July 30, 2026 • 8 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch looks at a cool southern forecast for the next seven days.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
That says the muster, trying to catch up with Paul
Duncan of weather Watch.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
You know, fell House eggs very good.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Thank you. Another another cold week in paradise.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
That's a good way to wrap it up actually and
summarize things. It's cool today, what are we seeing.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Yeah, well, yeah, we've certainly got a cold change coming
through the country over the next twenty four hours. So
those westerly winds turning southerly for you guys today, and
as it does that the wet weather will start to
taper off. But the temperature is one of those rare
days where as you get to the middle of the
day the temperature actually starts to drop rather than go
(01:02):
up to its peak. So that coldest suddenly kicks into
this afternoon and going into tonight. There could be some
snow flurries around, you know, certainly around northern Southland there
is a chance of that today, mostly above one or
two hundred meters and it won't be a huge amount,
but there is the chance of some snow, certainly on
the hills and the ranges. We're expecting a dusting as
(01:24):
this all comes through. But by the time the coldest
of the air arrives sort of mid this evening. That's
when a lot of that moisture disappears, the drier, colder
air kicks in, and a fairly cold weekend. I wouldn't
say it's actually too bad though, because Tomorrow is actually
a degree warmer than today will be, and Sunday warmer
still with a high going into the double digits with
(01:46):
twelve degrees, so a nice kind of short cold change
coming through view. And then next week we've got high
pressure starting to arrive after a few showers on Monday.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
So this is just a bit of a sting for
the end of July, nothing more.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Yeah, pretty much. You know, a few days ago we
were talking about the chance of this being an Antarctic blast,
and that when we say Antarctic, we mean that the
airflow is coming straight off Antarctica. That is occurring, but
most of it is actually being pushed eastwards off shore,
off the coastline. So the coldest of the airflow coming
(02:21):
in tonight will be east of the South Island between
you and the Channel Islands. That's where the really cold
stuff is, so you're on the edge of it. Then
that high rolls in, so next week we're going to
see some pretty heavy frosts around Tuesday night. The overnight
low at this stage is minus four, so we'll see
some areas going down to minus six and minus seven
that are maybe higher up or further inland. And yeah,
(02:44):
that stays around through the through the rest of next week.
So from Tuesday night onwards, it is frosty right through
till next weekend and potentially the following week.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
So what are the daytime highs and we're getting big frosts.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
The daytime high aren't too bad, but between seven and
ten degrees as we go through next week and next weekend,
most of next week's seven or eight degrees are the maximums.
Overnight lows between minus two and minus four generally speaking,
so it's colder. You know, it's normal though for August.
(03:19):
So we're not really seeing anything too extraordinary coming through
next week because of this large area of high pressure.
It's a narrow, very tall high pressure zone, kind of
like how New Zealand is narrow and long. So this
high pressure zone will start up in the subtropics and
go all the way down well south of you, and
(03:39):
there might actually be in some parts of the country
are changed to more subtropical northerly as we go in
next week, but I don't think you'll really notice that
very much in Southland. The winds will be light pretty
much or next week, but there will be a slight
nor'easter developing as we go in towards the end of
next week and going into the first weekend, sorry, the
second weekend of August. There's this is the first weekend
(04:01):
coming up of.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
August, So that run of frost is going to be
short lived, would you say?
Speaker 3 (04:06):
It'll be well of the last several days, and then
it should start to ease as those I think we'll
get more northerlies going in towards the middle of the month.
There is this unusual high pressure zone. I say unusual
because it's just not one single area. By Tuesday of
next week, there will be actually three high pressure zones,
one over Australia, the other one south of the Tasman Sea,
(04:30):
and the other one up around northern New Zealand. And
those three areas of high pressure kind of merge into
this long, skinny high pressure belt covering the country next week.
So after that there may well be low pressure and
a change in wind direction, but it's a pretty dry
week coming up as well. Most of the wet weather
risks are today and then a little bit going through
(04:52):
Sunday and Monday, just a few showers around, and then
really most of next week is dry. It's classic clear
winter win.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Ever, go two weeks into August onwards full we're getting
into carving the first of the lambs. We'll start hitting
the ground sooner than later. Are you predicting anything out
of the ordinary at this stage?
Speaker 3 (05:12):
It's a messy weather pattern. So messy means that we've
got highs and lows in the forecast. It's not just
all one you know, one one system. And like I
say that, there is this chance of subtropical wind coming through.
So on Monday, the tenth of August, sort of ten
days or so away from now, eleven days from now,
(05:32):
high pressure is ex expected to be centered northeast of
the North Island. That placement drags down an airflow from
near Fiji and over Tongue itself and pulls that down
over Southland. Now that that in its own may not
be overly warm, simply because there'll be a cooler pool
(05:52):
of wind that's down at the surface level of the planet.
And so around Southland it still could be cold, but
the change coming in that second week of August, we
may actually get a northwester or out of Australia, so
we could be seeing perhaps a sign of spring, because
once you get those windy westeries arriving, and there is
a chance of that happening as we go in towards
the middle of August, the windy belt of Westerly is
(06:14):
coming through, so keep an eye on it. At the moment,
I don't see an early start to spring. Some years
we announced spring as early as the end of July,
like literally this last week of July. There have been
years where I've confidently said spring is arriving, even if
you're in Southland or Otago, Spring's kicking in this year.
I just don't feel that yet. It's a bit of
(06:36):
a gut instinct on it looking at the long range maps,
but there's just a fair bit of turmoil out there
at the moment, still dredging up these colder changes. So
even when I look at the tenth of August and
talking about that subtropical wind over in Australia around Adelaide
and Melbourne and Hobart, there is a wintry outbreak coming
in there, so obviously that will move our way at
(06:57):
some point.
Speaker 4 (06:57):
Are you definitely's bulbing or come out yet up there?
Speaker 3 (07:00):
Not where I am, although I did get someone the
other day saying that the leeds buds were coming out
on it. I can't remember what the tree was, but
it was a tree that normally wouldn't get spring leaves
on it, and that was in a part of Hawk's Bay,
so maybe some areas of getting it. There could be
some plants that are confused also from the warm start
that the country had to winter, because you know, we
(07:22):
ended autumn and started winter on a mild note in
many places, and you and I were talking about the
lack of frost. Yeah, certainly that's gone now right, We're
we're in a classic winter now. It's a properly cold
winter right across New Zealand and also across southern parts
of Australia where they're getting one snow event after the
other for the ski fields.
Speaker 4 (07:42):
So Dargan of weather Watch, thanks, your type is always
on the muster.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Well good, maybe have a good weekend, So Dargan of.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Weather Watch gun follow them on YouTube or a social
channels channels always good to have him on board as
he gives up his time the way he does.
Speaker 4 (07:57):
So Morrison's out next farming.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
It will a been no, no,
That says the muster, trying to catch up with Paul
Duncan of weather Watch.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
You know, fell House eggs very good.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Thank you. Another another cold week in paradise.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
That's a good way to wrap it up actually and
summarize things. It's cool today, what are we seeing.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Yeah, well, yeah, we've certainly got a cold change coming
through the country over the next twenty four hours. So
those westerly winds turning southerly for you guys today, and
as it does that the wet weather will start to
taper off. But the temperature is one of those rare
days where as you get to the middle of the
day the temperature actually starts to drop rather than go
(01:02):
up to its peak. So that coldest suddenly kicks into
this afternoon and going into tonight. There could be some
snow flurries around, you know, certainly around northern Southland there
is a chance of that today, mostly above one or
two hundred meters and it won't be a huge amount,
but there is the chance of some snow, certainly on
the hills and the ranges. We're expecting a dusting as
(01:24):
this all comes through. But by the time the coldest
of the air arrives sort of mid this evening. That's
when a lot of that moisture disappears, the drier, colder
air kicks in, and a fairly cold weekend. I wouldn't
say it's actually too bad though, because Tomorrow is actually
a degree warmer than today will be, and Sunday warmer
still with a high going into the double digits with
(01:46):
twelve degrees, so a nice kind of short cold change
coming through view. And then next week we've got high
pressure starting to arrive after a few showers on Monday.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
So this is just a bit of a sting for
the end of July, nothing more.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Yeah, pretty much. You know, a few days ago we
were talking about the chance of this being an Antarctic blast,
and that when we say Antarctic, we mean that the
airflow is coming straight off Antarctica. That is occurring, but
most of it is actually being pushed eastwards off shore,
off the coastline. So the coldest of the airflow coming
(02:21):
in tonight will be east of the South Island between
you and the Channel Islands. That's where the really cold
stuff is, so you're on the edge of it. Then
that high rolls in, so next week we're going to
see some pretty heavy frosts around Tuesday night. The overnight
low at this stage is minus four, so we'll see
some areas going down to minus six and minus seven
that are maybe higher up or further inland. And yeah,
(02:44):
that stays around through the through the rest of next week.
So from Tuesday night onwards, it is frosty right through
till next weekend and potentially the following week.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
So what are the daytime highs and we're getting big frosts.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
The daytime high aren't too bad, but between seven and
ten degrees as we go through next week and next weekend,
most of next week's seven or eight degrees are the maximums.
Overnight lows between minus two and minus four generally speaking,
so it's colder. You know, it's normal though for August.
(03:19):
So we're not really seeing anything too extraordinary coming through
next week because of this large area of high pressure.
It's a narrow, very tall high pressure zone, kind of
like how New Zealand is narrow and long. So this
high pressure zone will start up in the subtropics and
go all the way down well south of you, and
(03:39):
there might actually be in some parts of the country
are changed to more subtropical northerly as we go in
next week, but I don't think you'll really notice that
very much in Southland. The winds will be light pretty
much or next week, but there will be a slight
nor'easter developing as we go in towards the end of
next week and going into the first weekend, sorry, the
second weekend of August. There's this is the first weekend
(04:01):
coming up of.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
August, So that run of frost is going to be
short lived, would you say?
Speaker 3 (04:06):
It'll be well of the last several days, and then
it should start to ease as those I think we'll
get more northerlies going in towards the middle of the month.
There is this unusual high pressure zone. I say unusual
because it's just not one single area. By Tuesday of
next week, there will be actually three high pressure zones,
one over Australia, the other one south of the Tasman Sea,
(04:30):
and the other one up around northern New Zealand. And
those three areas of high pressure kind of merge into
this long, skinny high pressure belt covering the country next week.
So after that there may well be low pressure and
a change in wind direction, but it's a pretty dry
week coming up as well. Most of the wet weather
risks are today and then a little bit going through
(04:52):
Sunday and Monday, just a few showers around, and then
really most of next week is dry. It's classic clear
winter win.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Ever, go two weeks into August onwards full we're getting
into carving the first of the lambs. We'll start hitting
the ground sooner than later. Are you predicting anything out
of the ordinary at this stage?
Speaker 3 (05:12):
It's a messy weather pattern. So messy means that we've
got highs and lows in the forecast. It's not just
all one you know, one one system. And like I
say that, there is this chance of subtropical wind coming through.
So on Monday, the tenth of August, sort of ten
days or so away from now, eleven days from now,
(05:32):
high pressure is ex expected to be centered northeast of
the North Island. That placement drags down an airflow from
near Fiji and over Tongue itself and pulls that down
over Southland. Now that that in its own may not
be overly warm, simply because there'll be a cooler pool
(05:52):
of wind that's down at the surface level of the planet.
And so around Southland it still could be cold, but
the change coming in that second week of August, we
may actually get a northwester or out of Australia, so
we could be seeing perhaps a sign of spring, because
once you get those windy westeries arriving, and there is
a chance of that happening as we go in towards
the middle of August, the windy belt of Westerly is
(06:14):
coming through, so keep an eye on it. At the moment,
I don't see an early start to spring. Some years
we announced spring as early as the end of July,
like literally this last week of July. There have been
years where I've confidently said spring is arriving, even if
you're in Southland or Otago, Spring's kicking in this year.
I just don't feel that yet. It's a bit of
(06:36):
a gut instinct on it looking at the long range maps,
but there's just a fair bit of turmoil out there
at the moment, still dredging up these colder changes. So
even when I look at the tenth of August and
talking about that subtropical wind over in Australia around Adelaide
and Melbourne and Hobart, there is a wintry outbreak coming
in there, so obviously that will move our way at
(06:57):
some point.
Speaker 4 (06:57):
Are you definitely's bulbing or come out yet up there?
Speaker 3 (07:00):
Not where I am, although I did get someone the
other day saying that the leeds buds were coming out
on it. I can't remember what the tree was, but
it was a tree that normally wouldn't get spring leaves
on it, and that was in a part of Hawk's Bay,
so maybe some areas of getting it. There could be
some plants that are confused also from the warm start
that the country had to winter, because you know, we
(07:22):
ended autumn and started winter on a mild note in
many places, and you and I were talking about the
lack of frost. Yeah, certainly that's gone now right, We're
we're in a classic winter now. It's a properly cold
winter right across New Zealand and also across southern parts
of Australia where they're getting one snow event after the
other for the ski fields.
Speaker 4 (07:42):
So Dargan of weather Watch, thanks, your type is always
on the muster.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Well good, maybe have a good weekend, So Dargan of.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Weather Watch gun follow them on YouTube or a social
channels channels always good to have him on board as
he gives up his time the way he does.
Speaker 4 (07:57):
So Morrison's out next farming.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
It will a been no, no,
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.