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June 2, 2026 14 mins

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Fifty five KR and see the talk station.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Hey thirty here fifty five KR, see the talk station.
Tuesday means a segment. I'm always looking forward to the
Daniel Davis Deep Dive. That's the name of the podcast.
Find Daniel Davis wherever you get your podcasts and check
out the retired lieutenant colonel has to say about a
variety of from matters military related, of course, another day
to talk about the situation between the United States, Iran,
and of course Israel and Hezbala, because they all seem

(00:24):
to be bald up into one. Welcome back, Daniel Davis.
It's always a pleasure to have you on.

Speaker 1 (00:29):
Always great to be here, Brian, thanks for having me back.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
A very interesting day on off, on off. Usually it
comes over spurt your washerants. Repeat. We've been joking about this.
One day, we're talking about negotiation. A few days go by,
the negotiations are off, bombs are going to start dropping,
then we're back at the table. So this seems to
be ultimately a delaying tactic. I get the impression Donald
Trump really does not want to start kinetic action, and
I know there's reasons for that which we can get to.

(00:52):
But yesterday he said, there's a little glitch. But I
turned that around very quickly. As you probably noticed earlier,
I spoke with Hezbala and I said no shoeing. A
talk with Bbe and they said no shooting, and they
both stopped shooting at each other.

Speaker 1 (01:04):
And then.

Speaker 2 (01:06):
Hours later as Ballas starts shooting at Israel again. So
it didn't work out real well. We never do start
launching a kinetic action. And you have proven yourself right.
I do believe, because I know a lot of people
were a little upset with you saying, you know, the
Iranians have a lot of missiles and a lot of
drones and they can do serious damage if we try
to open the straight of horror moves. The American military

(01:28):
would have opened this strait of horror mood it moves
if it had the ability to do so. Is that
a true statement there at the end, Daniel Davis.

Speaker 1 (01:36):
Oh, yeah, it for sure is.

Speaker 3 (01:38):
And I get puzzled sometimes while people get aggravated at me,
and I've seen it on my own shows several times,
like Fellows, I'm just telling you what the reality is
on the ground.

Speaker 1 (01:48):
If you don't like it, you know, take it up.

Speaker 3 (01:49):
With Iran or US or Israel, et cetera, because that's
where the fundamentals exist. And listen, yeah, look, we wouldn't
have even gone to a ceasefire if we had the
ability to complete the job and to bring them militarily
under submission.

Speaker 1 (02:04):
I mean, it would have been insane to do anything else.

Speaker 3 (02:06):
There's a reason why we accepted the cease fire because
we realized we were running too low on missiles and
they had too many left that we couldn't take out.
And none of that has changed, And in fact the
only thing that has changed is that they have more
missiles now that they had because they continue to manufacture
them underground where we can't reach, and they have cleared
off a lot of the tunnels that we blocked up

(02:26):
with some of the missiles where we could hit those
have now been opened back up. So we're in a
less good position than we were before because our inventories
are lower and we just don't have enough to be
able to hit that target set. That's the problem.

Speaker 2 (02:40):
Well, in the Iranians are dealing with an economy that's
tanking and catering. I know, inflation has gone through the
roof of the running. People are probably struggling mightily, although
I know the folks in charge really don't care what
happens to the people. They're religious fundamentalists and they're probably
eating well people be damned. They obviously are willing to
murder their own people. So this idea that we're going
to have some internal evolution to overthrowing the Iranian Revolutionary

(03:02):
Guard doesn't seem to be manifesting itself. So we can
wait around to see if that ultimately happens based upon
basically a starving population. But we still have We still
have their ports closed, they have the Straight of Horror
moves close. So is this are we in a battle
of attrition?

Speaker 3 (03:18):
Well, we kind of are, though I would I would
take a bit issue with the characterization there. The Iranian
leadership does care about their people, and the people aren't
just like held captive. I mean, they're protesting almost every
night in support of what their country is doing, holding rallies,
et cetera.

Speaker 1 (03:32):
Because they view this as.

Speaker 3 (03:34):
Everybody against them, and even those and I've talked to
some of them on by show, even those who were
adamantly opposed to the regime, now then they are supporting them.
The whole rally around the flag thing because they're being
attacked and bombed, et cetera during the active phase, and
they're being blockaded right now, and for sure they definitely
are because they've told me this as well.

Speaker 1 (03:53):
The inflection is through the roof.

Speaker 3 (03:55):
They're shortages of a lot of things. But they view
this as an existential threat you as you point out there,
and therefore they are used to dealing with this. They
have done with this before because of sanctions, because of
the war against them with Iraq, et cetera. So they
know how to suffer and they feel like this is
an imposed situation. So they'll suffer for a long time.
I think, longer than we would be able to, especially

(04:16):
if those blockades remain in effect.

Speaker 2 (04:18):
Well, two components of everyone is against them. Well, with
the exception of I think what we probably thought, and
I'm guessing you probably have much better information than me,
that the regional Arab nations would have come to our
side and aid and defense, and yet that never happened.
We've talked about this before, Daniel Davis. They have not
because they realized that much like trying to send ships

(04:39):
through the Strait of Horror Mouz, the minute that something
goes wrong or they side with the Americans, the Iranian
is going to start launching missiles at them like Kuwait
received the other day. I mean, so they're not They're
step They're holding back, and I think it seems to
me becoming more critical of the United States action of this.
Do the Iranian people along the lines of what you said,
take inspiration from the the failures of both Russia and

(05:01):
the United States in Afghanistan, Like Lixen, we can hold
out now those people that you know, those two countries
were in Afghanistan for more than two decades and look
who had to leave, turning tail and running away without
accomplishing anything. We the Iran Runtian people can do that
as well.

Speaker 1 (05:16):
Yes they do.

Speaker 3 (05:17):
They actually have sought that example many times because they do.
They feel like just like the Taliban outlasted us, just
like the muja Hadeen Alasta, the Soviets, just like the
continue on with Hezbola, with Hamas and the Houthis have
they have outlasted everything in the US and Israel has
brought to bear and they still remained viable. They say

(05:38):
we can do the same thing because they see the
resources on our side are are not inexhaustible, and the
issues especially you point out why the gold Fair of
regimes haven't been more active in helping us because they
realized the same thing I talked about at the top
of this. They see that there's no military solution and
we can't knock out their missial capability. Therefore, if we
go back to war, it's gonna get even worse because

(06:00):
they can't be defended. We couldn't stop the missiles from
falling on the Gulf Arab regimes, and they wouldn't happen
the next time either, and it would cause permanent damage
instead of the partial damage it has so far. So
they just want this thing to be over and get
back to making money and selling.

Speaker 2 (06:14):
Oil well over at this point, I mean, if we just,
let's say, theoretically pull the plug, or you know, maybe
it's an election in November and Donald Trump loses the
House and the Senate, they pass the word Powers resolution
that says pull the plug completely, that leaves the Iranians
and control the straight of horror moves, and they're going
to work that to their advantage, because that's what they're
trying to do right now. I mean, it's a it's obviously,
we as we in the entire world, have learned a vital,

(06:36):
critical piece of waterway there.

Speaker 3 (06:39):
Well, listen to the Iranians have been nothing but absolutely
consistent on this point. They say, we will never ever
give up control the Straight of Horror moves. They said,
whether it's negotiated settlement, whether you walk away, or anything else,
there is no scenario where we give away control over
the Straight of Horror moves.

Speaker 1 (06:56):
I mean, they've codified it into a system.

Speaker 3 (06:59):
Now they're working with the country of Blah because the
territorial waters overlap in the middle of the strait. So
they say, no, that's it, this is just the way
it's going to be forward, So work it out however
you want. Now that being said, they still need the
work to come to an end because they need the
blockade on their stuff to come off, and so they
realize they're going to have to negotiate. And this morning
there's been a lot of statements from Iatola's, from several

(07:22):
religious leaders and government leaders emphasizing to the people this
is in Persian, saying hey, look, I know a lot
of people don't want us to negotiate, but we have
to because that's just how you manufacture power.

Speaker 1 (07:33):
It has to be both strength and negotiations that we
got to do both.

Speaker 3 (07:36):
So even if you may not lock everything, we're going
to have to do it implying that they're ready to
make some.

Speaker 1 (07:41):
Concessions if they can get the things that they have
to have to have.

Speaker 3 (07:45):
But here's the big problem. Two of the things they
have to have are control the straight and the Israel
has to stop its war against Lebanon. And that seems
to be the longest pull in the tent.

Speaker 2 (07:54):
Huh well, theoretically, and I appreciate the complications involved in
this suggestion. Hey, one of my listeners talk about all
these twenty years supply contract with various countries in the
Middle East are coming to an end, and these the
folks that are part of those contracts, the countries that
want to purchase the oil have obvious options in the
world to go out, like, for example, the United States,

(08:17):
who which is a washing and oil. We've now got
the Venezuela and oil production going on that's going to
be refined, so that's a source of oil. Are there
enough alternative sources that we could just say, you know what,
We've been dealing with this stuff for longer than I've
been alive since World War Two. We're just going to
wash our hands of this. There's enough oil in the world.
This isn't an OPEC era dominated era. Fine, go ahead,

(08:37):
you know, close the straight up horror moves. We don't
need it anything.

Speaker 3 (08:40):
Yeah, there's a lot of misunderstanding about how the oil
industry works. That is not the case. There is not
plenty of oil. We are not a Washington oil A
lot of people aren't aware. We are a net oil importer.
So we have to import. I want to say it's
like three to four million barrels a day more than
we export because we export a lot of things, but
we also have to import. And you talk about the

(09:01):
Venezuelan oil for example, that is heavy crew which can
only be refined in a few places that it can
only be turned into certain products. We have light sweet
crude which can be refined into like gasoline, but not
into things like diesel et cetera.

Speaker 1 (09:15):
Jet fuel.

Speaker 3 (09:16):
That's one of the biggest productions out of the Middle
East that there is in the world. It's a huge
percentage of it, etc. So it's not just the total
amount of oil, but it's what kind of oil and
what does it turn into that feeds the global economy.
And there's so much incredible important things out of the
Gulf itself, like fertilizer thirty five percent of it, aluminum, helium,

(09:37):
several other things that you don't normally think of when
you think of oil or natural gas, but those things
are all blocked off. So it is critical and devastating
to the global economy. Every day this continues to go on.

Speaker 2 (09:49):
Well, that's why I ask you the question, Daniel. I mean,
I think people think you've made a certain measure of
credibility beyond me, and it can explain a little bit better.
It's not just going to be all rainbows and puppy
dogs and unicors, because we're going to get all these
oil contracts. Oil is a global market, and even if
we decide not to do business in the Middle East ourselves,
the rest of the world has to deal with it,
and the price of oil will be impacted by the

(10:10):
global demand and supply. So I hate to have to
ask this question, where does this leave us, Daniel, Well,
it leads.

Speaker 3 (10:20):
Us in a position to where, for the first time,
I think in our lifetimes, we have a major international
crisis problem. Whatever you want to call it that we
cannot solve with our power because we want to just
impose our will and say, look, either you do this
or we're going to blow you up. Well, we've tried that,
and they can endure that blowing up, and for the
first time, they can also fire back in the ways

(10:42):
that we can't defend against. We've never been in this situation.
So we're going to have to either do something and
I know a lot of people are going to hate this,
they definitely do in.

Speaker 1 (10:50):
The White House.

Speaker 3 (10:50):
We're either going to have to concede something to them
in order to get something from them, and they're open
to that, or we're gonna have.

Speaker 1 (10:57):
To just say we all right, we're going to walk away.

Speaker 3 (10:59):
Because if we say all right, get it, I don't
care you didn't give me what I wanted, we're going
to go back to a war. Then we're gonna just
devastate our economy, the global economy, because they have the
capacity beyond our desires, to strike back in ways we
can't endure. And that's the problem that too few people understand.
We don't get to just call the shots this time.

(11:20):
We're going to have to negotiate, and if we want
to get something. This time, we're going to have to
give something.

Speaker 2 (11:26):
Seems to be a collective failure of the decision makers
leading up to this initial attack to contemplate the complexity
or do you think that they actually factored this in
the equation and thought that that initial strike on the
thirty plus military leaders was going to decapitate the regime
a la Maduro. Gross over calculation on that, as it

(11:46):
turns out. But are we just being Hindsight's twenty twenty
or was this information readily available to the decision makers?

Speaker 1 (11:52):
It was definitely available.

Speaker 3 (11:53):
I've talked to Joe Kennet, who resigned as the number
two the OD and I, the Director of National Intelligence,
just couple of days ago, and reiterate. He reiterated that
to me, he said every bit of this was was
pleading to his people inside the White House that were
pleading with the President that it was likely that they
were going to take the straight of horror moonies, that
we couldn't knock out their missile factories, and then it

(12:14):
was going to definitely.

Speaker 1 (12:15):
You know, harm our national economy in ways that.

Speaker 3 (12:18):
We can't rectify easily or quickly, and that the people
weren't going to rise up against the Ietola and the
decapitation wasn't going to take out their system of government.
We told them all of those things ahead of time.
But there was another group that says, no, no, no,
they're wrong.

Speaker 1 (12:32):
Actually it will it'll be like Maduro. It'll be like Venezuela.

Speaker 3 (12:35):
As soon as you take out these guys, they'll just
fall apart. They've never been more weak than they are,
and et cetera. Turned out that that was actually just
a myth and a claim that these people who wanted
the war were selling it. They were never weaker than
they had been in all these years. They were as
strong as they had ever been. It was kind of
just a normal state. They weren't that weak. So President
Trump was sold to bill of goods by a lot

(12:56):
of people who should know better, and unfortunately he listened
to them instead of the group that.

Speaker 1 (13:01):
I just described.

Speaker 2 (13:02):
Finding ourselves in a quagmire. Hmm, snafu, Charlie Fox Trot.
Throw it into some category. It's reality. It's cold water.
We're gonna it's cold water reality, but it's reality. Nonetheless,
you know, I appreciate you. You're just pointing, putting a
point on everything, and providing us with all the information

(13:25):
we need to know. Because we seem to be in
a very major, major problem. They have to put one
of the l column, Daniel Davis, and I hate to
have to say that out loud on a two hundred
and fifteth anniversary.

Speaker 1 (13:33):
You know, like a businessman man, sometimes you got to
put an L in there.

Speaker 3 (13:36):
If it's a losing proposition, don't dig deeper, don't throw
more money down the pit, cut it off, say it's
a bad situation, and move on to something else, which
we can do.

Speaker 2 (13:46):
Yeah, and looming behind that reality the sand situation with
regard to our arms, as you mentioned a moment ago.
I mean, we have a finite amount of arms. We've
used a lot of them, and there may be future
battles to wage, which is problematic for the United States
of America. Daniel Davis Deep Dive find your podcast where
you are find him on where you find your podcast.
We'll do this again next Tuesday. Maybe we'll get some
good news. I keep saying that, Daniel, but I can

(14:08):
like to I can hope again.

Speaker 3 (14:10):
Fact that it runs is sand this morning telling their people, hey,
we need to have to negotiated settlement means that there
is a window open there, so maybe nixt Tuesday we'll
be able to go through.

Speaker 2 (14:18):
It Fingers crossed. Daniel Davis, thank you so much. Have
a great week between now and then, Sir A forty
four here fifty five KRC detalk station. Don't go away.
We're gonna be talking about our sc expert, good Man
Todd came from share Facts. They got a zero closing
cost option for you, and we got a shred data
gives you some details about that. That'll be next

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