July 7, 2026 • 12 mins
Global Security Analyst from The Washington Post joins Jack Armstrong to about China's latest move against Taiwan. Plus--Josh's latest column, "The next phase in the U.S.-China economic war is here."
Stupid Should Hurt: https://www.armstrongandgetty.com/
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We'd like to wait. Welcome to the show. Josh Rogan.
We're big fans of Josh. He is the global security
analyst of the Washington Post, and he writes, all kinds
are really interesting, Hey, Josh, interesting stuff. Hey Josh, we're
just talking about while we waited to get you on
that missile or rocket or whatever you want to call
it that China fired yesterday. How big a deal is that?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's a big deal, especially
if you're living in Taiwan right now, because what the
Chinese are doing is that they're slowly but surely proving
that they have the ability to take Taiwan at any
time of their choosing, and that there's nothing that we're
really going to do about it. And you know, we
call it like salami slicing, Like it's not that any
(00:43):
one rocket or any one maneuver is really changing the game,
per se. Is that the more that they do this
stuff and we don't react, the more that everybody in
the region knows that, like, you know, they could take
time one at any time and there's nothing of that
we're really going to do about it. So yeah, it's
pretty it's a pretty bad situation.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Well, I want to get to the piece he wrote,
the reason we had you on. But since we're on
this topic, you said they fired it off, we don't react.
What in what way could we react, you know? Or
should we react? According to you?
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Yeah, I mean we're in a situation right now where
US arm steals to Taiwan have been delayed. There's no explanation,
there's no rationale. They're overdue. You know. Most of the
Trump people say that the president doesn't want to anger
Jijingping before he invites Jijingping to come to the White
House in September, so he won't give Taiwan the arms.
(01:33):
Now that's a pretty big signal. Okay, that's a pretty
That's the main thing that people in Taiwan are watching.
And then in Taiwan you have this whole debate should we,
you know, buy things in the United States. Maybe we
should just get closer to China, and all of our
friends in Taiwan, all the people who are on the
side that we're on, which is against the Chinese, are
(01:53):
you know, we've left them twisting in the winds and
they're not so happy about it. So we're helping the
Taiwanese position in its mission to move Taiwan closer to Beijing,
and then when Beijing does something like this, you know, yeah,
I mean there are a lot of things you could do.
You could have a diplomatic reaction, you could have a
political reaction, you could have an economic reaction. You could
have a military reaction. But we're not doing any of those,
(02:16):
presumably everybody knows, because President Trump doesn't want to anger
his friends using thing before you invice him to the way.
That's the situation we're in, and that's why I think
it's not good.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
So your piece, the next phase in the US China
economic war is here. We've been expecting, or I've been
expecting the Great decoupling to happen at some point. I've
felt like it's inevitable. How could you possibly have your
economies intertwined the way China and the United States economies
have been for years if your sworn enemies fighting for
(02:46):
dominance of the planet. So where are we now, right?
Speaker 2 (02:51):
I mean, it's complicated, and I think you know, anyone
who says we're going to completely the couple with China
is not right. And anyone who says that we don't
have to couple at all is not right. It's the
major intellectual policy political choice of our time. The most
important thing we have to do, sort of as a government,
as a society is figure out where to draw those
(03:12):
lines where what are the things we have to protect
and what are the things we don't you know, like,
do we really want to import all of our bicycle
and toy manufacturing to hear or is that okay? You
know my view, that's okay, we can buy toys and
bicycles from China. Really no national security cost to that
that I could see. Right on the other hand, missile
technology and AI that kind of stuff we should probably
(03:35):
keep to ourselves. And then the things that were dependent
on them for okay, well, you know, if you remember
the pandemic and a few years ago, you remember that
they kept everything that we needed from the mask to
the ventilators to your name it, so the chemicals so
that make our medicines. There are certain things that we're
going to need to be able to produce without China
(03:56):
and technologies up there. The things that we need for
because we can't trust those guys is pretty clear. So
I think that's really what we're doing right now, is
we're trying to figure out what to protect and what
not to protect with us. Hard to do in a
good environment. We're not in a good environment because you know,
American politics is crazy, Chinese politics is crazy. The world's
on fire, and nobody really seems to be engaged in
(04:19):
like kind of like a sober kind of real, you know,
careful examination of like how to deal with this US
China relationship because everything's so crazy all the time.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
Well, as you wrote, the Pentagon has released just recently
this updated list of Chinese companies it claims are tied
to the People's Liberation Army. Well, all companies in China
are tied to the government. I mean, you're not allowed
to operate unless you are tied to the communist party
in some way, and the communist parties tied to the
(04:50):
army in a lot of ways. So I'm not exactly
sure what this list is. Well what does it mean?
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Yeah, so it's a perfect example. So the Pentagon comes
out with this report and they say, you know, all
these Chinese companies are linked to the Chinese military, we
probably shouldn't do business with them, especially the US military
shouldn't do business of them. But it's like pretty much
every Chinese company you know Ali Baba, the car companies,
buy d all the drug companies, this one called Wouji,
which like you know, it's all over America with like
(05:18):
medical technology. And you know, if you think about it,
like they've got a point, you know, like you of course,
the technology that the Chinese put into our systems is
creating a vulnerability for us. And of course anything we
find technological wise and Chinese is going to go right
to their military. It's true. At the same time, you know,
if we're gonna like not do business with all of
(05:40):
these companies, well there's gonna be a lot of Wall
Street guys and a lot of like US businesses that
are going to be out on their focuses because you know,
they're all they're all in bed with these guys. And
that's the real story here, is that the reason we
can't really protect ourselves from China is because of us,
because American investors, Wall Street guys, guys, not all of them,
(06:01):
but some of them, they're in bed with the Chinese.
They're in business with them, they're funding them, they're helping
them in the Chinese effort to beat us. You know,
the reason that China has gone from like a you know,
a backwoods kind of like rural society to like perhaps
the most technologically advanced country in the world in eighty years.
(06:22):
It's because of US. Americans paid for it. They stole
some of the technology, We sold them some, we gave
them some. And essentially the whole story of the US
China competition is them using us to beat us. And
that's the conundrum, that's the situation where in and that's
why it's such a blows people's minds because the biggest vulnerable,
(06:42):
the big we can leave, the weakest link in the
chain is actually us.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Right, So, you know, you're talking about various products companies
that you're okay with. You know, Shwin making bicycle. I
don't know if Swin makes their bicycles in China, but
they probably do it. Whatever it is, You're okay with that.
But do you think going forward it makes sense that
Apple one of the most valuable companies in the world
and their biggest product is the iPhone that they're made
(07:09):
in China. I mean, is that sustainable?
Speaker 2 (07:12):
I mean it is, but not for free. You know,
they're like, you could do anything, but not at no cost.
And the cost for Apple is that they are corporate
hostage of the Chinese Communist Party and they know it
and everybody knows it. So when the Chinese government comes
and knock and they say, okay, well now you know
you can't have any Hong Kong songs on Apple Music,
(07:33):
they're like okay, you know, like what are they going
to say? You know, and you know, oh, by the way,
that factory that you own in in China, you don't
own that. That's actually our factory, and we can tell
you how to run it. Well, there's nothing they can say.
So they're trying to again, not the couple, but the
risk move half of it to Andy to see what happens.
It's not gonna be pretty for the first few years,
but in the long term that's probably much better plan.
(07:56):
Like they're trying. So a lot of these American companies
are just corporate hostages. Some of them are doing it
more willingly than others, and in the end, it's all
going in one direction, which is that you know, any
American company that sort of makes that sort of devil's bargain,
which is like, Okay, we're gonna, you know, give you
all of our technology in exchange for access to your
(08:18):
market and your cheap labor. Eventually that that that doesn't
work out in the long run, they're going to steal
the technology and try to steal your business and often succeed.
But for some CEO in some corporate you know, office somewhere,
that's another guy's problem. That's the next ceo it's problem.
So that's why these things keep happening.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Fair to say that if you were going to start,
if Apple was going to open an eye It's first
iPhone factory, you wouldn't choose China today.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Well no, but I mean, I mean, let's give the
Chinese credit there. They have the best manufacturing system in
the world by far. They can out manufacture US times
a thousand, and they're manufacturing is good. The problem is
that the labors not as cheap as it used to be.
You know, they're actually pricing themselves out because you could
get cheaper. Do you want to make socks? Do you
want to make them in China? You make them in Vietnam.
(09:08):
It's much cheaper. But if you want to make you know,
some like some sort of widget that has some sort
of technology in it, China is by far the best
place to manufacture. So I get it. These American companies are,
they're in a bind. Like you know, when we put
all those paraffs on China, that's screwed all lots of
American small businesses, and that's unintended effect of our economic
war with China. So you got to you got to
(09:30):
do these things with a scalpel, not with a you know,
a buzzsaw. But at the same time, you know, I
see more and more CEOs, even more investors. Even the
investors are waking up, and some of the tech guys,
not all of them, but some of them and be like,
oh wait, this is not good for our business. It's
not so it's not good for the country. But maybe
they don't care about that. It's also not good for
the business because in the end, the way it works
(09:52):
is they squeeze you out of their market and then
they come to your market and take your lunch. And
it happens every single time.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
That's your really interesting stuff, Josh Rogan, be before we
let you go, and you don't have to hit me
with solid reporting on this. Just you're a smart guile
follows the world, and I wonder your opinion. Trump's meeting
with Zelensky tomorrow then he's talking to Putin on the phone.
Where are we with all that?
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Yeah, No, I mean I think the reporting actually is
pretty consistent. It's the same as what I'm hearing is that,
you know, the the Trump administration sort of washed its
hands of this whole Ukraine war. They tried for a while,
didn't work out. They're like, they just moved on. They
had other things to worry about because they only got
two guys doing all the negotiations, so they can't really
do them all it once. So they went to Venezuela
(10:38):
and then Iran. And now they think there's an opening.
They think there's an opening because Putin's getting is butt
kicked and he's now trying to get Trump to re engage.
Because every time Trump re engages, that's good for Russia
and bad for Ukraine. So the Ukrainians like where they're in.
They're finally winning. They're finally you know, through their own
grit and innovation, and you know, they created the best
(10:59):
drones the world, and you know, started to bring the
fight home to the Russians. And the worst thing that
could have to them is Trump gets on the phone
with Poot It's like, oh, how do we stop this?
How do we screw this over? And that's the fear
I think that, you know, the Ukrainians are they have
to like, you know, they're they'd love to stop the war,
but then they can't. You can't look at the Trump
Putin relationship and be like, oh, that's gonna be a
(11:20):
really good thing if you if this guy gets back.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
And I'm hoping that that Trump, because you know, he
likes to be on the winning side of things. If
that he gets convinced that Ukraine's winning and so he
wants to back the winning side. I hope that's what happens.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Yeah, And you know, and I hope I win the lottery,
you know. Yeah, I hope the Eagles win every Super
Bowl from that to the day I die. More likely
that's not going to happen. More likely Trump is gonna
meddle in a way that's horrible and then get bored.
And the best thing for the for the Ukrainians is
(11:54):
if Trump does absolutely nothing, if he gets bored.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
Yeah, that's that's probably a pretty good point. Always appreciate
your time, let them win. Yeah, that's a good one.
Lead global security analysts at Washington Post Intelligence, Josh Rogan
thanks for your time today.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Anything.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
Man.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
There was a report that came out in the New
York Times about the lifespan of Russian troops on the
front line, and it was something like twenty minutes you
get to the front line, you're likely to be dead
in minutes. That's how bad it is. We have to
talk about that later. God, it's gruesome. But I'll put
that off for a while. We'll talk about some other
(12:33):
stuff next. Heyety
We'd like to wait. Welcome to the show. Josh Rogan.
We're big fans of Josh. He is the global security
analyst of the Washington Post, and he writes, all kinds
are really interesting, Hey, Josh, interesting stuff. Hey Josh, we're
just talking about while we waited to get you on
that missile or rocket or whatever you want to call
it that China fired yesterday. How big a deal is that?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's a big deal, especially
if you're living in Taiwan right now, because what the
Chinese are doing is that they're slowly but surely proving
that they have the ability to take Taiwan at any
time of their choosing, and that there's nothing that we're
really going to do about it. And you know, we
call it like salami slicing, Like it's not that any
(00:43):
one rocket or any one maneuver is really changing the game,
per se. Is that the more that they do this
stuff and we don't react, the more that everybody in
the region knows that, like, you know, they could take
time one at any time and there's nothing of that
we're really going to do about it. So yeah, it's
pretty it's a pretty bad situation.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Well, I want to get to the piece he wrote,
the reason we had you on. But since we're on
this topic, you said they fired it off, we don't react.
What in what way could we react, you know? Or
should we react? According to you?
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Yeah, I mean we're in a situation right now where
US arm steals to Taiwan have been delayed. There's no explanation,
there's no rationale. They're overdue. You know. Most of the
Trump people say that the president doesn't want to anger
Jijingping before he invites Jijingping to come to the White
House in September, so he won't give Taiwan the arms.
(01:33):
Now that's a pretty big signal. Okay, that's a pretty
That's the main thing that people in Taiwan are watching.
And then in Taiwan you have this whole debate should we,
you know, buy things in the United States. Maybe we
should just get closer to China, and all of our
friends in Taiwan, all the people who are on the
side that we're on, which is against the Chinese, are
(01:53):
you know, we've left them twisting in the winds and
they're not so happy about it. So we're helping the
Taiwanese position in its mission to move Taiwan closer to Beijing,
and then when Beijing does something like this, you know, yeah,
I mean there are a lot of things you could do.
You could have a diplomatic reaction, you could have a
political reaction, you could have an economic reaction. You could
have a military reaction. But we're not doing any of those,
(02:16):
presumably everybody knows, because President Trump doesn't want to anger
his friends using thing before you invice him to the way.
That's the situation we're in, and that's why I think
it's not good.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
So your piece, the next phase in the US China
economic war is here. We've been expecting, or I've been
expecting the Great decoupling to happen at some point. I've
felt like it's inevitable. How could you possibly have your
economies intertwined the way China and the United States economies
have been for years if your sworn enemies fighting for
(02:46):
dominance of the planet. So where are we now, right?
Speaker 2 (02:51):
I mean, it's complicated, and I think you know, anyone
who says we're going to completely the couple with China
is not right. And anyone who says that we don't
have to couple at all is not right. It's the
major intellectual policy political choice of our time. The most
important thing we have to do, sort of as a government,
as a society is figure out where to draw those
(03:12):
lines where what are the things we have to protect
and what are the things we don't you know, like,
do we really want to import all of our bicycle
and toy manufacturing to hear or is that okay? You
know my view, that's okay, we can buy toys and
bicycles from China. Really no national security cost to that
that I could see. Right on the other hand, missile
technology and AI that kind of stuff we should probably
(03:35):
keep to ourselves. And then the things that were dependent
on them for okay, well, you know, if you remember
the pandemic and a few years ago, you remember that
they kept everything that we needed from the mask to
the ventilators to your name it, so the chemicals so
that make our medicines. There are certain things that we're
going to need to be able to produce without China
(03:56):
and technologies up there. The things that we need for
because we can't trust those guys is pretty clear. So
I think that's really what we're doing right now, is
we're trying to figure out what to protect and what
not to protect with us. Hard to do in a
good environment. We're not in a good environment because you know,
American politics is crazy, Chinese politics is crazy. The world's
on fire, and nobody really seems to be engaged in
(04:19):
like kind of like a sober kind of real, you know,
careful examination of like how to deal with this US
China relationship because everything's so crazy all the time.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
Well, as you wrote, the Pentagon has released just recently
this updated list of Chinese companies it claims are tied
to the People's Liberation Army. Well, all companies in China
are tied to the government. I mean, you're not allowed
to operate unless you are tied to the communist party
in some way, and the communist parties tied to the
(04:50):
army in a lot of ways. So I'm not exactly
sure what this list is. Well what does it mean?
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Yeah, so it's a perfect example. So the Pentagon comes
out with this report and they say, you know, all
these Chinese companies are linked to the Chinese military, we
probably shouldn't do business with them, especially the US military
shouldn't do business of them. But it's like pretty much
every Chinese company you know Ali Baba, the car companies,
buy d all the drug companies, this one called Wouji,
which like you know, it's all over America with like
(05:18):
medical technology. And you know, if you think about it,
like they've got a point, you know, like you of course,
the technology that the Chinese put into our systems is
creating a vulnerability for us. And of course anything we
find technological wise and Chinese is going to go right
to their military. It's true. At the same time, you know,
if we're gonna like not do business with all of
(05:40):
these companies, well there's gonna be a lot of Wall
Street guys and a lot of like US businesses that
are going to be out on their focuses because you know,
they're all they're all in bed with these guys. And
that's the real story here, is that the reason we
can't really protect ourselves from China is because of us,
because American investors, Wall Street guys, guys, not all of them,
(06:01):
but some of them, they're in bed with the Chinese.
They're in business with them, they're funding them, they're helping
them in the Chinese effort to beat us. You know,
the reason that China has gone from like a you know,
a backwoods kind of like rural society to like perhaps
the most technologically advanced country in the world in eighty years.
(06:22):
It's because of US. Americans paid for it. They stole
some of the technology, We sold them some, we gave
them some. And essentially the whole story of the US
China competition is them using us to beat us. And
that's the conundrum, that's the situation where in and that's
why it's such a blows people's minds because the biggest vulnerable,
(06:42):
the big we can leave, the weakest link in the
chain is actually us.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Right, So, you know, you're talking about various products companies
that you're okay with. You know, Shwin making bicycle. I
don't know if Swin makes their bicycles in China, but
they probably do it. Whatever it is, You're okay with that.
But do you think going forward it makes sense that
Apple one of the most valuable companies in the world
and their biggest product is the iPhone that they're made
(07:09):
in China. I mean, is that sustainable?
Speaker 2 (07:12):
I mean it is, but not for free. You know,
they're like, you could do anything, but not at no cost.
And the cost for Apple is that they are corporate
hostage of the Chinese Communist Party and they know it
and everybody knows it. So when the Chinese government comes
and knock and they say, okay, well now you know
you can't have any Hong Kong songs on Apple Music,
(07:33):
they're like okay, you know, like what are they going
to say? You know, and you know, oh, by the way,
that factory that you own in in China, you don't
own that. That's actually our factory, and we can tell
you how to run it. Well, there's nothing they can say.
So they're trying to again, not the couple, but the
risk move half of it to Andy to see what happens.
It's not gonna be pretty for the first few years,
but in the long term that's probably much better plan.
(07:56):
Like they're trying. So a lot of these American companies
are just corporate hostages. Some of them are doing it
more willingly than others, and in the end, it's all
going in one direction, which is that you know, any
American company that sort of makes that sort of devil's bargain,
which is like, Okay, we're gonna, you know, give you
all of our technology in exchange for access to your
(08:18):
market and your cheap labor. Eventually that that that doesn't
work out in the long run, they're going to steal
the technology and try to steal your business and often succeed.
But for some CEO in some corporate you know, office somewhere,
that's another guy's problem. That's the next ceo it's problem.
So that's why these things keep happening.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Fair to say that if you were going to start,
if Apple was going to open an eye It's first
iPhone factory, you wouldn't choose China today.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
Well no, but I mean, I mean, let's give the
Chinese credit there. They have the best manufacturing system in
the world by far. They can out manufacture US times
a thousand, and they're manufacturing is good. The problem is
that the labors not as cheap as it used to be.
You know, they're actually pricing themselves out because you could
get cheaper. Do you want to make socks? Do you
want to make them in China? You make them in Vietnam.
(09:08):
It's much cheaper. But if you want to make you know,
some like some sort of widget that has some sort
of technology in it, China is by far the best
place to manufacture. So I get it. These American companies are,
they're in a bind. Like you know, when we put
all those paraffs on China, that's screwed all lots of
American small businesses, and that's unintended effect of our economic
war with China. So you got to you got to
(09:30):
do these things with a scalpel, not with a you know,
a buzzsaw. But at the same time, you know, I
see more and more CEOs, even more investors. Even the
investors are waking up, and some of the tech guys,
not all of them, but some of them and be like,
oh wait, this is not good for our business. It's
not so it's not good for the country. But maybe
they don't care about that. It's also not good for
the business because in the end, the way it works
(09:52):
is they squeeze you out of their market and then
they come to your market and take your lunch. And
it happens every single time.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
That's your really interesting stuff, Josh Rogan, be before we
let you go, and you don't have to hit me
with solid reporting on this. Just you're a smart guile
follows the world, and I wonder your opinion. Trump's meeting
with Zelensky tomorrow then he's talking to Putin on the phone.
Where are we with all that?
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Yeah, No, I mean I think the reporting actually is
pretty consistent. It's the same as what I'm hearing is that,
you know, the the Trump administration sort of washed its
hands of this whole Ukraine war. They tried for a while,
didn't work out. They're like, they just moved on. They
had other things to worry about because they only got
two guys doing all the negotiations, so they can't really
do them all it once. So they went to Venezuela
(10:38):
and then Iran. And now they think there's an opening.
They think there's an opening because Putin's getting is butt
kicked and he's now trying to get Trump to re engage.
Because every time Trump re engages, that's good for Russia
and bad for Ukraine. So the Ukrainians like where they're in.
They're finally winning. They're finally you know, through their own
grit and innovation, and you know, they created the best
(10:59):
drones the world, and you know, started to bring the
fight home to the Russians. And the worst thing that
could have to them is Trump gets on the phone
with Poot It's like, oh, how do we stop this?
How do we screw this over? And that's the fear
I think that, you know, the Ukrainians are they have
to like, you know, they're they'd love to stop the war,
but then they can't. You can't look at the Trump
Putin relationship and be like, oh, that's gonna be a
(11:20):
really good thing if you if this guy gets back.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
And I'm hoping that that Trump, because you know, he
likes to be on the winning side of things. If
that he gets convinced that Ukraine's winning and so he
wants to back the winning side. I hope that's what happens.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Yeah, And you know, and I hope I win the lottery,
you know. Yeah, I hope the Eagles win every Super
Bowl from that to the day I die. More likely
that's not going to happen. More likely Trump is gonna
meddle in a way that's horrible and then get bored.
And the best thing for the for the Ukrainians is
(11:54):
if Trump does absolutely nothing, if he gets bored.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
Yeah, that's that's probably a pretty good point. Always appreciate
your time, let them win. Yeah, that's a good one.
Lead global security analysts at Washington Post Intelligence, Josh Rogan
thanks for your time today.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Anything.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
Man.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
There was a report that came out in the New
York Times about the lifespan of Russian troops on the
front line, and it was something like twenty minutes you
get to the front line, you're likely to be dead
in minutes. That's how bad it is. We have to
talk about that later. God, it's gruesome. But I'll put
that off for a while. We'll talk about some other
(12:33):
stuff next. Heyety
Hosts And Creators
Joe Getty
Jack Armstrong
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