May 14, 2026 • 8 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch gives a detailed southern forecast for the next seven days.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
It starts chance once again at this time to catch
up with Phil Duncan of weather Watch. Good afternoon, Phil.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Duncan, goody, goody, How are you going very well?
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Straight off the bat. We're not getting any frosts here
and Gord, I believe parts of the region are well.
When are we going to start seeing a bit more
of a cooler cycle here in the south.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
You're going to start singing it this weekend. Temperatures drop
quite a bit this weekend and it could be really
gloomy in some areas because this folk forecast as well
as frost at the same time, and so you know,
you get the frost develop and then the fold coming
in over the top of it. That's forecast around Sunday
and Monday. The fog there couldn't be fog earlier than that.
(01:05):
You might get some tonight tomorrow, but yeah, Sunday Monday's
got the higher risk of getting that fog coming back
through again. So it's I think we'll there'll be foggy
patches around this weekend and to kick off next week.
The frost risk tonight's low is two, so but there
could be cloud around and tends on when that fog forms.
(01:28):
But certainly there's there's certainly the chance of some frost
this weekend because the overnight lows dropped to one degree
Saturday night in Gore, which means it'll be minus something
in the in the areas around you, and Sunday night
down to zero, Monday night down to minus one. So
we've got lower temperatures and they don't bounce back up
again till Wednesday next week. That's when you've got an
(01:49):
overnight low of seven. Thursday next week overnight low of eight,
and when we talk a week from now, overnight low
of six. So the temperatures do lift up next week.
And the reason for this weather we've got this big
anticyclone high pressure moving across the country. It's pretty powerful.
The air pressure is about ten thirty eight to ten
forty hector pascals. That's pretty powerful and so that just
(02:11):
keeps things mostly dry. But as the high moves from
over in the Tasman and over to the east coast,
that's when you start to get a very slight change
in the airflow of more of a northerly. Now you
don't feel that because there's no wind really, but the
general airflow when it's northerly had a little bit more
moisture in it, and so you end up getting these
(02:32):
foggy areas and these cloudy areas. So I do think
unless the fog burns off on Monday, you know, pretty promptly,
I think you are looking at some fairly cloudy weather
coming through over the next several days. So it'll be
off and on. Hopefully will get some afternoon sun or
some evening clear spells in there, but it does look
as though, yeah, fairly cloudy kind of week coming up,
(02:54):
and not much in the way of wet weather because
of all that high pressure. So it won't until the
high moves off New Zealand, which it doesn't look like
that'll happen till the end of next week, round Thursday
or Friday or Saturday and that sort of time frame.
That's when I think you'll get a bit of a
cold front coming through. Temperatures will drop again for next
weekend with single digit daytime highs and probably a few
(03:17):
showers around. But it doesn't look like much. I'm seeing
probably around ten millimeters, you know, give or take a
few millimeters.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Yeah, that's not bad for the middle of May, but
I mean likes of this morning six degrees at daylight.
But these days are about to end.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
Yeah, the temperature drops tonight. You definitely notice that the
temperature tonight will be down, and it's down all the
way through till Wednesday night next week. So the high
pressure zone is really big and it's keeping almost all
of New Zealand dry. The only areas that are getting
frequent showers of the eastern side of the North Island
from sort of wide it up er up to especially
northern Hawks Bay and Gisbon, and then also on the
(03:53):
eastern side of Northland. But if you further south of that,
if you're in places like Auckland and why Cuts of
Taranaki and and if you're a Nelson and Merlbourne, the
west coast, Canterbury and Otago, all of those areas are
looking quite sunny other than that fog wisk that could
be around. So coastal areas might be a little cloudy,
but inland areas, plenty of sunshine, plenty of frost, and
(04:15):
like I say, there could be foggy areas and sometimes
it doesn't happen as much in Southland. We seem to
capture it a bit better in Southland, but further inland,
once you're into Otago, and once you're in the high
country of Canterbury. You can sometimes have a sun icon
and it seems like beautiful sunny weekend and you get
that inversion layer of fog which is very localized and
(04:38):
doesn't clear away for a few days. So I'm hoping
that doesn't happen. But because most people don't like that
that weather. Fog is one of those things that some
people love, but usually when it drags on, they don't
like it after a while because very quickly you get
tired of it. But a foggy morning can be quite nice,
sort of peaceful and gentle and quiet. But then yeah,
if it's still there at two in the afternoon, you
(05:00):
sort of feel a bit differently about it.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Well, this is pretty good, all things considered, because we're
going into winter grazing season. The animals are just starting
on crops or going onto the rotations and the panics,
and if there's no rain about, they're not going to
leave a mess. So there's one positive.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Yeah, definitely, it's a positive for a number of places.
You know, from a soil moisture point of view, Southland's
and a pretty good set up at the moment a
little further north up in Otago, especially Eastern Otago, coastal
Otago and parts of Canterbury like the Canterbury Plains and
around christ Church, those areas are drier than usual at
the moment, so obviously they're just going to get dryer
(05:34):
in the coming week. The North Island, there are a
couple of pockets of dry just here and there, but
it's pretty pretty good actually going into this dry spell
we're in and a lot of people are asking me,
is this al Nino. It's not yet, We're still in neutral.
The latest forecast does still say that al Nino is
going to develop this winter, but how that affects New
(05:56):
Zealand is still a bit of a question mark. But
usually we get a lot of high pressure in the
town Sea and that encourages westerly winds and that can
dry out Southland and it can dry out obviously the
eastern side of the country to begin with. So that's
what we'll be looking for going into the next month
or two, just how dry some of these places become.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
Just finally as well, I found this interesting a snap
from a news site this week. Auckland is in for
its first cold snap of the year, with single digit
temperatures forecast for the next week, making the city feel
its chilliest since early spring. The city of Sales is
and for temperatures as low as seven degrees of Temperatures
under ten degrees expected to stick around for aids consecutive days.
(06:38):
Holy Hecker, Phil, how will you cope?
Speaker 2 (06:40):
I know, it's I'm so glad that that's become a
major headline, and you know, I appreciate the empathy. I mean,
it's funny. I mean I get I sort of understand why.
You know, it's our biggest city and it's it's the
coldest spell we've had. But yeah, if you're outside of
the city and you're looking at that headline, you just laugh,
don't you, because it is kind of funny. And we're
(07:01):
actually having really beautiful weather because our south we've got
a southeasterly wind, which is why the eastern side of
the North Island is pretty gloomy and cold and they've
got showers and it's not very pleasant. But if you're
on the other side of the ranges, on the western
side that covers you know, half of Northland, all of Auckland,
waycutou right down to parts of Taranaki Manahatu. All of
(07:22):
those areas have brilliantly beautifully sunny weather, unless, of course
you got the fog in some of those valleys and
some of those areas. But generally speaking, there's a lot
of sunny weather around and the South Islands no different.
There's some coastal cloud especially in Southland and coastal Otago.
Some of that might be breaking up now, but yeah,
we're going to be seeing these cloudy periods and coastal
(07:43):
areas off and on over the next week. High pressure
at this time of the year, you get a cold night,
light winds, and the sea temperatures are much warmer than
the air temperature is, so it ends up making this
cloud and it can be gloomy and it's called anti
cyclonic gloom. And if you live on the western side
of New Zealand but also Southland gets it too, it
can sord of hang around for quite a while. It
(08:04):
would be kind of gloomy for days on end.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
Phil Duncan of weather Watch, nothing gloomy about your weather
forecast down here in the South with your biggest fans.
Keep out the fantastic work.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Thank you mate. Appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
Phil Duncan of weather Watch go online and find his
excellent website too and a zapp and find out what
you need to route the weather for the next seven days.
Here in the South, Morgan Green of India's Fits. We
catch up next
It starts chance once again at this time to catch
up with Phil Duncan of weather Watch. Good afternoon, Phil.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Duncan, goody, goody, How are you going very well?
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Straight off the bat. We're not getting any frosts here
and Gord, I believe parts of the region are well.
When are we going to start seeing a bit more
of a cooler cycle here in the south.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
You're going to start singing it this weekend. Temperatures drop
quite a bit this weekend and it could be really
gloomy in some areas because this folk forecast as well
as frost at the same time, and so you know,
you get the frost develop and then the fold coming
in over the top of it. That's forecast around Sunday
and Monday. The fog there couldn't be fog earlier than that.
(01:05):
You might get some tonight tomorrow, but yeah, Sunday Monday's
got the higher risk of getting that fog coming back
through again. So it's I think we'll there'll be foggy
patches around this weekend and to kick off next week.
The frost risk tonight's low is two, so but there
could be cloud around and tends on when that fog forms.
(01:28):
But certainly there's there's certainly the chance of some frost
this weekend because the overnight lows dropped to one degree
Saturday night in Gore, which means it'll be minus something
in the in the areas around you, and Sunday night
down to zero, Monday night down to minus one. So
we've got lower temperatures and they don't bounce back up
again till Wednesday next week. That's when you've got an
(01:49):
overnight low of seven. Thursday next week overnight low of eight,
and when we talk a week from now, overnight low
of six. So the temperatures do lift up next week.
And the reason for this weather we've got this big
anticyclone high pressure moving across the country. It's pretty powerful.
The air pressure is about ten thirty eight to ten
forty hector pascals. That's pretty powerful and so that just
(02:11):
keeps things mostly dry. But as the high moves from
over in the Tasman and over to the east coast,
that's when you start to get a very slight change
in the airflow of more of a northerly. Now you
don't feel that because there's no wind really, but the
general airflow when it's northerly had a little bit more
moisture in it, and so you end up getting these
(02:32):
foggy areas and these cloudy areas. So I do think
unless the fog burns off on Monday, you know, pretty promptly,
I think you are looking at some fairly cloudy weather
coming through over the next several days. So it'll be
off and on. Hopefully will get some afternoon sun or
some evening clear spells in there, but it does look
as though, yeah, fairly cloudy kind of week coming up,
(02:54):
and not much in the way of wet weather because
of all that high pressure. So it won't until the
high moves off New Zealand, which it doesn't look like
that'll happen till the end of next week, round Thursday
or Friday or Saturday and that sort of time frame.
That's when I think you'll get a bit of a
cold front coming through. Temperatures will drop again for next
weekend with single digit daytime highs and probably a few
(03:17):
showers around. But it doesn't look like much. I'm seeing
probably around ten millimeters, you know, give or take a
few millimeters.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Yeah, that's not bad for the middle of May, but
I mean likes of this morning six degrees at daylight.
But these days are about to end.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
Yeah, the temperature drops tonight. You definitely notice that the
temperature tonight will be down, and it's down all the
way through till Wednesday night next week. So the high
pressure zone is really big and it's keeping almost all
of New Zealand dry. The only areas that are getting
frequent showers of the eastern side of the North Island
from sort of wide it up er up to especially
northern Hawks Bay and Gisbon, and then also on the
(03:53):
eastern side of Northland. But if you further south of that,
if you're in places like Auckland and why Cuts of
Taranaki and and if you're a Nelson and Merlbourne, the
west coast, Canterbury and Otago, all of those areas are
looking quite sunny other than that fog wisk that could
be around. So coastal areas might be a little cloudy,
but inland areas, plenty of sunshine, plenty of frost, and
(04:15):
like I say, there could be foggy areas and sometimes
it doesn't happen as much in Southland. We seem to
capture it a bit better in Southland, but further inland,
once you're into Otago, and once you're in the high
country of Canterbury. You can sometimes have a sun icon
and it seems like beautiful sunny weekend and you get
that inversion layer of fog which is very localized and
(04:38):
doesn't clear away for a few days. So I'm hoping
that doesn't happen. But because most people don't like that
that weather. Fog is one of those things that some
people love, but usually when it drags on, they don't
like it after a while because very quickly you get
tired of it. But a foggy morning can be quite nice,
sort of peaceful and gentle and quiet. But then yeah,
if it's still there at two in the afternoon, you
(05:00):
sort of feel a bit differently about it.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Well, this is pretty good, all things considered, because we're
going into winter grazing season. The animals are just starting
on crops or going onto the rotations and the panics,
and if there's no rain about, they're not going to
leave a mess. So there's one positive.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Yeah, definitely, it's a positive for a number of places.
You know, from a soil moisture point of view, Southland's
and a pretty good set up at the moment a
little further north up in Otago, especially Eastern Otago, coastal
Otago and parts of Canterbury like the Canterbury Plains and
around christ Church, those areas are drier than usual at
the moment, so obviously they're just going to get dryer
(05:34):
in the coming week. The North Island, there are a
couple of pockets of dry just here and there, but
it's pretty pretty good actually going into this dry spell
we're in and a lot of people are asking me,
is this al Nino. It's not yet, We're still in neutral.
The latest forecast does still say that al Nino is
going to develop this winter, but how that affects New
(05:56):
Zealand is still a bit of a question mark. But
usually we get a lot of high pressure in the
town Sea and that encourages westerly winds and that can
dry out Southland and it can dry out obviously the
eastern side of the country to begin with. So that's
what we'll be looking for going into the next month
or two, just how dry some of these places become.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
Just finally as well, I found this interesting a snap
from a news site this week. Auckland is in for
its first cold snap of the year, with single digit
temperatures forecast for the next week, making the city feel
its chilliest since early spring. The city of Sales is
and for temperatures as low as seven degrees of Temperatures
under ten degrees expected to stick around for aids consecutive days.
(06:38):
Holy Hecker, Phil, how will you cope?
Speaker 2 (06:40):
I know, it's I'm so glad that that's become a
major headline, and you know, I appreciate the empathy. I mean,
it's funny. I mean I get I sort of understand why.
You know, it's our biggest city and it's it's the
coldest spell we've had. But yeah, if you're outside of
the city and you're looking at that headline, you just laugh,
don't you, because it is kind of funny. And we're
(07:01):
actually having really beautiful weather because our south we've got
a southeasterly wind, which is why the eastern side of
the North Island is pretty gloomy and cold and they've
got showers and it's not very pleasant. But if you're
on the other side of the ranges, on the western
side that covers you know, half of Northland, all of Auckland,
waycutou right down to parts of Taranaki Manahatu. All of
(07:22):
those areas have brilliantly beautifully sunny weather, unless, of course
you got the fog in some of those valleys and
some of those areas. But generally speaking, there's a lot
of sunny weather around and the South Islands no different.
There's some coastal cloud especially in Southland and coastal Otago.
Some of that might be breaking up now, but yeah,
we're going to be seeing these cloudy periods and coastal
(07:43):
areas off and on over the next week. High pressure
at this time of the year, you get a cold night,
light winds, and the sea temperatures are much warmer than
the air temperature is, so it ends up making this
cloud and it can be gloomy and it's called anti
cyclonic gloom. And if you live on the western side
of New Zealand but also Southland gets it too, it
can sord of hang around for quite a while. It
(08:04):
would be kind of gloomy for days on end.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
Phil Duncan of weather Watch, nothing gloomy about your weather
forecast down here in the South with your biggest fans.
Keep out the fantastic work.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Thank you mate. Appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
Phil Duncan of weather Watch go online and find his
excellent website too and a zapp and find out what
you need to route the weather for the next seven days.
Here in the South, Morgan Green of India's Fits. We
catch up next
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