The Muster- Phil Duncan: Weather Watch

Phil Duncan of Weather Watch looks at the southern forecast for the next seven days.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Down there? Did the wind sweep you welcome? Did you
find again the chairs? Then this is the muster on Hakanui.
Once again, we catch up with Full Duncan out of
weather Watch Death Texas and Alana Smyris sat on a

(00:35):
Friday afternoon, Phil Duncan, Good afternoon.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Good afternoon, Good to be again.

Speaker 1 (00:40):
We haven't spoken for a couple of weeks, and in
those few weeks that have passed so there has been
pretty hideous down here with these wins. What are we
seeing over the next seven days straight off the bat.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
I actually had a complaint last night from someone just
north of you, near Roxbury actually, and so how it's
been a little bit whindy lake and I was saying
that I think there's a change coming over the next
couple of days, but you might just have to get
through two more days and then we do see those
winds easing. So yeah, a little bit windy today and
probably a little bit windier tomorrow. Big nor wester are

(01:13):
cranking up tomorrow. Well I shouldn't say big, but a
nor wester is cranking up, so there could be gusts
just getting into gale force in some areas. I think
after the winds you've just had. It probably won't cause
too many problems because whatever branches and trees were going
to come down, they probably would have done it. But
you never know. Loose branches that were broken from the
last event might fall off here and there. But I

(01:34):
don't really expect tomorrow to be a major day. And
then after that, apart from a little bit of a
westerly that just might pop up every now and then,
we've got some really calm days coming up, especially going
into next to the start of next week and through
next week. So there's some good news on the wind perspective,
but just today tomorrow is still a bit windy.

Speaker 1 (01:52):
Were you surprised at how severe those wines were?

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Yeah, I was, yep, yep, I was. The storm itself
was a little bit unusual because we don't often get
a low that's right over Stuart Island and then the
squash zone is over Fovo straight in Southland that I've
seen it happen a couple of times before, but not
as intense as that. And the last time I saw that,
which would have been at least I want to say,
several years ago, if not ten fifteen years ago, was

(02:18):
a storm that developed just off the coast of the
Catland and it drove in a really strong hurricane force wind,
but most of that hit Otago Peninsula went northward's up
the coast, it didn't really come into Southland that much. So, yeah,
this one was a little different from the just from
its placement, but because it moved through so fast, it
just didn't linger and that's why the damage was lucky.

(02:39):
I mean, I know that sounds weird to say, but
if that storm had just stalled there for a few hours,
it would have been a very, very different situation.

Speaker 1 (02:47):
So we're going to see a bit more of a
settled late spring system for the rest of the month,
would you say, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (02:53):
So what's going on is like to look at what's
happening in Southland. I think it's good to look at
what's going on in Australia and the southeast corner of
Australia in particular, where you're sharing the same weather pattern
as them. Although Southland has had a far better start
to November than Kasmania and Victoria have had. They've had
widespread cold blasts and thunderstorms and all sorts of stuff,

(03:15):
whereas Southland's had a bit of a breather, even though
it's not perfect yet. We haven't been seen the severe
weather and the cold stuff. But they've got a big
cold blast coming at the start of next week, and
I think that is going to affect ow whether at
the start of next week as well, not not in
a major way, but Monday we do see a burst
of rain coming through and maybe sort of thirteen fifteen

(03:36):
millimeters on the way, might be a couple of isolated thunderstorms,
and the temperatures drop a tiny bit, not by day though,
only by nighttime, so the overnight loads tonight eleven, Sunday
night at thirteen. But next week we've got five sixes
and sevens, so the temperatures drop by nighttime, but the

(03:57):
daytime high is pretty consistent between of eighteen and twenty
degrees right through until the end of next week, and
that's when it looks like our next cold snack comes in.
Where Friday next week we're going to hire fourteen and
Saturday next weekend a high of twelve with a few
showers around. So that's the only really cold bit. Is
a week away really coming up?

Speaker 1 (04:18):
Is it time to pack the fire up for the year,
or is that a bit preemptive.

Speaker 2 (04:22):
You know. Seeing a high of twelve and a low
of five eight days away from now makes me think
maybe just hold on a little bit longer, because you know,
that's cold. I wouldn't want to be sitting in a
house when it's been twelve degrees all day outside. That'll
be a bit cold. So yeah, you might might just
want to keep it around for a little bit longer.
I think, you know, people a lot of people are
asking me what some are going to be like, you know,

(04:44):
la media and all these things. I still see the
Southern Ocean being the most energetic weather force we've got
in the entire southern hemisphere at the moment. So because
of that, I don't see the spring pattern just suddenly ending,
despite the fact that around mini parts New Zealand today
it's like especially around the east and the north of
the country where it's twenty five twenty eight degrees today

(05:06):
as it was yesterday and the day before, like December
temperatures at the start of November. But I do still
think that's a bit of a blip and we're still
going to be getting westerlies and southwesterlies probably right through
into December this year, and so give me a few
more weeks end of November, because by then I'll be
able to say if that westerly is still showing up,
then then it's probably safe to say it will carry

(05:27):
on into January. But for now we're just waiting to
find out if we're going to see a bit of
a break. We are seeing some changes in Australia. They
are getting longer stretches of dry and fewer blasts of
cold weather, but they're still getting the polar boundary, which
you're not getting this week. The polar boundaries coming into
Victoria to Melbourne, which is a lot further north than

(05:49):
south members beginning at least two times in the next
seven days. So very very unsettled stormy pattern around Antarctica.
And I'll just end it on this bit. Like as
far as the Antarctic weather that is concerned, I talked
about that sudden stratospheric warming that happened over Antarctica back
in winter. Really simple way of looking at it is

(06:09):
we all understand what a solar flare is, right, some
gigantic thing and a soul of flair will burst out
of it from one part. Well, we get these polar
flares that are kind of similar. So around Antartica, every
now and then you'll get a burst of cold weather.
They're coming out. And so these polar flares i call them,
have been hitting Australia and missing New Zealand and so

(06:32):
that's just luck of the draw. And so to me,
it's just a matter of time before we get our
next one. And it does look as though maybe the
end of next week we might get one of those
polar flares where we get a burst of wintry weather.
They're coming back in, but in spring style it shouldn't
last more than a day or two.

Speaker 1 (06:46):
So darking of weather Watch. Always appreciating your time on
the Muster. You enjoy the weekend, sir, Cheers buddy, you too,
So dar going to wear the watch before we wrap
up for the week. Here on the Muster, Grant disaster
mac Master at a close trans station. Get back to
the Milky Way.