June 11, 2026 • 8 mins
Phil Duncan looks at the southern forecast for the next seven days.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome back to the muster on Hakanui. It is time
for Phil Duncan and weather watch. Good afternoon, Phil Duncan.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Good afternoon, mister Murror.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Hell's Auckland.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
It is cloudy and gloomy, the opposite of Gore. Yeah,
there you go.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Look, we're just seeing this continuation of the run of
weather we've had for the past Let's be honest, the
last three or four weeks. When are we going to
start seeing this winter cycle? I ask you every week
because it's a relevant question.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
I think we're getting more into it now. You know,
we've just had another cold front passed through overnight, and
we've got a cold earth front coming through on Sunday
night and Monday, and so we are starting to see
a drop in temperatures. It's still not majorly cold though.
And you know, if you look at Sunday's maximum around
fifteen or sixteen degrees, that's pretty mild. Overnight low of
(01:17):
seven when you wake up on Monday, but Monday's daytime
temperature and Tuesday and Wednesday they're all around the eight
nine degree mark as maximum and overnight low on Monday
night will be minus two. So that's getting down some
places will be minus three or minus four, so it's
gonna be a bit cold going into the start of
next week. But yeah, it's not massively cold because a
(01:39):
lot of our air flows, despite having southerly and south
westerly flows coming into the country, it's not coming from Antarctica.
It's coming sort of more so from south of Tasmania,
and so it is cold, but it's not freezing cold.
It's not like that bitter southerly wind that you can
get when it comes straight off Antarctica. And so at
the moment, yeah, we're going into winter very slow. We're
(02:00):
not sort of seeing a big burst of major snow
events and major frosts.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
We're looking at the middle of June with an overnight
high well for a day high of sixteen or fifteen
and a low of seven. That is crazy.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Yeah, it's pretty mild, and that's because we're on we're
sort of on the edge of a lot of high pressure,
and that is a classical Neto trait to have high
pressure out over the Tasman and we're on the edge
of it. So we don't necessarily have a lot of
perfectly sunny days and we get these cooler winds and
these cold fronts. But the cold fronts like the one
that's come through today we're moving up the South Island today.
(02:35):
Most of the rain fell in Southland, Otago and Canterbury,
not over on the west coast. And so that's because
further west you go, the more you're running into high pressure.
So these fronts kind of flick up around the side
of the country and it brings a little bit of
rain into some regions, but it's not you know that
look you look at the radar sort of fell apart
for Canterbury, so they didn't get the rain that they
(02:56):
might need, you know, the most one of the driest
parts of the country at and so as we go
into the next few months ahead, that might be sort
of our kind of normal weather pattern. But in saying that,
you know, we're a small country compared to the size
of high pressure and low pressure zones. So all it
takes is just a little shape change and suddenly you've
got you know, rain setting in, or you've got much
(03:19):
colder weather coming through. So it doesn't you know, just
because al Nino is being announced doesn't mean that suddenly
we you know, there's a flick of a switch. In fact,
we've already been gradually going into it the last couple
of months, and that's why May and June have so
far have not been brutally cold. But we are now
seeing a colder airflow coming in.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
Okay, So when are we going to see a continual
run of frost because they've been lacking.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Yeah, I don't know yet. At the moment, we are
certainly getting more frosty weather in the forecast, and yesterday
being Thursday, we did have frost that went up, you know,
north of Auckland. They were very light, but there were
some frost going north of there, but pretty pretty solid
cross across Waikato region for field days. So we are
getting kind of a mixture of conditions around New Zealand.
(04:07):
Frosty weather has been absent in the North Island for
a lot of places so far this year. All it
takes is for our weather to be a couple of
degrees warmer. You know, you often hear about when they're
talking about the climate and climate change. You often hear
climate forecasters and scientists saying, you know, the sea temperatures
or the air temperatures are up by a degree or two,
(04:27):
and in your head you sort of go oh, that's
not noticeable, is it, But you notice it at this
time of the year because you know whether it's plus
two or minus one. That's a difference between having a
solid frost or just a little bit of ice on
the tops of the vehicles.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
Yeah, certainly a different scenario we're facing at the moment
now this our Nino watch. I heard it being called
the super al Nino from Australian media this morning. Are
we seeing anything different? We're still too far out to
get an understanding.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
It'll take some time for us to work out what
our new web pattern will be. Now. It's a little
bit like when a cyclone is coming, right, So a
tropical cyclone you can see in the long range map
sometimes two weeks out that a cyclone's going to form,
and so the fact that that factor that into the
forecast for two weeks, then it gets announced to get
(05:18):
a name, and then we track it in sort of
a lot more detail. Our Nino and Landina are a
bit the same. We see them coming and we factor
that into the forecast for the next couple of weeks,
sometimes even a month's out. You can kind of factor
it in. So the fact that it actually gets announced
doesn't change the fact that we've already been seeing it
building and growing. What it does, though, is it gives
(05:39):
us a bit more of a solid forecast to lock in.
And so when you hear the term super al Nino,
what you're hearing is from a whole Pacific wide, what
we call the Pacific basin. It's from that perspective, so
from Australia over to South America, that's what we're looking at.
When you hear that term, when it comes to New
Zealand itself, that's a different kind of way of looking
(06:02):
at it. Well, we'll be seeing how this this very
strong al Nino event across the entire equator region of
the Pacific, especially over on the eastern side of the
Pacific towards the Americas. We'll be looking at that to
see how that affects our weather path here in New Zealand.
So it don't just mean that we've got you know,
extreme conditions coming, but certainly when you're talking about, you know,
(06:24):
the strongest down Nino potentially on record, that's something to
definitely be aware of because it could really alter our
weather path here in New Zealand and Australia and around
the southwest Pacific, and we'll be we'll be knowing that
in more detail in the weeks ahead. It's it's hard
to answer because we're in small country in comparison, as
I said, to wear pressure systems, and so all it
(06:45):
takes is, you know, we can say, yes, it's going
to lean dryer. For inland areas and eastern areas, they
tend to dry out. Spring tends to be windier with
more westerly blowing, and that dries out the east even further.
But if you get one low pressure zone that comes
in with a whole lot of rain and it's a
bit subtropical and it stalls over our small country, that
(07:06):
can suddenly reverse that that super ol Nino kind of outlook.
So the term super our Nino is a very big,
broad stroke kind of way of describing it. It is
looking very significant, but we are still a little bit,
you know, a question mark about what that means for
New Zealand. So the guest advice I can give is
what I've been giving for the last couple of months,
(07:26):
which is preserving water, water conservation in those dry areas,
having plans for as things really do dry out, going
through spring or going through winter going into spring. That's
the concern that I think as weather forecast is that's
what we've got at the moment.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
So Duncan of weather Watch, we always appreciate your time
and the Muster. Enjoy the weekend. Cheers mate, you too,
So Duncan of weather Watch. Every Friday here in the
Muster go follow them on his social channels with a
watch in z get listen to the Muster up next
for me. In his fits, Morgan Green
Welcome back to the muster on Hakanui. It is time
for Phil Duncan and weather watch. Good afternoon, Phil Duncan.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Good afternoon, mister Murror.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Hell's Auckland.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
It is cloudy and gloomy, the opposite of Gore. Yeah,
there you go.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Look, we're just seeing this continuation of the run of
weather we've had for the past Let's be honest, the
last three or four weeks. When are we going to
start seeing this winter cycle? I ask you every week
because it's a relevant question.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
I think we're getting more into it now. You know,
we've just had another cold front passed through overnight, and
we've got a cold earth front coming through on Sunday
night and Monday, and so we are starting to see
a drop in temperatures. It's still not majorly cold though.
And you know, if you look at Sunday's maximum around
fifteen or sixteen degrees, that's pretty mild. Overnight low of
(01:17):
seven when you wake up on Monday, but Monday's daytime
temperature and Tuesday and Wednesday they're all around the eight
nine degree mark as maximum and overnight low on Monday
night will be minus two. So that's getting down some
places will be minus three or minus four, so it's
gonna be a bit cold going into the start of
next week. But yeah, it's not massively cold because a
(01:39):
lot of our air flows, despite having southerly and south
westerly flows coming into the country, it's not coming from Antarctica.
It's coming sort of more so from south of Tasmania,
and so it is cold, but it's not freezing cold.
It's not like that bitter southerly wind that you can
get when it comes straight off Antarctica. And so at
the moment, yeah, we're going into winter very slow. We're
(02:00):
not sort of seeing a big burst of major snow
events and major frosts.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
We're looking at the middle of June with an overnight
high well for a day high of sixteen or fifteen
and a low of seven. That is crazy.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Yeah, it's pretty mild, and that's because we're on we're
sort of on the edge of a lot of high pressure,
and that is a classical Neto trait to have high
pressure out over the Tasman and we're on the edge
of it. So we don't necessarily have a lot of
perfectly sunny days and we get these cooler winds and
these cold fronts. But the cold fronts like the one
that's come through today we're moving up the South Island today.
(02:35):
Most of the rain fell in Southland, Otago and Canterbury,
not over on the west coast. And so that's because
further west you go, the more you're running into high pressure.
So these fronts kind of flick up around the side
of the country and it brings a little bit of
rain into some regions, but it's not you know that
look you look at the radar sort of fell apart
for Canterbury, so they didn't get the rain that they
(02:56):
might need, you know, the most one of the driest
parts of the country at and so as we go
into the next few months ahead, that might be sort
of our kind of normal weather pattern. But in saying that,
you know, we're a small country compared to the size
of high pressure and low pressure zones. So all it
takes is just a little shape change and suddenly you've
got you know, rain setting in, or you've got much
(03:19):
colder weather coming through. So it doesn't you know, just
because al Nino is being announced doesn't mean that suddenly
we you know, there's a flick of a switch. In fact,
we've already been gradually going into it the last couple
of months, and that's why May and June have so
far have not been brutally cold. But we are now
seeing a colder airflow coming in.
Speaker 1 (03:39):
Okay, So when are we going to see a continual
run of frost because they've been lacking.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Yeah, I don't know yet. At the moment, we are
certainly getting more frosty weather in the forecast, and yesterday
being Thursday, we did have frost that went up, you know,
north of Auckland. They were very light, but there were
some frost going north of there, but pretty pretty solid
cross across Waikato region for field days. So we are
getting kind of a mixture of conditions around New Zealand.
(04:07):
Frosty weather has been absent in the North Island for
a lot of places so far this year. All it
takes is for our weather to be a couple of
degrees warmer. You know, you often hear about when they're
talking about the climate and climate change. You often hear
climate forecasters and scientists saying, you know, the sea temperatures
or the air temperatures are up by a degree or two,
(04:27):
and in your head you sort of go oh, that's
not noticeable, is it, But you notice it at this
time of the year because you know whether it's plus
two or minus one. That's a difference between having a
solid frost or just a little bit of ice on
the tops of the vehicles.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
Yeah, certainly a different scenario we're facing at the moment
now this our Nino watch. I heard it being called
the super al Nino from Australian media this morning. Are
we seeing anything different? We're still too far out to
get an understanding.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
It'll take some time for us to work out what
our new web pattern will be. Now. It's a little
bit like when a cyclone is coming, right, So a
tropical cyclone you can see in the long range map
sometimes two weeks out that a cyclone's going to form,
and so the fact that that factor that into the
forecast for two weeks, then it gets announced to get
(05:18):
a name, and then we track it in sort of
a lot more detail. Our Nino and Landina are a
bit the same. We see them coming and we factor
that into the forecast for the next couple of weeks,
sometimes even a month's out. You can kind of factor
it in. So the fact that it actually gets announced
doesn't change the fact that we've already been seeing it
building and growing. What it does, though, is it gives
(05:39):
us a bit more of a solid forecast to lock in.
And so when you hear the term super al Nino,
what you're hearing is from a whole Pacific wide, what
we call the Pacific basin. It's from that perspective, so
from Australia over to South America, that's what we're looking at.
When you hear that term, when it comes to New
Zealand itself, that's a different kind of way of looking
(06:02):
at it. Well, we'll be seeing how this this very
strong al Nino event across the entire equator region of
the Pacific, especially over on the eastern side of the
Pacific towards the Americas. We'll be looking at that to
see how that affects our weather path here in New Zealand.
So it don't just mean that we've got you know,
extreme conditions coming, but certainly when you're talking about, you know,
(06:24):
the strongest down Nino potentially on record, that's something to
definitely be aware of because it could really alter our
weather path here in New Zealand and Australia and around
the southwest Pacific, and we'll be we'll be knowing that
in more detail in the weeks ahead. It's it's hard
to answer because we're in small country in comparison, as
I said, to wear pressure systems, and so all it
(06:45):
takes is, you know, we can say, yes, it's going
to lean dryer. For inland areas and eastern areas, they
tend to dry out. Spring tends to be windier with
more westerly blowing, and that dries out the east even further.
But if you get one low pressure zone that comes
in with a whole lot of rain and it's a
bit subtropical and it stalls over our small country, that
(07:06):
can suddenly reverse that that super ol Nino kind of outlook.
So the term super our Nino is a very big,
broad stroke kind of way of describing it. It is
looking very significant, but we are still a little bit,
you know, a question mark about what that means for
New Zealand. So the guest advice I can give is
what I've been giving for the last couple of months,
(07:26):
which is preserving water, water conservation in those dry areas,
having plans for as things really do dry out, going
through spring or going through winter going into spring. That's
the concern that I think as weather forecast is that's
what we've got at the moment.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
So Duncan of weather Watch, we always appreciate your time
and the Muster. Enjoy the weekend. Cheers mate, you too,
So Duncan of weather Watch. Every Friday here in the
Muster go follow them on his social channels with a
watch in z get listen to the Muster up next
for me. In his fits, Morgan Green
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