December 6, 2025 • 26 mins
In this episode of the Buckeye Weekly Podcast, hosts Tony Gerdeman and Tom Orr discuss the five matchups that will decide the Big Ten Championship between Ohio State and Indiana.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hello, everybody, Welcome to the Buckeye Weekly Podcast. I'm Tony
Gerdaman here as always with Tom or Tom.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
How's it going, Tony?
Speaker 3 (00:11):
I was just thinking about how incredibly unlikely this weekend's
game would have seemed just two years ago, because two
years ago, twenty twenty three, Ohio State opened the twenty
twenty three season on the road at Indiana, and everyone
kind of went, oh, well, if you had to open
on the road against a big ten team, this is
you know, this is exactly when you want to do
(00:31):
it againstcause it's close to home, and it's you know,
you know they're knowing not going to be any good,
and you know the coach is about to get fired,
and you know, boy, this is you know and they
in Ohio State won by twenty points, and everyone kind
of a boy, that was a really uninspiring.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Road win against Indiana.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
And here we are two years later, Tony and Ohio
State football still has more or less the same expectations Indiana,
Uh well, just just a little different than where things
were just a couple of years ago.
Speaker 1 (00:58):
A smidge different than the way things were a few
years back. Although we can go back to the twenty
seventeen season opener, when Indiana through four four hundred and
twenty yards against the Ohio State defense that we found
out that day was gonna be pretty questionable and hey,
maybe not the best defense in the world. If Indiana
forty two of sixty eight that day for four hundred
(01:20):
and twenty yards, If Fernando Mendoza and this game throws
sixty eight times, tom, is that good for Indiana or
is that bad for Indiana?
Speaker 2 (01:31):
Boy, that's a fantastic question.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
I would say that's probably outside of the fact that
you know, sixty eight plays in and of itself quite
a number of plays.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
That probably is you're.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Digging out of an enormous hole because they want to
run the ball, and if they're if it's close, they're
gonna want to run the ball. You know, if if
Fernando Mendoza throws fifty passes, that's that's probably very bad
for Indiana, I would think, because that means you're playing,
you know, you're playing to keep you know, keep the
pedal down, and you're playing to you know, in in
(02:08):
a game where presumably you need to keep up with someone,
you're not you're not throwing the ball. If you're up
four touchdowns probably probably, although Kurtz Signetti has done it before,
so but generally, generally, a lot of the games they've
won by a lot of points have been games where
they've run the ball really, really well, and they've had
a bunch of fifty yard runs. So I would I
would say that's probably you know, that's probably a lot
(02:31):
of long, extended drives for Indiana, and you're not you know,
you're not averaging seventeen yards of completion if you're throwing
it fifty times. If he'd averages fifty seventeen yard the
completion and throws it fifty times, I'm gonna change my
answer to that's a good thing for Indiana. But I'm
gonna say fifty fifty attempts or more for Indiana probably
not great for their likelihood of win.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Okay, all right, I mean that's that's fair, that's your opinion.
I we do not expect that in this one. Sixty
eight plays on offense is probably pushing it at this rate.
But we are here today to talk about the five
matchups that could will decide this game. And last week
when I started this against Michigan, when I started the show,
(03:12):
when we did the five matchups that we decided. The
Michigan game, I went with Matt Patricia versus Bryce Underwood.
Little did I know, Bryce Underwood was also talking the
same thing about it. It's going to be me versus
Matt Patricia. Did not go well for Bryce Underwood. Spoiler alert.
This week, I'm going to start with the same thing,
and it's Matt Patricia for me against Fernanda Mendoza. But
(03:36):
Fernanda Mendoza far from a true freshman quarterback. He's been
a multi year starter. This is going to be a
much different test for Matt Patricia and his defense, but
one that I think Matt Patricia is viewing this as
a higher level course as well. He's not going into
last week's game against Bryce Underwood thinking I need, you know, seven,
(04:00):
one hundred level astronomy basically to to try and fool
this guy. This week, though, he has to crank it
up a notch and be a little bit more deceptive
and effective and you know what are you dialing up?
Where is it coming from? So I think this matchup,
if Rinanda Mendoza can handle it, that's a really, really
(04:21):
good sign for Indiana's chances in this game.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Yeah, I think this is one where yeah, my patrist
is gonna have a lot of stuff that he has
not shown a ton of, and he's gonna be mixing
and matching coverages like crazy. Would be my expectation. I think,
if you know, I would expect a load of penny
front from from Ohio State against sort of a zone based,
largely zone based Indiana run game, which then you know,
(04:46):
then you can do all sorts of fun and creative
stuff behind that. If the if the front five can
really take care of the run game mostly by themselves,
then you can do all sorts of crazy stuff behind that.
And we've also seen you know, they'll show pressure with
all five of those guys and two of them will
back out, which two.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
I don't know what.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
It's an exciting mystery. We'll all find out together about
half a second after the snap. This is you know,
this is gonna be a much more balanced, uh you know,
balanced battle between these two guys where you know it's
a video game and uh you know, beating true freshman
Bryce Underwood that was level one. Okay, now now you're
you know, we've we've gone through the Little Tubes and
(05:25):
Super Mario and now we're now we're on level like
five and Bernando Mendoza. Things are going to be a
lot harder here in world world five to one against
uh uh against Fernando Mendoza, if if he can you know,
if Matt patricianan bait Fernando Mendoza into two turnovers, Ohio
State probably wins this game, you know, unless Ohio State
(05:47):
has a similarly disastrous run on offense. If the if
Ohio State can force a couple turnoffirs, they probably win
this game. If Ohio State can limit Indiana's run game,
they probably win this game.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
If Ohio State can just.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Sort of keep Indiana from being able to hit the
ball down, you know, hit those big shots downfield and
make them sort of work methodically down the field where
you got to. Okay, you can get a touchdown, but
you're gonna have to get five first downs before you
get down there. Can you win five separate sets of
three downs or four downs?
Speaker 2 (06:19):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
It'll be interesting to see, but you know, this is
gonna be much more of a fair fight between quarterback
and coordinator than we had last week. All right, so
we're gonna start Tony for me where it all begins
basically right where the football starts on every play.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
I got to talk about Caiden McDonald.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
Against sort of the interior of the Indiana defensive line.
McDonald has been a super, super impactful play player, and
we talked about him a bunch last week because Michigan
is running bunch of his own stuff, and if you
can get in and disrupt stuff in the backfield, that
completely blows up at his own based run scheme. And
there's a possibility that Cad McDonald might be able to
(06:59):
do that again. This Pat Coogan the center for Indiana,
former Notre Dame player. You saw him in the National
Championship game last year. He has been really solid. He's
been very.
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Good for Indiana this year. Brailynch the right guard.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
That's a guy that we've talked about a bunch this week,
and not necessarily always in glowing terms. That's a matchup
where if it ends up with Brailynch has to block
Caiden McDonald, I'm not sure that's a winning matchup for Indiana.
And if Kate McDonald's in the backfield, I'm not sure
that's so great for Indian His run game and if
Indiana's run game isn't great. I'm not sure that's so
great Brandy in his past game because it's so RPO heavy.
(07:34):
So I think, you know, you look at the past
game and it's like, well, Bernando Mendoza and Elijas Surat
be able to beat Jermaine Matthews is like, eh, I
think that question starts. You know, you got to rewind
the film about a second and a half to what
happened right after the ball was snapped at what and
Caiden McDonald do and where did he get? Because I
think that might be a matchup that goes a long
(07:55):
long way towards determining what happens on a play, even
if it's not a play where Caden McDonald ends up
on the stat sheet at all.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
And Cad McDonald is on the stat sheet quite a bit.
He is now tied for fourth on the team in
tackles with fifty two, tied with his childhood football teammate
Caleb Downs, All American Safety, the Big Ten Defensive Player
of the Year, Caleb Downs Caate McDonald, of course, the
Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year. Only Sunny Styles
(08:25):
and r Vl Reice have more assisted tackles than Caden
McDonald on this team, and he's one tackle away from
being tied for third on the team in tackles with
Kayden Curry, who is also having a fantastic season. I
think you're seeing Kate McDonald now pop up on mock drafts,
and yeah, he's going to have an advantage I think
(08:48):
every single time he's on the field for the rest
of the year, especially this one, where he can impact
the interior as much as he does, and he can
do it against the pass to rush where he's a
complete nose tackle. He can get into the backfield. Eight
tackles for loss on the season, and that's that's only
the ones where he landed. That's not the ones where
(09:09):
he pressured a quarterback or forced a running back into
the waiting arms of somebody like Kayden Curry. And I
guess we could just move to the next matchup, which
is we'll just group them all together the higher state
defensive ends Kayden Curry and Kenyatta Jackson against the Indiana
tackles and left tackle Carter Smith right tackle Khalil Benson,
(09:32):
which I think this is going to be Carter Smith's say,
the best, the best battle he's had since probably Oregon.
And you know by all counts that went pretty well
for him. We've talked a lot about Khalil Benson at
right tackle and how that's kind of the weak spot. That's,
(09:55):
as you said, I think one of the shows previously,
that's you'll see Cayd and Curry a lot on the
right side of that offensive line, and he's very effective.
He's very very effective against pass gainst Lebron. He is
a complete defender, as evidenced by his fifty three tackles
on the season, which are third on the team. And
(10:16):
then Kenyatta Jackson has just been turning it on more
and more as a pass rusher, as a and also
as a run defender. He had two tackles for loss
against Michigan. Right now, these two are coming along at
the exact perfect time. And I'm not even talking about
ar Bell Reese on the edge yet. We're just talking
about these two defensive ends against the two offensive tackles.
(10:37):
If if Carter Smith can't hold up, then boy, it's
gonna be a day where Fernando Mendoza is going to
make a lot of plays with his legs, which he
is also very capable of doing.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
Yeah, Mendoza is capable of making plays with his legs.
Mendoza also every once in a while will take sacks
that are like, you are way too experienced to be
taking that sack? Was who else that just got Wisconsin?
That just got him five times? I think in a game,
I mean, that's that you should not be taking five
sacks as a an experienced quarterback like that. And really
(11:11):
not a lot of the pressure has come from that
blind side. Carter Smith has has really in that We've
watched what four games now, five games now, and I
don't think I have written his name now once. And
generally when we're watching these games, you're only writing offensive
lineman down for bad reasons. So I don't think we've
really talked about him much, if at all this week.
So you know, I I look at Indiana tackles and
(11:33):
I think there's one that I feel like, Yeah, I
feel very good about his op you know, his potential
to stand up and have a pretty good game, and
the other side, like, well, Carter Smith though he's having
you know, I think I think they feel pretty good
about that side. If Ohio is it getting pressure off
the blind side, that's when you do have Fernando Mendoza
going uh oh, and because then it's on it's on
(11:53):
the blind side, and it's somewhere where he hasn't really
had to be looking for pressure before it's really he
hasn't had to deal pressure for the blindside for the
most part, generally has been coming from the right side,
which is the side he's generally facing as a right
handed quarterback.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
If you get something, if you get him from behind at.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
Some point, that's when, oh boy, that's going to start
speeding the clock up a little bit, because then then
you don't know, you might sort of be keeping you know,
your peripheral vision down on the right side of the line.
If you then have to worry about the left side
of the line too, that really impacts stuff. I'm not
expecting that. I think I'm expecting Carter Smith to hold
up pretty well in this one. But yeah, the right
(12:32):
right side of the offensive line again, monitor this space
another one where you know, we this is not a
sides of the field thing necessarily, So it's kind of
D'Angelo Pon's and Jamari Sharp and Navy Ryland Gandy, you know,
these outside corners for Indiana against Colonel Tate Jeremiah Smith.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
If those guys.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
Can hold up in one on one coverage, then that
would be enormous for Indiana. If those guys can hold
up in one on one coverage, they're going to go
about four rounds in the draft earlier than I expect
them to. So you know, that would be a real,
real big deal if they can sort of hold up
for uh, you know, for Indiana. But I suspect that
(13:15):
this is going to be Indiana's defense is going to
have to win up front. Indiana's defense is going to
have to win with the pass rush because I don't
think they have the luxury of keeping both safeties back
and playing you know, just just try and bracket both receivers,
and because then Ohio State probably is going to be
able to run the ball, and I don't you know,
if Ohiosta can run the ball, that's a big problem
(13:37):
for Indiana. So I think they're going to have to
try and.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Win those you know, one on one or at least
sort of one and a half on one or you've.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Got a safety on one side but not on the
other side, and you hope you kind of guess right,
But those matchups, if if Ohio States wide receivers dominate
those matchups.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
Indiana's offense is not gonna be able to score enough
points to win this game.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
So they've got to really kind of hold up and
at least try and play it to a stalemate for
at least a good chunk of the day.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
Right along with that, I would throw in nickel back
Devin Boykin when Jeremiah Smith or Carneal Tape motion into
the slot. What are they doing there? Because now, if
it's your nickel against one of those two guys, or
safety against one of those two guys, it's your third
or fourth or fifth best pass defender against one of
the two best receivers in the nation to one of
(14:27):
the let's say, two of the five best receivers in
the nation basically, so that's an advantage for Ohio State.
So they've got to be careful with those and try
to not let that happen however they can. I don't
know that they're gonna you can't. I don't think they're
gonna follow anybody necessarily, because you're gonna D'Angelo Pons's I
(14:50):
don't think he's just gonna go follow Jeremiah Smith. He's
your boundary corner. He's gonna stay there basically and do
his job. And I still go back to the the card.
Brandon Ennis or no, it was Jermaine Matthews has asked
who of the two receivers is more difficult to handle,
Jeremiah Smith or Carnell Tate. He said, well, but Jeremiah,
(15:11):
you're always gonna have safety help. So he said, Carnal
Tape is more difficult because that's the guy that's gonna
be you're gonna be one on one with. So, you know,
how do they handle that. I mean, the safeties didn't
do much against Michigan. You know, the Michigan safeties didn't
do much to limit the Ohio State offensive passing attack,
and they tried to play some zone in there. You
just use it against them and you draw some stuff
(15:34):
up there zone beaters as we've seen, and I'll be
interested to see how they handle the Ohio State receivers
in that slot.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Yeah, I think that's I think that's another interesting matchup
because even some of the some of the safeties that
we've seen in coverage for for Indiana over the course
of the season have not always been phenomenal. You know,
you'll have guys sort of get lost in space or
get just you know, not set with with you know
(16:05):
motion or sort of a you know, tempo and whatever
it is, like you can you know, Amari Ferrell number
one was the one who I think it was the
Oregon game, I remember which game it was where they
got him. They hit him, they just ran tempo and
he was like out of position and just got lost
in the backfield.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
And you know, he's he's had interceptions this year.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
So it's not like the ball skills are terrible, but
also if you can take advantage of that, that's that's
a really big deal. On the other side of the ball,
I think the matchup of Ohio States the offensive line,
and really in particular going up against Tyreek Tucker the
defensive tackle, he has ten tackles for loss. Going up
against Stephen Day the defensive tackle, he has eighteen tackles
(16:49):
for loss. He also has you know, he also will
be impactful. Just he had a tipped pass that led
to an interception at Oregon late in that game that
made that was a really really big play. If Ohio
State's offensive line could hold up against some of the
twists and the stunts that Indiana is going to be
showing up front, and they can give Julian say In time.
(17:09):
That's gonna put Ohio State in a tremendous position to
win this game, because you know all the stuff we
just said about the secondary, if the pass rush is
getting there, that completely you know that that can completely
change that negate some of that that advantage for Ohio State.
The pass rush isn't getting there, and especially if they're
bringing added guys and the pass rush isn't getting there,
that's when you run into big problems. And you know,
(17:32):
I wonder if like a little bit of a subset
of this is Elijah Hardy or you know, Isaiah Jones,
one of those guys from the Indiana Linebacker Corps against
like Bo Jackson or C. J. Donaldson in terms of, hey,
a linebacker's coming, can you can you throw your body
in front of him and not let him get to
(17:53):
Julian say In Because if the blitz pick up is
pretty good from Ohio State, that's another thing that you're
gonna You're gonna see press from Indiana. And Elijah Hardy
has a ton of I think he leads the team
in sacks actually this year.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
And we just saw.
Speaker 3 (18:06):
Isaiah Isaiah Jones have a sack. I think that was
the Oregon game. Had a really big sack in that game.
They're gonna bring those linebackers sometimes if you can pick
that up, that's where you have an opportunity to turn
what Indiana is thinking is, hey, this might be a
big negative play to get us off the field into Hey,
this Ohio State offense turns us into a big positive
(18:27):
play that also gets them off the field in a
you know, in a way that ends with kicking a pat.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
We've even seen Aiden Fisher lineup at edge at times
this year, but yeah, Relijah Hardy leads a team with
seven tackles or seven sacks. Isaiah Jones is third with five,
and an Aidan Fisher as two and a half. So
they are aggressive with those guys. I feel like up front,
Indiana definitely needs to win some of those one on
(18:54):
one matchups with the defensive line and the offensive line
and then try to get an advantage where they can
at the best of times for them to whether it's
a second down sack that turns into a third and
fifteen and you're like, well you've just saved the drive.
That sort of thing where it's well timed plays that
result in positive plays for Indiana's defense that make these
(19:19):
third downs much more difficult for Ohio State to pick up.
So it'll be interesting to see what they do on
second down to create issues on third down for the
Ohio State offense. How about Tom Igb versus Elijah Surrat.
Two physical guys. The Elijah Surat will line up on
either side of the the field and at wide receiver,
(19:39):
you'll be you know, whichever side doesn't doesn't just stick
with one side, So you know IGB will when he's
when this Surah is on the short side of field,
IGB will be there with him. Those are two physical guys,
both sticks to Both will push you push, you know,
shove and grab and do whatever they can to gain
an advantage.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
To a point.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
I know it's been a while since we've seen an
offensive pass interference call against the Ohio State defensive packs.
I don't know if we've seen one this year. We've
seen some seen a few defensive pass interference calls for
the Buckeyes of late. Some of those. I think that
one against Michigan and Andrew marsh was a It was
a bad call. It was just the ref didn't have
(20:21):
a great view of it, but also the ones where
we've seen IGB called he's he's grabbing the entire way
and he's running and he's you know, whether he's looking
back or not, he's just got his hands on the receiver.
And this is going to be an instance where big
ten refs know all about him and he's been relatively
clean this year. But this is a matchup between two big,
(20:41):
physical guys that I'm looking forward to seeing.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Yeah, I do wonder how much of Davis Snegmundsen's approach
this week is they can't call them all, and you know,
I mean they really they tried last year. They did
their very best to call them all last year.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
He has gotten that cleaned up a lot.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
He went from what fifteen or sixteen penalties last year
to like five this year, so he is he has
gotten substantially better, and I think he's sort of outgrown
that reputation to at least some degree with officials.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
But yeah, that's that's gonna be a really really intriguing one.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
And some of that is going to be based on
what can Indiana do in the run game, you know,
because so much of their offense is arepo based, and
if they're not running the ball, then Ohio State can
just kind of go shrug their shoulders and go, okay,
go ahead, you know, run it if you want to,
but you can't run it, so we know you're gonna
throw it, and that then opens up a bunch of
stuff where it's not This is not obviously going to
(21:33):
be just purely.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
Mono imano all day long, all night long.
Speaker 3 (21:37):
But yeah, when those two were matched up against each other, yeah,
that's going to be a very physical You will have
some grabbing and shoving and stuff, I'm sure after plays,
because these are two guys who are both you know,
pretty big, pretty physical guys who are used to used
to sort of getting their way. So I would expect
to expect that to be a physical and.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
Very very entertaining matchup. Do you have any more? I
think we have.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
We hit five, So there's some of the key matchups
that will go into deciding this game. Tom, let's go
ahead and throw our score predictions out there. I am
going with Ohio State thirty one twenty. I as I've
done maybe like the last six or seven weeks. I
(22:22):
take a touchdown off the board for Ohio State and
then then it looks boy boy, that looks a little
too close, But I think the way Indiana runs the
way Ohio State will stop the run and force Indiana
to find other ways to score. I think twenty is
about the upper limit of points I'm willing to give
an opponent at this point. Even thoughing this is the
(22:43):
best offense Ohio State has seen all season long, and
in terms of the defense like Ohio States, in terms
of Indiana's defense, Ohio State, I still feel like can
move the ball enough, can throw the ball enough, and
we'll hit a couple of home runs that will always
bully them against their opponent.
Speaker 3 (22:58):
Yeah, this is one where if both teams play there
B plus game, Ohio State wins. At both teams play
there a minus game, Ohio State wins. If both teams
play their c minus game, Ohio State wins. You know,
it just kind of Indiana really has to kind of
out play Ohio State, and it's certainly possible that they will.
This is probably you know, this is a big game
for Ohio State, it's a bigger game for Indiana, and
Indiana is going to have a probably significantly pro Indiana
(23:21):
crowd in the building. So there's a lot of little
stuff that sort of is going to be going in
their favor. I went twenty seven to seventeen Ohio State,
and you know, I know this. There was another Caleb
down podcast this week where I think his brother picked
the opponent to score seventeen points and he kind of
gave him side eye, which is what exactly what he
did last week when his brother picked in Michigan, I
(23:41):
think to score seventeen, and obviously Michigan scored nine. This
is this is the best offense Ohio State has faced,
I think by far this year, and no one has
scored seventeen against Ohio State.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
So I think Indiana Penans are gonna go only seventeen points.
It's again, no one has done that yet this year.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
So that's not you know, that is not a shade
again Indiana. It just feels like this is a game
where Ohio State's gonna just be a little bit better
in several areas where it just sort of adds up
and it's not gonna be This is not gonna be
a game that is over at halftime. This is probably
not gonna be a game that's over at this end
of the third quarter. But it's gonna be a game
(24:17):
where I'm expecting Ohio State to just sort of just
be able to keep Indiana at arms reach just long enough,
and you know, you have you have one more interception
from Brenanda Mendoza and maybe Ohio State went by seventeen.
You have one more interception by Julian Saying, and maybe
this is a three point game late. But you know,
it feels like, just on a pure talent basis, Ohio
(24:40):
State is probably about a touchdown or a little.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
More than that better than Indiana.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
And I know the advanced stat metrics don't have it,
you know, they have it a lot closer than that.
Indiana just you know, Indiana has been perfectly willing to
keep the pedal down as long as possible and run
up some real, real impressive stats, and Ohio State has
just sort of Ohio State has just done what has
sort of been necessary to win by three touchdowns every week.
(25:06):
And I think that sort of skews those a little bit.
But you know, in a in a matchup where Ohio
State does need to do a little more, I think
Ohio State has to quote Brian d A has a
little more nitrous in that in that tank.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
Yeah, Ohio State's not trying to win the county fair
with the guard and they're just trying to feed the family.
That's all. So that will do it from here. If
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(25:41):
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Hello, everybody, Welcome to the Buckeye Weekly Podcast. I'm Tony
Gerdaman here as always with Tom or Tom.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
How's it going, Tony?
Speaker 3 (00:11):
I was just thinking about how incredibly unlikely this weekend's
game would have seemed just two years ago, because two
years ago, twenty twenty three, Ohio State opened the twenty
twenty three season on the road at Indiana, and everyone
kind of went, oh, well, if you had to open
on the road against a big ten team, this is
you know, this is exactly when you want to do
(00:31):
it againstcause it's close to home, and it's you know,
you know they're knowing not going to be any good,
and you know the coach is about to get fired,
and you know, boy, this is you know and they
in Ohio State won by twenty points, and everyone kind
of a boy, that was a really uninspiring.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Road win against Indiana.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
And here we are two years later, Tony and Ohio
State football still has more or less the same expectations Indiana,
Uh well, just just a little different than where things
were just a couple of years ago.
Speaker 1 (00:58):
A smidge different than the way things were a few
years back. Although we can go back to the twenty
seventeen season opener, when Indiana through four four hundred and
twenty yards against the Ohio State defense that we found
out that day was gonna be pretty questionable and hey,
maybe not the best defense in the world. If Indiana
forty two of sixty eight that day for four hundred
(01:20):
and twenty yards, If Fernando Mendoza and this game throws
sixty eight times, tom, is that good for Indiana or
is that bad for Indiana?
Speaker 2 (01:31):
Boy, that's a fantastic question.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
I would say that's probably outside of the fact that
you know, sixty eight plays in and of itself quite
a number of plays.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
That probably is you're.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Digging out of an enormous hole because they want to
run the ball, and if they're if it's close, they're
gonna want to run the ball. You know, if if
Fernando Mendoza throws fifty passes, that's that's probably very bad
for Indiana, I would think, because that means you're playing,
you know, you're playing to keep you know, keep the
pedal down, and you're playing to you know, in in
(02:08):
a game where presumably you need to keep up with someone,
you're not you're not throwing the ball. If you're up
four touchdowns probably probably, although Kurtz Signetti has done it before,
so but generally, generally, a lot of the games they've
won by a lot of points have been games where
they've run the ball really, really well, and they've had
a bunch of fifty yard runs. So I would I
would say that's probably you know, that's probably a lot
(02:31):
of long, extended drives for Indiana, and you're not you know,
you're not averaging seventeen yards of completion if you're throwing
it fifty times. If he'd averages fifty seventeen yard the
completion and throws it fifty times, I'm gonna change my
answer to that's a good thing for Indiana. But I'm
gonna say fifty fifty attempts or more for Indiana probably
not great for their likelihood of win.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Okay, all right, I mean that's that's fair, that's your opinion.
I we do not expect that in this one. Sixty
eight plays on offense is probably pushing it at this rate.
But we are here today to talk about the five
matchups that could will decide this game. And last week
when I started this against Michigan, when I started the show,
(03:12):
when we did the five matchups that we decided. The
Michigan game, I went with Matt Patricia versus Bryce Underwood.
Little did I know, Bryce Underwood was also talking the
same thing about it. It's going to be me versus
Matt Patricia. Did not go well for Bryce Underwood. Spoiler alert.
This week, I'm going to start with the same thing,
and it's Matt Patricia for me against Fernanda Mendoza. But
(03:36):
Fernanda Mendoza far from a true freshman quarterback. He's been
a multi year starter. This is going to be a
much different test for Matt Patricia and his defense, but
one that I think Matt Patricia is viewing this as
a higher level course as well. He's not going into
last week's game against Bryce Underwood thinking I need, you know, seven,
(04:00):
one hundred level astronomy basically to to try and fool
this guy. This week, though, he has to crank it
up a notch and be a little bit more deceptive
and effective and you know what are you dialing up?
Where is it coming from? So I think this matchup,
if Rinanda Mendoza can handle it, that's a really, really
(04:21):
good sign for Indiana's chances in this game.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Yeah, I think this is one where yeah, my patrist
is gonna have a lot of stuff that he has
not shown a ton of, and he's gonna be mixing
and matching coverages like crazy. Would be my expectation. I think,
if you know, I would expect a load of penny
front from from Ohio State against sort of a zone based,
largely zone based Indiana run game, which then you know,
(04:46):
then you can do all sorts of fun and creative
stuff behind that. If the if the front five can
really take care of the run game mostly by themselves,
then you can do all sorts of crazy stuff behind that.
And we've also seen you know, they'll show pressure with
all five of those guys and two of them will
back out, which two.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
I don't know what.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
It's an exciting mystery. We'll all find out together about
half a second after the snap. This is you know,
this is gonna be a much more balanced, uh you know,
balanced battle between these two guys where you know it's
a video game and uh you know, beating true freshman
Bryce Underwood that was level one. Okay, now now you're
you know, we've we've gone through the Little Tubes and
(05:25):
Super Mario and now we're now we're on level like
five and Bernando Mendoza. Things are going to be a
lot harder here in world world five to one against
uh uh against Fernando Mendoza, if if he can you know,
if Matt patricianan bait Fernando Mendoza into two turnovers, Ohio
State probably wins this game, you know, unless Ohio State
(05:47):
has a similarly disastrous run on offense. If the if
Ohio State can force a couple turnoffirs, they probably win
this game. If Ohio State can limit Indiana's run game,
they probably win this game.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
If Ohio State can just.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Sort of keep Indiana from being able to hit the
ball down, you know, hit those big shots downfield and
make them sort of work methodically down the field where
you got to. Okay, you can get a touchdown, but
you're gonna have to get five first downs before you
get down there. Can you win five separate sets of
three downs or four downs?
Speaker 2 (06:19):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
It'll be interesting to see, but you know, this is
gonna be much more of a fair fight between quarterback
and coordinator than we had last week. All right, so
we're gonna start Tony for me where it all begins
basically right where the football starts on every play.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
I got to talk about Caiden McDonald.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
Against sort of the interior of the Indiana defensive line.
McDonald has been a super, super impactful play player, and
we talked about him a bunch last week because Michigan
is running bunch of his own stuff, and if you
can get in and disrupt stuff in the backfield, that
completely blows up at his own based run scheme. And
there's a possibility that Cad McDonald might be able to
(06:59):
do that again. This Pat Coogan the center for Indiana,
former Notre Dame player. You saw him in the National
Championship game last year. He has been really solid. He's
been very.
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Good for Indiana this year. Brailynch the right guard.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
That's a guy that we've talked about a bunch this week,
and not necessarily always in glowing terms. That's a matchup
where if it ends up with Brailynch has to block
Caiden McDonald, I'm not sure that's a winning matchup for Indiana.
And if Kate McDonald's in the backfield, I'm not sure
that's so great for Indian His run game and if
Indiana's run game isn't great. I'm not sure that's so
great Brandy in his past game because it's so RPO heavy.
(07:34):
So I think, you know, you look at the past
game and it's like, well, Bernando Mendoza and Elijas Surat
be able to beat Jermaine Matthews is like, eh, I
think that question starts. You know, you got to rewind
the film about a second and a half to what
happened right after the ball was snapped at what and
Caiden McDonald do and where did he get? Because I
think that might be a matchup that goes a long
(07:55):
long way towards determining what happens on a play, even
if it's not a play where Caden McDonald ends up
on the stat sheet at all.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
And Cad McDonald is on the stat sheet quite a bit.
He is now tied for fourth on the team in
tackles with fifty two, tied with his childhood football teammate
Caleb Downs, All American Safety, the Big Ten Defensive Player
of the Year, Caleb Downs Caate McDonald, of course, the
Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year. Only Sunny Styles
(08:25):
and r Vl Reice have more assisted tackles than Caden
McDonald on this team, and he's one tackle away from
being tied for third on the team in tackles with
Kayden Curry, who is also having a fantastic season. I
think you're seeing Kate McDonald now pop up on mock drafts,
and yeah, he's going to have an advantage I think
(08:48):
every single time he's on the field for the rest
of the year, especially this one, where he can impact
the interior as much as he does, and he can
do it against the pass to rush where he's a
complete nose tackle. He can get into the backfield. Eight
tackles for loss on the season, and that's that's only
the ones where he landed. That's not the ones where
(09:09):
he pressured a quarterback or forced a running back into
the waiting arms of somebody like Kayden Curry. And I
guess we could just move to the next matchup, which
is we'll just group them all together the higher state
defensive ends Kayden Curry and Kenyatta Jackson against the Indiana
tackles and left tackle Carter Smith right tackle Khalil Benson,
(09:32):
which I think this is going to be Carter Smith's say,
the best, the best battle he's had since probably Oregon.
And you know by all counts that went pretty well
for him. We've talked a lot about Khalil Benson at
right tackle and how that's kind of the weak spot. That's,
(09:55):
as you said, I think one of the shows previously,
that's you'll see Cayd and Curry a lot on the
right side of that offensive line, and he's very effective.
He's very very effective against pass gainst Lebron. He is
a complete defender, as evidenced by his fifty three tackles
on the season, which are third on the team. And
(10:16):
then Kenyatta Jackson has just been turning it on more
and more as a pass rusher, as a and also
as a run defender. He had two tackles for loss
against Michigan. Right now, these two are coming along at
the exact perfect time. And I'm not even talking about
ar Bell Reese on the edge yet. We're just talking
about these two defensive ends against the two offensive tackles.
(10:37):
If if Carter Smith can't hold up, then boy, it's
gonna be a day where Fernando Mendoza is going to
make a lot of plays with his legs, which he
is also very capable of doing.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
Yeah, Mendoza is capable of making plays with his legs.
Mendoza also every once in a while will take sacks
that are like, you are way too experienced to be
taking that sack? Was who else that just got Wisconsin?
That just got him five times? I think in a game,
I mean, that's that you should not be taking five
sacks as a an experienced quarterback like that. And really
(11:11):
not a lot of the pressure has come from that
blind side. Carter Smith has has really in that We've
watched what four games now, five games now, and I
don't think I have written his name now once. And
generally when we're watching these games, you're only writing offensive
lineman down for bad reasons. So I don't think we've
really talked about him much, if at all this week.
So you know, I I look at Indiana tackles and
(11:33):
I think there's one that I feel like, Yeah, I
feel very good about his op you know, his potential
to stand up and have a pretty good game, and
the other side, like, well, Carter Smith though he's having
you know, I think I think they feel pretty good
about that side. If Ohio is it getting pressure off
the blind side, that's when you do have Fernando Mendoza
going uh oh, and because then it's on it's on
(11:53):
the blind side, and it's somewhere where he hasn't really
had to be looking for pressure before it's really he
hasn't had to deal pressure for the blindside for the
most part, generally has been coming from the right side,
which is the side he's generally facing as a right
handed quarterback.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
If you get something, if you get him from behind at.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
Some point, that's when, oh boy, that's going to start
speeding the clock up a little bit, because then then
you don't know, you might sort of be keeping you know,
your peripheral vision down on the right side of the line.
If you then have to worry about the left side
of the line too, that really impacts stuff. I'm not
expecting that. I think I'm expecting Carter Smith to hold
up pretty well in this one. But yeah, the right
(12:32):
right side of the offensive line again, monitor this space
another one where you know, we this is not a
sides of the field thing necessarily, So it's kind of
D'Angelo Pon's and Jamari Sharp and Navy Ryland Gandy, you know,
these outside corners for Indiana against Colonel Tate Jeremiah Smith.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
If those guys.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
Can hold up in one on one coverage, then that
would be enormous for Indiana. If those guys can hold
up in one on one coverage, they're going to go
about four rounds in the draft earlier than I expect
them to. So you know, that would be a real,
real big deal if they can sort of hold up
for uh, you know, for Indiana. But I suspect that
(13:15):
this is going to be Indiana's defense is going to
have to win up front. Indiana's defense is going to
have to win with the pass rush because I don't
think they have the luxury of keeping both safeties back
and playing you know, just just try and bracket both receivers,
and because then Ohio State probably is going to be
able to run the ball, and I don't you know,
if Ohiosta can run the ball, that's a big problem
(13:37):
for Indiana. So I think they're going to have to
try and.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Win those you know, one on one or at least
sort of one and a half on one or you've.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
Got a safety on one side but not on the
other side, and you hope you kind of guess right,
But those matchups, if if Ohio States wide receivers dominate
those matchups.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
Indiana's offense is not gonna be able to score enough
points to win this game.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
So they've got to really kind of hold up and
at least try and play it to a stalemate for
at least a good chunk of the day.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
Right along with that, I would throw in nickel back
Devin Boykin when Jeremiah Smith or Carneal Tape motion into
the slot. What are they doing there? Because now, if
it's your nickel against one of those two guys, or
safety against one of those two guys, it's your third
or fourth or fifth best pass defender against one of
the two best receivers in the nation to one of
(14:27):
the let's say, two of the five best receivers in
the nation basically, so that's an advantage for Ohio State.
So they've got to be careful with those and try
to not let that happen however they can. I don't
know that they're gonna you can't. I don't think they're
gonna follow anybody necessarily, because you're gonna D'Angelo Pons's I
(14:50):
don't think he's just gonna go follow Jeremiah Smith. He's
your boundary corner. He's gonna stay there basically and do
his job. And I still go back to the the card.
Brandon Ennis or no, it was Jermaine Matthews has asked
who of the two receivers is more difficult to handle,
Jeremiah Smith or Carnell Tate. He said, well, but Jeremiah,
(15:11):
you're always gonna have safety help. So he said, Carnal
Tape is more difficult because that's the guy that's gonna
be you're gonna be one on one with. So, you know,
how do they handle that. I mean, the safeties didn't
do much against Michigan. You know, the Michigan safeties didn't
do much to limit the Ohio State offensive passing attack,
and they tried to play some zone in there. You
just use it against them and you draw some stuff
(15:34):
up there zone beaters as we've seen, and I'll be
interested to see how they handle the Ohio State receivers
in that slot.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Yeah, I think that's I think that's another interesting matchup
because even some of the some of the safeties that
we've seen in coverage for for Indiana over the course
of the season have not always been phenomenal. You know,
you'll have guys sort of get lost in space or
get just you know, not set with with you know
(16:05):
motion or sort of a you know, tempo and whatever
it is, like you can you know, Amari Ferrell number
one was the one who I think it was the
Oregon game, I remember which game it was where they
got him. They hit him, they just ran tempo and
he was like out of position and just got lost
in the backfield.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
And you know, he's he's had interceptions this year.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
So it's not like the ball skills are terrible, but
also if you can take advantage of that, that's that's
a really big deal. On the other side of the ball,
I think the matchup of Ohio States the offensive line,
and really in particular going up against Tyreek Tucker the
defensive tackle, he has ten tackles for loss. Going up
against Stephen Day the defensive tackle, he has eighteen tackles
(16:49):
for loss. He also has you know, he also will
be impactful. Just he had a tipped pass that led
to an interception at Oregon late in that game that
made that was a really really big play. If Ohio
State's offensive line could hold up against some of the
twists and the stunts that Indiana is going to be
showing up front, and they can give Julian say In time.
(17:09):
That's gonna put Ohio State in a tremendous position to
win this game, because you know all the stuff we
just said about the secondary, if the pass rush is
getting there, that completely you know that that can completely
change that negate some of that that advantage for Ohio State.
The pass rush isn't getting there, and especially if they're
bringing added guys and the pass rush isn't getting there,
that's when you run into big problems. And you know,
(17:32):
I wonder if like a little bit of a subset
of this is Elijah Hardy or you know, Isaiah Jones,
one of those guys from the Indiana Linebacker Corps against
like Bo Jackson or C. J. Donaldson in terms of, hey,
a linebacker's coming, can you can you throw your body
in front of him and not let him get to
(17:53):
Julian say In Because if the blitz pick up is
pretty good from Ohio State, that's another thing that you're
gonna You're gonna see press from Indiana. And Elijah Hardy
has a ton of I think he leads the team
in sacks actually this year.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
And we just saw.
Speaker 3 (18:06):
Isaiah Isaiah Jones have a sack. I think that was
the Oregon game. Had a really big sack in that game.
They're gonna bring those linebackers sometimes if you can pick
that up, that's where you have an opportunity to turn
what Indiana is thinking is, hey, this might be a
big negative play to get us off the field into Hey,
this Ohio State offense turns us into a big positive
(18:27):
play that also gets them off the field in a
you know, in a way that ends with kicking a pat.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
We've even seen Aiden Fisher lineup at edge at times
this year, but yeah, Relijah Hardy leads a team with
seven tackles or seven sacks. Isaiah Jones is third with five,
and an Aidan Fisher as two and a half. So
they are aggressive with those guys. I feel like up front,
Indiana definitely needs to win some of those one on
(18:54):
one matchups with the defensive line and the offensive line
and then try to get an advantage where they can
at the best of times for them to whether it's
a second down sack that turns into a third and
fifteen and you're like, well you've just saved the drive.
That sort of thing where it's well timed plays that
result in positive plays for Indiana's defense that make these
(19:19):
third downs much more difficult for Ohio State to pick up.
So it'll be interesting to see what they do on
second down to create issues on third down for the
Ohio State offense. How about Tom Igb versus Elijah Surrat.
Two physical guys. The Elijah Surat will line up on
either side of the the field and at wide receiver,
(19:39):
you'll be you know, whichever side doesn't doesn't just stick
with one side, So you know IGB will when he's
when this Surah is on the short side of field,
IGB will be there with him. Those are two physical guys,
both sticks to Both will push you push, you know,
shove and grab and do whatever they can to gain
an advantage.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
To a point.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
I know it's been a while since we've seen an
offensive pass interference call against the Ohio State defensive packs.
I don't know if we've seen one this year. We've
seen some seen a few defensive pass interference calls for
the Buckeyes of late. Some of those. I think that
one against Michigan and Andrew marsh was a It was
a bad call. It was just the ref didn't have
(20:21):
a great view of it, but also the ones where
we've seen IGB called he's he's grabbing the entire way
and he's running and he's you know, whether he's looking
back or not, he's just got his hands on the receiver.
And this is going to be an instance where big
ten refs know all about him and he's been relatively
clean this year. But this is a matchup between two big,
(20:41):
physical guys that I'm looking forward to seeing.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Yeah, I do wonder how much of Davis Snegmundsen's approach
this week is they can't call them all, and you know,
I mean they really they tried last year. They did
their very best to call them all last year.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
He has gotten that cleaned up a lot.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
He went from what fifteen or sixteen penalties last year
to like five this year, so he is he has
gotten substantially better, and I think he's sort of outgrown
that reputation to at least some degree with officials.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
But yeah, that's that's gonna be a really really intriguing one.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
And some of that is going to be based on
what can Indiana do in the run game, you know,
because so much of their offense is arepo based, and
if they're not running the ball, then Ohio State can
just kind of go shrug their shoulders and go, okay,
go ahead, you know, run it if you want to,
but you can't run it, so we know you're gonna
throw it, and that then opens up a bunch of
stuff where it's not This is not obviously going to
(21:33):
be just purely.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
Mono imano all day long, all night long.
Speaker 3 (21:37):
But yeah, when those two were matched up against each other, yeah,
that's going to be a very physical You will have
some grabbing and shoving and stuff, I'm sure after plays,
because these are two guys who are both you know,
pretty big, pretty physical guys who are used to used
to sort of getting their way. So I would expect
to expect that to be a physical and.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
Very very entertaining matchup. Do you have any more? I
think we have.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
We hit five, So there's some of the key matchups
that will go into deciding this game. Tom, let's go
ahead and throw our score predictions out there. I am
going with Ohio State thirty one twenty. I as I've
done maybe like the last six or seven weeks. I
(22:22):
take a touchdown off the board for Ohio State and
then then it looks boy boy, that looks a little
too close, But I think the way Indiana runs the
way Ohio State will stop the run and force Indiana
to find other ways to score. I think twenty is
about the upper limit of points I'm willing to give
an opponent at this point. Even thoughing this is the
(22:43):
best offense Ohio State has seen all season long, and
in terms of the defense like Ohio States, in terms
of Indiana's defense, Ohio State, I still feel like can
move the ball enough, can throw the ball enough, and
we'll hit a couple of home runs that will always
bully them against their opponent.
Speaker 3 (22:58):
Yeah, this is one where if both teams play there
B plus game, Ohio State wins. At both teams play
there a minus game, Ohio State wins. If both teams
play their c minus game, Ohio State wins. You know,
it just kind of Indiana really has to kind of
out play Ohio State, and it's certainly possible that they will.
This is probably you know, this is a big game
for Ohio State, it's a bigger game for Indiana, and
Indiana is going to have a probably significantly pro Indiana
(23:21):
crowd in the building. So there's a lot of little
stuff that sort of is going to be going in
their favor. I went twenty seven to seventeen Ohio State,
and you know, I know this. There was another Caleb
down podcast this week where I think his brother picked
the opponent to score seventeen points and he kind of
gave him side eye, which is what exactly what he
did last week when his brother picked in Michigan, I
(23:41):
think to score seventeen, and obviously Michigan scored nine. This
is this is the best offense Ohio State has faced,
I think by far this year, and no one has
scored seventeen against Ohio State.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
So I think Indiana Penans are gonna go only seventeen points.
It's again, no one has done that yet this year.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
So that's not you know, that is not a shade
again Indiana. It just feels like this is a game
where Ohio State's gonna just be a little bit better
in several areas where it just sort of adds up
and it's not gonna be This is not gonna be
a game that is over at halftime. This is probably
not gonna be a game that's over at this end
of the third quarter. But it's gonna be a game
(24:17):
where I'm expecting Ohio State to just sort of just
be able to keep Indiana at arms reach just long enough,
and you know, you have you have one more interception
from Brenanda Mendoza and maybe Ohio State went by seventeen.
You have one more interception by Julian Saying, and maybe
this is a three point game late. But you know,
it feels like, just on a pure talent basis, Ohio
(24:40):
State is probably about a touchdown or a little.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
More than that better than Indiana.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
And I know the advanced stat metrics don't have it,
you know, they have it a lot closer than that.
Indiana just you know, Indiana has been perfectly willing to
keep the pedal down as long as possible and run
up some real, real impressive stats, and Ohio State has
just sort of Ohio State has just done what has
sort of been necessary to win by three touchdowns every week.
(25:06):
And I think that sort of skews those a little bit.
But you know, in a in a matchup where Ohio
State does need to do a little more, I think
Ohio State has to quote Brian d A has a
little more nitrous in that in that tank.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
Yeah, Ohio State's not trying to win the county fair
with the guard and they're just trying to feed the family.
That's all. So that will do it from here. If
you would go ahead, and if you're watching on YouTube,
we'd appreciate the thumbs up, subscribe to the channel hit
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have of course a long live show for all of
(25:41):
your listening and viewing pleasure and needs. And of course
if you do just listen, go ahead at the five
star writing review on all of your podcast platforms of choice,
and you can continue to find us at the Buckeye
Weekly Podcast now at buckeyehuddle dot com. So listen, sign up,
sale to us there on the Buckeye a message board
presented by Jeffrey Viy's Columbus. Would love to see you there,
(26:04):
So thank you all for tuning in and we'll talk
to you all later
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