January 15, 2026 • 7 mins
Phil Duncan looks at the southern forecast for the next seven days.
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
For the first time in twenty twenty six, Let's chicken
with Phil Duncan of weather Watch. Phil Duncan, Good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Good afternoon, and happy New Year. I know too late
to say that, isn't it now.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
It's a very awful conversation. So in the first week,
I'll give you some saving grace. Mate, How was your holiday?
Did you have a holiday? Or does a weather not
stop like the farming.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
It's like farming. It's like farmers. You take your holiday
when there's like a gap in the weather, and it's
just like kind of the right gap and the weather. Yeah, yeah,
when you see you like a sunny spell coming or
whatever it is. But you know, I did get a break.
It wasn't you know. It wasn't a proper, proper one.
But we had a lot of thunderstorms at the end
of December and the very first couple of days of January,
(01:08):
and I was a little bit nervous that I wasn't
going to get tired out. But the first week was
pretty quiet, So yeah, I got tied out. I got
to sleep in for about two weeks, which was enough
to energize me for another year of waking up early.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
So what have you got for the weather down here
in the Deep South, because it has not been a
particularly coin summer so far.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Yeah, I feel like I already feel guilty with this
interview because it's, yeah, it's not the best at the moment.
It is going to get better, so I've got positive news,
but yet it is going to be I would argue
it's actually going to be a bit of a cold
couple of days, just a couple of days. Overnight low
on Tomorrow night Saturday night is three degrees. So this
(01:47):
happened last year. I remember we talked at the end
of January last year because there was a frost in
parts of northern Southland. I don't think we'll see a frost,
you know, three degrees of cold, but the ground's warm ish,
so probably not but possible on the surface of some
vehicles and things. And the daytime temperature today, you know,
(02:08):
only around thirteen or fourteen. Tonight's low is single digits.
In fact, single digit overnight lows right through until Wednesday
next week. Next week does warm up and you know
Wednesday next week could be in the mid twenties just
for the one day, but it's probably I don't know.
I'd say, it's a little more like March. The temperatures
that it's not like peak summer. It feels like you're
(02:29):
kind of at the start or the end of summer
as far as temperatures are concerned. So, yeah, you've had
a bit of a cold run and that's obviously continuing
for the next couple more days and the next few
more nights.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
So as far as the rest of January, what do
we got?
Speaker 2 (02:43):
So we are seeing high pressure growing. So part of
the reason it's cold is there's quite a strong high
pressure zone moving in from Tasmania, but it's south of
Tazzy and so that southern placement means that as it
moves into Southland or south of Southland, it dreadses up
southerly because southerly is are usually what you get when
the start of a high pressure moves in and then
(03:04):
you get the warmer, more humid northerlies when the high
moves out east of us. And so you're dredging up
the cold air at the moment. But the high pressure
zone means you're probably going to see some dryer weather
coming through for a time, especially as we go into
sort of the weekend, going into Sunday, and then once
we get to about Monday Tuesday, that high pressure zone
is just south of Stuart Island. By Wednesday next week,
(03:27):
that's your warmest day of the next seven or eight days.
That high pressure zone is east of Dunedin, sort of
between Dunedin and the Chatham Island the center of it,
so it moves a little further northwards and that's when
you get that northerly or northeasterly airflow. Another fun fact
about Wednesday next week is while you warm up a
little bit and you've got really settled weather with the
higher round to the north of the country, there could
(03:49):
be a tropical cyclone or an ex tropical cyclone coming
into the north of the country, and we're not really
sure what happens after that. It might kind of drop
right down over New Zeeland and unravel. It's not a storm,
but just a large area of low pressure. I mean
when I say large, I mean engulfing all of New Zealand.
And you're on the southern end next to another high
(04:11):
pressure zone moving in. So that means probably easterly winds
kicking in for you later next week and they could
become kind of strong, but because they'll have a subtropical connection,
they may not be overly cold. But yeah, it's a
bit of a funny forecast, but it's you're at the
better end of the country. Put it that way as
far as sort of the worst of the weather is concerned.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
A lot of Ely's in the forecast. I was out
of cracker practice last night at Hamilton Park and it
was just better. It just cuts through you. It was
like the middle of May.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Yeah, easterly is are you know, they're not the best
wind direction and a number of regions unless you live
on the west coast and it's like a reverse Noll Western.
But yeah, the easterlies are coming in. And you know
I've been talking about Larnin. You're off and on since winter.
It's now weather Us at the moment. Larminia is expected
to day for the rest of summer. And this is
(05:03):
the first week where the weather pattern has looked like
La Nina in New Zealand, where we've got easterlies everywhere
around the country. And like I say, a possible tropical
cyclone or just a tropical depression dropping down. It's sort
of moderate chance that it will become a cyclone north
of the country and then it falls apart here it
changes into a new system, and like I say, it
(05:23):
could be quite a large low. Large I always say
large loads are like large human beings, right. Some can
be very tough and strong with muscles. Others can be
kind of lazier and larger. Sorry to the listeners if
anyone's defended by that, But the.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Bigger bind individuals lightless south I'll give you your.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Time, yeah, and myself at the moment after summer. But
basically I say that because sometimes people see a large lower,
they hear of a large low, and they think of
it as been like you know, like your black of
weather systems, But sometimes they're just kind of large and
lazy and they don't really do a lot of severe weather,
but they produce low pressure everywhere and that produces instability,
(06:00):
which means you can get thunderstorms and rain areas and
kind of messy sort of forecast. So that's what we're
monitoring next week. I think for you guys, it's not
looking like severe weather, but the low is possibly going
to affect our weather pattern for quite a large part
of the rest of January. So we're just sort of
waiting to see where that goes. But the high pressure
zones are closest to Southland more than they are to
(06:22):
Northland and Auckland, so there's a little positive spin on
it for you.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
As far as our Mania, Almino or Laminia, none of
that comes into the equation.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
I mean, Lamina is around, and like I say, it's
kind of peaking probably about now, which is why we're
getting these loads. But at the same time, this time
of the year is when we get tropical lows. You know,
we're going into the real peak of the cyclone season
right now to kind of the end of March. So
this is the time of year that we get tropical
cyclones forming, you know, like I said, potential one then
(06:53):
New Caledonia next week, and then there also might be
another one over on the western side of Australia up
near Brew of things to keep an eye on. I mean,
the one over in western Australia doesn't pose a threat
to New Zealand, but it might drop down south of Australia.
Some of the long range maps, so staying as a
low all the way through the desert, popping out over
the southern part of Australia, and that could end up
(07:14):
coming to New Zealand just as a rain maker. Nothing.
You know, there won't be a cyclone at all by then,
just be some rain, but yeah, could affect us. So
there's a lot of low pressure in the tropics trying
to drop southwards. But at the same time the other
theme is high pressure zones both south of Australia and
mostly south of New Zealand and so that means there
will still be some cold injections. But you guys, perhaps
(07:37):
one of the regions more likely to get some sunny,
dry days more so than certainly the North Island neighbors
are going to be seen.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
Absolutely feel dun kind of weather watch. You always appreciate
your time on the muster.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
You're welcome, appreciate it, so duncan of weather watch.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Up next, Andrew Cocklin from It is Fits. You're listening
to the muster
For the first time in twenty twenty six, Let's chicken
with Phil Duncan of weather Watch. Phil Duncan, Good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Good afternoon, and happy New Year. I know too late
to say that, isn't it now.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
It's a very awful conversation. So in the first week,
I'll give you some saving grace. Mate, How was your holiday?
Did you have a holiday? Or does a weather not
stop like the farming.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
It's like farming. It's like farmers. You take your holiday
when there's like a gap in the weather, and it's
just like kind of the right gap and the weather. Yeah, yeah,
when you see you like a sunny spell coming or
whatever it is. But you know, I did get a break.
It wasn't you know. It wasn't a proper, proper one.
But we had a lot of thunderstorms at the end
of December and the very first couple of days of January,
(01:08):
and I was a little bit nervous that I wasn't
going to get tired out. But the first week was
pretty quiet, So yeah, I got tied out. I got
to sleep in for about two weeks, which was enough
to energize me for another year of waking up early.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
So what have you got for the weather down here
in the Deep South, because it has not been a
particularly coin summer so far.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Yeah, I feel like I already feel guilty with this
interview because it's, yeah, it's not the best at the moment.
It is going to get better, so I've got positive news,
but yet it is going to be I would argue
it's actually going to be a bit of a cold
couple of days, just a couple of days. Overnight low
on Tomorrow night Saturday night is three degrees. So this
(01:47):
happened last year. I remember we talked at the end
of January last year because there was a frost in
parts of northern Southland. I don't think we'll see a frost,
you know, three degrees of cold, but the ground's warm ish,
so probably not but possible on the surface of some
vehicles and things. And the daytime temperature today, you know,
(02:08):
only around thirteen or fourteen. Tonight's low is single digits.
In fact, single digit overnight lows right through until Wednesday
next week. Next week does warm up and you know
Wednesday next week could be in the mid twenties just
for the one day, but it's probably I don't know.
I'd say, it's a little more like March. The temperatures
that it's not like peak summer. It feels like you're
(02:29):
kind of at the start or the end of summer
as far as temperatures are concerned. So, yeah, you've had
a bit of a cold run and that's obviously continuing
for the next couple more days and the next few
more nights.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
So as far as the rest of January, what do
we got?
Speaker 2 (02:43):
So we are seeing high pressure growing. So part of
the reason it's cold is there's quite a strong high
pressure zone moving in from Tasmania, but it's south of
Tazzy and so that southern placement means that as it
moves into Southland or south of Southland, it dreadses up
southerly because southerly is are usually what you get when
the start of a high pressure moves in and then
(03:04):
you get the warmer, more humid northerlies when the high
moves out east of us. And so you're dredging up
the cold air at the moment. But the high pressure
zone means you're probably going to see some dryer weather
coming through for a time, especially as we go into
sort of the weekend, going into Sunday, and then once
we get to about Monday Tuesday, that high pressure zone
is just south of Stuart Island. By Wednesday next week,
(03:27):
that's your warmest day of the next seven or eight days.
That high pressure zone is east of Dunedin, sort of
between Dunedin and the Chatham Island the center of it,
so it moves a little further northwards and that's when
you get that northerly or northeasterly airflow. Another fun fact
about Wednesday next week is while you warm up a
little bit and you've got really settled weather with the
higher round to the north of the country, there could
(03:49):
be a tropical cyclone or an ex tropical cyclone coming
into the north of the country, and we're not really
sure what happens after that. It might kind of drop
right down over New Zeeland and unravel. It's not a storm,
but just a large area of low pressure. I mean
when I say large, I mean engulfing all of New Zealand.
And you're on the southern end next to another high
(04:11):
pressure zone moving in. So that means probably easterly winds
kicking in for you later next week and they could
become kind of strong, but because they'll have a subtropical connection,
they may not be overly cold. But yeah, it's a
bit of a funny forecast, but it's you're at the
better end of the country. Put it that way as
far as sort of the worst of the weather is concerned.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
A lot of Ely's in the forecast. I was out
of cracker practice last night at Hamilton Park and it
was just better. It just cuts through you. It was
like the middle of May.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Yeah, easterly is are you know, they're not the best
wind direction and a number of regions unless you live
on the west coast and it's like a reverse Noll Western.
But yeah, the easterlies are coming in. And you know
I've been talking about Larnin. You're off and on since winter.
It's now weather Us at the moment. Larminia is expected
to day for the rest of summer. And this is
(05:03):
the first week where the weather pattern has looked like
La Nina in New Zealand, where we've got easterlies everywhere
around the country. And like I say, a possible tropical
cyclone or just a tropical depression dropping down. It's sort
of moderate chance that it will become a cyclone north
of the country and then it falls apart here it
changes into a new system, and like I say, it
(05:23):
could be quite a large low. Large I always say
large loads are like large human beings, right. Some can
be very tough and strong with muscles. Others can be
kind of lazier and larger. Sorry to the listeners if
anyone's defended by that, But the.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Bigger bind individuals lightless south I'll give you your.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Time, yeah, and myself at the moment after summer. But
basically I say that because sometimes people see a large lower,
they hear of a large low, and they think of
it as been like you know, like your black of
weather systems, But sometimes they're just kind of large and
lazy and they don't really do a lot of severe weather,
but they produce low pressure everywhere and that produces instability,
(06:00):
which means you can get thunderstorms and rain areas and
kind of messy sort of forecast. So that's what we're
monitoring next week. I think for you guys, it's not
looking like severe weather, but the low is possibly going
to affect our weather pattern for quite a large part
of the rest of January. So we're just sort of
waiting to see where that goes. But the high pressure
zones are closest to Southland more than they are to
(06:22):
Northland and Auckland, so there's a little positive spin on
it for you.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
As far as our Mania, Almino or Laminia, none of
that comes into the equation.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
I mean, Lamina is around, and like I say, it's
kind of peaking probably about now, which is why we're
getting these loads. But at the same time, this time
of the year is when we get tropical lows. You know,
we're going into the real peak of the cyclone season
right now to kind of the end of March. So
this is the time of year that we get tropical
cyclones forming, you know, like I said, potential one then
(06:53):
New Caledonia next week, and then there also might be
another one over on the western side of Australia up
near Brew of things to keep an eye on. I mean,
the one over in western Australia doesn't pose a threat
to New Zealand, but it might drop down south of Australia.
Some of the long range maps, so staying as a
low all the way through the desert, popping out over
the southern part of Australia, and that could end up
(07:14):
coming to New Zealand just as a rain maker. Nothing.
You know, there won't be a cyclone at all by then,
just be some rain, but yeah, could affect us. So
there's a lot of low pressure in the tropics trying
to drop southwards. But at the same time the other
theme is high pressure zones both south of Australia and
mostly south of New Zealand and so that means there
will still be some cold injections. But you guys, perhaps
(07:37):
one of the regions more likely to get some sunny,
dry days more so than certainly the North Island neighbors
are going to be seen.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
Absolutely feel dun kind of weather watch. You always appreciate
your time on the muster.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
You're welcome, appreciate it, so duncan of weather watch.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Up next, Andrew Cocklin from It is Fits. You're listening
to the muster
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