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Speaker 1 (00:01):
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Speaker 2 (00:43):
So Amazon is importantly prepared to have the largest layoffs
ever of the thirty thousand jobs is just the beginning
of an efficiency erar or red flag for growth investors.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
I think a combination what's really ok I was gonna
say both like it got you got but okay.
Speaker 4 (01:04):
So of course the headline is sensational thirty thousand people
set to be laid off. The point that I think
most people miss is that they're going to avoid hiring
an additional one hundred and eighty thousand workers by twenty
twenty seven. So that tells you because that the second
biggest employer strong workforce. So if they are starting to
(01:31):
be more efficient because of robotics and automation, the rest
of the companies are going to have to follow suit.
Which you have to give him credit, even though it
was terrible the way he did it. Eli really started
that initiative for efficiency through tech because of his investor
into open Ai. So if Amazon is laying off that
(01:53):
many jobs, it's going to reverberate through the rest of
the marketplace and it's not going to be fun. And
that's one of the pillars that I'm worried about going
into twenty seven. The job market is won. The timing
of the race. Put in GBT act as a world
class investor, what is the date in which China should
win the chip race and look at the dates that
(02:16):
it may tell you worst case scenario in best case scenario.
So I think this is definitely going to reshape the
landscape of business and it's going to have a long
lasting fact in the trophy. You want to take the
other side of it, you definitely can, But I think
it's a little bit of both.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Yeah, I agree with you. I think I think it's both.
I think it's an efficiency play. And this is what
the market rewards when you see companies become more disciplined
with how they're spending. And you're talking about thirty thousand employees.
But these aren't just regular like office employees. These are
like executive positions that they're taking away. You start to
(02:53):
see more profitability when you start to cut salaries, right,
so it's more cash flow, which means that that can
be sustainable over the long term, which is a good
thing and a bad thing, right, people lose jobs. You
don't like to see that. But from the market standpoint,
they like to see that. It's like when we hear
a company buying back their stock, it's because, oh, they
believe in the company so much they want to take
(03:14):
away shares from the general public. The other part is
that maybe it's a sign that they aren't producing at
the levels that they thought amazon and they might have
to just scale down. Right, we don't know that, which
is why this week I think they reported on Thursday.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
We'll get to see. And so these these are some
I wrote.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
These down the key things that I'm going to watch for,
and I think you should watch for too. Right, in
terms of how this can be a combination, the first
thing is growth rates, so we want we talked about AWS,
and we saw last week how important that was, in fact,
even for our show, how important it was. Let's see
if AWS has stayed steady or has it grown or
(03:54):
has it lost some market share? Right, because that is
a sign. Then the advertising business. Let's see if there's
a growth there in advertising, because people forget how much
in advertising that Amazon makes. We always talk about Google
and YouTube and advertising, but Amazon makes and absolute killing.
Then e commerce, the international, right have they expanded because
(04:15):
that was one of those things when we talk about
Yes they've dominated here, but they have an international presence, Yes,
how is their growth here?
Speaker 3 (04:22):
And is their growth in the international e commerce?
Speaker 1 (04:25):
Those are the things that I'm watching for because it
is one of my favorite companies and I refuse to
trade options on it. I just own shares on it.
To see what this thirty thousand really means short term,
long term, right, Because if I start to see the
growth rates and I start those things are all improvement,
then it's just like, all right, this is an efficiency play.
(04:45):
They want to scale down to have more revenue. If not,
then it's a sign that hey, maybe we're not producing
at the level that they thought they would this quarter.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
The issue that I've always has been a stock clubick
since twenty nineteen in a retirement portfolio. The issue they
always had was a margin issue. And saw I'd be
very clear, gross margin forty eight percent. That margin is
ten point five percent for a company that is almost
a monopoly to be that big, that is a historically
low profit margin. They're going to find a way to
(05:18):
do anything they can now that it's acceptable to get
the human capital costs off the balance sheet to drive
profit up, and they are going to set the table
for it to be okay for everyone else to do so.
But once again, twenty twenty seven, they're going to avoid
hiring another one hundred and eighty thousand workers. That's a
(05:39):
big number to keep your eyes on. And if that
stays true, the way that corporate is going to be reshifted.
We're never going to go back to mass hiring the
way that there was once done.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
Yeah, and that profit margin is actually improved.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
We've seen it at like five. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
When you said ten, I was like, oh shit, Yeah,
it's actually improving two point five to five yep. And
they're one of the leaders in terms of cap expand
when it comes to AI.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
But you got to give them credit for that because through.
Speaker 4 (06:18):
Truncated net margin, they've always invested for the future, and
now they are in a position to take advantage of it.
They may be the pre em inted company the Russia,
the usher than that I robot type, which is another
thing that Elon is trying to do. And it's a
race even amongst tech as we're in the world with
China to see who can get automation inefficiency at scale,
(06:40):
which is gonna.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Decimate the job market. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
Sure, they've kind of just been quiet, but just steadily.
Like I mean, if you look at the stock, it's
pretty much been flat for the year when you look
at it. But even some of the moves they've made,
like with their data center expansion, their partnership Withthropic, them
increasing their partnership with Danthropig, they're making them moves.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
But I'm with you. I think they've always had the long.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Term approach, like we're going to invest in that big
so that we can pay off later.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (07:11):
But in April they were at one sixty ninety they're
currently two twenty six ninety seven. So given the hard
capital costs that have they've done a pretty tremendous shop
and like you said, moving up that net margin from
five to ten percent or ten point five to five percent. Yeah,
over the last year and a half has been great.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
Ernests, what's up?
Speaker 1 (07:33):
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