July 14, 2026 • 8 mins
Sam Grant says the recent OCR rise reflects the current mood of the NZ economy.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Just send you the Muster Financial segment with Craig's Investment
Partners in Gore. This information is general in nature and
it's not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice
Provider Disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Sam Ground and Craig's Investment Partners joins us this afternoon
on the must Good afternoon, How things good?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Thanks any yet? NOA doing pretty well surviving the winter.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
The Reserve Bank move rates for the first time in
years YOCA increased by twenty five basis points.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Yeah, absolutely so, pretty big news for the New Zealand economy.
So we've been going through a cycle of make cuts
for quite a few years now after we saw that
high inflationary period and to the Evans economy slowed and
then perfectly what we've seen is a bit of inflation
(00:58):
coming back into the economy, primarily driven by what's happened
on and I ran over the last sort of three
months with finding a fuel supply and the sort of
shoot up and prices, and it's sort of flow on
effect it can have to the with the economy is
just sort of every thing that comes domestically and internationally
(01:18):
generalize on fuel to get it where it's going, and
obviously that cost has to be passed on eventually, but it's
sort of effigially inflationary prices up. So he was saying
there was a bank get ahead of it a wee bit.
There was a bit of talk about whether they would
actually do it, but you know, I think the last
two times a bit a bit slow in terms of
(01:39):
rising rates. When during COVID when there's a lot of
sort of government spending and then maybe a wee bit
slow to cut rates as I saw the economy slow.
So I think the effected some of their decision making
to make sure they've sort of went to sort of
too delayed in getting getting a bit of a result.
So yeah, obviously really trying to keep inflation in that
(02:01):
sort of one to three percent target.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
So are you thinking there'll be more rises before the
end of the year.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
So market as effectively pricing and potentially one more, but yeah,
I'll see a webit to be Seeing that the Reserve
Bank did say that they expect inflation to stay in
that one to three percent target, it's a good chance
that maybe not, and that the sort of need to
an outlook has improved on sort of oil and gas,
(02:29):
and obviously fertilizer prices sort of all down from their high,
so you wou'd expect that sort of normalizes and at
least sort of stays where it is or goes lower,
that that sort of inflation pressure should sort of.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Fall off the webit And that's the issue around inflation.
I suppose you talk about on fare on farm inflation
all the time and everything is still uncertain, I'd imagine, oh.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
Absolutely, Yeah, No, I think it sorts the days who
get long and the wather gets warmer, and your sort
of alliance on fuel to get your check to work,
and things like fertilizer pot costs that are still coming
into the season. Yeah, it probably makes you a wee
bit nervous potentially, And yet sort of talking to a
lot of farmers spefically Frontier farmers, they've got that sort
(03:12):
of capital payback from Frontier I don't know a lot
of it sort of to go to different payment, but
those that didn't need to repay the sort of keeping
it at a dry powder just a itchems to absorb it.
A costs that given the level of uncertainty at the moment.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
As far as on farm inflation, can we see it
kind of flattening out over the next six months and.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Perhaps Yeah, definitely where things are sort of assuming things
don't escalate, you tend to say there's probably gonna be
a wee bit more of a normalization. It's that fuel
prices come back, and that's sort of where there was
a bank sort of sea things sitting. Is a wee
bit more of a normalization in terms of pricing, which
sort of should hopefully keep inflation in that one to
three percent target range.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Now, the New Zealand economy it's still uneven. We get
told all the time about what Southland brings to the
table Entertago for that matter, regarding GDP figure, but up
north it's a different story.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
Yeah, absolutely so still sort of got that through state
economy where the regions are doing really well. Particularly Southland
is probably even the better of the out of all
the regions doing the best. But you have seen it
even in the North Island where outside the major centers
things are a lot better than what they are or
(04:23):
what you do see in Auckland and Wellington. I was
up in Auckland a couple of weeks ago and sort
of talking to some of the colleagues up there, and yeah,
sort of very very different conversations to what I'm having
with clients down here, sort of talking about things being
really tough in sort of cost of living, fishes and
all that kind of stuff. So yeah, definitely feels like
(04:45):
a different world down here compared to sort of the
likes of Wellington Auckland. And yeah, I know where I'd
rather be.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Well your population base, the argument there is totong and
North and as a result of that, that is where
a lot of money in this country is based, and
their projections I suppose just reflect the mood of the
population mass.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
Absolutely. Yeah, At the end of the day, population does
drive a lot of stuff, including cinnamon and the New
Zealand economy. So if you've got a large portion of
the population finding it tough, then that is quite a
big driver effectively. And yeah, yeah, I can understand why
it sort of drives a lot of the conversation when
that's what majority of New Zealand's.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Feeling and UIs surning season is starting, we're hearing some
robust second quarter results, especially with tech companies.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
Yeah, yeah, so you're going to be a sort of
interesting couple of weeks have already sort of started that process.
The three months on the on effectively, in specially the
US market was really really, really strong despite sort of
the what's been happening in Iran. Obviously, the sort of
(05:54):
hyperscaling of AI and sort of impact that's going to
have on companies is going to be really ri steen.
We saw IBM report overnight so and their ship prices
down twenty five percent overnight, which is quite massive, and
it's all been driven by a sort of impact of AI.
So for IBM's case, I've seen a reduced amount of
(06:17):
spinning on a lot of his software services, with people
sort of prioritizing AI spin, particularly on hardware as hardware
prices have shot up. A lot of the sort of
the corporates are sort of stopped buying but a hardware
to hopefully protict themselves against any further price rises. And
then what we're also seen as partie in IBM's case
(06:41):
is a lot more spinning and sort of cybersecurity as well,
So sort of the announcement around Claudes and topic mythis
and it's potential to particually get into enterprises and sort
of get around the cybersecurity. So I've seen a lot
more spinding sort of the cybersecurity space, so it's going
(07:02):
to be sort of potentially some big one of them
losers which would be quite interested in the reporting season.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
So we're starting to see AI have a real effect
on the earning season as such. Is that a fair
comed Yeah?
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Absolutely yes. So you know, with effectively IBM sort of
well below where people expected them to be in terms
of revenue. You're just sort of sort of changing spending habits.
Given the sort of AI boom at the moment, you
so be big beneficiaries out of that and sort of
some potential losers at least in the short term, your
long term sort of sort of uncertainty where things will
(07:35):
end up.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
So what's really booming then on the UI sector at
the moment?
Speaker 3 (07:38):
Would you say?
Speaker 1 (07:40):
So?
Speaker 3 (07:41):
The main things have been things like hardware that goes
into sort of data centers, so your semiconductors, so you've
seen big moves and you know your videos and your
tight on semiconductors. Even there's been a direct response to
you things that you wouldn't think would have AO exposure.
(08:02):
So one example that's always given is Caterpillar sort of
you know, the bulldozers and diggers. They've had a really
good sort of twelve to eighteen months driven by the
amount of infrastructure spin there was on these data centers
and they're sort of equipment that's required to build these. Yes,
obviously there's a big flow on effect. So anything that's
sort of that sort of data center hardware space that's
(08:23):
done really really.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Well crags ip Sam. How do people get in touch?
Speaker 3 (08:27):
So it gives us a call on two O nine
zero one five' three or composit us at one Er
street just office at The Gor new or good.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
On Your, Sam thanks for your time as always.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Awesome Teth.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Sam ground And Craigs Investment partners based here In. Gor
you're listening to the muster up Next Warren ross based
at Way mumu
Just send you the Muster Financial segment with Craig's Investment
Partners in Gore. This information is general in nature and
it's not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice
Provider Disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Sam Ground and Craig's Investment Partners joins us this afternoon
on the must Good afternoon, How things good?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Thanks any yet? NOA doing pretty well surviving the winter.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
The Reserve Bank move rates for the first time in
years YOCA increased by twenty five basis points.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Yeah, absolutely so, pretty big news for the New Zealand economy.
So we've been going through a cycle of make cuts
for quite a few years now after we saw that
high inflationary period and to the Evans economy slowed and
then perfectly what we've seen is a bit of inflation
(00:58):
coming back into the economy, primarily driven by what's happened
on and I ran over the last sort of three
months with finding a fuel supply and the sort of
shoot up and prices, and it's sort of flow on
effect it can have to the with the economy is
just sort of every thing that comes domestically and internationally
(01:18):
generalize on fuel to get it where it's going, and
obviously that cost has to be passed on eventually, but it's
sort of effigially inflationary prices up. So he was saying
there was a bank get ahead of it a wee bit.
There was a bit of talk about whether they would
actually do it, but you know, I think the last
two times a bit a bit slow in terms of
(01:39):
rising rates. When during COVID when there's a lot of
sort of government spending and then maybe a wee bit
slow to cut rates as I saw the economy slow.
So I think the effected some of their decision making
to make sure they've sort of went to sort of
too delayed in getting getting a bit of a result.
So yeah, obviously really trying to keep inflation in that
(02:01):
sort of one to three percent target.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
So are you thinking there'll be more rises before the
end of the year.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
So market as effectively pricing and potentially one more, but yeah,
I'll see a webit to be Seeing that the Reserve
Bank did say that they expect inflation to stay in
that one to three percent target, it's a good chance
that maybe not, and that the sort of need to
an outlook has improved on sort of oil and gas,
(02:29):
and obviously fertilizer prices sort of all down from their high,
so you wou'd expect that sort of normalizes and at
least sort of stays where it is or goes lower,
that that sort of inflation pressure should sort of.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Fall off the webit And that's the issue around inflation.
I suppose you talk about on fare on farm inflation
all the time and everything is still uncertain, I'd imagine, oh.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
Absolutely, Yeah, No, I think it sorts the days who
get long and the wather gets warmer, and your sort
of alliance on fuel to get your check to work,
and things like fertilizer pot costs that are still coming
into the season. Yeah, it probably makes you a wee
bit nervous potentially, And yet sort of talking to a
lot of farmers spefically Frontier farmers, they've got that sort
(03:12):
of capital payback from Frontier I don't know a lot
of it sort of to go to different payment, but
those that didn't need to repay the sort of keeping
it at a dry powder just a itchems to absorb it.
A costs that given the level of uncertainty at the moment.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
As far as on farm inflation, can we see it
kind of flattening out over the next six months and.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Perhaps Yeah, definitely where things are sort of assuming things
don't escalate, you tend to say there's probably gonna be
a wee bit more of a normalization. It's that fuel
prices come back, and that's sort of where there was
a bank sort of sea things sitting. Is a wee
bit more of a normalization in terms of pricing, which
sort of should hopefully keep inflation in that one to
three percent target range.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Now, the New Zealand economy it's still uneven. We get
told all the time about what Southland brings to the
table Entertago for that matter, regarding GDP figure, but up
north it's a different story.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
Yeah, absolutely so still sort of got that through state
economy where the regions are doing really well. Particularly Southland
is probably even the better of the out of all
the regions doing the best. But you have seen it
even in the North Island where outside the major centers
things are a lot better than what they are or
(04:23):
what you do see in Auckland and Wellington. I was
up in Auckland a couple of weeks ago and sort
of talking to some of the colleagues up there, and yeah,
sort of very very different conversations to what I'm having
with clients down here, sort of talking about things being
really tough in sort of cost of living, fishes and
all that kind of stuff. So yeah, definitely feels like
(04:45):
a different world down here compared to sort of the
likes of Wellington Auckland. And yeah, I know where I'd
rather be.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Well your population base, the argument there is totong and
North and as a result of that, that is where
a lot of money in this country is based, and
their projections I suppose just reflect the mood of the
population mass.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
Absolutely. Yeah, At the end of the day, population does
drive a lot of stuff, including cinnamon and the New
Zealand economy. So if you've got a large portion of
the population finding it tough, then that is quite a
big driver effectively. And yeah, yeah, I can understand why
it sort of drives a lot of the conversation when
that's what majority of New Zealand's.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Feeling and UIs surning season is starting, we're hearing some
robust second quarter results, especially with tech companies.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
Yeah, yeah, so you're going to be a sort of
interesting couple of weeks have already sort of started that process.
The three months on the on effectively, in specially the
US market was really really, really strong despite sort of
the what's been happening in Iran. Obviously, the sort of
(05:54):
hyperscaling of AI and sort of impact that's going to
have on companies is going to be really ri steen.
We saw IBM report overnight so and their ship prices
down twenty five percent overnight, which is quite massive, and
it's all been driven by a sort of impact of AI.
So for IBM's case, I've seen a reduced amount of
(06:17):
spinning on a lot of his software services, with people
sort of prioritizing AI spin, particularly on hardware as hardware
prices have shot up. A lot of the sort of
the corporates are sort of stopped buying but a hardware
to hopefully protict themselves against any further price rises. And
then what we're also seen as partie in IBM's case
(06:41):
is a lot more spinning and sort of cybersecurity as well,
So sort of the announcement around Claudes and topic mythis
and it's potential to particually get into enterprises and sort
of get around the cybersecurity. So I've seen a lot
more spinding sort of the cybersecurity space, so it's going
(07:02):
to be sort of potentially some big one of them
losers which would be quite interested in the reporting season.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
So we're starting to see AI have a real effect
on the earning season as such. Is that a fair
comed Yeah?
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Absolutely yes. So you know, with effectively IBM sort of
well below where people expected them to be in terms
of revenue. You're just sort of sort of changing spending habits.
Given the sort of AI boom at the moment, you
so be big beneficiaries out of that and sort of
some potential losers at least in the short term, your
long term sort of sort of uncertainty where things will
(07:35):
end up.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
So what's really booming then on the UI sector at
the moment?
Speaker 3 (07:38):
Would you say?
Speaker 1 (07:40):
So?
Speaker 3 (07:41):
The main things have been things like hardware that goes
into sort of data centers, so your semiconductors, so you've
seen big moves and you know your videos and your
tight on semiconductors. Even there's been a direct response to
you things that you wouldn't think would have AO exposure.
(08:02):
So one example that's always given is Caterpillar sort of
you know, the bulldozers and diggers. They've had a really
good sort of twelve to eighteen months driven by the
amount of infrastructure spin there was on these data centers
and they're sort of equipment that's required to build these. Yes,
obviously there's a big flow on effect. So anything that's
sort of that sort of data center hardware space that's
(08:23):
done really really.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Well crags ip Sam. How do people get in touch?
Speaker 3 (08:27):
So it gives us a call on two O nine
zero one five' three or composit us at one Er
street just office at The Gor new or good.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
On Your, Sam thanks for your time as always.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Awesome Teth.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Sam ground And Craigs Investment partners based here In. Gor
you're listening to the muster up Next Warren ross based
at Way mumu
Popular Podcasts
Betrayal Weekly
Betrayal Weekly is back for a new season. Every Thursday, Betrayal Weekly shares first-hand accounts of broken trust, shocking deceptions, and the trail of destruction they leave behind. Hosted by Andrea Gunning, this weekly ongoing series digs into real-life stories of betrayal and the aftermath. From stories of double lives to dark discoveries, these are cautionary tales and accounts of resilience against all odds. From the producers of the critically acclaimed Betrayal series, Betrayal Weekly drops new episodes every Thursday. If you would like to share your story, you can reach out to the Betrayal Team by emailing them at betrayalpod@gmail.com and follow us on Instagram at @betrayalpod and @glasspodcasts. Please join our Substack for additional exclusive content, curated book recommendations, and community discussions. Sign up FREE by clicking this link Beyond Betrayal Substack. Join our community dedicated to truth, resilience, and healing. Your voice matters! Be a part of our Betrayal journey on Substack.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com