July 16, 2026 • 8 mins
Phil Duncan looks at a settled week of weather before a change towards the end of next week.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Brings all the voice to the yard and they're like,
welcome back to the master of the theme today is shakes,
hence the reason we're playing Calise and Milkshake.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Nonetheless, it's time of Phil Duncan from Were to Watch.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
It's a song.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
About a shake, but it's also about milkshakes. Good afternoon, Phil.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
It makes me think of all the dairy farmers with
all the cows rocking deckets forth for a time last night.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
We'll get rid of that for now, but look straight
onto the obvious one. We're going to talk about the
quake last night. I'm centered just off to yar now
that it was a bolt out of the blow. Let's
be honest.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Yeah, you know, it's been a while since we've had
a decent quake. And yeah, to get the tsunami warning
last night that you know, we don't get that very
often in New Zealand, especially if it's a local earthquake.
So ad a good reminder to everybody that we live
in a country that is forever changing, whether it's you know,
earthquakes that left up the sea as we saw around
(01:25):
kai Kuta a few years ago, or whether it's a
landslide or a tsunami or just when we get floods
from storms. You know, our landscape is always changing, and
we know that, we all know that as New Zealanders,
but we forget it. You do forget it when you
go through quiet spyles over a long time. So glad
to see that it wasn't, you know, worse it could
have been.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
So yeah, So in these warnings come out to evacuate,
you don't mark around you evacuate.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Yeah, that's right. I mean, it is one of those
cases of better to be safe than sorry, And so
if you do it, get a tsunami warning, you definitely
have to pay attention to it because even if it
doesn't happen, it is good preparation and normalization of something
that because we don't get them often enough, we don't
treat them like we do weather warnings. You know, when
you get a severe weather warning and you know that
(02:13):
it's going to be really you know, if you're going
to get one hundred and forty kilometer are in our winds,
you're preparing yourself for that. And as much as you can.
Tsunami alerts, you know, warnings, we don't get very many
of them, and so we can quite often dismiss them
and go, oh, it won't be March. It's not going
to be anything. You know that. I do understand that
way of thinking. But at the same time, there's a
(02:33):
reason why at weather Watch we have always jumped in
to the deep end whenever there's excuse the pump, whenever
there is a tsunami warning issue for New Zealand, even
if it's a five centimeter tsunami in the end, that
is still a wall of water. Even at five centimeters,
that's on top of the normal sea level, and that
can cause problems, not too many at that level, but
(02:55):
the ones that go bigger than that, even if they
are only half a meter, that's still actually more than
what you think. So I always think of it as
being like a bit of a flash flood on top
of the sea. You know, It's like this extra layer
that we don't think about. And so whenever there's one
that's in America or Japan or Chile or wherever it is,
it's really good for us to actually normalize a warning.
(03:16):
And by that I mean understand what it is and
do what you're told to do, because one day there
will be a time where we do get a damaging
tsunami that's happened in the past, and in fact, Otago
was one of the worst affected areas in New Zealand
from a tsunami a very long time ago that killed people.
And so over one hundred years ago, a couple hundred
(03:36):
years ago, it might have been actually, you know, so
we do get them and they can be from another
country and usually they often are. Actually, so yeah, good
good learning curve for us all just to be reminded
of what to do and to just keep on your feet.
But really glad that this one was a nothing in
the sense of that tsunami that is.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
Yeah, so what's certainly over the next seven days for
the south will yeah, well back.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
To what I actually know more about.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
Cut it off pretty well.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Oh, thank you. Where the forecasters do actually cover tsunami
because when you think about it, you don't, you know,
Geoette don't make a daily video about earthquakes, and so
we are a source of natural disasters. People come to
us whenever there's a volcanic eruption and ash clouds and
things like that, so we are kind of skilled to
some degree in that area. But when it comes to
(04:21):
the weather, where the forecasters around New Zealand have got
a bit of time to put their feet up because
we don't have a lot of severe weather coming through
over the next I'm going to say six days. I'm
not going to say week. I'll get to that in
a moment. But we do have a pretty settle period
of weather thanks to an enormous area of high pressure
that stretches from the Indian Ocean right across southern Australia
(04:44):
right across the Tasman Sea, over parts of New Zealand.
It'll move around the New Zealand area and then it
carries on out over towards the International Dateline. So in short,
that high pressure belt is about twelve thousand kilometers across
and we are one thousand, six hundred kilometers length wise,
so we are we could set a number of New
(05:05):
Zealands in this high pressure belt. So it's going to
be fairly settled. But as I say, we're on the
edge of the high pressure. So tomorrow you do have
some wet weather coming through. That'll probably come through, and
towards the afternoon and evening bit of a cold front
coming through, so the temperatures drop, so Sunday's colder and
you go back to frost's Sunday night. Monday night warms
(05:27):
up a little bit going into the next week, but
then the end of next week we might be looking
at our first Antarctic southerly of the year, but it
is not yet locked in. It's too messy to lock
in just yet, but it is showing up on the
long range maps. Today, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday are all
dry or mostly dry, so there might be a shower,
(05:49):
but not going to be much mostly dry. That changes
at the end of next week, so around about Thursday
night going into Friday. It doesn't at this stage look
like a major rain event, but there is this cold
front coming through, and some of the long range maps
are showing that the southerly wind is coming off Antarctica
(06:09):
or very close to it, and we actually haven't had
that very much this winter. We've had cold southerly's and
they've brought snow, but we had not had that super
chilled air. Now, when I look at your temperatures, they
don't reflect an Antarctic glass just yet. It shows a
maximum next Friday of eight degrees and next weekend maximum
of eight degrees both Saturday and Sunday. The twenty fifth
(06:31):
and twenty sixth of July, and the overnight temperatures are
around two to four degrees, So it'll just depend on
if that wet weather at the end of next week
and next weekend is occurring when the temperatures drop down
to two degrees at night, that's the part that I'm
looking for. So we might be seeing the chance of
some lower level snow, but it is too far out
(06:51):
to lock in, and we won't know probably until Monday
or Tuesday next week.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
So Samta, just being patient. I'm playing with in front
of you for the next couple of days, going to
frame yea.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
Either way there is. It does look like there will
be a change at some point at the ed of
the next week that will be more unsettled than the
weather pattern we've got at the moment. But yeah, there's
a lot of high pressure, and I know that the
weather is quiet because our weather videos aren't rating as well,
about half the number of viewers at the moment, and
that's always a sign of people have looked at their
local forecast and gone, Okay, there's not nothing to really
(07:23):
see here, but there are a few little things, and
we do have some showers in the mix. There are
some frosts in the mix, probably get a bit of fog.
Patches are possible, although I don't think fog will be widespread,
but there is the chance of some fog around this
Sunday and Monday, or some low cloud around.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
I'm still waiting to hear a weather forecast with a
jingle plays and the forecast and the presenter something goes,
yeah it's good.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
Yeah, yeah, that'd be good. If I could get paid
the same amount of money to do that, I would
do that in a half. But people apparently like me talking.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
So I certainly appreciate your doulcin tones on the masterful
Dunk and out of Were the Watch. Thanks to your
time as always.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
That's right. I hope you have a nice calm weekend.
Shaken not Stard, Phil drunkn of We're the Watch.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Go and follow them on the social media channels doing
a fantastic job every Friday. Here on the Muster Up
next Steve Ellison, out of Bioactive Soils
Brings all the voice to the yard and they're like,
welcome back to the master of the theme today is shakes,
hence the reason we're playing Calise and Milkshake.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Nonetheless, it's time of Phil Duncan from Were to Watch.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
It's a song.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
About a shake, but it's also about milkshakes. Good afternoon, Phil.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
It makes me think of all the dairy farmers with
all the cows rocking deckets forth for a time last night.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
We'll get rid of that for now, but look straight
onto the obvious one. We're going to talk about the
quake last night. I'm centered just off to yar now
that it was a bolt out of the blow. Let's
be honest.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Yeah, you know, it's been a while since we've had
a decent quake. And yeah, to get the tsunami warning
last night that you know, we don't get that very
often in New Zealand, especially if it's a local earthquake.
So ad a good reminder to everybody that we live
in a country that is forever changing, whether it's you know,
earthquakes that left up the sea as we saw around
(01:25):
kai Kuta a few years ago, or whether it's a
landslide or a tsunami or just when we get floods
from storms. You know, our landscape is always changing, and
we know that, we all know that as New Zealanders,
but we forget it. You do forget it when you
go through quiet spyles over a long time. So glad
to see that it wasn't, you know, worse it could
have been.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
So yeah, So in these warnings come out to evacuate,
you don't mark around you evacuate.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Yeah, that's right. I mean, it is one of those
cases of better to be safe than sorry, And so
if you do it, get a tsunami warning, you definitely
have to pay attention to it because even if it
doesn't happen, it is good preparation and normalization of something
that because we don't get them often enough, we don't
treat them like we do weather warnings. You know, when
you get a severe weather warning and you know that
(02:13):
it's going to be really you know, if you're going
to get one hundred and forty kilometer are in our winds,
you're preparing yourself for that. And as much as you can.
Tsunami alerts, you know, warnings, we don't get very many
of them, and so we can quite often dismiss them
and go, oh, it won't be March. It's not going
to be anything. You know that. I do understand that
way of thinking. But at the same time, there's a
(02:33):
reason why at weather Watch we have always jumped in
to the deep end whenever there's excuse the pump, whenever
there is a tsunami warning issue for New Zealand, even
if it's a five centimeter tsunami in the end, that
is still a wall of water. Even at five centimeters,
that's on top of the normal sea level, and that
can cause problems, not too many at that level, but
(02:55):
the ones that go bigger than that, even if they
are only half a meter, that's still actually more than
what you think. So I always think of it as
being like a bit of a flash flood on top
of the sea. You know, It's like this extra layer
that we don't think about. And so whenever there's one
that's in America or Japan or Chile or wherever it is,
it's really good for us to actually normalize a warning.
(03:16):
And by that I mean understand what it is and
do what you're told to do, because one day there
will be a time where we do get a damaging
tsunami that's happened in the past, and in fact, Otago
was one of the worst affected areas in New Zealand
from a tsunami a very long time ago that killed people.
And so over one hundred years ago, a couple hundred
(03:36):
years ago, it might have been actually, you know, so
we do get them and they can be from another
country and usually they often are. Actually, so yeah, good
good learning curve for us all just to be reminded
of what to do and to just keep on your feet.
But really glad that this one was a nothing in
the sense of that tsunami that is.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
Yeah, so what's certainly over the next seven days for
the south will yeah, well back.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
To what I actually know more about.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
Cut it off pretty well.
Speaker 3 (04:01):
Oh, thank you. Where the forecasters do actually cover tsunami
because when you think about it, you don't, you know,
Geoette don't make a daily video about earthquakes, and so
we are a source of natural disasters. People come to
us whenever there's a volcanic eruption and ash clouds and
things like that, so we are kind of skilled to
some degree in that area. But when it comes to
(04:21):
the weather, where the forecasters around New Zealand have got
a bit of time to put their feet up because
we don't have a lot of severe weather coming through
over the next I'm going to say six days. I'm
not going to say week. I'll get to that in
a moment. But we do have a pretty settle period
of weather thanks to an enormous area of high pressure
that stretches from the Indian Ocean right across southern Australia
(04:44):
right across the Tasman Sea, over parts of New Zealand.
It'll move around the New Zealand area and then it
carries on out over towards the International Dateline. So in short,
that high pressure belt is about twelve thousand kilometers across
and we are one thousand, six hundred kilometers length wise,
so we are we could set a number of New
(05:05):
Zealands in this high pressure belt. So it's going to
be fairly settled. But as I say, we're on the
edge of the high pressure. So tomorrow you do have
some wet weather coming through. That'll probably come through, and
towards the afternoon and evening bit of a cold front
coming through, so the temperatures drop, so Sunday's colder and
you go back to frost's Sunday night. Monday night warms
(05:27):
up a little bit going into the next week, but
then the end of next week we might be looking
at our first Antarctic southerly of the year, but it
is not yet locked in. It's too messy to lock
in just yet, but it is showing up on the
long range maps. Today, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday are all
dry or mostly dry, so there might be a shower,
(05:49):
but not going to be much mostly dry. That changes
at the end of next week, so around about Thursday
night going into Friday. It doesn't at this stage look
like a major rain event, but there is this cold
front coming through, and some of the long range maps
are showing that the southerly wind is coming off Antarctica
(06:09):
or very close to it, and we actually haven't had
that very much this winter. We've had cold southerly's and
they've brought snow, but we had not had that super
chilled air. Now, when I look at your temperatures, they
don't reflect an Antarctic glass just yet. It shows a
maximum next Friday of eight degrees and next weekend maximum
of eight degrees both Saturday and Sunday. The twenty fifth
(06:31):
and twenty sixth of July, and the overnight temperatures are
around two to four degrees, So it'll just depend on
if that wet weather at the end of next week
and next weekend is occurring when the temperatures drop down
to two degrees at night, that's the part that I'm
looking for. So we might be seeing the chance of
some lower level snow, but it is too far out
(06:51):
to lock in, and we won't know probably until Monday
or Tuesday next week.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
So Samta, just being patient. I'm playing with in front
of you for the next couple of days, going to
frame yea.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
Either way there is. It does look like there will
be a change at some point at the ed of
the next week that will be more unsettled than the
weather pattern we've got at the moment. But yeah, there's
a lot of high pressure, and I know that the
weather is quiet because our weather videos aren't rating as well,
about half the number of viewers at the moment, and
that's always a sign of people have looked at their
local forecast and gone, Okay, there's not nothing to really
(07:23):
see here, but there are a few little things, and
we do have some showers in the mix. There are
some frosts in the mix, probably get a bit of fog.
Patches are possible, although I don't think fog will be widespread,
but there is the chance of some fog around this
Sunday and Monday, or some low cloud around.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
I'm still waiting to hear a weather forecast with a
jingle plays and the forecast and the presenter something goes,
yeah it's good.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
Yeah, yeah, that'd be good. If I could get paid
the same amount of money to do that, I would
do that in a half. But people apparently like me talking.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
So I certainly appreciate your doulcin tones on the masterful
Dunk and out of Were the Watch. Thanks to your
time as always.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
That's right. I hope you have a nice calm weekend.
Shaken not Stard, Phil drunkn of We're the Watch.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Go and follow them on the social media channels doing
a fantastic job every Friday. Here on the Muster Up
next Steve Ellison, out of Bioactive Soils
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