold, semiconductors, and chasing momentum
12:20 – Don’s bottom line on crypto as speculation vs. wealth storage
13:16 – Listener question from Mark: preparing for a market downturn before retirement
15:32 – Is an 80/20-ish portfolio too aggressive with retirement four years away?
17:13 – Bonds vs. cash/CDs: what fixed income should do near retirement
18:56 – Withdrawal strategy during a downturn and how rebalancing fits in
20:46 – Listener question from Doug: market-linked CDs vs. Treasuries
23:47 – Why Don and Tom dislike market-linked CDs
26:42 – The danger of taking investment advice from a bank salesperson
29:18 – Building Treasury and CD ladders through a brokerage instead
31:23 – Banks training tellers to spot scam victims before money is lost
34:04 – Don’s author scam warning: fake book clubs and fake promotional offers
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Episode Transcript
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SPEAKER_01 (00:05):
You're gonna do a really great financial future.
Tom and Don are talking realmoney.
SPEAKER_03 (00:11):
Okay, folks.
This is getting a little silly.
A one-star review.
I enjoy the show, but ourBitcoin takes are consistently
hard to listen to.
Well, I gotta tell you, I wouldimagine that Bitcoin investors
are having a really hard timewatching Bitcoin lately.
(00:34):
I I just don't understand howyou can watch it lose 50% of its
value.
Uh, that sounds like the 2008stock market, doesn't it?
And still be a proponent.
I I I'm uh color me confused.
And uh let's talk about thecolor of your money.
Is it uh is it shiny and nonexistent, or is it solid and uh
(00:58):
green and potentially lucrative?
We're gonna talk about Bitcoinand scams today on the program.
I'm Don McDonald.
That's Tom Cock.
This is well, talking realmoney.
Thanks for joining us.
We really appreciate it.
Yeah, um the when we recordedthis, Tom, a couple weeks ago,
Bitcoin had dropped to as low asrecently sixty thousand dollars
(01:26):
of Bitcoin.
Now, that sounds like a lot ofmoney until you look back at
what the price of Bitcoin hasdone over the past, well, year
or so.
Wasn't it just at$125,000 likelast fall?
Like less than a year?
SPEAKER_02 (01:45):
Yeah, it it has had a dramatic decline.
And while at the same time,those who still believe, I guess
still believe, we'll talk moreabout that in just a moment.
And those who'd like to sell yousome want to make it very easy
to have it in your retirementaccount so you can just get
access to those cryptocurrenciesthat really are a great
investment for the long haul.
SPEAKER_03 (02:07):
Yeah, and here's the thing.
If you bought it during the uhthe the excitement phase back in
uh late 2021, the fall of 2021,really, um, and you paid$60,000,
$64,000,$65,000 of Bitcoin,well, five years later, you are
barely at break-even.
(02:29):
Five years later, does is thatthe kind of investment you want
to put your money in where overa five-year period of time you
just broke even?
Or what if you bought it in 2025at$124,000 of Bitcoin?
SPEAKER_02 (02:43):
Yeah.
Troubling more, however, is thefact that people are still out
promoting this and they want tomake it easy for you to not only
invest, but invest with yourretirement savings, a company
called IRA Financial, which is aself-directed uh custodian,
which oh self-directed IRAsalways make me nervous because
(03:04):
they usually wait.
SPEAKER_03 (03:05):
The term self-directed used to mean that
you could buy anything youwanted in it, you but including
mutual funds and things likethat.
Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_02 (03:13):
But also get into private real estate deals.
SPEAKER_03 (03:15):
Now it's more dangerous stuff that is
associated with self-directed.
My my uh uh an IRA at Schwab isa self-directed IRA,
technically.
You just can't buy anything youwant.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_02 (03:28):
But but but typically over the longer haul,
that's been used, as I say, toget into real estate deals to do
stuff that's a little off thedusty path.
Yeah, I mean, and now it's evenworse.
This company that just mentionedIRA Financial, they're launching
a crypto platform that can tradea hundred to different tokens in
real time.
(03:48):
Now, does that sound like along-term plan for your
retirement?
And um, the the proprietor whosename I will not mention because
I don't even want to utter it onthis show, he says, This is how
you get rich.
You don't get rich by justsitting back and buying stocks.
SPEAKER_03 (04:08):
No, no, you don't get rich quickly.
Here's the difference.
He forgot a word.
He forgot a word.
You don't get rich quicklybuying stocks in aggregate.
You don't.
It's a slow, slow process.
Problem is, very few people, nomatter what they do, get rich
quickly.
(04:28):
That's the old adage that isthat has been used to rip you
off since the beginning of time.
It's your greed they're takingadvantage of.
And when it comes to gettingrich only a f quickly, only a
few can do that.
Getting rich slowly is somethingeverybody has access to.
SPEAKER_02 (04:47):
Exactly, because you can invest in global markets,
you can do it that verytax-efficient manner, and you
can do it with extremely lowfees.
But this all comes, by the way,when some politicians are
clearing the way for addingcrypto, private equity, real
estate into your workplace plan.
Here's the favorite quote thatuh from that article that you
sent me, Don, um, that I thinkshould be paid attention to
(05:10):
closely from a guy named EdSlott, who's uh helped people
with their IRAs et al.
for decades.
We I think we interviewed himback on the old sound investing.
Ed Slott says if you take yourmoney to a custodian like IRA
Financial, you're on your own.
Uh good luck.
I mean, because so many badthings could happen in so many
(05:31):
of these products.
Um whether it is crypto orwhether it is private equity or
private loans or debt or any ofthese things are highly risky.
They're, of course, Bitcoin'sliquid, I guess, because you can
sell it the next day.
The fees are generally higher.
It just everything is sort ofweighed against you, and I know
(05:52):
we're gonna get our haters aregonna write us and say, no, no,
no, no.
I got in in 2016, I made a lotof money.
God bless you.
SPEAKER_03 (06:01):
Uh I it was funny.
I w logged into my Schwabaccount just to watch it uh
because it recently went down.
Everything went down on Friday,the 5th of June.
It was a pretty bad day.
It was.
Uh I I and it it there was alittle thing on the screen that
says trade crypto for only0.75%.
SPEAKER_02 (06:18):
That's it.
You can get right in and starttrading away.
Pretty expensive.
Did you do that over the weekendthen since you had a bad week
with stock?
When Mark Cuban's getting out ofthe way, well, I was gonna oh
you stole my thunder because Iwas gonna say now, how excited
are people about Bitcoin?
Because the price, as it said,is around sixty thousand.
Strategy, the company that uhbeen so big on Bitcoin, they're
(06:42):
selling it, and Mark Cuban'sgiving up money.
SPEAKER_03 (06:45):
Mark sold a lot.
SPEAKER_02 (06:46):
Yeah, and if if Mark Cuban's giving up, well, I mean,
that's the real smart money,right?
I'm out then for sure.
SPEAKER_03 (06:52):
Here's the thing Bitcoin was uh a shiny object.
It was it had a story thatappealed to a lot of people, but
the main thing, and if you ifall you Bitcoin advocates are
honest with yourselves, the mainreason you bought Bitcoin wasn't
because you think, oh, I've gotthe new currency and I'm gonna
(07:13):
be the only one left in theworld who can spend money.
No, no, no.
You bought it to get rich, andyou bought it hoping to get rich
quickly.
And honest to goodness, we knowfor a fact that people in 2021
bought it for$60,000 of Bitcoin.
Lots of them.
Hundreds of thousands of thembought it at$60 plus thousand
(07:35):
dollars.
We know for a fact that hundredsof thousands of traders bought
Bitcoin in uh the fall of 2026for$120,000.
We know that because there weretrades that happened.
So how do you think all thosecrypto crypto buyers uh who were
convinced by your advocacy tobuy the darn stuff, how do you
(07:57):
think they feel at a 50% loss?
And how do you think they feelon your advice?
SPEAKER_02 (08:04):
Yeah, on on a lengthy uh period of time where
you haven't made anything.
Um, and so that's troubling.
But then then the guy at IRAFinancial, God, I I again I'm
not gonna say his name, but ifcrypto trading it at real time
isn't good enough, he says, howabout private equity?
Because that's where the realmoney's made.
I went and looked just to see,kind of just and looked around
(08:25):
at various websites wherereturns are kept track of.
Nobody really knows, of course,the actual return of private
equity because it's privateequity.
But as an asset class, kind ofit appears to be between 12 and
14 percent.
Now, every deal could be fardifferent, right?
There's people that go out ofbusiness, there's people that
become the next Microsoft, etcetera.
(08:46):
But the thing about that is thatis a fair return for the risk
you're taking.
Remember, you're giving upliquidity, you're there's
leverage involved, there's highfees, there's all kinds of
disadvantages.
So you should be getting a muchgreater return for all the risk
you're taking, right?
I mean, at the end of the day,that's the kind of thing you
need to pay attention to.
(09:07):
But this is troubling.
Uh, it's it's not just thatyou're right, Don, that people
are buying cryptocurrencies.
It's not that the people arestill promoting them, although
certain people are not going tobe able to do that.
SPEAKER_03 (09:16):
No, that's a problem to me.
SPEAKER_02 (09:18):
It's not as loud as it once was.
I mean, it's pretty quiet now.
Um, that's I struggle with allof that, but I it's a hundred
thousand times worse to me thatpeople want to make this easy
for you to put your retirementmoney into it.
Because just imagine, youmentioned the 50%.
Just imagine you retired andthen your crypto bet went down
(09:39):
by 50% just in time for you tostart needing the money to pay
the bills.
That is not a good idea.
That is not anything you reallywant to have in your portfolio
in my mind anyway, butespecially a retirement
portfolio.
SPEAKER_03 (09:52):
The good news is that most of those who are are
putting crypto in their IRAs oreven in their regular accounts
are not people on the brink ofretirement, thank goodness.
They're they're smart enough toknow.
In fact, we we would be totallyand utterly irresponsible if we
told people, hey, why don't youput a hundred percent of your
money in a few uh hot stocks inthe U.S.
(10:15):
Because those hot stocks could,could go to nothing.
And for anyone to say cryptocannot go, cannot, impossible to
go to nothing, is beingdisingenuous.
Of course it can.
I'm not saying it will, but itcertainly can go to zero.
And right now the attention isshifting.
(10:36):
Right now the attention hasshifted.
Gold has more momentum right nowthan does crypto.
Technology stocks way more.
The iShare's uh semiconductorETF, SOX, SOXX, is up about 75
(10:58):
percent this year, just in 2026.
Crazy.
So you got crypto way down, yougot semiconductors up.
It tells you where the the thehottest the hot trend chasers
are going.
Next stop, next stop, of course,is SpaceX and Anthropic and oh
(11:19):
and uh OpenAI and all the rest.
That's the the short attentionspans are hallmarks of younger
investors.
SPEAKER_02 (11:29):
Aaron Ross Powell Well, and they're hallmarks of
people that think they're buyingwhat's hot and often get burned,
right?
I mean, the track record of IPOsis poor.
The track record of things thathave been hot is poor.
And again, this is the kind ofthing that we advocate against
and have for gosh, you know,like 30 years not buying what's
(11:49):
everybody's excited about.
So that's exactly the reasonthat we've been trying to help
people understand the risky sideof things like SpaceX and
Anthropic, et cetera.
But back to the starting pointhere.
This is troubling that again,they're going to make it easier
for you to put in yourretirement account.
Under no circumstance would Ihave you or your kids, or I
(12:12):
guess in some case yourgrandkids, outdoing this in the
money that you're planning onusing to pay the bills in
retirement.
SPEAKER_03 (12:20):
And uh it really shouldn't be, I gotta tell you,
unless face the fact, cryptoguys and gals.
The fact crypto is purespeculation.
I'm okay if you want tospeculate with your money.
I am.
Just don't call it a solid storeof wealth because it isn't, it
(12:44):
can't be.
It cannot be a safe store ofwealth, and it's proven itself
to not be a safe store ofwealth.
Anything that can go down thatfar can go to zero.
And be honest about it.
Sure, say you love it, say it'sgot great potential.
I I am not opposed to you sayingall the nice things you want
(13:06):
about it, but please at least behonest with those getting
involved and tell them there isthe potential that they could
lose a lot, if not everything.
Now, got questions?
We will try to give you answers.
You can send your questions inso easily these days.
The easy it's so easy.
We don't have the phone numbersto deal with the show on
(13:27):
Saturday.
You just go totalkingrealmoney.com and you
click the ask a question button.
That's all that's all you needto do.
Then you can type it up, we'lluh ask it on the show, or Tom,
once in a while, me, but usuallyTom, because he likes
conversations, will give you acall.
SPEAKER_02 (13:45):
Hey, thanks, Don.
Let's go to the phones.
How about Zanesville, Ohio?
And Mark joins us on TalkingReal Money.
How are we doing, Mark?
SPEAKER_00 (13:54):
Good.
Thanks, Tom, for taking thiscall.
And uh I enjoy listening to youand Don every day.
I listen to you on the way infrom work, so that's very nice.
SPEAKER_02 (14:02):
Ah, that's very nice.
I will not tell him you saidthat, but uh certainly nice to
hear it myself.
So how can we help you?
SPEAKER_00 (14:09):
Well, I'm uh currently almost 61 years old
and planning on retiring at 65or at least having the option to
stop working at that point.
Based on every what whateverybody suggested, phasing
into that retirement, notstopping all at once.
Um so I have a couple concerns,I guess.
One, I wanted to see get youropinion on if you think my
(14:32):
portfolio is poised for I I'mexpecting probably a market
downturn correction of some sortin the next five years.
That's pretty likely, I think.
Um, and then two about thewithdrawal strategy.
So I guess that my questions aretwo parts.
SPEAKER_02 (14:46):
Let's take the first part first about the market
downturn, because yeah, youshould always it's been, I mean,
basically since 2022, right?
I mean, we had a few littlehiccups here and there, but
basically of any consequence.
And even there, it was kind ofdown and then turned and went
right back up.
So yeah, I think any reasonablemarket historian would say, yes,
we're going to have a downturn.
(15:06):
The question is going to be howbig is it going to be,
obviously?
How long is it going to last?
And what is it going to mean tomy portfolio?
So um, yeah, I mean, my answerto that particular question, we
can talk specifics in your case,but everybody's portfolio should
be built with that in mindbecause it's gonna happen.
I don't know when any more thanyou do, but uh, but you should
(15:28):
be ready at all times.
SPEAKER_00 (15:30):
Yeah.
So I'm I'm currently just in mysituation, I'm currently well,
I'm on a glide path.
I am with a uh fiduciary advisorcompany, but I'm I'm on a glide
path right now.
I'm supposed to be at 76.24stock to bond ratio, but because
of the market has been up, it'sactually more like eight eighty
(15:51):
one nineteen.
Um so they haven't rebalancedthat yet.
SPEAKER_02 (15:55):
They do it quarterly, so um, yeah, that's a
that's fairly aggressive, Ithink.
If you're are you gonna is thismoney you're gonna be starting
to take out in four or fiveyears?
SPEAKER_00 (16:04):
Yes, yes.
That's what I'm thinking.
I might be a little bit.
I mean, my when I did the riskquiz a few years ago, I scored
in the low 80s.
Uh-huh.
But that was probably four yearsago.
And, you know, as it getsgetting closer, I'm thinking
maybe I need to maybe dial thatback a little bit.
SPEAKER_02 (16:18):
It wouldn't even be the amount of risk you can kind
of take on an emotional level.
To me, it would be about theactual taking money out in four
years if the market was downsubstantially.
Because in a portfolio, 80% instocks, 20% in bonds, you need
to face up to the fact that,yeah, your portfolio could be
down 30, 35%.
You really wouldn't want to bepulling from the portfolio when
(16:40):
it's that far.
They wouldn't want to be sellingstuff that's down like that.
You really want to have enoughin bonds where you can take it
from that.
Those won't have moved around asmuch and give the stocks a time
to recover.
So, I mean, it's sort of twoparts, three parts, I guess.
Actually, yeah, the risk quiz,kind of getting to know yourself
around the emotions.
Number two, about when you needthe money.
But then the third one would bearound the plan.
Because if you've run the plan,you've run it a lot of times
(17:02):
with a fiduciary advisor, you'regonna have a pretty clear
understanding of just how wellthings are going to work for
you, especially what could be alengthy retirement if you if you
sort of wind things down at 65.
SPEAKER_00 (17:13):
Yes.
Yes, I uh well, you you talkedabout the uh bond portion.
That that was one of theconcerns I had.
So right now, you know, I have20, if I get it dialed back to
where it's supposed to be, 20,24 percent of my fixed income is
in bonds.
Should it do I need any otherthat's the only fixed income I
have.
It's all divided up intoshort-term US bonds and and also
(17:38):
international bonds.
It's 50-50, I guess, between USand international bonds.
Um, but do I need any type ofother cash or CDs or anything
besides bonds?
So when I start withdrawing thatat that time, yeah, that's a
great question.
SPEAKER_02 (17:53):
You know, I mean, here's you get people that have
the bucket strategy, right?
That say, well, certain amountsare really being cash type of
instruments because bonds, as wealso learned in 2022, can go
down from time to time.
You know, the aggregate bondlost like 10%, a little more
than 10% in 2022.
So it can happen.
I would say within a few yearsof the actual date you're gonna
(18:14):
pull in the money, then yeah,you'd probably want to be in
some very short-term CDs, moneymarket, something like that that
has really no variation.
So that you can pull from thatsort of bucket, if you will, to
pay the bills.
You could also, however, stillbe in the bonds and then at the
beginning of each year, whenyou're gonna draw, take a
certain amount, put that in themoney market, have that to draw
(18:34):
on, you know, for the actualcash during the year.
So you could do it that way.
I really have no problem with,you know, sort of short and
intermediate term bonds to be uhthe fixed income part of the
portfolio, but I but I'd I'd I'dwant I might want to look at
sort of my cash holdings as I'mactually starting to pull money
out of the uh out of theportfolio at that point.
SPEAKER_00 (18:54):
Okay, yeah, that makes sense.
Okay.
Um, so say, and my last my otherthought was so say I have
started to withdraw from theportfolio and the market's down
say 25%, I take the money fromthe bond portion instead.
At that point, you know, theyonce a quarter, the advisor that
(19:16):
firm that I'm looking that I'mwith now looks at the balance
and rebalances every quarter.
So if you rebalance when themarket's down 20 25%, um, after
I've taken the seat the moneyout of the fixed income, is that
going to throw off?
Don't you need to wait for thatto recover?
SPEAKER_02 (19:33):
Or yeah, technically the rebalance would be selling
bonds and buying stocks.
You know, this is something thatuh that we've done over the
years.
It's no fun because it feelsvery counterintuitive and stocks
are going down, they're nevercoming back, et cetera, et
cetera.
But it it's worked out becauseyou know, you've taken money
from something that's doingwell, and then you put it into
(19:54):
something that has, you know,gone down, and then that
generally comes back.
So technically, yes, that wouldbe the case.
But in in your circumstance, ifyou're drawing on the portfolio,
generally you just take the drawfrom the bond because those
aren't going to be down,hopefully, like stocks would be,
shouldn't be, and then let thestock part recover to the place
where after that's gone up, therebalance would take place
(20:16):
between those two assets and payyourself from that.
But generally, yeah, I don't Iwouldn't be in favor of drawing
money out and rebalancingbecause that could deplete your
fixed income in a rather rapidfashion.
SPEAKER_00 (20:26):
Yeah, yeah, okay.
Yeah, that that was one thing Iwas didn't really understand how
that was supposed to work.
SPEAKER_02 (20:32):
So I think you're thinking pretty good on all this
stuff.
And wow, I really appreciate youbeing on the program and and a
regular listener, and we hopewe'll get to chat with you
again.
SPEAKER_00 (20:41):
Well, thank you very much for your advice.
SPEAKER_02 (20:43):
Thanks, Mark.
Take care.
SPEAKER_03 (20:44):
So please inundate us with questions at
talkingrealmoney.com.
You can also speak them, andI'll answer those on the Friday
QA podcast.
But right now, Tom is in a treekilling kind of mood.
SPEAKER_02 (20:58):
Yeah, a big time.
Let's hack them down.
Uh, from Draper, Utah, Dougwrites, I purchased CDs from my
bank at Wells Fargo when Ididn't know what to do with a
chunk of money.
I hate the phantom tax and didnot know there was an option to
buy a CD that pays outquarterly.
I always thought I had to waituntil the CD matured.
Then my bank broker suggestedmarket linked CDs.
(21:20):
So I put a million dollars intotwo ML CDs.
Now, market linked CD is onethat has tied to an index, stock
index of some kind.
The idea here is you're makingpart of the market return and it
never goes below the principal,right?
Uh he says$500,000 based on SPXand$500,000 based on SPW.
(21:42):
They were four year CDs.
First two years are good.
One MLCD based on SPX has grownat 13% rate per year, but the
other grew at 5.9.
The Phantom Income Tax haspushed me into the nasty N I I
T.
I think that's the capital gainsurcharge.
Mm-hmm.
Which adds three point eightpercent to your capital gains.
(22:03):
Made him ineligible to do theRoth IRA.
Says I have traditionals, soI've done the backdoor
conversion on new investments.
It's not very clean.
For the MLCD in SPW, there's notenough acronyms here.
Uh the 5.9 APY is only a littlebetter than a five or seven year
Treasury note, which would havegiven me 4.5% in 2004, and the
(22:26):
Treasury note income is statetax-free.
And the 5.9 on the MLCD is onlybecause the stock market had two
great years so far.
He says my wife loves the ideaof these because they're
guaranteed.
Never lose money, and they'rebacked by the FDIC.
A five or seven-year Treasurynote locked in at 4.5% seems
(22:47):
better than an MLCD because itpays every six months with no
phantom tax and not tied to thestock market having two big
years.
The money I would receive wouldprobably be less than an annuity
payout, but I keep all the moneyand it's state tax-free.
Then he says at 4.2%, I wouldhave an annual income of$42,000
(23:08):
guaranteed on a$1 million in afive-year treasury note in
retirement, no state income tax,and it satisfies my wife's need
for safety.
Says he has$3 million in otherinvestments, with a majority of
that in ETFs and target datefunds in 2050.
So this seems diversified bygoing with the Treasury notes.
Thoughts?
He says, sorry to make Tom killtrees with my questions.
SPEAKER_03 (23:30):
Well.
SPEAKER_02 (23:30):
It's a lot there.
So MLCD versus regular CDs or nopart of the virtual.
SPEAKER_03 (23:35):
Market link CDs are just another gimmick.
unknown (23:38):
Thanks.
SPEAKER_03 (23:39):
Just another means by which to try to sell you
something that makes somebody atthe bank some money for
something.
If you think you're going tomake more money long term in a
market link CD, think again.
They are not in the business ofpaying you more.
They're in the business oftrying to pay you less.
Because if they pay you less,they make more.
(24:02):
Market length CDs do not giveyou the dividends of the stock
market, which by the way can be2-3% of the total annual return.
And that's the safer part of thereturn.
SPEAKER_02 (24:11):
Well, no, more than 2-3% of the total return, 2-3%
of the investment.
SPEAKER_03 (24:16):
Yeah, of the investment of the annual return
of the investment, 2-3% returntotal of the total.
Total return.
2-3 percent, yeah.
Or 20 to 30 percent of theaverage annual return we've
experienced.
SPEAKER_02 (24:27):
Yeah, right.
SPEAKER_03 (24:28):
Bigger than that.
Um and the other the theremember, they're market-linked.
So they they follow what theindex does, but they don't give
you what the index gets even interms of appreciation.
They only give you a percentageof that.
There's a cap rate of some kind.
There's a cap of some sort.
And then what remember, stocksdon't always go up.
(24:48):
We say this over and over andover again.
What if, and this has happened,we have a five-year period.
We actually had a 10-year periodwith the S P 500.
That's one of the indexesLinkedIn here.
It is.
Yeah.
We had a 10-year period whereinvestors made negative returns
in the stock market for 10years.
(25:08):
So if you had those CDs for 10years in the 2000s, your annual
your annual return on thosewould have been right at 0% per
year.
So you would have made nothing.
So there's the that's yourdownside, making nothing while
inflation is eating up yourprincipal or the spending power
of your principal.
Uh and and I you you nailed it.
Buy the treasuries.
SPEAKER_02 (25:29):
Well, okay, going back, here's the thing.
I wouldn't buy a product likethis.
You use the right word, it'sgimmicky.
Whatever your risk is, youthat's the part you have in
stocks.
That's invested properlyglobally, low cost, et cetera.
Then the part that you want tohave the cushion is invested, as
you said, could be treasuries,could be a total bond, something
that doesn't have the volatilityand has more stability than
(25:51):
stocks, but you don't combinethem.
It's no different than any otherinvestment.
Combining these things, I guess,other than a target date fund,
which clearly points out they'regonna have this much in stocks,
this much in bonds, is okay.
But in this case, it's agimmick.
It's limited to how much thepercentage they're gonna give
you.
And I forgot about the dividendpart.
You get you eliminate thatentirely, which has been a
(26:14):
pretty decent part of returnsfor a long period of time.
So no, this is I I I I think Iagree with your wife here.
I think that was her.
Set aside the money that youwant for safe, sure.
Treasury, fine.
Uh, you could you could have atreasury fund if you didn't want
to own individual treasuries, etcetera.
And then the other part that youwant to have growth in, that
goes in stocks.
(26:34):
But stocks, not in a combined.
That's what I hate about marketlink CDs.
They're they try to be they tryto give you the best of both
worlds.
This is nothing new.
Everybody says this, right?
Going to make the return to themarket with no risk of loss.
That's a gimmick.
SPEAKER_03 (26:51):
Yeah, and here's the other thing.
It's very interesting.
When you walk into a bank, thisis the most dangerous thing you
can do with your money thesedays, I think, is to trust that
your bank is looking after yourbest interests.
Yeah.
Because what they did, I'mwilling to bet.
I I and I'm not a bettingperson, but I in this case I
would be I would bet money thatyou went into the bank to talk
(27:13):
to a teller about a CD and theysaid, Oh, why don't you talk to
Jim over here?
Uh Jim will tell you about somealternatives that might make you
more money.
Jim is the broker in the bank.
SPEAKER_02 (27:24):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_03 (27:24):
Jim is the commission salesperson for the
bank.
Because these whereas if you putit in a CD, the bank is just
going to make the differencebetween what they pay you and
what somebody else pays themwhen they lend out the money.
It's a lot skinnier.
(27:45):
And that sales commission can beright around 5%.
So there's an incentive for thatperson to sell you this because
if they sell you a CD, theydon't make a penny, the guy
sitting in the bank.
They don't make a pennypersonally.
They get they and the bank splita 5% commission, though, if they
can sell you one of these.
And they don't have to disclosethat.
They don't tell you a darnthing.
(28:06):
It's it may be buried in somepaperwork somewhere, but they're
not going to say it out loud.
You do not ever, ever want tolet your bank teller direct you
to somebody in the bank who'sgoing to show you better
investments because 99 times outof a hundred, and by the way,
this number is backed up byresearch by Market Watch.
99 plus times out of a hundred,you're going to get sold
(28:30):
something.
SPEAKER_02 (28:31):
Yeah, and we've discussed this as well.
I'm also down on credit unionswhen it comes to investing
because they haven't cleaned itup either, even though they're
owned by the members.
There's no incentive.
Yeah, it just drives me crazy.
But what the people owned them,they should vote out a broker in
the lobby and make somebody elsea fiduciary advisor in there
instead.
SPEAKER_03 (28:50):
I mean, come on.
You are naive if you think thatmember-owned organizations are
nonprofits.
Think about all the nonprofithospitals in America that
overcharge people, that donethem to bankruptcy, that that
rip them off.
I mean, come on.
Being a nonprofit doesn't meannon-greedy.
SPEAKER_02 (29:09):
That's true.
I wouldn't go either one, let'sput it that way, for my
investments.
SPEAKER_03 (29:14):
And here's the great thing if you have an account at
Fidelity or Schwab, you can buythose treasuries.
You could build a ladderedportfolio of treasuries, you
could build a laddered portfolioof what I would be willing to
bet are higher yielding CDs thanWells Fargo is going to give
you.
It's funny, I just bought withsome money.
(29:35):
I just bought uh added somemoney to my CD ladder, and I
just bought a Wells Fargo CDyielding 4.1%.
But I went to Wells Fargo'swebsite, cannot find a CD
anywhere near that.
SPEAKER_02 (29:47):
So this was through the brokerage.
SPEAKER_03 (29:49):
This was through the brokerage.
Yeah.
And how long is the term?
Uh I think it was afive-year-old I laddered out.
SPEAKER_02 (29:57):
Nothing wrong with getting four percent a year for
five years.
Yeah.
I I have a ladder out to fiveyears.
So um congratulations.
SPEAKER_03 (30:05):
Yeah, and you know, the treasuries are they are ad
advantageous from a state taxstandpoint, but I don't have a
state tax.
I'm in Florida.
You're in Washington.
You don't have a state taxeither.
So that's the story.
Although wait, I want to givebanks some kudos.
Oh, please.
Some kudos.
Um lately, and I have been uhthe subject of these attacks
(30:27):
myself, where somebody from yourbank calls you to tell you
somebody has used your account,they've broken into your
account, they've stolen money,there have been some charges
that you didn't uh uh that youyou weren't aware of, something
like that.
And the whole goal is to get youto go to your bank.
It's a sting.
(30:47):
You're gonna go to the bank andyou're gonna help them trap
somebody at the bank who uh hasbeen stealing money.
So you're gonna go and you'regonna take$9,000 and you're
gonna transfer it to anotheraccount that the bank has set up
for you.
Okay, it's that simple.
You don't even have to take themoney out anymore.
You just have to transfer itfrom this account number to that
account number.
And that account number is, ofcourse, a special account number
(31:10):
at the bank, and they're gonnareturn the money to you as soon
as they catch this person.
But please don't tell the tellerthat we're on the phone talking
to you about it.
Don't tell them.
Because if you tell them, you'lltip them off.
Well, it turns out that uh banksactually feel badly when this
happens.
They don't have any liability ifyou do this, but they feel
(31:32):
badly.
And Chase is actually trainingits tellers to recognize these
scams.
Uh to recognize that you may bebeing taken advantage of,
particularly those who are likeus elderly.
Sorry, Tommy.
Ouch.
I'm sorry, I know.
I said it.
Uh in a matter of fact, therewas one case that was mentioned
(31:53):
in this article, um, I believeit was in the Wall Street
Journal.
No, New York Times.
New York Times, um Tara Siegel.
And the teller, the woman camein and said, I need to move
$9,000 from this account to thisaccount.
And the teller said, Hmm.
She looked up the account towhich the money was going to be
moved.
(32:13):
And it wasn't the same as thewoman, and she said, Well, whose
account is that?
She goes, I it's just an accountthat another account that's been
set up.
And and uh the woman goes, Thissounds like it might be a scam.
Uh we have these a lot, and uh,I don't think you should do
this.
And she goes, No, I'm talking toMark at your bank right now.
(32:35):
She goes, You've got him on thephone right now?
Uh-huh.
She goes, Yeah.
This is a scam?
And she said, Yeah, and Mark'stelling her it's not.
And she goes, Should I hang upon him?
And the teller goes, Yes, hangup on him right now.
So kudos to Chase for doingthis.
They've they've actually startedtraining programs with uh
(32:55):
psychologists involved who aretrying to t teach tellers what
to recognize when someone comesto the window and wants to make
a large transaction that's outof character for that customer.
So I hope we see more of thisbecause this fraud is becoming
endemic.
It's just it's become a per pera permanent part of our society,
(33:18):
and it's huge, and it's sadbecause they're targeting people
who generally can't afford tolose that kind of money.
SPEAKER_02 (33:26):
Well, it's that's a significant amount of money.
Here's the thing I'm an unlikelytarget because I don't know
where my bank is anymore.
So I wouldn't even know how toget there if they called and
said you'd get to your IP.
SPEAKER_03 (33:37):
Actually, they give you directions to the nearest
one.
No, they're very helpful, Tom.
SPEAKER_02 (33:43):
Yeah, I'm sure they are.
SPEAKER_03 (33:44):
And they're the they're the nicest people.
They're so nice, they're sothoughtful, they're so caring,
they're so kind.
They're trying to save me frombeing ripped off.
Oh, and there's another one.
Oh, I I'm gonna mention this.
Yeah, what the heck.
Um, I got this one in the mailor email yesterday.
You know, I have a book, right?
Yes.
Popular book.
(34:04):
I have gotten a ton of theserecently from people saying they
recently discovered my book andwere deeply moved by what feels
like the emotional heart of LeviAnderson's story.
And then they say, while thenovel is set against the
backdrop of the American CivilWar, what resonated most with me
was its exploration of enduranceand the lasting impact of
(34:24):
suffering, etc., etc.
They're doing all this, all thegiving me all these platitudes
like buttering me up.
And then they go, at BostonReading Room, we are always
looking for books that inspiremeaningful discussion.
We would love the opportunity tofeature it in an upcoming
discussion and introduce it toour engaged readers.
It's from Rebecca Campbell atBoston Reading Room, and um I
(34:49):
looked it up.
No such thing.
You'd think if you had a BostonReading Room that was reading
books and promoting books, youwould have a website, you'd be
on Facebook, you'd be onInstagram, you'd be somewhere.
It does not exist anywhere.
SPEAKER_02 (35:03):
Wow.
SPEAKER_03 (35:03):
So what are they trying to get?
Just the book?
Me, money from me to feature thebook, to help promote the book.
So if you send us$2,000, we'lltake your credit card right
here.
We're gonna promote it to all ofour readers.
I see.
Uh this publ the publishersguild has sent out a warning to
all of its members.
These are happening like crazy.
Anybody who has a new book, theygo to Amazon, AI reads the book
(35:28):
description, then it creates AIcreates the letter, sends the
thing out, and then uh somebodyin a call center somewhere rips
you off.
SPEAKER_02 (35:40):
That's that's elaborate but believable.
I'll put it that way.
SPEAKER_03 (35:44):
That's the world we live in.
It's so messy.
You gotta be so skeptical and socareful.
And you know, I it's good.
You got us.
If you really want a s a trulycynical second opinion, get in
touch with me.
I'm all over it.
I'm all over cynicism.
Go to Talking Real Money.
(36:05):
Yeah, I am the no, I am thenational uh uh administrator,
leader, king of the cynics ofAmerica.
Uh go to talking real money.com,send those questions in.
SPEAKER_02 (36:17):
Chancellor.
Chancellor of Cynicism.
Chancellor! It just has a nicering to it.
SPEAKER_03 (36:21):
Got a bad no, it doesn't.
It has a terrible ring.
No one will ever be Chancelloragain after 1932.
Here was it, 8, 2, 32, yeah.
SPEAKER_02 (36:31):
Yeah, 32, 33.
SPEAKER_03 (36:32):
Yeah, damn.
SPEAKER_02 (36:33):
Okay.
Yeah, fair enough.
Fair enough.
SPEAKER_03 (36:35):
Oh, I guess Germany still has a chancellor, don't
they?
SPEAKER_02 (36:38):
I don't know, but you just wrecked their future.
SPEAKER_03 (36:40):
Just ruined their job.
Yeah, I think they do.
Anyway, thanks for being here.
Please tell a friend or 10 anduh send in your questions.
And remember that we are herefor you almost every single day,
except weekends and holidays,talking real money.
SPEAKER_01 (36:55):
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Opinions, estimates, forecasts,and statements of financial
market trends that are based oncurrent market conditions
constitute our judgment and oursubjects change without notice,
including any forward-lookingestimates or statements which
are based on certainexpectations and assumptions.
Although information andopinions given have been
obtained from or based onsources believed to be reliable,
no warranty or representation ismade as to their correctness,
(37:16):
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Information presented on thepodcast is not personalized
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The views and strategiesdescribed may not be suitable
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This podcast does not identifyall the risks, direct or
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(37:38):
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podcast.
The lawyers get richer.
You're gonna do a really great financial future.
Tom and Don are talking realmoney.
SPEAKER_03 (00:11):
Okay, folks.
This is getting a little silly.
A one-star review.
I enjoy the show, but ourBitcoin takes are consistently
hard to listen to.
Well, I gotta tell you, I wouldimagine that Bitcoin investors
are having a really hard timewatching Bitcoin lately.
(00:34):
I I just don't understand howyou can watch it lose 50% of its
value.
Uh, that sounds like the 2008stock market, doesn't it?
And still be a proponent.
I I I'm uh color me confused.
And uh let's talk about thecolor of your money.
Is it uh is it shiny and nonexistent, or is it solid and uh
(00:58):
green and potentially lucrative?
We're gonna talk about Bitcoinand scams today on the program.
I'm Don McDonald.
That's Tom Cock.
This is well, talking realmoney.
Thanks for joining us.
We really appreciate it.
Yeah, um the when we recordedthis, Tom, a couple weeks ago,
Bitcoin had dropped to as low asrecently sixty thousand dollars
(01:26):
of Bitcoin.
Now, that sounds like a lot ofmoney until you look back at
what the price of Bitcoin hasdone over the past, well, year
or so.
Wasn't it just at$125,000 likelast fall?
Like less than a year?
SPEAKER_02 (01:45):
Yeah, it it has had a dramatic decline.
And while at the same time,those who still believe, I guess
still believe, we'll talk moreabout that in just a moment.
And those who'd like to sell yousome want to make it very easy
to have it in your retirementaccount so you can just get
access to those cryptocurrenciesthat really are a great
investment for the long haul.
SPEAKER_03 (02:07):
Yeah, and here's the thing.
If you bought it during the uhthe the excitement phase back in
uh late 2021, the fall of 2021,really, um, and you paid$60,000,
$64,000,$65,000 of Bitcoin,well, five years later, you are
barely at break-even.
(02:29):
Five years later, does is thatthe kind of investment you want
to put your money in where overa five-year period of time you
just broke even?
Or what if you bought it in 2025at$124,000 of Bitcoin?
SPEAKER_02 (02:43):
Yeah.
Troubling more, however, is thefact that people are still out
promoting this and they want tomake it easy for you to not only
invest, but invest with yourretirement savings, a company
called IRA Financial, which is aself-directed uh custodian,
which oh self-directed IRAsalways make me nervous because
(03:04):
they usually wait.
SPEAKER_03 (03:05):
The term self-directed used to mean that
you could buy anything youwanted in it, you but including
mutual funds and things likethat.
Trevor Burrus, Jr.
SPEAKER_02 (03:13):
But also get into private real estate deals.
SPEAKER_03 (03:15):
Now it's more dangerous stuff that is
associated with self-directed.
My my uh uh an IRA at Schwab isa self-directed IRA,
technically.
You just can't buy anything youwant.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_02 (03:28):
But but but typically over the longer haul,
that's been used, as I say, toget into real estate deals to do
stuff that's a little off thedusty path.
Yeah, I mean, and now it's evenworse.
This company that just mentionedIRA Financial, they're launching
a crypto platform that can tradea hundred to different tokens in
real time.
(03:48):
Now, does that sound like along-term plan for your
retirement?
And um, the the proprietor whosename I will not mention because
I don't even want to utter it onthis show, he says, This is how
you get rich.
You don't get rich by justsitting back and buying stocks.
SPEAKER_03 (04:08):
No, no, you don't get rich quickly.
Here's the difference.
He forgot a word.
He forgot a word.
You don't get rich quicklybuying stocks in aggregate.
You don't.
It's a slow, slow process.
Problem is, very few people, nomatter what they do, get rich
quickly.
(04:28):
That's the old adage that isthat has been used to rip you
off since the beginning of time.
It's your greed they're takingadvantage of.
And when it comes to gettingrich only a f quickly, only a
few can do that.
Getting rich slowly is somethingeverybody has access to.
SPEAKER_02 (04:47):
Exactly, because you can invest in global markets,
you can do it that verytax-efficient manner, and you
can do it with extremely lowfees.
But this all comes, by the way,when some politicians are
clearing the way for addingcrypto, private equity, real
estate into your workplace plan.
Here's the favorite quote thatuh from that article that you
sent me, Don, um, that I thinkshould be paid attention to
(05:10):
closely from a guy named EdSlott, who's uh helped people
with their IRAs et al.
for decades.
We I think we interviewed himback on the old sound investing.
Ed Slott says if you take yourmoney to a custodian like IRA
Financial, you're on your own.
Uh good luck.
I mean, because so many badthings could happen in so many
(05:31):
of these products.
Um whether it is crypto orwhether it is private equity or
private loans or debt or any ofthese things are highly risky.
They're, of course, Bitcoin'sliquid, I guess, because you can
sell it the next day.
The fees are generally higher.
It just everything is sort ofweighed against you, and I know
(05:52):
we're gonna get our haters aregonna write us and say, no, no,
no, no.
I got in in 2016, I made a lotof money.
God bless you.
SPEAKER_03 (06:01):
Uh I it was funny.
I w logged into my Schwabaccount just to watch it uh
because it recently went down.
Everything went down on Friday,the 5th of June.
It was a pretty bad day.
It was.
Uh I I and it it there was alittle thing on the screen that
says trade crypto for only0.75%.
SPEAKER_02 (06:18):
That's it.
You can get right in and starttrading away.
Pretty expensive.
Did you do that over the weekendthen since you had a bad week
with stock?
When Mark Cuban's getting out ofthe way, well, I was gonna oh
you stole my thunder because Iwas gonna say now, how excited
are people about Bitcoin?
Because the price, as it said,is around sixty thousand.
Strategy, the company that uhbeen so big on Bitcoin, they're
(06:42):
selling it, and Mark Cuban'sgiving up money.
SPEAKER_03 (06:45):
Mark sold a lot.
SPEAKER_02 (06:46):
Yeah, and if if Mark Cuban's giving up, well, I mean,
that's the real smart money,right?
I'm out then for sure.
SPEAKER_03 (06:52):
Here's the thing Bitcoin was uh a shiny object.
It was it had a story thatappealed to a lot of people, but
the main thing, and if you ifall you Bitcoin advocates are
honest with yourselves, the mainreason you bought Bitcoin wasn't
because you think, oh, I've gotthe new currency and I'm gonna
(07:13):
be the only one left in theworld who can spend money.
No, no, no.
You bought it to get rich, andyou bought it hoping to get rich
quickly.
And honest to goodness, we knowfor a fact that people in 2021
bought it for$60,000 of Bitcoin.
Lots of them.
Hundreds of thousands of thembought it at$60 plus thousand
(07:35):
dollars.
We know for a fact that hundredsof thousands of traders bought
Bitcoin in uh the fall of 2026for$120,000.
We know that because there weretrades that happened.
So how do you think all thosecrypto crypto buyers uh who were
convinced by your advocacy tobuy the darn stuff, how do you
(07:57):
think they feel at a 50% loss?
And how do you think they feelon your advice?
SPEAKER_02 (08:04):
Yeah, on on a lengthy uh period of time where
you haven't made anything.
Um, and so that's troubling.
But then then the guy at IRAFinancial, God, I I again I'm
not gonna say his name, but ifcrypto trading it at real time
isn't good enough, he says, howabout private equity?
Because that's where the realmoney's made.
I went and looked just to see,kind of just and looked around
(08:25):
at various websites wherereturns are kept track of.
Nobody really knows, of course,the actual return of private
equity because it's privateequity.
But as an asset class, kind ofit appears to be between 12 and
14 percent.
Now, every deal could be fardifferent, right?
There's people that go out ofbusiness, there's people that
become the next Microsoft, etcetera.
(08:46):
But the thing about that is thatis a fair return for the risk
you're taking.
Remember, you're giving upliquidity, you're there's
leverage involved, there's highfees, there's all kinds of
disadvantages.
So you should be getting a muchgreater return for all the risk
you're taking, right?
I mean, at the end of the day,that's the kind of thing you
need to pay attention to.
(09:07):
But this is troubling.
Uh, it's it's not just thatyou're right, Don, that people
are buying cryptocurrencies.
It's not that the people arestill promoting them, although
certain people are not going tobe able to do that.
SPEAKER_03 (09:16):
No, that's a problem to me.
SPEAKER_02 (09:18):
It's not as loud as it once was.
I mean, it's pretty quiet now.
Um, that's I struggle with allof that, but I it's a hundred
thousand times worse to me thatpeople want to make this easy
for you to put your retirementmoney into it.
Because just imagine, youmentioned the 50%.
Just imagine you retired andthen your crypto bet went down
(09:39):
by 50% just in time for you tostart needing the money to pay
the bills.
That is not a good idea.
That is not anything you reallywant to have in your portfolio
in my mind anyway, butespecially a retirement
portfolio.
SPEAKER_03 (09:52):
The good news is that most of those who are are
putting crypto in their IRAs oreven in their regular accounts
are not people on the brink ofretirement, thank goodness.
They're they're smart enough toknow.
In fact, we we would be totallyand utterly irresponsible if we
told people, hey, why don't youput a hundred percent of your
money in a few uh hot stocks inthe U.S.
(10:15):
Because those hot stocks could,could go to nothing.
And for anyone to say cryptocannot go, cannot, impossible to
go to nothing, is beingdisingenuous.
Of course it can.
I'm not saying it will, but itcertainly can go to zero.
And right now the attention isshifting.
(10:36):
Right now the attention hasshifted.
Gold has more momentum right nowthan does crypto.
Technology stocks way more.
The iShare's uh semiconductorETF, SOX, SOXX, is up about 75
(10:58):
percent this year, just in 2026.
Crazy.
So you got crypto way down, yougot semiconductors up.
It tells you where the the thehottest the hot trend chasers
are going.
Next stop, next stop, of course,is SpaceX and Anthropic and oh
(11:19):
and uh OpenAI and all the rest.
That's the the short attentionspans are hallmarks of younger
investors.
SPEAKER_02 (11:29):
Aaron Ross Powell Well, and they're hallmarks of
people that think they're buyingwhat's hot and often get burned,
right?
I mean, the track record of IPOsis poor.
The track record of things thathave been hot is poor.
And again, this is the kind ofthing that we advocate against
and have for gosh, you know,like 30 years not buying what's
(11:49):
everybody's excited about.
So that's exactly the reasonthat we've been trying to help
people understand the risky sideof things like SpaceX and
Anthropic, et cetera.
But back to the starting pointhere.
This is troubling that again,they're going to make it easier
for you to put in yourretirement account.
Under no circumstance would Ihave you or your kids, or I
(12:12):
guess in some case yourgrandkids, outdoing this in the
money that you're planning onusing to pay the bills in
retirement.
SPEAKER_03 (12:20):
And uh it really shouldn't be, I gotta tell you,
unless face the fact, cryptoguys and gals.
The fact crypto is purespeculation.
I'm okay if you want tospeculate with your money.
I am.
Just don't call it a solid storeof wealth because it isn't, it
(12:44):
can't be.
It cannot be a safe store ofwealth, and it's proven itself
to not be a safe store ofwealth.
Anything that can go down thatfar can go to zero.
And be honest about it.
Sure, say you love it, say it'sgot great potential.
I I am not opposed to you sayingall the nice things you want
(13:06):
about it, but please at least behonest with those getting
involved and tell them there isthe potential that they could
lose a lot, if not everything.
Now, got questions?
We will try to give you answers.
You can send your questions inso easily these days.
The easy it's so easy.
We don't have the phone numbersto deal with the show on
(13:27):
Saturday.
You just go totalkingrealmoney.com and you
click the ask a question button.
That's all that's all you needto do.
Then you can type it up, we'lluh ask it on the show, or Tom,
once in a while, me, but usuallyTom, because he likes
conversations, will give you acall.
SPEAKER_02 (13:45):
Hey, thanks, Don.
Let's go to the phones.
How about Zanesville, Ohio?
And Mark joins us on TalkingReal Money.
How are we doing, Mark?
SPEAKER_00 (13:54):
Good.
Thanks, Tom, for taking thiscall.
And uh I enjoy listening to youand Don every day.
I listen to you on the way infrom work, so that's very nice.
SPEAKER_02 (14:02):
Ah, that's very nice.
I will not tell him you saidthat, but uh certainly nice to
hear it myself.
So how can we help you?
SPEAKER_00 (14:09):
Well, I'm uh currently almost 61 years old
and planning on retiring at 65or at least having the option to
stop working at that point.
Based on every what whateverybody suggested, phasing
into that retirement, notstopping all at once.
Um so I have a couple concerns,I guess.
One, I wanted to see get youropinion on if you think my
(14:32):
portfolio is poised for I I'mexpecting probably a market
downturn correction of some sortin the next five years.
That's pretty likely, I think.
Um, and then two about thewithdrawal strategy.
So I guess that my questions aretwo parts.
SPEAKER_02 (14:46):
Let's take the first part first about the market
downturn, because yeah, youshould always it's been, I mean,
basically since 2022, right?
I mean, we had a few littlehiccups here and there, but
basically of any consequence.
And even there, it was kind ofdown and then turned and went
right back up.
So yeah, I think any reasonablemarket historian would say, yes,
we're going to have a downturn.
(15:06):
The question is going to be howbig is it going to be,
obviously?
How long is it going to last?
And what is it going to mean tomy portfolio?
So um, yeah, I mean, my answerto that particular question, we
can talk specifics in your case,but everybody's portfolio should
be built with that in mindbecause it's gonna happen.
I don't know when any more thanyou do, but uh, but you should
(15:28):
be ready at all times.
SPEAKER_00 (15:30):
Yeah.
So I'm I'm currently just in mysituation, I'm currently well,
I'm on a glide path.
I am with a uh fiduciary advisorcompany, but I'm I'm on a glide
path right now.
I'm supposed to be at 76.24stock to bond ratio, but because
of the market has been up, it'sactually more like eight eighty
(15:51):
one nineteen.
Um so they haven't rebalancedthat yet.
SPEAKER_02 (15:55):
They do it quarterly, so um, yeah, that's a
that's fairly aggressive, Ithink.
If you're are you gonna is thismoney you're gonna be starting
to take out in four or fiveyears?
SPEAKER_00 (16:04):
Yes, yes.
That's what I'm thinking.
I might be a little bit.
I mean, my when I did the riskquiz a few years ago, I scored
in the low 80s.
Uh-huh.
But that was probably four yearsago.
And, you know, as it getsgetting closer, I'm thinking
maybe I need to maybe dial thatback a little bit.
SPEAKER_02 (16:18):
It wouldn't even be the amount of risk you can kind
of take on an emotional level.
To me, it would be about theactual taking money out in four
years if the market was downsubstantially.
Because in a portfolio, 80% instocks, 20% in bonds, you need
to face up to the fact that,yeah, your portfolio could be
down 30, 35%.
You really wouldn't want to bepulling from the portfolio when
(16:40):
it's that far.
They wouldn't want to be sellingstuff that's down like that.
You really want to have enoughin bonds where you can take it
from that.
Those won't have moved around asmuch and give the stocks a time
to recover.
So, I mean, it's sort of twoparts, three parts, I guess.
Actually, yeah, the risk quiz,kind of getting to know yourself
around the emotions.
Number two, about when you needthe money.
But then the third one would bearound the plan.
Because if you've run the plan,you've run it a lot of times
(17:02):
with a fiduciary advisor, you'regonna have a pretty clear
understanding of just how wellthings are going to work for
you, especially what could be alengthy retirement if you if you
sort of wind things down at 65.
SPEAKER_00 (17:13):
Yes.
Yes, I uh well, you you talkedabout the uh bond portion.
That that was one of theconcerns I had.
So right now, you know, I have20, if I get it dialed back to
where it's supposed to be, 20,24 percent of my fixed income is
in bonds.
Should it do I need any otherthat's the only fixed income I
have.
It's all divided up intoshort-term US bonds and and also
(17:38):
international bonds.
It's 50-50, I guess, between USand international bonds.
Um, but do I need any type ofother cash or CDs or anything
besides bonds?
So when I start withdrawing thatat that time, yeah, that's a
great question.
SPEAKER_02 (17:53):
You know, I mean, here's you get people that have
the bucket strategy, right?
That say, well, certain amountsare really being cash type of
instruments because bonds, as wealso learned in 2022, can go
down from time to time.
You know, the aggregate bondlost like 10%, a little more
than 10% in 2022.
So it can happen.
I would say within a few yearsof the actual date you're gonna
(18:14):
pull in the money, then yeah,you'd probably want to be in
some very short-term CDs, moneymarket, something like that that
has really no variation.
So that you can pull from thatsort of bucket, if you will, to
pay the bills.
You could also, however, stillbe in the bonds and then at the
beginning of each year, whenyou're gonna draw, take a
certain amount, put that in themoney market, have that to draw
(18:34):
on, you know, for the actualcash during the year.
So you could do it that way.
I really have no problem with,you know, sort of short and
intermediate term bonds to be uhthe fixed income part of the
portfolio, but I but I'd I'd I'dwant I might want to look at
sort of my cash holdings as I'mactually starting to pull money
out of the uh out of theportfolio at that point.
SPEAKER_00 (18:54):
Okay, yeah, that makes sense.
Okay.
Um, so say, and my last my otherthought was so say I have
started to withdraw from theportfolio and the market's down
say 25%, I take the money fromthe bond portion instead.
At that point, you know, theyonce a quarter, the advisor that
(19:16):
firm that I'm looking that I'mwith now looks at the balance
and rebalances every quarter.
So if you rebalance when themarket's down 20 25%, um, after
I've taken the seat the moneyout of the fixed income, is that
going to throw off?
Don't you need to wait for thatto recover?
SPEAKER_02 (19:33):
Or yeah, technically the rebalance would be selling
bonds and buying stocks.
You know, this is something thatuh that we've done over the
years.
It's no fun because it feelsvery counterintuitive and stocks
are going down, they're nevercoming back, et cetera, et
cetera.
But it it's worked out becauseyou know, you've taken money
from something that's doingwell, and then you put it into
(19:54):
something that has, you know,gone down, and then that
generally comes back.
So technically, yes, that wouldbe the case.
But in in your circumstance, ifyou're drawing on the portfolio,
generally you just take the drawfrom the bond because those
aren't going to be down,hopefully, like stocks would be,
shouldn't be, and then let thestock part recover to the place
where after that's gone up, therebalance would take place
(20:16):
between those two assets and payyourself from that.
But generally, yeah, I don't Iwouldn't be in favor of drawing
money out and rebalancingbecause that could deplete your
fixed income in a rather rapidfashion.
SPEAKER_00 (20:26):
Yeah, yeah, okay.
Yeah, that that was one thing Iwas didn't really understand how
that was supposed to work.
SPEAKER_02 (20:32):
So I think you're thinking pretty good on all this
stuff.
And wow, I really appreciate youbeing on the program and and a
regular listener, and we hopewe'll get to chat with you
again.
SPEAKER_00 (20:41):
Well, thank you very much for your advice.
SPEAKER_02 (20:43):
Thanks, Mark.
Take care.
SPEAKER_03 (20:44):
So please inundate us with questions at
talkingrealmoney.com.
You can also speak them, andI'll answer those on the Friday
QA podcast.
But right now, Tom is in a treekilling kind of mood.
SPEAKER_02 (20:58):
Yeah, a big time.
Let's hack them down.
Uh, from Draper, Utah, Dougwrites, I purchased CDs from my
bank at Wells Fargo when Ididn't know what to do with a
chunk of money.
I hate the phantom tax and didnot know there was an option to
buy a CD that pays outquarterly.
I always thought I had to waituntil the CD matured.
Then my bank broker suggestedmarket linked CDs.
(21:20):
So I put a million dollars intotwo ML CDs.
Now, market linked CD is onethat has tied to an index, stock
index of some kind.
The idea here is you're makingpart of the market return and it
never goes below the principal,right?
Uh he says$500,000 based on SPXand$500,000 based on SPW.
(21:42):
They were four year CDs.
First two years are good.
One MLCD based on SPX has grownat 13% rate per year, but the
other grew at 5.9.
The Phantom Income Tax haspushed me into the nasty N I I
T.
I think that's the capital gainsurcharge.
Mm-hmm.
Which adds three point eightpercent to your capital gains.
(22:03):
Made him ineligible to do theRoth IRA.
Says I have traditionals, soI've done the backdoor
conversion on new investments.
It's not very clean.
For the MLCD in SPW, there's notenough acronyms here.
Uh the 5.9 APY is only a littlebetter than a five or seven year
Treasury note, which would havegiven me 4.5% in 2004, and the
(22:26):
Treasury note income is statetax-free.
And the 5.9 on the MLCD is onlybecause the stock market had two
great years so far.
He says my wife loves the ideaof these because they're
guaranteed.
Never lose money, and they'rebacked by the FDIC.
A five or seven-year Treasurynote locked in at 4.5% seems
(22:47):
better than an MLCD because itpays every six months with no
phantom tax and not tied to thestock market having two big
years.
The money I would receive wouldprobably be less than an annuity
payout, but I keep all the moneyand it's state tax-free.
Then he says at 4.2%, I wouldhave an annual income of$42,000
(23:08):
guaranteed on a$1 million in afive-year treasury note in
retirement, no state income tax,and it satisfies my wife's need
for safety.
Says he has$3 million in otherinvestments, with a majority of
that in ETFs and target datefunds in 2050.
So this seems diversified bygoing with the Treasury notes.
Thoughts?
He says, sorry to make Tom killtrees with my questions.
SPEAKER_03 (23:30):
Well.
SPEAKER_02 (23:30):
It's a lot there.
So MLCD versus regular CDs or nopart of the virtual.
SPEAKER_03 (23:35):
Market link CDs are just another gimmick.
unknown (23:38):
Thanks.
SPEAKER_03 (23:39):
Just another means by which to try to sell you
something that makes somebody atthe bank some money for
something.
If you think you're going tomake more money long term in a
market link CD, think again.
They are not in the business ofpaying you more.
They're in the business oftrying to pay you less.
Because if they pay you less,they make more.
(24:02):
Market length CDs do not giveyou the dividends of the stock
market, which by the way can be2-3% of the total annual return.
And that's the safer part of thereturn.
SPEAKER_02 (24:11):
Well, no, more than 2-3% of the total return, 2-3%
of the investment.
SPEAKER_03 (24:16):
Yeah, of the investment of the annual return
of the investment, 2-3% returntotal of the total.
Total return.
2-3 percent, yeah.
Or 20 to 30 percent of theaverage annual return we've
experienced.
SPEAKER_02 (24:27):
Yeah, right.
SPEAKER_03 (24:28):
Bigger than that.
Um and the other the theremember, they're market-linked.
So they they follow what theindex does, but they don't give
you what the index gets even interms of appreciation.
They only give you a percentageof that.
There's a cap rate of some kind.
There's a cap of some sort.
And then what remember, stocksdon't always go up.
(24:48):
We say this over and over andover again.
What if, and this has happened,we have a five-year period.
We actually had a 10-year periodwith the S P 500.
That's one of the indexesLinkedIn here.
It is.
Yeah.
We had a 10-year period whereinvestors made negative returns
in the stock market for 10years.
(25:08):
So if you had those CDs for 10years in the 2000s, your annual
your annual return on thosewould have been right at 0% per
year.
So you would have made nothing.
So there's the that's yourdownside, making nothing while
inflation is eating up yourprincipal or the spending power
of your principal.
Uh and and I you you nailed it.
Buy the treasuries.
SPEAKER_02 (25:29):
Well, okay, going back, here's the thing.
I wouldn't buy a product likethis.
You use the right word, it'sgimmicky.
Whatever your risk is, youthat's the part you have in
stocks.
That's invested properlyglobally, low cost, et cetera.
Then the part that you want tohave the cushion is invested, as
you said, could be treasuries,could be a total bond, something
that doesn't have the volatilityand has more stability than
(25:51):
stocks, but you don't combinethem.
It's no different than any otherinvestment.
Combining these things, I guess,other than a target date fund,
which clearly points out they'regonna have this much in stocks,
this much in bonds, is okay.
But in this case, it's agimmick.
It's limited to how much thepercentage they're gonna give
you.
And I forgot about the dividendpart.
You get you eliminate thatentirely, which has been a
(26:14):
pretty decent part of returnsfor a long period of time.
So no, this is I I I I think Iagree with your wife here.
I think that was her.
Set aside the money that youwant for safe, sure.
Treasury, fine.
Uh, you could you could have atreasury fund if you didn't want
to own individual treasuries, etcetera.
And then the other part that youwant to have growth in, that
goes in stocks.
(26:34):
But stocks, not in a combined.
That's what I hate about marketlink CDs.
They're they try to be they tryto give you the best of both
worlds.
This is nothing new.
Everybody says this, right?
Going to make the return to themarket with no risk of loss.
That's a gimmick.
SPEAKER_03 (26:51):
Yeah, and here's the other thing.
It's very interesting.
When you walk into a bank, thisis the most dangerous thing you
can do with your money thesedays, I think, is to trust that
your bank is looking after yourbest interests.
Yeah.
Because what they did, I'mwilling to bet.
I I and I'm not a bettingperson, but I in this case I
would be I would bet money thatyou went into the bank to talk
(27:13):
to a teller about a CD and theysaid, Oh, why don't you talk to
Jim over here?
Uh Jim will tell you about somealternatives that might make you
more money.
Jim is the broker in the bank.
SPEAKER_02 (27:24):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_03 (27:24):
Jim is the commission salesperson for the
bank.
Because these whereas if you putit in a CD, the bank is just
going to make the differencebetween what they pay you and
what somebody else pays themwhen they lend out the money.
It's a lot skinnier.
(27:45):
And that sales commission can beright around 5%.
So there's an incentive for thatperson to sell you this because
if they sell you a CD, theydon't make a penny, the guy
sitting in the bank.
They don't make a pennypersonally.
They get they and the bank splita 5% commission, though, if they
can sell you one of these.
And they don't have to disclosethat.
They don't tell you a darnthing.
(28:06):
It's it may be buried in somepaperwork somewhere, but they're
not going to say it out loud.
You do not ever, ever want tolet your bank teller direct you
to somebody in the bank who'sgoing to show you better
investments because 99 times outof a hundred, and by the way,
this number is backed up byresearch by Market Watch.
99 plus times out of a hundred,you're going to get sold
(28:30):
something.
SPEAKER_02 (28:31):
Yeah, and we've discussed this as well.
I'm also down on credit unionswhen it comes to investing
because they haven't cleaned itup either, even though they're
owned by the members.
There's no incentive.
Yeah, it just drives me crazy.
But what the people owned them,they should vote out a broker in
the lobby and make somebody elsea fiduciary advisor in there
instead.
SPEAKER_03 (28:50):
I mean, come on.
You are naive if you think thatmember-owned organizations are
nonprofits.
Think about all the nonprofithospitals in America that
overcharge people, that donethem to bankruptcy, that that
rip them off.
I mean, come on.
Being a nonprofit doesn't meannon-greedy.
SPEAKER_02 (29:09):
That's true.
I wouldn't go either one, let'sput it that way, for my
investments.
SPEAKER_03 (29:14):
And here's the great thing if you have an account at
Fidelity or Schwab, you can buythose treasuries.
You could build a ladderedportfolio of treasuries, you
could build a laddered portfolioof what I would be willing to
bet are higher yielding CDs thanWells Fargo is going to give
you.
It's funny, I just bought withsome money.
(29:35):
I just bought uh added somemoney to my CD ladder, and I
just bought a Wells Fargo CDyielding 4.1%.
But I went to Wells Fargo'swebsite, cannot find a CD
anywhere near that.
SPEAKER_02 (29:47):
So this was through the brokerage.
SPEAKER_03 (29:49):
This was through the brokerage.
Yeah.
And how long is the term?
Uh I think it was afive-year-old I laddered out.
SPEAKER_02 (29:57):
Nothing wrong with getting four percent a year for
five years.
Yeah.
I I have a ladder out to fiveyears.
So um congratulations.
SPEAKER_03 (30:05):
Yeah, and you know, the treasuries are they are ad
advantageous from a state taxstandpoint, but I don't have a
state tax.
I'm in Florida.
You're in Washington.
You don't have a state taxeither.
So that's the story.
Although wait, I want to givebanks some kudos.
Oh, please.
Some kudos.
Um lately, and I have been uhthe subject of these attacks
(30:27):
myself, where somebody from yourbank calls you to tell you
somebody has used your account,they've broken into your
account, they've stolen money,there have been some charges
that you didn't uh uh that youyou weren't aware of, something
like that.
And the whole goal is to get youto go to your bank.
It's a sting.
(30:47):
You're gonna go to the bank andyou're gonna help them trap
somebody at the bank who uh hasbeen stealing money.
So you're gonna go and you'regonna take$9,000 and you're
gonna transfer it to anotheraccount that the bank has set up
for you.
Okay, it's that simple.
You don't even have to take themoney out anymore.
You just have to transfer itfrom this account number to that
account number.
And that account number is, ofcourse, a special account number
(31:10):
at the bank, and they're gonnareturn the money to you as soon
as they catch this person.
But please don't tell the tellerthat we're on the phone talking
to you about it.
Don't tell them.
Because if you tell them, you'lltip them off.
Well, it turns out that uh banksactually feel badly when this
happens.
They don't have any liability ifyou do this, but they feel
(31:32):
badly.
And Chase is actually trainingits tellers to recognize these
scams.
Uh to recognize that you may bebeing taken advantage of,
particularly those who are likeus elderly.
Sorry, Tommy.
Ouch.
I'm sorry, I know.
I said it.
Uh in a matter of fact, therewas one case that was mentioned
(31:53):
in this article, um, I believeit was in the Wall Street
Journal.
No, New York Times.
New York Times, um Tara Siegel.
And the teller, the woman camein and said, I need to move
$9,000 from this account to thisaccount.
And the teller said, Hmm.
She looked up the account towhich the money was going to be
moved.
(32:13):
And it wasn't the same as thewoman, and she said, Well, whose
account is that?
She goes, I it's just an accountthat another account that's been
set up.
And and uh the woman goes, Thissounds like it might be a scam.
Uh we have these a lot, and uh,I don't think you should do
this.
And she goes, No, I'm talking toMark at your bank right now.
(32:35):
She goes, You've got him on thephone right now?
Uh-huh.
She goes, Yeah.
This is a scam?
And she said, Yeah, and Mark'stelling her it's not.
And she goes, Should I hang upon him?
And the teller goes, Yes, hangup on him right now.
So kudos to Chase for doingthis.
They've they've actually startedtraining programs with uh
(32:55):
psychologists involved who aretrying to t teach tellers what
to recognize when someone comesto the window and wants to make
a large transaction that's outof character for that customer.
So I hope we see more of thisbecause this fraud is becoming
endemic.
It's just it's become a per pera permanent part of our society,
(33:18):
and it's huge, and it's sadbecause they're targeting people
who generally can't afford tolose that kind of money.
SPEAKER_02 (33:26):
Well, it's that's a significant amount of money.
Here's the thing I'm an unlikelytarget because I don't know
where my bank is anymore.
So I wouldn't even know how toget there if they called and
said you'd get to your IP.
SPEAKER_03 (33:37):
Actually, they give you directions to the nearest
one.
No, they're very helpful, Tom.
SPEAKER_02 (33:43):
Yeah, I'm sure they are.
SPEAKER_03 (33:44):
And they're the they're the nicest people.
They're so nice, they're sothoughtful, they're so caring,
they're so kind.
They're trying to save me frombeing ripped off.
Oh, and there's another one.
Oh, I I'm gonna mention this.
Yeah, what the heck.
Um, I got this one in the mailor email yesterday.
You know, I have a book, right?
Yes.
Popular book.
(34:04):
I have gotten a ton of theserecently from people saying they
recently discovered my book andwere deeply moved by what feels
like the emotional heart of LeviAnderson's story.
And then they say, while thenovel is set against the
backdrop of the American CivilWar, what resonated most with me
was its exploration of enduranceand the lasting impact of
(34:24):
suffering, etc., etc.
They're doing all this, all thegiving me all these platitudes
like buttering me up.
And then they go, at BostonReading Room, we are always
looking for books that inspiremeaningful discussion.
We would love the opportunity tofeature it in an upcoming
discussion and introduce it toour engaged readers.
It's from Rebecca Campbell atBoston Reading Room, and um I
(34:49):
looked it up.
No such thing.
You'd think if you had a BostonReading Room that was reading
books and promoting books, youwould have a website, you'd be
on Facebook, you'd be onInstagram, you'd be somewhere.
It does not exist anywhere.
SPEAKER_02 (35:03):
Wow.
SPEAKER_03 (35:03):
So what are they trying to get?
Just the book?
Me, money from me to feature thebook, to help promote the book.
So if you send us$2,000, we'lltake your credit card right
here.
We're gonna promote it to all ofour readers.
I see.
Uh this publ the publishersguild has sent out a warning to
all of its members.
These are happening like crazy.
Anybody who has a new book, theygo to Amazon, AI reads the book
(35:28):
description, then it creates AIcreates the letter, sends the
thing out, and then uh somebodyin a call center somewhere rips
you off.
SPEAKER_02 (35:40):
That's that's elaborate but believable.
I'll put it that way.
SPEAKER_03 (35:44):
That's the world we live in.
It's so messy.
You gotta be so skeptical and socareful.
And you know, I it's good.
You got us.
If you really want a s a trulycynical second opinion, get in
touch with me.
I'm all over it.
I'm all over cynicism.
Go to Talking Real Money.
(36:05):
Yeah, I am the no, I am thenational uh uh administrator,
leader, king of the cynics ofAmerica.
Uh go to talking real money.com,send those questions in.
SPEAKER_02 (36:17):
Chancellor.
Chancellor of Cynicism.
Chancellor! It just has a nicering to it.
SPEAKER_03 (36:21):
Got a bad no, it doesn't.
It has a terrible ring.
No one will ever be Chancelloragain after 1932.
Here was it, 8, 2, 32, yeah.
SPEAKER_02 (36:31):
Yeah, 32, 33.
SPEAKER_03 (36:32):
Yeah, damn.
SPEAKER_02 (36:33):
Okay.
Yeah, fair enough.
Fair enough.
SPEAKER_03 (36:35):
Oh, I guess Germany still has a chancellor, don't
they?
SPEAKER_02 (36:38):
I don't know, but you just wrecked their future.
SPEAKER_03 (36:40):
Just ruined their job.
Yeah, I think they do.
Anyway, thanks for being here.
Please tell a friend or 10 anduh send in your questions.
And remember that we are herefor you almost every single day,
except weekends and holidays,talking real money.
SPEAKER_01 (36:55):
The opinions and views expressed on this podcast
were current on the daterecorded.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts,and statements of financial
market trends that are based oncurrent market conditions
constitute our judgment and oursubjects change without notice,
including any forward-lookingestimates or statements which
are based on certainexpectations and assumptions.
Although information andopinions given have been
obtained from or based onsources believed to be reliable,
no warranty or representation ismade as to their correctness,
(37:16):
completeness, or accuracy.
Information presented on thepodcast is not personalized
investment advice from ApolloWell.
The views and strategiesdescribed may not be suitable
for everyone.
This podcast does not identifyall the risks, direct or
indirect, or otherconsiderations which might be
material to you when enteringany financial transaction.
We hope you realize that theinformation provided on Talking
(37:38):
Real Money is for informational,educational, and hopefully
enjoyable purposes only.
The podcast is not trying to getyou to buy or sell any financial
products or securities.
Instead, the program is providedas a public service by Apello
Wealth, a fee-only registeredinvestment advisor.
Please see ApelloWelph's ADVPart 2 edit on our website for
information regarding Apellos,fees, and services.
Apolo Capital, LOC DBA ApelloWealth, is an investment
(37:59):
advisory firm registered withthe Securities and Exchange
Commission.
The firm only transacts businessin the states where it is
properly registered, or excludedor exempt from registration
requirements.
Registration with the SEC or anystate securities authority does
not imply a certain level ofskill or training.
Apello does not provide tax orlegal advice, and nothing either
stated or implied here should beinferred as providing such
advice.
Thanks for listening, and pleasevisit talkingrealmoney.com for
(38:21):
more information and importantdisclosure related to
performance of any specificindex or fund quoted in this
podcast.
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