Wall of Worry📉Crypto Uncertainty Market Update🔥

The crypto market crashed today, Nov. 3, as a risk-off sentiment continued and as uncertainty climbs in the United States.

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00:00 intro
00:05 Tom Lee: Wall of Worry over?
01:03 Tom Lee buys ETH
01:45 Michael Saylor buys Bitcoin
02:04 Buying Amounts Slowing
02:27 November S&P500
02:52 Ethereum $7,000 by December
04:31 Tom Lee Mindshare Power
05:06 Bull-Market Catalysts
05:26 Altcoin Season Dead
06:06 Fear & Greed Index
07:49 Government Shutdown
08:18 Trump Healthcare Plan?
09:44 SNAP benefits resumes?
10:04 No Fed Rate Cut
11:00 Cash on Sidelines
11:40 Sponsor: iTrust Capital
12:24 Berkshire Selling Over?
13:14 Fed Pumping Money Into Banking System
13:53 Supreme Court vs Tariffs
14:16 Balancer Hack Contagion?
14:54 Ripple Prime Launches
15:40 Animoca Brands IPO
16:00 US vs China Bitcoin Holdings
16:47 Trump Crypto Priority
17:43 US Ethereum Holdings
18:25 CLARITY Act on Thanksgiving?
19:00 Market Crashing
20:24 outro

#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum
~Wall of Worry📉Crypto Uncertainty Market Update🔥~
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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Today we'll be breaking into the wall of worry. As
Tom Lee says, you guys don't want to miss it.
Let's get right into it. I want to open up
with the clip where Tom Lee is going into his
anticipation toward the year end. Take a look.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
I guess sentiment is not positive as that you mentioned
the wall of worry. Average sentiment this year is still
minus eleven point five like net soadly bearish. That's only
happened three other times in thirty five years, all in
the middle of bear market. So investors feel like it's
a bear market. But we're up seventeen percent, which kind
of tells me. I think there's a big performance chase

(00:33):
into your end. You know, over eighty percent of fund
managers are missing their benchmark this year. Wow, because we've
got the shutdown, we've got China, we got the Fed speak.
But the market's been up six months in a row now,
only six times since nineteen twenty eight that's happened. If
you look at November, we're up five or six times,
and in nineteen forty two it was flat. So basically

(00:54):
November should be really strong. I think at least two
hundred points in the SMP for November. Yeah, maybe even
two hundred and fifty, so maybe we get to seventy one.
See that's a call that I just wish you wouldn't
make a call like that, right.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
Yeha love Tom's he's absolutely a perma bear. But he
does make some interesting points here. Fund managers down eight
percent of fund of managers down right now, so they're
going to have to perform. He also hits on the
fact that he's acquiring more ethereum, so he is doubling
down as he continues to boost his eighth holdings over
on Bittmind, what does he know what I mean? Because

(01:28):
he's looking at the narrative. I get the narrative in
the sense that investors feel like it's a bear market,
but yet at the same time where at all time
highs on the S and P and bitcoin is holding
right now at least as we speak, around one oh seven.
Whether or not it can hold that one hundred k
is the big question. Other things, of course that we're breaking,

(01:48):
of course, is micro Strategy came in and purchased another
three undred ninety seven bitcoin. This is between the twenty
seventh and over Vember second yesterday, So an average about
one hundred and fourteen K a little bit high for
that forty five million, and also not a big buy
for MicroStrategy, so they seem to be timing their purchasing
down as well as Tom Lee timing his purchasing down.

(02:11):
If you look at the amount of eight as it
starts to come down, now, is he waiting for a
big market correction on ethereum? Could we see this push
into around twenty six twenty seven hundred, and then that
would be when Bittman is looking for this bounce coming
into an all time high four ethereum. Additionally, the Nasdaq
one hundred and also the Russell two thousand have seen

(02:32):
an average right now of gains of around two and
a half and two point six. This is during this period,
so if you look at November, it does show through
that this could happen, and could the S and P
five hundred C seven thousand this month If you look
at history, this does flow into his thesis around how
the market should perform. I want to go to one
more clip by him because this is where he gets

(02:53):
into his prediction on ethereum by year end. Take a look.

Speaker 2 (02:57):
I want you to quit while you're ahead, but I
have to ask you about I.

Speaker 1 (03:00):
Mean, you want to go out on a limb there
go below one hundred or no.

Speaker 2 (03:04):
I mean if I look at everything since October tenth,
because that was the biggest liquidation in the history of crypto,
like bigger than ft margin, almost a miniature rupture like tsunami.
We're only a couple of weeks from that, so I
think the market is consolidating. But if I look at fundamentals,
like let's lay ethereum, stable coin volumes have been exploding,
application revenues at all time high, so right now fundamentals

(03:28):
are leading price in crypto. So I think eventually we
consolidate and then we rally into your end there fifty Yeah,
I think we could still get to one fifty two
hundred for bitcoin and then something like seven thousand for eparing.

Speaker 1 (03:40):
Definitely still very bullish four year in. I just want
you guys to think about this. We are less than
sixty days, and you remember you have two major holidays
during that sixty days to be able to attack the markets. Granted, yes,
crypto moves twenty four to seven, doesn't sleep, I get it.
I don't know that we hit a seven k if
we do if we hit a seven K, Tom Lee

(04:01):
will be one of the greatest investors that has ever
performed on Wall Street because if you look at poly
market right now, that chance of an all time high,
just an all time high by December thirty first, which
I am somewhat bullish on, of going to an all
time high on ethereum bitcoin, maybe it gets back to
its one twenty six. According to some of the cycle
analysts that are out there, we are way past the

(04:23):
high on where the market could be going. So could
be a big, big, interesting fall as we start to
go toward holiday season. Let's not forget though, that Tom
Lee right now is the leader of the pack when
it comes to analysts, and this is comparing Michael Saylor,
Kathy Wood, and he's greater in the sense of searches

(04:45):
than all of them put together. So the reality is
people are listening to Tom Lee right now. And if
you get people listening, including fund managers and a lot
of the markets, including fomo markets, yes, you could lead
that through just by absolutely doing exactly what Tom Lee
is doing, and that is forcing it, willing it into
reality going forward. Now, we put out this video right

(05:09):
here last Friday and it's the bull market catalyst. Don't
miss these catalysts. There was a line of about a
dozen catalysts that needed to happen for possibly a market correction.
Go back and watch the video, but there are some
of them that are starting to click through and actually
maybe showing up. One of them though that's not is
the fact that we have gone into potentially a bigcoin season. Again,

(05:32):
that's how low sentiment is right now. When you look
at the current all coin season index holding it a
twenty seven, so we are out of all coin season
and according to some analysts, all coin season may not
even happen. That's the kind of scenario that this plays into. Now,
does it push into twenty twenty six? Like what Paul

(05:52):
from Data Dash is kind of thinking an elongated cycle.
These cycles are very interesting at this point because they
do go back all the way into the nineteen forties,
and that's what many of these scientists have been looking at.
If you look at these cycles, crypto fear and greed
another cycle, this of course starting to show up. And
remember look at these big yellow zones and then these

(06:16):
massive red markets. This is March of twenty twenty five
right there. Here's our pump into May. Here's a nice
little move in July, and then of course here we've
had this kind of so are we due for a
major green candle as we start to bust in to
the fall? You can kind of see it right here.
This is really the last time we started to see

(06:38):
a little bit of consistency back in October around one thirteen,
one fourteen. So let me know in the comments if
you think bitcoin is going to hit its all time
high in twenty twenty five or do you think this
roll is over? And if it does, we've just shattered
the four year cycle. If we get another high outside
of the fourth quarter. Other things that play into this

(06:59):
is around where we're going to see moves on the market,
and typically in the past we've seen the China ban,
we saw a five x increase right here around COVID,
all of these dips in the market, these are the
kind of opportunities that these represent. Now are we at
that state right now? I don't think we're in the dip,

(07:20):
but we definitely are on a downtrend in the market.
Does it mean it is the end of the bull cycle?
Is the real question that everybody is asking, because a
lot of people have been holding bags for a long
time and they don't want to get caught in a
twenty twenty one. That's the one thing that I'm a
little bit concerned with is a twenty twenty one repeat

(07:40):
where a lot of people miss that top and assume
we're going to see a one hundred k bitcoin at
that time, and this time it would be an all
time high bitcoin at we're on one twenty six one.
Other catalyst that we hit on right here was the
government shutdown. This I think would be a major catalyst.
It does not look good right now, so there's no
real open site at least. We kind of had a

(08:02):
little bit of hope from Tom Emmer last week where
he thought Tuesday would be the day. It's just not
going to happen, guys, and I think this is going
to be a pending issue all the way into the holiday.
If this goes back into lead late into December, that
is a major problem because most of these guys won't
even be there for these votes. I want to go
to another clip because this was Trump on sixty minutes

(08:23):
talking about fixing healthcare. Take a look.

Speaker 3 (08:25):
Three quarters of these people will see their healthcare premiums
double even here in Florida has the highest number of
residents on Obamacare in the country.

Speaker 4 (08:34):
And I'm saying we can fix it. If they're going
to get a very big increase this year, well.

Speaker 3 (08:39):
They're going to get an inscrease if they don't, if
you don't extend the subsidies.

Speaker 4 (08:43):
No, No, What I'm saying is we can make it
much less expensive for people and give them much better healthcare.
Where is that work with the Democrats? We can make
it good.

Speaker 3 (08:54):
I don't want to get into back.

Speaker 4 (08:55):
Here's all I have to do. Open up the country,
Open up the country. It sounds like this is going
to causey but the people don't want that.

Speaker 2 (09:04):
I hear it.

Speaker 4 (09:05):
So we are a record setting country right now.

Speaker 3 (09:07):
It sounds like this is not going to get solved.

Speaker 4 (09:09):
It's going to get sofia. Oh, it's going to get sold.
How we'll get it shot?

Speaker 1 (09:12):
All right? So Trump is talking about and you know,
Mike Johnson mentioned this last week. We have played a
clip on this, and that is that the Republicans apparently
have a plan in lock ready to go into into
position for health care. If that is the case, and
if Trump has kind of doubled down on this. They
need to turn around on this, but again it all
depends on the Democrats to get the country back open.

(09:34):
If they come to the table and we do get
it happening, then it will all be on eyes on
Republicans to get this healthcare in a position where it
does do exactly what Trump just said, and that is
reducing costs. That would be another major catalyst. Trump's administration
has to continue the food aid during the shutdown. This
of course is coming from the US judges. So the
likelihood kind of limping along for snap benefits not getting

(09:59):
acts during these periods of time, So I think that
is at least somewhat of a positive nature. We also
mentioned that other things. If you look at a FED
decision in December, this is the other thing that has
been an issue that we've talked about before after the
FOMC meeting where Chairpal was a bit hawkish, And of
course now we're still holding at about a sixty seven percent.

(10:20):
Let me going to zoom in on that for you.
About a sixty seven percent on a quarter basis points
in December, but rising right now is the no change
and it's holding that position at around thirty one percent,
So that will be a factor going forward. Now, there's
many people out there that don't like the idea of
a rate cut after two consecutive rate cuts, so a

(10:41):
pause might be in order to try to extend this
bull run. Many people think that the S ANDP is
still tied to that a rate cut simply means the
market might be in trouble. Do they see something coming?
Our job numbers coming even worse in terms of a factor,
because remember the FED is without data right now, I'm
trying to make these decisions. Kobec came into this and

(11:04):
talking about what we're seeing in money market funds. Investors
have poured four and a half trillion into cash funds.
You can kind of see this flowing right there.

Speaker 3 (11:13):
This is the.

Speaker 1 (11:14):
Escalation that I think Tom Lee is talking about, is
that people are setting on the sidelines, but yet at
the same time we're seeing institutions push the S and
P to all time high. So if we get any
kind of window here and continued rate cuts, then the
likelihood of that cash coming off the sidelines into risk
and also into traditional assets is huge going forward. Other

(11:37):
ways that you might be able to make a little
bit in terms of how you're playing this market. IRS
Capital announced that they were doing their Coinbase program, which
is introducing coinbased US Bitcoin Yield fund and this is
in an IRA, So pretty big deal for expanding yields
on coinbase, or excuse me, pretty big deal on expanding

(11:58):
yields on bitcoin. It's kind of the kind of a
game change because this is a first of its kind
integration expanding to institutional grade crypto for retirement investors. So
again this goes inside a retirement agount. If you haven't
started a retirement account yet and using something like an
I trust, make sure and use the link down below.
It will get you into I Trust Capital. We always

(12:20):
leave that there so you guys can also get a
funding reward, so check it out. Now. Other things that
are happening in the market is Buffet. Buffett has been
doing this for a while. This is the twelfth consecutive
quarter that he has been selling. Now he has been
selling into a rising S and P number, So there
many analysts would say he's left a lot of money

(12:42):
on the table. But if you don't look at the
S and P five hundred in the lens of the
mag seven, many of these stocks are down, especially the
look of the Russell two thousand. But if you look
at the max seven then he yeh, he's left a
lot of money on the table, but he's moving into
his twelfth consecutive quarter. Could we be at a position
now where Berkshire Hathway finally isn't a position to where

(13:03):
they're gonna buy and that means possibly the end of
this market or at least a possible dump into the
market where opens up and opening for Berkshire Hathaway. Other
things you got to look at right here, as the
Federal Reserve just pumped almost thirty billion into US banking
system and this came through the overnight repos. This amount

(13:24):
so far surpasses even the peak of the dot com bubble.
So what is happening in the banks that would require
thirty billion into the system on the repos? This is
concerning because does it mean that we could see a
liquidity event coming at the banks that maybe is looming
and that could happen also with a possible retracement of

(13:46):
the S and P five hundred. So all of these
things factoring into where I think we've seen the sideways
action on the market, especially in risk assets. Other things
that are being decided right now as you have Trump's
legal woes and this of course coming into the Supreme
Court trying to decide if his presidential powers over trade
are going to continue. And this happens on Wednesday, So

(14:09):
this would be another factor, another catalyst. If we actually
get an award either way, it might end up working
both to our benefits. Here's another thing that is a
little alarming, could be a bear market indicator. This of
course is talking about stolen fronts funds from the balancer exploit.
Now if search one hundred and sixteen million, one thing

(14:30):
that could be brewing is a small contagion. As we
start to see chains being halted, you also see a
DPEG right here of stream DeFi. This is another stable
coin out there xusd. Those are in some cases that
probably would make any kind of issue in terms of
the market, but right now just not a good sign

(14:52):
going forward. Right now as we look to where we're
going now, good signs that we could see is the
fact that Ripple has made a move and they launched
a digital asset spot Prime brokerage for the US. They're
going head to head now. I think in the case
of coinbase, maybe open up some liquidity and also some
potential asset opportunities for Ripple Prime as we start to

(15:13):
see a lot of announcements coming out a swell which
opens up tomorrow on November fourth in New York. They'll
be doing two days, which is the fourth and the fifth,
and it is a who's who of the banking industry,
including Blackrock, Franklin, Templeton, City Bank, you name it, and
including the White House, which hasn't been there since twenty eighteen.
So there's a lot of good news potentially coming out

(15:36):
of New York with Ripple, so XRP might see a
little bit of a boom coming in this. Of course,
was Anamocha which their reverse merger with this fintech company
called Currency Group. This ended up getting paused because of
the volatility on tradeline. So that is an indicator again
where we're starting to see very unique things happening with

(15:56):
some of the key players in the space, and Anamocha
being one of them. The world's biggest economies are going
head to head in terms of bitcoin arms race, and
that is the United States and China right now holding
the most in the way of bitcoin. And I think
this goes into a point that we've made here on
this show is there seems to be building a bipolar

(16:18):
global reserve currency strategy. One is going the route of
stable coins and bitcoin, which is the United States. One
going the route of bitcoin and gold, which is China.
So which one is going to win the key here?

Speaker 2 (16:32):
Will be?

Speaker 1 (16:33):
Right? Now you look at the United States, which has
access to so many countries now being able to export
the dollar via a stable coin, they might be at
the right place at the right time if Trump can
get things off high center in New York. I want
to go to one more clip here because this puts
Trump's position, which is all about crypto and how important

(16:55):
it is even compared to AI.

Speaker 4 (16:56):
Take a look, I only care about one thing. Will
crypto be? Will we be number one in crypto? Crypto
has turned out and in that sense, I've been right.
Crypto has turned out to be a massive industry. And
I'm very proud to say that we are far and
away ahead of China and everybody else. Now. China is
getting into it very big right now, tremendous number of jobs.

(17:18):
I campaigned positively on crypto, very openly. I campaigned Biden
went all in on crypto at the very end because
you thought he could get some votes. It didn't work.
They voted for me. Because in crypto, it's a kind
of an industry where basically you're going to have number
one and you're not going to have a number two.
And right now we're number one by a long shot.
I want to keep it that way. The same way

(17:39):
we're number one with AI, we're number one with crypto,
and I want to keep it that way.

Speaker 1 (17:44):
Now, if you look at the United States had to
head with bitcoin, but when it comes to ethereum, not
necessarily the case. United States right now is considered the
largest hold of eth by investors overall, with around thirty
percent of global ethereum held by US investors. This is
major because it means companies and government is holding ethereum.
And even if you look at Trump's World Liberty FI wallets,

(18:07):
what they're holding, it's not even close. Six billion in
ethereum ecosystem all under World Liberty five. So Trump understands
this is one of the key technologies, especially in crypto,
that is going to make a game changing opportunity. And
he understands also the tokenization side of this and where
it could be going now Crypto chatter is speeding up

(18:28):
in Congress, especially leading into possibly getting this bill across
the line. And if we get the Clarity Act across
before Thanksgiving, this will be another catalyst that I think
will be signifying a potential run into the end of
the year. Now, granted, Boozman says they're teasing it, so
it's a possibility that we get a committee vote on

(18:51):
their portion. So it doesn't mean the bill would pass
possibly by Thanksgiving, but it could give us an indicator
and possibly a short term pump. You you know how
those things work. One other point I want to hit
out right here is Solana is now below. It's ten
ten wick. This was when we saw the liquidity event.
This is the lowest it's been in quite some time.
Let me know how you guys are playing Salona. I
know there's a lot of Solana watchers out there in

(19:13):
the audience, so drop some comments down below, And by
the way, if you're not subscribed to the show, make
sure and do that. We always love to get you
guys in. And of course one of the things that
we do is our live streams around the FMCS and others,
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It does get you a notification when we do that
checking out on where the market is right now. There,

(19:35):
of course is bitcoin trading at one six 't nine
as we're recording on this still on a red day
and pushing hard back into possibly that one hundred thousand zone,
which is what we've been looking at, not holding up
sentiment wise when you look at the metrics overall, Bitcoin
is getting a little bit soft right here in terms
of sentiment. And if we take a look at let's

(19:58):
go over and take a look at Solana real quick,
because I want to show this one right here. This
might be the point where Solana does get a reversal
a one sixty seven, But if not, then we've got
a potential push all the way down to around one
twenty seven, which is the mark that could be happening again.
This all plays into the top tier assets in crypto,

(20:18):
which is Bitcoin, obviously, Ethereum, Solana and XRP. Those are
the ones we're watching very closely. You guys, make sure
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