January 13, 2026 • 8 mins
David Frame of Craigs IP looks at what to expect over the next twelve months in the financial world from a southern viewpoint.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
The Muster Financial Segment with Craig's Investment Partners in Gore.
This information is general in nature and it's not financial advice.
Craig's Investment Partners Limited financial Advice provider disclosure statement can
be found at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Good morning, David Frame of Craig's Investment Partners joins us
for the first time in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
God, a happy new Year, Andy, Happy New Year.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Any resolutions that you've made that you've managed to break
so far?
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Yeah, losing weight which hasn't worked.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Are we going to do a bit of a review
of last year as well, Dave, and think about we'll
actually look at what happened as for as stock markers,
interest rates. I mean, you look at anything and everything,
especially from a Southern lens regarding financials, how would you
rank it?
Speaker 3 (00:50):
I think it was a good year overall. Now the
headlines didn't necessarily reflect that, but farming community seem a
lot better. We've got some good prices there. I think
town's coming along a lot better than it was twelve
months ago. Yeah, I'm pretty positive about the future.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Positive being the key word there, and there's a lot
of positivity around at the moment, seeing the way that
red meat prices are staying up. There was a correction
in the GDT last week. He came up and leaps
and bounds after. I think it may have been eight declines,
so we may see. It'll be interesting what happens with
the next one term.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
I suppose, yeah, And a lot of that's volume related
and depending on the time of year, so it bounces around.
Be nice to see the trend reverse and get the
milk price maybe a bit more stable and a bit
more towards ten bucks.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
So what was a big thing that stuck out for
you from last year's markets?
Speaker 3 (01:40):
I think the wealthy economy started rebounding really well after
the whole COVID sort of debacle. Because we had cheap
money in twenty twenty twenty one, people spend a lot
of money. Inflation shot through the roof, and then interest
rates shot through the roof. People lost confidence where last
interest rates came down. So we saw world markets going
(02:04):
up sort of around twenty percent. Some areas like Europe
went up twenty five percent. So we saw investment returns
for sort of balanced investors of maybe eight to ten
percent for the year, which is good really good.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Interesting the way the Kiwi dollar has been bouncing around.
Speaker 3 (02:20):
Yeah, and it's looking pretty sad at the moment. It's
the lowest I've seen against the Aussie for ages. I'm
heading overseas for a holiday in a few months time
and I won't be getting as much for my buck.
So a lot of people think we should rebound because
our economy is rebounding. So we'll have to see how
it goes through the year. But it's certainly in a
(02:41):
sad spot right now.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah, eighty six cents not that long ago. It was
in the nineties.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
Yeah, I think it was sort of mid nineties, maybe
halfway through last year. The only positive from that is
that the exporters should be able to sell their goods
for more than Kiwi dollars.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
There's always a silver lining to something. That was the
one thing I was going to say that sport prices
at the moment are good and this would be the driver.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Yes, Yeah, which is good. We need that sort of
tailwind when the domestic economy is suffering a bit.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Yes, So we look at the year that's ahead of
us interest rates and the likes, what are we going
to get?
Speaker 3 (03:15):
Well, I believe interest rates might have bottomed out, so
we'll have to see how the economy goes. But the
Reserve Bank seems to think they've done most of the work.
Not too sure if they'll head up again by the
end of the year. But if the economy starts cranking
again and it's taking a while, then we might see
(03:36):
rates start tracking up. The other wild card and there
is inflation, which is sort of under control but sort
of not so the Reserve Bank. If inflation goes up,
they might just step in and put interest rates up
a little bit too.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Oh, Cia, what are we going to see? What are
you seeing through your crystal ball that you look at.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
We would say that there might be increases late later
that year, so that will flow into interest rates increasing
as well. So what's driving that, Well, really it's inflation,
and if there are pockets of the economy that actually
starts surging, they'll try to temper that. So inflation is
(04:15):
the real threat and we saw that probably three years ago.
Remember farm prices. I think inflation on farm was up
seventeen eighteen percent in a year, which is horrendous and
very difficult to deal with. So the Reserve Bank will
crank the ocr and in turn interest rates if they
think there's a risk of that returning, well.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
We should be close to seeing positives in the economy
as well. I mean well, government's telling us time and
again that this is going to be the year twenty
twenty six. We're telling us late last year anyway, that
we're going to see a bit of a turnaround in
the Kiwi economy. And it's long over due. And the
COVID area you think about that a long time ago,
now years five years plus six years for goodness sake,
(04:55):
but we just got to start standing on our feet
as a nation though. When it comes to money.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
Yes, yes, And I think lower interest rates for those
with mortgages will help because a lot of those households
will have more to spend up the main street on restaurants, bars, cafes, clothes, cars, TVs. Everything.
So if people start spending more, then money will start
flowing around. Businesses will make more, people will feel more
(05:22):
secure in their jobs, and then in turn, the economy
should get some traction.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Look, there's a lot of big things happening in Gore
as well. To put a local sense on it, we've
got Southern Field Days coming up. Steve Henson on the
show before it's going to go gangbusters. We've got this
big multi multi athlete event happening at the end of February.
Amongst other things. You've got the Hockey Doy Moonshiners run
once again. I mean, there's a lot of stuff happening
in town and there's going to be a real vibe
(05:49):
in February, i'd say, through that throughout the area.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
Yes, yeah, I agree too. And there's stuff like a
mountain bike event down south this weekend. I think there's
a try thrown on in town.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
For at Monroe and you've got people coming and going.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
Yeah, it's a good positive time a year because people
are more active, the sun shining, they're a bit more
chipper so and if there's money flowing through the economy,
that positivity can continue into winter.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Right. This is election Yeah, this is where the pro
wrestling terminologies come out, and we go back to nineteen
ninety two with the Holster of Macho Man and Winston
Peters and Christopher Luxon and Chris Atkins everybody else, and
trying to see how our government is going to be
made up. It's interesting there will be a change in
dynamics with the government I'm picking yes.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
I think it will largely depend on the economy and
whether the average household thinks they're better off in the
National or maybe Labor, and then the coalition, the dynamics
of our government will will act and New Zealand first
get more votes off National. Will there be a bit
of a swing and an arm wrestle over that coalition
agreement down the track it could be closer than we
(06:57):
think in it's early days. Convinced we have the most
charismatic leaders out there with the best conviction for the voters,
so there's a lot of ground for them to make
up over the coming months, and then there'll be a
lolly scramble and a bonfight at election time. And then
ideally we don't have to wait too long to know
what sort of coalition has been formed, because undoubtedly those
(07:20):
main parties National and Labor would have to rely on
others to get across the line.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Look, I listened to Winston Peters on the radio this morning.
He's full on campaigning mode already, and he has been
since he lost, well since he stepped down from being
Vice Prime minist Deputy prime Minister.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
And that's the time he's most vocal with then, isn't
it It's it's campaigning time and he knows how to
play the game extremely well.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Interesting times, David Craig's Investment Partners, How do people get
in touch?
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Well, you can pop into our new office which is
one Ierk Street opposite the New World and Gore, or
you can check us out online craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
Good on your David, Chad again, thanks very much. David
Frame of Craig's Investment Partners, hearing well, you're listening to
the muster Don Howie Morrison Willebank farmer. He's up next.
The Muster Financial Segment with Craig's Investment Partners in Gore.
This information is general in nature and it's not financial advice.
Craig's Investment Partners Limited financial Advice provider disclosure statement can
be found at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Good morning, David Frame of Craig's Investment Partners joins us
for the first time in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
God, a happy new Year, Andy, Happy New Year.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Any resolutions that you've made that you've managed to break
so far?
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Yeah, losing weight which hasn't worked.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Are we going to do a bit of a review
of last year as well, Dave, and think about we'll
actually look at what happened as for as stock markers,
interest rates. I mean, you look at anything and everything,
especially from a Southern lens regarding financials, how would you
rank it?
Speaker 3 (00:50):
I think it was a good year overall. Now the
headlines didn't necessarily reflect that, but farming community seem a
lot better. We've got some good prices there. I think
town's coming along a lot better than it was twelve
months ago. Yeah, I'm pretty positive about the future.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Positive being the key word there, and there's a lot
of positivity around at the moment, seeing the way that
red meat prices are staying up. There was a correction
in the GDT last week. He came up and leaps
and bounds after. I think it may have been eight declines,
so we may see. It'll be interesting what happens with
the next one term.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
I suppose, yeah, And a lot of that's volume related
and depending on the time of year, so it bounces around.
Be nice to see the trend reverse and get the
milk price maybe a bit more stable and a bit
more towards ten bucks.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
So what was a big thing that stuck out for
you from last year's markets?
Speaker 3 (01:40):
I think the wealthy economy started rebounding really well after
the whole COVID sort of debacle. Because we had cheap
money in twenty twenty twenty one, people spend a lot
of money. Inflation shot through the roof, and then interest
rates shot through the roof. People lost confidence where last
interest rates came down. So we saw world markets going
(02:04):
up sort of around twenty percent. Some areas like Europe
went up twenty five percent. So we saw investment returns
for sort of balanced investors of maybe eight to ten
percent for the year, which is good really good.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Interesting the way the Kiwi dollar has been bouncing around.
Speaker 3 (02:20):
Yeah, and it's looking pretty sad at the moment. It's
the lowest I've seen against the Aussie for ages. I'm
heading overseas for a holiday in a few months time
and I won't be getting as much for my buck.
So a lot of people think we should rebound because
our economy is rebounding. So we'll have to see how
it goes through the year. But it's certainly in a
(02:41):
sad spot right now.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Yeah, eighty six cents not that long ago. It was
in the nineties.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
Yeah, I think it was sort of mid nineties, maybe
halfway through last year. The only positive from that is
that the exporters should be able to sell their goods
for more than Kiwi dollars.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
There's always a silver lining to something. That was the
one thing I was going to say that sport prices
at the moment are good and this would be the driver.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Yes, Yeah, which is good. We need that sort of
tailwind when the domestic economy is suffering a bit.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Yes, So we look at the year that's ahead of
us interest rates and the likes, what are we going
to get?
Speaker 3 (03:15):
Well, I believe interest rates might have bottomed out, so
we'll have to see how the economy goes. But the
Reserve Bank seems to think they've done most of the work.
Not too sure if they'll head up again by the
end of the year. But if the economy starts cranking
again and it's taking a while, then we might see
(03:36):
rates start tracking up. The other wild card and there
is inflation, which is sort of under control but sort
of not so the Reserve Bank. If inflation goes up,
they might just step in and put interest rates up
a little bit too.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Oh, Cia, what are we going to see? What are
you seeing through your crystal ball that you look at.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
We would say that there might be increases late later
that year, so that will flow into interest rates increasing
as well. So what's driving that, Well, really it's inflation,
and if there are pockets of the economy that actually
starts surging, they'll try to temper that. So inflation is
(04:15):
the real threat and we saw that probably three years ago.
Remember farm prices. I think inflation on farm was up
seventeen eighteen percent in a year, which is horrendous and
very difficult to deal with. So the Reserve Bank will
crank the ocr and in turn interest rates if they
think there's a risk of that returning, well.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
We should be close to seeing positives in the economy
as well. I mean well, government's telling us time and
again that this is going to be the year twenty
twenty six. We're telling us late last year anyway, that
we're going to see a bit of a turnaround in
the Kiwi economy. And it's long over due. And the
COVID area you think about that a long time ago,
now years five years plus six years for goodness sake,
(04:55):
but we just got to start standing on our feet
as a nation though. When it comes to money.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
Yes, yes, And I think lower interest rates for those
with mortgages will help because a lot of those households
will have more to spend up the main street on restaurants, bars, cafes, clothes, cars, TVs. Everything.
So if people start spending more, then money will start
flowing around. Businesses will make more, people will feel more
(05:22):
secure in their jobs, and then in turn, the economy
should get some traction.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Look, there's a lot of big things happening in Gore
as well. To put a local sense on it, we've
got Southern Field Days coming up. Steve Henson on the
show before it's going to go gangbusters. We've got this
big multi multi athlete event happening at the end of February.
Amongst other things. You've got the Hockey Doy Moonshiners run
once again. I mean, there's a lot of stuff happening
in town and there's going to be a real vibe
(05:49):
in February, i'd say, through that throughout the area.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
Yes, yeah, I agree too. And there's stuff like a
mountain bike event down south this weekend. I think there's
a try thrown on in town.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
For at Monroe and you've got people coming and going.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
Yeah, it's a good positive time a year because people
are more active, the sun shining, they're a bit more
chipper so and if there's money flowing through the economy,
that positivity can continue into winter.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Right. This is election Yeah, this is where the pro
wrestling terminologies come out, and we go back to nineteen
ninety two with the Holster of Macho Man and Winston
Peters and Christopher Luxon and Chris Atkins everybody else, and
trying to see how our government is going to be
made up. It's interesting there will be a change in
dynamics with the government I'm picking yes.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
I think it will largely depend on the economy and
whether the average household thinks they're better off in the
National or maybe Labor, and then the coalition, the dynamics
of our government will will act and New Zealand first
get more votes off National. Will there be a bit
of a swing and an arm wrestle over that coalition
agreement down the track it could be closer than we
(06:57):
think in it's early days. Convinced we have the most
charismatic leaders out there with the best conviction for the voters,
so there's a lot of ground for them to make
up over the coming months, and then there'll be a
lolly scramble and a bonfight at election time. And then
ideally we don't have to wait too long to know
what sort of coalition has been formed, because undoubtedly those
(07:20):
main parties National and Labor would have to rely on
others to get across the line.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Look, I listened to Winston Peters on the radio this morning.
He's full on campaigning mode already, and he has been
since he lost, well since he stepped down from being
Vice Prime minist Deputy prime Minister.
Speaker 3 (07:37):
And that's the time he's most vocal with then, isn't
it It's it's campaigning time and he knows how to
play the game extremely well.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Interesting times, David Craig's Investment Partners, How do people get
in touch?
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Well, you can pop into our new office which is
one Ierk Street opposite the New World and Gore, or
you can check us out online craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
Good on your David, Chad again, thanks very much. David
Frame of Craig's Investment Partners, hearing well, you're listening to
the muster Don Howie Morrison Willebank farmer. He's up next.
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