Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The floodgates are open, a new crypto bank has emerged.
We're going to see a lot of this start happening.
You don't want to miss it. Let's break it down.
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(00:21):
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thank me later. We're going to do a full episode
on this because it's big news coming down the pipe,
and self custody is the way. Let's go into a
couple of points I want to hit on. Of course,
everybody's been looking at the ETF to demand, especially around bitcoin.
A lot of this has been impacted due to what's
been going on with the government shutdown. Yes, we know
(00:44):
that market sentiment is down. All of this is starting
to kind of push into exactly what we're seeing right
here on the ETF inflows. If you kind of look
here on the weekly, especially on bitcoin, you can kind
of see, these are the problems that we've had over
the past almost month. That of course in line with
what's been going on with the government shutdown, and even
(01:05):
if you look at ethereum also last four weeks down
as well. So this may be an indicator as we
see the government reopen, which I anticipate looks like it's
going to be this week, become a new catalyst for
some of this activity on bitcoin and ethereum. After fifty
days at home, the House has officially been called back
(01:25):
to DC to reopen the government. The vote is now
scheduled for Wednesday at four pm. The House is the
final step and of course if this occurs, government has
been reopened, and this will happen I believe this week.
So back to my point there, I want to go
to the clip here because this clip will explain a
little bit more about what Mike Johnson was talking about.
Take a look.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
So a source on today's House GP conference call said
that you told members that you're hoping for a Wednesday
House vote to reopen the government. Well, you'll wait until
you have the votes. Before you have the vote.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
We need to get everybody back, everybody in both parties
and I've told them to start the travel earlier today,
so I expect and hope that we'll have everybody here.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
So the Senate bill is setting a date for Senate
vote on extending the Obamacare subsidies, which are set to
expire at the end of the year. You have not
committed to a separate House vote on the issue. Thirteen
of your most vulnerable members. As you know, I wrote
a letter to you saying that after the shutdown quote,
we should immediately turn us to the growing crisis and
that's going to expire at the end of the year.
(02:23):
Will you have a vote on the issue as you're
thirteen Republicans, frontline Republicans, people that are that you're the
speaker because of that, Will you have a vote so
they can vote.
Speaker 4 (02:33):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
I've been in contact with those members and all of
our members throughout the entire ordeal that we've been going through.
This is a very important point. We were always open
to sitting down to negotiate and talk through how to
reduce healthcare costs. It's a crisis for the American people.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
The cost of skyrocketed, all right, So this is all
looming around, as you guys know, the healthcare scenario. The
other pressure that is on the federal government right now,
of course, has been travel and this is going into
one of the biggest travel seasons of the year. Air
traffic controllers now will miss their second full paycheck that's
due on Tuesday, and this, of course is due to
the shutdown that we're seeing. And the other thing federal
(03:10):
law requires back pay wants to shut down ends. That's
something that a lot of people kind of forget because
this is happening with all government employees. They will be
getting back paid, So it's not as though this is
going to reduce anything. Is really just a matter of
impacting productivity. Other factors that are playing into this right
now that I think is a bigger, more concerning issue
(03:30):
is the job market pessimism. And this is the concern
I have right now going into especially the next FED meeting.
Seventy one percent of US consumers expect an increase in
unemployment over the next twelve months. That simply means that
this could meet the nineteen eighties peak, one that was
devastating to economies. We also saw highest inflation, highest interest rates.
(03:51):
All that happened in the eighties. This percentage has now
doubled in less than a year. So one of the
biggest concerns right now, of course, from all business is
out there is going to be just in general retail
throughput and if you look at the market as we
go into the holiday season and now eventually we'll see
Q four earnings, which could be a bad quarter for
(04:11):
a lot of retailers, a lot of restaurant industry out there,
so this will have a big impact. And of course
the next roll on top of that is cutting jobs,
so Q one next year look for some big ones.
Other things right now we're watching is the Clarity Act,
and of course Ron Hammond, who's been on our show
many times, it's very possible at one are both committees
vote their respective version of the bill by years in. However,
(04:35):
the next step will be combining the bills and navigating
the politics and various stakeholders. It's called all referencing the
issue around the Clarity Act, and if we do get
this in place by year end, that would be one
of the outliers that we're looking at as a catalyst
for the market in general. Now, granted, the SOFI news
is a big deal because of what's going to go on.
(04:56):
I think within the banks now. And the other thing
that yeah to kind of consider is just the signals
that we're seeing within the market. You know, this of
course was coinbased kind of playing on the mcgribs back
and then McDonald's. Actually they know what's up. I think
here if you know what that means. Typically this means
hard times, and you also look at the opportunity of
(05:20):
where we could see all coin season maybe re emerging
with all of this happening. The big news, of course
was nationally chartered bank SOFI now launches crypto trading for consumers.
So this simply means, guys, we are going to see
I believe a rush especially from the neo banks banks
like SOFI and others that will start to push very
hard to get this done. I want to go to
(05:41):
the clip by the SOFI CEO because he is kind
of laying it out what kind of impact this could have.
Speaker 5 (05:47):
Take a look nanics to see you sir in person.
Speaker 4 (05:49):
Goodness year as well.
Speaker 5 (05:50):
Okay, so what's going on here? This is a big deal. Yeah,
this morning we deal for you. It is a very
big deal. It's a big day and a big milestone.
So this morning we're launching as the only nonational bank,
the first and only national bank, the opportunity to buy, sell,
and hold cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solano. So I
was going to ask, if we just talking about three for.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
Now, we'll expand, well, beyond three, it'll be a pretty
broad assortment. We try to differentiate on being fast, having
broad selection, great prices, ease of you. So we'll try
to give members SOFI members as much selection as they
would like.
Speaker 5 (06:21):
And what's the difference between going through you and going
through coinbase, You're going through Robinhood or somebody else.
Speaker 4 (06:27):
Yeah, there's a couple of really big differences. First, we're
nationally charted bank, which means we have the infrastructure, the processes,
the financial conditions that provides the safeguards that a consumer
would expect from a bank, which is going to allow
us to scale responsibly. The second thing is, because we
are one stop shop, you can do all your banking,
checking and savings at SOFI. You're borrowing, and you're investing
(06:47):
and now crypto. And one of the unique things about
that is when you come to SOFI and fund your
crypto investments, you'll fund them in a SOFI checking and
saves account that checking sames accounts deposits earn interest, you're.
Speaker 5 (06:59):
Going to fund it with crypto.
Speaker 4 (07:01):
You're going to fund your checking You're going to fund
your checking account with cash. And then when you buy
right bitcoiner, Solano or Ethereum, the money will come straight
out of your checking stam's account. So when you're not
putting cash to work, it's not sitting in an account
that earns no interest, and it's not sitting account that's
not insured. So the money will sit in an FDIC
insured account. Up to two million dollars is what we.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
Offer, all right, So this is going to get pretty creative,
I think with banks in general. The note that I
think you should all draw to this is that they're
going to expand rapidly into a variety of other assets
out there, and I think the SOFI army is probably
going to start to drive which of those tokens are
going to get listed. But this, of course is a
(07:42):
good list of why SOFI matters. It's a well known
charter bank. You have banks of the highest institutions in
people's lives. Sixty percent of users don't want to pay
to sign up for a crypto Shanwing, so they'd rather
invest directly from the chicking. I would agree with that
to a certain extent. This puts a lot of pressure
on coinbase. More important, and until we see a banking
system coming into Robinhood, this will put a lot of
(08:04):
pressure on Robinhood. The key here will be how many
tokens get onto the platform and how quickly. If they
come in and get you know, twenty thirty tokens, they
are going to be equally competitive to something like a
Robinhood with the advantage of a bank being there. So
this is going to get interesting pretty quickly. Let's go
to another thing. I just kind of compare here the
(08:26):
top ten US banks by assets. You have to remember
so far right now is holding it around thirty six
billion in assets. This was as of twenty twenty four.
There's the top ten right there, from JP Morgan holding
around three point six trillion all the way down to
State Street at three hundred and sixty eight billion. So
the point is is there's a lot of upside here
for neobanks. There's a lot of upside here for traditional
(08:47):
banks if they are willing to take that final step
and get more creative in their products and services. I
don't know that the insertive will happen. We'll see. I
think the neobanks and the new banks that come on
to the crypto scene will be the ones that win. One,
of course, is the of course Ripple Bank that we're
looking at right now. The OCC banking license application now
(09:08):
available public review. Remember that all of this ended at
the end of October. Mean people thought we would see
an immediate approval and instead I think what we're going
to see is an extension of what Ripple is going
to try to do strategically. Now this may put Ripple's
hand into actually going a little bit further because the
(09:28):
initial review period is one hundred and twenty days from
the application, So that was the October thirty first decision.
But between November and early twenty twenty six is what
we think could be the scenario where we could see
an actual Ripple bank take place. And this would be
good for them because it would of course give more
XRP news out there and of course expose it maybe
(09:49):
at the right time where a lot of other banks
are starting to move in this direction so far, First
Mover latest XRPETF products now appear on the DTCC website.
This was just now you can kind of see it.
It's all happening. This is kind of the last step
guys before we start to see an actual launch, and
this is going to happen. I think we're going to
see it as early as this week, So be on
the lookout for that. Could be some pretty huge things
(10:13):
going on for Ripple and XRP in general. The other
thing you got to look at is that, and I
would agree Robinhood's statement here is crypto is now becoming
the infrastructure for the global financial system as we see
more neobanks starting to take because we've seen other banks
internationally do what Sofar is doing. Now that we see
(10:33):
the neobank here in the United States, I think it's
just a matter of time before we start seeing at
a lot more newer bank getting involved in this. One
thing that everybody's asking right now is where are we
on with all this good news government reopening possibly Clarity Act.
Now you've got a bank that's doing crypto, all is
(10:53):
great news. Where are we on this bull run? And
of course the leader of the bull run I would
still put in the top spot as Tom Lee. The
dynamics are favorable for stocks into year in so we
would be buying the dip. And his theory is a
little bit interesting because what he looks at is the
performance of regular fund managers. They're way behind in comparison
(11:16):
to retail who's out in front, and now you actually
have fund managers trying to play catch up. So they're
actually trying to get to year in so they can
keep their clients and show that they can actually perform.
That's his whole thesis around this. I want to go
to a clip from his interview that kind of breaks
this down.
Speaker 6 (11:35):
Take a look, because I've been in markets, as you know,
for thirty five years. Yeah, I've in the nineties, retail
was always right. So the reason is I think retail
remember now, I mean I'm generalizing because there's a lot
in retail. There's like your day traders, and there's Robin Hood,
(11:56):
and then there's Schwab and then there's high network. But
the reality is that person who's buying stocks because they
have a long term view of stocks is going to
get this market right.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
Fucked.
Speaker 6 (12:09):
There are more of those people in retail than in
institutions because the institutional investor has a monthly bogie they
got to beat and they're under pressure to beat their peers,
so sometimes they forget that in Nvidia is just a
long term buy. They're trying to time the market. So
(12:32):
I would say anyone who operates with a long term
view is the smart money. And that's been mostly more
of those folks are in retail.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
And I think a lot of people are you guys
out there right now. You know how to do one
thing in this market, and that is total. Look at
the long term vision of where these projects are going. Also,
look at the shift that we've seen both on a
regulatory front, what we've seen on a sentiment front, and
now I think think an infrastructure front, which is really
(13:02):
going to be the one that changes everything. Speaking of that,
you got to look at this infrastructure change because this
is a big one right here with UNISWAP. Here was
Heyen Adams talking about this. I'm credit excited to offer
the first proposal to UNISWAP governance on behalf of UNISWAP. Mainly,
what they're going to be doing is that they are
going to turn on protocol fees and align the incentives
(13:22):
across the SWAP ecosystem. This is a big deal because
it's going to put in a unbelievable. Out of fees
that are going to go into burning UNISWAP, ten percent
of UNISWAP is going to get burned based on the
past fees that have been done. So this is something
we've called for and talked about here on this show
for quite some time. UNISWAP is now there could become
(13:44):
an institutional mainstay because of what we're seeing now. Solana
ETFs also are out performing expectations with a ten day
inflow run. Another big one, of course, Solana we knew
would be good be Sole. Of course, with Matt Hogan
his team at bitwise has been able to kind of
lead the charge on this. The real question will be
how does this perform against other ETFs that are big
(14:08):
mainstay ETFs like XRP that will be hitting very soon.
Is the question. Here's Nick Garassi. Just two years ago
we had the sec Chair Gensler indicating that the proof
of stake tokens were securities, and now we have the
Treasury of the Secretary of providing tax clarity on staking
in ETFs of those very same tokens. So, man, we
(14:29):
have come a long way. It's a bizarre world. It's
almost like are we in it. Sometimes I wonder we
are in a simulation. It's got to be. It's got
to be a simulation. Last up, of course, was this
right here. And I just want you to pay attention
to the people that were at this Cantor Fitzgerald meeting.
It's very interesting, bedfellows. This tells me that the architectures
(14:51):
are being built right now, both in DC Wall Street,
and it's all coming around one centralized, decentralized model, and
that is Crypto. You guys stick around for all of that.
We're gonna be covering this in so much more this week,
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(15:13):
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