September 3, 2026 • 6 mins
Phil Duncan looks at the southern forecast for the next seven days.
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
This is the muster. It is time to catch up
with Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch. G'day, Phil. G'day, g'day.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
How are you?
Speaker 1 (00:36):
I'm going pretty good. The weather down here has not
been settled though. Yesterday was a beautiful day around 17 degrees.
The last day of August was arguably the worst day
of winter. What's happening in spring? What are you doing?
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Can I phone a friend? 50-50? I don't want to
answer it. Yeah, 50-50. Yeah, it's pretty messy at the moment.
We're in a what I would call a classic start
to spring, where it still feels a lot more like winter,
but you do get these brief moments where it warms
up and you think, oh, we're all coming to an
(01:13):
end with it. But because of El Nino, which is
still intensifying, that is warming up the sea well to
the northeast of New Zealand. So the more it warms up,
the warm air rises. And so as the air rises,
as the sea warms up, it changes things down in
our part of the world. And it sort of acts
like a bit of a vacuum with these southwesterly winds
(01:33):
that keep blowing through, adds a wee bit more oomph
to them. And so we're certainly getting there. And to
be honest with you, there is no immediate end in sight.
But we do have some big high-pressure zones that are
moving south of Australia next week. That's actually going to
dredge up colder weather for us, colder than what we've
got at the moment, potentially. In fact, quite likely, I think,
(01:55):
later next week, there is a significant winter outbreak there
It's not locked in just yet, but it is all
about this huge high south of Australia. So I'm optimistic
that that high might reach New Zealand. But because of
the strong southwest flow through the Tasman Sea, a high
pressure system that's tracking eastwards underneath Australia, south of Australia,
(02:18):
moves to the Tasman and then gets kind of pushed northeast.
And it can sometimes slide up to the north of
New Zealand and not cross over us. that's possible that
we could still be in a windy setup right through
uh into the middle to later part of the month are.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
We able to find a friend for an alternative answer yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
Um who do you want to i'll ring that service
put it on them make them shoulder it but it's
it's you know to be honest with you it's normal
for this time of the year to be getting such
wild weather but it is It's a little more repetitive
than may be usual. Normally we get bursts of wind
(02:58):
and then it calms down and we get a period
of three or four days where it's quite lovely and
then it turns rubbish again. But at the moment, we're
sort of only having a very short one or two
day window. And even then, it's probably got a gale
force westerly, even if it's sunny and warm. So it
is a bit of everything at the moment, that is
for sure.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
Wind chill is going to be the big one for
a lot of people then. Is that going to continue
to be a concern?
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Yeah, I think it will be. Maybe not quite so
much today and this weekend, even though it isn't, you know,
the flashes today. But the wind chill could be more
of a problem next week. So Thursday, Friday next week
is when we expect this next polar surge to come through. Now,
the wind chill, just looking now at ruralweather.co.nz for Gore,
(03:41):
wind chill's not too bad, but it is bad. You know,
like it's not good for a newborn animal when it's
down around zero or minus one, minus two at times.
So we will get some colder air. So just looking
at the actual air temperatures, though, maximum on Wednesday is
13 or 14. Thursday, it's only 7. That is the
maximum temperature. And then Friday, Saturday, Sunday, next weekend, it's
(04:06):
around sort of 8 or 9 degrees. Overnight lows of
around 3 or 4. So it's cold, winter-like. But it's
not necessarily like a midwinter polar event. So it is
slightly warmer than what we'd get in winter, but it's
slightly colder than what you'd probably like for spring.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Are we going to get a lot of rain?
Speaker 2 (04:26):
So you are getting a fair, not necessarily huge amounts
of rain, but sort of a number of days that
have wet weather, averaging sort of around 8, 10 degrees.
eight to 10 millimetres each day. So we've got that,
you've got about five or six millimetres today, and that'll
be higher for western parts of the region. Could be
double that. Eight or nine millimetres tomorrow, and this is
(04:49):
for Gore. Not too much Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, but then Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
across the end of next week and next weekend, you're
averaging around about sort of nine or so millimetres a day.
So it's not huge amounts, But it's kind of coming
in each day, and that adds up to being, you know, 60,
70 millimetres after a week or so has gone by.
(05:11):
And again, if you're on the western side, if you're
out over towards Lumsden and further to the west, those
rainfall numbers could be higher. We are expecting about 300
millimetres on the west coast over the next week. And
because we've got low pressure coming in on Sunday, that's
going to stretch out over to the eastern side of
the island. And when it does that, we get rain
(05:31):
falling in eastern areas. So Canterbury, for example, Not always
the case with a north-west centre, but when that low
crosses actually over the island, rain can be transferred quite
easily from west coast to east coast, and Southland being
below most of that could get brushed by a bit
of that as well. So it's a bit of a
messy forecast, to be honest.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
Is there any chance of these winds next week drying
out the top of the ground?
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Probably not too much. The strongest of the winds are
today and tomorrow, where you've got these gusts up to
gale force in exposed areas. on the hilltops in particular.
But the wind is back on Sunday as that low
comes in because the centre of the low will be
quite close to you, so it's usually fairly calm. Not
a lot of wind around Monday, Tuesday. And then as
we go into the later part of next week, when
(06:17):
we get that polar change, it could be another surge
of strong westerlies for northern Southland and perhaps a bit
more southwesterly for coastal Southland.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Yeah, interesting as always, Phil Duncan. You enjoy the weekend.
We always appreciate your time. And I'll be honest, I'd
like to use the phone a friend option, please.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Yeah, we'll do that next week. We'll get someone sorted.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch every Friday here on the Muster.
Go and follow him on his social channels. Does a
great job doing the forecast, especially for rural New Zealand.
Brenton Howden's up next, based out of Benmore. This is
the Muster.
This is the muster. It is time to catch up
with Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch. G'day, Phil. G'day, g'day.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
How are you?
Speaker 1 (00:36):
I'm going pretty good. The weather down here has not
been settled though. Yesterday was a beautiful day around 17 degrees.
The last day of August was arguably the worst day
of winter. What's happening in spring? What are you doing?
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Can I phone a friend? 50-50? I don't want to
answer it. Yeah, 50-50. Yeah, it's pretty messy at the moment.
We're in a what I would call a classic start
to spring, where it still feels a lot more like winter,
but you do get these brief moments where it warms
up and you think, oh, we're all coming to an
(01:13):
end with it. But because of El Nino, which is
still intensifying, that is warming up the sea well to
the northeast of New Zealand. So the more it warms up,
the warm air rises. And so as the air rises,
as the sea warms up, it changes things down in
our part of the world. And it sort of acts
like a bit of a vacuum with these southwesterly winds
(01:33):
that keep blowing through, adds a wee bit more oomph
to them. And so we're certainly getting there. And to
be honest with you, there is no immediate end in sight.
But we do have some big high-pressure zones that are
moving south of Australia next week. That's actually going to
dredge up colder weather for us, colder than what we've
got at the moment, potentially. In fact, quite likely, I think,
(01:55):
later next week, there is a significant winter outbreak there
It's not locked in just yet, but it is all
about this huge high south of Australia. So I'm optimistic
that that high might reach New Zealand. But because of
the strong southwest flow through the Tasman Sea, a high
pressure system that's tracking eastwards underneath Australia, south of Australia,
(02:18):
moves to the Tasman and then gets kind of pushed northeast.
And it can sometimes slide up to the north of
New Zealand and not cross over us. that's possible that
we could still be in a windy setup right through
uh into the middle to later part of the month are.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
We able to find a friend for an alternative answer yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
Um who do you want to i'll ring that service
put it on them make them shoulder it but it's
it's you know to be honest with you it's normal
for this time of the year to be getting such
wild weather but it is It's a little more repetitive
than may be usual. Normally we get bursts of wind
(02:58):
and then it calms down and we get a period
of three or four days where it's quite lovely and
then it turns rubbish again. But at the moment, we're
sort of only having a very short one or two
day window. And even then, it's probably got a gale
force westerly, even if it's sunny and warm. So it
is a bit of everything at the moment, that is
for sure.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
Wind chill is going to be the big one for
a lot of people then. Is that going to continue
to be a concern?
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Yeah, I think it will be. Maybe not quite so
much today and this weekend, even though it isn't, you know,
the flashes today. But the wind chill could be more
of a problem next week. So Thursday, Friday next week
is when we expect this next polar surge to come through. Now,
the wind chill, just looking now at ruralweather.co.nz for Gore,
(03:41):
wind chill's not too bad, but it is bad. You know,
like it's not good for a newborn animal when it's
down around zero or minus one, minus two at times.
So we will get some colder air. So just looking
at the actual air temperatures, though, maximum on Wednesday is
13 or 14. Thursday, it's only 7. That is the
maximum temperature. And then Friday, Saturday, Sunday, next weekend, it's
(04:06):
around sort of 8 or 9 degrees. Overnight lows of
around 3 or 4. So it's cold, winter-like. But it's
not necessarily like a midwinter polar event. So it is
slightly warmer than what we'd get in winter, but it's
slightly colder than what you'd probably like for spring.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Are we going to get a lot of rain?
Speaker 2 (04:26):
So you are getting a fair, not necessarily huge amounts
of rain, but sort of a number of days that
have wet weather, averaging sort of around 8, 10 degrees.
eight to 10 millimetres each day. So we've got that,
you've got about five or six millimetres today, and that'll
be higher for western parts of the region. Could be
double that. Eight or nine millimetres tomorrow, and this is
(04:49):
for Gore. Not too much Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, but then Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
across the end of next week and next weekend, you're
averaging around about sort of nine or so millimetres a day.
So it's not huge amounts, But it's kind of coming
in each day, and that adds up to being, you know, 60,
70 millimetres after a week or so has gone by.
(05:11):
And again, if you're on the western side, if you're
out over towards Lumsden and further to the west, those
rainfall numbers could be higher. We are expecting about 300
millimetres on the west coast over the next week. And
because we've got low pressure coming in on Sunday, that's
going to stretch out over to the eastern side of
the island. And when it does that, we get rain
(05:31):
falling in eastern areas. So Canterbury, for example, Not always
the case with a north-west centre, but when that low
crosses actually over the island, rain can be transferred quite
easily from west coast to east coast, and Southland being
below most of that could get brushed by a bit
of that as well. So it's a bit of a
messy forecast, to be honest.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
Is there any chance of these winds next week drying
out the top of the ground?
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Probably not too much. The strongest of the winds are
today and tomorrow, where you've got these gusts up to
gale force in exposed areas. on the hilltops in particular.
But the wind is back on Sunday as that low
comes in because the centre of the low will be
quite close to you, so it's usually fairly calm. Not
a lot of wind around Monday, Tuesday. And then as
we go into the later part of next week, when
(06:17):
we get that polar change, it could be another surge
of strong westerlies for northern Southland and perhaps a bit
more southwesterly for coastal Southland.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Yeah, interesting as always, Phil Duncan. You enjoy the weekend.
We always appreciate your time. And I'll be honest, I'd
like to use the phone a friend option, please.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Yeah, we'll do that next week. We'll get someone sorted.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch every Friday here on the Muster.
Go and follow him on his social channels. Does a
great job doing the forecast, especially for rural New Zealand.
Brenton Howden's up next, based out of Benmore. This is
the Muster.
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