November 10, 2025 • 50 mins
Tonight on The Brian Crombie Hour, join Brian for a compelling conversation with Jeff Rubin, renowned economist, former CIBC Chief Economist, and author of A Map of the New Normal.
Jeff argues that Canada’s economy is standing at a crossroads. As the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement comes up for renewal, protectionism south of the border is reshaping our trade reality. Rubin warns that Canada can no longer rely on the U.S. market, predicting rising mortgage rates and growing vulnerability in a potential trade war.
Together they discuss whether Prime Minister Mark Carney’s plan to double non-U.S. exports is realistic — or merely political theatre. Rubin says Europe offers little growth and limited market access, while the real opportunities lie with BRICS countries like China and India, despite strained diplomatic ties. Jeff also challenges Canada’s current tariff strategy, asking: Why are we matching U.S. tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles when our own EV production is stalled?
It’s a thought-provoking look at how Canada must adapt — balancing values, politics, and economic survival in an increasingly divided global economy.
Jeff argues that Canada’s economy is standing at a crossroads. As the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement comes up for renewal, protectionism south of the border is reshaping our trade reality. Rubin warns that Canada can no longer rely on the U.S. market, predicting rising mortgage rates and growing vulnerability in a potential trade war.
Together they discuss whether Prime Minister Mark Carney’s plan to double non-U.S. exports is realistic — or merely political theatre. Rubin says Europe offers little growth and limited market access, while the real opportunities lie with BRICS countries like China and India, despite strained diplomatic ties. Jeff also challenges Canada’s current tariff strategy, asking: Why are we matching U.S. tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles when our own EV production is stalled?
It’s a thought-provoking look at how Canada must adapt — balancing values, politics, and economic survival in an increasingly divided global economy.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The views expressed in the following program are those of
the participants and do not necessarily reflect the views of
SAGA nine sixty am or its management.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Good evening, everyone, Welcome to the Brian crimew Radio Hour.
I have been following a gentleman by the name of
Jeff Rubin for I think three decades now as one
of the top thinkers from an economy economic standpoint in
the Canadian economy. He wrote a really interesting op ed
recently in the Goldmail that we're going to talk about.
He's got some strong opinions on the Canadian economy, the budget, etc.
(00:39):
We're going to talk about that. He's in recent author
and Jeff tell us the book that you've recently published.
It's a Map for the New Normal or something, a
map of the.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
New Normal, and it was just recently a finalist for
the National Business Book.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Award, and it was a really interesting book talking about
how geopolitics has changed, how the economy has changed, and
how we've got to really address so these changes. And
I think your op ed argued that we're effectively not
doing any of the above. So what'd you think of
the budget, sir?
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Well, this is how I responded to the budget. Like
many Canadians, I have a mortgage. I had what was
called a three year variable flex mortgage, which allowed me
to lock into a fixed rate three to five year mortgage.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
At any time I want it.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
When I saw the deficit number, and not just for
the current year, but for the next five years, I
immediately decided to lock in to a five year fixed rate.
It was around three point seven nine something around there.
Speaker 4 (01:53):
And the reason.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
I did that, of course, is because, as you know, Brian,
three five year fixed rate mortgages are priced off the
Government of Canada yield curve, and there is an enormous
amount of issuance that the bond market is going to
(02:16):
have to absorb here unless the Bank of Canada is
going to once again turn on the printing presses like
they did with their quantitative easing program during the pandemic.
But let's assume that they're not. That's a massive amount
of issuance and it's going to push bond yields higher
regardless of whether the Bank of Canada will cut rates again,
(02:38):
and I think with this amount of fiscal stimulus, the
Bank's probably done cutting rates, but you know, in any event,
we're looking at higher bond yields and hence higher mortgage rates.
So from a homeowner's perspective, this was not a good
news budget because of course, not only are they facing
(03:02):
slumping real estate values but probably soon rising mortgage rates. Now,
as for you know, the grand narrative of the budget,
you know, so called generational change, the grand narrative is
that all of this, you know, eighty six billion dollars
(03:23):
or so of new spending is going to trigger an
avalanche of investment as much as one trillion dollars over
the next five years. Well, I'll short that trade, and
let me tell you why, Brian, Because while I don't
deny that, you know, public sector investment can leaver private
(03:48):
sector investment, you know, and joint joint funding efforts. You
got to ask yourself, who would go right now and
invest in a new plant in the Canadian in aluminum
or steel, or auto or softwood lumber industry knowing that
you won't be able to sell anything produced in that
(04:10):
plant to in the American market because of terroriffts. So,
while you know fiscal policy can be a substitute for
monetary policy, fiscal stimulus can be a substitute for monetary stimulus.
It's not a substitute for trade policy, because we've got
(04:32):
to get back to the whole issue of Canada is
one of the most export dependent economies in the world.
Exports almost forty percent of GDP. Three quarters of that
go to a country that's pretty well bent on shutting
US out. We have to find some new trading partners
(04:53):
in a hurry. You know, Mark Carney has recently said
that he wants to double non US exports in the
next ten years. That's great, but I think he's looking
in the wrong places because we're certainly not going to
(05:14):
double them with where he's suggesting the EU. You know,
we've had a free trade agreement with the EU for
the last ten years. Exports of flat lined, and the
reason is because it's it's not really a free trade
agreement because what really protects the EU are non tariff barriers.
(05:34):
I mean, you know, try selling an Ontario made car
in the German car market, or try selling some Quebec
cheese in the French or Italian market, and you'll get
appreciation of.
Speaker 4 (05:46):
What I'm saying.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
You know, if we are going to replace the US,
the countries that can do that, that have the economic
weight to do that are the bricks countries I speak
of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa now recently joined
Saudi Arabia Iran. The two key countries here are India
(06:10):
and China. And if you have any doubt as to
their ability to shelter us from the storm, just look
what they did for Russian energy exports. You may recall
Brian President Biden, when he announced sanctions against Russia for
the invasion of Ukraine, said these were the most crippling
(06:34):
sanctions ever imposed and would bring the Russian economy to
its knees. Well, that all turned out to be nonsense.
I mean, Russia's energy export earnings hit record highs, and
that's because India and China opened their vast energy markets
with welcoming arms to sanctioned Russian fuel.
Speaker 4 (06:55):
If they did that for Russia, could.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
They not also do that for Canada provide a sanctuary
from Trump's tariffs?
Speaker 4 (07:05):
They could.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
But the huge difference is, of course, that Russia's a
geopolitical ally of China and India, and we have absolutely terrible
relations with China and India. So if we're going to
go down that path, we're going to have to recalibrate
our foreign policy. And that's something that I don't think
(07:29):
the majority of Canadians right now feel that comfortable with.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
So what do you think Karnie should have done well?
Speaker 4 (07:37):
I mean, here's the problem.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
I mean, Carnee should have, for example, dropped the one
hundred percent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles because we don't
produce any electric vehicles anymore. With the ingersol plants shut
down in exchange for them dropping the tariffs on canola,
(08:01):
pork and seafood, that would be an initial step, but
we got to do way more than that. I mean,
if China and India are going to play the role
for us that they did for Russia, you know we've
got to basically sign free trade agreements with them. And
you know the challenge is and not just for Carnage,
(08:21):
because to be fair here, for for any Canadian prime
minister right now, I don't think the electorate is prepared
for that. These are countries you know that we've spent
the last couple of decades distancing ourselves from. We have
you know, major issues, irritant issues with both India and China.
(08:46):
The assassination of a Sikh activist in Canada, the incarceration
of two Canadians in China for two years. You know,
there's context for that, by the way, as well, But
we got a long way to go when repairing bilateral relations,
and I'm not sure at this point that there would
(09:10):
be public support for a move in that direction. For example,
in our recent Angus Reed poll, and it was shown
in the Globe article I wrote, showed that something like
only fourteen percent of respondents, you know, favored greater trade
trade with China, and I think like four or five
with India versus fifty seven fifty eight percent with the EU.
(09:35):
You know, that just shows, you know, how out of
line the geopolitico is with the urgency of finding new
trading partners. Now, you know, Brian, give us another year
of American tariffs where the anger turns to fear, and
(09:55):
we may find the Canadian electorate much more receptive to
chasing the Indian and Chinese markets. But you know, in
a world where trade is sort of fractured in geopolitical blocks,
we're in the wrong block. So you know, we we
(10:17):
basically would have to become a bricks country if we did.
I think that is a viable alternative. To the American market,
and can.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
We actually change which block we're in, Like, isn't geography gravitation?
Aren't we wetted better for worse to the United States?
Speaker 3 (10:32):
Well, I mean for reasons of geography, of course, not
to mention history, but I mean, if we're going to
be facing you know, thirty five percent tariffs on non
cosma exports, fifty percent tariffs on steel and aluminum, geography
is not going to amount to much. I would point
out that I think that China, for example, if you
(10:55):
want to talk about geography, would love to get a
foothold in North of America.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
You know, it was.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
Only about ten years ago that actually it was the
current it is the current finance minister who was then
handling the negotiations of a free trade agreement with China
which fell through.
Speaker 4 (11:16):
You know, I'm sure they'd love to go ahead.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
With that, and that certainly would not be the outcome
that President Trump is hoping to achieve from his tariffs.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
The non tariff barriers that you indicated that we have
with the EU or the EU has with us. You know,
Pierre Trudeau Senior was trying to increase our trade with Europe.
When was it fifty years ago and talked about, you know,
Canadian diversification of trade for a long period of time.
Is there any opportunity even if you say public opinion
(11:50):
polls support increased trade with Europe, is there any opportunity
to increase that trade with Europe? Or as you say,
is is Asia, is China, is India? The only options
that we've got.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
I think there's very limited opportunity to increase trade with Europe.
And by the way, you know, these EU economies aren't
growing at you know, even a fraction of the rate
of a of a China, a Brazil, in India, or
for that matter, even Russia. You know, you're talking about
(12:22):
stagnant economies in no small measure because of their own
sanctions on Russian energy, particularly natural gas, that has sent
power and energy prices skyrocketing. And this is a very
protectionist culture here, you know, firmly embedded. So you know,
(12:45):
if you if you want to look at autos for example,
you know, Germany exports ten times the amount of vehicles
to Canada that Canada exports to UH to Western Europe.
Speaker 4 (12:58):
So I wouldn't be too hopeful there.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
As I say, we've had a free trade agreement for
the last oh ten years and exports to the EU
and the UK are pretty well flatlined at ten percent.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
So I had Jim Stanford of you know, formerly of
the Canadian autoworkers on the show a week ago, and
he was saying that we should go back to sort
of the nineteen sixties autopack, where you give people access
to your market if they buy as much as they sell.
Would you support that? Saying to Germany, you know, if
you're going to sell X number of cars to Canada, fine,
but you got to buy that same number of cars that.
Speaker 4 (13:37):
You know what, I couldn't agree more. And that's exactly.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
Where we're probably going to back to the future because COSMA,
the Canada US Mexico trade agreement is a dead man walking.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
It will not.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
Get renewed when it comes up for mandatory roof you
next year because Donald Trump isn't interested in renewing that. So,
you know, all of a sudden, we're going back to
the world that existed, you know, before the auto packed,
where there was hardly any cross border trade. Even though
(14:18):
the firms in the industry were the same. It was
General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, but they operated independently, and then,
of course, you know the autopack. What the autopack did
was it guaranteed Canadian production equal to car sales. And
(14:41):
what that allowed for is a whole change in the
way that auto firms operated. They could specialize in producing
one or two models and produced for the entire North
American market before they would produce, you know, in small
all production runs all the cars produced in Canada. So
(15:04):
the result was that, due to a lack of scale economies,
productivity was about a third lower in Canadian auto plants
than an American auto plants, and consumers had a much
narrower choice of model selection. So that's probably the world
where we're going back to, and certainly that could be
(15:29):
applied to Audie Mercedes BMW. You know, if you want
to sell cars in this market, you have to produce them.
I'll guarantee you they'll be doing that in the United
States to avoid the tariffs that Trump will be imposing
on them.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
It's sort of a strategy pretty comparable to what Donald
Trump is trying to extract from all the different countries
he's negotiating free trade agreements with exactly.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
And you know, I mean, if Donald Trump said that
NAFTA was a disaster for the Canadian auto for the
American auto industry, it was an even bigger disaster for
the Canadian auto industry. It's just that no one seemed
to care in Autowa about Canadian auto workers. They were
(16:18):
more concerned about Magna shareholders and how much money Magna
could save by moving production to Mexico. But you know,
back in the day, you know, back in two thousand
and four, Canada produced almost three million vehicles, like double
(16:38):
what it produces now, and Ontario surpassed Michigan as the
largest manufacturer of vehicles on the continent. You know how
things have changed. You know, we've seen we've just seen
total mass exodus of production. But you know, Trump's tariffs
start to bring those jobs back, and I think he's
(17:00):
doing an excellent job. I think, you know, this is
a great news story for American auto workers. If tariffs
can can bring back jobs and investment in the US
auto industry, then guess what tariffs can bring back the
same in the Canadian auto industry. Obviously not on the
(17:20):
scale of what's happening in the US, but but yes,
I mean, all of a sudden, GM Chrysler Stelliantis or Ford,
you know, faces a twenty five thirty percent tariff selling
their cars into Canada. They're going to have to produce
those cars in Canada. Now. It may be in short,
(17:43):
inefficient production lines compared to what existed in the past,
but that's better than no production at all.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
So look, you got to tell me something then, you know,
with the whole elbows up attitude and lots of talk
about tit for tat negotiations and you got to have
reciprocal tariffs to fight to Trump, we haven't had reciprocal tariffs.
Speaker 3 (18:05):
No, well, whether we well we I mean, I think
what we will have to have reciprocal tariffs. If Kusma
is scrapped. Carney's you know, still dreaming that Cosma will
be renewed, or at least that's what he's telling Canadians.
(18:26):
But if Canadians listen to what President Trump and his
officials are saying, it's it's unlikely that Cosma will be renewed.
But in terms of retaliation tit for tat, I'm not
saying we shouldn't. I'm just saying that, in big picture terms,
we're going to lose, okay, and we're going to lose,
(18:47):
not because of the negotiating skill of Prime Minister Carney.
We're going to lose because of the cards he's holding.
He's holding a losing hand. And the reason for that
is economics, not you know, not sort of the new
political maneuvering of leaders, and the economics is really simple.
(19:10):
The American market is you know, the way more important
to the Canadian economy than the Canadian market is to
the US economy. I mean not even remotely close. Okay,
exports are three to four times more important in Canada
than they are in the US, and three quarters of
(19:33):
our experts go to the US.
Speaker 4 (19:34):
So we're going to lose.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
That's why we got to find new options. That's why
bricks is an answer. And you know, you know, if if,
if Russia could you know, survive the loss of West
European natural gas markets, which was its bread and butter,
we should be able to survive the loss of American markets.
(20:02):
But we have to have a trade alternative, and right
now we don't have one. So yes, I mean, sure
we can retaliate, and in the case of autos, I
think that would be particularly apropos to try to get
some investment in the industry here. But in big picture terms,
(20:24):
we're going to lose the trade war against the United
States because we need them a whole lot more than
they need us.
Speaker 4 (20:32):
I mean, Trump's.
Speaker 3 (20:34):
Right, they don't have to import cars or aluminum or
softwood lumber or steal The only thing that they need
to import from Canada is oil, and that's a separate issue.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
We're chatting with Jeff Rubin today about his thinking about
the Canadian economy. He's written a really interesting book about
how things have changed. It's called The Map for the
New Normal. He's written a recent bed in the Globle
Mail that was really quite hard hitting about what Canada
needs to do. We're going to take a break for
some messages and come back with Jeff Rubin, one of Canada's,
if not Canda's top economists, in just two minutes. Stay
(21:10):
with us, everyone back in two minutes.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
Stream us live at SAGA nine to six am dot C.
Speaker 2 (21:19):
A welcome back everyone to the Brian Crimby Radio Hour.
I've got Jeff Rubin, a former chief economist with one
of Canada's major banks, now an author of an incredibly
(21:40):
interesting book called The Map of the New Normal, and
he's talking about the Canadian economy, the Canadian budget, where
we got to go with us today? Jeff, when I
read your book, I got the impression that you thought
things had changed geopolitically, fairly dramatically, that this era of
free trade and you know, dramatic increases in amounts of
(22:02):
trade worldwide was over, and that you sort of had
to pick which block you were going to be part of,
which is sort of what we've been chatting but for
the last couple of minutes, and so I got to
ask you why, you know, we had this huge amount
of increase in productivity, of economics, of prosperity, of you know,
what is it, a billion people coming out of poverty
in China? You know, we had an era of incredible
(22:24):
growth worldwide. Free trade seemed to be working.
Speaker 4 (22:29):
Why is it over?
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Why has it changed? Why do we have to think
about things differently today?
Speaker 3 (22:34):
Okay, Well, first, Brian, you're absolutely right the casualty of
sanctions and that began before Trump, that began with Biden.
Trump's taking it to another level with Terras, but started
with Biden. The real casualty here was not the Russian economy.
The real casualty was the so called you know, rules
(22:56):
based trading order championed by you know, the World Trade Organization,
and you're right, globalization, something incidentally that we were told
repeatedly was not only in our interests, but was inevitable
and immutable. Suddenly isn't so inevitable and immutable. It's now
(23:21):
in the dustbin of history. Why well, it did work great, Brian,
for China. I mean, China's inclusion in the you know,
the WTO around two thousand and one was probably the
most significant thing that's happened to the global economy and
certainly to the Chinese economy. Who was not great for
(23:47):
h And these are the people that have been championed
by the most unlikely of champions. For them, Donald Trump is.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
The middle class.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
Because the middle class got hollowed out. The manufacturing sector
got hollowed out because now, you know, you could produce
the same thing a fraction of the cost, and when
workers tried to go on strike for a higher pay,
you could just close the factory and you know, find
(24:18):
a supplier in China. And it worked great for consumers
because all of a sudden, the cost of everything was
that much less. And as inflation fell, so did interest rates,
so there were all kinds of benefits except for the
middle class.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
You know, and you talk about GDP.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
Growth, Well, you know what, for the middle class, GDP
growth didn't mean anything. It was an abstraction, never filtered
down to them. You know, sure, you know, income per
capita rows, but not their income per capita. You know,
the top twenty percent had huge gains, so it made
the average income per capita looked like it was rising.
(25:03):
The middle class was left behind and left for dead.
And and not just in the United States, I mean
equally true of Canada or Australia or Western Europe. And
then all of a sudden, you know, Donald Trump changed that.
I mean, tariffs had no constituency among the economic community
(25:25):
at all. But Donald Trump didn't care what economists had
to say. And you know, from for his constituency, the
middle class, Donald Trump was one hundred percent correct. So
the trade off that globalization involved was, you know, we'd
get low inflation, but you know, we wouldn't have a
(25:48):
middle class anymore because we wouldn't make anything, make goods anymore.
Speaker 4 (25:53):
Well that's been reversed.
Speaker 3 (25:54):
Okay, we are getting those jobs back. Jobs that President
Obama or Lary Clinton said we'd never get back. And
we are starting to see, you know, investment in the
manufacturing sector like we haven't seen.
Speaker 4 (26:11):
In decades the United States. In the United States.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
Yes, yes, yes, no, as a result of these tariffs.
Although you know, Brian, I you know, we talked about
going back to the autopack. If we put a twenty
five thirty percent tariff on car imports into Canada, I
guarantee you there'd be investment because they'd have to you know,
(26:35):
GM would have to retool that Oshawa plant that hardly
makes anything anymore. I think it still makes the Silverado,
and it would have to start making you know, nine
ten different models that GM wants to sell in Canada
but can't supply from its US plants because of the tariffs.
But right now that's not happening, but it is happening
(26:57):
in spades in the US, whether it's the steel industry,
the aluminum industry, or the auto industry.
Speaker 2 (27:04):
Look, you're telling us that there's no way that you
can adapt, that it's going to cost billions of dollars
and take ten years to build a new steel plant
or aluminum plant or car plant or something like that.
How can you be right that Trump tariffs are bringing
jobs back to the United States.
Speaker 3 (27:19):
Just look at all the investment announcements that you're seeing
from from automakers, whether they're Japanese automakers or German automakers
in the US market, and you are seeing increases in
US productions as a lot of production has been moved
from from Canada to the US. Like, for example, the
(27:42):
Silverado that was being made in.
Speaker 4 (27:46):
Oshawa.
Speaker 3 (27:47):
Well they've just they've just added some new shifts in
the Fort Wayne, Indiana plant.
Speaker 4 (27:53):
So you are seeing production move to the US.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
So let me ask you a question. Let's let's take
a step back if we could. You know, if the
company had seventy five percent or eighty percent of its
business with one customer, any you know banker at CIBC
or BIMO or something like that would say you're over
reliant on one customer and I'm not going to take
a credit risk with you. We've had seventy five or
something percent of our trade with one customer and it's
(28:17):
now in jeopardy. Going back to nineteen eighty eight, you
know John Turner and Brian Malroney had this big debate
about free trade. It was the free trade election. John
Turner argued against step free trade and said that if
you give up your economic sovereignty, ultimately your political sovereignty
will be put at risk.
Speaker 3 (28:36):
Was he right?
Speaker 2 (28:37):
Was Brian o'roonney wrong? Was free trade a mistake because
we became too wedded, too dependent on US trade and
we took the easy way out for fifty years, where
we tristraded with someone a couple hundred miles south of US,
rather than doing the difficult job of creating economic opportunities
to grow our industries in Europe or in Asia.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
Well, it's always dangerous to judge people in a different
time context. There's no question that since the free trade
Agreement for the last forty years has seen the ever
increasing integration of the Canadian economy into the US economy.
(29:24):
And you know that speaks You mentioned geography earlier in
the show. Well, it's only natural that that occurred given
the geography. Now, was mulroney right? Was Turner right? I mean,
here's here's the thing. The US took one hundred and
eighty degree turn Okay, Donald Trump.
Speaker 4 (29:46):
Was the new normal.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
It's a very different normal than had existed for the
forty years since we signed that trade agreement up until
is his first presidency. So you know, things were going
not well for the auto industry, but as a whole,
(30:08):
for the Canadian economy, things were going quite well, you know,
in the sort of integrated globalist model with the US.
But then you know, the ball changed and I guess
in ways that were never imagined. I mean, don't forget that,
you know, going back to twenty sixteen, First of all,
(30:30):
the media said that Trump could never get the Republican nomination.
Then the media said didn't stand a chance against Hillary Clinton,
and then you know, the media said, oh, he wouldn't
get re elected, even though you know, he not only
got re elected but took the House and Senate as well.
So you know, this is a black Swan event or
(30:56):
whatever you want to call it. But this was not
anticipate by the mainstream.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
So some people are saying, let's just wait for the midterms,
or just let's wait for twenty twenty eight. What do
you think about that?
Speaker 3 (31:08):
Okay, well, let's wait for the midterms because the Democrats
aren't exactly hitting it out of the park, and this
shutdown that they've engineered isn't endearing them to a lot
of voters. At some point the Democrats will come back.
They need to find, you know, a new voice, like
(31:30):
a Bill Clinton type of guy coming out of the woodwork.
But you know, Trump has moved the needle. I mean,
look at the Republican Party. It's not sort of the
Maga wing of the Republican Party. The Maga wing is
of the Republican Party. And you know, he's changed the
(31:51):
way people think so that you know, whether he's succeeded
by the Vice president or Rubio or know whoever, of
his administration, I think is very much gonna uh going
to carry the day that you know, tariffs and protectionism
is the new normal, and you know, I think that
(32:13):
that's going to outlast Donald Trump. And we here in Canada,
you know, can't roll the dice, you know, listening to
CNN and you know how how the Democrats are going
to just you know, sweep in the in the midterms,
just like they were their other calls about Trump and
(32:34):
past elections.
Speaker 4 (32:35):
We can't roll the dice.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
Uh, you know, uh, we gotta we gotta find other options.
We got to lessen our dependency on the US economy. Uh,
Carney's right. I mean, it's not something that you can
do overnight. But you know, the big priority here should
not be appeasing Donald Trump. The big priority here is
(33:00):
should be repairing relations with China and India.
Speaker 2 (33:05):
Well, so Carnee was over in Asia recently. He met
with both the head of India as well as she
in China as well as South Korea and other places.
Isn't that the right strategy? It's too little, too.
Speaker 3 (33:19):
Late, don too little. It's a small step in the
right direction. But you know, like if you want to
talk about China, that that hundred percent electric car vehicle
tariff is still there and Canadian farmers are losing billions
of dollars in sales. So you know, I if I
(33:39):
would have hoped that, you know, Carnie would have come
to an agreement with She right then and there saying
we don't manufacture any electric vehicle anymore since the Ingersol
plant has been closed because of American tariffs, by the way,
so we're dropping that. But that's only you know, even
that is only a small step, because you know, we
(34:03):
got to get China to do for us what they
did for Russia. We got to like, you know, not
just maintain trade with China. We got to get China
buying everything that's being tariffed in the United States. I
mean they could if they were properly incented. And here
(34:24):
we got to get back to the whole geopolitical orbit.
You know, if we offer China a free trade agreement
and a foothold in North America, that would be a game.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Jan Jeff, do we have goods they want? You know,
I'm in business. I'm dealing with a company that flies
twice a week from China to Canada, stops in two
different airports filled with goods that people are buying, fast
fashion and other things. They then fill up with lobster
and fly back to China. The only thing that the
(34:57):
planes are flying back to China with is lobsters.
Speaker 3 (35:01):
Well they aren't anymore because China's put a huge terrify
on our lobsters in retaliation to the electric vehicle. But
China is a huge It's the world's largest consumer of resources,
and we, along with Russia, are you know, the world's
largest resource producer. Whether we're talking you know, oil and gas,
(35:26):
you know, whether we're talking uranium, you know, whether we're
talking grain, whether we're talking peas and lentils.
Speaker 4 (35:34):
You know, I think it's it's it's a very good fit.
Speaker 3 (35:39):
And uh and one that I think China would be
very willing to do. But you know, the Canadian public
isn't going to change their attitudes towards China and India,
which have been you know, constantly maligned in the Canadian media.
(35:59):
That's not going to change overnight. So I get back
to my question. Even if Carney was so inclined, and
I don't know if he is, but let's just assume
for the sake of argument that he is so inclined
to move in a Bricks direction, is there political support
(36:21):
for that in Canada among the electorate right now?
Speaker 2 (36:24):
In your book you talked about this new normal geopolitical
was one of them. What were some of the other
changes that you thought, well, we're happy that we needed
to adapt to.
Speaker 4 (36:35):
Well, I mean, there is a war going on.
Speaker 3 (36:38):
It's an economic war between Bricks and the United States.
And by the way, sanctions aren't a one way street,
They're a two way street. Because the US has been sanctioned,
It's currency has been sanctioned, and it's currency has been
sanctioned by some of the largest central banks in the world.
(37:03):
You know, you notice the US trade weighted. I mean,
they've they've gone up against Canada, but they've basically fallen.
And one of the reasons they've fallen is that there
has been massive selling of US dollars by brick central banks,
in particular the People's Bank of China. And it's one
(37:25):
of the factors underlying the strength of gold, because that's
become a substitute. And this was all sort of brought
brought on by the US itself because when they confiscated
some three hundred billion dollars of dollar assets held by
Russia Central Bank, what President Biden didn't realize was that
(37:49):
he was undermining one of the pillars that had made
the US dollar the reserve currency of the world, and
that was that, you know, it was view as an
insurance policy, a safe haven. Well, now all of a
sudden it could become a tick and time bomb because
at any point the White House could decide to confiscate
(38:12):
those dollar reserves and there's no way a central bank
could hedge that risk except not hold US dollars. I mean,
the same thing happened when they wouldn't allow Russia to
use the dollar for its natural gas and oil exports,
and Russia instead chose the ruble. Well, up until the
(38:33):
Ukrainian conflict, some ninety percent of oil and gas was
traded in US dollars. That's no longer the case. You know,
when the largest energy import or China, and the largest
oil export or Saudi Arabia are no longer conducting their
business and dollars.
Speaker 4 (38:55):
You know that's a change too.
Speaker 3 (38:56):
So you know, sanctions aren't just we just hear about
what we're imposing on Russia or China, but believe me,
it's a two way street.
Speaker 2 (39:07):
We're gonna take a break for some messages and come
back in just two minutes with Jeff Rubin talking about
how things have changed, what's the new normal? And he's
the author of a great new book, an author of
an op ed recently in the Gold mad that's really
challenged us to think about a map of the new
normal and where canad needs to go. Say, what's everyone
back into.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
No Radio, No Problem stream is live on SAGA ninety
six am.
Speaker 2 (39:36):
Dot C A welcome back everyone to the Brian Crombie
Radio or I've got economist an author Jeff Rubin with
us tonight. Jeff, what's the title of the book.
Speaker 3 (39:55):
Please, it's called a map of the new normal.
Speaker 2 (39:58):
And where can people get it?
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Any bookstore, Amazon, you know it's available.
Speaker 2 (40:04):
I appreciate, I appreciate you joining us today. I've got
to ask you if I could to go back to
your comments about the substantial investments in the budget and
given what you've described and the challenges that we've got,
and you know, Canada's been challenged economically before, was challenged
with people prior to confederation thinking that we should join
(40:26):
the United States, and Johnny MacDonald had the national you know,
railways that he talked about. We were challenged in the
eighteen nineties when McKinley, who Trump seems to emulate, talked
about Canada joining the United States and we ended up
having big infrastructure spending at that point in time. Don't
you think whether it's you know, the major projects office,
(40:50):
the pipelines that we're talking about, the liquid flied natural gas,
the investment in defense, et cetera, that are causing the
increase in the deficit. Aren't those smart things to do?
Speaker 3 (41:00):
Well, Let's talk about pipelines, because I think pipelines is
the equivalent of building the transcontinental Railway.
Speaker 4 (41:10):
In Sir John A.
Speaker 3 (41:12):
McDonald's time, it is the issue, probably the most important
issue for the Canadian economy. Mark Carney likes to talk
of Canada as an energy superpower, but and he'll cite
(41:32):
the fact that we have the third largest oil reserves
that maybe the fourth fifth largest natural gas reserves. But
it takes more than natural endowments to become an energy superpower.
It takes political will to develop those resources. Now, if
(41:54):
you look at countries that are legitimate energy superpowers, countries
like Saudi Arabia, countries like Russia, countries like the United States,
they have the political will to build the required infrastructure.
We have sadly lacked, and that's why we produce half
(42:18):
of what those countries produce in oil production, and what
we do produce have to accept a huge discount from
world prices because our oil is trapped.
Speaker 4 (42:32):
It's trapped into the.
Speaker 3 (42:34):
US market and the only way that we're going to
get out of that trap is by building pipelines to tidewater. Now,
you know, you notice in Carney's list of projects that
he's going to fast track, noticeably absent is such a pipeline.
(42:56):
And the reason for that is that in this country,
first nation groups and provinces have effective veto power over
new pipeline construction.
Speaker 4 (43:09):
And they haven't been shy about using it. That's going
to have to change, or.
Speaker 3 (43:18):
I think that we're going to see, you know, an
internal political challenge the likes of which we have not
seen since the Quebec referendum, because I think that we're
forcing Alberta into, you know, into a position that it
(43:40):
has not taken in the past, but may take in
the future.
Speaker 4 (43:44):
So Daniel Smith is right.
Speaker 3 (43:47):
It's if Daniel Smith does not advance the referendum, somebody
else will. Like nature politics abhors a vacuum, and from
Alberta's perspective, and you know, as a person who's lived
in Toronto all my life, I totally empathize with Alberta's perspective.
(44:10):
The lack of pipelines has frustrated the development of their
most important economic resource, if not the country's most important
economic resource, and that is the oil sands, and the
very provinces that have blocked that are the same provinces
(44:30):
that Alberta must support through equalization payments. I don't think
that's a sustainable arrangement going forward, particularly when you have
an expansionist US president in the White House. You know,
I don't know about Canada becoming the fifty first state,
(44:51):
but if the status quo doesn't change on pipelines, don't
rule out the prospect of Alberta becoming the fifty first
date because Trump's already on record as saying, you know,
he's in favor of bringing back the mothballed Keystone XL
pipeline that Biden counseled.
Speaker 2 (45:13):
Okay, so pipelines have got to be part of the
infrastructure expenditure. What about the balance of you know, people
are talking about critical minerals, they're talking about luquefied natural gas,
they're talking about lots of other developments, aren't those.
Speaker 3 (45:27):
Ll G is certainly something that we need to do
and have done, and there'll probably be an expansion in Kidamat.
But you know, the US have coined it by replacing
pipeline Russian gas with LNG exports from the Gulf to Europe.
(45:50):
Why can't we get involved in that? Well, we can't
get involved in that because we don't have a pipeline
that would take LLNG to the East coast. And again,
you know that remains something that lies outside of the doable.
But you know, failure to build the kind of infrastructure
(46:13):
that I'm talking about, makes, in my opinion, a mockery
of the claim that we're in energy superpower, because it
takes more than natural endowments to be an energy superpower.
Speaker 2 (46:28):
I can't let you go without asking about real estate.
You started by talking about the impact on your own
personal mortgage. Sixty percent of Canadian mortgages roll over in
the next eighteen months, supposedly.
Speaker 4 (46:39):
Right from record lows.
Speaker 3 (46:41):
I mean, my mortgage was one point ninety five. That
came doe because I, like many people locked in during
the pandemic. And as you mentioned, you know, sixty percent
of those mortgages are coming up, and they're not going
to be refinanced anywhere close to that. And I think
with the amount of government borrowing and its impact on
(47:04):
the bond market, that fixed term, fixed rate mortgages are
going to rise. So, Brian, that's not generally helpful for
the real estate market, and you know, I think it'll
continue to be, at least for the foreseeable future.
Speaker 4 (47:20):
Tough sledding.
Speaker 2 (47:21):
So you called the nineteen ninety crash in real estate
that hardly anyone else I was thinking about coming, and
you called it right we've had a decline in real
estate pricing in Canada. Is it going to be worse
or is it going to get better? Some people are
saying that the supply increases are so low, that building
starts are so low, that actually it's going to go
(47:43):
the opposite direction. In twenty twenty eight, twenty nine, what's
your sense of the real estate marketing cannabis.
Speaker 3 (47:48):
Well, but don't forget that that immigration was a huge
driver of real estate prices and that's changed. I you know,
I'm not particularly positive on the real estate market. I'm
not saying that we're going to have like a nineteen
ninety crash. As you pointed out, we've already seen, particularly
(48:09):
in the condo market places like Vancouver, in Toronto, you know,
significant declines. But I don't see I don't see the
budgets impact on bond yields being supportive of the real
estate market because I think it's going to have a
negative impact on fixed rate mortgages.
Speaker 2 (48:33):
So where do you put your money today?
Speaker 4 (48:36):
Well, you know, the stock market. The stock market's.
Speaker 3 (48:40):
Doings just fine, ironically, the Canadian market because of gold.
But you know, the S and P five hundred, the
Nasdaq is doing fine, and it's doing fine because the
one surprise is that we have not seen Maybe it's
(49:00):
too early, but we have not seen the big inflationary
fallout from Trump's tariffs. To be sure, inflation is no
longer two percent, it's you know, it's three percent and
it's probably going to stay there. But you know, people
were expecting, you know, huge increases in inflation from these tariffs,
(49:21):
assuming that the terriffs would just be passed on and
not eaten. And that's proven to be incorrect.
Speaker 4 (49:27):
So that's that's.
Speaker 3 (49:29):
You know, kept interest rates in check and that's I
think created a lot of blue sky for the stock markets.
Whether that continues to be the case, we'll see. It's
going to depend on inflation. And right now the big
mystery or anomaly is tariffs have not had the inflationary
(49:50):
impact that certainly their critics we're calling for.
Speaker 2 (49:54):
Jeff Ruben, thank you so much for joining us. I
really appreciate it.
Speaker 4 (49:57):
My pleasure.
Speaker 2 (49:58):
That's our show for tonight. Everybody, thank you for joining.
I highly recommend you follow Jeff Rubin, you buy his book.
He is one of the best thinkers in Canada at
someone who I've enjoyed following for a long period of time.
Jeff remind us the title.
Speaker 4 (50:12):
Of the book please a map of the New norm.
Speaker 2 (50:15):
And his op ed in The Little Mill from a
week or so ago is extremely well worth reading. That's
for shore for tonight. Thanks for joining us, everybody.
Speaker 1 (50:22):
Good night, no radio, no problem. Stream is live on
SAGA nine six am dot cl
The views expressed in the following program are those of
the participants and do not necessarily reflect the views of
SAGA nine sixty am or its management.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Good evening, everyone, Welcome to the Brian crimew Radio Hour.
I have been following a gentleman by the name of
Jeff Rubin for I think three decades now as one
of the top thinkers from an economy economic standpoint in
the Canadian economy. He wrote a really interesting op ed
recently in the Goldmail that we're going to talk about.
He's got some strong opinions on the Canadian economy, the budget, etc.
(00:39):
We're going to talk about that. He's in recent author
and Jeff tell us the book that you've recently published.
It's a Map for the New Normal or something, a
map of the.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
New Normal, and it was just recently a finalist for
the National Business Book.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Award, and it was a really interesting book talking about
how geopolitics has changed, how the economy has changed, and
how we've got to really address so these changes. And
I think your op ed argued that we're effectively not
doing any of the above. So what'd you think of
the budget, sir?
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Well, this is how I responded to the budget. Like
many Canadians, I have a mortgage. I had what was
called a three year variable flex mortgage, which allowed me
to lock into a fixed rate three to five year mortgage.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
At any time I want it.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
When I saw the deficit number, and not just for
the current year, but for the next five years, I
immediately decided to lock in to a five year fixed rate.
It was around three point seven nine something around there.
Speaker 4 (01:53):
And the reason.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
I did that, of course, is because, as you know, Brian,
three five year fixed rate mortgages are priced off the
Government of Canada yield curve, and there is an enormous
amount of issuance that the bond market is going to
(02:16):
have to absorb here unless the Bank of Canada is
going to once again turn on the printing presses like
they did with their quantitative easing program during the pandemic.
But let's assume that they're not. That's a massive amount
of issuance and it's going to push bond yields higher
regardless of whether the Bank of Canada will cut rates again,
(02:38):
and I think with this amount of fiscal stimulus, the
Bank's probably done cutting rates, but you know, in any event,
we're looking at higher bond yields and hence higher mortgage rates.
So from a homeowner's perspective, this was not a good
news budget because of course, not only are they facing
(03:02):
slumping real estate values but probably soon rising mortgage rates. Now,
as for you know, the grand narrative of the budget,
you know, so called generational change, the grand narrative is
that all of this, you know, eighty six billion dollars
(03:23):
or so of new spending is going to trigger an
avalanche of investment as much as one trillion dollars over
the next five years. Well, I'll short that trade, and
let me tell you why, Brian, Because while I don't
deny that, you know, public sector investment can leaver private
(03:48):
sector investment, you know, and joint joint funding efforts. You
got to ask yourself, who would go right now and
invest in a new plant in the Canadian in aluminum
or steel, or auto or softwood lumber industry knowing that
you won't be able to sell anything produced in that
(04:10):
plant to in the American market because of terroriffts. So,
while you know fiscal policy can be a substitute for
monetary policy, fiscal stimulus can be a substitute for monetary stimulus.
It's not a substitute for trade policy, because we've got
(04:32):
to get back to the whole issue of Canada is
one of the most export dependent economies in the world.
Exports almost forty percent of GDP. Three quarters of that
go to a country that's pretty well bent on shutting
US out. We have to find some new trading partners
(04:53):
in a hurry. You know, Mark Carney has recently said
that he wants to double non US exports in the
next ten years. That's great, but I think he's looking
in the wrong places because we're certainly not going to
(05:14):
double them with where he's suggesting the EU. You know,
we've had a free trade agreement with the EU for
the last ten years. Exports of flat lined, and the
reason is because it's it's not really a free trade
agreement because what really protects the EU are non tariff barriers.
(05:34):
I mean, you know, try selling an Ontario made car
in the German car market, or try selling some Quebec
cheese in the French or Italian market, and you'll get
appreciation of.
Speaker 4 (05:46):
What I'm saying.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
You know, if we are going to replace the US,
the countries that can do that, that have the economic
weight to do that are the bricks countries I speak
of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa now recently joined
Saudi Arabia Iran. The two key countries here are India
(06:10):
and China. And if you have any doubt as to
their ability to shelter us from the storm, just look
what they did for Russian energy exports. You may recall
Brian President Biden, when he announced sanctions against Russia for
the invasion of Ukraine, said these were the most crippling
(06:34):
sanctions ever imposed and would bring the Russian economy to
its knees. Well, that all turned out to be nonsense.
I mean, Russia's energy export earnings hit record highs, and
that's because India and China opened their vast energy markets
with welcoming arms to sanctioned Russian fuel.
Speaker 4 (06:55):
If they did that for Russia, could.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
They not also do that for Canada provide a sanctuary
from Trump's tariffs?
Speaker 4 (07:05):
They could.
Speaker 3 (07:06):
But the huge difference is, of course, that Russia's a
geopolitical ally of China and India, and we have absolutely terrible
relations with China and India. So if we're going to
go down that path, we're going to have to recalibrate
our foreign policy. And that's something that I don't think
(07:29):
the majority of Canadians right now feel that comfortable with.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
So what do you think Karnie should have done well?
Speaker 4 (07:37):
I mean, here's the problem.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
I mean, Carnee should have, for example, dropped the one
hundred percent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles because we don't
produce any electric vehicles anymore. With the ingersol plants shut
down in exchange for them dropping the tariffs on canola,
(08:01):
pork and seafood, that would be an initial step, but
we got to do way more than that. I mean,
if China and India are going to play the role
for us that they did for Russia, you know we've
got to basically sign free trade agreements with them. And
you know the challenge is and not just for Carnage,
(08:21):
because to be fair here, for for any Canadian prime
minister right now, I don't think the electorate is prepared
for that. These are countries you know that we've spent
the last couple of decades distancing ourselves from. We have
you know, major issues, irritant issues with both India and China.
(08:46):
The assassination of a Sikh activist in Canada, the incarceration
of two Canadians in China for two years. You know,
there's context for that, by the way, as well, But
we got a long way to go when repairing bilateral relations,
and I'm not sure at this point that there would
(09:10):
be public support for a move in that direction. For example,
in our recent Angus Reed poll, and it was shown
in the Globe article I wrote, showed that something like
only fourteen percent of respondents, you know, favored greater trade
trade with China, and I think like four or five
with India versus fifty seven fifty eight percent with the EU.
(09:35):
You know, that just shows, you know, how out of
line the geopolitico is with the urgency of finding new
trading partners. Now, you know, Brian, give us another year
of American tariffs where the anger turns to fear, and
(09:55):
we may find the Canadian electorate much more receptive to
chasing the Indian and Chinese markets. But you know, in
a world where trade is sort of fractured in geopolitical blocks,
we're in the wrong block. So you know, we we
(10:17):
basically would have to become a bricks country if we did.
I think that is a viable alternative. To the American market,
and can.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
We actually change which block we're in, Like, isn't geography gravitation?
Aren't we wetted better for worse to the United States?
Speaker 3 (10:32):
Well, I mean for reasons of geography, of course, not
to mention history, but I mean, if we're going to
be facing you know, thirty five percent tariffs on non
cosma exports, fifty percent tariffs on steel and aluminum, geography
is not going to amount to much. I would point
out that I think that China, for example, if you
(10:55):
want to talk about geography, would love to get a
foothold in North of America.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
You know, it was.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
Only about ten years ago that actually it was the
current it is the current finance minister who was then
handling the negotiations of a free trade agreement with China
which fell through.
Speaker 4 (11:16):
You know, I'm sure they'd love to go ahead.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
With that, and that certainly would not be the outcome
that President Trump is hoping to achieve from his tariffs.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
The non tariff barriers that you indicated that we have
with the EU or the EU has with us. You know,
Pierre Trudeau Senior was trying to increase our trade with Europe.
When was it fifty years ago and talked about, you know,
Canadian diversification of trade for a long period of time.
Is there any opportunity even if you say public opinion
(11:50):
polls support increased trade with Europe, is there any opportunity
to increase that trade with Europe? Or as you say,
is is Asia, is China, is India? The only options
that we've got.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
I think there's very limited opportunity to increase trade with Europe.
And by the way, you know, these EU economies aren't
growing at you know, even a fraction of the rate
of a of a China, a Brazil, in India, or
for that matter, even Russia. You know, you're talking about
(12:22):
stagnant economies in no small measure because of their own
sanctions on Russian energy, particularly natural gas, that has sent
power and energy prices skyrocketing. And this is a very
protectionist culture here, you know, firmly embedded. So you know,
(12:45):
if you if you want to look at autos for example,
you know, Germany exports ten times the amount of vehicles
to Canada that Canada exports to UH to Western Europe.
Speaker 4 (12:58):
So I wouldn't be too hopeful there.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
As I say, we've had a free trade agreement for
the last oh ten years and exports to the EU
and the UK are pretty well flatlined at ten percent.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
So I had Jim Stanford of you know, formerly of
the Canadian autoworkers on the show a week ago, and
he was saying that we should go back to sort
of the nineteen sixties autopack, where you give people access
to your market if they buy as much as they sell.
Would you support that? Saying to Germany, you know, if
you're going to sell X number of cars to Canada, fine,
but you got to buy that same number of cars that.
Speaker 4 (13:37):
You know what, I couldn't agree more. And that's exactly.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
Where we're probably going to back to the future because COSMA,
the Canada US Mexico trade agreement is a dead man walking.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
It will not.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
Get renewed when it comes up for mandatory roof you
next year because Donald Trump isn't interested in renewing that. So,
you know, all of a sudden, we're going back to
the world that existed, you know, before the auto packed,
where there was hardly any cross border trade. Even though
(14:18):
the firms in the industry were the same. It was
General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, but they operated independently, and then,
of course, you know the autopack. What the autopack did
was it guaranteed Canadian production equal to car sales. And
(14:41):
what that allowed for is a whole change in the
way that auto firms operated. They could specialize in producing
one or two models and produced for the entire North
American market before they would produce, you know, in small
all production runs all the cars produced in Canada. So
(15:04):
the result was that, due to a lack of scale economies,
productivity was about a third lower in Canadian auto plants
than an American auto plants, and consumers had a much
narrower choice of model selection. So that's probably the world
where we're going back to, and certainly that could be
(15:29):
applied to Audie Mercedes BMW. You know, if you want
to sell cars in this market, you have to produce them.
I'll guarantee you they'll be doing that in the United
States to avoid the tariffs that Trump will be imposing
on them.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
It's sort of a strategy pretty comparable to what Donald
Trump is trying to extract from all the different countries
he's negotiating free trade agreements with exactly.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
And you know, I mean, if Donald Trump said that
NAFTA was a disaster for the Canadian auto for the
American auto industry, it was an even bigger disaster for
the Canadian auto industry. It's just that no one seemed
to care in Autowa about Canadian auto workers. They were
(16:18):
more concerned about Magna shareholders and how much money Magna
could save by moving production to Mexico. But you know,
back in the day, you know, back in two thousand
and four, Canada produced almost three million vehicles, like double
(16:38):
what it produces now, and Ontario surpassed Michigan as the
largest manufacturer of vehicles on the continent. You know how
things have changed. You know, we've seen we've just seen
total mass exodus of production. But you know, Trump's tariffs
start to bring those jobs back, and I think he's
(17:00):
doing an excellent job. I think, you know, this is
a great news story for American auto workers. If tariffs
can can bring back jobs and investment in the US
auto industry, then guess what tariffs can bring back the
same in the Canadian auto industry. Obviously not on the
(17:20):
scale of what's happening in the US, but but yes,
I mean, all of a sudden, GM Chrysler Stelliantis or Ford,
you know, faces a twenty five thirty percent tariff selling
their cars into Canada. They're going to have to produce
those cars in Canada. Now. It may be in short,
(17:43):
inefficient production lines compared to what existed in the past,
but that's better than no production at all.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
So look, you got to tell me something then, you know,
with the whole elbows up attitude and lots of talk
about tit for tat negotiations and you got to have
reciprocal tariffs to fight to Trump, we haven't had reciprocal tariffs.
Speaker 3 (18:05):
No, well, whether we well we I mean, I think
what we will have to have reciprocal tariffs. If Kusma
is scrapped. Carney's you know, still dreaming that Cosma will
be renewed, or at least that's what he's telling Canadians.
(18:26):
But if Canadians listen to what President Trump and his
officials are saying, it's it's unlikely that Cosma will be renewed.
But in terms of retaliation tit for tat, I'm not
saying we shouldn't. I'm just saying that, in big picture terms,
we're going to lose, okay, and we're going to lose,
(18:47):
not because of the negotiating skill of Prime Minister Carney.
We're going to lose because of the cards he's holding.
He's holding a losing hand. And the reason for that
is economics, not you know, not sort of the new
political maneuvering of leaders, and the economics is really simple.
(19:10):
The American market is you know, the way more important
to the Canadian economy than the Canadian market is to
the US economy. I mean not even remotely close. Okay,
exports are three to four times more important in Canada
than they are in the US, and three quarters of
(19:33):
our experts go to the US.
Speaker 4 (19:34):
So we're going to lose.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
That's why we got to find new options. That's why
bricks is an answer. And you know, you know, if if,
if Russia could you know, survive the loss of West
European natural gas markets, which was its bread and butter,
we should be able to survive the loss of American markets.
(20:02):
But we have to have a trade alternative, and right
now we don't have one. So yes, I mean, sure
we can retaliate, and in the case of autos, I
think that would be particularly apropos to try to get
some investment in the industry here. But in big picture terms,
(20:24):
we're going to lose the trade war against the United
States because we need them a whole lot more than
they need us.
Speaker 4 (20:32):
I mean, Trump's.
Speaker 3 (20:34):
Right, they don't have to import cars or aluminum or
softwood lumber or steal The only thing that they need
to import from Canada is oil, and that's a separate issue.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
We're chatting with Jeff Rubin today about his thinking about
the Canadian economy. He's written a really interesting book about
how things have changed. It's called The Map for the
New Normal. He's written a recent bed in the Globle
Mail that was really quite hard hitting about what Canada
needs to do. We're going to take a break for
some messages and come back with Jeff Rubin, one of Canada's,
if not Canda's top economists, in just two minutes. Stay
(21:10):
with us, everyone back in two minutes.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
Stream us live at SAGA nine to six am dot C.
Speaker 2 (21:19):
A welcome back everyone to the Brian Crimby Radio Hour.
I've got Jeff Rubin, a former chief economist with one
of Canada's major banks, now an author of an incredibly
(21:40):
interesting book called The Map of the New Normal, and
he's talking about the Canadian economy, the Canadian budget, where
we got to go with us today? Jeff, when I
read your book, I got the impression that you thought
things had changed geopolitically, fairly dramatically, that this era of
free trade and you know, dramatic increases in amounts of
(22:02):
trade worldwide was over, and that you sort of had
to pick which block you were going to be part of,
which is sort of what we've been chatting but for
the last couple of minutes, and so I got to
ask you why, you know, we had this huge amount
of increase in productivity, of economics, of prosperity, of you know,
what is it, a billion people coming out of poverty
in China? You know, we had an era of incredible
(22:24):
growth worldwide. Free trade seemed to be working.
Speaker 4 (22:29):
Why is it over?
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Why has it changed? Why do we have to think
about things differently today?
Speaker 3 (22:34):
Okay, Well, first, Brian, you're absolutely right the casualty of
sanctions and that began before Trump, that began with Biden.
Trump's taking it to another level with Terras, but started
with Biden. The real casualty here was not the Russian economy.
The real casualty was the so called you know, rules
(22:56):
based trading order championed by you know, the World Trade Organization,
and you're right, globalization, something incidentally that we were told
repeatedly was not only in our interests, but was inevitable
and immutable. Suddenly isn't so inevitable and immutable. It's now
(23:21):
in the dustbin of history. Why well, it did work great, Brian,
for China. I mean, China's inclusion in the you know,
the WTO around two thousand and one was probably the
most significant thing that's happened to the global economy and
certainly to the Chinese economy. Who was not great for
(23:47):
h And these are the people that have been championed
by the most unlikely of champions. For them, Donald Trump is.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
The middle class.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
Because the middle class got hollowed out. The manufacturing sector
got hollowed out because now, you know, you could produce
the same thing a fraction of the cost, and when
workers tried to go on strike for a higher pay,
you could just close the factory and you know, find
(24:18):
a supplier in China. And it worked great for consumers
because all of a sudden, the cost of everything was
that much less. And as inflation fell, so did interest rates,
so there were all kinds of benefits except for the
middle class.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
You know, and you talk about GDP.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
Growth, Well, you know what, for the middle class, GDP
growth didn't mean anything. It was an abstraction, never filtered
down to them. You know, sure, you know, income per
capita rows, but not their income per capita. You know,
the top twenty percent had huge gains, so it made
the average income per capita looked like it was rising.
(25:03):
The middle class was left behind and left for dead.
And and not just in the United States, I mean
equally true of Canada or Australia or Western Europe. And
then all of a sudden, you know, Donald Trump changed that.
I mean, tariffs had no constituency among the economic community
(25:25):
at all. But Donald Trump didn't care what economists had
to say. And you know, from for his constituency, the
middle class, Donald Trump was one hundred percent correct. So
the trade off that globalization involved was, you know, we'd
get low inflation, but you know, we wouldn't have a
(25:48):
middle class anymore because we wouldn't make anything, make goods anymore.
Speaker 4 (25:53):
Well that's been reversed.
Speaker 3 (25:54):
Okay, we are getting those jobs back. Jobs that President
Obama or Lary Clinton said we'd never get back. And
we are starting to see, you know, investment in the
manufacturing sector like we haven't seen.
Speaker 4 (26:11):
In decades the United States. In the United States.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
Yes, yes, yes, no, as a result of these tariffs.
Although you know, Brian, I you know, we talked about
going back to the autopack. If we put a twenty
five thirty percent tariff on car imports into Canada, I
guarantee you there'd be investment because they'd have to you know,
(26:35):
GM would have to retool that Oshawa plant that hardly
makes anything anymore. I think it still makes the Silverado,
and it would have to start making you know, nine
ten different models that GM wants to sell in Canada
but can't supply from its US plants because of the tariffs.
But right now that's not happening, but it is happening
(26:57):
in spades in the US, whether it's the steel industry,
the aluminum industry, or the auto industry.
Speaker 2 (27:04):
Look, you're telling us that there's no way that you
can adapt, that it's going to cost billions of dollars
and take ten years to build a new steel plant
or aluminum plant or car plant or something like that.
How can you be right that Trump tariffs are bringing
jobs back to the United States.
Speaker 3 (27:19):
Just look at all the investment announcements that you're seeing
from from automakers, whether they're Japanese automakers or German automakers
in the US market, and you are seeing increases in
US productions as a lot of production has been moved
from from Canada to the US. Like, for example, the
(27:42):
Silverado that was being made in.
Speaker 4 (27:46):
Oshawa.
Speaker 3 (27:47):
Well they've just they've just added some new shifts in
the Fort Wayne, Indiana plant.
Speaker 4 (27:53):
So you are seeing production move to the US.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
So let me ask you a question. Let's let's take
a step back if we could. You know, if the
company had seventy five percent or eighty percent of its
business with one customer, any you know banker at CIBC
or BIMO or something like that would say you're over
reliant on one customer and I'm not going to take
a credit risk with you. We've had seventy five or
something percent of our trade with one customer and it's
(28:17):
now in jeopardy. Going back to nineteen eighty eight, you
know John Turner and Brian Malroney had this big debate
about free trade. It was the free trade election. John
Turner argued against step free trade and said that if
you give up your economic sovereignty, ultimately your political sovereignty
will be put at risk.
Speaker 3 (28:36):
Was he right?
Speaker 2 (28:37):
Was Brian o'roonney wrong? Was free trade a mistake because
we became too wedded, too dependent on US trade and
we took the easy way out for fifty years, where
we tristraded with someone a couple hundred miles south of US,
rather than doing the difficult job of creating economic opportunities
to grow our industries in Europe or in Asia.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
Well, it's always dangerous to judge people in a different
time context. There's no question that since the free trade
Agreement for the last forty years has seen the ever
increasing integration of the Canadian economy into the US economy.
(29:24):
And you know that speaks You mentioned geography earlier in
the show. Well, it's only natural that that occurred given
the geography. Now, was mulroney right? Was Turner right? I mean,
here's here's the thing. The US took one hundred and
eighty degree turn Okay, Donald Trump.
Speaker 4 (29:46):
Was the new normal.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
It's a very different normal than had existed for the
forty years since we signed that trade agreement up until
is his first presidency. So you know, things were going
not well for the auto industry, but as a whole,
(30:08):
for the Canadian economy, things were going quite well, you know,
in the sort of integrated globalist model with the US.
But then you know, the ball changed and I guess
in ways that were never imagined. I mean, don't forget that,
you know, going back to twenty sixteen, First of all,
(30:30):
the media said that Trump could never get the Republican nomination.
Then the media said didn't stand a chance against Hillary Clinton,
and then you know, the media said, oh, he wouldn't
get re elected, even though you know, he not only
got re elected but took the House and Senate as well.
So you know, this is a black Swan event or
(30:56):
whatever you want to call it. But this was not
anticipate by the mainstream.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
So some people are saying, let's just wait for the midterms,
or just let's wait for twenty twenty eight. What do
you think about that?
Speaker 3 (31:08):
Okay, well, let's wait for the midterms because the Democrats
aren't exactly hitting it out of the park, and this
shutdown that they've engineered isn't endearing them to a lot
of voters. At some point the Democrats will come back.
They need to find, you know, a new voice, like
(31:30):
a Bill Clinton type of guy coming out of the woodwork.
But you know, Trump has moved the needle. I mean,
look at the Republican Party. It's not sort of the
Maga wing of the Republican Party. The Maga wing is
of the Republican Party. And you know, he's changed the
(31:51):
way people think so that you know, whether he's succeeded
by the Vice president or Rubio or know whoever, of
his administration, I think is very much gonna uh going
to carry the day that you know, tariffs and protectionism
is the new normal, and you know, I think that
(32:13):
that's going to outlast Donald Trump. And we here in Canada,
you know, can't roll the dice, you know, listening to
CNN and you know how how the Democrats are going
to just you know, sweep in the in the midterms,
just like they were their other calls about Trump and
(32:34):
past elections.
Speaker 4 (32:35):
We can't roll the dice.
Speaker 3 (32:37):
Uh, you know, uh, we gotta we gotta find other options.
We got to lessen our dependency on the US economy. Uh,
Carney's right. I mean, it's not something that you can
do overnight. But you know, the big priority here should
not be appeasing Donald Trump. The big priority here is
(33:00):
should be repairing relations with China and India.
Speaker 2 (33:05):
Well, so Carnee was over in Asia recently. He met
with both the head of India as well as she
in China as well as South Korea and other places.
Isn't that the right strategy? It's too little, too.
Speaker 3 (33:19):
Late, don too little. It's a small step in the
right direction. But you know, like if you want to
talk about China, that that hundred percent electric car vehicle
tariff is still there and Canadian farmers are losing billions
of dollars in sales. So you know, I if I
(33:39):
would have hoped that, you know, Carnie would have come
to an agreement with She right then and there saying
we don't manufacture any electric vehicle anymore since the Ingersol
plant has been closed because of American tariffs, by the way,
so we're dropping that. But that's only you know, even
that is only a small step, because you know, we
(34:03):
got to get China to do for us what they
did for Russia. We got to like, you know, not
just maintain trade with China. We got to get China
buying everything that's being tariffed in the United States. I
mean they could if they were properly incented. And here
(34:24):
we got to get back to the whole geopolitical orbit.
You know, if we offer China a free trade agreement
and a foothold in North America, that would be a game.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Jan Jeff, do we have goods they want? You know,
I'm in business. I'm dealing with a company that flies
twice a week from China to Canada, stops in two
different airports filled with goods that people are buying, fast
fashion and other things. They then fill up with lobster
and fly back to China. The only thing that the
(34:57):
planes are flying back to China with is lobsters.
Speaker 3 (35:01):
Well they aren't anymore because China's put a huge terrify
on our lobsters in retaliation to the electric vehicle. But
China is a huge It's the world's largest consumer of resources,
and we, along with Russia, are you know, the world's
largest resource producer. Whether we're talking you know, oil and gas,
(35:26):
you know, whether we're talking uranium, you know, whether we're
talking grain, whether we're talking peas and lentils.
Speaker 4 (35:34):
You know, I think it's it's it's a very good fit.
Speaker 3 (35:39):
And uh and one that I think China would be
very willing to do. But you know, the Canadian public
isn't going to change their attitudes towards China and India,
which have been you know, constantly maligned in the Canadian media.
(35:59):
That's not going to change overnight. So I get back
to my question. Even if Carney was so inclined, and
I don't know if he is, but let's just assume
for the sake of argument that he is so inclined
to move in a Bricks direction, is there political support
(36:21):
for that in Canada among the electorate right now?
Speaker 2 (36:24):
In your book you talked about this new normal geopolitical
was one of them. What were some of the other
changes that you thought, well, we're happy that we needed
to adapt to.
Speaker 4 (36:35):
Well, I mean, there is a war going on.
Speaker 3 (36:38):
It's an economic war between Bricks and the United States.
And by the way, sanctions aren't a one way street,
They're a two way street. Because the US has been sanctioned,
It's currency has been sanctioned, and it's currency has been
sanctioned by some of the largest central banks in the world.
(37:03):
You know, you notice the US trade weighted. I mean,
they've they've gone up against Canada, but they've basically fallen.
And one of the reasons they've fallen is that there
has been massive selling of US dollars by brick central banks,
in particular the People's Bank of China. And it's one
(37:25):
of the factors underlying the strength of gold, because that's
become a substitute. And this was all sort of brought
brought on by the US itself because when they confiscated
some three hundred billion dollars of dollar assets held by
Russia Central Bank, what President Biden didn't realize was that
(37:49):
he was undermining one of the pillars that had made
the US dollar the reserve currency of the world, and
that was that, you know, it was view as an
insurance policy, a safe haven. Well, now all of a
sudden it could become a tick and time bomb because
at any point the White House could decide to confiscate
(38:12):
those dollar reserves and there's no way a central bank
could hedge that risk except not hold US dollars. I mean,
the same thing happened when they wouldn't allow Russia to
use the dollar for its natural gas and oil exports,
and Russia instead chose the ruble. Well, up until the
(38:33):
Ukrainian conflict, some ninety percent of oil and gas was
traded in US dollars. That's no longer the case. You know,
when the largest energy import or China, and the largest
oil export or Saudi Arabia are no longer conducting their
business and dollars.
Speaker 4 (38:55):
You know that's a change too.
Speaker 3 (38:56):
So you know, sanctions aren't just we just hear about
what we're imposing on Russia or China, but believe me,
it's a two way street.
Speaker 2 (39:07):
We're gonna take a break for some messages and come
back in just two minutes with Jeff Rubin talking about
how things have changed, what's the new normal? And he's
the author of a great new book, an author of
an op ed recently in the Gold mad that's really
challenged us to think about a map of the new
normal and where canad needs to go. Say, what's everyone
back into.
Speaker 1 (39:31):
No Radio, No Problem stream is live on SAGA ninety
six am.
Speaker 2 (39:36):
Dot C A welcome back everyone to the Brian Crombie
Radio or I've got economist an author Jeff Rubin with
us tonight. Jeff, what's the title of the book.
Speaker 3 (39:55):
Please, it's called a map of the new normal.
Speaker 2 (39:58):
And where can people get it?
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Any bookstore, Amazon, you know it's available.
Speaker 2 (40:04):
I appreciate, I appreciate you joining us today. I've got
to ask you if I could to go back to
your comments about the substantial investments in the budget and
given what you've described and the challenges that we've got,
and you know, Canada's been challenged economically before, was challenged
with people prior to confederation thinking that we should join
(40:26):
the United States, and Johnny MacDonald had the national you know,
railways that he talked about. We were challenged in the
eighteen nineties when McKinley, who Trump seems to emulate, talked
about Canada joining the United States and we ended up
having big infrastructure spending at that point in time. Don't
you think whether it's you know, the major projects office,
(40:50):
the pipelines that we're talking about, the liquid flied natural gas,
the investment in defense, et cetera, that are causing the
increase in the deficit. Aren't those smart things to do?
Speaker 3 (41:00):
Well, Let's talk about pipelines, because I think pipelines is
the equivalent of building the transcontinental Railway.
Speaker 4 (41:10):
In Sir John A.
Speaker 3 (41:12):
McDonald's time, it is the issue, probably the most important
issue for the Canadian economy. Mark Carney likes to talk
of Canada as an energy superpower, but and he'll cite
(41:32):
the fact that we have the third largest oil reserves
that maybe the fourth fifth largest natural gas reserves. But
it takes more than natural endowments to become an energy superpower.
It takes political will to develop those resources. Now, if
(41:54):
you look at countries that are legitimate energy superpowers, countries
like Saudi Arabia, countries like Russia, countries like the United States,
they have the political will to build the required infrastructure.
We have sadly lacked, and that's why we produce half
(42:18):
of what those countries produce in oil production, and what
we do produce have to accept a huge discount from
world prices because our oil is trapped.
Speaker 4 (42:32):
It's trapped into the.
Speaker 3 (42:34):
US market and the only way that we're going to
get out of that trap is by building pipelines to tidewater. Now,
you know, you notice in Carney's list of projects that
he's going to fast track, noticeably absent is such a pipeline.
(42:56):
And the reason for that is that in this country,
first nation groups and provinces have effective veto power over
new pipeline construction.
Speaker 4 (43:09):
And they haven't been shy about using it. That's going
to have to change, or.
Speaker 3 (43:18):
I think that we're going to see, you know, an
internal political challenge the likes of which we have not
seen since the Quebec referendum, because I think that we're
forcing Alberta into, you know, into a position that it
(43:40):
has not taken in the past, but may take in
the future.
Speaker 4 (43:44):
So Daniel Smith is right.
Speaker 3 (43:47):
It's if Daniel Smith does not advance the referendum, somebody
else will. Like nature politics abhors a vacuum, and from
Alberta's perspective, and you know, as a person who's lived
in Toronto all my life, I totally empathize with Alberta's perspective.
(44:10):
The lack of pipelines has frustrated the development of their
most important economic resource, if not the country's most important
economic resource, and that is the oil sands, and the
very provinces that have blocked that are the same provinces
(44:30):
that Alberta must support through equalization payments. I don't think
that's a sustainable arrangement going forward, particularly when you have
an expansionist US president in the White House. You know,
I don't know about Canada becoming the fifty first state,
(44:51):
but if the status quo doesn't change on pipelines, don't
rule out the prospect of Alberta becoming the fifty first
date because Trump's already on record as saying, you know,
he's in favor of bringing back the mothballed Keystone XL
pipeline that Biden counseled.
Speaker 2 (45:13):
Okay, so pipelines have got to be part of the
infrastructure expenditure. What about the balance of you know, people
are talking about critical minerals, they're talking about luquefied natural gas,
they're talking about lots of other developments, aren't those.
Speaker 3 (45:27):
Ll G is certainly something that we need to do
and have done, and there'll probably be an expansion in Kidamat.
But you know, the US have coined it by replacing
pipeline Russian gas with LNG exports from the Gulf to Europe.
(45:50):
Why can't we get involved in that? Well, we can't
get involved in that because we don't have a pipeline
that would take LLNG to the East coast. And again,
you know that remains something that lies outside of the doable.
But you know, failure to build the kind of infrastructure
(46:13):
that I'm talking about, makes, in my opinion, a mockery
of the claim that we're in energy superpower, because it
takes more than natural endowments to be an energy superpower.
Speaker 2 (46:28):
I can't let you go without asking about real estate.
You started by talking about the impact on your own
personal mortgage. Sixty percent of Canadian mortgages roll over in
the next eighteen months, supposedly.
Speaker 4 (46:39):
Right from record lows.
Speaker 3 (46:41):
I mean, my mortgage was one point ninety five. That
came doe because I, like many people locked in during
the pandemic. And as you mentioned, you know, sixty percent
of those mortgages are coming up, and they're not going
to be refinanced anywhere close to that. And I think
with the amount of government borrowing and its impact on
(47:04):
the bond market, that fixed term, fixed rate mortgages are
going to rise. So, Brian, that's not generally helpful for
the real estate market, and you know, I think it'll
continue to be, at least for the foreseeable future.
Speaker 4 (47:20):
Tough sledding.
Speaker 2 (47:21):
So you called the nineteen ninety crash in real estate
that hardly anyone else I was thinking about coming, and
you called it right we've had a decline in real
estate pricing in Canada. Is it going to be worse
or is it going to get better? Some people are
saying that the supply increases are so low, that building
starts are so low, that actually it's going to go
(47:43):
the opposite direction. In twenty twenty eight, twenty nine, what's
your sense of the real estate marketing cannabis.
Speaker 3 (47:48):
Well, but don't forget that that immigration was a huge
driver of real estate prices and that's changed. I you know,
I'm not particularly positive on the real estate market. I'm
not saying that we're going to have like a nineteen
ninety crash. As you pointed out, we've already seen, particularly
(48:09):
in the condo market places like Vancouver, in Toronto, you know,
significant declines. But I don't see I don't see the
budgets impact on bond yields being supportive of the real
estate market because I think it's going to have a
negative impact on fixed rate mortgages.
Speaker 2 (48:33):
So where do you put your money today?
Speaker 4 (48:36):
Well, you know, the stock market. The stock market's.
Speaker 3 (48:40):
Doings just fine, ironically, the Canadian market because of gold.
But you know, the S and P five hundred, the
Nasdaq is doing fine, and it's doing fine because the
one surprise is that we have not seen Maybe it's
(49:00):
too early, but we have not seen the big inflationary
fallout from Trump's tariffs. To be sure, inflation is no
longer two percent, it's you know, it's three percent and
it's probably going to stay there. But you know, people
were expecting, you know, huge increases in inflation from these tariffs,
(49:21):
assuming that the terriffs would just be passed on and
not eaten. And that's proven to be incorrect.
Speaker 4 (49:27):
So that's that's.
Speaker 3 (49:29):
You know, kept interest rates in check and that's I
think created a lot of blue sky for the stock markets.
Whether that continues to be the case, we'll see. It's
going to depend on inflation. And right now the big
mystery or anomaly is tariffs have not had the inflationary
(49:50):
impact that certainly their critics we're calling for.
Speaker 2 (49:54):
Jeff Ruben, thank you so much for joining us. I
really appreciate it.
Speaker 4 (49:57):
My pleasure.
Speaker 2 (49:58):
That's our show for tonight. Everybody, thank you for joining.
I highly recommend you follow Jeff Rubin, you buy his book.
He is one of the best thinkers in Canada at
someone who I've enjoyed following for a long period of time.
Jeff remind us the title.
Speaker 4 (50:12):
Of the book please a map of the New norm.
Speaker 2 (50:15):
And his op ed in The Little Mill from a
week or so ago is extremely well worth reading. That's
for shore for tonight. Thanks for joining us, everybody.
Speaker 1 (50:22):
Good night, no radio, no problem. Stream is live on
SAGA nine six am dot cl
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Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Are You A Charlotte?
In 1997, actress Kristin Davis’ life was forever changed when she took on the role of Charlotte York in Sex and the City. As we watched Carrie, Samantha, Miranda and Charlotte navigate relationships in NYC, the show helped push once unacceptable conversation topics out of the shadows and altered the narrative around women and sex. We all saw ourselves in them as they searched for fulfillment in life, sex and friendships. Now, Kristin Davis wants to connect with you, the fans, and share untold stories and all the behind the scenes. Together, with Kristin and special guests, what will begin with Sex and the City will evolve into talks about themes that are still so relevant today. "Are you a Charlotte?" is much more than just rewatching this beloved show, it brings the past and the present together as we talk with heart, humor and of course some optimism.
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