February 13, 2026 • 37 mins
Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss a market that appears stable on the surface but is experiencing significant volatility beneath it. They examine sharp sector rotations, AI-driven disruption fears, and what sustained churn without broad index movement could signal for investors. The conversation also covers mounting Social Security funding concerns, shifting retirement realities, and unexpected economic headlines — from rising electricity costs to a surge in organized cargo theft.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
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(00:20):
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Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong, Your exclusive look
at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
(00:42):
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donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada,
(01:06):
and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Mike, you ever watch TV?
Speaker 3 (01:12):
I have bip.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
You ever sit down on the couch.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
And watch TV?
Speaker 4 (01:18):
No?
Speaker 2 (01:18):
You ever sit down the couch?
Speaker 4 (01:19):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (01:20):
Yeah, yeah, both.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Okay. You're sitting on the couch and you're like, let
me pull up this app and see if I can
watch this, okay, and you're kind of like, Eh, there's
nothing really interesting there. I'm not really that's not really
hitting it. Let me open up a different app and
you go to a different streaming app and you're flipping
through and you're like, no, I've seen that four times. No,
(01:41):
that doesn't look good. And you're flipping through and next
thing you know, you spent half an hour. You haven't
watched anything, but you've just kind of been going back
and forth. They're like, eh, maybe this maybe that, No,
I don't think. So that's today's market. We have crossed
from positive to negative territory five separate times already today
(02:02):
just up down, up, down, up, just back and forth.
Like this market it wants to do something. It just
doesn't know what it wants to do today, which I
guess is better than yesterday when it knew what it
wanted to do, and that was sell off pretty hard.
Speaker 4 (02:15):
Right.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
So today, as we sit here at this very moment,
and again we're we're minute to minute right now with
how this puppy's moving. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up,
in fact, it's up one hundred and thirty nine points.
The standard in pores five hundred is up twenty five points,
the Nasdaq Composite is up forty four points. So you
(02:36):
got about a quarter to a third percent rally happening
in stocks. Not enough to make it yesterday's losses, but
we'll take gains over losses any day of the week,
unless you're a short seller, and then you're like, no,
I wanted to go down. But those are like the
people that show up to the casino and play on
the don't pass line on the UH, on the uh,
I'm totally blanking on the name right now. If you're
(02:57):
talking about spoils craps table, then no crapstaate, you're basically
betting the house there you go, snake eyes, No, well yes, yes,
so in any case, uh, this is what we have
going on in equity markets. The ten year Treasury continuates
migration down down four point two basis points to four
point h six two percent.
Speaker 5 (03:17):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
This has brought mortgage rates in a little bit further
this year this week so far, thirty year fixed rate
according to Mortgage News Daily, now down to six point
one percent for the national average, so getting within sniffing
distance of six percent there. We've got other markets on
the move as well. Today, Dollar indexes up point one
four percent to ninety six ninety seven, gold is up
(03:39):
fifty five dollars nouns back above five thousand, five thousand
and three. On the nose, we've got crude oil down
thirteen cents a barrel to sixty two to seventy one,
triple a national average. For gas prices also coming in
four tens of percent to two ninety four. We've rallied
from about two eighty up to two ninety four. So
gas price is up about fourteen fifteen cents in the
(04:01):
last month, mostly on Middle East in Iran fears at
this point. And so that is what is moving markets today.
Let me tell you what's moving just about every person
online who is involved in business in any way, whether
you're an employer or an employer, whether you're you know,
(04:23):
a sole practitioner or not. Matt Schumer, who quite Honestly,
I don't know who Matt Schumer is. He's a dude.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
CEO of some company that never has heard of. It's
fine of doesn't have a Wikipedia page. That's kind of
my benchmark, right, Matt Schumer is have a Wikipedia page.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
He's a dude, and he works in the AI space,
and he on February ninth, about four days ago, wrote
a a post on x titled something Big is Happening.
Speaker 6 (04:49):
Eighty million views.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
It's got eighty million views, which is why I say,
like anyone involved in jobs is paying attention to this,
and the whole premise of something big is happening, it's
actually like when you print it out, it's like seven
or eight pages. It's long. It may have been like
partially or entirely written by AI, but I don't think
that matters. But basically what he says is, look, I've
(05:11):
noticed a change in what is going on in AI
right now and it's going to impact just about everyone, which,
by the way, feels like Matt might be listening to
our show because this is what we started saying last week.
So if he's a Financial Exchange listener, love your work, Matt,
and thanks for you know.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
Do we want to read the piece about coding that
I found to be fascinating and just really compelling it
and really driving the last couple of years.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Here it is. I'll quote here, and hopefully this is
the same part that you picked out. Quote. I am
no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job.
I describe what I want built in plain English, and
it just appears not a rough draft. I need to
fix the finished thing. I tell the AI what I want.
I walk away from my computer for four hours and
come back to find the work done, done well, then
better done, better than I would have done it myself,
(05:59):
with no corrections need. A couple months ago, I was
going back and forth with the AI, guiding it and
making edits. Now I just described the outcome and leave.
So he's talking about, you know, coding to build apps
and programs and different things, and it goes He.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Then goes on, I think there's another part that's worth
talking about here, because I don't know how to design software,
no no idea. It goes further than that too. It
figures out the user flow, the design, all of it.
It does it. It writes tens of thousands of lines
of code then and This is the part that would
(06:34):
have been unthinkable a year ago. It opens the app itself,
It clicks through the buttons, It tests the features. It
uses the app the way a person would. If it
doesn't like how something looks or feels, it goes back
and changes it on its own. It iterates like a
developer would, fixing and refining until it's satisfied. Only once
it has decided the app meets its own standards, does
(06:56):
it come back to me and says it's ready for
you to test. And I test it. It's usually perfect.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
The other piece that I'll read here and then we
can actually discuss more. But I tried AI and it
wasn't that good. People will say I hear this constantly,
and I understand it because it used to be true.
If you tried chat GPT in twenty twenty three or
early twenty four and thought this makes stuff up or
this isn't that impressive, you were right. The early versions
were genuinely limited. They hallucinated, They confidently said things that
(07:21):
were nonsense. That was two years ago in AI time.
That is ancient history. And one other addendum that I'll
point out. If you are using the free version of
AI you're not getting what this guy is is usually
either the paid versions are more advanced and further along.
So on this last one, which I think is the
most important one, the pace at which this is iterating
(07:42):
and changing is is so rapid. And the comparison that
I like to make here is if you decided that
you didn't want to fly on an airplane because you
saw like what the Wright brothers did. That's kind of
like saying, well, AI was bad two years ago, and
so I'm not gonna, you know, use it furthermore. And
this I think is made by this piece as well.
(08:04):
I've read so many of these in the last few
weeks that I don't know what's what. But when we
talk about using AI, we're not talking about like using
it like a search engine. Think about using it in
terms of can I build something to replace a part
of my job or life that I genuinely dislike. So
(08:25):
not hey, show me Chinese restaurants within two miles of
my house. You can use Google for that and it
might be better. Like that's not what we're talking about here,
Like you don't need AI to find Chinese restaurants. What
you could ask AI to do is build me instead
of doing this manually. Because you could do this manually.
(08:46):
You could say, locate all the Chinese restaurants within ten
miles of my house and then build me the route
map that is most efficient for getting to all of them,
so that I can try the fried rice at each
one and figure out which is better. And it will
go and be like, Okay, I need to access like
Google Maps API and do that, and here's the traffic
(09:08):
patterns at these times of day, and then it will
try a whole bunch of different things. Or you could say, hey,
I'm trying to figure out I just like got all
this smart home stuff installed. Build me automations that do X,
Y and z for this automation app that I use,
and it will go and do that for you. Or
if you're working, let's say that you are a lawyer, Hey,
(09:34):
here is the legal brief from the opposition. Figure out
how to poke holes in this for me. Have it
do that stuff for you instead of what's six times six?
Or make me a picture of a monkey and a
bob sled Like This is what I think people are
missing on AI is It's at the point now where
(09:55):
if you ask it to do complex things again, you.
You have to do a lot of legwork to get
it to work the way that you want. What I
mean by that is there's a whole series of different
prompts in different context that you have to give it
as background. But once you learn how to do that,
I'm telling you it's and I have done a one
(10:17):
to eighty in the last month because of what I've seen,
It's coming for us sooner than people thought.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
Another question about his experience Matt's experience specifically, is his
success with teaching it, is his success with having it
code things for him dependent on his pre existing expertise.
Since he already taught it how to do all these things,
he already prompted it probably three hundred times that know,
this button doesn't work the way I want it to,
this is the style I want, This is how I
(10:45):
want it done. I wonder how many hours have gone
into him training his AI system the way that he
specifically needs it to work.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
It is to a certain extent, but remember there are
thousands of other people with those skills that are doing
the same thing. Yeah, and they're going to be enough
where like you want to talk about potential roles that
might exist over the next couple of years, like an
AI trainer or builder for a company who's a consultant
who comes in and does this stuff for a company
(11:13):
for like six months. Yeah, I can absolutely see that
being a highly paid, transformative position for a period of time.
Wild stuff that we're getting to, and I can't do
it all myself, but I see what people are doing now,
and I see how they're doing it, and my biggest
thing is like, gee, I wish I had all of
(11:34):
these hours in the day to play around with it
myself in this fashion because I don't. But I see
what's being done and I'm like, oh, there's something there.
And I'm not just talking about how people write about it,
like you watch the actual videos that are being put
out of someone being like, hey do this AI, and
then you know, time lapses and shows you what it does,
(11:54):
and it's like, here's what it built.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
Oh okay, I stay impressive.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
See it now, quick break here, when we come back,
let's do trivia and then we're talking social security right
after this.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our
page and stay up to date on breaking business news
all morning. Long Face is the Financial Exchange radio.
Speaker 6 (12:17):
Network This segment of the Financial Exchange is brought to
you by the US Virgin Islands Department of Tourism. Experience
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time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange. In Sunday
(13:00):
marks the sixty eighth annual Daytona five one hundred from
the Daytona International Speedway. William Byron won the big race
last year, as you all out there no and Joey
Logano is the favorite to win this year. So our
trivia question today which driver has won the most Daytona
five hundreds? Once again, which driver has won the most
(13:23):
Daytona five hundreds? Be the fourth person today to text
us at six one seven three six two thirteen eighty
five with correct answer along with keyword trivia, and you
win a Financial Exchange Show T shirt.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Once again.
Speaker 6 (13:37):
The fourth correct response to text us to the number
six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five with
correct answer along with the keyword trivia will win that
T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show
dot com.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Social Security could run out of money in just six years,
even sooner than originally feared. So we're talking twenty thirty
two now, Yeah, and Mike, when we're talking about midterm elections,
do you ever hear social Security mentioned?
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Not yet?
Speaker 2 (14:08):
No. But here's the thing. The senators that are up
for election this fall, they're gonna have to deal with this.
So someone should be asking them about.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
It, I would think, so I'll ask them about it.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
According to new projections from the CBO, the Old Agent
Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is now projected to run out
of money in twenty thirty two. That's a year earlier
than the estimate from last year. And actually it is
on part though with the forecast that Social Security Chief
Actuary Karen Glenn made in August.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
Is this in part due to the tax cuts most
the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Glenn Head quote here. Glenn had said the provisions in
last year's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included a
temporary enhanced tax deduction for seniors, would have a material
impact on the trust fund's finance.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
So if you're not remember how it was announced that
there'd be no tax on Social Security. Didn't really get there.
What we got instead was an additional deduction for those
over the age of sixty five. But that does reduce
overall taxation, especially on a lot of people social Security benefits,
and so the benefits are less taxable, but the money
will run out sooner.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
We're basically somewhere between six and seven years from this happening. Yep,
do it. If you're sitting in your car, don't do it.
But otherwise you can. You know, it's guys, it's coming,
and no one wants to deal with it. And by
the way, remember this is if everything goes well. Yeah,
if you hit a recession, that it's a lot faster.
(15:35):
If you hit a recession, it's faster because you have
less payroll tax being collected. Yeah, and so like this
is coming and no one is talking about it.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
And to be really clear, there is no path to
this being resolved without changes to the program. Like if
you're wondering, well, what if the economy gets really good, No,
there's no means by which the economy can get so good.
Or the only one that I could think of it,
which it was too late to deal with, would be
way more people that are like eighteen years old entering
(16:08):
the country and getting jobs.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
Right, if you increase immigration by like six million eighteen
year olds a year for the next five or six years,
maybe it does something. I'm still not saying it thirty six,
you know, like I don't even know if that does
anything like meaningful. Still, just it's we're too late in
the game. It's either gonna be we're just gonna change
the rules and the trust fund doesn't have to be,
(16:31):
you know, fully funded, we're just gonna pay it out
of whatever, or it's going to be some combination of
benefit cuts, tax hikes, and increase the age of the polease.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
Don't let your lotmakers get away with this. No one cares,
no one, Like, no one talks about this. Yeah, nobody
gives a darn it gives a hoot.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Yeah, there's there's no hooton. There's no hooton. Let's see
peace from barons. With stocks still riding high, now is
the time to rebalance. Maybe maybe not okay, Like again,
one size fits all financial advice is generally not great.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Well, also because I love that we have an accompanying
piece that is all about how having thirty three percent
of your portfolio in seven companies is less risky than
it sounds. So one of you, one of them is
telling you sell everything, diversify more. The other one's telling
you definitely don't diversify more.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Here's the idea diversification. The whole premise of it is
that not everything moves at the same rate, and so
if you're well diversified, you won't do the worst out
of any asset class, and you won't do the best diversification.
I think a lot of people misunderstand. They're like, oh,
if I diversify, like that's the best way to generate returns. No,
diversification is the best way to reduce the spread in
(17:51):
the variation of returns from year to year. But remember
when there is a market crash, correlations increase, typically between
US and international equities, US and commodities, real estate, like
these correlations increase, you know, like it's it's just something
that happens. So even during you know, very sharp downturns
(18:13):
in markets, diversification doesn't necessarily save you. Then change movie.
You know, having diversification between different asset classes can help sometimes.
But the whole premise of diversification is if some of
my stuff goes up, other stuff is going down, and
if some goes down, some is going up, and so
that should balance out and make it a less volatile
(18:34):
ride over time, which can make it more tolerable to
go through. But it doesn't inherently produce better returns.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
Yeah, not necessarily.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
And I don't know that there's ever a right or
wrong time to diversify, Like just because stocks are up,
it's not like do it now, Like I don't know,
they could keep going up. Maybe now's not the right time.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
It's your February reminder that if one article that you
read in any while your journal, Barons or otherwise place
causes you to completely rethink your portfolio and you probably
had the wrong portfolio begin with, take a walk and
see if you still want to do it.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Good idea quick break when we return We've got the
trivia answer in Wall Street.
Speaker 7 (19:13):
Watch, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
Every day.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 5 (19:29):
Time now for Wall Street Watch a complete look at
what's moving markets so far today Right here on the
Financial Exchange Radio.
Speaker 6 (19:37):
Network, markets are trading modestly. Hires. Wall Street reacts to
the consumer Price Index for the month of January, where
consumer prices climbed zero point two percent software than forecasts
of zero point three percent. Traders are also continuing to
weigh concerns around AI disruption, impacting various sectors, including real estate, trucking,
in software. Right now, the Dow is of three to
(19:59):
ten seven percent to one hundred and forty nine points,
SMP five hundred, up about four tenths of a percent,
Nasdaq is up only twenty eight points, about a tenth
of a percent. Russell two thousand rallying one point seven percent.
Ten year Treasure reeled down four basis points at four
point zero five six percent, and crude oil down about
a quarter percent, training its sixty two dollars and sixty
(20:22):
seven cents a barrel. Applied Materials rallying nine percent after
the maker of Semiconductor Equipment posted stronger than expected quarterly results,
lifted by soaring demand for AI computing. Meanwhile, Instacart stock
is soaring eight percent after the company's impressive quarterly results
ease concerns over increasing competition and the grocery delivery market
(20:43):
from the likes of Uber Eats, Amazon and door Dash.
Elsewhere shares a roku or up about five percent after
the video streaming company posted fourth quarter results that beat
expectations and offered strong guidance. The company also said it
expects to roll out premium subscription bundles the year yay
More bundles and online travel agency Expedia posted solid quarterly results. However,
(21:06):
the company identified emerging AI powered platforms as a potential risk.
Expedia stock is now down over six percent. I'm Tucker
Silva and that is Wall Street Watch. In the previous segment,
we asked you the trivia question, which driver is one
of the most Daytona five hundreds. Well that would be
Richard Petty. He healds the record with seven Daytona five
(21:27):
hundred victories. George from Wall Fame, Mass is our winner
today taking on my Financial Exchange show T shirt. Congrats
to George and we play trivia every day here on
the Financial Exshane. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange
Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
Either of you big Richard Petty fans?
Speaker 6 (21:44):
No, now, it was before my time.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
You guys know what his nickname is, the King Thuck King.
Speaker 6 (21:49):
You know what they've referred with the references in cars?
Speaker 2 (21:54):
Oh, yes, it's hang on the isn't just the King? Yes?
But he because he plays one of the cars in
Cars to I think it is or is it the
car one?
Speaker 5 (22:06):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (22:06):
Yeah, the og it's in the original. Yeah. Uh. Anyways,
it's enough enough. H Richard Petty took King the King
Weathers Strip Weathers. There you go.
Speaker 3 (22:18):
There you have it.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
Mike, you haven't said anything. I get the sentence. Apparently
he's not a cars fan.
Speaker 6 (22:23):
You know nothing about cars nor a Nascar You don't
what you've never seen the Pixar movie Cars.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
I have seen it once.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Wow. You have three kids too?
Speaker 3 (22:31):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Interesting, it's kind of shocking.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
Bunch of girls not that into cars.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Yah, it's good. Everyone likes cars here. You what has
surprised us most about retirement? That's the title of a
piece today from the Wall Street Journal. And what has
surprised people the most about retirement.
Speaker 3 (22:49):
I like this piece because it describes a phenomenon that
we see all the time, which is oftentimes with a
married couple that retire, one of them has a pretty
experience than the other does not. And to me, what
the lesson is from this, So it was a couple
Steve and Karen. Karen seemed very fulfilled. Steve felt like
(23:11):
there was just this well he talks about it a
vacuum in what his work life previously took up. And here,
I think is the best solution that you can come
up with, which is talk about retirement with your family
before well before you get there, and figure out your plan,
because have things that you want to do, not like
(23:32):
just you know, travel, like have things that you want
to do every day, because otherwise Steve's experience here even
he'd had plenty of things that he wanted to do
and got fulfillment out of. But it seems to me
that his experience, that vacuum that left avoid led to
him experiencing this quote. Nothing prepared me for the gnawing
(23:54):
unease of pivoting from saving to spending.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
And this I think is the biggest thing that I
tend to hear, which is, for forty years going into retirement,
it's max out your four oh one k, you know,
save as much as you can. And then suddenly you
turn sixty five or sixty seven or whatever age you
turn when you retire, and some little young nerd like
me walks in the room and is like, hey, it's
(24:18):
time for you to start spending that money. And you're like, Chuck,
are you insane? This is my retirement savings. And it's like, no,
that's right, you're you're at Your retirement goes.
Speaker 3 (24:29):
Against every you know, yankee cheap, you know, saverer mentality
that you have built up in your life, and it
becomes a real problem for people, even in cases where
they are fully financially prepared for retirement, that gnawing unease
eats away at them at times. If first of all,
(24:49):
if you're preparing for retirement, do what I said, talk
about it. Figure out what your priorities are. Talk to
your talk to your loved ones, talk to your spouse
if you have one, and figure out what it's actually
going to mean to you. If you who could use
some help on the financial side of it, then that's
where Armstrong can come in is talking through what those
priorities are and then putting a price tag on them
(25:11):
and helping a professional. Having a professional help you guide
through what the savings rate needs to be, how much
you need to get to before you can pull that
type of retirement off. But more often than not, that's
what professional advisors are doing. Is not telling you whether
or not you can retire, but explain to you what
type of retirement you can afford. Number four Armstrong Advisor
Groups eight hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
(25:33):
You can book your free consultation by calling us. You
can go to Armstrong Advisory dot com from more information
and book a time for us to call you back.
But that number again is eight hundred three nine three
for zero zero one.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
advisory services.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
I know we got other stuff to talk about with
you know, rising electricity costs and does anyone want to
buy evs? Anymore. And uh, you know there's not enough
cows in the US. But I got to talk about crabs.
You do it piece in the New York Times crab
Heist puts spotlight on surge of cargo thefts.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Is nowhere.
Speaker 2 (26:19):
You're going there, going to the piece that you put
in the stack? I remember, now, yep, that one I
blocked that What happened?
Speaker 3 (26:28):
So this entire stack have no recollection.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
So here's the thing. Basically, like a bunch of scammers
like hacked into the like email system of a cargo
shipper and found a shipment of three hundred and twenty
five dollars three hundred twenty five thousand dollars of frozen
snow crab that was leaving a warehouse on July fifteenth
in Worcestern, Massachusetts.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
How do you think you've got the network to unload
three hundred and twenty five thousand dollars worth of snow crew?
Speaker 2 (26:53):
This is my question. Like if you go out and
you steal TVs, it's like okay, like they don't go
you can figure out a way to like unload them.
I'm sure over a fixed period of time. If you've
got a bunch of frozen snow crab. You have to
do one of two things. You've got to get a
giant freezer to put it in, which someone's gonna be like, hey,
(27:13):
where'd all the snow crab come from? Dude or b
You've got to sell it quickly. You can't just sit
on You can't just be like you know all you
know breaking bad where they get the storage unit, you're
just sitting on the money like ooh, this is nice.
You've got to figure out how to unload that. And
I don't know anyone who's just like lurking around being
(27:35):
like yeah, you know what I'd really like like I'd
like like sixteen tons of stolen snow crab? Like what
do you do with it?
Speaker 3 (27:44):
Lord of War with Nicholas Cage, Yes, remember the scene
where he crashes the plane and he needs to get
rid of all the weapons so he can't be proven guilty. Yeah,
I'm just envisioning that, but with snow crab and it
doesn't work, Like what what.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
Do you do with this? Go around to every buffet
in the re just being like, hey, we can give
you a half priced crab, Like no, they're can be
like I've never met you You're not a normal distributor.
Why would I buy from you.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
Yeah, either there's a bunch of rotten snow crab sitting
around somewhere, or this heist was performed by, you know,
the one percent of Americans who know how to deal
with snow crab or frozen seafood generally.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Again, because this is not an isolated thing. One of
the biggest recent haulls was a truckload of processed lobster
meet valued at four hundred thousand dollars. It disappeared in
December after being picked up from a warehouse in Taunt, Massachusetts,
never reaching the Costco wholesale locations in Illinois and Minnesota.
There was another one where the lobster.
Speaker 6 (28:41):
Goes in this backyard. I mean it's been freaking freezing
this whole time, just thrown on the snow.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
There you go. Remember the egg you know, call them
snow crabs for no reason.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
There's the Pennsylvania egg heist too, Remember that one thereat
thousand Hey oh no, sorry, yeah, one hundred thousand eggs
in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
I mean that's even worse because like you break though
and they're gone. Yeah, I just you can't put Humpty
dumpty back together again.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
It's pretty fascinating that this stuff is happening.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
Backyards, just covered in lobster and crabs.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
This stuff has to the dog gonna go. It has
to get shipped over seas, right, it's got to just
a cargo boat like it.
Speaker 1 (29:17):
Yeah, it's gone.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
It has to get shipped over seas.
Speaker 3 (29:20):
If you are a a heist expert on frozen seafood,
text the show at six one, seven, three, six, two
thirteen eighty five. We want to know how you did it?
Speaker 2 (29:31):
Yes, in your location, one hundred and sixty thousand dollars
of blueberries and kiwis those like I don't even now,
that's ice blueberries. The blueberries you carry those the wrong way.
They're all burn They're all like.
Speaker 6 (29:44):
Eight dollars four blueberries right now, right, we were still
six blueberries for one hundred and sixty thousand dollars. So
lock them up at the store like razors.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
They go back in a week like they're not even
and you can't freeze them. You freeze them now you're
talking about okay, it can only make smoothies with them,
Like what are you doing with this stuff?
Speaker 3 (30:03):
Yeah? I am fascinated by this true.
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Is the market for black market food that big.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
We gotta find out. That's why I put out there
can a I help with this. Let's take a quick
break when Paul we know when we come back. PAULA
Monica comes back with us right after this.
Speaker 5 (30:23):
Text does six one seven three six two one eight
five with your comments and questions about today's show.
Speaker 1 (30:29):
This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network, Ladies and gentlemen
the weekend.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
As promised, We're now joined by Paul Monica from Barons
and uh we're talking a little bit about Hasbro today. Paul,
how you doing good?
Speaker 4 (30:55):
Thanks? How you guys doing.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
We're doing well. How's Hasbro doing?
Speaker 8 (31:00):
Yeah, Hasbro is doing phenomenally well. The stock is at
a multi year high. They reported earnings earlier this week,
and there are a lot of things going well for
the company. You've got strong growth from their Wizards of
the Coast and digital gaming businesses. So that's things like
(31:23):
the Magic the Gathering trading cards, Dungeons and Dragons, which
is still going strong. Maybe it's getting a stranger things resurgence.
And then also you know digital games like Monopoly Go
and that is helping Hasbro report very strong results at
a time where its top rival Mattel is struggling. That
(31:46):
stock plunged after it also reported earnings because you know,
they're you know, getting hit by just weaker demand for
their toys, things like Barbie and hot Wheels. And they
also have more overseas production exposure I think than Hasbro,
so tariffs are a bigger concern than they are for Hasbro,
which also doesn't get as much of a tariff hit
(32:08):
on some of the digital side of their businesses.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
So Hasbro for the last decade or so, up until
the last year, was basically just chopping around and not
really going anywhere. Is there something fundamentally different that's changing
the long term outlook for the business or are we
just kind of on the upswing of one of those
positive chops and there's another shoe waiting to fall, waitting
to drop on the other side of it.
Speaker 8 (32:32):
Yeah, that's a good question, man. I think you have
a new Ish CEO. You know, he's been there a
couple of years now, Chris Cox. He has made a lot.
Speaker 4 (32:42):
Of changes at the company for the better.
Speaker 8 (32:44):
But also keep in mind that you're right, Hasbro and Mattel,
they're both in businesses that are somewhat fickle and also
hit driven and fad and trend driven, and right now
has b has the momentum that maybe Mattel had a
couple of years ago when the Barbie movie was such
(33:04):
a phenomenon that helped Mattel. Now you look at Hasbro,
They've got that longstanding Disney relationship, which could give them
a big boost this year.
Speaker 4 (33:17):
You've got Toy Story.
Speaker 8 (33:18):
Five coming out, You've got the Mandalorian.
Speaker 4 (33:21):
And Grogu movie.
Speaker 8 (33:23):
That's a lot of Baby Yoda toys. There are two
Marvel movies with another Spider Man and an Avengers movie
coming out. And then Hasbro's doing more deals on the
licensing side as well.
Speaker 4 (33:33):
They've got toys tied.
Speaker 8 (33:35):
To the Voltron movie from Amazon's MGM Unit, so that'll
stream on prime video later this year. So again, you're
all right that, you know, you have to be somewhat
lucky in some respects because you're riding hot trends that
are a little bit out of your control. But Hasbro
(33:56):
has those solid relationships right now, and that's giving them
a boost.
Speaker 2 (34:01):
When we look at the last couple of weeks, uh,
you know, basically anywhere in the market, the chatter has
been about how can AI potentially replace her up end
this business, And it seems that when we talk about
some of the digital stuff that has Bro's building, the
mode that they're trying to build is people will still
want to play these familiar digital games instead of new
(34:22):
ones that could be easily built. Is that a fair
statement looking at them?
Speaker 3 (34:27):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (34:27):
I think it is.
Speaker 8 (34:28):
I mean you've got some legacy brands with Dungeons and
Dragons and Magical Gathering, a little bit of a newer
one of course, you know the Monopoly board game that
has the digital aspect as well. They're probably less susceptible
to AI offending their business.
Speaker 4 (34:47):
You know.
Speaker 8 (34:48):
AI is obviously, you know, going to be very disruptive
for a lot of services companies. But you know, there
has been this trend this week, companies like McDonald's and
young Brands our new all time highs.
Speaker 4 (35:01):
Thanks to solid results.
Speaker 8 (35:02):
AI is great, but if you want a big Mac
or you know, pizza from Pizza Hut, you know, CHATCHBT
and Claude really can't help you there. So I think
that you know, investing in the real, the physical and
the tangible, that's going to be a trend that will
continue in that.
Speaker 4 (35:19):
Obviously good news for Hasbro.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
Fantastic. Paul, appreciate you joining us. Hope you have a
great weekend and we will catch up with you soon.
Speaker 4 (35:27):
Thanks a lot. I have a go on, guys.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
It's Paul Monica from Baron's talking about Hasbro. Mike, I
want to talk about the S and P five hundred briefly.
If you'll indulge me, let's do it. The S and
P five hundred right now is at sixty eight sixty seven.
It was also at sixty eight sixty seven on October
twenty seventh, which means we're now closing in on four
(35:52):
months with the stock market basically not going anywhere, and
it's really is insurn but not having gone anywhere. So
the remarkable thing is that under the surface there is
as much churn as we have ever seen in markets,
and yet they're somehow holding up because normally, with this
level of movement, you've got indices off like anywhere from
(36:16):
like ten to twenty five percent, and it's not happening here.
And it's basically because no one wants to outright sell
stocks in the aggregate right now. It's kind of well,
my software stuff is getting blown up, so I'm gonna
move to consumer staples, and then that gets blown up,
so I'm gonna move to financial Like everyone's just kind
of moving around. But at some point this market is
(36:39):
like things are getting pretty stressed under the surface, and
it's a fairly dangerous market right now, just because the
mechanics are just a mess under the hood.
Speaker 3 (36:50):
Yeah, everybody's been talking about that great rotation, and we
are seeing some rotation in twenty twenty six thus far.
But can it continue to support the over for all
price level is pretty important.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
It's basically the only question that matters right now, just
because again, what's happening under the surface is so intense
in terms of like names moving you know, seven to
ten percent a day, but somehow not affecting the broader market.
It's not something that we normally see in this fashion.
(37:27):
But hey, we'll see how long. If it can hold
together long enough in order to you know, kind of
let some of the bigger players get back on track,
then you know, that's that's kind of your exit path.
Speaker 1 (37:38):
I think let's.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
Take a quick break for the entire weekend. Hope you
all have a great presence day weekend, and we will
see you back here next week.
The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
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your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
(00:20):
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(00:42):
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(01:06):
and Mike Armstrong.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Mike, you ever watch TV?
Speaker 3 (01:12):
I have bip.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
You ever sit down on the couch.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
And watch TV?
Speaker 4 (01:18):
No?
Speaker 2 (01:18):
You ever sit down the couch?
Speaker 4 (01:19):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (01:20):
Yeah, yeah, both.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Okay. You're sitting on the couch and you're like, let
me pull up this app and see if I can
watch this, okay, and you're kind of like, Eh, there's
nothing really interesting there. I'm not really that's not really
hitting it. Let me open up a different app and
you go to a different streaming app and you're flipping
through and you're like, no, I've seen that four times. No,
(01:41):
that doesn't look good. And you're flipping through and next
thing you know, you spent half an hour. You haven't
watched anything, but you've just kind of been going back
and forth. They're like, eh, maybe this maybe that, No,
I don't think. So that's today's market. We have crossed
from positive to negative territory five separate times already today
(02:02):
just up down, up, down, up, just back and forth.
Like this market it wants to do something. It just
doesn't know what it wants to do today, which I
guess is better than yesterday when it knew what it
wanted to do, and that was sell off pretty hard.
Speaker 4 (02:15):
Right.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
So today, as we sit here at this very moment,
and again we're we're minute to minute right now with
how this puppy's moving. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up,
in fact, it's up one hundred and thirty nine points.
The standard in pores five hundred is up twenty five points,
the Nasdaq Composite is up forty four points. So you
(02:36):
got about a quarter to a third percent rally happening
in stocks. Not enough to make it yesterday's losses, but
we'll take gains over losses any day of the week,
unless you're a short seller, and then you're like, no,
I wanted to go down. But those are like the
people that show up to the casino and play on
the don't pass line on the UH, on the uh,
I'm totally blanking on the name right now. If you're
(02:57):
talking about spoils craps table, then no crapstaate, you're basically
betting the house there you go, snake eyes, No, well yes, yes,
so in any case, uh, this is what we have
going on in equity markets. The ten year Treasury continuates
migration down down four point two basis points to four
point h six two percent.
Speaker 5 (03:17):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
This has brought mortgage rates in a little bit further
this year this week so far, thirty year fixed rate
according to Mortgage News Daily, now down to six point
one percent for the national average, so getting within sniffing
distance of six percent there. We've got other markets on
the move as well. Today, Dollar indexes up point one
four percent to ninety six ninety seven, gold is up
(03:39):
fifty five dollars nouns back above five thousand, five thousand
and three. On the nose, we've got crude oil down
thirteen cents a barrel to sixty two to seventy one,
triple a national average. For gas prices also coming in
four tens of percent to two ninety four. We've rallied
from about two eighty up to two ninety four. So
gas price is up about fourteen fifteen cents in the
(04:01):
last month, mostly on Middle East in Iran fears at
this point. And so that is what is moving markets today.
Let me tell you what's moving just about every person
online who is involved in business in any way, whether
you're an employer or an employer, whether you're you know,
(04:23):
a sole practitioner or not. Matt Schumer, who quite Honestly,
I don't know who Matt Schumer is. He's a dude.
Speaker 3 (04:30):
CEO of some company that never has heard of. It's
fine of doesn't have a Wikipedia page. That's kind of
my benchmark, right, Matt Schumer is have a Wikipedia page.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
He's a dude, and he works in the AI space,
and he on February ninth, about four days ago, wrote
a a post on x titled something Big is Happening.
Speaker 6 (04:49):
Eighty million views.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
It's got eighty million views, which is why I say,
like anyone involved in jobs is paying attention to this,
and the whole premise of something big is happening, it's
actually like when you print it out, it's like seven
or eight pages. It's long. It may have been like
partially or entirely written by AI, but I don't think
that matters. But basically what he says is, look, I've
(05:11):
noticed a change in what is going on in AI
right now and it's going to impact just about everyone, which,
by the way, feels like Matt might be listening to
our show because this is what we started saying last week.
So if he's a Financial Exchange listener, love your work, Matt,
and thanks for you know.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
Do we want to read the piece about coding that
I found to be fascinating and just really compelling it
and really driving the last couple of years.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Here it is. I'll quote here, and hopefully this is
the same part that you picked out. Quote. I am
no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job.
I describe what I want built in plain English, and
it just appears not a rough draft. I need to
fix the finished thing. I tell the AI what I want.
I walk away from my computer for four hours and
come back to find the work done, done well, then
better done, better than I would have done it myself,
(05:59):
with no corrections need. A couple months ago, I was
going back and forth with the AI, guiding it and
making edits. Now I just described the outcome and leave.
So he's talking about, you know, coding to build apps
and programs and different things, and it goes He.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Then goes on, I think there's another part that's worth
talking about here, because I don't know how to design software,
no no idea. It goes further than that too. It
figures out the user flow, the design, all of it.
It does it. It writes tens of thousands of lines
of code then and This is the part that would
(06:34):
have been unthinkable a year ago. It opens the app itself,
It clicks through the buttons, It tests the features. It
uses the app the way a person would. If it
doesn't like how something looks or feels, it goes back
and changes it on its own. It iterates like a
developer would, fixing and refining until it's satisfied. Only once
it has decided the app meets its own standards, does
(06:56):
it come back to me and says it's ready for
you to test. And I test it. It's usually perfect.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
The other piece that I'll read here and then we
can actually discuss more. But I tried AI and it
wasn't that good. People will say I hear this constantly,
and I understand it because it used to be true.
If you tried chat GPT in twenty twenty three or
early twenty four and thought this makes stuff up or
this isn't that impressive, you were right. The early versions
were genuinely limited. They hallucinated, They confidently said things that
(07:21):
were nonsense. That was two years ago in AI time.
That is ancient history. And one other addendum that I'll
point out. If you are using the free version of
AI you're not getting what this guy is is usually
either the paid versions are more advanced and further along.
So on this last one, which I think is the
most important one, the pace at which this is iterating
(07:42):
and changing is is so rapid. And the comparison that
I like to make here is if you decided that
you didn't want to fly on an airplane because you
saw like what the Wright brothers did. That's kind of
like saying, well, AI was bad two years ago, and
so I'm not gonna, you know, use it furthermore. And
this I think is made by this piece as well.
(08:04):
I've read so many of these in the last few
weeks that I don't know what's what. But when we
talk about using AI, we're not talking about like using
it like a search engine. Think about using it in
terms of can I build something to replace a part
of my job or life that I genuinely dislike. So
(08:25):
not hey, show me Chinese restaurants within two miles of
my house. You can use Google for that and it
might be better. Like that's not what we're talking about here,
Like you don't need AI to find Chinese restaurants. What
you could ask AI to do is build me instead
of doing this manually. Because you could do this manually.
(08:46):
You could say, locate all the Chinese restaurants within ten
miles of my house and then build me the route
map that is most efficient for getting to all of them,
so that I can try the fried rice at each
one and figure out which is better. And it will
go and be like, Okay, I need to access like
Google Maps API and do that, and here's the traffic
(09:08):
patterns at these times of day, and then it will
try a whole bunch of different things. Or you could say, hey,
I'm trying to figure out I just like got all
this smart home stuff installed. Build me automations that do X,
Y and z for this automation app that I use,
and it will go and do that for you. Or
if you're working, let's say that you are a lawyer, Hey,
(09:34):
here is the legal brief from the opposition. Figure out
how to poke holes in this for me. Have it
do that stuff for you instead of what's six times six?
Or make me a picture of a monkey and a
bob sled Like This is what I think people are
missing on AI is It's at the point now where
(09:55):
if you ask it to do complex things again, you.
You have to do a lot of legwork to get
it to work the way that you want. What I
mean by that is there's a whole series of different
prompts in different context that you have to give it
as background. But once you learn how to do that,
I'm telling you it's and I have done a one
(10:17):
to eighty in the last month because of what I've seen,
It's coming for us sooner than people thought.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
Another question about his experience Matt's experience specifically, is his
success with teaching it, is his success with having it
code things for him dependent on his pre existing expertise.
Since he already taught it how to do all these things,
he already prompted it probably three hundred times that know,
this button doesn't work the way I want it to,
this is the style I want, This is how I
(10:45):
want it done. I wonder how many hours have gone
into him training his AI system the way that he
specifically needs it to work.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
It is to a certain extent, but remember there are
thousands of other people with those skills that are doing
the same thing. Yeah, and they're going to be enough
where like you want to talk about potential roles that
might exist over the next couple of years, like an
AI trainer or builder for a company who's a consultant
who comes in and does this stuff for a company
(11:13):
for like six months. Yeah, I can absolutely see that
being a highly paid, transformative position for a period of time.
Wild stuff that we're getting to, and I can't do
it all myself, but I see what people are doing now,
and I see how they're doing it, and my biggest
thing is like, gee, I wish I had all of
(11:34):
these hours in the day to play around with it
myself in this fashion because I don't. But I see
what's being done and I'm like, oh, there's something there.
And I'm not just talking about how people write about it,
like you watch the actual videos that are being put
out of someone being like, hey do this AI, and
then you know, time lapses and shows you what it does,
(11:54):
and it's like, here's what it built.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
Oh okay, I stay impressive.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
See it now, quick break here, when we come back,
let's do trivia and then we're talking social security right
after this.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
The Financial Exchange streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our
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all morning. Long Face is the Financial Exchange radio.
Speaker 6 (12:17):
Network This segment of the Financial Exchange is brought to
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time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange. In Sunday
(13:00):
marks the sixty eighth annual Daytona five one hundred from
the Daytona International Speedway. William Byron won the big race
last year, as you all out there no and Joey
Logano is the favorite to win this year. So our
trivia question today which driver has won the most Daytona
five hundreds? Once again, which driver has won the most
(13:23):
Daytona five hundreds? Be the fourth person today to text
us at six one seven three six two thirteen eighty
five with correct answer along with keyword trivia, and you
win a Financial Exchange Show T shirt.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Once again.
Speaker 6 (13:37):
The fourth correct response to text us to the number
six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five with
correct answer along with the keyword trivia will win that
T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show
dot com.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Social Security could run out of money in just six years,
even sooner than originally feared. So we're talking twenty thirty
two now, Yeah, and Mike, when we're talking about midterm elections,
do you ever hear social Security mentioned?
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Not yet?
Speaker 2 (14:08):
No. But here's the thing. The senators that are up
for election this fall, they're gonna have to deal with this.
So someone should be asking them about.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
It, I would think, so I'll ask them about it.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
According to new projections from the CBO, the Old Agent
Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is now projected to run out
of money in twenty thirty two. That's a year earlier
than the estimate from last year. And actually it is
on part though with the forecast that Social Security Chief
Actuary Karen Glenn made in August.
Speaker 3 (14:38):
Is this in part due to the tax cuts most
the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Glenn Head quote here. Glenn had said the provisions in
last year's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included a
temporary enhanced tax deduction for seniors, would have a material
impact on the trust fund's finance.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
So if you're not remember how it was announced that
there'd be no tax on Social Security. Didn't really get there.
What we got instead was an additional deduction for those
over the age of sixty five. But that does reduce
overall taxation, especially on a lot of people social Security benefits,
and so the benefits are less taxable, but the money
will run out sooner.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
We're basically somewhere between six and seven years from this happening. Yep,
do it. If you're sitting in your car, don't do it.
But otherwise you can. You know, it's guys, it's coming,
and no one wants to deal with it. And by
the way, remember this is if everything goes well. Yeah,
if you hit a recession, that it's a lot faster.
(15:35):
If you hit a recession, it's faster because you have
less payroll tax being collected. Yeah, and so like this
is coming and no one is talking about it.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
And to be really clear, there is no path to
this being resolved without changes to the program. Like if
you're wondering, well, what if the economy gets really good, No,
there's no means by which the economy can get so good.
Or the only one that I could think of it,
which it was too late to deal with, would be
way more people that are like eighteen years old entering
(16:08):
the country and getting jobs.
Speaker 2 (16:09):
Right, if you increase immigration by like six million eighteen
year olds a year for the next five or six years,
maybe it does something. I'm still not saying it thirty six,
you know, like I don't even know if that does
anything like meaningful. Still, just it's we're too late in
the game. It's either gonna be we're just gonna change
the rules and the trust fund doesn't have to be,
(16:31):
you know, fully funded, we're just gonna pay it out
of whatever, or it's going to be some combination of
benefit cuts, tax hikes, and increase the age of the polease.
Speaker 3 (16:42):
Don't let your lotmakers get away with this. No one cares,
no one, Like, no one talks about this. Yeah, nobody
gives a darn it gives a hoot.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Yeah, there's there's no hooton. There's no hooton. Let's see
peace from barons. With stocks still riding high, now is
the time to rebalance. Maybe maybe not okay, Like again,
one size fits all financial advice is generally not great.
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Well, also because I love that we have an accompanying
piece that is all about how having thirty three percent
of your portfolio in seven companies is less risky than
it sounds. So one of you, one of them is
telling you sell everything, diversify more. The other one's telling
you definitely don't diversify more.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Here's the idea diversification. The whole premise of it is
that not everything moves at the same rate, and so
if you're well diversified, you won't do the worst out
of any asset class, and you won't do the best diversification.
I think a lot of people misunderstand. They're like, oh,
if I diversify, like that's the best way to generate returns. No,
diversification is the best way to reduce the spread in
(17:51):
the variation of returns from year to year. But remember
when there is a market crash, correlations increase, typically between
US and international equities, US and commodities, real estate, like
these correlations increase, you know, like it's it's just something
that happens. So even during you know, very sharp downturns
(18:13):
in markets, diversification doesn't necessarily save you. Then change movie.
You know, having diversification between different asset classes can help sometimes.
But the whole premise of diversification is if some of
my stuff goes up, other stuff is going down, and
if some goes down, some is going up, and so
that should balance out and make it a less volatile
(18:34):
ride over time, which can make it more tolerable to
go through. But it doesn't inherently produce better returns.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
Yeah, not necessarily.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
And I don't know that there's ever a right or
wrong time to diversify, Like just because stocks are up,
it's not like do it now, Like I don't know,
they could keep going up. Maybe now's not the right time.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
It's your February reminder that if one article that you
read in any while your journal, Barons or otherwise place
causes you to completely rethink your portfolio and you probably
had the wrong portfolio begin with, take a walk and
see if you still want to do it.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Good idea quick break when we return We've got the
trivia answer in Wall Street.
Speaker 7 (19:13):
Watch, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
Every day.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
Speaker 5 (19:29):
Time now for Wall Street Watch a complete look at
what's moving markets so far today Right here on the
Financial Exchange Radio.
Speaker 6 (19:37):
Network, markets are trading modestly. Hires. Wall Street reacts to
the consumer Price Index for the month of January, where
consumer prices climbed zero point two percent software than forecasts
of zero point three percent. Traders are also continuing to
weigh concerns around AI disruption, impacting various sectors, including real estate, trucking,
in software. Right now, the Dow is of three to
(19:59):
ten seven percent to one hundred and forty nine points,
SMP five hundred, up about four tenths of a percent,
Nasdaq is up only twenty eight points, about a tenth
of a percent. Russell two thousand rallying one point seven percent.
Ten year Treasure reeled down four basis points at four
point zero five six percent, and crude oil down about
a quarter percent, training its sixty two dollars and sixty
(20:22):
seven cents a barrel. Applied Materials rallying nine percent after
the maker of Semiconductor Equipment posted stronger than expected quarterly results,
lifted by soaring demand for AI computing. Meanwhile, Instacart stock
is soaring eight percent after the company's impressive quarterly results
ease concerns over increasing competition and the grocery delivery market
(20:43):
from the likes of Uber Eats, Amazon and door Dash.
Elsewhere shares a roku or up about five percent after
the video streaming company posted fourth quarter results that beat
expectations and offered strong guidance. The company also said it
expects to roll out premium subscription bundles the year yay
More bundles and online travel agency Expedia posted solid quarterly results. However,
(21:06):
the company identified emerging AI powered platforms as a potential risk.
Expedia stock is now down over six percent. I'm Tucker
Silva and that is Wall Street Watch. In the previous segment,
we asked you the trivia question, which driver is one
of the most Daytona five hundreds. Well that would be
Richard Petty. He healds the record with seven Daytona five
(21:27):
hundred victories. George from Wall Fame, Mass is our winner
today taking on my Financial Exchange show T shirt. Congrats
to George and we play trivia every day here on
the Financial Exshane. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange
Show dot com.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
Either of you big Richard Petty fans?
Speaker 6 (21:44):
No, now, it was before my time.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
You guys know what his nickname is, the King Thuck King.
Speaker 6 (21:49):
You know what they've referred with the references in cars?
Speaker 2 (21:54):
Oh, yes, it's hang on the isn't just the King? Yes?
But he because he plays one of the cars in
Cars to I think it is or is it the
car one?
Speaker 5 (22:06):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (22:06):
Yeah, the og it's in the original. Yeah. Uh. Anyways,
it's enough enough. H Richard Petty took King the King
Weathers Strip Weathers. There you go.
Speaker 3 (22:18):
There you have it.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
Mike, you haven't said anything. I get the sentence. Apparently
he's not a cars fan.
Speaker 6 (22:23):
You know nothing about cars nor a Nascar You don't
what you've never seen the Pixar movie Cars.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
I have seen it once.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Wow. You have three kids too?
Speaker 3 (22:31):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Interesting, it's kind of shocking.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
Bunch of girls not that into cars.
Speaker 2 (22:35):
Yah, it's good. Everyone likes cars here. You what has
surprised us most about retirement? That's the title of a
piece today from the Wall Street Journal. And what has
surprised people the most about retirement.
Speaker 3 (22:49):
I like this piece because it describes a phenomenon that
we see all the time, which is oftentimes with a
married couple that retire, one of them has a pretty
experience than the other does not. And to me, what
the lesson is from this, So it was a couple
Steve and Karen. Karen seemed very fulfilled. Steve felt like
(23:11):
there was just this well he talks about it a
vacuum in what his work life previously took up. And here,
I think is the best solution that you can come
up with, which is talk about retirement with your family
before well before you get there, and figure out your plan,
because have things that you want to do, not like
(23:32):
just you know, travel, like have things that you want
to do every day, because otherwise Steve's experience here even
he'd had plenty of things that he wanted to do
and got fulfillment out of. But it seems to me
that his experience, that vacuum that left avoid led to
him experiencing this quote. Nothing prepared me for the gnawing
(23:54):
unease of pivoting from saving to spending.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
And this I think is the biggest thing that I
tend to hear, which is, for forty years going into retirement,
it's max out your four oh one k, you know,
save as much as you can. And then suddenly you
turn sixty five or sixty seven or whatever age you
turn when you retire, and some little young nerd like
me walks in the room and is like, hey, it's
(24:18):
time for you to start spending that money. And you're like, Chuck,
are you insane? This is my retirement savings. And it's like, no,
that's right, you're you're at Your retirement goes.
Speaker 3 (24:29):
Against every you know, yankee cheap, you know, saverer mentality
that you have built up in your life, and it
becomes a real problem for people, even in cases where
they are fully financially prepared for retirement, that gnawing unease
eats away at them at times. If first of all,
(24:49):
if you're preparing for retirement, do what I said, talk
about it. Figure out what your priorities are. Talk to
your talk to your loved ones, talk to your spouse
if you have one, and figure out what it's actually
going to mean to you. If you who could use
some help on the financial side of it, then that's
where Armstrong can come in is talking through what those
priorities are and then putting a price tag on them
(25:11):
and helping a professional. Having a professional help you guide
through what the savings rate needs to be, how much
you need to get to before you can pull that
type of retirement off. But more often than not, that's
what professional advisors are doing. Is not telling you whether
or not you can retire, but explain to you what
type of retirement you can afford. Number four Armstrong Advisor
Groups eight hundred three nine three for zero zero one.
(25:33):
You can book your free consultation by calling us. You
can go to Armstrong Advisory dot com from more information
and book a time for us to call you back.
But that number again is eight hundred three nine three
for zero zero one.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
advisory services.
Speaker 2 (26:00):
I know we got other stuff to talk about with
you know, rising electricity costs and does anyone want to
buy evs? Anymore. And uh, you know there's not enough
cows in the US. But I got to talk about crabs.
You do it piece in the New York Times crab
Heist puts spotlight on surge of cargo thefts.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Is nowhere.
Speaker 2 (26:19):
You're going there, going to the piece that you put
in the stack? I remember, now, yep, that one I
blocked that What happened?
Speaker 3 (26:28):
So this entire stack have no recollection.
Speaker 2 (26:30):
So here's the thing. Basically, like a bunch of scammers
like hacked into the like email system of a cargo
shipper and found a shipment of three hundred and twenty
five dollars three hundred twenty five thousand dollars of frozen
snow crab that was leaving a warehouse on July fifteenth
in Worcestern, Massachusetts.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
How do you think you've got the network to unload
three hundred and twenty five thousand dollars worth of snow crew?
Speaker 2 (26:53):
This is my question. Like if you go out and
you steal TVs, it's like okay, like they don't go
you can figure out a way to like unload them.
I'm sure over a fixed period of time. If you've
got a bunch of frozen snow crab. You have to
do one of two things. You've got to get a
giant freezer to put it in, which someone's gonna be like, hey,
(27:13):
where'd all the snow crab come from? Dude or b
You've got to sell it quickly. You can't just sit
on You can't just be like you know all you
know breaking bad where they get the storage unit, you're
just sitting on the money like ooh, this is nice.
You've got to figure out how to unload that. And
I don't know anyone who's just like lurking around being
(27:35):
like yeah, you know what I'd really like like I'd
like like sixteen tons of stolen snow crab? Like what
do you do with it?
Speaker 3 (27:44):
Lord of War with Nicholas Cage, Yes, remember the scene
where he crashes the plane and he needs to get
rid of all the weapons so he can't be proven guilty. Yeah,
I'm just envisioning that, but with snow crab and it
doesn't work, Like what what.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
Do you do with this? Go around to every buffet
in the re just being like, hey, we can give
you a half priced crab, Like no, they're can be
like I've never met you You're not a normal distributor.
Why would I buy from you.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
Yeah, either there's a bunch of rotten snow crab sitting
around somewhere, or this heist was performed by, you know,
the one percent of Americans who know how to deal
with snow crab or frozen seafood generally.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Again, because this is not an isolated thing. One of
the biggest recent haulls was a truckload of processed lobster
meet valued at four hundred thousand dollars. It disappeared in
December after being picked up from a warehouse in Taunt, Massachusetts,
never reaching the Costco wholesale locations in Illinois and Minnesota.
There was another one where the lobster.
Speaker 6 (28:41):
Goes in this backyard. I mean it's been freaking freezing
this whole time, just thrown on the snow.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
There you go. Remember the egg you know, call them
snow crabs for no reason.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
There's the Pennsylvania egg heist too, Remember that one thereat
thousand Hey oh no, sorry, yeah, one hundred thousand eggs
in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
I mean that's even worse because like you break though
and they're gone. Yeah, I just you can't put Humpty
dumpty back together again.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
It's pretty fascinating that this stuff is happening.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
Backyards, just covered in lobster and crabs.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
This stuff has to the dog gonna go. It has
to get shipped over seas, right, it's got to just
a cargo boat like it.
Speaker 1 (29:17):
Yeah, it's gone.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
It has to get shipped over seas.
Speaker 3 (29:20):
If you are a a heist expert on frozen seafood,
text the show at six one, seven, three, six, two
thirteen eighty five. We want to know how you did it?
Speaker 2 (29:31):
Yes, in your location, one hundred and sixty thousand dollars
of blueberries and kiwis those like I don't even now,
that's ice blueberries. The blueberries you carry those the wrong way.
They're all burn They're all like.
Speaker 6 (29:44):
Eight dollars four blueberries right now, right, we were still
six blueberries for one hundred and sixty thousand dollars. So
lock them up at the store like razors.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
They go back in a week like they're not even
and you can't freeze them. You freeze them now you're
talking about okay, it can only make smoothies with them,
Like what are you doing with this stuff?
Speaker 3 (30:03):
Yeah? I am fascinated by this true.
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Is the market for black market food that big.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
We gotta find out. That's why I put out there
can a I help with this. Let's take a quick
break when Paul we know when we come back. PAULA
Monica comes back with us right after this.
Speaker 5 (30:23):
Text does six one seven three six two one eight
five with your comments and questions about today's show.
Speaker 1 (30:29):
This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network, Ladies and gentlemen
the weekend.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
As promised, We're now joined by Paul Monica from Barons
and uh we're talking a little bit about Hasbro today. Paul,
how you doing good?
Speaker 4 (30:55):
Thanks? How you guys doing.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
We're doing well. How's Hasbro doing?
Speaker 8 (31:00):
Yeah, Hasbro is doing phenomenally well. The stock is at
a multi year high. They reported earnings earlier this week,
and there are a lot of things going well for
the company. You've got strong growth from their Wizards of
the Coast and digital gaming businesses. So that's things like
(31:23):
the Magic the Gathering trading cards, Dungeons and Dragons, which
is still going strong. Maybe it's getting a stranger things resurgence.
And then also you know digital games like Monopoly Go
and that is helping Hasbro report very strong results at
a time where its top rival Mattel is struggling. That
(31:46):
stock plunged after it also reported earnings because you know,
they're you know, getting hit by just weaker demand for
their toys, things like Barbie and hot Wheels. And they
also have more overseas production exposure I think than Hasbro,
so tariffs are a bigger concern than they are for Hasbro,
which also doesn't get as much of a tariff hit
(32:08):
on some of the digital side of their businesses.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
So Hasbro for the last decade or so, up until
the last year, was basically just chopping around and not
really going anywhere. Is there something fundamentally different that's changing
the long term outlook for the business or are we
just kind of on the upswing of one of those
positive chops and there's another shoe waiting to fall, waitting
to drop on the other side of it.
Speaker 8 (32:32):
Yeah, that's a good question, man. I think you have
a new Ish CEO. You know, he's been there a
couple of years now, Chris Cox. He has made a lot.
Speaker 4 (32:42):
Of changes at the company for the better.
Speaker 8 (32:44):
But also keep in mind that you're right, Hasbro and Mattel,
they're both in businesses that are somewhat fickle and also
hit driven and fad and trend driven, and right now
has b has the momentum that maybe Mattel had a
couple of years ago when the Barbie movie was such
(33:04):
a phenomenon that helped Mattel. Now you look at Hasbro,
They've got that longstanding Disney relationship, which could give them
a big boost this year.
Speaker 4 (33:17):
You've got Toy Story.
Speaker 8 (33:18):
Five coming out, You've got the Mandalorian.
Speaker 4 (33:21):
And Grogu movie.
Speaker 8 (33:23):
That's a lot of Baby Yoda toys. There are two
Marvel movies with another Spider Man and an Avengers movie
coming out. And then Hasbro's doing more deals on the
licensing side as well.
Speaker 4 (33:33):
They've got toys tied.
Speaker 8 (33:35):
To the Voltron movie from Amazon's MGM Unit, so that'll
stream on prime video later this year. So again, you're
all right that, you know, you have to be somewhat
lucky in some respects because you're riding hot trends that
are a little bit out of your control. But Hasbro
(33:56):
has those solid relationships right now, and that's giving them
a boost.
Speaker 2 (34:01):
When we look at the last couple of weeks, uh,
you know, basically anywhere in the market, the chatter has
been about how can AI potentially replace her up end
this business, And it seems that when we talk about
some of the digital stuff that has Bro's building, the
mode that they're trying to build is people will still
want to play these familiar digital games instead of new
(34:22):
ones that could be easily built. Is that a fair
statement looking at them?
Speaker 3 (34:27):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (34:27):
I think it is.
Speaker 8 (34:28):
I mean you've got some legacy brands with Dungeons and
Dragons and Magical Gathering, a little bit of a newer
one of course, you know the Monopoly board game that
has the digital aspect as well. They're probably less susceptible
to AI offending their business.
Speaker 4 (34:47):
You know.
Speaker 8 (34:48):
AI is obviously, you know, going to be very disruptive
for a lot of services companies. But you know, there
has been this trend this week, companies like McDonald's and
young Brands our new all time highs.
Speaker 4 (35:01):
Thanks to solid results.
Speaker 8 (35:02):
AI is great, but if you want a big Mac
or you know, pizza from Pizza Hut, you know, CHATCHBT
and Claude really can't help you there. So I think
that you know, investing in the real, the physical and
the tangible, that's going to be a trend that will
continue in that.
Speaker 4 (35:19):
Obviously good news for Hasbro.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
Fantastic. Paul, appreciate you joining us. Hope you have a
great weekend and we will catch up with you soon.
Speaker 4 (35:27):
Thanks a lot. I have a go on, guys.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
It's Paul Monica from Baron's talking about Hasbro. Mike, I
want to talk about the S and P five hundred briefly.
If you'll indulge me, let's do it. The S and
P five hundred right now is at sixty eight sixty seven.
It was also at sixty eight sixty seven on October
twenty seventh, which means we're now closing in on four
(35:52):
months with the stock market basically not going anywhere, and
it's really is insurn but not having gone anywhere. So
the remarkable thing is that under the surface there is
as much churn as we have ever seen in markets,
and yet they're somehow holding up because normally, with this
level of movement, you've got indices off like anywhere from
(36:16):
like ten to twenty five percent, and it's not happening here.
And it's basically because no one wants to outright sell
stocks in the aggregate right now. It's kind of well,
my software stuff is getting blown up, so I'm gonna
move to consumer staples, and then that gets blown up,
so I'm gonna move to financial Like everyone's just kind
of moving around. But at some point this market is
(36:39):
like things are getting pretty stressed under the surface, and
it's a fairly dangerous market right now, just because the
mechanics are just a mess under the hood.
Speaker 3 (36:50):
Yeah, everybody's been talking about that great rotation, and we
are seeing some rotation in twenty twenty six thus far.
But can it continue to support the over for all
price level is pretty important.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
It's basically the only question that matters right now, just
because again, what's happening under the surface is so intense
in terms of like names moving you know, seven to
ten percent a day, but somehow not affecting the broader market.
It's not something that we normally see in this fashion.
(37:27):
But hey, we'll see how long. If it can hold
together long enough in order to you know, kind of
let some of the bigger players get back on track,
then you know, that's that's kind of your exit path.
Speaker 1 (37:38):
I think let's.
Speaker 2 (37:39):
Take a quick break for the entire weekend. Hope you
all have a great presence day weekend, and we will
see you back here next week.
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