September 10, 2026 • 7 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch looks at the southern forecast for the next seven days.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome back to the muster. Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch joins us.
(00:29):
Good afternoon, Phil.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Good afternoon.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
I got a message from a mate the other day
after we spoke last week. His first name is Nathan.
We'll leave it at that. And Nathan was saying, when
the hell are we going to get a decent forecast?
Tell your mate not to come back onto the radio
until we get it sorted. But also ask him, have
we genuinely seen a moving of the seasons in the south?
Speaker 2 (00:51):
That's a very good question. I think at the moment
we're still very much in the early phases of spring.
And for Southland, that means that you probably still have
more days that are colder than they are warmer. But
that usually changes over the next four weeks and it
switches the other way around. You end up with more
days that are warmer and fewer days that are colder.
(01:11):
So that's probably my advice. And as far as wanting
to look at some warm weather on the way, let's
just focus on Tuesday of next week and ignore every
other day of the week. And then we'll have a
a very positive forecast for you.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
I suppose when you say cooler weather, are we going
to get the wind chill? You can handle 10 degrees
if you're not getting that westerly or that easterly.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Yeah, the wind chill is in there at times over
the coming week. It's going to be particularly colder. We're
not talking about a major cold outbreak, but it will
be colder as we go into this afternoon. Temperatures are dropping.
In fact, in Gore today, the temperatures started to drop
From a forecasting point of view, you know, normally you
look at the graph and it usually goes up in
(01:54):
the afternoon and then drops down as you go closer
towards sunset. But today that temperature starts to drop during
the middle of the afternoon, a sign of some colder weather.
So a little bit colder going into tomorrow. There's nothing
really major from a wind chill point of view. But
next week, around Wednesday p.m. through to Friday p.m., So
(02:16):
that 48-hour period at the end of next week, it
does look a bit cold there. And that's where the
wind chill is often between sort of zero and five
degrees any time of the day or night. So that's
a bit of a colder spell later next week.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Is that what we're just going to get for the
remainder of September? Everything's just uncertain because normally about this
time of year, we're starting to see a bit of
decent growth.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
Yeah, it's been warmer in a number of areas, but
that doesn't necessarily translate to grass growth just yet. The
days also need to get longer, which they are rapidly
doing now. In fact, I think by the start of
next week, there is nowhere in New Zealand that has
sun setting before 6pm, unless you live on the Chatham Islands.
(03:00):
So everyone will... The last part of New Zealand to
get to that point is Gisborne. And so I think
they've reached that point in the next couple of days.
So that means you guys further southwards, your days are
already getting longer than they are up in the North Island.
So that's better for pasture growth, but you just need
that extra bit of warmth, and we're just not quite
there yet. That's why quite a lot of farmers and
(03:22):
growers don't really say that the seasons have changed until
we get to that astronomical date. So that will be
the spring equinox, and that is not very far away
from now. That's only just over a week and a
bit away. So once we get to about the 22nd,
23rd of September, that is when we are, you know,
in all different ways of measuring it, we're definitely into spring.
(03:44):
But if you go with the astronomical calendar, we're still
technically in the very end of winter at the moment.
Hence why your grass is not growing perfectly just yet.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
This weather cycle is going to continue then, although it
will be getting warmer, arguably.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Yeah, we are seeing some warmer trends coming through, not
just around New Zealand, but over in Australia. And in fact,
the last couple of weeks around New Zealand have been
warmer than average in every region. And a lot of
people don't always understand that because it can feel cold.
So you, as a human being, feeling warm or cold
(04:18):
is irrelevant to whether or not it's warmer or cooler
than average. And so we've had a number of regions
across the country being up to two degrees above normal.
And to give you an idea of how much that
is over a two-week period... That is as far as
the key goes on the map. It goes to two
degrees above normal and beyond. So we've seen a lot
(04:39):
of the country sort of Canterbury up to Waikato in
that two degrees warmer than average category. You guys are
down around about a degree above normal. And if it
doesn't feel warm, quite often when you do have a
warmer than average period of time, that often is at nighttime.
So you might have noticed a reduction in frosty conditions.
perhaps more so than previous years. And that could be
(05:01):
all it is that boosts your temperatures up to be
above normal.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
So no frosts or anything to worry about? Arguably, frosts
give you a warm day afterwards.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Yeah, I don't really see a lot of frost coming up,
but there is a little bit of a chance next
week when we see those temperatures drop. Thursday next week,
you're down to three degrees. You're down to four degrees tonight.
So that means some areas further inland or a little
bit higher up could be looking at getting close to
a frost. But I think any frosts that form this
week will be very, very light over the next 10 days.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Just to wrap up, 9-11, what are your memories?
Speaker 2 (05:36):
I've got strong memories of 9-11 because at the time,
I had my fiancée was living... She had gone back
to Canada. She was Canadian and had been in New
Zealand for a year. And she flew back one week
before 9-11 happened. And so it was a very scary
(05:56):
moment because... the borders all around the world pretty much
shut down, and you couldn't travel certainly into North America.
And so it was a little tough having the love
of my life living on another side of the world.
And on top of that, her flight, you know, you
fly from Auckland to Los Angeles and then Los Angeles
(06:18):
to Toronto. And the flight from Los Angeles to Toronto
the very next week was escorted back to L.A. with
fighter jets, because a man was in the toilet smoking
a cigarette, and he wouldn't come out, and they assumed
that it was a terrorist, so they got the fighter
jet scrambled. So it was a really kind of weird
(06:39):
time for me back then.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Yeah, hey, good on you, Phil. Always appreciate your time
on the muster. You enjoy the weekend.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
You too, mate, and look forward to Tuesday next week
when it's 18 degrees.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch, go and follow him on his
social channels, YouTube as well, does a great job looking
at the seven-day forecast for us down here in the
Deep South. Nigel Wood heads up next, based in South Otago.
You're listening to The Muster.
Welcome back to the muster. Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch joins us.
(00:29):
Good afternoon, Phil.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Good afternoon.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
I got a message from a mate the other day
after we spoke last week. His first name is Nathan.
We'll leave it at that. And Nathan was saying, when
the hell are we going to get a decent forecast?
Tell your mate not to come back onto the radio
until we get it sorted. But also ask him, have
we genuinely seen a moving of the seasons in the south?
Speaker 2 (00:51):
That's a very good question. I think at the moment
we're still very much in the early phases of spring.
And for Southland, that means that you probably still have
more days that are colder than they are warmer. But
that usually changes over the next four weeks and it
switches the other way around. You end up with more
days that are warmer and fewer days that are colder.
(01:11):
So that's probably my advice. And as far as wanting
to look at some warm weather on the way, let's
just focus on Tuesday of next week and ignore every
other day of the week. And then we'll have a
a very positive forecast for you.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
I suppose when you say cooler weather, are we going
to get the wind chill? You can handle 10 degrees
if you're not getting that westerly or that easterly.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Yeah, the wind chill is in there at times over
the coming week. It's going to be particularly colder. We're
not talking about a major cold outbreak, but it will
be colder as we go into this afternoon. Temperatures are dropping.
In fact, in Gore today, the temperatures started to drop
From a forecasting point of view, you know, normally you
look at the graph and it usually goes up in
(01:54):
the afternoon and then drops down as you go closer
towards sunset. But today that temperature starts to drop during
the middle of the afternoon, a sign of some colder weather.
So a little bit colder going into tomorrow. There's nothing
really major from a wind chill point of view. But
next week, around Wednesday p.m. through to Friday p.m., So
(02:16):
that 48-hour period at the end of next week, it
does look a bit cold there. And that's where the
wind chill is often between sort of zero and five
degrees any time of the day or night. So that's
a bit of a colder spell later next week.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Is that what we're just going to get for the
remainder of September? Everything's just uncertain because normally about this
time of year, we're starting to see a bit of
decent growth.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
Yeah, it's been warmer in a number of areas, but
that doesn't necessarily translate to grass growth just yet. The
days also need to get longer, which they are rapidly
doing now. In fact, I think by the start of
next week, there is nowhere in New Zealand that has
sun setting before 6pm, unless you live on the Chatham Islands.
(03:00):
So everyone will... The last part of New Zealand to
get to that point is Gisborne. And so I think
they've reached that point in the next couple of days.
So that means you guys further southwards, your days are
already getting longer than they are up in the North Island.
So that's better for pasture growth, but you just need
that extra bit of warmth, and we're just not quite
there yet. That's why quite a lot of farmers and
(03:22):
growers don't really say that the seasons have changed until
we get to that astronomical date. So that will be
the spring equinox, and that is not very far away
from now. That's only just over a week and a
bit away. So once we get to about the 22nd,
23rd of September, that is when we are, you know,
in all different ways of measuring it, we're definitely into spring.
(03:44):
But if you go with the astronomical calendar, we're still
technically in the very end of winter at the moment.
Hence why your grass is not growing perfectly just yet.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
This weather cycle is going to continue then, although it
will be getting warmer, arguably.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Yeah, we are seeing some warmer trends coming through, not
just around New Zealand, but over in Australia. And in fact,
the last couple of weeks around New Zealand have been
warmer than average in every region. And a lot of
people don't always understand that because it can feel cold.
So you, as a human being, feeling warm or cold
(04:18):
is irrelevant to whether or not it's warmer or cooler
than average. And so we've had a number of regions
across the country being up to two degrees above normal.
And to give you an idea of how much that
is over a two-week period... That is as far as
the key goes on the map. It goes to two
degrees above normal and beyond. So we've seen a lot
(04:39):
of the country sort of Canterbury up to Waikato in
that two degrees warmer than average category. You guys are
down around about a degree above normal. And if it
doesn't feel warm, quite often when you do have a
warmer than average period of time, that often is at nighttime.
So you might have noticed a reduction in frosty conditions.
perhaps more so than previous years. And that could be
(05:01):
all it is that boosts your temperatures up to be
above normal.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
So no frosts or anything to worry about? Arguably, frosts
give you a warm day afterwards.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Yeah, I don't really see a lot of frost coming up,
but there is a little bit of a chance next
week when we see those temperatures drop. Thursday next week,
you're down to three degrees. You're down to four degrees tonight.
So that means some areas further inland or a little
bit higher up could be looking at getting close to
a frost. But I think any frosts that form this
week will be very, very light over the next 10 days.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Just to wrap up, 9-11, what are your memories?
Speaker 2 (05:36):
I've got strong memories of 9-11 because at the time,
I had my fiancée was living... She had gone back
to Canada. She was Canadian and had been in New
Zealand for a year. And she flew back one week
before 9-11 happened. And so it was a very scary
(05:56):
moment because... the borders all around the world pretty much
shut down, and you couldn't travel certainly into North America.
And so it was a little tough having the love
of my life living on another side of the world.
And on top of that, her flight, you know, you
fly from Auckland to Los Angeles and then Los Angeles
(06:18):
to Toronto. And the flight from Los Angeles to Toronto
the very next week was escorted back to L.A. with
fighter jets, because a man was in the toilet smoking
a cigarette, and he wouldn't come out, and they assumed
that it was a terrorist, so they got the fighter
jet scrambled. So it was a really kind of weird
(06:39):
time for me back then.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Yeah, hey, good on you, Phil. Always appreciate your time
on the muster. You enjoy the weekend.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
You too, mate, and look forward to Tuesday next week
when it's 18 degrees.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch, go and follow him on his
social channels, YouTube as well, does a great job looking
at the seven-day forecast for us down here in the
Deep South. Nigel Wood heads up next, based in South Otago.
You're listening to The Muster.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!