April 21, 2026 • 7 mins
Sam Grant looks at the Middle East situation and the flow on effects for the Kiwi economy.
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
The Muster Financial Segment with Craig's Investment Partners in Gore.
This information is general in nature and it's not financial advice.
Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice Provider Disclosure statement can
be found at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Sam Grand and Craig's Investment Partners joins US this afternoon.
Good afternoon, Sam House Siggs.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
After fantastic, Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Sam. We're heading towards to call the months at the moment,
but this war overseas, fortunately it hasn't heated up, but
nonetheless we're just looking at global markets bouncing all over
the place. But unfortunately New Zealand here was still lagging.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
Yeah, so obviously once the when the war initially broke out,
our markets were down quite considerably, which was to be expected.
That ever seen over the last or a couple of weeks,
is that sort of negotiations and blockades, A potentially looking
to he's or at least looking at a potential end date.
Obviously nothing's been for the finalized yet, but markets are
(01:06):
sort of expecting that we are sort of food or
worst of it. Expectedly expectedly, the global markets have bounced back.
US has effectively recovered all its losses. Particularly if you
look at the New Zealand dollar terms, it's looking pretty
positive as their currency has weekend. But yeah, over here
in New Zealand and we're still about sexis think back
on their January highs, and a big drive of that
(01:31):
is money does seem to flow out of New Zealand
when global volatility increases, People talking about a global recession
possibly on the cads or is this just being too premature. No,
there's definitely potential for it, you know, if we start
to see some of those sort of inflationary pressures from
(01:52):
that sort of supply of oil not getting out because obviously,
you know the price of oil affects most parts of life,
so you know, you think all your trendsiborle costs people's
personal consumption. You know that all flows food to sort
of increase food prices, increase shipping of all goods, which
are effectively inflationary, which could push sort of spending an
(02:14):
economic activity down. So the longer US dregs on, the
higher the chance of that is. And we probably haven't
seen the full effect of increased oil prices flow through
at every aspect of life just yet.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Well, that's the thing I suppose. I mean, I may
have settled down there in the interim, but we're still
deceive ramifications regarding supply chains and that too. I mean,
these boats are on the water regarding this fuel situation.
They've been out there for quite a while and they're
only really entering New Zealand ports now. We're talking about
six seven, eight weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Yeah, one hand, yeah, and the other thing as well.
As you know, a lot of businesses will try and
eat the costs. They'll normally be happy to wear it
for the short term, but it's not sustainable for a
long term, at which point they're just to start increasing
classes on stuff.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Inflation pressure because of these oil prices. What are we
going to see?
Speaker 3 (03:05):
Yes, obviously if it to my earlier point, if it
does continue to drag on, or oil places to stay elevated,
we will start to see an increase of inflation. Markets
already expect that there's going to be a late rise
later this year in at OCR rate anyway, but your
duty expected this does drag on. There may be more
than one aimed business aided does a business comptence survey
(03:31):
every month. In the sort of late half that March
one had people were expecting they're going to have to
probably raise prices in the next couple of months if
this does drag on, which would be inflationary.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
We're talking about the GDT auction that occurred last night
back zero beack sorry, two point seven percent, but in
the biggest scheme of things, and the last two watches
have been down but possibly could have been a lot worse.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
Absolutely, Yeah, yeah, I think you've given what's going on.
You know, people do tend to take a step back
and wait and see kind of you that sort of
drives up demand. You tend to say that was probably
a pretty good result given the.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Situation, right, and the Fontierra checks have been coming in
the mail over the past week or so for Frontierra shareholders,
given that they've sold off their commercial lamb. Are you
seeing any flop follow through on this personally from your
guys perspective there or is it a case of farmers
perhaps just putting things away for rainy day?
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Yeah, so talking we have seen a week bit of
money flow through us, but you're talking to a lot
of farmers a lot sort of thinking get the payment,
sort of deferred maintenance on the farm. Will get a
bit of a update, but we are seeing or talking
to a lot of people sort of saying a bit
(04:51):
of a wait and see. You know, things and plot
costs do increase because of the sort of crisis in
the Middle East. You know, think having that cash on
call is a pretty good call. And we've got a
lot of tuners are taking at the moment.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
So as far as oci movements are staying pretty stationary
at the moment, but obviously it's going to change around.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
Yeah. So currently at the moment, expectations are rape rive
later in twenty twenty six, but if we do see
the Middle East situation drag on along with than what's expected,
we could potentially be one a bit earlier. If inflation
starts to rise.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
What about the key we dollar, are we going to
start to see small gains in it?
Speaker 3 (05:37):
The same Again, there'll be the dependent mainly on how
things are going on in the Middle East. New Zealand's
currencies are risk or what we call a risk on currency.
So when things are looking good around the world, money's
happy to come to New Zealand, But when there's a
bit of volatilely the money flows out, which sort of
puts pressure on their currency.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Yeah, that's a middle least situation. It's pretty much just
the benchmark for what's happening in economic around the world
at the moment.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Yeah. Absolutely, And it's kind of the blometer of where
things loo keep too going forward.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Interesting times and I suppose one positive is that we've
finally seen an easing at the pump. Talk about these
fuel prices. I think diesels almost back like forty five
cents and gore over the past ten days. As it is,
so we those we declines. I should say they're going
to be welcome because we needed relief.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
Well understand you, obviously these are almost four bucks. It's
not sustainable.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
Sam, the team at Craig's Investment Partners, how do people
get in touch?
Speaker 3 (06:35):
Yeah, if it come fan us at one Oak Street
opposite the New World or go on two nine zero
one five feet.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Good on you say im always appreciate your time.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Awesome, appreciate Dny, Sam.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Grant and Craig's Investment Partners based right here in Gore.
Warren Ross is up next farming out away Mumu and
before the end of the year, and Nathan Nathan Nelson
Darryan's in
The Muster Financial Segment with Craig's Investment Partners in Gore.
This information is general in nature and it's not financial advice.
Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice Provider Disclosure statement can
be found at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Sam Grand and Craig's Investment Partners joins US this afternoon.
Good afternoon, Sam House Siggs.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
After fantastic, Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Sam. We're heading towards to call the months at the moment,
but this war overseas, fortunately it hasn't heated up, but
nonetheless we're just looking at global markets bouncing all over
the place. But unfortunately New Zealand here was still lagging.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
Yeah, so obviously once the when the war initially broke out,
our markets were down quite considerably, which was to be expected.
That ever seen over the last or a couple of weeks,
is that sort of negotiations and blockades, A potentially looking
to he's or at least looking at a potential end date.
Obviously nothing's been for the finalized yet, but markets are
(01:06):
sort of expecting that we are sort of food or
worst of it. Expectedly expectedly, the global markets have bounced back.
US has effectively recovered all its losses. Particularly if you
look at the New Zealand dollar terms, it's looking pretty
positive as their currency has weekend. But yeah, over here
in New Zealand and we're still about sexis think back
on their January highs, and a big drive of that
(01:31):
is money does seem to flow out of New Zealand
when global volatility increases, People talking about a global recession
possibly on the cads or is this just being too premature. No,
there's definitely potential for it, you know, if we start
to see some of those sort of inflationary pressures from
(01:52):
that sort of supply of oil not getting out because obviously,
you know the price of oil affects most parts of life,
so you know, you think all your trendsiborle costs people's
personal consumption. You know that all flows food to sort
of increase food prices, increase shipping of all goods, which
are effectively inflationary, which could push sort of spending an
(02:14):
economic activity down. So the longer US dregs on, the
higher the chance of that is. And we probably haven't
seen the full effect of increased oil prices flow through
at every aspect of life just yet.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Well, that's the thing I suppose. I mean, I may
have settled down there in the interim, but we're still
deceive ramifications regarding supply chains and that too. I mean,
these boats are on the water regarding this fuel situation.
They've been out there for quite a while and they're
only really entering New Zealand ports now. We're talking about
six seven, eight weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Yeah, one hand, yeah, and the other thing as well.
As you know, a lot of businesses will try and
eat the costs. They'll normally be happy to wear it
for the short term, but it's not sustainable for a
long term, at which point they're just to start increasing
classes on stuff.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Inflation pressure because of these oil prices. What are we
going to see?
Speaker 3 (03:05):
Yes, obviously if it to my earlier point, if it
does continue to drag on, or oil places to stay elevated,
we will start to see an increase of inflation. Markets
already expect that there's going to be a late rise
later this year in at OCR rate anyway, but your
duty expected this does drag on. There may be more
than one aimed business aided does a business comptence survey
(03:31):
every month. In the sort of late half that March
one had people were expecting they're going to have to
probably raise prices in the next couple of months if
this does drag on, which would be inflationary.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
We're talking about the GDT auction that occurred last night
back zero beack sorry, two point seven percent, but in
the biggest scheme of things, and the last two watches
have been down but possibly could have been a lot worse.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
Absolutely, Yeah, yeah, I think you've given what's going on.
You know, people do tend to take a step back
and wait and see kind of you that sort of
drives up demand. You tend to say that was probably
a pretty good result given the.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Situation, right, and the Fontierra checks have been coming in
the mail over the past week or so for Frontierra shareholders,
given that they've sold off their commercial lamb. Are you
seeing any flop follow through on this personally from your
guys perspective there or is it a case of farmers
perhaps just putting things away for rainy day?
Speaker 3 (04:30):
Yeah, so talking we have seen a week bit of
money flow through us, but you're talking to a lot
of farmers a lot sort of thinking get the payment,
sort of deferred maintenance on the farm. Will get a
bit of a update, but we are seeing or talking
to a lot of people sort of saying a bit
(04:51):
of a wait and see. You know, things and plot
costs do increase because of the sort of crisis in
the Middle East. You know, think having that cash on
call is a pretty good call. And we've got a
lot of tuners are taking at the moment.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
So as far as oci movements are staying pretty stationary
at the moment, but obviously it's going to change around.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
Yeah. So currently at the moment, expectations are rape rive
later in twenty twenty six, but if we do see
the Middle East situation drag on along with than what's expected,
we could potentially be one a bit earlier. If inflation
starts to rise.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
What about the key we dollar, are we going to
start to see small gains in it?
Speaker 3 (05:37):
The same Again, there'll be the dependent mainly on how
things are going on in the Middle East. New Zealand's
currencies are risk or what we call a risk on currency.
So when things are looking good around the world, money's
happy to come to New Zealand, But when there's a
bit of volatilely the money flows out, which sort of
puts pressure on their currency.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Yeah, that's a middle least situation. It's pretty much just
the benchmark for what's happening in economic around the world
at the moment.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Yeah. Absolutely, And it's kind of the blometer of where
things loo keep too going forward.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Interesting times and I suppose one positive is that we've
finally seen an easing at the pump. Talk about these
fuel prices. I think diesels almost back like forty five
cents and gore over the past ten days. As it is,
so we those we declines. I should say they're going
to be welcome because we needed relief.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
Well understand you, obviously these are almost four bucks. It's
not sustainable.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
Sam, the team at Craig's Investment Partners, how do people
get in touch?
Speaker 3 (06:35):
Yeah, if it come fan us at one Oak Street
opposite the New World or go on two nine zero
one five feet.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Good on you say im always appreciate your time.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Awesome, appreciate Dny, Sam.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Grant and Craig's Investment Partners based right here in Gore.
Warren Ross is up next farming out away Mumu and
before the end of the year, and Nathan Nathan Nelson
Darryan's in
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