All Episodes

July 17, 2025 15 mins

Friday 18 July 2025

A surprise jump in the unemployment rate opens the way for an interest rate cut next month.

And more, including:

  • AUSTRAC to focus on cash and digital currencies
  • Superannuation funds have another good financial year
  • How science is eradicating genetic diseases

Join our free daily newsletter here.

And don’t miss the latest episode of How Do They Afford That? - this week, it's all about debt consolidation. Get the episode from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.

Find out more: https://fearandgreed.com.au

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark as Played
Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business News you can use.
A surprise jump in the unemployment rate opens the way
for an interest rate cut next month. Superannuation funds returned
more than ten percent for the last financial year, making
it three strong years in a row.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Plus.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
How science is eradicating genetic diseases. Ostrak provides its hit
list of sectors it's keeping a close eye on, and
pandered diplomacy takes center stage on the Prime Minister's final
day in China. It's Friday, the eighteenth of July twenty
twenty five. I'm Adam Lang and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

Speaker 3 (00:39):
Good morning, Adam has always something for everyone.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
This morning, it's a.

Speaker 1 (00:43):
Smaugus board Sean and the main story this morning. The
unemployment rate has risen to its highest level in almost
four years, opening the way for an interest rate cut
when the Reserve Bank Board meets next month.

Speaker 3 (00:55):
The unemployment rate hit four point three percent in June
from four point one percent in May. It is still low,
but there's an upward trend. According to the Australian Bureau
of Statistics. The last time the unemployment rate was this
high was during the COVID pandemic, although to be fair,
it did spend pretty much all of the pre pandemic
forty years above that level. There were just two thousand

(01:17):
new jobs created last month, world below expectations. The composition
was poor. Thirty eight thousand full time jobs were lost,
forty thousand part time roles were created. The net effect
those two thousand roles. If you dig into the numbers,
they suggest a broad weakening in the labor market, no
doubt about it. Annually, jobs growth is running at about
two percent, which is below the growth in the labor force. Also,

(01:39):
measures of underemployment have shifted higher. Having said all that,
the Reserve Bank is still worried that the labor market
is tight, and it is no doubt about that. The
Reserve Bank's worried high unit labor costs and subdued productivity
could stoke inflation again, and that's why it's been hesitant
to cut rates.

Speaker 1 (02:00):
I'd sean boil it all down, all of that labor
market information. What does it mean for interest rates?

Speaker 3 (02:06):
It is very, very very I go the three varies
the triple very likely that the Reserve Bank will cut rates
when it meets on the twelfth of August. Mind you,
we said that before the last meeting two weeks ago.
After that meeting, Governor Michelle Bullock stressed that the unexpected
pause in cutting rates was more about timing, not the

(02:28):
direction of rates. What we know is that underlying inflation
continues to moderate, Household demand is soft, and there's downside
risks from what's happening overseas, and the employment market is
doing pretty much what the Reserve Bank has forecast. The
main risk to a rate cut is a surprisingly high
inflation reading when the June quarter figures come out at

(02:51):
the end of the month. Now we have two of
those three months already, and it is unlikely to be
a surprisingly high figure. Judging by the financial market reaction
yesterday to the labor force figures, they think a rate
cut is coming. The Aussie dollar dropped immediately, falling under
sixty five US cents, and the ASX jumped. So, Adam,

(03:12):
I reckon just like I said two weeks ago, I
reckon a sure thing. Well not, there's no such thing
as a certainty in monetary policy or racing. However, certainly
hot favorite near certainty.

Speaker 1 (03:25):
Well, you know, maybe you and ninety percent of economists
were on the same track, Sean and I was too,
so we weren't alone. Okay, So the share market rose yesterday.
That's after hitting a new high on Tuesday and then
it's worst day in months on Wednesday. Markets seemed to
be rather fickle at the moment.

Speaker 3 (03:43):
When aren't they, Adam, When aren't they very true? They
are fickle, and I suppose why all this data matters
mostly move scene to reflect what's going on in the US. Yesterday,
the S and p ASX two hundred hit a record
closing high, up nearly one percent to eight thousand, six
hundred and thirty nine points. That came on back of
that lay before statum and hopes of a rate cut.

(04:05):
The banks and interstrate sensitive stocks did best. Commonwealth Bank
and and Zed, Westpac and Goodman Group all jumped more
than one percent. Transurban and Zero both up two percent,
while computer share finished three percent higher. The gold stocks
and retailers tended to underperform.

Speaker 1 (04:20):
Sean and While we're talking market, superannuation funds have had
another very good financial year, with the median Growth fund
returning ten point five percent for the fiscal twenty twenty
five year. That's better than the previous two very good years,
and it means superannuation funds have now returned more than
thirty percent over three years.

Speaker 3 (04:39):
Happy days. The Median growth fund has sixty eighty percent
of its portfolio invested in growth assets stuff like equities.
Thanks to a near fourteen percent rise in international equities
and a fourteen percent rise in local equities, growth funds
have done very, very well. Infrastructure is also a key
asset of growth funds. That asset class did well also,

(05:02):
while private equity gains were around nine and a half
percent according to chant West, more defensive assets such as
bonds had a pretty good year. Local bonds are up
nearly six seven percent, international bonds about five and a
half percent. Now, super is a long term investment, so
it's always better to think about that over the long
term ten years, let's say or more. Growth funds, according
to chant West, have returned seven point two percent per

(05:26):
annum over the past decade. High growth at eight point
four percent, more conservative balanced funds are at five point
nine percent. All in all, when you have a growth
rate of two three four percent, you were getting fantastic
real returns in your super and have been getting great
real returns in your super free years.

Speaker 1 (05:44):
We'll have all of those details and more in the
Fear and Greed newsletter this morning, So if you haven't already,
make sure you've signed up at Fearngreed dot com dot
au and we'll be back in a moment with the
rest of the day's business news.

Speaker 2 (06:02):
Sean.

Speaker 1 (06:03):
The Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi and his fiance Jody Hayden
spent their last full day in chiny yesterday checking out
a bunch of pandas.

Speaker 3 (06:11):
Pander diplomacy is actually real thing, Adam. The way you
said that, I thought there was a little sark.

Speaker 2 (06:17):
Little skepticism.

Speaker 3 (06:18):
Yes, So Beijing gifted pandas to the US in nineteen
seventy two, after Richard Nixon's visit. It was kind of
like a foreign relations and the pandas represented that. We
received a couple of pandas in two thousand and nine
under a ten year deal signed by the PM John Howard.
Their names Wang Wang and Fu Ni right their arrival

(06:39):
amid free trade negotiations was seen as a gesture of goodwill.
Now they departed last year Wang Wang and Funi, and
one of the pandas Anthony Albernez he visited yesterday.

Speaker 2 (06:48):
Was actually FUNI that's cool.

Speaker 3 (06:50):
Yeah, I mean I don't know the fun he said, Hey,
hey you're the Auso. I I've seen you on TV.
We've actually got two others. They're in Adelaide Zoo beyond
the pandas. The Prime Minister said the trip has been
very successful and he wants more Australian money spent in China,
citing the success of hearing aid manufacturer Cochlear in chang Dou.

(07:12):
He dodged a question about whether he trusts Chinese President
Jiji Ping. Speaking at a press conference Albanize, he said
he had no reason not to trust the Chinese leader.
He also rejected criticism from the coalition that his trip
was indulgent. I don't think it was indulgent, right, Like,
you know, there's obviously diplomacy matters, but there just seemed
to be a lot of sort of picture and Joe

(07:35):
yet well the ceremony I get, it's a lot of
pictures of he and j d Ha, yes, holiday snaps,
almost hand in hand. I don't know that I saw
the hand in hand, but you know, with the pandas
and with a great wall of China and.

Speaker 1 (07:50):
Images everything so Sean, you know, I shouldn't be so
skeptical about the panda diplomacy because you know, it's not
exactly like Oprah Winfrey giving away a car, like, not
every no one gets a car.

Speaker 2 (08:00):
Not everyone gets a panda, do they?

Speaker 3 (08:03):
No, totally panda diplomacy is. In fact I was reading yesterday,
Apparently it dates back centuries and centuries and centuries. We
kind of only know it from the Nixon visit. But
China has been giving pand is away forever.

Speaker 2 (08:19):
Apparently I have so much to learn.

Speaker 1 (08:21):
Sean, Australia's anti money laundering and counter terrorism financing regulator
OSITRAK will focus on high risk sectors such as cash
and digital currencies is financial year.

Speaker 3 (08:32):
Its regulatory priorities are on what it calls tranch to industries,
so real estate lawyers, conveyances, accountants, trust and company service providers,
dealers in precious metals and stones. It's a shift from
regulation that primary checks for compliance to one focused on
substantive risk and harms. As part of preparations ahead of

(08:55):
legislative reforms in July next year, oz TRAK is scaling
up its work and systems to bring around eighty thousand
new businesses under that anti money laundering banner, so if
you are in one of those areas, be warned.

Speaker 2 (09:13):
Oh that is interesting, Sean.

Speaker 1 (09:14):
That story is very timely because immediately after the show
you've done a great interview with Marris Burke, Managing Director Investigations,
Diligence and Compliance at Kroll.

Speaker 3 (09:25):
It's all about corruption really like the governance part of ESG,
and corruption is part of the G part of the governance,
and just how it's not a corruption is not a
major issue for Australian companies in Australia, but it is
an issue when you are dealing outside Australia, and we
talk about that and just how easy it is for

(09:48):
companies to find themselves undertaking corrupt practices which are clearly corrupt,
but it's almost like just doing business the way that
country does it, and the dangers in that. It's a
great chat.

Speaker 1 (10:02):
We sometimes take for granted just how much the rule
of law applies here and so I think that's a
really good warning about dealing with foreign territories exactly, Sean.
The sparring in the gaming industry continues with ASX listed
Better making an unsolicited all script takeover bid for points bet.

Speaker 3 (10:21):
Bet as offer proposes three point eighty one of its
shares for everyone points bet share that values the deal
at a dollar and three share points Bet that it's
reviewing the proposal. It will release a target's statement in
due course, including a formal recommendation from the board. Now
points Bet already has another bit on the table from

(10:41):
Japanese entertainment giant Mixey. It's a dollar twenty way above
that dollar and three, and it's in cash, providing much
clearer evaluation and certainty of timing. Probably not going on
in that deal. And then that bid that I'm not
really across because the dollar in three is obviously a
local bid, whereas the Japanese one is not local, so

(11:03):
there's issues there. But Mixey's bid is a lot higher
than that one from yesterday.

Speaker 2 (11:08):
Sean, can I propose a banning? Yeah, absolutely, statement all
the words in due course.

Speaker 3 (11:17):
Because it means nothing at some point in the future.

Speaker 2 (11:19):
Absolutely.

Speaker 3 (11:21):
Good point.

Speaker 1 (11:22):
Moving on Shan us and ASX listed metals producer Alcoa
said it's been hit with a US one hundred and
fifteen million dollars in tariff costs on its imports of
aluminium to the US from its Canadian smelters.

Speaker 3 (11:35):
What a whack Yeah sure is. The tariff's sent at
twenty five percent from March twelve, then fifty percent on
June four. Alchorl warns it expects another ninety million US
hit from tarifs in the September quarter. It said it
redirected some Canadian produced aluminum to customers outside the US
to mitigate additional tariff costs. Al Kaa said said its
second quarter underlying earnings fell sharply, mostly due to lower

(11:58):
alumina and aluminum prices as well as the tariffs. Our
coh's share price on the ASEX is down nearly ten
percent in the past week.

Speaker 2 (12:05):
Sewn in Corporate news, Oil and gas group Santos has
increased production volumes in the second quarter, driven by strong
production in Western Australia that offset flood impacts in the
Cooper Basin.

Speaker 3 (12:16):
The better than expected result is timely given Santos is
under takeover offer from a Middle Eastern consortium. Also ASX
listed car Group fell after it announced that long serving
chief executive Cameron McIntyre will step down and be replaced
by chief financial officer William Elliott.

Speaker 1 (12:32):
Sewn in International News, Donald Trump has asked Republican politicians
if he should fire the FED shair Jerome Powell, and
he's also taken a swipe at his own base for
pushing what he calls the Jeffrey Epstein hoax.

Speaker 3 (12:45):
Starting with Jerome Powell, Trump asked Republican members of Congress
during an Oval Office meeting if he should remove the
FED chair. Apparently they supported the idea, though Trump later
said he wasn't planning on doing anything unless there is
fraud involved, which is possible. That's what he's now. There's
no evidence of that, but that's just what he said.
Senior bankers have rallied behind the FED chair, supporting his

(13:06):
independence and the Fed's independence. Trump, of course dislikes power
because he hasn't cut interest rates yet. Unto Epstein, he's
a disgraced financier and child sex offender who took his
own life in prison in twenty nineteen. He was an
acquaintance of Donald Trump. Many Republicans supporters of Trump want
details of lists of Epstein's friends, slash clients, and details

(13:29):
of his death to be release now. Trump has promised
some of that, but he seems to have changed his mind.
He doesn't have anything to do with it now. He
accused his past supporters is how he put them of
pushing the Jeffrey Epstein hoax. The problem for Trump is
that many in his base do not think it's the
hoax now.

Speaker 1 (13:47):
Meanwhile, staying with the Trump topic, he said he would
send letters to more than one hundred and fifty countries
notifying them that their tariff rates could be ten percent
or fifteen percent as he pushes ahead with his trade agen.

Speaker 3 (14:00):
He said, the tariff will be the same for everyone
in that group. Not sure who they are. He added that, well,
we did say trading partners that would receive those letters
were not big countries. They don't do that much business.
Now Australia actually doesn't do much business with us. We
know that, so maybe we fall into that wait and see.

Speaker 1 (14:16):
Sean eight babies have been born in the UK using
genetic material from three different people to prevent devastating and
often fatal conditions.

Speaker 3 (14:25):
Incredible story. The method, pioneered by UK scientists combines the
egg and sperm from a mum and dad with a
second egg from a DNA woman. The technique has been
legal for a decade, according to BBC, but only now
is their proof that children have been born free of
the incurable mitochondrial disease, which essentially starves the body of energy.

(14:47):
It's normally passed from mother to child. Couples know they
are at risk if previous children, family members, or the
mother has been affected. Now, children born through the three
person technique inherit most of their DNA, their genetic blueprint
from their parents. They also get a tiny amount about
zero point one of a percent, so one tenth of

(15:09):
percent from the second woman. That means that they do
not get this genetic disease and it's a change then
passed down through the generations.

Speaker 2 (15:19):
Oh wow, that's incredible technology.

Speaker 3 (15:22):
Yeah, incredibly hard to get your head around.

Speaker 2 (15:24):
Thank you, Sean, Thank you Adam.

Speaker 1 (15:26):
It's Friday, the eighteenth of July twenty twenty five. Make
sure you're following the podcast. Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,
x TikTok, and Facebook, and please have a great day.
Advertise With Us

Popular Podcasts

Crime Junkie

Crime Junkie

Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.

24/7 News: The Latest

24/7 News: The Latest

The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.

Stuff You Should Know

Stuff You Should Know

If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.

Music, radio and podcasts, all free. Listen online or download the iHeart App.

Connect

© 2025 iHeartMedia, Inc.