November 7, 2025 • 35 mins
The shutdown continues but there may be an offramp for both parties. Airlines flying fewer airplanes but it really doesn't change much for ATC. Walmart turkey dinner is not an economic indicator.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
And Hi, how are you happy Friday? To you? On
this the seventh day of November, Year of Our Lord,
twenty twenty five. My name is Tom Sullivan. And well,
we've got some maybe a little breakthrough on the shutdown
of the government day what is this day? Thirty thirty eight,
(00:46):
who's counting? We've got that, We've got an update on. Yeah,
the airlines are are cutting back on their flying and
it's going to get even worse if there if the
shutdown continues. Some updates about the and updates about that
ups jet that crashed in Louisville. So a lot to
go over. Let's start with the breaking news on this.
(01:10):
It's Friday afternoon while we're recording this, and Chuck Schumer
just came to the floor of the US Senate and
had So this isn't something where they're talking behind them,
but they've been talking behind the scenes. And I told
you yesterday that the way I see this coming to
some sort of end is that they're going to try
(01:33):
to keep the healthcare subsidies going for a year or
two or maybe three, which is typical in Washington, is
to kick the can down the road. And I don't
mean to reach around and pat myself on the back.
But that's exactly what Chuck Schumer announced this afternoon, was
(01:57):
why don't we reopen the government and then but kick
the can down the road one year for the subsidies
for the Affordable Care Act would continue for at least
a year while they put together a bipartisan committee to
negotiate how to fix healthcare. Now, this fixing healthcare has
(02:20):
been an issue before Obamacare passed and certainly since it's passed,
and they don't I mean it's the government program was
originally designed to make it so that we would all
cave and sign up for a government run healthcare program.
(02:41):
That was the goal. It hasn't happened. It's been ten
years and we're still some of us on private insurance,
some of us on government insurance. So let's listen to
what Chuck Schumer has to say and then we'll chat
about it.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
Democrats have said we must address the health care crisis,
but Republicans have repeatedly said they won't negotiate to lower
the healthcare costs until the government reopens. So let's find
a path to honor both positions. Democrats would like to
see an end to this shutdown. And we want to
(03:19):
respect Leader Thun's desire not to negotiate on ACA until
after the government reopens. Therefore, we'd like to offer a
simple proposal that would reopen the government and extend the
ACA premium tax credits simultaneously, and then have the opportunity
(03:39):
to start negotiating longer term solutions to health care costs.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Let's do all three.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
I've spoken with my caucus, and Democrats are offering a
very simple compromise. Democrats are ready to clear the way
to quickly pass a government funding bill that includes health
care affordability. Leader Thun just needs to add a clean
one year extension of the ACA tax credits to the
(04:07):
CR so that we can immediately address rising healthcare costs.
That's not a negotiation. It's an extension of current law,
something we do all the time around here, as we
all know. But we also offer this Let's create a
bipartisan committee that will continue negotiations after the government reopens
(04:31):
on reforms ahead of next year's enrollment period to provide
long term certainty that healthcare costs will be more affordable.
This proposal reopens the government and insures working families who
are shopping right now for their healthcare, get certainty and
financial relief. While open enrollment has begun, insurers can update
(04:55):
their rates after we pass a simple extension of the
tax credits. With this approach, we do not negotiate health
care in the shutdown, as leaderthun has maintained he wishes,
and the American people get the tax credit extension they want.
That is what many of our Republican colleagues have floated
(05:15):
over the last six weeks as a compromise, a one
year tax credit extension and reforms to the credit. Beyond that.
We will agree with the Republican Republican request not to
start negotiations until after the government reopens. All Republicans have
to do is say yes to extend current law for
(05:37):
one year. It makes sense, and since what we're proposing
is only a simple extension of current law, the Senate
could do this within a few hours. This is a
reasonable offer that reopens the government, deals with health care affordability,
and begins a process of negotiating reforms to the ACA
(06:02):
tax credits for the future. Now the ball is in
the Republicans court. We need Republicans to just say yes.
I yield to Senator Peters.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
So there you go. And by the way, I've got
other Senators that earlier this afternoon that we're making it
very clear this is a political game. It's such a
political game. But what they don't care about, but I
do as a taxpayer and as a health insurance byer,
we all are, is that by the subsidies increase the
(06:40):
cost of health insurance. And they know, They've got to
know that. Some of them are, though I think maybe
they're just not bright enough to figure that whole thing out.
One guy that I've always been impressed with, a Democrat.
He was a former head of DAH Jay Johnson in
(07:01):
the Obama administration. He's a big Democrat. But listened to
what he had to say earlier today, it's real pain
for the American public. It's real pain for the federal workforce.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Johnath and I ran a cabinet department of two hundred
and thirty thousand people, and I feel an obligation to
speak for them. They have no voice in this process.
They are political footballs, essentially, and they're either furloughed, sent
home without pay, or they're forced to work without pay.
Dedicated to this country's aviation security, border security, cybersecurity, Maritimes security,
(07:39):
and I will I will break ranks with my party
to say this has got to stop. This is the
longest government shut down in history, thirty eight days, and
we need to get out of the business of leveraging
one issue on the back of another. Otherwise going to
(08:01):
become the new norm. When the Republicans are back in
the minority, and they will be, they will say, well,
you need sixty votes to reopen the government. Well, we
want you to also address issue A, B, and C,
and our democracy will spiral downward. And so at the
very least, the Republican majority of A to allow us
(08:22):
straight up and down vote on healthcare, but deal with
these issues separately so that they rise or fall on
their own merits. Don't leverage one issue on the back
of the other. Otherwise we're going to end up with
the dysfunctional government, which is what we have now. The
obligation of Congress, first obligation of Congress is to keep
(08:43):
the lights on from the government, and we are not
doing that. This has got to stop.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
So he's a powerful guy and influential guy, well respected
on both sides of the aisle, and I can't help
but wonder he's basically breaking with the Democrats. He is
a Democrat. Maybe help the Democrats come to some sort
of offer that Schumer laid on the floor of the
Senate late this afternoon. Chris Murphy is a senator from Connecticut.
(09:13):
He's been making noise about wanting to run for president.
And the more he acts like a hack, the more
I think this guy doesn't have a prayer. He was
with interviewed by punch Bowl News Service earlier today, and
(09:34):
listen to him. He is totally a hack. This is
all about. He doesn't care about if you're not going
to be able to get to your Thanksgiving dinner with
your family. He doesn't care about the problems with the
people who aren't getting paychecks that are federal employees. All
he wants is this is about getting a win for
the Democrats.
Speaker 4 (09:55):
I think there will be some pretty substantial damage done
to a Democratic brand that has been rehabilitated. If on
the heels of an election in which the people told
us to keep fighting, we immediately stop fighting, if we
surrender without having gotten anything, and we cause a lot
(10:16):
of folks in this country who had started to believe
in the Democratic Party to retreat. And again, I worry
that it will be hard to sort of get them
back up off the mat in time for next fall's
election cycle.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
Yeah, he knows that the Democrats had a big win
on Tuesday, but that wasn't a message for them to
continue to keep fighting and keep the government shut down.
That they were voting for some candidates that were put
before them. But Chris Murphy's worry about the Democrat brand,
it might be damaged. And just when they got all
excited about their win and then they cave on giving
(10:53):
in to the Republicans, those evil Republicans. He's such a hack,
such a hack. John Thune, the Senate Republican leader, this
is his reaction.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
Now the Democrats just have to take yes for an answer.
We've given them everything essentially that they were asking for,
the reasonable Democrats, not the crazy ones like what you
just heard. But they literally yesterday at their Democratic Caucus
meeting in the Senate had a pep rally. I mean,
they are celebrating this. It's insane. And what's happening is
(11:27):
the far left, which is the tail wagging the dog,
is bullying the reasonable Democrats out of coming to the table.
We have a proposal that they have been reviewing and
looking at now for several days, mostly with things that
they asked for, including a normal appropriations process, we open
up the government, they get a vote on their Obamacare fix,
they want to sit down meet with the President on
(11:48):
a path forward. He's more than willing to do that.
All those things are in play, but they can't take
yes for an answer for fear. I mean, these people
are scared, spitless of their base, and that's what's happening.
Yes Day was a bullying session. The far left and
the Democrat Caucus bullied the reasonable ones out of coming
(12:10):
to the table and settling this. I'm still hoping that
these people are going to come to the table and
we'll find out's in enough.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
So there's no doubt. I'm sure that you've heard that
a lot of people accuse the Republicans in Congress of
being afraid of President Trump. They don't want to make
him mad. They otherwise they're going to get primary they'll
lose their fat, cushy job. Well, this is you can
believe that or not, it doesn't matter. This is going
on on the Democrat side. They're afraid of the far left.
(12:38):
AOC is going to go to primaryim they'll lose their fat,
cushy jobs. So everybody's afraid of something. We don't have
true representation. These are supposed to be the four hundred
and thirty five members of the House one hundred members
of the Senate are supposed to represent our voices, and
they're just playing political games. And Jay Johnson's right. I mean,
(13:01):
if they keep holding up the government because of one
issue that they have a problem with, no sit down
at the table, negotiated like Congress has done forever since
the start of the country. So this is very, very frustrated.
It's also damaging the economy. Kevin has, the head of
the Director of the Director of the National Economic Council,
(13:25):
laid it out this way.
Speaker 6 (13:26):
The impact on the economy is far worse than we
expected because it's gone on for so long, and so
they are now like gold minestments that it's over a
percent or percent a half of GDP. I will say travel,
travel at leisure is a place that's really being heavily
hit right now. And if it continues to get hit,
if the air travel thing goes south for another week
(13:47):
or two, then you could say that they would have
at least a near term, yeah.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
A new term disaster. By the way, Transportation Secretary Sean
Duffy was also out speaking again today and said that
they've already cut four percent of the flights and that
that will get ramped up to ten percent by this
by next Friday. And then he said, and if it
(14:13):
continues past that, it could be twenty percent of the
flights will be canceled. That's heading right into the Thanksgiving
travel season. There, Well, let's go through some of this.
Here's some of the travelers that were stopped by the
media at the airport today.
Speaker 7 (14:31):
This is very tacky, but I hope some of those
senators and Congressmans get stuck because they can't get somewhere,
so they'll get there and figure this out and get
it going again.
Speaker 8 (14:41):
He said, shut down, so you'd never know. So we
are coming from Singapore. Imagine we have trap hearing the
America from US. The first flight gets canceled, probably have
to rent a car and.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Drive, thought about driving the Arizonable. We change your mindn't all.
We're gonna chance it.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
We're going to likely experience a big rush of folks
coming in over the weekend, and you know, and then
just general panic.
Speaker 9 (15:07):
I mean, people don't know what to expect.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
People who are working are obviously overworked and getting tired,
and so that's nerve wracking a little bit. Yeah, it
is nerve wracking. And this is all because of some
political hacks that are playing political games. They don't care
about you. I know, if you remember, I've always told
you if you want to be an elected official, remember
(15:30):
you always end every sentence with for the American people,
which is totally bogus. It's for them and their power.
Kevin Bailey, former FAA safety guy. It talks about that angle.
Speaker 10 (15:46):
This is going to be at the most a really
big headache. I think the administration is being proactive, and
you know, safety is not going to be the issue here.
It's not an issue of safety. They're being very proactive.
It's pretty much to be a big headache. I think
four travelers, especially as we get into the really big
travel rush towards the end of November. What I think
(16:08):
they're gonna do is pretty much target the smaller airplane.
So in other words, they're not cutting ten percent of
the passengers, they're cutting ten percent of the operations. So
they're going to probably target the smaller regional jets that
maybe hohold twenty or thirty passengers, not a big seven
sixty seven or seven seventy seven that's making connections. So
(16:30):
I think if you're on a big airplane, you're pretty safe.
But if you're like on a flight where they say
you're going to Florida, they have ten flights per day,
maybe they'll cut one or two, but it's going to
be a headache, I think at the most.
Speaker 1 (16:44):
Okay, So that's a little bit heartening that it's not
a safety issue, it's simply and he's the former FAA
safety head. Yeah, this is where I again, I gotta
pap myself on the back. I told you yesterday. They'll
probably be cutting the smaller planes because a plane, any plane,
doesn't matter, if it's a single engine cessing a propeller plane,
(17:09):
it takes up one space or an airplane in the sky,
and they can't have two airplanes in the same space.
So if they can reduce the number of smaller planes
that have maybe he said ten twenty passengers, it could
some of them hold fifty to sixty seventy passengers, called
(17:30):
regional jets. They will probably be cutting those first. And
the way you can tell if you're booking a flight.
If you're going into a small or medium sized airport,
there's a better chance that you might be on a
regional jet. If you're going into a major airport from
a major city, you're probably on a legacy airline. For example,
(17:56):
American Airlines, Delta, United, they all have companies that fly
the regional flights they have. They have the American and
Delta tail on them. But there if you look on
your ticket or your reservation, it will say American Airlines
flight one, two, three, four operated by and they'll have
(18:19):
a Pinnacle Airlines, or there's another three or four regional carriers,
but they they go under the flag of the major carrier.
But that's where if you have a flight that is
quote operated by and then fill in the blank, you're
probably those are the ones that are probably going to
get cut first. I love this guy. This guy is
(18:41):
an air traffic controller from Denver, and he thinks I
think he's dead on right, that this is all bogus.
Speaker 7 (18:50):
Whether I'm talking to you know, fifty planes in an hour,
or I'm talking to you know, forty five planes in
an hour, it's it's not much of a difference seeing
it by ten percent.
Speaker 9 (19:01):
Is it's a joke.
Speaker 11 (19:02):
Like I said, it's just something that's being used by
the administration to make the flying public feel the pain.
Controllers are just being used as a pawn in this
whole game of the shutdown.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Yeah, so flying passagers are being used. It's all part
of a game. And he's right. I mean, whether he's
talking to forty five or fifty planes in an hour
doesn't really make any difference to him. It doesn't change
his workload. But the problem is you still need them
to show up at work, and they are well, they're second.
(19:35):
I believe a second paycheck was due today, so they've
now missed two full paychecks, which I don't want to
go down that ramp again. But I learned very early
on in life that you should and it's hard when
you're young and you don't make a lot of money,
but you should have three to six months worth of
(19:57):
living expenses tucked away somewhere that you can get your
hands on it. Not on some five year CD, No,
it should be something that you can reach out and use.
And when I say three to six months worth of
living expenses, I'm not talking about three to six months
of what your your paycheck is but close what I'm
(20:22):
then it takes time to build that up and put
that in some place where you can get your hands
on it, some interest bearing account, and that's your slush fund.
That that's your emergency fund. And the way I always
did it was you go through and you take a
look at your expenses for the month, and you go, well,
let's see there was the rent or the mortgage. A
(20:43):
lot of people have a car payment. You can't. You
can't have the roof over your head taken away. You
can't have your car taken away by the repoman. But again,
the bills that you pay through your groceries, those are
the things that you should have that amount tucked aside.
(21:04):
Three to six months worth, as far as going out
to dinner, going to movies, having entertainment, having a good time,
that's nice, But for an emergency fund, you don't need
to count all that because if you're in an emergency,
you're not going to be living the high life. So again,
three to six months of the real minimum that you
(21:26):
must have in order to meet your monthly obligations. But
David Riley from Air Traffic Controller in Denver's right doesn't
make this whole thing about cutting back ten percent doesn't
make a change in his life. Speaking of airplanes, and
(21:47):
TSB came out today and gave us a little bit
more information about the crash of the ups MD eleven
in Louisville the other day.
Speaker 9 (21:55):
Are we found multiple pieces of engine fan blades along
with the main component of the engine of the number
one engine, which is on the left side of the aircraft.
We have transferred all of those to a secured location
for further examination, and we'll be using that to further
analyze any mechanical aspects. I brief the families of those
(22:19):
who were on the ground. There were approximately fifty sixty people,
and it's a tough situation. It's hard. Their main issue
is where's my loved one, because right now no one's
been identified.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
Yeah, the statistics on this are simply this. There were
three crew members on this cargo jet. They're perished, but
you've got a total of thirteen people that have died,
so the rest of them are people that were in
the industrial area off the end of the airport. There's
(22:51):
still nine missing, so we've got a potential of twenty
one people that perished in this jet. Crash. Again, it's
not like a passenger jet. You've only got three members
of there. But it went off the end of the
runway and into this bunch of warehouses essentially, And there's
(23:14):
employees that worked in those warehouses who were killed instantly
as the jet came crashing in on them. So Thanksgiving
isn't that far away. We're worried about the travel angle
to it, but also the whole thing. Ever since Tuesday
in the election and the Democrats swept the board, the
(23:34):
Republicans are trying to lick their wounds that they're trying
to figure out what happened, and a lot of people
are saying that Joe Biden did not get a second
term because the economy stupid, it's always the economy, and
because of the fact that inflation was up over nine
(23:56):
percent at one point during his four year term. They
it came back down again, but at the same time
it prices went up and inflation slowed down, but prices
did not necessarily come down. And that's why a lot
of people today are still looking at the bill that
(24:19):
they get from the grocery when you check out with
the cashier at the grocery store and going holy smokes,
this is expensive. It's truly because and this is where
everybody gets the description of inflation. It wasn't nine percent
now it's at three percent, So therefore inflation is way down. No,
it's not. It just is going up slower prices overall.
(24:42):
Now there are some prices that went down, there are
some prices that went way up, but the overall macro
of inflation, the basket of inflation, prices never came down.
We never had a minus sign. So that's that's why
people are going, Man, it's expensive about there. And that
(25:03):
was the number one reason it always is. People vote
their pocketbook. And that's why Joe Biden got tossed out.
And let's bring in Donald Trump because Donald Trump said
that he would get prices down, and prices are not down,
and I don't know how he can get them down.
It's the same thing with the two ladies that won
the governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia. They were
(25:28):
also promising, where I vote for me, I'm going to
get prices. I don't know how any governor, any president,
any politician is going to be able to get prices down,
other than in the case of the president. One thing
he was excellent at in the first term was a deregulation.
He's cut the cost of doing business, which therefore allowed
(25:52):
businesses to lower their prices and or hire more people
and expand their companies, which they did. And I know
he's been busy with foreign affairs and solving wars and
doing all of the things he does around the world.
Got investments to come into the United States. That's all nice.
And that's where Joe Biden got caught. Remember the Biden
(26:14):
administration kept talking about the economic indicators. The economy is
doing fine. Biden nomics was great. Don't you people see
how wonderful the economy is. What's the matter with you? Well,
I'm kind of hearing that same tone coming out of
the White House right now. Well, the economic indicators say,
(26:35):
I mean, inflation is no longer going up nine percent,
It's only going up three percent. So therefore inflation is down.
Inflation is down, but prices are not down. And I'm
afraid they're going to get caught in the same trap.
And one of the ways that really caught my attention
was the President was asked about Thanksgiving meals and that
(26:57):
Walmart has some basket of things that they sell as
a as a Thanksgiving meal, and the President was all
thrilled about that. Here's President Trump.
Speaker 12 (27:11):
So Walmart to me, you know, it's triple A came
out that nobody going to influence them. I don't know them,
but they just came out with a very powerful satement.
They've done it for many years that under the Biden administration,
Thanksgiving meal, a Thanksgiving meal with all the trimmings costs
twenty five percent more. In other words, our Thanksgiving this
(27:35):
year coming up will cost twenty five percent less than
slippy Joe Biden's. Now, to me, that's better than anything
there is. I was angry less that with the Republicans.
They say, you don't talk about this. Nobody talks about it.
You know, I rely on the question from a reporter
to get that out. We should be talking about it
(27:57):
because they talk about affordable so that he didn't have affordability.
What the Democrats do is they lie. We are the
ones that have done great for an affordability. They're done
horribly on affordability. The only thing is they go out
and they took they take commercials out. Under the Democrats,
you have affordability.
Speaker 9 (28:15):
It's just the opposite.
Speaker 12 (28:17):
We have much lower prices than they do, and we
only have one thing, beef. Because the cattle ranches are
doing well, we're going to bring the beef prices down,
and they understand that, even if we have to help
them out. But the beef also is not a big difference.
But every price is down. The beggest price is energy.
(28:37):
We're at almost two dollars for gasoline.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
Okay, let's unpack some of that. First of all, we're
at two dollars gasoline. No gas prices across the country
are the national average, according to Triple A, three dollars
and eight cents for the cheap stuff. That's today three
oh eight. A year ago it was three, So it's
(29:01):
come down two cents on average. Now I look at
the national map of gas prices. Out west, where it's
always been super expensive, it's still California four dollars sixty
nine cents, Nevada three dollars ninety eight cents, State of
Washington four dollars twenty four cents. It's all over four
(29:22):
dollars mostly on the West coast. You go down to
the south Texas is there's a two dollars gas to
sixty three, Louisiana to sixty two, Mississippi to sixty So
it's in the twos down there in oil country, where
you would expect it to be. But the average across
(29:44):
the country is three toh eight compared to three dollars
and ten cents a year ago. So prices technically are down,
but not a lot. And when you take a look
at the Consumer Price Index, the last time we got
it was back in September. The September numbers came out
early October, food prices were up three point one percent
(30:08):
over the past year. So they're not down, they're up,
and they're going up at a rate of three point
one percent. Now, when you take a look at Thanksgiving
on the bird is up six tenths of a percent,
Canned fruit and vegetables up five percent, fresh biscuits, rolls
(30:29):
and muffins up four percent, potatoes up three point seven,
eggs the own well and butter. Eggs down one point three,
butter down one point eight. Those are the only two
that are down. Bread is up one point eight percent.
So when you cut all of this, well, Thanksgiving dinner
(30:51):
is going to be more expensive. Now, Walmart is not
an economic indicator they're they're a marketing retailer, and they
come up with specials to try to get you to
come in to get your Thanksgiving dinner, and while you're there,
you'll buy a bunch of other stuff. But taking a
look at the Walmart promotion that they came up with,
(31:11):
which the President was referring to, the reason it's twenty
five percent cheaper is because they have fewer items. Last year,
they had twenty one items in their Walmart Thanksgiving dinner promotion,
twenty one items. This year they got fifteen. And that's
(31:32):
the way they make it so that the price is
lower because there's less food in their item. But using
Walmart as an economic indicator is no. It's a retailer
and they're hustling promotions to get you to come in
their door. So good for Walmart, but a real economic
(31:54):
indicator that is not a government produced number. I've told
you before about the Consumer Attitude checksters two big surveys
every month. One of them is by the University of Michigan.
The other one is the Conference Board. And today the
University of Michigan came out with their consumer sentiment and
(32:15):
it fell to levels that are historic lows. We had
a level that was very similar in June of twenty
twenty two. That's one inflation was through the roof and
we're back down to those levels, back down, so the
(32:37):
mood of consumers dropped further. In November, according to the
University of Michigan, the headline index felled of fifty, down
from fifty four the previous month. That again is about
where it was during COVID slash nine percent inflation. So
(32:58):
people are in and it's been The economists describe it
as a K economy K the letter K, so you've
got one arm of the K going up and you've
got the other arm of the K going down. That's
the problem is we have people both with improving in
(33:21):
this economy and people that are not. As far as
retail sales go, I think this is a shocking number,
but it's been a number of outfits are reporting the
same thing and they have for a couple of months.
Is that the top ten percent income in this country
is responsible for fifty percent of retail sales. So retail
(33:46):
sales are being held up by and doing well by
the top ten percent who are doing well, but everybody
else makes up the rest of it. So I think
the President and the White House, it's easy to not
have your ear on the ground. They're kind of locked
(34:06):
up in the White House and you don't really get
a sense of what's going on with the public. And
the president's not out there doing rallies like he used
to do during campaign season. But I really think they
need to pay attention. They got one year to get
the economy in a shape where people feel better about it.
(34:28):
There's a lot of people that don't, and the economy
is number one reason why people vote the way they vote.
All right, let's see what Wall Street. Speaking of money,
see what Wall Street did today. The Dow Jones industrials
took a bit of a roller coaster ride. We were
down midday about three hundred points, and it worked its
(34:49):
way back to a gain of at the close, up
seventy four. The Dow at forty six nine eighty seven,
the S and P up eight, NASDAK down forty nine.
This is caps the worst week for the Nasdaq since
back in Liberation Day back in April. Price of gold
(35:09):
up nineteen dollars to four thy ten, price of oil
up half a buck to fifty just under sixty dollars
now fifty nine to ninety for a barrel of oil.
That's it for today, have a wonderful weekend. We'll be
back on Monday. I hope to see you then
And Hi, how are you happy Friday? To you? On
this the seventh day of November, Year of Our Lord,
twenty twenty five. My name is Tom Sullivan. And well,
we've got some maybe a little breakthrough on the shutdown
of the government day what is this day? Thirty thirty eight,
(00:46):
who's counting? We've got that, We've got an update on. Yeah,
the airlines are are cutting back on their flying and
it's going to get even worse if there if the
shutdown continues. Some updates about the and updates about that
ups jet that crashed in Louisville. So a lot to
go over. Let's start with the breaking news on this.
(01:10):
It's Friday afternoon while we're recording this, and Chuck Schumer
just came to the floor of the US Senate and
had So this isn't something where they're talking behind them,
but they've been talking behind the scenes. And I told
you yesterday that the way I see this coming to
some sort of end is that they're going to try
(01:33):
to keep the healthcare subsidies going for a year or
two or maybe three, which is typical in Washington, is
to kick the can down the road. And I don't
mean to reach around and pat myself on the back.
But that's exactly what Chuck Schumer announced this afternoon, was
(01:57):
why don't we reopen the government and then but kick
the can down the road one year for the subsidies
for the Affordable Care Act would continue for at least
a year while they put together a bipartisan committee to
negotiate how to fix healthcare. Now, this fixing healthcare has
(02:20):
been an issue before Obamacare passed and certainly since it's passed,
and they don't I mean it's the government program was
originally designed to make it so that we would all
cave and sign up for a government run healthcare program.
(02:41):
That was the goal. It hasn't happened. It's been ten
years and we're still some of us on private insurance,
some of us on government insurance. So let's listen to
what Chuck Schumer has to say and then we'll chat
about it.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
Democrats have said we must address the health care crisis,
but Republicans have repeatedly said they won't negotiate to lower
the healthcare costs until the government reopens. So let's find
a path to honor both positions. Democrats would like to
see an end to this shutdown. And we want to
(03:19):
respect Leader Thun's desire not to negotiate on ACA until
after the government reopens. Therefore, we'd like to offer a
simple proposal that would reopen the government and extend the
ACA premium tax credits simultaneously, and then have the opportunity
(03:39):
to start negotiating longer term solutions to health care costs.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Let's do all three.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
I've spoken with my caucus, and Democrats are offering a
very simple compromise. Democrats are ready to clear the way
to quickly pass a government funding bill that includes health
care affordability. Leader Thun just needs to add a clean
one year extension of the ACA tax credits to the
(04:07):
CR so that we can immediately address rising healthcare costs.
That's not a negotiation. It's an extension of current law,
something we do all the time around here, as we
all know. But we also offer this Let's create a
bipartisan committee that will continue negotiations after the government reopens
(04:31):
on reforms ahead of next year's enrollment period to provide
long term certainty that healthcare costs will be more affordable.
This proposal reopens the government and insures working families who
are shopping right now for their healthcare, get certainty and
financial relief. While open enrollment has begun, insurers can update
(04:55):
their rates after we pass a simple extension of the
tax credits. With this approach, we do not negotiate health
care in the shutdown, as leaderthun has maintained he wishes,
and the American people get the tax credit extension they want.
That is what many of our Republican colleagues have floated
(05:15):
over the last six weeks as a compromise, a one
year tax credit extension and reforms to the credit. Beyond that.
We will agree with the Republican Republican request not to
start negotiations until after the government reopens. All Republicans have
to do is say yes to extend current law for
(05:37):
one year. It makes sense, and since what we're proposing
is only a simple extension of current law, the Senate
could do this within a few hours. This is a
reasonable offer that reopens the government, deals with health care affordability,
and begins a process of negotiating reforms to the ACA
(06:02):
tax credits for the future. Now the ball is in
the Republicans court. We need Republicans to just say yes.
I yield to Senator Peters.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
So there you go. And by the way, I've got
other Senators that earlier this afternoon that we're making it
very clear this is a political game. It's such a
political game. But what they don't care about, but I
do as a taxpayer and as a health insurance byer,
we all are, is that by the subsidies increase the
(06:40):
cost of health insurance. And they know, They've got to
know that. Some of them are, though I think maybe
they're just not bright enough to figure that whole thing out.
One guy that I've always been impressed with, a Democrat.
He was a former head of DAH Jay Johnson in
(07:01):
the Obama administration. He's a big Democrat. But listened to
what he had to say earlier today, it's real pain
for the American public. It's real pain for the federal workforce.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Johnath and I ran a cabinet department of two hundred
and thirty thousand people, and I feel an obligation to
speak for them. They have no voice in this process.
They are political footballs, essentially, and they're either furloughed, sent
home without pay, or they're forced to work without pay.
Dedicated to this country's aviation security, border security, cybersecurity, Maritimes security,
(07:39):
and I will I will break ranks with my party
to say this has got to stop. This is the
longest government shut down in history, thirty eight days, and
we need to get out of the business of leveraging
one issue on the back of another. Otherwise going to
(08:01):
become the new norm. When the Republicans are back in
the minority, and they will be, they will say, well,
you need sixty votes to reopen the government. Well, we
want you to also address issue A, B, and C,
and our democracy will spiral downward. And so at the
very least, the Republican majority of A to allow us
(08:22):
straight up and down vote on healthcare, but deal with
these issues separately so that they rise or fall on
their own merits. Don't leverage one issue on the back
of the other. Otherwise we're going to end up with
the dysfunctional government, which is what we have now. The
obligation of Congress, first obligation of Congress is to keep
(08:43):
the lights on from the government, and we are not
doing that. This has got to stop.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
So he's a powerful guy and influential guy, well respected
on both sides of the aisle, and I can't help
but wonder he's basically breaking with the Democrats. He is
a Democrat. Maybe help the Democrats come to some sort
of offer that Schumer laid on the floor of the
Senate late this afternoon. Chris Murphy is a senator from Connecticut.
(09:13):
He's been making noise about wanting to run for president.
And the more he acts like a hack, the more
I think this guy doesn't have a prayer. He was
with interviewed by punch Bowl News Service earlier today, and
(09:34):
listen to him. He is totally a hack. This is
all about. He doesn't care about if you're not going
to be able to get to your Thanksgiving dinner with
your family. He doesn't care about the problems with the
people who aren't getting paychecks that are federal employees. All
he wants is this is about getting a win for
the Democrats.
Speaker 4 (09:55):
I think there will be some pretty substantial damage done
to a Democratic brand that has been rehabilitated. If on
the heels of an election in which the people told
us to keep fighting, we immediately stop fighting, if we
surrender without having gotten anything, and we cause a lot
(10:16):
of folks in this country who had started to believe
in the Democratic Party to retreat. And again, I worry
that it will be hard to sort of get them
back up off the mat in time for next fall's
election cycle.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
Yeah, he knows that the Democrats had a big win
on Tuesday, but that wasn't a message for them to
continue to keep fighting and keep the government shut down.
That they were voting for some candidates that were put
before them. But Chris Murphy's worry about the Democrat brand,
it might be damaged. And just when they got all
excited about their win and then they cave on giving
(10:53):
in to the Republicans, those evil Republicans. He's such a hack,
such a hack. John Thune, the Senate Republican leader, this
is his reaction.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
Now the Democrats just have to take yes for an answer.
We've given them everything essentially that they were asking for,
the reasonable Democrats, not the crazy ones like what you
just heard. But they literally yesterday at their Democratic Caucus
meeting in the Senate had a pep rally. I mean,
they are celebrating this. It's insane. And what's happening is
(11:27):
the far left, which is the tail wagging the dog,
is bullying the reasonable Democrats out of coming to the table.
We have a proposal that they have been reviewing and
looking at now for several days, mostly with things that
they asked for, including a normal appropriations process, we open
up the government, they get a vote on their Obamacare fix,
they want to sit down meet with the President on
(11:48):
a path forward. He's more than willing to do that.
All those things are in play, but they can't take
yes for an answer for fear. I mean, these people
are scared, spitless of their base, and that's what's happening.
Yes Day was a bullying session. The far left and
the Democrat Caucus bullied the reasonable ones out of coming
(12:10):
to the table and settling this. I'm still hoping that
these people are going to come to the table and
we'll find out's in enough.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
So there's no doubt. I'm sure that you've heard that
a lot of people accuse the Republicans in Congress of
being afraid of President Trump. They don't want to make
him mad. They otherwise they're going to get primary they'll
lose their fat, cushy job. Well, this is you can
believe that or not, it doesn't matter. This is going
on on the Democrat side. They're afraid of the far left.
(12:38):
AOC is going to go to primaryim they'll lose their fat,
cushy jobs. So everybody's afraid of something. We don't have
true representation. These are supposed to be the four hundred
and thirty five members of the House one hundred members
of the Senate are supposed to represent our voices, and
they're just playing political games. And Jay Johnson's right. I mean,
(13:01):
if they keep holding up the government because of one
issue that they have a problem with, no sit down
at the table, negotiated like Congress has done forever since
the start of the country. So this is very, very frustrated.
It's also damaging the economy. Kevin has, the head of
the Director of the Director of the National Economic Council,
(13:25):
laid it out this way.
Speaker 6 (13:26):
The impact on the economy is far worse than we
expected because it's gone on for so long, and so
they are now like gold minestments that it's over a
percent or percent a half of GDP. I will say travel,
travel at leisure is a place that's really being heavily
hit right now. And if it continues to get hit,
if the air travel thing goes south for another week
(13:47):
or two, then you could say that they would have
at least a near term, yeah.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
A new term disaster. By the way, Transportation Secretary Sean
Duffy was also out speaking again today and said that
they've already cut four percent of the flights and that
that will get ramped up to ten percent by this
by next Friday. And then he said, and if it
(14:13):
continues past that, it could be twenty percent of the
flights will be canceled. That's heading right into the Thanksgiving
travel season. There, Well, let's go through some of this.
Here's some of the travelers that were stopped by the
media at the airport today.
Speaker 7 (14:31):
This is very tacky, but I hope some of those
senators and Congressmans get stuck because they can't get somewhere,
so they'll get there and figure this out and get
it going again.
Speaker 8 (14:41):
He said, shut down, so you'd never know. So we
are coming from Singapore. Imagine we have trap hearing the
America from US. The first flight gets canceled, probably have
to rent a car and.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Drive, thought about driving the Arizonable. We change your mindn't all.
We're gonna chance it.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
We're going to likely experience a big rush of folks
coming in over the weekend, and you know, and then
just general panic.
Speaker 9 (15:07):
I mean, people don't know what to expect.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
People who are working are obviously overworked and getting tired,
and so that's nerve wracking a little bit. Yeah, it
is nerve wracking. And this is all because of some
political hacks that are playing political games. They don't care
about you. I know, if you remember, I've always told
you if you want to be an elected official, remember
(15:30):
you always end every sentence with for the American people,
which is totally bogus. It's for them and their power.
Kevin Bailey, former FAA safety guy. It talks about that angle.
Speaker 10 (15:46):
This is going to be at the most a really
big headache. I think the administration is being proactive, and
you know, safety is not going to be the issue here.
It's not an issue of safety. They're being very proactive.
It's pretty much to be a big headache. I think
four travelers, especially as we get into the really big
travel rush towards the end of November. What I think
(16:08):
they're gonna do is pretty much target the smaller airplane.
So in other words, they're not cutting ten percent of
the passengers, they're cutting ten percent of the operations. So
they're going to probably target the smaller regional jets that
maybe hohold twenty or thirty passengers, not a big seven
sixty seven or seven seventy seven that's making connections. So
(16:30):
I think if you're on a big airplane, you're pretty safe.
But if you're like on a flight where they say
you're going to Florida, they have ten flights per day,
maybe they'll cut one or two, but it's going to
be a headache, I think at the most.
Speaker 1 (16:44):
Okay, So that's a little bit heartening that it's not
a safety issue, it's simply and he's the former FAA
safety head. Yeah, this is where I again, I gotta
pap myself on the back. I told you yesterday. They'll
probably be cutting the smaller planes because a plane, any plane,
doesn't matter, if it's a single engine cessing a propeller plane,
(17:09):
it takes up one space or an airplane in the sky,
and they can't have two airplanes in the same space.
So if they can reduce the number of smaller planes
that have maybe he said ten twenty passengers, it could
some of them hold fifty to sixty seventy passengers, called
(17:30):
regional jets. They will probably be cutting those first. And
the way you can tell if you're booking a flight.
If you're going into a small or medium sized airport,
there's a better chance that you might be on a
regional jet. If you're going into a major airport from
a major city, you're probably on a legacy airline. For example,
(17:56):
American Airlines, Delta, United, they all have companies that fly
the regional flights they have. They have the American and
Delta tail on them. But there if you look on
your ticket or your reservation, it will say American Airlines
flight one, two, three, four operated by and they'll have
(18:19):
a Pinnacle Airlines, or there's another three or four regional carriers,
but they they go under the flag of the major carrier.
But that's where if you have a flight that is
quote operated by and then fill in the blank, you're
probably those are the ones that are probably going to
get cut first. I love this guy. This guy is
(18:41):
an air traffic controller from Denver, and he thinks I
think he's dead on right, that this is all bogus.
Speaker 7 (18:50):
Whether I'm talking to you know, fifty planes in an hour,
or I'm talking to you know, forty five planes in
an hour, it's it's not much of a difference seeing
it by ten percent.
Speaker 9 (19:01):
Is it's a joke.
Speaker 11 (19:02):
Like I said, it's just something that's being used by
the administration to make the flying public feel the pain.
Controllers are just being used as a pawn in this
whole game of the shutdown.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Yeah, so flying passagers are being used. It's all part
of a game. And he's right. I mean, whether he's
talking to forty five or fifty planes in an hour
doesn't really make any difference to him. It doesn't change
his workload. But the problem is you still need them
to show up at work, and they are well, they're second.
(19:35):
I believe a second paycheck was due today, so they've
now missed two full paychecks, which I don't want to
go down that ramp again. But I learned very early
on in life that you should and it's hard when
you're young and you don't make a lot of money,
but you should have three to six months worth of
(19:57):
living expenses tucked away somewhere that you can get your
hands on it. Not on some five year CD, No,
it should be something that you can reach out and use.
And when I say three to six months worth of
living expenses, I'm not talking about three to six months
of what your your paycheck is but close what I'm
(20:22):
then it takes time to build that up and put
that in some place where you can get your hands
on it, some interest bearing account, and that's your slush fund.
That that's your emergency fund. And the way I always
did it was you go through and you take a
look at your expenses for the month, and you go, well,
let's see there was the rent or the mortgage. A
(20:43):
lot of people have a car payment. You can't. You
can't have the roof over your head taken away. You
can't have your car taken away by the repoman. But again,
the bills that you pay through your groceries, those are
the things that you should have that amount tucked aside.
(21:04):
Three to six months worth, as far as going out
to dinner, going to movies, having entertainment, having a good time,
that's nice, But for an emergency fund, you don't need
to count all that because if you're in an emergency,
you're not going to be living the high life. So again,
three to six months of the real minimum that you
(21:26):
must have in order to meet your monthly obligations. But
David Riley from Air Traffic Controller in Denver's right doesn't
make this whole thing about cutting back ten percent doesn't
make a change in his life. Speaking of airplanes, and
(21:47):
TSB came out today and gave us a little bit
more information about the crash of the ups MD eleven
in Louisville the other day.
Speaker 9 (21:55):
Are we found multiple pieces of engine fan blades along
with the main component of the engine of the number
one engine, which is on the left side of the aircraft.
We have transferred all of those to a secured location
for further examination, and we'll be using that to further
analyze any mechanical aspects. I brief the families of those
(22:19):
who were on the ground. There were approximately fifty sixty people,
and it's a tough situation. It's hard. Their main issue
is where's my loved one, because right now no one's
been identified.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
Yeah, the statistics on this are simply this. There were
three crew members on this cargo jet. They're perished, but
you've got a total of thirteen people that have died,
so the rest of them are people that were in
the industrial area off the end of the airport. There's
(22:51):
still nine missing, so we've got a potential of twenty
one people that perished in this jet. Crash. Again, it's
not like a passenger jet. You've only got three members
of there. But it went off the end of the
runway and into this bunch of warehouses essentially, And there's
(23:14):
employees that worked in those warehouses who were killed instantly
as the jet came crashing in on them. So Thanksgiving
isn't that far away. We're worried about the travel angle
to it, but also the whole thing. Ever since Tuesday
in the election and the Democrats swept the board, the
(23:34):
Republicans are trying to lick their wounds that they're trying
to figure out what happened, and a lot of people
are saying that Joe Biden did not get a second
term because the economy stupid, it's always the economy, and
because of the fact that inflation was up over nine
(23:56):
percent at one point during his four year term. They
it came back down again, but at the same time
it prices went up and inflation slowed down, but prices
did not necessarily come down. And that's why a lot
of people today are still looking at the bill that
(24:19):
they get from the grocery when you check out with
the cashier at the grocery store and going holy smokes,
this is expensive. It's truly because and this is where
everybody gets the description of inflation. It wasn't nine percent
now it's at three percent, So therefore inflation is way down. No,
it's not. It just is going up slower prices overall.
(24:42):
Now there are some prices that went down, there are
some prices that went way up, but the overall macro
of inflation, the basket of inflation, prices never came down.
We never had a minus sign. So that's that's why
people are going, Man, it's expensive about there. And that
(25:03):
was the number one reason it always is. People vote
their pocketbook. And that's why Joe Biden got tossed out.
And let's bring in Donald Trump because Donald Trump said
that he would get prices down, and prices are not down,
and I don't know how he can get them down.
It's the same thing with the two ladies that won
the governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia. They were
(25:28):
also promising, where I vote for me, I'm going to
get prices. I don't know how any governor, any president,
any politician is going to be able to get prices down,
other than in the case of the president. One thing
he was excellent at in the first term was a deregulation.
He's cut the cost of doing business, which therefore allowed
(25:52):
businesses to lower their prices and or hire more people
and expand their companies, which they did. And I know
he's been busy with foreign affairs and solving wars and
doing all of the things he does around the world.
Got investments to come into the United States. That's all nice.
And that's where Joe Biden got caught. Remember the Biden
(26:14):
administration kept talking about the economic indicators. The economy is
doing fine. Biden nomics was great. Don't you people see
how wonderful the economy is. What's the matter with you? Well,
I'm kind of hearing that same tone coming out of
the White House right now. Well, the economic indicators say,
(26:35):
I mean, inflation is no longer going up nine percent,
It's only going up three percent. So therefore inflation is down.
Inflation is down, but prices are not down. And I'm
afraid they're going to get caught in the same trap.
And one of the ways that really caught my attention
was the President was asked about Thanksgiving meals and that
(26:57):
Walmart has some basket of things that they sell as
a as a Thanksgiving meal, and the President was all
thrilled about that. Here's President Trump.
Speaker 12 (27:11):
So Walmart to me, you know, it's triple A came
out that nobody going to influence them. I don't know them,
but they just came out with a very powerful satement.
They've done it for many years that under the Biden administration,
Thanksgiving meal, a Thanksgiving meal with all the trimmings costs
twenty five percent more. In other words, our Thanksgiving this
(27:35):
year coming up will cost twenty five percent less than
slippy Joe Biden's. Now, to me, that's better than anything
there is. I was angry less that with the Republicans.
They say, you don't talk about this. Nobody talks about it.
You know, I rely on the question from a reporter
to get that out. We should be talking about it
(27:57):
because they talk about affordable so that he didn't have affordability.
What the Democrats do is they lie. We are the
ones that have done great for an affordability. They're done
horribly on affordability. The only thing is they go out
and they took they take commercials out. Under the Democrats,
you have affordability.
Speaker 9 (28:15):
It's just the opposite.
Speaker 12 (28:17):
We have much lower prices than they do, and we
only have one thing, beef. Because the cattle ranches are
doing well, we're going to bring the beef prices down,
and they understand that, even if we have to help
them out. But the beef also is not a big difference.
But every price is down. The beggest price is energy.
(28:37):
We're at almost two dollars for gasoline.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
Okay, let's unpack some of that. First of all, we're
at two dollars gasoline. No gas prices across the country
are the national average, according to Triple A, three dollars
and eight cents for the cheap stuff. That's today three
oh eight. A year ago it was three, So it's
(29:01):
come down two cents on average. Now I look at
the national map of gas prices. Out west, where it's
always been super expensive, it's still California four dollars sixty
nine cents, Nevada three dollars ninety eight cents, State of
Washington four dollars twenty four cents. It's all over four
(29:22):
dollars mostly on the West coast. You go down to
the south Texas is there's a two dollars gas to
sixty three, Louisiana to sixty two, Mississippi to sixty So
it's in the twos down there in oil country, where
you would expect it to be. But the average across
(29:44):
the country is three toh eight compared to three dollars
and ten cents a year ago. So prices technically are down,
but not a lot. And when you take a look
at the Consumer Price Index, the last time we got
it was back in September. The September numbers came out
early October, food prices were up three point one percent
(30:08):
over the past year. So they're not down, they're up,
and they're going up at a rate of three point
one percent. Now, when you take a look at Thanksgiving
on the bird is up six tenths of a percent,
Canned fruit and vegetables up five percent, fresh biscuits, rolls
(30:29):
and muffins up four percent, potatoes up three point seven,
eggs the own well and butter. Eggs down one point three,
butter down one point eight. Those are the only two
that are down. Bread is up one point eight percent.
So when you cut all of this, well, Thanksgiving dinner
(30:51):
is going to be more expensive. Now, Walmart is not
an economic indicator they're they're a marketing retailer, and they
come up with specials to try to get you to
come in to get your Thanksgiving dinner, and while you're there,
you'll buy a bunch of other stuff. But taking a
look at the Walmart promotion that they came up with,
(31:11):
which the President was referring to, the reason it's twenty
five percent cheaper is because they have fewer items. Last year,
they had twenty one items in their Walmart Thanksgiving dinner promotion,
twenty one items. This year they got fifteen. And that's
(31:32):
the way they make it so that the price is
lower because there's less food in their item. But using
Walmart as an economic indicator is no. It's a retailer
and they're hustling promotions to get you to come in
their door. So good for Walmart, but a real economic
(31:54):
indicator that is not a government produced number. I've told
you before about the Consumer Attitude checksters two big surveys
every month. One of them is by the University of Michigan.
The other one is the Conference Board. And today the
University of Michigan came out with their consumer sentiment and
(32:15):
it fell to levels that are historic lows. We had
a level that was very similar in June of twenty
twenty two. That's one inflation was through the roof and
we're back down to those levels, back down, so the
(32:37):
mood of consumers dropped further. In November, according to the
University of Michigan, the headline index felled of fifty, down
from fifty four the previous month. That again is about
where it was during COVID slash nine percent inflation. So
(32:58):
people are in and it's been The economists describe it
as a K economy K the letter K, so you've
got one arm of the K going up and you've
got the other arm of the K going down. That's
the problem is we have people both with improving in
(33:21):
this economy and people that are not. As far as
retail sales go, I think this is a shocking number,
but it's been a number of outfits are reporting the
same thing and they have for a couple of months.
Is that the top ten percent income in this country
is responsible for fifty percent of retail sales. So retail
(33:46):
sales are being held up by and doing well by
the top ten percent who are doing well, but everybody
else makes up the rest of it. So I think
the President and the White House, it's easy to not
have your ear on the ground. They're kind of locked
(34:06):
up in the White House and you don't really get
a sense of what's going on with the public. And
the president's not out there doing rallies like he used
to do during campaign season. But I really think they
need to pay attention. They got one year to get
the economy in a shape where people feel better about it.
(34:28):
There's a lot of people that don't, and the economy
is number one reason why people vote the way they vote.
All right, let's see what Wall Street. Speaking of money,
see what Wall Street did today. The Dow Jones industrials
took a bit of a roller coaster ride. We were
down midday about three hundred points, and it worked its
(34:49):
way back to a gain of at the close, up
seventy four. The Dow at forty six nine eighty seven,
the S and P up eight, NASDAK down forty nine.
This is caps the worst week for the Nasdaq since
back in Liberation Day back in April. Price of gold
(35:09):
up nineteen dollars to four thy ten, price of oil
up half a buck to fifty just under sixty dollars
now fifty nine to ninety for a barrel of oil.
That's it for today, have a wonderful weekend. We'll be
back on Monday. I hope to see you then
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