March 11, 2026 • 8 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch looks at the southern seven day forecast in detail.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome back to the muster. It's time to catch up
with there Risen with a man Phil Duncan of We
the Watch Elanas Morrisett. Feel free to give us a
(00:33):
shout out if you're listening. Good on your feel How
are you?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
I'm very good, mister Muir. How are you?
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Yeah, pretty good. It's been well, not too bad with
the wise. It's settled down over the past couple of days.
But I was up in parts of northern Southland over
the week hid and I'll tell you what it was
rather dry.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Yeah. We are seeing the dry conditions expand out of
central Otago. You know, there are parts of Southland that
are pretty good from a rainfall point of view, and
then patches that are drying out, And in fact, the
drying out patches is a nationwide issue. I just literally
this morning wrote my column for the Farmer's Weekly newspaper
for next week, and the columns all about sort of
(01:12):
the last month or so of weather and what we've
been experiencing. And one of the things that stood out
to me was the fact that there are a number
of regions that are now quite dry in both main islands,
especially in the North Island. But the South Island, South
Canterbury Otago area, along with Nelson and Marlborough, they're all
quite a lot drier than usual at the moment. And
then of course that is now spreading around parts of
(01:34):
Southland as well. So it's but I still think Southland
overall is doing pretty good when you compare it to
other regions.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
At least the only parts of the region have been dry.
I just reiterate that as well. It's pain intriguing, yeah,
I mean.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
The temperature one that's the one that stood out to
me more than anything, is that the nationwide temperatures. So
with the exception of Stuart Island and Fijordland not exactly
our two biggest farming regions, everywhere in New Zealand has
been colder than average over the last couple of weeks. Everywhere,
(02:08):
and not even by a small amount, Like most of
the North Island was two degrees below average. And that
might not sound like much, but to give you an
idea of when you're talking about trends of average temperatures,
the key only goes up to two degrees either way
above or below average. So when you're seeing most of
the North Island that the highest you know on the
key on the knee was maps that does say something.
(02:32):
So the North Island a couple of degrees below average
almost everywhere, the South Island a lot of places over
a degree below normal, if not two degrees in some areas.
Most of that is actually in the top half of
the island. So the further south you go in New
Zealand over the last month, the closer you've been to
more normal temperatures. But even like Southland's been below average,
(02:53):
which I'm sure is no shock to you, but not
as much as say other parts of the country. So
it's been you know, we had a cloud gloomy January.
We've had temperatures down nationwide over the last month, and
we're seeing rainfall taper off. So it's going into a
bit of a drier, coolest start to autumn this year
in a general sort of sense.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
So we're just going to see a continuation for the
next couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Yeah, I don't really see any sort of major swings
just yet. So we've got a warm day today, you
guys are around the mid twenties today. Tomorrow cools down
a wee bit eighteen seventeen Saturday, sixteen Sunday, so sort
of a gradual slide there, but the overnight lows, you know,
ten degrees tonight, seven degrees tomorrow, eleven Saturday, eleven Sunday, ten, Monday,
(03:41):
eleven Tuesday. These are warm nights. It does drop next week,
you know, maybe next Friday could be only fourteen as
a maximum and a lower five. So I see no
frosts in the next week ahead. I see a lot
of temperatures that are maximum temperatures in the mid to
late teen and overnight lows are out of the frost zone.
(04:03):
And a few showers in the mix as well. Not
huge amounts of rain, but you know, frequent sort of
showers or spits of rain are in the forecast every
day or two, and so that'll add up to maybe
ten or twenty millimeters over the coming ten days. So
it's probably a pretty good forecast.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
Yeah, pretty much just wrapped up what we've had for
the past three or four months here, is that the
weather is not going to change over the next couple
of weeks.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Yeah, exactly, And that's really what we're seeing long range,
a lot of high pressure coming out of Australia. You know,
the high pressure zones are more powerful than they were
a month ago, two months ago, so the air pressure
back in sort of January, we get a lot of
high pressure systems that were only you know, ten sixteen,
ten nineteen hector bascals. Now they're ten twenty eight, ten thirty,
(04:49):
so they're more powerful and that means that you know
you have a they will last longer the higher the
air pressure usually, so you end up with a with
more days that are dry and more days that are
slight warmer. So we're in a fairly settled weather pattern.
I do think we have more severe weather risks as
we go through this month, though. There's a possible tropical
(05:10):
cyclone next week in the Coral Sea that might end
up coming into the New Zealand area towards the end
of the month, not as a tropical cyclone, but just
maybe as a large low. And there might also be
a couple of cold fronts. Well, there will be a
couple of cold fronts in the mix, but these are
not cold fronts that are going right up the whole country,
which means Southland's only going to be brushed by them
rather than getting some major blast within the next ten days.
(05:33):
So it's actually a pretty good forecast, bit of a
balancing act maybe after what we had at the start
of the year.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
We're saying the days get shorter at the moment, as
you'd expect for the middle of March. But like so
Frost's we had one earlier on in the week. There's
nothing in the forecast suggesting we're going to see more.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Don't see any frosts in the next ten days. The
closest we get is Friday, the twentieth of March. Overnight
low of five, So that's got some frost piten, but
not very strong. That's it. Yeah, no frost risk at
this stage showing up. You know, the overnight temperatures, like
I say, we've got of the next ten days, half
(06:10):
of them are double digit overnight temperatures. So really that's
pretty mild considering we are at that time of year.
You know, next Saturday, the twenty first of March, that
is the spring sorry, the autumn equinox, and so that
means that the days and the nights are equal length.
That's the proper official kind of line in the sand
for the end of the summer, were the pattern. So
(06:31):
we are at that time of year, so we might
see things changing quite quickly once we get past next weekend.
But for now, yeah, it's a pretty good end to
what has been a bit of a weird summer. I mean,
it's it depends on how you measure summer as well,
if you go with the first of a month or
the equinox dates. Both dates count. But from our birth
(06:52):
trip around the sun and our cycle of daylight, yeah,
we're coming to the end of summer and more of
an official start to the autumn weather pat and once
we get to next weekend, the twenty first of March.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
One final question for you, Phil, What is the difference
between being partly cloudy and mainly fine.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Partly cloudy? There isn't much. There are two words to
say the same.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Thing, so there's no difference whatsoever. It's just pretty much terminology.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Partly cloudy means that it's mostly sunny with a few clouds.
Partly sunny means that it's mostly cloudy with a few
sunny spells. It's one of those funny things that every
now and then I see it and I think, gosh,
that's ridiculous, like but it's just a different way of
saying the same things that you don't see the same
words day after day after day.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
It's one of the great con jobs you we the
guys have minaged to concoct David time, right, that's right.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
My favorite one, the one that I like to use
is a mix of sun and cloud you do. I
think that's a great term. It just sums it up.
It means yeah so, and people understand what it is.
Whereas you're right, partly cloudy, partly sunny, people get confused
about how much of those parts are cloudy or sunny.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
And singles always Pheil Duncan, You're a wealth of knowledge
on the weather, which is highly relevant to down here
in the South. Enjoy the weekend. We will catch up
with you Friday next week.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
You too, mate.
Speaker 3 (08:09):
Thank you, Phil Duncan of a weather watch. Before we
wrap up, Logan Sevy out of the South and Tribune
Welcome back to the muster. It's time to catch up
with there Risen with a man Phil Duncan of We
the Watch Elanas Morrisett. Feel free to give us a
(00:33):
shout out if you're listening. Good on your feel How
are you?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
I'm very good, mister Muir. How are you?
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Yeah, pretty good. It's been well, not too bad with
the wise. It's settled down over the past couple of days.
But I was up in parts of northern Southland over
the week hid and I'll tell you what it was
rather dry.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Yeah. We are seeing the dry conditions expand out of
central Otago. You know, there are parts of Southland that
are pretty good from a rainfall point of view, and
then patches that are drying out, And in fact, the
drying out patches is a nationwide issue. I just literally
this morning wrote my column for the Farmer's Weekly newspaper
for next week, and the columns all about sort of
(01:12):
the last month or so of weather and what we've
been experiencing. And one of the things that stood out
to me was the fact that there are a number
of regions that are now quite dry in both main islands,
especially in the North Island. But the South Island, South
Canterbury Otago area, along with Nelson and Marlborough, they're all
quite a lot drier than usual at the moment. And
then of course that is now spreading around parts of
(01:34):
Southland as well. So it's but I still think Southland
overall is doing pretty good when you compare it to
other regions.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
At least the only parts of the region have been dry.
I just reiterate that as well. It's pain intriguing, yeah,
I mean.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
The temperature one that's the one that stood out to
me more than anything, is that the nationwide temperatures. So
with the exception of Stuart Island and Fijordland not exactly
our two biggest farming regions, everywhere in New Zealand has
been colder than average over the last couple of weeks. Everywhere,
(02:08):
and not even by a small amount, Like most of
the North Island was two degrees below average. And that
might not sound like much, but to give you an
idea of when you're talking about trends of average temperatures,
the key only goes up to two degrees either way
above or below average. So when you're seeing most of
the North Island that the highest you know on the
key on the knee was maps that does say something.
(02:32):
So the North Island a couple of degrees below average
almost everywhere, the South Island a lot of places over
a degree below normal, if not two degrees in some areas.
Most of that is actually in the top half of
the island. So the further south you go in New
Zealand over the last month, the closer you've been to
more normal temperatures. But even like Southland's been below average,
(02:53):
which I'm sure is no shock to you, but not
as much as say other parts of the country. So
it's been you know, we had a cloud gloomy January.
We've had temperatures down nationwide over the last month, and
we're seeing rainfall taper off. So it's going into a
bit of a drier, coolest start to autumn this year
in a general sort of sense.
Speaker 3 (03:13):
So we're just going to see a continuation for the
next couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Yeah, I don't really see any sort of major swings
just yet. So we've got a warm day today, you
guys are around the mid twenties today. Tomorrow cools down
a wee bit eighteen seventeen Saturday, sixteen Sunday, so sort
of a gradual slide there, but the overnight lows, you know,
ten degrees tonight, seven degrees tomorrow, eleven Saturday, eleven Sunday, ten, Monday,
(03:41):
eleven Tuesday. These are warm nights. It does drop next week,
you know, maybe next Friday could be only fourteen as
a maximum and a lower five. So I see no
frosts in the next week ahead. I see a lot
of temperatures that are maximum temperatures in the mid to
late teen and overnight lows are out of the frost zone.
(04:03):
And a few showers in the mix as well. Not
huge amounts of rain, but you know, frequent sort of
showers or spits of rain are in the forecast every
day or two, and so that'll add up to maybe
ten or twenty millimeters over the coming ten days. So
it's probably a pretty good forecast.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
Yeah, pretty much just wrapped up what we've had for
the past three or four months here, is that the
weather is not going to change over the next couple
of weeks.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Yeah, exactly, And that's really what we're seeing long range,
a lot of high pressure coming out of Australia. You know,
the high pressure zones are more powerful than they were
a month ago, two months ago, so the air pressure
back in sort of January, we get a lot of
high pressure systems that were only you know, ten sixteen,
ten nineteen hector bascals. Now they're ten twenty eight, ten thirty,
(04:49):
so they're more powerful and that means that you know
you have a they will last longer the higher the
air pressure usually, so you end up with a with
more days that are dry and more days that are
slight warmer. So we're in a fairly settled weather pattern.
I do think we have more severe weather risks as
we go through this month, though. There's a possible tropical
(05:10):
cyclone next week in the Coral Sea that might end
up coming into the New Zealand area towards the end
of the month, not as a tropical cyclone, but just
maybe as a large low. And there might also be
a couple of cold fronts. Well, there will be a
couple of cold fronts in the mix, but these are
not cold fronts that are going right up the whole country,
which means Southland's only going to be brushed by them
rather than getting some major blast within the next ten days.
(05:33):
So it's actually a pretty good forecast, bit of a
balancing act maybe after what we had at the start
of the year.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
We're saying the days get shorter at the moment, as
you'd expect for the middle of March. But like so
Frost's we had one earlier on in the week. There's
nothing in the forecast suggesting we're going to see more.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Don't see any frosts in the next ten days. The
closest we get is Friday, the twentieth of March. Overnight
low of five, So that's got some frost piten, but
not very strong. That's it. Yeah, no frost risk at
this stage showing up. You know, the overnight temperatures, like
I say, we've got of the next ten days, half
(06:10):
of them are double digit overnight temperatures. So really that's
pretty mild considering we are at that time of year.
You know, next Saturday, the twenty first of March, that
is the spring sorry, the autumn equinox, and so that
means that the days and the nights are equal length.
That's the proper official kind of line in the sand
for the end of the summer, were the pattern. So
(06:31):
we are at that time of year, so we might
see things changing quite quickly once we get past next weekend.
But for now, yeah, it's a pretty good end to
what has been a bit of a weird summer. I mean,
it's it depends on how you measure summer as well,
if you go with the first of a month or
the equinox dates. Both dates count. But from our birth
(06:52):
trip around the sun and our cycle of daylight, yeah,
we're coming to the end of summer and more of
an official start to the autumn weather pat and once
we get to next weekend, the twenty first of March.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
One final question for you, Phil, What is the difference
between being partly cloudy and mainly fine.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Partly cloudy? There isn't much. There are two words to
say the same.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Thing, so there's no difference whatsoever. It's just pretty much terminology.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Partly cloudy means that it's mostly sunny with a few clouds.
Partly sunny means that it's mostly cloudy with a few
sunny spells. It's one of those funny things that every
now and then I see it and I think, gosh,
that's ridiculous, like but it's just a different way of
saying the same things that you don't see the same
words day after day after day.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
It's one of the great con jobs you we the
guys have minaged to concoct David time, right, that's right.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
My favorite one, the one that I like to use
is a mix of sun and cloud you do. I
think that's a great term. It just sums it up.
It means yeah so, and people understand what it is.
Whereas you're right, partly cloudy, partly sunny, people get confused
about how much of those parts are cloudy or sunny.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
And singles always Pheil Duncan, You're a wealth of knowledge
on the weather, which is highly relevant to down here
in the South. Enjoy the weekend. We will catch up
with you Friday next week.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
You too, mate.
Speaker 3 (08:09):
Thank you, Phil Duncan of a weather watch. Before we
wrap up, Logan Sevy out of the South and Tribune
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