April 10, 2026 • 10 mins
Military analyst Mike Lyons joins Joe Getty to talk about the shaky truce between Iran & The United States.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart in
a conflict where they were getting hammered over Lebanon, which
has nothing to do with them, and which the United
States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that's
ultimately their choice.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
We think that would be dumb, but that's their choice.
Speaker 3 (00:17):
The dizzying situation in the golf and straysa hor mooz
the US, Iran, Israel, Lebanon and all the players. Let's
dive right into it with military analyst Mike Lyons. Mike, welcome,
how are you today?
Speaker 4 (00:30):
And Jo Great to be back with you.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Great, always good to have you.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
So, you know, I think both of us have probably
read about studied various peace agreements through history and how
some of them were a bit rocky, or you know,
there are hidden elements that the layman didn't learn about
until many years later. But I don't recall anything as
wobbly and complicated as this in recent memory.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
Yeah, I've never seen sides so far apart. I mean,
I guess the fifteen points on our side is the
ten on their side. They are the most maximalist demands
you've ever seen coming from Iran or from really any country,
basically saying that they could do whatever they want whenever
they want to do it, and they'll do whatever they
want to another country whenever they want to do it
(01:14):
to them too. So I don't know where this will start,
you know. Trump, I think originally the beginning of the
week with a lot of his tweets and comments where
he's just trying to out crazy the crazy people on
some level talking to the Iranians and language they understand.
I'm just not sure they understand any language. I'm just
not sure this is going to go anywhere. They just
don't have a history of negotiating anything, any you know,
(01:37):
giving in on anything on whatsoever. I think the Obama
administration was completely you know, taken to the woodshed by
these guys, and they're going to try. We'll see what happens.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
So is that line of thought leading to the conclusion
that the only thing we can do is so reduce
their capabilities that the intransigent maniacs that run around just
won't be as dangerous.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Yeah, I think that's really where we're We're back to
a containment foreign policy. If we can't you get some
kind of resolution within the next fourteen days, I don't
think it's going to take fourteen days. I think we're
going to draw this conclusion that they're not going to
give in on anything before that. The Vice President's comment
about this being linked to Hesbela is exactly the point.
I mean, Israel has its own security concerns, and you
(02:21):
know the fact that the country with nine million people
still punching up against the country with ninety million and
doing pretty well. You know, there's a lot of other
potential solutions there. The French could get involved with Lebanon
and help the Lebanese government disarm Hesbela.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
That's there.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
I mean, think about Hesbela. It's kind of like a
cancer or kind of you know that that infected US
country for so many years and the civilians and the
government does nothing about it. Well, if the French, which
was what, you know, their influence was there, if they'd
like to get in the game, they could possibly help
the Lebanese government do that. Hes blow has never been
any weaker. But they don't have the military, They don't
(02:56):
really choose to do anything. They just continue to send
virtual signaling statements from Paris and and hope the United
States continues to get the job done.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
I saw the quote from Norman Schwartzkop recently that I
love that going into battle without the French is like
going hunting without an accordion.
Speaker 4 (03:13):
Yeah, you know he yeah, you know again, these countries,
their perception of their strength and reality versus the actual
reality of it real politique is just you know again
the Grand Canyon. It's is why is this un or
on debate right now? And so in the UK is
the same way. I mean, there's there's going to be
real consequences over their actions within the NATO alliance. You know,
(03:35):
that NATO Alliance is not going away. I think that's
it's going to be strong to have. But their again,
their perception of their reality and their actual strength, that
remains to be seen. Look, the French have nuclear weapons though,
that's the other thing to this. I mean, so they
can decide to maybe back off and that men then
control Spain. But the Germans don't. The Germans we don't
want them to have nuclear weapons. We don't. You know,
there's there's other's issues about that nuclear non proliferation that
(03:59):
we want to keep and that's one of the things
that ties NATO together.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Yeah, I was going to feature a little bit later
on the show, an absolutely terrific piece of writing I
came across by a woman who's an author and commentator
and thinker on this sort of issue. And the piece
is entitled why the West won't call this a Holy war?
And I'm thinking about Hesbola in Lebanon, which if people
aren't familiar, it's it's a heavily armed political party that's
(04:25):
also an army. If you can picture the insanity that
Israel quote unquote coming to an agreement and a peace
agreement with Hesbela at this point, that just that's fantasy land,
isn't it, especially from the Israeli perspective.
Speaker 4 (04:41):
Exactly this is not you know, the ira that years
ago decided to put its arms down to become part
of the political process, joined the current government there and
had a representative and the like. But this is not
This is this is a fight for survival on their side.
This is die to the death.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
This is there.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
This is how they operate, and it's you know, SIMI
wonder what happened in the Second World War in terms
of how how badly you know, those countries at the
time looked Japan. Japan had a tremendous tactical victory in
December seventh, but look where that ended up leading to.
It ended up being to the fundamental demise of their
country back back then. And I think that's the same
historical analogy taking place right now. The Arab nation or
(05:19):
the you know, the terrorist organizations has Blahamas and Iran
has this great tactical victory on October seventh, few years back,
but it's going to lead to their downfall for sure.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
I certainly hope it does. More on that to come.
We're talking to military analysts and Mike Lions. So Mike,
let's say get down to brass tacks. Is there any
opening the straits of or moves without the consent of
whoever is running Iran?
Speaker 4 (05:44):
Doesn't look like it looks like the IRGC still controls
it because the threat is still coming from a military perspective.
It's those coastline batteries that they could potentially fire on
a container vessel or a ship that's going there, and
ballistic missiles. There's still minds there. We could we could
use the help of the British and other NATO countries
that have some capability with some of their mind sweeping
(06:06):
and then also some of the asymmetrical fast boating that
takes place, and so no insurance company is still going
to get involved right now. So I think I think
the next military mission is going to be looking for
the Navy to really force that issue and protect carriers
and protect protect the container ships going through there. You're
going to see possibly a step up escort mission. I
(06:28):
know the Navy's been hesitant to do that from I sources,
but I think that's what the President's going to ask
the Navy soon to do.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
Interesting, Okay, let's change topics completely. Another really interesting piece
of journalism I came across was a gal whose name
I don't recall, but she was embedded with the NATO
troops as they were doing drone training in Estonia.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
I think it was last week.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
And that's obviously a fascinating topic, and it was David
Petraeus was over there at least commenting on it, and
he said, look, you need to understand this is changing
the face of warfare completely. How do you think we're
doing on that learning curve the United States and our allies.
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Well, we're hanging on to it. We're watching closely and
we try to import some of that technology into what
we're doing. I mean, you saw, for example, the fact
that we're locating this pilot using some heart murmer technology
that can pick him out, you know, forty miles away
based on AI.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
So so what's that, right? I hadn't heard that. Yeah,
asks more about that.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
Yeah. So I mean again, with these kinds of conflicts,
all this technology comes off the shelf, and this this
technology was able to find him, help locate him using
AI by his heart rate, by his heart murmer, and
so yeah, I mean so again this and so now
bring that same mentality Ukraine. He gets up every day
and figures out how it's going to survive. So they
have to figure out how to close the kill chain
(07:49):
right this time and distance between when they know there's
a target and when they can kill the target. And
what they've done is just phenomenal of their industrial military
complex in terms of building the drone technology, software, the
implement in it, and then once it faces off to
the enemy and they see the reaction to it, changing
the software so it becomes more survivable. Ukraine has been
(08:10):
incredible in terms of that killed chain from a military's perspective,
in helping them survive and it's definitely the future of warfare.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
And you would know this a lot better than I would.
I've told the procurement process has in the past been well,
it can make a person insane, whereas now it's got
to be if I need a certain drill bit, I
run to the store. I've got that drill bit in
twenty minutes. Now that's not practical. But what about that
topic and how we need to change our procurement.
Speaker 4 (08:39):
Give you a shameless self promotion. A couple of months ago,
I wrote an article for Real Clear Defense on the
new systems, the new playbook in order to succeed in
doing that if you're a startup innovative company, because Pete
Hexad has changed that. He's changed the entire process of
how you can bring this lethality to the war fighters.
And it's all about taking things commercially off the shelf
and getting them quickly to the hands of the war fighters.
(09:01):
Innovation centers like Softworks in Tampa, Florida, working with special operators,
and again shrinking that that this this distance in time
between when when they need something and then well actually
shows up on the battlefield. So I'd urge your yeah listeners,
to go take a look at that article. If if
they're doing an inter innovative startup company and help them
to get to get to do government work, because that's
(09:23):
what this this is all about. They're trying to break
that cycle of these long acquisitions. It's called the value
of death when you have a good idea and it
dies in between what you get funding for it. This
this Trump administration is trying to do that, and I
think that's a that's a really good move.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
Interestingly enough, my brother is in that very line of work. Uh, Mike,
send us a link to that article. Why don't we
we post it so everybody can can flock to it
and read it.
Speaker 4 (09:46):
Be sure we'll do that a little alter Yeah for sure.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
Yeah, Okay, Military analyst Mike Lions Mike, As always, we
appreciate the thoughts and the wisdom. Great to talk to you,
and have a good weekend.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Thanks to you.
Speaker 4 (09:55):
Sure you have a great one, all.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Right, thanks? Thanks? Uh yeah, where this goes? Nobody knows
it is.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Maybe I lack imagination, but I'm using my feeble brain
power such as it is, to try to figure out
how we get from this side is on is saying
these things and demanding these things, and this side is,
you know, got its own set of demands and they
are utterly incompatible. The Iranian regime is completely intransigent. They're
either religious fanatics or dead enders because they will be,
(10:27):
as Jack likes to put it, hung upside down in
the town square, as the end of their days if
they don't hold onto power. There's no there's gonna be
no saying, hey, I said some harsh things. You said
some harsh things. I tortured dissidents. You know, we all
make mistakes. You can have power now. No, these people
(10:49):
are going to be killed, so they are dead enders.
If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart in
a conflict where they were getting hammered over Lebanon, which
has nothing to do with them, and which the United
States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that's
ultimately their choice.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
We think that would be dumb, but that's their choice.
Speaker 3 (00:17):
The dizzying situation in the golf and straysa hor mooz
the US, Iran, Israel, Lebanon and all the players. Let's
dive right into it with military analyst Mike Lyons. Mike, welcome,
how are you today?
Speaker 4 (00:30):
And Jo Great to be back with you.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Great, always good to have you.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
So, you know, I think both of us have probably
read about studied various peace agreements through history and how
some of them were a bit rocky, or you know,
there are hidden elements that the layman didn't learn about
until many years later. But I don't recall anything as
wobbly and complicated as this in recent memory.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
Yeah, I've never seen sides so far apart. I mean,
I guess the fifteen points on our side is the
ten on their side. They are the most maximalist demands
you've ever seen coming from Iran or from really any country,
basically saying that they could do whatever they want whenever
they want to do it, and they'll do whatever they
want to another country whenever they want to do it
(01:14):
to them too. So I don't know where this will start,
you know. Trump, I think originally the beginning of the
week with a lot of his tweets and comments where
he's just trying to out crazy the crazy people on
some level talking to the Iranians and language they understand.
I'm just not sure they understand any language. I'm just
not sure this is going to go anywhere. They just
don't have a history of negotiating anything, any you know,
(01:37):
giving in on anything on whatsoever. I think the Obama
administration was completely you know, taken to the woodshed by
these guys, and they're going to try. We'll see what happens.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
So is that line of thought leading to the conclusion
that the only thing we can do is so reduce
their capabilities that the intransigent maniacs that run around just
won't be as dangerous.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Yeah, I think that's really where we're We're back to
a containment foreign policy. If we can't you get some
kind of resolution within the next fourteen days, I don't
think it's going to take fourteen days. I think we're
going to draw this conclusion that they're not going to
give in on anything before that. The Vice President's comment
about this being linked to Hesbela is exactly the point.
I mean, Israel has its own security concerns, and you
(02:21):
know the fact that the country with nine million people
still punching up against the country with ninety million and
doing pretty well. You know, there's a lot of other
potential solutions there. The French could get involved with Lebanon
and help the Lebanese government disarm Hesbela.
Speaker 2 (02:35):
That's there.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
I mean, think about Hesbela. It's kind of like a
cancer or kind of you know that that infected US
country for so many years and the civilians and the
government does nothing about it. Well, if the French, which
was what, you know, their influence was there, if they'd
like to get in the game, they could possibly help
the Lebanese government do that. Hes blow has never been
any weaker. But they don't have the military, They don't
(02:56):
really choose to do anything. They just continue to send
virtual signaling statements from Paris and and hope the United
States continues to get the job done.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
I saw the quote from Norman Schwartzkop recently that I
love that going into battle without the French is like
going hunting without an accordion.
Speaker 4 (03:13):
Yeah, you know he yeah, you know again, these countries,
their perception of their strength and reality versus the actual
reality of it real politique is just you know again
the Grand Canyon. It's is why is this un or
on debate right now? And so in the UK is
the same way. I mean, there's there's going to be
real consequences over their actions within the NATO alliance. You know,
(03:35):
that NATO Alliance is not going away. I think that's
it's going to be strong to have. But their again,
their perception of their reality and their actual strength, that
remains to be seen. Look, the French have nuclear weapons though,
that's the other thing to this. I mean, so they
can decide to maybe back off and that men then
control Spain. But the Germans don't. The Germans we don't
want them to have nuclear weapons. We don't. You know,
there's there's other's issues about that nuclear non proliferation that
(03:59):
we want to keep and that's one of the things
that ties NATO together.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Yeah, I was going to feature a little bit later
on the show, an absolutely terrific piece of writing I
came across by a woman who's an author and commentator
and thinker on this sort of issue. And the piece
is entitled why the West won't call this a Holy war?
And I'm thinking about Hesbola in Lebanon, which if people
aren't familiar, it's it's a heavily armed political party that's
(04:25):
also an army. If you can picture the insanity that
Israel quote unquote coming to an agreement and a peace
agreement with Hesbela at this point, that just that's fantasy land,
isn't it, especially from the Israeli perspective.
Speaker 4 (04:41):
Exactly this is not you know, the ira that years
ago decided to put its arms down to become part
of the political process, joined the current government there and
had a representative and the like. But this is not
This is this is a fight for survival on their side.
This is die to the death.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
This is there.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
This is how they operate, and it's you know, SIMI
wonder what happened in the Second World War in terms
of how how badly you know, those countries at the
time looked Japan. Japan had a tremendous tactical victory in
December seventh, but look where that ended up leading to.
It ended up being to the fundamental demise of their
country back back then. And I think that's the same
historical analogy taking place right now. The Arab nation or
(05:19):
the you know, the terrorist organizations has Blahamas and Iran
has this great tactical victory on October seventh, few years back,
but it's going to lead to their downfall for sure.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
I certainly hope it does. More on that to come.
We're talking to military analysts and Mike Lions. So Mike,
let's say get down to brass tacks. Is there any
opening the straits of or moves without the consent of
whoever is running Iran?
Speaker 4 (05:44):
Doesn't look like it looks like the IRGC still controls
it because the threat is still coming from a military perspective.
It's those coastline batteries that they could potentially fire on
a container vessel or a ship that's going there, and
ballistic missiles. There's still minds there. We could we could
use the help of the British and other NATO countries
that have some capability with some of their mind sweeping
(06:06):
and then also some of the asymmetrical fast boating that
takes place, and so no insurance company is still going
to get involved right now. So I think I think
the next military mission is going to be looking for
the Navy to really force that issue and protect carriers
and protect protect the container ships going through there. You're
going to see possibly a step up escort mission. I
(06:28):
know the Navy's been hesitant to do that from I sources,
but I think that's what the President's going to ask
the Navy soon to do.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
Interesting, Okay, let's change topics completely. Another really interesting piece
of journalism I came across was a gal whose name
I don't recall, but she was embedded with the NATO
troops as they were doing drone training in Estonia.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
I think it was last week.
Speaker 3 (06:51):
And that's obviously a fascinating topic, and it was David
Petraeus was over there at least commenting on it, and
he said, look, you need to understand this is changing
the face of warfare completely. How do you think we're
doing on that learning curve the United States and our allies.
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Well, we're hanging on to it. We're watching closely and
we try to import some of that technology into what
we're doing. I mean, you saw, for example, the fact
that we're locating this pilot using some heart murmer technology
that can pick him out, you know, forty miles away
based on AI.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
So so what's that, right? I hadn't heard that. Yeah,
asks more about that.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
Yeah. So I mean again, with these kinds of conflicts,
all this technology comes off the shelf, and this this
technology was able to find him, help locate him using
AI by his heart rate, by his heart murmer, and
so yeah, I mean so again this and so now
bring that same mentality Ukraine. He gets up every day
and figures out how it's going to survive. So they
have to figure out how to close the kill chain
(07:49):
right this time and distance between when they know there's
a target and when they can kill the target. And
what they've done is just phenomenal of their industrial military
complex in terms of building the drone technology, software, the
implement in it, and then once it faces off to
the enemy and they see the reaction to it, changing
the software so it becomes more survivable. Ukraine has been
(08:10):
incredible in terms of that killed chain from a military's perspective,
in helping them survive and it's definitely the future of warfare.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
And you would know this a lot better than I would.
I've told the procurement process has in the past been well,
it can make a person insane, whereas now it's got
to be if I need a certain drill bit, I
run to the store. I've got that drill bit in
twenty minutes. Now that's not practical. But what about that
topic and how we need to change our procurement.
Speaker 4 (08:39):
Give you a shameless self promotion. A couple of months ago,
I wrote an article for Real Clear Defense on the
new systems, the new playbook in order to succeed in
doing that if you're a startup innovative company, because Pete
Hexad has changed that. He's changed the entire process of
how you can bring this lethality to the war fighters.
And it's all about taking things commercially off the shelf
and getting them quickly to the hands of the war fighters.
(09:01):
Innovation centers like Softworks in Tampa, Florida, working with special operators,
and again shrinking that that this this distance in time
between when when they need something and then well actually
shows up on the battlefield. So I'd urge your yeah listeners,
to go take a look at that article. If if
they're doing an inter innovative startup company and help them
to get to get to do government work, because that's
(09:23):
what this this is all about. They're trying to break
that cycle of these long acquisitions. It's called the value
of death when you have a good idea and it
dies in between what you get funding for it. This
this Trump administration is trying to do that, and I
think that's a that's a really good move.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
Interestingly enough, my brother is in that very line of work. Uh, Mike,
send us a link to that article. Why don't we
we post it so everybody can can flock to it
and read it.
Speaker 4 (09:46):
Be sure we'll do that a little alter Yeah for sure.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
Yeah, Okay, Military analyst Mike Lions Mike, As always, we
appreciate the thoughts and the wisdom. Great to talk to you,
and have a good weekend.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Thanks to you.
Speaker 4 (09:55):
Sure you have a great one, all.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Right, thanks? Thanks? Uh yeah, where this goes? Nobody knows
it is.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Maybe I lack imagination, but I'm using my feeble brain
power such as it is, to try to figure out
how we get from this side is on is saying
these things and demanding these things, and this side is,
you know, got its own set of demands and they
are utterly incompatible. The Iranian regime is completely intransigent. They're
either religious fanatics or dead enders because they will be,
(10:27):
as Jack likes to put it, hung upside down in
the town square, as the end of their days if
they don't hold onto power. There's no there's gonna be
no saying, hey, I said some harsh things. You said
some harsh things. I tortured dissidents. You know, we all
make mistakes. You can have power now. No, these people
(10:49):
are going to be killed, so they are dead enders.
Hosts And Creators
Joe Getty
Jack Armstrong
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Kingdom of Fraud
It’s the unlikeliest of criminal partnerships: a devout polygamist from an insular Utah sect joining forces with a shadowy Armenian tycoon from LA. The result - a billion dollar fraud conspiracy. In Kingdom of Fraud, investigative reporter Michele McPhee traces the origins of the extraordinary alliance between Jacob Kingston and Levon Termendzhyan. Together, the two men trigger the largest tax investigation in American history and weave around themselves a web of dirty cops, influential political relationships and transnational money laundering. All this is set against the backdrop of Jacob Kingston’s clan – The Order. A powerful and secretive polygamist organization in Salt Lake City. To whom Jacob is desperate to prove his worth. Kingdom of Fraud is produced by Novel for iHeart Podcasts. For more from Novel, visit https://novel.audio/. You can listen to new episodes of Kingdom of Fraud completely ad-free and 1 week early with an iHeart True Crime+ subscription, available exclusively on Apple Podcasts. Open your Apple Podcasts app, search for “iHeart True Crime+, and subscribe today!