May 6, 2026 • 8 mins
Terry Collins says NZ is looking ok for fuel supply; its the price that needs to drop.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Keeps misseearching for a lot. Welcome back to the muster.
Terry Collins as fuel spokesperson for the AA. We caught
up with Terry or probably about six weeks or so
now in the past and he told us diesel wouldn't
spike above four dollars. He was right. We got to
(00:22):
three dollars ninety nine. Terry, good afternoon. We talked to
you six weeks later. It's kind of a bit more
certainty regarding fuel, but at the same time still probably
not so much as well, Yeah, it's.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
A certain world we live in and it's still volatile
because nothing's been settled around that straighter will move and
along it goes on the bigger the impacts. Unfortunately, when
we were talking about it wouldn't get to four dollars.
What happened at next stage was basically the refineries would
sell to two markets won the contract markets like ourselves,
(00:56):
go to different countries longstead wish the relationship, but they
also sell on what's name to bot market. Well, that
spot market price for a barrel of diesel got to
three hundred and fifty dollars UIs of barrel, and that
was at the same time they were talking about the
price being about one hundred and ten dollars a barrel,
So the priced in this huge amount of risk. And
(01:16):
when we also saw those high prices, two things happened.
We saw record high prices and record low margins from
the companies. I know some of your listeners will find
that hard to believe, but the oil company then what
happened was they announced the ceasefire, the price of the
oil started coming down to a more reasonable level. That risk,
the insurance, the price of risk. They de risked and
(01:39):
took the monetary value out of it, so it started
coming down into about the one forty range one fifty,
and that's still when the price of oil was supposedly
one hundred one hundred and ten. The refiners had to
pay about one hundred and fifty somewhere around there for
their will and so it came down and then we
kind of looked for a price stabilization, and then the
oil company started taking their margin back up as a
(02:01):
price settled, because they had to recover what they've lost
in the previous weeks. And we've still got a little
bit of easing coming down now. I still think that
with a little bit of movement. I know with the
ninety one you can get it well. Last Friday, I
think with a couple of specials at places, it was
blow three dollars, But anywhere around that three ten is
a good bye right now, or below if you get
(02:21):
it on discount. And the diesel's starting to ease back
as well. But we're an international market and we're coming
into the springtime. Over America, they're also feeling the crunch
for record hype prices of petrol and diesel, and they're
entering the kind of spring planting season, so there'll be
an international spike for diesel still, So long term, I
(02:44):
don't expect these prices to be dropping down substantially for
at least a few months yet, at least three. But
I don't see them spiking back up to four dollars either.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Now explained the spot market as such. Regarding fuel, what
people don't realize is that most of the fuel so
than the world, doesn't actually get delivered.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
They have something called a futures market, and it's like
day traders. They try to buy it, say one hundred
and two dollars a barrel, and then the sissy gets
to one hundred and five one hundred and six they
might sell it, and so when you look at the
price of oil today, it's for July delivery, and so
they've got something like six weeks where they might could
be that barrel of world could be a fusion that
one hundred thousand barrels, but that could be sold for
(03:25):
six times with everybody just taking the margin until finally
at the end of the future's contract it has to
be delivered at a particular point to go on. And
then that inat is the physical market where the refiners
are looking to buy the oil, get it to their refinery,
and then depending on buying what they're optimized and what
the demand is, they either make it their making diesel
(03:45):
and jet fuel and petrol out of it, with a
whole lot of by products like bitcherlan and natur and
other onands.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
Would you say New Zealand's handle this situation as good
as any country.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
I think the government's done a great job on it.
To be honest, of doctors are guaranteed the supply. I've
been involved in some working groups behind the scene dealing
with the transport industry and the users of diesel with
it with the farming excepted the agricultural or horticultural sector,
and the logistics about demands and how they should prioritize
(04:18):
the use of it. We don't have a fuel supply problem.
We are a rich enough country to be able to
afford it. There are many others like the Philippines, et cetera,
that aren't in their position like ourselves. But because we
can afford it, we have to pay a premium for it,
and we pay a premium because we have good fuel.
That's the other one as well. We don't have low
speck fuel. We've got good fuel. Unfortunately, because of what's
(04:41):
been happening in the Middle East, we will continue to
get it, but we'll have to pay for it at
a high price.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Regarding the Ukraine conflict, not that long ago, Terry, We're
talking about the Russia Ukraine situation and the spike we
had in fuel, But we can take that out of
the equation. This is purely based on the Middle East.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
We can't. Why I say that is because the Ukraine
conflict still realize upon Russian oil into the market. And
what has happened is that the US, to try and
lower the cost of fuel, has now taken sanctions off
the refined product and oil coming out of Russia that's
been balanced against the Ukrainian improvement and long range weaponry
(05:24):
which has now been used to attack those very same
refineries to try and restrict the amount of fuel that
the Russians can sell and in front of their war effort.
So it's just into another dynamics phrase. Faith Sorry. What
you generally find every time there's a big disruption like this,
it usually takes a couple of years to sort it out.
What will happen I think long term is that people
(05:44):
will look for turnative routes to get their will out
of the producers countries and away from stratical moves. Whether
they do pipelines for some other ones to take it
out to the Red Sea or another kind of port
facilities where they don't have to go through that pinch points,
that will take a few years for those things to
be built in the need to what we need to
(06:06):
see is some kind of resolution to the conflict. And
to be honest, I think President Trump is panicky now.
He's got midterms coming up in November. He's got high inflation,
cost of living is a major electoral issue over there,
and the prices of fuel and and inflation are ramping
up over there, so he's under a bit of pressure
himself to try and resolve this issue where it's in
(06:28):
the Urania and interest to make him suffer the plain
economically because they can't beat the military.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
So as far as the supplied chain, I mean, you
talk about the big three that we're getting told about
all the time, being fertilizer, fuel, and plastics, that's just
going to be it's just going to be an ongoing
concern or issue, I suppose for the next while.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
It is because alba bear of the oil produced in
the world, sixty decent goes to transport so that users
their planes, attracting their boats, et cetera. Our forestry, which
is under a bit of pressure right now the price
of logs and the price of diesel. But the other
forty percent used to produce things like urea tapix, everything
(07:09):
from their puffer jackets to their half their cars and
all the other componentory that goes around at the Schman
et cetera, is all made out of oral and so
those prices increases will flow through all those products and
the logistics and transportation of all those products.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Yeah, I see an opportunity for Wall just as a byline.
They're interesting. Hey, just finally, I suppose the key messaging
is regarding the fuel situation. We have the fuel, it'll
just be at a price we have And.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
The government's even gone further the way that they've handled
it by putting on an extra ninety million liters of
storage for diesel up at Marsden Point Channel infrastructure, So
the recommissioned fitt of the tanks that were decommissioned when
the Marsden Point refinery shut down. That will give us
the clean war storage on land. But they've got a
really good way where they've just been tracking the ships.
(07:59):
They've got assurance from the major supplies, like you said
that the contract will be honored. We have a good
relationship with major supplies South Korea and Singapore who are
basically with Singapore in particular, the government's on a bileteral
abreamleks Ago. We're a free flower patrol them and farm
(08:20):
super cools. So we've got the stew way floating. That's guarantee.
We'll get petrol off them. We'll give them and we've
sat them in pharmaceuticals and others things, so we've got it.
We're just Unfortunately, gonna have to pay for it.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Good only Terry. Always appreciate your time.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
Thanks seeing me all right, Terry.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
Collins, fuel spokesperson for the AA. So, like Terry said,
we've got fuel, We're just going to have to pay
for it. Although discount out the pumps today as well.
If you're coming into town, Jim Risk is up next
and the Beef and Lamb slute then residents supporting Gary
Nathan Burnan joins us
Keeps misseearching for a lot. Welcome back to the muster.
Terry Collins as fuel spokesperson for the AA. We caught
up with Terry or probably about six weeks or so
now in the past and he told us diesel wouldn't
spike above four dollars. He was right. We got to
(00:22):
three dollars ninety nine. Terry, good afternoon. We talked to
you six weeks later. It's kind of a bit more
certainty regarding fuel, but at the same time still probably
not so much as well, Yeah, it's.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
A certain world we live in and it's still volatile
because nothing's been settled around that straighter will move and
along it goes on the bigger the impacts. Unfortunately, when
we were talking about it wouldn't get to four dollars.
What happened at next stage was basically the refineries would
sell to two markets won the contract markets like ourselves,
(00:56):
go to different countries longstead wish the relationship, but they
also sell on what's name to bot market. Well, that
spot market price for a barrel of diesel got to
three hundred and fifty dollars UIs of barrel, and that
was at the same time they were talking about the
price being about one hundred and ten dollars a barrel,
So the priced in this huge amount of risk. And
(01:16):
when we also saw those high prices, two things happened.
We saw record high prices and record low margins from
the companies. I know some of your listeners will find
that hard to believe, but the oil company then what
happened was they announced the ceasefire, the price of the
oil started coming down to a more reasonable level. That risk,
the insurance, the price of risk. They de risked and
(01:39):
took the monetary value out of it, so it started
coming down into about the one forty range one fifty,
and that's still when the price of oil was supposedly
one hundred one hundred and ten. The refiners had to
pay about one hundred and fifty somewhere around there for
their will and so it came down and then we
kind of looked for a price stabilization, and then the
oil company started taking their margin back up as a
(02:01):
price settled, because they had to recover what they've lost
in the previous weeks. And we've still got a little
bit of easing coming down now. I still think that
with a little bit of movement. I know with the
ninety one you can get it well. Last Friday, I
think with a couple of specials at places, it was
blow three dollars, But anywhere around that three ten is
a good bye right now, or below if you get
(02:21):
it on discount. And the diesel's starting to ease back
as well. But we're an international market and we're coming
into the springtime. Over America, they're also feeling the crunch
for record hype prices of petrol and diesel, and they're
entering the kind of spring planting season, so there'll be
an international spike for diesel still, So long term, I
(02:44):
don't expect these prices to be dropping down substantially for
at least a few months yet, at least three. But
I don't see them spiking back up to four dollars either.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Now explained the spot market as such. Regarding fuel, what
people don't realize is that most of the fuel so
than the world, doesn't actually get delivered.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
They have something called a futures market, and it's like
day traders. They try to buy it, say one hundred
and two dollars a barrel, and then the sissy gets
to one hundred and five one hundred and six they
might sell it, and so when you look at the
price of oil today, it's for July delivery, and so
they've got something like six weeks where they might could
be that barrel of world could be a fusion that
one hundred thousand barrels, but that could be sold for
(03:25):
six times with everybody just taking the margin until finally
at the end of the future's contract it has to
be delivered at a particular point to go on. And
then that inat is the physical market where the refiners
are looking to buy the oil, get it to their refinery,
and then depending on buying what they're optimized and what
the demand is, they either make it their making diesel
(03:45):
and jet fuel and petrol out of it, with a
whole lot of by products like bitcherlan and natur and
other onands.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
Would you say New Zealand's handle this situation as good
as any country.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
I think the government's done a great job on it.
To be honest, of doctors are guaranteed the supply. I've
been involved in some working groups behind the scene dealing
with the transport industry and the users of diesel with
it with the farming excepted the agricultural or horticultural sector,
and the logistics about demands and how they should prioritize
(04:18):
the use of it. We don't have a fuel supply problem.
We are a rich enough country to be able to
afford it. There are many others like the Philippines, et cetera,
that aren't in their position like ourselves. But because we
can afford it, we have to pay a premium for it,
and we pay a premium because we have good fuel.
That's the other one as well. We don't have low
speck fuel. We've got good fuel. Unfortunately, because of what's
(04:41):
been happening in the Middle East, we will continue to
get it, but we'll have to pay for it at
a high price.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Regarding the Ukraine conflict, not that long ago, Terry, We're
talking about the Russia Ukraine situation and the spike we
had in fuel, But we can take that out of
the equation. This is purely based on the Middle East.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
We can't. Why I say that is because the Ukraine
conflict still realize upon Russian oil into the market. And
what has happened is that the US, to try and
lower the cost of fuel, has now taken sanctions off
the refined product and oil coming out of Russia that's
been balanced against the Ukrainian improvement and long range weaponry
(05:24):
which has now been used to attack those very same
refineries to try and restrict the amount of fuel that
the Russians can sell and in front of their war effort.
So it's just into another dynamics phrase. Faith Sorry. What
you generally find every time there's a big disruption like this,
it usually takes a couple of years to sort it out.
What will happen I think long term is that people
(05:44):
will look for turnative routes to get their will out
of the producers countries and away from stratical moves. Whether
they do pipelines for some other ones to take it
out to the Red Sea or another kind of port
facilities where they don't have to go through that pinch points,
that will take a few years for those things to
be built in the need to what we need to
(06:06):
see is some kind of resolution to the conflict. And
to be honest, I think President Trump is panicky now.
He's got midterms coming up in November. He's got high inflation,
cost of living is a major electoral issue over there,
and the prices of fuel and and inflation are ramping
up over there, so he's under a bit of pressure
himself to try and resolve this issue where it's in
(06:28):
the Urania and interest to make him suffer the plain
economically because they can't beat the military.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
So as far as the supplied chain, I mean, you
talk about the big three that we're getting told about
all the time, being fertilizer, fuel, and plastics, that's just
going to be it's just going to be an ongoing
concern or issue, I suppose for the next while.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
It is because alba bear of the oil produced in
the world, sixty decent goes to transport so that users
their planes, attracting their boats, et cetera. Our forestry, which
is under a bit of pressure right now the price
of logs and the price of diesel. But the other
forty percent used to produce things like urea tapix, everything
(07:09):
from their puffer jackets to their half their cars and
all the other componentory that goes around at the Schman
et cetera, is all made out of oral and so
those prices increases will flow through all those products and
the logistics and transportation of all those products.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Yeah, I see an opportunity for Wall just as a byline.
They're interesting. Hey, just finally, I suppose the key messaging
is regarding the fuel situation. We have the fuel, it'll
just be at a price we have And.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
The government's even gone further the way that they've handled
it by putting on an extra ninety million liters of
storage for diesel up at Marsden Point Channel infrastructure, So
the recommissioned fitt of the tanks that were decommissioned when
the Marsden Point refinery shut down. That will give us
the clean war storage on land. But they've got a
really good way where they've just been tracking the ships.
(07:59):
They've got assurance from the major supplies, like you said
that the contract will be honored. We have a good
relationship with major supplies South Korea and Singapore who are
basically with Singapore in particular, the government's on a bileteral
abreamleks Ago. We're a free flower patrol them and farm
(08:20):
super cools. So we've got the stew way floating. That's guarantee.
We'll get petrol off them. We'll give them and we've
sat them in pharmaceuticals and others things, so we've got it.
We're just Unfortunately, gonna have to pay for it.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Good only Terry. Always appreciate your time.
Speaker 2 (08:34):
Thanks seeing me all right, Terry.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
Collins, fuel spokesperson for the AA. So, like Terry said,
we've got fuel, We're just going to have to pay
for it. Although discount out the pumps today as well.
If you're coming into town, Jim Risk is up next
and the Beef and Lamb slute then residents supporting Gary
Nathan Burnan joins us
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