August 11, 2026 • 7 mins
Tom Shallard of Craigs IP looks at positives in the NZ financial sector.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
The must Have financial segment with Craig's Investment Partners in Gore.
This information is general in nature and it's not financial advice.
Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice Provider Disclosure statement can
be found at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Tom Shall, out of Craig's Investment Partners, joins us in
studio once again.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Good afternoon, Good afternoon, Andy. We're getting through the wind,
n't where it's starting to starting to feel a bit brighter.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Yeah, it is, and you'd like to think so for
the middle of August, and arguably there could still be
a sting in the tail. We won't talk about that today,
but you know, you've got a bit of blue sky
around last over the last couple of days, and you
just look for the positives.
Speaker 4 (00:45):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
It's probably been pretty pretty good to us so far.
So let's hope that rolls through to September.
Speaker 4 (00:51):
No lambs on the shell up farm yet, No, not.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
Yet, Andy, hopefully the month away.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Yeah, that's the way you want it, artificial And tell gens,
how is the story evolving. Well, it's a hell of
a statement for a start, because straight off the cuff
you just say it's going everywhere.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Here's definitely the pace of changes as rapid. Artificial intelligence
remains one of the dominant themes, dominant investment themes globally,
So the Emerging Markets INDEXES is interestingly outperforming many developed
markets here today. That's that that component of that is
(01:30):
China and South Korea, and they produce a lot of
a lot of semiconductors which have driven markets over the
last year. But a lot of attention has focused on
companies building data centers, as I said, manufacturing semiconductors and
cloud infrastructure. But we think the next phase potentially looks
quite different. So historically, major technological revolutions don't just create
(01:55):
one investment case, and we're sort of started to see
that that broadened in the market. How they tend to
create waves of opportunities and early winners, you know, often
the infrastructure builders, but letter winners tend to be businesses
that successfully adopt the technology.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Is that what you're seeing with AI in your line
of work? Is it that relevant?
Speaker 4 (02:17):
Yep?
Speaker 2 (02:17):
No, it is.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
It is changing a lot, not sort of something we
tend to use so much, but obviously the companies we
invest in a big adopters and that's healthcare, innovation, biotechnology, robotics, automation,
and advanced manufacturing. So yeah, there are some parts of
I guess services businesses like product enhancing software which will
(02:41):
ultimately lead to some form of efficiency gains and the
automation and tasks that humans will no longer need to do.
So yeah, the rate of change across probably all sectors
is very very fast.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
What are some scenarios that it can do, for example.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
It's more what it can do to to enterprises and
and and honestly what what will flow through to the
bottom line. So it's not going to necessarily replace people's jobs,
but it should make every unit of labor a lot
more efficient and.
Speaker 4 (03:13):
So effectively replaced jobs down.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
The line potentially. But it should also make the human
and control a lot more efficient, so so every hour
of their time they can achieve more work. But yeah,
ultimately you're already seeing some degree of job cuts and
through the likes of the big banks in Australia. So yeah,
that is a reality commercial reality of AI. But we
(03:40):
sort of more look at it broadly, and that's like
AI solving healthcare problems and you know, some automation and
and and advanced manufacturing.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
A big week, a big week of data ahead.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
Yeah, look at here. There's there's several important events on
the calendar. So in the United States, inflation data, retail sales,
consumer confidence figures. We'll see all of them this week
and that will shape your expectations for future federal reserve decisions.
Closer to home, reserve being for Australia's releasing a monetary
(04:20):
policy statement, and the New Zealand. Investors continue to monitor
inflation expectations. We've got some manufacturing activity data this week
and net migration data, which is always interesting. But yeah, overall,
the market appears increasingly comfortable with the current outlook. Economic
growth remains positive, and corporate earnings are well. They've generally
(04:43):
exceeded expectations.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
The reporting season in the States I talked about this
David a couple of weeks ago hasn't been favorable.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
Yep, at technology into things that the corporate earnings have
been phenomenal. So, yeah, earnings growth and large cap us
tech has grown by about twenty one percent a year
on year.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
All these tech companies and phone companies, they're just going gangbusters.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Yeah, tich tech tech generally, but it's not driven by
multiple expansions, So that's not the company getting more expensive
to buy. It's driven by the increase in the underlying earnings,
so on a valuation basis that they're actually reasonably valued.
Well whilst you know, the headline prices is more expensive
than a year ago.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Right you reckon, we need to take a long term
view on things.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Yeah, So as investors, it's pretty easy to be distracted
by the noise of day to day headlines. You know,
we think the last fourteen odd months we've had we've
had tariffs, we've had a war. You know, we've potentially
got higher inflation from increased energy costs, and there's always
you know, releases of different economic data. But the successful
(05:55):
investors are the ones that understand that that good outcomes
don't don't come from reacting to every headline. Markets will
always face uncertainty, but yeah, that's that's not something to fear.
That's sort of the price to pay for the opportunity
to grow wealth over time in the markets. Yes, I
guess final message there and take take a long term view,
(06:19):
stay diversified, and you remember, success in markets really comes
from those who predict every twist and turn. It's it's
won by owning good assets at reasonable prices, businesses that
are going to consistently grow the runings over time and
and and are supported by long term structural tails.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Question, how do markets react to inflammatory headlines at the moment?
Speaker 4 (06:45):
Given what's going on around the world.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
The story of the last two years, Andy has been volatility,
so you do sort of see bigger intraday swings than
we would have seen in the past. Trump administrations tend
to be headline driven markets, and that's that's holding true.
Speaker 4 (07:01):
And you've only said Trump once in this whole interview.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
I almost got through.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Craig's ip. You're in that nice new building, pretty warm
at the moment. I'd imagine where are you're located.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
Ye call onto the office at one Arc Street, Gore,
or give me a call on three two O nine
one two.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
Tom Shellard always good to catch up.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
Thanks Eddie.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
Tom Shellard of Craig's and Vestment Partners based here in Gore,
opposite New World, in that cozy little.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
Building they've got.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
It's not a little actually nice and spacious. Go and
see the team as well. Regarding anything you want to
know regarding investment.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
Don Moore's up next. That's stop falling by the way.
The must Have financial segment with Craig's Investment Partners in Gore.
This information is general in nature and it's not financial advice.
Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice Provider Disclosure statement can
be found at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Tom Shall, out of Craig's Investment Partners, joins us in
studio once again.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Good afternoon, Good afternoon, Andy. We're getting through the wind,
n't where it's starting to starting to feel a bit brighter.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Yeah, it is, and you'd like to think so for
the middle of August, and arguably there could still be
a sting in the tail. We won't talk about that today,
but you know, you've got a bit of blue sky
around last over the last couple of days, and you
just look for the positives.
Speaker 4 (00:45):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
It's probably been pretty pretty good to us so far.
So let's hope that rolls through to September.
Speaker 4 (00:51):
No lambs on the shell up farm yet, No, not.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
Yet, Andy, hopefully the month away.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Yeah, that's the way you want it, artificial And tell gens,
how is the story evolving. Well, it's a hell of
a statement for a start, because straight off the cuff
you just say it's going everywhere.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
Here's definitely the pace of changes as rapid. Artificial intelligence
remains one of the dominant themes, dominant investment themes globally,
So the Emerging Markets INDEXES is interestingly outperforming many developed
markets here today. That's that that component of that is
(01:30):
China and South Korea, and they produce a lot of
a lot of semiconductors which have driven markets over the
last year. But a lot of attention has focused on
companies building data centers, as I said, manufacturing semiconductors and
cloud infrastructure. But we think the next phase potentially looks
quite different. So historically, major technological revolutions don't just create
(01:55):
one investment case, and we're sort of started to see
that that broadened in the market. How they tend to
create waves of opportunities and early winners, you know, often
the infrastructure builders, but letter winners tend to be businesses
that successfully adopt the technology.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Is that what you're seeing with AI in your line
of work? Is it that relevant?
Speaker 4 (02:17):
Yep?
Speaker 2 (02:17):
No, it is.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
It is changing a lot, not sort of something we
tend to use so much, but obviously the companies we
invest in a big adopters and that's healthcare, innovation, biotechnology, robotics, automation,
and advanced manufacturing. So yeah, there are some parts of
I guess services businesses like product enhancing software which will
(02:41):
ultimately lead to some form of efficiency gains and the
automation and tasks that humans will no longer need to do.
So yeah, the rate of change across probably all sectors
is very very fast.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
What are some scenarios that it can do, for example.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
It's more what it can do to to enterprises and
and and honestly what what will flow through to the
bottom line. So it's not going to necessarily replace people's jobs,
but it should make every unit of labor a lot
more efficient and.
Speaker 4 (03:13):
So effectively replaced jobs down.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
The line potentially. But it should also make the human
and control a lot more efficient, so so every hour
of their time they can achieve more work. But yeah,
ultimately you're already seeing some degree of job cuts and
through the likes of the big banks in Australia. So yeah,
that is a reality commercial reality of AI. But we
(03:40):
sort of more look at it broadly, and that's like
AI solving healthcare problems and you know, some automation and
and and advanced manufacturing.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
A big week, a big week of data ahead.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
Yeah, look at here. There's there's several important events on
the calendar. So in the United States, inflation data, retail sales,
consumer confidence figures. We'll see all of them this week
and that will shape your expectations for future federal reserve decisions.
Closer to home, reserve being for Australia's releasing a monetary
(04:20):
policy statement, and the New Zealand. Investors continue to monitor
inflation expectations. We've got some manufacturing activity data this week
and net migration data, which is always interesting. But yeah, overall,
the market appears increasingly comfortable with the current outlook. Economic
growth remains positive, and corporate earnings are well. They've generally
(04:43):
exceeded expectations.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
The reporting season in the States I talked about this
David a couple of weeks ago hasn't been favorable.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
Yep, at technology into things that the corporate earnings have
been phenomenal. So, yeah, earnings growth and large cap us
tech has grown by about twenty one percent a year
on year.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
All these tech companies and phone companies, they're just going gangbusters.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Yeah, tich tech tech generally, but it's not driven by
multiple expansions, So that's not the company getting more expensive
to buy. It's driven by the increase in the underlying earnings,
so on a valuation basis that they're actually reasonably valued.
Well whilst you know, the headline prices is more expensive
than a year ago.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Right you reckon, we need to take a long term
view on things.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Yeah, So as investors, it's pretty easy to be distracted
by the noise of day to day headlines. You know,
we think the last fourteen odd months we've had we've
had tariffs, we've had a war. You know, we've potentially
got higher inflation from increased energy costs, and there's always
you know, releases of different economic data. But the successful
(05:55):
investors are the ones that understand that that good outcomes
don't don't come from reacting to every headline. Markets will
always face uncertainty, but yeah, that's that's not something to fear.
That's sort of the price to pay for the opportunity
to grow wealth over time in the markets. Yes, I
guess final message there and take take a long term view,
(06:19):
stay diversified, and you remember, success in markets really comes
from those who predict every twist and turn. It's it's
won by owning good assets at reasonable prices, businesses that
are going to consistently grow the runings over time and
and and are supported by long term structural tails.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Question, how do markets react to inflammatory headlines at the moment?
Speaker 4 (06:45):
Given what's going on around the world.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
The story of the last two years, Andy has been volatility,
so you do sort of see bigger intraday swings than
we would have seen in the past. Trump administrations tend
to be headline driven markets, and that's that's holding true.
Speaker 4 (07:01):
And you've only said Trump once in this whole interview.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
I almost got through.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Craig's ip. You're in that nice new building, pretty warm
at the moment. I'd imagine where are you're located.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
Ye call onto the office at one Arc Street, Gore,
or give me a call on three two O nine
one two.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
Tom Shellard always good to catch up.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
Thanks Eddie.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
Tom Shellard of Craig's and Vestment Partners based here in Gore,
opposite New World, in that cozy little.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
Building they've got.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
It's not a little actually nice and spacious. Go and
see the team as well. Regarding anything you want to
know regarding investment.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
Don Moore's up next. That's stop falling by the way.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by Audiochuck Media Company.
NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal
Gregg Rosenthal and a rotating crew of elite NFL Media co-hosts, including Patrick Claybon, Colleen Wolfe, Steve Wyche, Nick Shook and Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic get you caught up daily on all the NFL news and analysis you need to be smarter and funnier than your friends.