March 3, 2026 • 10 mins
Janes Edgar looks at a strong farming season both growth and value wise.
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
James Edgar joins us this afternoon farming at moa Flat. James,
good afternoon, rock Sett. That's a pretty cool song. Dangerous.
They were massive back in the day.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Yeah, no, I do actually like Rossett gets you going
for the day, and there's been happening. So yeah, one
of your better choices, I suppose over her different musical.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
I was just about to say that you've been pretty
cynical about some of my song selections for you, which
is fair enough. Music is open to interpretation. But you're
pretty scathing.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
I have been in the past any But that's that's
the way things go.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
James. Let's talk about the situation we're seeing at the moment.
There's a whole lot to decipher if we're honest about
the situation. Firstly, though, the price of Lamb. These rumors
about spring contracts for Lamb.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Yeah no, I've heard probably rumors like you, and it'll
be interesting. I mean, what can we take out We
can take out them once again, this is my opinion.
I think we'll set it about ten dollars fifty somewhere
around there for the mid season price, as we're already
a long way through. I have always suspicion that there
might not be as many lambs around as what maybe
(01:18):
forecast as well. But once again, that's it's just my suspicion.
I guess if we look at Mile Flat like a
next door Davor Big two seven years has just been
planted into pine trees, and we have other land use
changes around the place, and just for the difficult season too.
I certainly see more cattle around the place as we've
(01:40):
sort of changed through, you know, probably a product of
the last two years ago when the land price was
so low. There's sort of there's certainly been a lot
of land use change. So I just wonder where not
the beef and land forecasts have really keyed into just
how many farms have gone to forestry. I mean, you
only get driveted to the need and don't you so No,
I think if it said it was there, and then
(02:01):
you possibly think that maybe there's two dollars on plus
to the winter contract. But I mean time will tell,
won't it.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
These forecasts that come out in November, I'd question it.
I wonder how they get the accuracy around them.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
I know they've got Montor farmers and then they wring
them up and then they forecast. I think possibly they
were right that there has been a higher lemming, but
I think that maybe they haven't forecast or really got
there was probably some of the land use change. I mean, yeah,
maybe per head per year, the performance was up because
we did have two dollar thiabolical springs in a row.
(02:35):
But yeah, I just wonder maybe though haven't quite accounted
for the fallen sheer numbers of breeding use will be
one one thought of mine.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Well, that just doesn't the lambs around that just seems
to stick out of the proverbial no.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
And they haven't done that well this year, Like it's
been a bit of a battle some of the crop lambs.
They haven't been quite as bad. It's been the first
year so we use share a lot of lambs at
the start of February, and there's certainly, you know, sixty
or seventy percent of the years they really fly. You
get that warm weather in feedbrury and quite often you're
(03:10):
getting a bit dry and the lambs just really round up.
And I personally think this year we show them and
I think they set. I don't think they went as
well as even the lambs that stayed wooly. So yeah,
it's just sort of been a little bit of a
battle lamb finishing in general this year. But even driving
around for how far behind the kill we are, like,
(03:31):
you just don't see massive volumes of lambs.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Well, especially for store lambs, hearing likes of five dollars
up to five dollars fifty and some instances I do believe.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Yeah, And that's fantastic, isn't it. I hope there's an
industry like one thing that's sticking out. We're talking off
the year there about Iran. But one thing I can
see is I personally don't see the lamb price changing
all that much for the next couple of years. But
I mean, it's really looking like we're going to get
some more cost inflation, which is yeah, when they say
inflation doesn't nobody wins. But you know, there's been been
(04:07):
emails sent out from the fertilizer co ops already and
they and then we're going to see some oil price
pressure and no doubt the rates and various things the
other councils will have to put in there five cents too,
So you can see that sticking away from mile away.
There's just the cost pressure on which will impact their
margin for the high prices. You know that's sticking out
of mile away.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
Well, if Trump be doing what he's doing in Iran
is short and short, do you think perhaps it'll only
be a short term correction.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
No, I don't. No, No, I think when they say
fifty percent of the whole world's food is directly accounted
for from nitrogen fertilizer, and most of the nitrogen fertilizer
has come from the gas in terms of like you know,
oil and gas production basically. So no, I think even
(04:56):
a short term shot there and places like China and
you're trying to shore up your own food supply by
using more notched and fertiliser, I really see that going
up to a new level, if I'm honest.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
So farm gate inflation comes into the equation once again.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
Yes, I think it's slipping out. It's definitely something I'm
thinking about already, and we'll probably start pricing into my
business going forward for the next couple of years. I
just don't see anyway. It's not going to be quite
a substantial amount of it. As I say. The good
news is the product prices have been higher, but yeah,
it's pretty hard to see that going anywhere.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
So how are you going to work out a budget
for your stock for next season.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
I'll be using the same numbers as this season, Andy,
That's what I'm going to be using. YEP. I think
that's going to be a reflection. There's nothing there I
can see that's fundamentally going to change. One of the
things I actually look at. So when you're looking at
the kettle prices, I know the old saying was always
keep an eye on the American kettle herd. So when
they're in rebuilt and face phases, basically the price was
(06:00):
always strong. And when they're selling down, you know their herd,
the kettle price dropped. And from what I've seen, I
just watched the Australian sheep herd. For the sheep when
they're heading up towards one hundred million sheep, at some
stage they liquidate their flock and their lamb price goes
substantially backwards. And when they end up back down towards
(06:21):
sixty million sheep in Australia, they start accumulating them again
and you usually find the price is strong. So that's
a thing that I can see. And yeah, I think
the cattle herds just starting to rebuilding America, but that
won't change for next year, I don't believe in. And
the sheep liquidations probably stopped in Australia, but they're still
a few years away from getting back up towards one
(06:42):
hundred million sheep.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
Yeah, certainly fascinating times when you look around the world
is what's going to happen regarding food security? The EU,
the UK for example, very parochial around buying locally and
the likes. But yeah, I mean these are different times.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
Yeah they are. I think that it still doesn't phaze
me so much. Like the fundamentals of just being a
good farmer and a good business owner, they really haven't
changed whether or not the price is up or down.
You know, you don't know, it's lightly easy when the
price is up and clear you've got to capitalize when
the price is up to try and set the business
up for the next time that the prices are poor
(07:22):
as a Yeah, so then that it still comes back
to the basics and fundamentals and and that won't change
very much.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
You talk about the dairy being look for gold at
the moment, well, why Kaka gold mine is limited? This
what's happening over there? This is a good news story.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Oh absolutely, it's stall pugnance on the and the more
gold mines and the more farms and the more excellence
I would call it that the South and the Otago
districts can do down here is just absolutely key in
my opinion. I think New Zealand's got really strong laws
about how they have to leave it after they've finished
gold mine it or coal or whatever it is or farming.
(08:03):
So like there's some really strong rules there that you
can't just pillage the land. But I'd argue in some
circumstances that the land actually gets left in a more
useful way than when it started. Plus we've had this
great economic boost for the for the district down here.
So no, absolutely, the more we can do, the better.
(08:24):
And you know, and I actually take my head off
for the people that have invested in it and put
everything on the line, I guess and got over and yeah,
I just hope. You know, the next thing with the
gold corner farming is you're in there for twenty or
thirty years. So I hope if there's change of governments
or there's yeah, different councils coming that maybe there's less
(08:46):
flip flopping and changing like you'd like to think that
I've now got signed off and they got to go
for the length of the resource consent.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
Just finally, how are things looking on the farm at
mar Flat.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
We're two farms and ten kilometers apart, and their higher
farm that's more towards the east, it's having probably the
best season we've had for a long long time. And
the one that's more towards the west getting towards waikaias
we're now really quite dry, lost most of their pastry cover. Yes,
(09:20):
so really a towe of two tapes. But equally we
changed their farming system for the last couple of years.
So now we've just started exiting bulls, we'll well through
the lambs. Ironically, the lambs have done a lot better
on the dry farm. We'll probably had the best lambs
and all three from the drier farm with less feed,
but it's probably just been a bit warmer there maybe.
(09:43):
So anyway, we're exiting those and yeah, so we'll be
right down to the least amount of numbers we can
probably in two weeks. And yeah, hopefully we get a
good autumn because it's going to be quite a long
winter on that block especially, But if we don't get
a bit of coindness because we had a big frosty
the day and it was boardline trying to snow about
two days before that. So yeah, no, no, she's she's
(10:06):
a long winter. If we start from February, Andy, good
on you.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
James chat again, Thank you, James Eggor Farming at maa
flat the tail of a tape. Two farms ta kilometers
apart and totally different regarding pasture cover. Steve Henderson's up next,
farming down at our row. We catch him on maneuvers
this afternoon somewhere
James Edgar joins us this afternoon farming at moa Flat. James,
good afternoon, rock Sett. That's a pretty cool song. Dangerous.
They were massive back in the day.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Yeah, no, I do actually like Rossett gets you going
for the day, and there's been happening. So yeah, one
of your better choices, I suppose over her different musical.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
I was just about to say that you've been pretty
cynical about some of my song selections for you, which
is fair enough. Music is open to interpretation. But you're
pretty scathing.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
I have been in the past any But that's that's
the way things go.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
James. Let's talk about the situation we're seeing at the moment.
There's a whole lot to decipher if we're honest about
the situation. Firstly, though, the price of Lamb. These rumors
about spring contracts for Lamb.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Yeah no, I've heard probably rumors like you, and it'll
be interesting. I mean, what can we take out We
can take out them once again, this is my opinion.
I think we'll set it about ten dollars fifty somewhere
around there for the mid season price, as we're already
a long way through. I have always suspicion that there
might not be as many lambs around as what maybe
(01:18):
forecast as well. But once again, that's it's just my suspicion.
I guess if we look at Mile Flat like a
next door Davor Big two seven years has just been
planted into pine trees, and we have other land use
changes around the place, and just for the difficult season too.
I certainly see more cattle around the place as we've
(01:40):
sort of changed through, you know, probably a product of
the last two years ago when the land price was
so low. There's sort of there's certainly been a lot
of land use change. So I just wonder where not
the beef and land forecasts have really keyed into just
how many farms have gone to forestry. I mean, you
only get driveted to the need and don't you so No,
I think if it said it was there, and then
(02:01):
you possibly think that maybe there's two dollars on plus
to the winter contract. But I mean time will tell,
won't it.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
These forecasts that come out in November, I'd question it.
I wonder how they get the accuracy around them.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
I know they've got Montor farmers and then they wring
them up and then they forecast. I think possibly they
were right that there has been a higher lemming, but
I think that maybe they haven't forecast or really got
there was probably some of the land use change. I mean, yeah,
maybe per head per year, the performance was up because
we did have two dollar thiabolical springs in a row.
(02:35):
But yeah, I just wonder maybe though haven't quite accounted
for the fallen sheer numbers of breeding use will be
one one thought of mine.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Well, that just doesn't the lambs around that just seems
to stick out of the proverbial no.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
And they haven't done that well this year, Like it's
been a bit of a battle some of the crop lambs.
They haven't been quite as bad. It's been the first
year so we use share a lot of lambs at
the start of February, and there's certainly, you know, sixty
or seventy percent of the years they really fly. You
get that warm weather in feedbrury and quite often you're
(03:10):
getting a bit dry and the lambs just really round up.
And I personally think this year we show them and
I think they set. I don't think they went as
well as even the lambs that stayed wooly. So yeah,
it's just sort of been a little bit of a
battle lamb finishing in general this year. But even driving
around for how far behind the kill we are, like,
(03:31):
you just don't see massive volumes of lambs.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
Well, especially for store lambs, hearing likes of five dollars
up to five dollars fifty and some instances I do believe.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Yeah, And that's fantastic, isn't it. I hope there's an
industry like one thing that's sticking out. We're talking off
the year there about Iran. But one thing I can
see is I personally don't see the lamb price changing
all that much for the next couple of years. But
I mean, it's really looking like we're going to get
some more cost inflation, which is yeah, when they say
inflation doesn't nobody wins. But you know, there's been been
(04:07):
emails sent out from the fertilizer co ops already and
they and then we're going to see some oil price
pressure and no doubt the rates and various things the
other councils will have to put in there five cents too,
So you can see that sticking away from mile away.
There's just the cost pressure on which will impact their
margin for the high prices. You know that's sticking out
of mile away.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
Well, if Trump be doing what he's doing in Iran
is short and short, do you think perhaps it'll only
be a short term correction.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
No, I don't. No, No, I think when they say
fifty percent of the whole world's food is directly accounted
for from nitrogen fertilizer, and most of the nitrogen fertilizer
has come from the gas in terms of like you know,
oil and gas production basically. So no, I think even
(04:56):
a short term shot there and places like China and
you're trying to shore up your own food supply by
using more notched and fertiliser, I really see that going
up to a new level, if I'm honest.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
So farm gate inflation comes into the equation once again.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
Yes, I think it's slipping out. It's definitely something I'm
thinking about already, and we'll probably start pricing into my
business going forward for the next couple of years. I
just don't see anyway. It's not going to be quite
a substantial amount of it. As I say. The good
news is the product prices have been higher, but yeah,
it's pretty hard to see that going anywhere.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
So how are you going to work out a budget
for your stock for next season.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
I'll be using the same numbers as this season, Andy,
That's what I'm going to be using. YEP. I think
that's going to be a reflection. There's nothing there I
can see that's fundamentally going to change. One of the
things I actually look at. So when you're looking at
the kettle prices, I know the old saying was always
keep an eye on the American kettle herd. So when
they're in rebuilt and face phases, basically the price was
(06:00):
always strong. And when they're selling down, you know their herd,
the kettle price dropped. And from what I've seen, I
just watched the Australian sheep herd. For the sheep when
they're heading up towards one hundred million sheep, at some
stage they liquidate their flock and their lamb price goes
substantially backwards. And when they end up back down towards
(06:21):
sixty million sheep in Australia, they start accumulating them again
and you usually find the price is strong. So that's
a thing that I can see. And yeah, I think
the cattle herds just starting to rebuilding America, but that
won't change for next year, I don't believe in. And
the sheep liquidations probably stopped in Australia, but they're still
a few years away from getting back up towards one
(06:42):
hundred million sheep.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
Yeah, certainly fascinating times when you look around the world
is what's going to happen regarding food security? The EU,
the UK for example, very parochial around buying locally and
the likes. But yeah, I mean these are different times.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
Yeah they are. I think that it still doesn't phaze
me so much. Like the fundamentals of just being a
good farmer and a good business owner, they really haven't
changed whether or not the price is up or down.
You know, you don't know, it's lightly easy when the
price is up and clear you've got to capitalize when
the price is up to try and set the business
up for the next time that the prices are poor
(07:22):
as a Yeah, so then that it still comes back
to the basics and fundamentals and and that won't change
very much.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
You talk about the dairy being look for gold at
the moment, well, why Kaka gold mine is limited? This
what's happening over there? This is a good news story.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Oh absolutely, it's stall pugnance on the and the more
gold mines and the more farms and the more excellence
I would call it that the South and the Otago
districts can do down here is just absolutely key in
my opinion. I think New Zealand's got really strong laws
about how they have to leave it after they've finished
gold mine it or coal or whatever it is or farming.
(08:03):
So like there's some really strong rules there that you
can't just pillage the land. But I'd argue in some
circumstances that the land actually gets left in a more
useful way than when it started. Plus we've had this
great economic boost for the for the district down here.
So no, absolutely, the more we can do, the better.
(08:24):
And you know, and I actually take my head off
for the people that have invested in it and put
everything on the line, I guess and got over and yeah,
I just hope. You know, the next thing with the
gold corner farming is you're in there for twenty or
thirty years. So I hope if there's change of governments
or there's yeah, different councils coming that maybe there's less
(08:46):
flip flopping and changing like you'd like to think that
I've now got signed off and they got to go
for the length of the resource consent.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
Just finally, how are things looking on the farm at
mar Flat.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
We're two farms and ten kilometers apart, and their higher
farm that's more towards the east, it's having probably the
best season we've had for a long long time. And
the one that's more towards the west getting towards waikaias
we're now really quite dry, lost most of their pastry cover. Yes,
(09:20):
so really a towe of two tapes. But equally we
changed their farming system for the last couple of years.
So now we've just started exiting bulls, we'll well through
the lambs. Ironically, the lambs have done a lot better
on the dry farm. We'll probably had the best lambs
and all three from the drier farm with less feed,
but it's probably just been a bit warmer there maybe.
(09:43):
So anyway, we're exiting those and yeah, so we'll be
right down to the least amount of numbers we can
probably in two weeks. And yeah, hopefully we get a
good autumn because it's going to be quite a long
winter on that block especially, But if we don't get
a bit of coindness because we had a big frosty
the day and it was boardline trying to snow about
two days before that. So yeah, no, no, she's she's
(10:06):
a long winter. If we start from February, Andy, good
on you.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
James chat again, Thank you, James Eggor Farming at maa
flat the tail of a tape. Two farms ta kilometers
apart and totally different regarding pasture cover. Steve Henderson's up next,
farming down at our row. We catch him on maneuvers
this afternoon somewhere
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