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October 31, 2025 11 mins
Crypto’s rally hit a policy reality check this week. Retail markets are in despair, and analysts are asking why is crypto down after FOMC rates cuts failed to jump start price moves.

~This Episode is sponsored by SALT~
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00:00 intro
00:04 Sponsor: SALT
00:35 Top Catalysts For Bull-Run
00:50 Government Shutdown Uncertainty
01:10 Tom Emmer: Tuesday Deadline?
01:49 Democrats Can Claim a Win?
02:29 Healthcare Crisis Needs To Be Addressed
02:59 Republicans Have Healthcare Plan?
03:46 Consumers Under Pressure
04:08 Chipotle Stock Crashes
04:46 Assets Beat Inflation
05:28 Tariff Deal Catalysts
05:59 Tariff Certainty Possible?
06:30 Tariff Rebate Checks?
06:52 Fed Quantitative Easing
07:55 SEC Retirement Accounts + Accredited Investor Ban
08:46 CLARITY Act in 2025?
09:20 Ethereum Upgrade
09:47 Tokenization + A.I. + Stablecoins
10:21 Other Countries Moving Into Crypto
11:03 outro

#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum
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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Raging bull market could be brewing today. We'll break it
down for you. Don't want to miss it. It's going
to be a good one. Let's just jump right into it.
I do want to thank our sponsor, and that is
salt Lending. You can actually take advantage of down trends
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(00:21):
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is the no liquidation solution. Let them know we sent
you by using linked down below. All right, let's get
into it today. And this is getting into some interesting points.
And what I'm going to try to do for you
today is outline all the bullish scenarios that could play

(00:45):
into a recovery of what we're seeing right now. And
it's going to start with the biggest thing of all,
and that is a government shutdown. Now, if the government
shutdown gets redirected, because remember poly market is all over
the place right now, it doesn't know what's going to happen,
which is kind of the peak of uncertainty in itself,
is that even the gamblers out there that are trying

(01:06):
to understand where this is going do not completely get
what's going on in DC.

Speaker 2 (01:11):
So I want to go to a couple of clips.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
This, of course is mister Tom Emmer, and he breaks
down a couple of points of how this might be
able to end on Tuesday.

Speaker 2 (01:20):
Take a look, what's your timeline on it? If you
had to make an estimate.

Speaker 3 (01:24):
I'm not the one making the but you understand this.

Speaker 4 (01:27):
I'm telling you that.

Speaker 3 (01:28):
I sadly, I think their next inflection point is next Tuesday. Literally,
if they try to reopen the government beforehand, the very
people that they're afraid of in their party will absolutely
destroy them and may not show up Tuesdays. So they
keep the government closed through Tuesday, harm American people, just
to make a stay the miss all right.

Speaker 1 (01:48):
So what he's getting at is this is a critical
time for the Democrats of being able to look as
though they've kind of defended the position.

Speaker 2 (01:56):
And he goes on in the same.

Speaker 1 (01:58):
Clip to kind of break down that maybe there's a
window here for the Dems to actually come out looking good.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
Take a look, well, well this.

Speaker 4 (02:05):
What healthcare costs do go up, and they will in
certain parts of the country. There's no question that that's
directionally where this is going to go. Do you think
Democrats will get any credit when this is all over
for raising the red flag on that.

Speaker 3 (02:18):
They can try to claim the high ground on that,
but remember their argument about healthcare is completely false. Republicans
are going to move us forward and we've got to
reform the system, but you got to open up the
government first before you can get to that.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
All right, So one of the things Emma was getting to.

Speaker 1 (02:32):
Obviously the Dems could be in a position where they
showed that they fought.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
For the American voters.

Speaker 1 (02:37):
Now, one thing that plays into this is how does
this get corrected quickly? And what I'm talking about is
the health premiums. If we get the Republicans where we
get the government reopened and they come in with a plan,
if they're looming with a plan right now that could
immediately address this, that would be another catalyst going forward.

(02:57):
Here's Mike Johnson talking about that.

Speaker 5 (03:00):
So if the government reopened tonight, would Republicans have a
plan to address the Obamacare subjects?

Speaker 6 (03:06):
Yes, Yes, Yes, a good We have proposals too, Yeah,
we could have that ready immediately. Yes, we have ideas
on the table.

Speaker 5 (03:16):
Are you saying that there is a Republican plan and
you're just not talking about it.

Speaker 6 (03:19):
No, I'm saying there's lots of discussion about it, but
we don't relay it on a conference call with hundreds
of people listening.

Speaker 5 (03:25):
Then why not have that out there to talk about
in the public so the people can hear that debate happening.
I mean, you could have committees and session right now
they will, Klin, I'm talking about this.

Speaker 7 (03:35):
We've been working on it since day one of this Congress.
We worked on it in the years prior, and we've
already demonstrated this is not talking points for us. We've
demonstrated it. We put it into the one big, beautiful building,
all right.

Speaker 1 (03:47):
So there he was kind of defending the position. If
in fact that is true and the Republicans have something
looming that could be played into this, that could be
another catalyst going forward. Now, there are some other scenarios
that are playing into this, and that is the broader market,
the kind of pressure that the American consumer is getting.
Will it showed up in the Chipotle stock of all places.

Speaker 2 (04:08):
Take a look. Now, let's get to our churn of
the day. Look at this one.

Speaker 4 (04:11):
Chipotle shares taking a real big hit after luring a
sales outlook as consumers, they cut back on dining as
they're feeling the pressure from inflation.

Speaker 5 (04:19):
This has been a.

Speaker 8 (04:20):
Problem for a while. I've been fighting it. I was
looking for anything to be positive last night, anything at all.
There was not anything to be positive. I'm not sure
this leadership team is the right leadership team, and I
do not want to be emotional about it, but I
truly believe it. I sold out of it. I apologize
to anyone who followed me into it. Actually, I'm quite
tempted in Starbucks, to be honest with you.

Speaker 3 (04:42):
I think there's an obvious problem here that we're kind
of not touching on, which is the government shutdown.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
All right, so that analyst completely missed it there. I
think Chipotlee, this is something we've been talking about on
this channel right here for a while, and that is
that these corrected sales. The first place you would start
to see the ouch point occur was going to be
in the restaurant industry, and the big dog of the
restaurant industry has always been Chipotle.

Speaker 2 (05:04):
Well, on one hand, you have young.

Speaker 1 (05:05):
Americans now can no longer afford to buy Chipotle. But
on the other hand, you get the S and P
five hundred adding eighteen trillion in six months.

Speaker 2 (05:13):
What does that tell you, guys?

Speaker 1 (05:14):
It tells you that assets are the only way you
beat inflation. Whether it's digital assets, stocks and gold, anything
an asset that has good liquidity. This is the angle
for you. That's why you can come to this channel
and watch it. Let's get into a couple other points
right quick. I want to get into the potential of
the tariff agreements that could be done by November thirtieth.

(05:36):
Look at that list at Argentina, India, Brazil, Mexico, China.
Even at forty six percent, that one is the big
one right there, guys. If China has some sort of
even partial deal, that itself would be a fairly good catalyst.
But the problem is that you don't know, because it's Trump.
You don't know if there's going to be something that
comes out of left field again and wax the market

(05:56):
one more time and creates this crazy volatility. One thing
that would solidify that is if they pull the powers
from the president, and the powers from the President have
already passed through on this Senate resolution. Right here, we
had four Republicans siding with the Democrats. Now, I don't
think this happens, but if it were to happen, that
would be at least some sort of consistency that would

(06:21):
brew around tariffs. I think the markets would look at
that in a positive way, at least from a market standpoint.
The only thing is, I don't think the House will
even get close to passing that. One other thing, Trump says,
tariff's checks are probably coming for millions of Americans and soon.
This is another indicator, of course, that if we're doing
this much wealth transfer, the situation that is occurring with

(06:44):
these tariffs now to the point that the US government
is going to rebate the American people that is I
don't know if that would be a catalyst, but it
would change things dramatically. One other thing that could change
things is the liquidity programs and the balance sheets were
the FED and if you look at quantitative tightening, which
is ending on December first, the real question is when
would easing go into effect. When we saw easing kind

(07:08):
of kick in back in twenty twenty three. One of
the key things that occurred was back in March of
twenty twenty three, and the key element was what we
had seen with Silicon National Bank. And this was the
zone right here that I'm kind of pointing to on
the chart, and look at this. This is the uptrend
right here. That's the bitcoin chart right now. So granted,
it doesn't mean that that would happen on all risk assets,

(07:29):
but at the point is is easing will start to
change things around other things that could happen during this time.
Where we get easing is where the FED will start
buying bonds in the first quarter of twenty twenty six,
is one analyst talking about that, relaunching the balance sheet
explosion and then net purchase of about thirty five billion
in Treasury bonds per month. That's what would happen here

(07:50):
in terms of an easing cycle. So again, more catalysts
that play into a potential. All right, One other catalyst
I want to get to this is a clip on
Paul Atkins, who is waiting on shutdown for crypto retirement
accounts to possibly restructure and maybe even banning accredited investor requirements.

Speaker 2 (08:09):
Take a look as.

Speaker 9 (08:10):
Far as the retirement investments go, we're working with the
Department of Labor, and of course all this is affected
by the shutdowns, so we haven't really been able to
make much progress. And then on the individual elective investment side,
we will be looking at the credited investors' standard. Is
that still something that we should have or modify?

Speaker 1 (08:34):
All right, so you see the number of catalysts are
piling up.

Speaker 2 (08:38):
Here right guys.

Speaker 1 (08:39):
By the way, if you like this, make sure and
hit the like button. Let us know drop some comments
down below. It always does help these videos get out there.
The other thing that starts to leverage in is of
course the Clarity Act. And the Clarity Act I think
is maybe going to be the biggest element that could
really put this market back on its edge in terms
of in a positive way. Some say the committee could

(08:59):
move as as soon as tomorrow, Others say final preparations
mean it could slide into next week. I'm still kind
of twisted on this as to whether or not we
see this in twenty twenty five or we see coming
back in twenty twenty sex. I think it all boils
down to the shutdown. That's the delay issue and mechanism
that needs to occur for this to actually take place.
The Clarity Act would move markets in a big way.

(09:22):
Other things that would move market, of course, is we've
got the Fusaka upgrade occurring, and this is scheduled for
now for December third. And if you look at some
of the improvements right here, mainly what you're looking at
is the capacity through put and then of course the
fact that we're talking about less costs. All of this
blending into the last upgrade we had with Ethereum which

(09:45):
helped the market was Pactro. This I think is going
to do the same thing. The last catalyst area is
this nothing stops these categories that are growing. Of course,
we've talked about tokenized assets. This is going to explode.
You're going to also see AI and the interjection of
agentic payments X four h two. We did a whole
video on that. If you guys didn't watch it, go

(10:06):
back and watch it. It is a big, big deal
that is going to shift how AI is going to
be used on crypto. Then, of course you've got to
look at the global market overview, and this of course
is stable coins all continuing to grow, and that is
good for crypto in general. Last point I'll get to
is even avalanche. Now we get into countries that are
all leveraging in. This is Japan now with look at this,

(10:29):
six six point five trillion of their credit card processes
are now pushing into the avalanche ecosystem.

Speaker 2 (10:35):
So just deployed. All of this is good news, guys.

Speaker 1 (10:38):
So the point being we've got a lot in the works,
all of these things are in the air, is the problem.
And that's why I think you're seeing such uncertainty in
the market. If we start seeing some of these things land,
We're not going to get them all, so don't assume
that we will, but some of these will be key.
Starting with the government shutdown. I think that is the
one catalyst that will start a cast event, potentially starting

(11:02):
to correct a market. All right, If you guys are
not subscribed to the channel, do it now, get in.
And also on the Diamond Circle, we always leave a
link down below. It's absolutely free to join and follow
me out there on X at Paul Baron. We'll catch
you next time right here on the Paul Baron Show.
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