January 6, 2026 • 38 mins
Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane discuss the Fed's six big challenges in 2026. Matt Gagnon (CEO Maine Policy Institute & Morning Show Host WGAN Portland) joins the show to chat about the impact of the increases to minimum wage. How are some older job seekers breaking through the bruising labor market? Hiring in the age of AI means proving you need a human. A mystery trader made $400,000 betting on Maduro's downfall.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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(00:43):
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(01:06):
and fall Lane.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Good morning, Welcome back to the Financial Exchange. We've got
markets weakening as we open up the eleven o'clock hour.
Dow still up a third of a percent, but the
SMP and NASDAC barely holding on to their gains. NASDAK
now up less than a tenth of a percent, the
SMP less than a fifth of one percent. Will keep
you covered throughout the show today. The official arbiters are in.
(01:33):
We measured it. We did not get a Santa Claus
rally in twenty twenty five into twenty twenty six. That
marks the third year in a row of the SMP
not delivering on the Santa Claus promise, which for the
records is the first two trading days of the following
year and the five last days of the previous year.
Also marks a third year in a row we haven't
(01:55):
gotten a Santa Claus rally, meaning that it must signify
no about the future, because the last three years, if
I recall, would be twenty twenty five, twenty twenty four,
and twenty twenty three, all of which looked like pretty
solid years in stocks. From what I can understand, I
(02:16):
believe the S and P was up something like eighty
percent cumulatively over those three years, So we can put
that one to bed. But if you are looking for
that year end bump, it did not quite deliver. We
do have a number of economic data points coming out
this week, specifically about the labor market that we're going
to be diving into. Tomorrow, we will receive the ADP
Employment Report before markets open. After markets open, will get
(02:39):
the JOLTS Report. This is the job Opening's Labor Turnover Survey.
A lot of eyes on that one to trying to
figure out how much the labor market has loosened in
terms of employers looking for employees. Thursday, we will get
jobless claims at eight thirty am. And then Friday is
the big one. Friday, you've got the monthly Jobs report
(03:00):
for December, arguably the first normalized one that we've seen
since the government shut down. Of all of the data
points that I've mentioned, one key statistic in that report
is I think going to be the most important of
the week, which is the unemployment rate. That is the
one that I think all eyes are going to be on.
Certainly all eyes at the Fed have mentioned that they
(03:21):
will be on.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
The unemployment rate.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Median forecast is for the excuse me, the unemployment rate
to come in at four point five percent. It bumped
up to four point six in the most recent readings,
so we will see what we get. But clearly we've
been on a pace of slower job increases over the
course of the last few weeks. We obviously have the
backdrop of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro on trial in New
(03:46):
York City and the implications there for oil market stability
in the region, retaliation against the United States. I think
all of those things are on the table, but for
the moment, from a pure markets perspective, not much has
seemingly changed in the wake of that news from Friday
(04:07):
night Saturday morning.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Anything else catching.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Your eye in early early trading or early action so
far in twenty twenty six, Pall, No.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
The last thing I'll know is Tuesday. We'll get an
inflation report too. That's next week to kind of wrap
up some of the important economic reports, though obviously there's
much more focus on the labor market heading into twenty
six than inflation.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Other key events in the early part of this year,
we will be hearing from the Supreme Court on the
legality of the White House's tariffs or the bulk of
the White House's tariffs anyway, So that ruling could really
come down any day now and would pretty dramatically reshape
a number of the things that have been going on
this year in terms of trade deals that have been
written with other nations, whether or not teriffs would need
(04:47):
to be reimbursed two companies that have been collected in
the tens of billions of dollars so far this year.
So we shall see how that all develops. The next
Federal Reserve meeting occurs on January twenty eighth. J Powell
will preside over three more Federal Reserve meetings twenty eighth
of January, eighteenth of March, twenty ninth of April, and
(05:08):
then he's out, and we've got the one of the
two Kevin's to replace him. We don't know which one yet,
but either Kevin Hasset or Kevin worsh look like they
are the most likely candidates for Federal Reserve after Jay.
And Bill Dudley, a former Federal Reserve Bank president, has
a piece on the Big Challenges for twenty twenty six
(05:30):
for the Fed. So I guess let's run through him,
and then you see if we agree with Bill on
his viewpoint. So number one he lists is the independence
of the Fed, and we'll get back to that. But
the President has very clearly given his opinion that he
believes he should have influence over interest rates. He is
nominating somebody who has not explicitly agreed that the president
(05:54):
should have had views, but very much has aligned their
own views with the President's views on the economy and
interest rates. Aside from the independence piece, interest rates themselves
will be obviously a big item for twenty twenty six.
The Fed has been on a trend of downward moves
on the benchmark interest rates. Will that continue? One that
(06:15):
oftentimes flies under the radar of the general public. The
Fed has a six point six trillion dollars balance sheet,
basically bonds that they bought in open market operations over
the course the last few years and dramatically increase those
operations during COVID and then before that during the Great Recession.
Bank supervision has been on focus since twenty twenty three
and the Silicon Valley bank crisis.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
And then he listened to other couple.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
You know, stable coins are getting more and more popularity,
so does the Federal reserve system need to go and
to deal with them. And then the last one he
puts on here is the Fed's monetary policy framework. So
I don't know that all of these are going to
be headliners. I do think that independence and interest rates
are clearly going to be setting the stage for twenty
(06:59):
twenty six. But honestly, I'm not sure that independence ends
up being as big an issue as as people are
I supposing, because right now the independence threat is really
coming at j Powell, who tends to disagree with the
President pretty dramatically on a number of items, and you're
likely to have somebody in there that is going to
(07:20):
agree with the President on pretty much all items that
might be getting I think really what the FED might
have at the end of this is not so much
an independence issue as it might have a credibility issue.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
Well yeah, I think those don't Those kind of go
hand in hand.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
A little bit. I suppose I might be splitting hairs because.
Speaker 4 (07:38):
Now when you see FED policy coming in in the spring,
after the new chair is elected, of course he's going
to have to convince the committee to move in lockstep
with what he wants to do. But there's always going
to there perhaps could be. I should say some skepticism
as to if they were to come out in JUNI
or July and cut by fifty basis points.
Speaker 5 (07:59):
Sure is this.
Speaker 4 (08:00):
Because the FED chair believes it or the whole committee
is on board today?
Speaker 2 (08:05):
I think the credibility piece why everybody cares, like, why
does the FED need to be independent? We talk about
this all the time. The Fed's actual policies, they act
with a long lag. When the FED hiked interest rates
by five percent in the early twenty twenties e twentyes,
(08:26):
that seemed weird to say, like we're in twenty twenty six.
That was the early twenty twenties. The actual effects on
the economy took a long time, right, You didn't see
immediately mortgage rates on average shoot up to six percent.
It took a while because people had to actually buy
homes and get into that normal groove of things. The
(08:47):
policy that the FED has that does not take a
long time is their weight of just convincing the American
public of their path. So when the FED comes out
and says that we are going to quash inflation, We're
going to crush it and there's going to be no
more inflation, people tend to believe them. They tend to
believe that they have the ability to do so and
that they are going to fix the problem. Back during
(09:10):
the Great Financial Crisis, when the FED said we're going
to backstop this thing and make sure that the financial
system doesn't fall apart, that faith itself and the credibility
of the FED is what let us out of some
of those situations.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
If that is hindered in some way.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Because people don't believe it anymore, they don't believe that
their true goal is to question inflation and to keep
the economy float, then it leads to real problems with
how the policy actually works because a lot of the
effects of their policy really come from what they say
rather than what they do.
Speaker 5 (09:42):
Yeah, one more instance to add.
Speaker 4 (09:44):
The regional banking crisis in with Silicon Valley Bank was
another example of the Federal Reserve coming in and backstopping
what was an unstable industry for the regional banks at
that point in time.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Let's take a quick break when we come back. Matt
Gangnoni's the CEO of the Main Policy Institute, also the
host of the morning show on WGA and up in Portland, Maine.
You gonna be joining us for a minimum wage discussion.
As nineteen states across the country increase their minimum wage
in twenty twenty six, We'll be right back with Matt.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
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(10:33):
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Speaker 2 (10:53):
Join us now is Matt Gangnoni's the CEO of the
Main Policy Institute. He's also the host of the morning
news show on Portland's largest talk radio station, WGA, and
joins us now to talk about minimum wage changes across
the country and in Maine itself.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
Matt, thanks for joining us.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
It's pleasure to be here as always, so invite Matt.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Your career has spanned both economics and politics, and I
guess my first question for you is the minimum wage
debate throughout most of my life was mainly, at least
from a political perspective, was a bit left versus right,
and I think that that's gotten a little bit more
muddled today.
Speaker 3 (11:34):
Where does minimum wage really.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
Live today in the eyes of the average voter and
where they stand politically.
Speaker 5 (11:43):
Yeah, it's a great question.
Speaker 6 (11:44):
Actually, it's always been a very populist type of issue.
So while I think you're right in saying that there
was a left right element to it in market advocates
versus people that are in favor of more sort of
socialized economy stuff, I think that generally speaking, the average
voter has been very ortive overall of minimum wage you know,
not only existing but rising along with time to try
(12:07):
to meet the demands of inflation. So I think that's
all the more true now as the Republican Party has
taken a more populist personality over the last several years.
I think you'll find that the economics of the current
right wing movement are a great deal more accepting of
things like minimum wage and minimum wage being set in
any particular you know number that they think makes sense.
(12:30):
But at the same time, I think there still is
a powerful strain of of you know, advocates of free
markets that still exist out there that have a significant
amount of pushback to what you're seeing happen in a
lot of states and a lot of cities across the country.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
Your own state obviously has a minimum wage. In fact, Portland,
the city itself, has a separate higher minimum wage. Have
you looked at the effects there of won the state
level minimum wage and then the bifurcation of a city
level and state level minimum wage and what that does
to surrounding towns and areas and work in those areas.
Speaker 6 (13:05):
No, yeah, no, I mean we not only have the
sort of bifurcated minimum wage you're talking about, we also
tie ours to inflation, so as the inflation rate goes up,
there's an automatic increase that happens in the state of Maine,
so that we don't have to go through the process
of going through the legislature and you know, passing legislation
and whatnot, which has meant that the minimum wage has
continued to crawl up rather significantly over the course of
(13:27):
many years. The effect is the same that you see anywhere.
Minimum wages, broadly speaking, are wage controls, and ultimately they
raise prices in terms of labor. So as that happens,
you have a higher expense for people that have these
employees on their books, which means they hire fewer people
and they work fewer hours and ultimately get less productivity
(13:49):
out of out of those workers. So it's one of
those one of many policies that looks and sounds good,
but when you get into the second and third order
effects of that policy, you learn that there's all this
significant amount of unintended consequences that go along with them.
Speaker 5 (14:05):
And you see that in Portland for sure.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
When I hear of policies like that, it kind of
reminds me of the debate we had here in Massachusetts
on the millionaire's tax. And in my mind, it was
so easy for a business, for example, to just say, okay,
well I can go to the New Hampshire border and
reincorporate over there. Is that something you see when you
talk about very localized minimum wages, for instance, I'm sure
(14:27):
it's relatively easy for a restaurant or another business to
relocate from Portland to South Portland or another city surrounding it.
Speaker 6 (14:37):
Yes, although I will say that the surrounding communities are
starting to also kind of keep up with that minimum
wage rate. So if you're interested in moving, sometimes you
might want to move two or three or four towns away,
but the greater Portland area is large enough, and you know,
sort of the nature of it is what it is,
so that it makes it very easy to move to
a Scarborough or a Westbrook or something like that. And
(14:57):
that's absolutely what you see people doing. But I actually
would like to highlight the fact that even for those
who don't do it, it has a negative economic consequence
for that business and for frankly labor in the in
the city as well.
Speaker 5 (15:09):
Even for those who stay.
Speaker 6 (15:11):
I mean, when you when you're paying that much above
sort of the actual market rate for labor, it means
that fewer people who are employed. It means that the
business has less people working on their behalf trying to,
you know, make the business as good as it possibly
can be. It has real economic consequences for profits which
start convincing people, hey, maybe I don't want to start
(15:31):
a business in this city, you know, and then they
have lower economic productivity as a result. There's again a
lot of second and third leorder effects that come with this,
even for those who stay.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
More workers in the US now have a minimum wage
of fifteen dollars or higher than those in areas where
the minimum wage is still the federal minimum of seven
to twenty five. I don't hear minimum wage being talked
about a lot on the campaign trail, but you, you know,
you spoke to the populist movement within the Republican Party.
Do you think this is an issue that gets onto
(16:03):
the calendar in the next five to ten years at
a federal level with changes to the minimum wage.
Speaker 6 (16:08):
It's possible, but I honestly doubt it. I think that
there is Despite the changes that you've seen in the
politics of this country in the last decade or so,
there's still, I think a resistance in the political class
to really kind of go down that road. Because in Congress,
there are a great deal of the Republicans that are
(16:29):
in the Senate in the House that are still rather
free market oriented, so they're resist and to do.
Speaker 5 (16:34):
This kind of thing.
Speaker 6 (16:35):
And even those that are more populist in personality ultimately
have other things that they care about a lot more.
You know, they're much more cultural battles and immigration issues
and stuff on DEI.
Speaker 5 (16:48):
Woke stuff and all that.
Speaker 6 (16:50):
And while minimum wage might be more acceptable to them
than in the past. It's not like the thing that
they're they're charging up the hillover. So I don't know
if you're going to see much of a federal push
in this regard particular, because the states are doing what
they're doing and raising those raids. So what I just
find interesting about this entire debate is that I remember
not that long ago when it was the fight for fifteen,
(17:10):
and that was the end all be all of minimum
wage fights, and it was going to solve all of
our problems. And you know, a lot of states now
are at that level or even higher.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
Turns out, we still have affordability problems, you.
Speaker 6 (17:20):
Have worse supportability problems. This is significantly worse than it
used to be, and it's because inflation always eats away
at that and as things are more expensive, that means
that the prices that people charge at convenience stores goes
up because their labor costs have gone up. You're always
chasing a car you never catch if you're a dog,
And I think that that's ultimately the story of this
(17:41):
fifteen is no longer sufficient. So now it's going to
be twenty five. When you get to twenty five, that
won't be enough.
Speaker 5 (17:46):
It never ends.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
Mc daniel is the CEO of the Main Policy Institute,
host of the Morning show on WGA, and joining to
today talk about changes to the minimum wage across the country. Thanks, Mat,
I appreciate it.
Speaker 7 (17:58):
You bet all right for trivia here on the Financial
Exchange and on this day. Back in nineteen seventy five,
Wheel of Fortune debuted on NBC. Pat Sajak served as
the longest tenured host of the show beforehanding the reins
over to Ryan Seacrest. So our trivia question today, who
is the original host of Wheel of Fortune? Once again?
(18:19):
Who is the original host of Will of Fortune? Be
the fifth person today to text us at six one
seven three six to two thirteen eighty five with the
correct answer along with the keyword trivia, and you win
a Financial Exchange Show T shirt.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Once again.
Speaker 7 (18:36):
The fifth correct response to text us to the number
six one seven three six to two thirteen eighty five
with the correct answer along with the keyword trivia, We'll
win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
By the way, we can't discuss the minimum wage without
mentioning my favorite minimum wage policy across the whole country,
which is California's because they have a minimum wage and
then they have a fast foodie. I still don't know
that enough time has gone by to really measure this,
but again, California has a sixteen fifty statewide minimum wage,
(19:14):
but if you work for a fast food restaurant, you
get twenty. So congratulations to those who are working at
Mickeyd's in California and making more than other minimum wage rolls.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Quick break, Wall Street Watch coming up.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
Next, bringing the latest financial news straight.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
To your radio.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch. A complete
look at what's moving market so far today right here
on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 7 (20:00):
Markets trading modestly higher one day after the Dow closed
at a record high yesterday. At the moment, the Dow
is up by nearly half a percent, or two hundred
and eighteen points. SMP five hundred up over two tenths
of a percent or fifteen points higher. NASDAC up just
over a tenth of a percent or thirty three points higher.
Rusted two thousand is also up over a tenth of
(20:21):
a percent. Tenure Treasure reeled up two basis points at
four point one nine to one percent day, and crude
oil down about half a percent, trading at fifty eight
dollars a barrel after early gains, and Video shares are
now only edging higher after the AI and chip Giant
said it would begin shipping new in faster AI chips
yesterday at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. The
(20:44):
rubenships are being manufactured and will be shipped two customers
including Microsoft and Amazon, in the second half of the year,
and Video also unveiled unveiled new autonomous vehicle software. Meanwhile,
competitor AMD also now it's a new chip at CEES
for use in smaller corporate data centers. However, am D
(21:05):
shares are now down over three percent Elsewhere, Metas said
this morning that it's delaying the international expansion of its
ray band display glasses due to inventory constraints and unprecedented demand.
In the US, Meta shares down over half a percent,
and Ford said this morning that it's US vehicle sales
increased six percent last year, marking the automaker's best annual
(21:27):
sales since twenty nineteen. Ford finished the year as the
third largest automaker behind Toyota and General Motors, Ford shares
arising over one percent. Today, I'm Tucker Silva and that
is Wall Street Watching. In the previous segment, we asked
you the trivia question who is the original host of
Wheel of Fortune? That would be Chuck Woolery. Patrese from
(21:49):
Summer's Connecticut is our winner today, taking on the Financial
Exchange Show t shirt. Congrats to Patrese. We played trivia
every day here in the Financial Exchange. See complete contest
rules at Financial Changshow dot com.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
I've never even heard of that guy.
Speaker 5 (22:04):
Wow, Yeah, I didn't either. I had to google him.
Speaker 7 (22:07):
Look familiar.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
There's a piece in the Wall Street Journal today about
older workers looking for jobs, and I've never been over
the age of fifty five, but i have to say
working with people who I'm hoping to get there. Not convinced,
but I'm hoping. I can think of little that would
be more stressful than needing a job at the age
of over fifty five and losing your existing job at
(22:33):
that stage. Yeah, there might be other more stress like
young children that might be a little slightly more stressful stage.
But when you are, you know, the parent of young children,
you're not facing the same agism that you are when
you are a sixty two year old looking for work
in the tech sector, for example. And you know, everybody
listening right now who is of that age has experienced
(22:57):
the agism in the in the late market and how
difficult it can be to find and retain a job
and make your skill set look appealing to an employer.
Speaker 3 (23:05):
So I don't think it's any secret that.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
That exists, and the protections there just you know, aren't
terribly helpful. But the piece of the Wall Street Journal,
I think, is an interesting expose into five people who
found themselves in that type of situation, either laid off
or had retired and looking to get back into work,
and it really outlines, you know, just the lengths they
had to go to and the challenges they faced when
trying to look for look for a new job in
(23:30):
that whatever you want to call it, second half of
your career, last last quarter of your working career, and
it spans all sorts of different industries and work. But
you know, one common theme that I saw throughout them
was it really required changing your expectations for work, right like,
in order for almost all of them to find a job,
(23:52):
it did not entail them going right back into the
industry that they worked in for some cases three decades
because they just weren't found to be as desirable in
those same industries. And you know, there's one case where
a guy was working in oil and gas ended up
taking a job working at a local wine shop before
finally getting connected back into the oil and gas sector.
(24:14):
Several people who could only find part time consulting gigs,
and others who have had to kind of completely revamp
their lifestyle based on a change in that career path
and what to do about all of it.
Speaker 4 (24:27):
It was, you know, interesting some of the cases that
you see here, and there was different methods use here.
Whether it's that oil and gas executive sort of doing
the traditional sort of networking sort of thing.
Speaker 5 (24:39):
Or you've got others that just you know.
Speaker 4 (24:42):
Cold emailed and in the insurance agency or the insurance
sector and got a job there driving for Uber, kind
of doing some gig work. There all different alternatives out there,
but interesting nonetheless to hear sort of the different stories.
And it's a definitely a problem that you talk to
a lot of our clients who are in that age demographic.
(25:04):
You have to be specific about what you're looking at
for a job opportunity.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
Well, and the reality is for a lot of people
that are at that stage, it's kind of a time
period that you banked on saving the most amount of money. Sure, right,
Like for most of people in that age demographic, kids
are off the payroll. If you've done paying for college,
then the loans are out there and you might still
(25:29):
have to help out the loans, but the college itself
is oftentimes done with at that stage if you were
helping with it, and it's like, Okay, this is my
last ten years to really focus.
Speaker 5 (25:37):
Kind of the peak of your earnings power too.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
Like how do I maximize my retirement savings? And that
is certainly a very common part of a financial plan
is Okay, I'm past all these expenses, i have my
career stability, now, I've got all of my experience, I'm
making my peak earnings. Now I'm going to save for retirement.
I don't think enough planning work though, goes into the
contingent paul and understanding what the contingencies look like, right, Okay, yeah,
(26:05):
if I can only make it five years in this
career instead.
Speaker 3 (26:08):
Of ten, like I'm planning how do I make things work?
Speaker 2 (26:12):
What are the rules if I'm laid off at fifty eight,
I'm not quite fifty nine and a half yet all
my money's in retirement savings because I used all the
cash for college education and paying down my mortgage. What
do I do in those situations and how do I
plan for them? Certainly that is part of what something
like a target date fund in a four to one
K attempts to safeguard you against. It is preparing for
(26:35):
that specific type of situation where your investments are getting
more conservative.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
But obviously there is.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
A lot more that goes into it than just saying, oh,
my portfolio has become more conservative, and so, yeah, check
that box. I got laid off, but I will be
just fine. Obviously, the unemployment rate's been increasing slightly. We
don't know what's in store for twenty twenty six, but
I've been talking a lot about resolutions on the program
so far this year. And one of the big stressors
(27:03):
that I know hits at families specifically, hits it married
couples specifically, is the finances. Now, oftentimes there's one part
of the spouse that doesn't fully understand the finances because
I don't know about your experience, Paul, but in my
experience there's usually one part of the couple that likes
to handle it and the other one that likes to
take a hands off approach. But having somebody in the
(27:24):
middle there that can help explain it and play in
English and advise you on the things you might not
be talking about. Is where a financial advisor comes into place.
If you've never worked with one, If you have and
you're not getting the right answers to your questions, or
you just want to kick the tires and get a
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Speaker 3 (27:52):
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Speaker 2 (28:26):
The other piece of this labor market story that I
think is going to gain more traction every year that
goes by is the state of hiring right now, because
I keep hearing from employers that before they are allowed
to consider hiring somebody, Salesforce implemented this.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
I could be misquoting that, so let me double check
on it.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
But I know there's a big tech company that basically
said you must justify in writing why a AI cannot
do the job that you are hiring for right right,
And I think that's going to face more and more
scrutiny by employers of Hey, we have all these expensive tools.
We've been whether it's a good idea or not, we've
(29:06):
been plowing hundreds of millions of dollars into this new
tech development that is supposed to be paying dividends. So
explain to me before you go hire a human being
for whatever it is. Six one hundred and fifty thousand
dollars a year. Tell me why our in house systems
that we developed using AI can't do that job. And
(29:29):
that's going to be an interesting new part of the workforce.
Speaker 4 (29:32):
It's interesting you read this piece from Bloomberg and you
start to extrapolate it out for the labor market in
twenty twenty six. Gee, there are certainly some areas that
there won't be a tremendous amount of demand for in
college entry level or college recent college graduates and entry
level workers. That's an area that I keep coming back to,
And maybe it's out of selfish bias, because I myself
(29:54):
was hired to work customer service at an eight hundred
number for financial services firm out of college, and I
just I feel like those types of jobs for sure,
one hundred percent. If I was in the same boat
today that I was, then I would not be hired.
It was at you know, Bank of America, Merrill Echine.
With the resources that they have at their disposal, I'm
sure they're investing heavily, if not already deploying AI t
(30:17):
be that customer service worker.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
I mean, heck, I was on the mass DMV or
RMB site the other day taking a look at my
vehicle registration and an AI chatbot window popped up. And
for the state of Massachusetts. That's crazy, say, are usually
twenty five years before I can answer your questions here.
By the way, don't rely on the answers because I
might not get them. All right, this is powered by
artificial intelligence. The Commonwealth of Massachusetts is adapting an AI chatpot.
Speaker 5 (30:43):
Maybe we won't have to go to the DMV anymore.
Speaker 3 (30:46):
I doubt it.
Speaker 7 (30:46):
By the way, it was a shopify who they want
to make new hires and less managers can prove AI
is incapable of doing the job.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
Wow, well, at least it started with an S. I
guess I'm going to justify it that way. Let's take it.
Let's take a quick break. When we come back a
little bit. Stat Roulette is next.
Speaker 1 (31:06):
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(31:29):
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Speaker 7 (31:46):
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Speaker 3 (32:22):
It's time for a bit of stacker.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Let here, Paul, I'm gonna kick things off with a
charming new technology called brew Bird. If you have ever
been dissatisfied with your company, you know giant coffeemaker that
churns out nasty cups of coffee that sit there all day,
and then you're drinking the stale.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
Coffee for four hours.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Brew Bird has the solution for you at the very
affordable price of ten thousand dollars per machine. It is
the newest addition to offices at companies like Salesforce, LinkedIn
and Gap in the Bay Area. And unlike it's about
the size of a Cureig, and it does make single cups,
(33:06):
but unlike the Cuig, it's going to grind the beans
on site. And then what was the process that I
heard that I didn't understand why it matters. I can
understand how freshly ground beans are a little bit more important,
But unlike Kuriger and Espresso, Brewberty us whole beans and
(33:26):
precise extraction times.
Speaker 3 (33:28):
Does anybody know what that means?
Speaker 2 (33:30):
No, neither do I I'm not sure, but I think
what we should do is probably just cancel all bonuses
next year and go with one of these instead, maybe
a couple. Actually, just hey, I understand that people like cash,
but let's go with the ten thousand dollars coffee machine instead.
I would imagine that even Starbucks doesn't spend ten thousand
(33:50):
dollars on their coffee machines for their stores. I guess
they pay humans to do it. You might be able
to hire a part time barista for cheaper. I think
there are better options than this. It does remind me
of another San Francisco born idea, the slim silhouette. Anybody
know what I'm talking about there? That would be a
trash can? That was that one?
Speaker 3 (34:12):
A design contest in San Francisco never actually.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Got off the ground, but they put out an RFP
for ideas for a new designed trash can for the
city public trash cans.
Speaker 3 (34:23):
The prototypes came.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
At eighteen thousand, eight hundred dollars each, whereas once they
had plans to mass development developed these things, they were
gonna get them down to three thousand bucks apiece.
Speaker 3 (34:33):
So never actually happened.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
As I don't think this new ten thousand dollars coffee
machine is going to really happen for a lot of people.
But yeah, it seems like a pretty preposterous designer.
Speaker 5 (34:45):
What a garbage idea?
Speaker 3 (34:47):
Yeah, okay, what do you have for us?
Speaker 5 (34:48):
Paul catch that?
Speaker 3 (34:50):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (34:50):
I got the joke, all right.
Speaker 4 (34:51):
Nice mystery trader on Calshi made four hundred thousand dollars
betting on.
Speaker 3 (34:58):
A polymarket polymarket.
Speaker 4 (35:01):
Thank you for that very important correction on Maduro's downfall.
I had read another story about CALCI today. This is
a website similar to Calshie's, but the competitor direct competitor
of them, poly market where you can make bets on different.
Speaker 2 (35:18):
All sorts of crazy things like the US taking President
Maduro exactly.
Speaker 4 (35:22):
And so this was a twelvefold return on the investment.
It was wagers that were made back in December as
to whether or not the US would invade Venezuela by
January thirty first, and they can made the first bet
on December twenty sevens then only ramped up bets over
the course of the next week as tensions mounted between Washington.
Speaker 5 (35:43):
DC and Venezuela.
Speaker 4 (35:45):
And it's getting to a point where, I mean, I
understand some of the betting market stuff on sports stuff,
I've been around that for years. But the fact that
you can bet on who's going to die in stranger
things like these reek of insider trading, the risks out there.
Speaker 3 (36:02):
Well, and furthering that.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
They don't track who the people are, right, so they
tell you who made the bet but it's not even
clear to me that polymarket knows who made the bet.
It's a mystery trader that gambled four hundred thousand dollars
on here. It's not clear to me if you register.
So if you open an account at Schwab or Fidelity
or Vanguard or any of these big places, you have
(36:26):
to give a whole bunch of information like rise.
Speaker 5 (36:28):
Yeah, where do you do?
Speaker 3 (36:29):
What do you do for work?
Speaker 2 (36:30):
It's really unclear to me that that is required with
any of these things. And look, I know I talk
about the benefits of deregulation across a whole bunch of things. Uh,
And I think that there's a happy medium here, But
you cannot have gambling websites where what has the real
(36:51):
look of an insider getting information about plans that the
White House was forming, then placing bets on some website
and screwing a whole bunch of people and making what
do you say, twelve times four hundred thousand dollars on
the idea that this is going to happen. Now, maybe
he just got lucky, But I don't know a whole
lot of people that wager four hundred thousand dollars with
the hopes of getting lucky.
Speaker 5 (37:11):
Well, when you're say, screwing a bunch of people, I
guess I can see that.
Speaker 3 (37:14):
The other side of that trade, you got screwed.
Speaker 5 (37:16):
That's true. That's true.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
That's why insider trading is a problem is because there
is always a winner and a loser to that bet
that you are making. You are buying the shares from
somebody else who is selling them, and if you don't
have that insider information, then you get screwed on the deal.
And I have a whole bunch of problems that they
stayed in.
Speaker 3 (37:37):
I was thinking of.
Speaker 4 (37:37):
The house perspective, like it was the polymarket paying it up.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
But you're right to create these odds from other people
taking the bets. I hate to go on a long
tangent about this, but the betting markets are out there
are absolutely plagued with scams and problems, not to mention
the addictive side of it, and it just it just
needs to be policed better. I'm not saying don't allow it.
(38:01):
I'm just saying, don't allow people to insider trade and
deceive people.
Speaker 3 (38:06):
Quick break.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
For the rest of the day. Markets are holding on
to their gains. For now, we'll have a full recap
and the Joltz Report out tomorrow here on the Financial
Exchange
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
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(01:06):
and fall Lane.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Good morning, Welcome back to the Financial Exchange. We've got
markets weakening as we open up the eleven o'clock hour.
Dow still up a third of a percent, but the
SMP and NASDAC barely holding on to their gains. NASDAK
now up less than a tenth of a percent, the
SMP less than a fifth of one percent. Will keep
you covered throughout the show today. The official arbiters are in.
(01:33):
We measured it. We did not get a Santa Claus
rally in twenty twenty five into twenty twenty six. That
marks the third year in a row of the SMP
not delivering on the Santa Claus promise, which for the
records is the first two trading days of the following
year and the five last days of the previous year.
Also marks a third year in a row we haven't
(01:55):
gotten a Santa Claus rally, meaning that it must signify
no about the future, because the last three years, if
I recall, would be twenty twenty five, twenty twenty four,
and twenty twenty three, all of which looked like pretty
solid years in stocks. From what I can understand, I
(02:16):
believe the S and P was up something like eighty
percent cumulatively over those three years, So we can put
that one to bed. But if you are looking for
that year end bump, it did not quite deliver. We
do have a number of economic data points coming out
this week, specifically about the labor market that we're going
to be diving into. Tomorrow, we will receive the ADP
Employment Report before markets open. After markets open, will get
(02:39):
the JOLTS Report. This is the job Opening's Labor Turnover Survey.
A lot of eyes on that one to trying to
figure out how much the labor market has loosened in
terms of employers looking for employees. Thursday, we will get
jobless claims at eight thirty am. And then Friday is
the big one. Friday, you've got the monthly Jobs report
(03:00):
for December, arguably the first normalized one that we've seen
since the government shut down. Of all of the data
points that I've mentioned, one key statistic in that report
is I think going to be the most important of
the week, which is the unemployment rate. That is the
one that I think all eyes are going to be on.
Certainly all eyes at the Fed have mentioned that they
(03:21):
will be on.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
The unemployment rate.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Median forecast is for the excuse me, the unemployment rate
to come in at four point five percent. It bumped
up to four point six in the most recent readings,
so we will see what we get. But clearly we've
been on a pace of slower job increases over the
course of the last few weeks. We obviously have the
backdrop of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro on trial in New
(03:46):
York City and the implications there for oil market stability
in the region, retaliation against the United States. I think
all of those things are on the table, but for
the moment, from a pure markets perspective, not much has
seemingly changed in the wake of that news from Friday
(04:07):
night Saturday morning.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Anything else catching.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Your eye in early early trading or early action so
far in twenty twenty six, Pall, No.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
The last thing I'll know is Tuesday. We'll get an
inflation report too. That's next week to kind of wrap
up some of the important economic reports, though obviously there's
much more focus on the labor market heading into twenty
six than inflation.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Other key events in the early part of this year,
we will be hearing from the Supreme Court on the
legality of the White House's tariffs or the bulk of
the White House's tariffs anyway, So that ruling could really
come down any day now and would pretty dramatically reshape
a number of the things that have been going on
this year in terms of trade deals that have been
written with other nations, whether or not teriffs would need
(04:47):
to be reimbursed two companies that have been collected in
the tens of billions of dollars so far this year.
So we shall see how that all develops. The next
Federal Reserve meeting occurs on January twenty eighth. J Powell
will preside over three more Federal Reserve meetings twenty eighth
of January, eighteenth of March, twenty ninth of April, and
(05:08):
then he's out, and we've got the one of the
two Kevin's to replace him. We don't know which one yet,
but either Kevin Hasset or Kevin worsh look like they
are the most likely candidates for Federal Reserve after Jay.
And Bill Dudley, a former Federal Reserve Bank president, has
a piece on the Big Challenges for twenty twenty six
(05:30):
for the Fed. So I guess let's run through him,
and then you see if we agree with Bill on
his viewpoint. So number one he lists is the independence
of the Fed, and we'll get back to that. But
the President has very clearly given his opinion that he
believes he should have influence over interest rates. He is
nominating somebody who has not explicitly agreed that the president
(05:54):
should have had views, but very much has aligned their
own views with the President's views on the economy and
interest rates. Aside from the independence piece, interest rates themselves
will be obviously a big item for twenty twenty six.
The Fed has been on a trend of downward moves
on the benchmark interest rates. Will that continue? One that
(06:15):
oftentimes flies under the radar of the general public. The
Fed has a six point six trillion dollars balance sheet,
basically bonds that they bought in open market operations over
the course the last few years and dramatically increase those
operations during COVID and then before that during the Great Recession.
Bank supervision has been on focus since twenty twenty three
and the Silicon Valley bank crisis.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
And then he listened to other couple.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
You know, stable coins are getting more and more popularity,
so does the Federal reserve system need to go and
to deal with them. And then the last one he
puts on here is the Fed's monetary policy framework. So
I don't know that all of these are going to
be headliners. I do think that independence and interest rates
are clearly going to be setting the stage for twenty
(06:59):
twenty six. But honestly, I'm not sure that independence ends
up being as big an issue as as people are
I supposing, because right now the independence threat is really
coming at j Powell, who tends to disagree with the
President pretty dramatically on a number of items, and you're
likely to have somebody in there that is going to
(07:20):
agree with the President on pretty much all items that
might be getting I think really what the FED might
have at the end of this is not so much
an independence issue as it might have a credibility issue.
Speaker 4 (07:31):
Well yeah, I think those don't Those kind of go
hand in hand.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
A little bit. I suppose I might be splitting hairs because.
Speaker 4 (07:38):
Now when you see FED policy coming in in the spring,
after the new chair is elected, of course he's going
to have to convince the committee to move in lockstep
with what he wants to do. But there's always going
to there perhaps could be. I should say some skepticism
as to if they were to come out in JUNI
or July and cut by fifty basis points.
Speaker 5 (07:59):
Sure is this.
Speaker 4 (08:00):
Because the FED chair believes it or the whole committee
is on board today?
Speaker 2 (08:05):
I think the credibility piece why everybody cares, like, why
does the FED need to be independent? We talk about
this all the time. The Fed's actual policies, they act
with a long lag. When the FED hiked interest rates
by five percent in the early twenty twenties e twentyes,
(08:26):
that seemed weird to say, like we're in twenty twenty six.
That was the early twenty twenties. The actual effects on
the economy took a long time, right, You didn't see
immediately mortgage rates on average shoot up to six percent.
It took a while because people had to actually buy
homes and get into that normal groove of things. The
(08:47):
policy that the FED has that does not take a
long time is their weight of just convincing the American
public of their path. So when the FED comes out
and says that we are going to quash inflation, We're
going to crush it and there's going to be no
more inflation, people tend to believe them. They tend to
believe that they have the ability to do so and
that they are going to fix the problem. Back during
(09:10):
the Great Financial Crisis, when the FED said we're going
to backstop this thing and make sure that the financial
system doesn't fall apart, that faith itself and the credibility
of the FED is what let us out of some
of those situations.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
If that is hindered in some way.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Because people don't believe it anymore, they don't believe that
their true goal is to question inflation and to keep
the economy float, then it leads to real problems with
how the policy actually works because a lot of the
effects of their policy really come from what they say
rather than what they do.
Speaker 5 (09:42):
Yeah, one more instance to add.
Speaker 4 (09:44):
The regional banking crisis in with Silicon Valley Bank was
another example of the Federal Reserve coming in and backstopping
what was an unstable industry for the regional banks at
that point in time.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Let's take a quick break when we come back. Matt
Gangnoni's the CEO of the Main Policy Institute, also the
host of the morning show on WGA and up in Portland, Maine.
You gonna be joining us for a minimum wage discussion.
As nineteen states across the country increase their minimum wage
in twenty twenty six, We'll be right back with Matt.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
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(10:33):
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Speaker 2 (10:53):
Join us now is Matt Gangnoni's the CEO of the
Main Policy Institute. He's also the host of the morning
news show on Portland's largest talk radio station, WGA, and
joins us now to talk about minimum wage changes across
the country and in Maine itself.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
Matt, thanks for joining us.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
It's pleasure to be here as always, so invite Matt.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Your career has spanned both economics and politics, and I
guess my first question for you is the minimum wage
debate throughout most of my life was mainly, at least
from a political perspective, was a bit left versus right,
and I think that that's gotten a little bit more
muddled today.
Speaker 3 (11:34):
Where does minimum wage really.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
Live today in the eyes of the average voter and
where they stand politically.
Speaker 5 (11:43):
Yeah, it's a great question.
Speaker 6 (11:44):
Actually, it's always been a very populist type of issue.
So while I think you're right in saying that there
was a left right element to it in market advocates
versus people that are in favor of more sort of
socialized economy stuff, I think that generally speaking, the average
voter has been very ortive overall of minimum wage you know,
not only existing but rising along with time to try
(12:07):
to meet the demands of inflation. So I think that's
all the more true now as the Republican Party has
taken a more populist personality over the last several years.
I think you'll find that the economics of the current
right wing movement are a great deal more accepting of
things like minimum wage and minimum wage being set in
any particular you know number that they think makes sense.
(12:30):
But at the same time, I think there still is
a powerful strain of of you know, advocates of free
markets that still exist out there that have a significant
amount of pushback to what you're seeing happen in a
lot of states and a lot of cities across the country.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
Your own state obviously has a minimum wage. In fact, Portland,
the city itself, has a separate higher minimum wage. Have
you looked at the effects there of won the state
level minimum wage and then the bifurcation of a city
level and state level minimum wage and what that does
to surrounding towns and areas and work in those areas.
Speaker 6 (13:05):
No, yeah, no, I mean we not only have the
sort of bifurcated minimum wage you're talking about, we also
tie ours to inflation, so as the inflation rate goes up,
there's an automatic increase that happens in the state of Maine,
so that we don't have to go through the process
of going through the legislature and you know, passing legislation
and whatnot, which has meant that the minimum wage has
continued to crawl up rather significantly over the course of
(13:27):
many years. The effect is the same that you see anywhere.
Minimum wages, broadly speaking, are wage controls, and ultimately they
raise prices in terms of labor. So as that happens,
you have a higher expense for people that have these
employees on their books, which means they hire fewer people
and they work fewer hours and ultimately get less productivity
(13:49):
out of out of those workers. So it's one of
those one of many policies that looks and sounds good,
but when you get into the second and third order
effects of that policy, you learn that there's all this
significant amount of unintended consequences that go along with them.
Speaker 5 (14:05):
And you see that in Portland for sure.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
When I hear of policies like that, it kind of
reminds me of the debate we had here in Massachusetts
on the millionaire's tax. And in my mind, it was
so easy for a business, for example, to just say, okay,
well I can go to the New Hampshire border and
reincorporate over there. Is that something you see when you
talk about very localized minimum wages, for instance, I'm sure
(14:27):
it's relatively easy for a restaurant or another business to
relocate from Portland to South Portland or another city surrounding it.
Speaker 6 (14:37):
Yes, although I will say that the surrounding communities are
starting to also kind of keep up with that minimum
wage rate. So if you're interested in moving, sometimes you
might want to move two or three or four towns away,
but the greater Portland area is large enough, and you know,
sort of the nature of it is what it is,
so that it makes it very easy to move to
a Scarborough or a Westbrook or something like that. And
(14:57):
that's absolutely what you see people doing. But I actually
would like to highlight the fact that even for those
who don't do it, it has a negative economic consequence
for that business and for frankly labor in the in
the city as well.
Speaker 5 (15:09):
Even for those who stay.
Speaker 6 (15:11):
I mean, when you when you're paying that much above
sort of the actual market rate for labor, it means
that fewer people who are employed. It means that the
business has less people working on their behalf trying to,
you know, make the business as good as it possibly
can be. It has real economic consequences for profits which
start convincing people, hey, maybe I don't want to start
(15:31):
a business in this city, you know, and then they
have lower economic productivity as a result. There's again a
lot of second and third leorder effects that come with this,
even for those who stay.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
More workers in the US now have a minimum wage
of fifteen dollars or higher than those in areas where
the minimum wage is still the federal minimum of seven
to twenty five. I don't hear minimum wage being talked
about a lot on the campaign trail, but you, you know,
you spoke to the populist movement within the Republican Party.
Do you think this is an issue that gets onto
(16:03):
the calendar in the next five to ten years at
a federal level with changes to the minimum wage.
Speaker 6 (16:08):
It's possible, but I honestly doubt it. I think that
there is Despite the changes that you've seen in the
politics of this country in the last decade or so,
there's still, I think a resistance in the political class
to really kind of go down that road. Because in Congress,
there are a great deal of the Republicans that are
(16:29):
in the Senate in the House that are still rather
free market oriented, so they're resist and to do.
Speaker 5 (16:34):
This kind of thing.
Speaker 6 (16:35):
And even those that are more populist in personality ultimately
have other things that they care about a lot more.
You know, they're much more cultural battles and immigration issues
and stuff on DEI.
Speaker 5 (16:48):
Woke stuff and all that.
Speaker 6 (16:50):
And while minimum wage might be more acceptable to them
than in the past. It's not like the thing that
they're they're charging up the hillover. So I don't know
if you're going to see much of a federal push
in this regard particular, because the states are doing what
they're doing and raising those raids. So what I just
find interesting about this entire debate is that I remember
not that long ago when it was the fight for fifteen,
(17:10):
and that was the end all be all of minimum
wage fights, and it was going to solve all of
our problems. And you know, a lot of states now
are at that level or even higher.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
Turns out, we still have affordability problems, you.
Speaker 6 (17:20):
Have worse supportability problems. This is significantly worse than it
used to be, and it's because inflation always eats away
at that and as things are more expensive, that means
that the prices that people charge at convenience stores goes
up because their labor costs have gone up. You're always
chasing a car you never catch if you're a dog,
And I think that that's ultimately the story of this
(17:41):
fifteen is no longer sufficient. So now it's going to
be twenty five. When you get to twenty five, that
won't be enough.
Speaker 5 (17:46):
It never ends.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
Mc daniel is the CEO of the Main Policy Institute,
host of the Morning show on WGA, and joining to
today talk about changes to the minimum wage across the country. Thanks, Mat,
I appreciate it.
Speaker 7 (17:58):
You bet all right for trivia here on the Financial
Exchange and on this day. Back in nineteen seventy five,
Wheel of Fortune debuted on NBC. Pat Sajak served as
the longest tenured host of the show beforehanding the reins
over to Ryan Seacrest. So our trivia question today, who
is the original host of Wheel of Fortune? Once again?
(18:19):
Who is the original host of Will of Fortune? Be
the fifth person today to text us at six one
seven three six to two thirteen eighty five with the
correct answer along with the keyword trivia, and you win
a Financial Exchange Show T shirt.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Once again.
Speaker 7 (18:36):
The fifth correct response to text us to the number
six one seven three six to two thirteen eighty five
with the correct answer along with the keyword trivia, We'll
win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
Exchange Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
By the way, we can't discuss the minimum wage without
mentioning my favorite minimum wage policy across the whole country,
which is California's because they have a minimum wage and
then they have a fast foodie. I still don't know
that enough time has gone by to really measure this,
but again, California has a sixteen fifty statewide minimum wage,
(19:14):
but if you work for a fast food restaurant, you
get twenty. So congratulations to those who are working at
Mickeyd's in California and making more than other minimum wage rolls.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Quick break, Wall Street Watch coming up.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
Next, bringing the latest financial news straight.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
To your radio.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch. A complete
look at what's moving market so far today right here
on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 7 (20:00):
Markets trading modestly higher one day after the Dow closed
at a record high yesterday. At the moment, the Dow
is up by nearly half a percent, or two hundred
and eighteen points. SMP five hundred up over two tenths
of a percent or fifteen points higher. NASDAC up just
over a tenth of a percent or thirty three points higher.
Rusted two thousand is also up over a tenth of
(20:21):
a percent. Tenure Treasure reeled up two basis points at
four point one nine to one percent day, and crude
oil down about half a percent, trading at fifty eight
dollars a barrel after early gains, and Video shares are
now only edging higher after the AI and chip Giant
said it would begin shipping new in faster AI chips
yesterday at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. The
(20:44):
rubenships are being manufactured and will be shipped two customers
including Microsoft and Amazon, in the second half of the year,
and Video also unveiled unveiled new autonomous vehicle software. Meanwhile,
competitor AMD also now it's a new chip at CEES
for use in smaller corporate data centers. However, am D
(21:05):
shares are now down over three percent Elsewhere, Metas said
this morning that it's delaying the international expansion of its
ray band display glasses due to inventory constraints and unprecedented demand.
In the US, Meta shares down over half a percent,
and Ford said this morning that it's US vehicle sales
increased six percent last year, marking the automaker's best annual
(21:27):
sales since twenty nineteen. Ford finished the year as the
third largest automaker behind Toyota and General Motors, Ford shares
arising over one percent. Today, I'm Tucker Silva and that
is Wall Street Watching. In the previous segment, we asked
you the trivia question who is the original host of
Wheel of Fortune? That would be Chuck Woolery. Patrese from
(21:49):
Summer's Connecticut is our winner today, taking on the Financial
Exchange Show t shirt. Congrats to Patrese. We played trivia
every day here in the Financial Exchange. See complete contest
rules at Financial Changshow dot com.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
I've never even heard of that guy.
Speaker 5 (22:04):
Wow, Yeah, I didn't either. I had to google him.
Speaker 7 (22:07):
Look familiar.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
There's a piece in the Wall Street Journal today about
older workers looking for jobs, and I've never been over
the age of fifty five, but i have to say
working with people who I'm hoping to get there. Not convinced,
but I'm hoping. I can think of little that would
be more stressful than needing a job at the age
of over fifty five and losing your existing job at
(22:33):
that stage. Yeah, there might be other more stress like
young children that might be a little slightly more stressful stage.
But when you are, you know, the parent of young children,
you're not facing the same agism that you are when
you are a sixty two year old looking for work
in the tech sector, for example. And you know, everybody
listening right now who is of that age has experienced
(22:57):
the agism in the in the late market and how
difficult it can be to find and retain a job
and make your skill set look appealing to an employer.
Speaker 3 (23:05):
So I don't think it's any secret that.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
That exists, and the protections there just you know, aren't
terribly helpful. But the piece of the Wall Street Journal,
I think, is an interesting expose into five people who
found themselves in that type of situation, either laid off
or had retired and looking to get back into work,
and it really outlines, you know, just the lengths they
had to go to and the challenges they faced when
trying to look for look for a new job in
(23:30):
that whatever you want to call it, second half of
your career, last last quarter of your working career, and
it spans all sorts of different industries and work. But
you know, one common theme that I saw throughout them
was it really required changing your expectations for work, right like,
in order for almost all of them to find a job,
(23:52):
it did not entail them going right back into the
industry that they worked in for some cases three decades
because they just weren't found to be as desirable in
those same industries. And you know, there's one case where
a guy was working in oil and gas ended up
taking a job working at a local wine shop before
finally getting connected back into the oil and gas sector.
(24:14):
Several people who could only find part time consulting gigs,
and others who have had to kind of completely revamp
their lifestyle based on a change in that career path
and what to do about all of it.
Speaker 4 (24:27):
It was, you know, interesting some of the cases that
you see here, and there was different methods use here.
Whether it's that oil and gas executive sort of doing
the traditional sort of networking sort of thing.
Speaker 5 (24:39):
Or you've got others that just you know.
Speaker 4 (24:42):
Cold emailed and in the insurance agency or the insurance
sector and got a job there driving for Uber, kind
of doing some gig work. There all different alternatives out there,
but interesting nonetheless to hear sort of the different stories.
And it's a definitely a problem that you talk to
a lot of our clients who are in that age demographic.
(25:04):
You have to be specific about what you're looking at
for a job opportunity.
Speaker 2 (25:09):
Well, and the reality is for a lot of people
that are at that stage, it's kind of a time
period that you banked on saving the most amount of money. Sure, right,
Like for most of people in that age demographic, kids
are off the payroll. If you've done paying for college,
then the loans are out there and you might still
(25:29):
have to help out the loans, but the college itself
is oftentimes done with at that stage if you were
helping with it, and it's like, Okay, this is my
last ten years to really focus.
Speaker 5 (25:37):
Kind of the peak of your earnings power too.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
Like how do I maximize my retirement savings? And that
is certainly a very common part of a financial plan
is Okay, I'm past all these expenses, i have my
career stability, now, I've got all of my experience, I'm
making my peak earnings. Now I'm going to save for retirement.
I don't think enough planning work though, goes into the
contingent paul and understanding what the contingencies look like, right, Okay, yeah,
(26:05):
if I can only make it five years in this
career instead.
Speaker 3 (26:08):
Of ten, like I'm planning how do I make things work?
Speaker 2 (26:12):
What are the rules if I'm laid off at fifty eight,
I'm not quite fifty nine and a half yet all
my money's in retirement savings because I used all the
cash for college education and paying down my mortgage. What
do I do in those situations and how do I
plan for them? Certainly that is part of what something
like a target date fund in a four to one
K attempts to safeguard you against. It is preparing for
(26:35):
that specific type of situation where your investments are getting
more conservative.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
But obviously there is.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
A lot more that goes into it than just saying, oh,
my portfolio has become more conservative, and so, yeah, check
that box. I got laid off, but I will be
just fine. Obviously, the unemployment rate's been increasing slightly. We
don't know what's in store for twenty twenty six, but
I've been talking a lot about resolutions on the program
so far this year. And one of the big stressors
(27:03):
that I know hits at families specifically, hits it married
couples specifically, is the finances. Now, oftentimes there's one part
of the spouse that doesn't fully understand the finances because
I don't know about your experience, Paul, but in my
experience there's usually one part of the couple that likes
to handle it and the other one that likes to
take a hands off approach. But having somebody in the
(27:24):
middle there that can help explain it and play in
English and advise you on the things you might not
be talking about. Is where a financial advisor comes into place.
If you've never worked with one, If you have and
you're not getting the right answers to your questions, or
you just want to kick the tires and get a
sense of it, give the folks at Armstrong Advisory Group
of call. We have offices located scattered throughout New England,
(27:47):
happy to sit down with you in person or if
you're listening anywhere across the country, we're happy to sit
down via zoom and.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
Explain what it is we do and who we do
it for.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
The number is eight hundred three nine three four zero
zero one for the Armstrong Advisory Group. You can book
a time for us to call you back at Armstrong
Advisory dot com. But that phone number once again eight
hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
Speaker 1 (28:10):
The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong advisory group a
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
advisory services.
Speaker 2 (28:26):
The other piece of this labor market story that I
think is going to gain more traction every year that
goes by is the state of hiring right now, because
I keep hearing from employers that before they are allowed
to consider hiring somebody, Salesforce implemented this.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
I could be misquoting that, so let me double check
on it.
Speaker 2 (28:46):
But I know there's a big tech company that basically
said you must justify in writing why a AI cannot
do the job that you are hiring for right right,
And I think that's going to face more and more
scrutiny by employers of Hey, we have all these expensive tools.
We've been whether it's a good idea or not, we've
(29:06):
been plowing hundreds of millions of dollars into this new
tech development that is supposed to be paying dividends. So
explain to me before you go hire a human being
for whatever it is. Six one hundred and fifty thousand
dollars a year. Tell me why our in house systems
that we developed using AI can't do that job. And
(29:29):
that's going to be an interesting new part of the workforce.
Speaker 4 (29:32):
It's interesting you read this piece from Bloomberg and you
start to extrapolate it out for the labor market in
twenty twenty six. Gee, there are certainly some areas that
there won't be a tremendous amount of demand for in
college entry level or college recent college graduates and entry
level workers. That's an area that I keep coming back to,
And maybe it's out of selfish bias, because I myself
(29:54):
was hired to work customer service at an eight hundred
number for financial services firm out of college, and I
just I feel like those types of jobs for sure,
one hundred percent. If I was in the same boat
today that I was, then I would not be hired.
It was at you know, Bank of America, Merrill Echine.
With the resources that they have at their disposal, I'm
sure they're investing heavily, if not already deploying AI t
(30:17):
be that customer service worker.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
I mean, heck, I was on the mass DMV or
RMB site the other day taking a look at my
vehicle registration and an AI chatbot window popped up. And
for the state of Massachusetts. That's crazy, say, are usually
twenty five years before I can answer your questions here.
By the way, don't rely on the answers because I
might not get them. All right, this is powered by
artificial intelligence. The Commonwealth of Massachusetts is adapting an AI chatpot.
Speaker 5 (30:43):
Maybe we won't have to go to the DMV anymore.
Speaker 3 (30:46):
I doubt it.
Speaker 7 (30:46):
By the way, it was a shopify who they want
to make new hires and less managers can prove AI
is incapable of doing the job.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
Wow, well, at least it started with an S. I
guess I'm going to justify it that way. Let's take it.
Let's take a quick break. When we come back a
little bit. Stat Roulette is next.
Speaker 1 (31:06):
The Financial Exchange Show podcast drops every day on Apple, Spotify,
and iHeartRadio. Hit that subscribe button and leave us a
five star review. You're listening to the Financial Exchange Radio network.
The Financial Exchange is Life on Series XM's Business Radio
Channel one thirty two weekdays from eleven to noon. Get
the latest business and financial news from across the country
(31:29):
and around the world and keep up to date on
how it might affect your wallet. That's the Financial Exchange
weekdays from eleven to noon on Series XM's business radio
Channel one thirty two Face He's the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 7 (31:46):
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Speaker 5 (32:00):
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Speaker 3 (32:22):
It's time for a bit of stacker.
Speaker 2 (32:24):
Let here, Paul, I'm gonna kick things off with a
charming new technology called brew Bird. If you have ever
been dissatisfied with your company, you know giant coffeemaker that
churns out nasty cups of coffee that sit there all day,
and then you're drinking the stale.
Speaker 3 (32:43):
Coffee for four hours.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Brew Bird has the solution for you at the very
affordable price of ten thousand dollars per machine. It is
the newest addition to offices at companies like Salesforce, LinkedIn
and Gap in the Bay Area. And unlike it's about
the size of a Cureig, and it does make single cups,
(33:06):
but unlike the Cuig, it's going to grind the beans
on site. And then what was the process that I
heard that I didn't understand why it matters. I can
understand how freshly ground beans are a little bit more important,
But unlike Kuriger and Espresso, Brewberty us whole beans and
(33:26):
precise extraction times.
Speaker 3 (33:28):
Does anybody know what that means?
Speaker 2 (33:30):
No, neither do I I'm not sure, but I think
what we should do is probably just cancel all bonuses
next year and go with one of these instead, maybe
a couple. Actually, just hey, I understand that people like cash,
but let's go with the ten thousand dollars coffee machine instead.
I would imagine that even Starbucks doesn't spend ten thousand
(33:50):
dollars on their coffee machines for their stores. I guess
they pay humans to do it. You might be able
to hire a part time barista for cheaper. I think
there are better options than this. It does remind me
of another San Francisco born idea, the slim silhouette. Anybody
know what I'm talking about there? That would be a
trash can? That was that one?
Speaker 3 (34:12):
A design contest in San Francisco never actually.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Got off the ground, but they put out an RFP
for ideas for a new designed trash can for the
city public trash cans.
Speaker 3 (34:23):
The prototypes came.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
At eighteen thousand, eight hundred dollars each, whereas once they
had plans to mass development developed these things, they were
gonna get them down to three thousand bucks apiece.
Speaker 3 (34:33):
So never actually happened.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
As I don't think this new ten thousand dollars coffee
machine is going to really happen for a lot of people.
But yeah, it seems like a pretty preposterous designer.
Speaker 5 (34:45):
What a garbage idea?
Speaker 3 (34:47):
Yeah, okay, what do you have for us?
Speaker 5 (34:48):
Paul catch that?
Speaker 3 (34:50):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (34:50):
I got the joke, all right.
Speaker 4 (34:51):
Nice mystery trader on Calshi made four hundred thousand dollars
betting on.
Speaker 3 (34:58):
A polymarket polymarket.
Speaker 4 (35:01):
Thank you for that very important correction on Maduro's downfall.
I had read another story about CALCI today. This is
a website similar to Calshie's, but the competitor direct competitor
of them, poly market where you can make bets on different.
Speaker 2 (35:18):
All sorts of crazy things like the US taking President
Maduro exactly.
Speaker 4 (35:22):
And so this was a twelvefold return on the investment.
It was wagers that were made back in December as
to whether or not the US would invade Venezuela by
January thirty first, and they can made the first bet
on December twenty sevens then only ramped up bets over
the course of the next week as tensions mounted between Washington.
Speaker 5 (35:43):
DC and Venezuela.
Speaker 4 (35:45):
And it's getting to a point where, I mean, I
understand some of the betting market stuff on sports stuff,
I've been around that for years. But the fact that
you can bet on who's going to die in stranger
things like these reek of insider trading, the risks out there.
Speaker 3 (36:02):
Well, and furthering that.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
They don't track who the people are, right, so they
tell you who made the bet but it's not even
clear to me that polymarket knows who made the bet.
It's a mystery trader that gambled four hundred thousand dollars
on here. It's not clear to me if you register.
So if you open an account at Schwab or Fidelity
or Vanguard or any of these big places, you have
(36:26):
to give a whole bunch of information like rise.
Speaker 5 (36:28):
Yeah, where do you do?
Speaker 3 (36:29):
What do you do for work?
Speaker 2 (36:30):
It's really unclear to me that that is required with
any of these things. And look, I know I talk
about the benefits of deregulation across a whole bunch of things. Uh,
And I think that there's a happy medium here, But
you cannot have gambling websites where what has the real
(36:51):
look of an insider getting information about plans that the
White House was forming, then placing bets on some website
and screwing a whole bunch of people and making what
do you say, twelve times four hundred thousand dollars on
the idea that this is going to happen. Now, maybe
he just got lucky, But I don't know a whole
lot of people that wager four hundred thousand dollars with
the hopes of getting lucky.
Speaker 5 (37:11):
Well, when you're say, screwing a bunch of people, I
guess I can see that.
Speaker 3 (37:14):
The other side of that trade, you got screwed.
Speaker 5 (37:16):
That's true. That's true.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
That's why insider trading is a problem is because there
is always a winner and a loser to that bet
that you are making. You are buying the shares from
somebody else who is selling them, and if you don't
have that insider information, then you get screwed on the deal.
And I have a whole bunch of problems that they
stayed in.
Speaker 3 (37:37):
I was thinking of.
Speaker 4 (37:37):
The house perspective, like it was the polymarket paying it up.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
But you're right to create these odds from other people
taking the bets. I hate to go on a long
tangent about this, but the betting markets are out there
are absolutely plagued with scams and problems, not to mention
the addictive side of it, and it just it just
needs to be policed better. I'm not saying don't allow it.
(38:01):
I'm just saying, don't allow people to insider trade and
deceive people.
Speaker 3 (38:06):
Quick break.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
For the rest of the day. Markets are holding on
to their gains. For now, we'll have a full recap
and the Joltz Report out tomorrow here on the Financial
Exchange
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