May 20, 2025 • 12 mins
Retiring in uncertain economic times can be daunting, but a well-structured plan can help you navigate these challenges. Jon Hicks goes through the impacts of recession fears on retirement plans. Discover how a well-thought-out strategy can help you navigate market uncertainties and ensure a sustainable income during retirement. Learn about the five key pillars of a successful retirement plan and how to implement them to protect your financial future. Schedule your complimentary appointment today: RetirementSolutionShow.com Follow us on social media: YouTube | Facebook | LinkedInSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is the Retirement Solution podcast with financial advisor John Hicks,
founder of Jayhagen Capital.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Their word recession, it's coming up more and more often,
boom boom, even though many economists, including yourself, have said
for years we actually need a recession because we need
it's what will help get prizes on things down. It's
a it's a double edged sword, this recession conversation. But
what you and I both know for sure, John, is
(00:27):
that a recession should not affect the well being of
somebody in their retirement. That is where you, sir, come
into play, helping us figure out a plan to make
it as such. Between the conversation of Trump's tariffs and
the market volatility, it feels like every single day is
a different headline that contradicts the one we got maybe
(00:47):
an hour before. And Fox Business actually asked JP Morgan's
Jamie Diamond if he's expecting a recession as a result,
and here's what he said.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
But I think crowd that's a likely outcome. Film markets
aren't always right, but sometimes they are right. I think
this time they are right because they're just pricing uncertainty
of the macro level and uncertainty of the micro level,
the actual company level, and then how it affects consumer sentiment.
It's hard to tell. You know, consumers still have jobs,
Wages are going up to the low end, which I
think is a good thing. But if companies start cutting back, yeah,
(01:19):
the consumer sentiment changes and business sentiment changes. You know,
no one's wishing for that. But hopefully if there is one,
they'll be short.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Hopefully it will be short. It won't last long.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Yeah, But when somebody comes to you, particularly folks that
you work with that are close to your in retirement,
and they're worried about recession, what do you say to them.
Speaker 4 (01:35):
I mean, the one thing that a lot of folks
do is they worry because of speculation. That's why we
see the headlines change so much. Everything is just speculative.
No one really knows what's going to happen, and that's
usually when markets behave the worst is when no one
really can put a finger on what they think the
next phase is going to be. Right. So, Jamie Dimond,
in the beginning before the election, was kind of an
(01:57):
ardent Trump supporter. He's always been a pretty good he's
always done pretty well staying neutral. But I think he
thought that the President was going to have a lot
of really pro business initiatives, right, and as the tariffs
have gone on, he's become a little bit more vocal, saying, eh,
you know, let's just be understanding of this. So that
doesn't mean that they won't have a good outcome these tariffs.
But come on, mister president, let's help us out here.
(02:19):
None of us know should we be hiring people, should
we be firing people, should we be relocating people? Should
we bring in some of these call centers from other
countries because we can't really afford to do some of
those things. These are all issues, right, And Jamie Dimond
one of the things he just said, he mentioned that
all the interconnectivity of things, right, So the individual investor
is thinking one thing, so they're making decisions yep. Businesses
(02:41):
are looking at wow, is the individual investor or the consumer?
Are they going to be buying our stuff? Do we
need to stock the shelves or should we hey, should
we just hold on to some cash? What should we
do right now? And then that consistent cycle of not
knowing creates all the speculation and the markets don't like it.
You know, when you look at the volatility indexes, which
is the measurement of how scared we are as a people.
(03:04):
It's doubled. It's literally doubled in the last two months.
It's gone from roughly a twelve to around a twenty five,
so more than doubled. When you look at volatility, that
means that people are twice as concerned as they were
a couple of years ago. I'm sorry, a couple months ago,
just a couple months ago. So that's a big deal,
and it's causing the market to get a little bit
(03:25):
of indigestion because it doesn't know what's happening right. So
the thing that we all have to understand is how
do we unpack this information. Well, if we have a
two to three year plan to retire, heck even three
to five years, or we're already retired, most of the
things that are happening right now should not affect your
plan if it was done right.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
Seriously, shouldn't an important summarizing statement if it was done right.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
And being done right means you're not just focusing on
what chunk of money do you have that really is
not it? And in your diversified asset classes, everyone's as
they have that. Yeah, but it's when you know, when
the tide goes out, everyone can see who's been swimming naked?
Speaker 5 (04:06):
Right?
Speaker 4 (04:07):
So, wh when I'm talking about a real plan for
retirement has to have five steps, five pillars. You have
to have Number one, you have to understand how much
protection do you have? What assets do you have that
can't go down? What protections are in place doesn't mean
it's a product mix. It just means how much how
much safety nets are in there? You have a stop loss?
Do you have derivatives? Do you have options that make
(04:28):
money if things go down? Do you have income coming
in from areas that you don't have to worry about?
You know, because no matter what happens with the market,
protection is number one, and that leads to income. So
if you know how much protection you have, the more
protection you have on your money, the more income you
can typically take. Think about it, guys, that's not rocket
science at all. Think about it. If you get a
million bucks and it's all at risk, it could potentially
(04:50):
all go up and down because you owned the big
magnificent seven. You owned Microsoft and Apple and Nvidia and
Amazon and Google, and all of a sudden they're down
twenty five or thirty percent can you take the same
amount of income from that portfolio that's down twenty five percent.
Most gurus would say, well, you shouldn't. If you do,
you could potentially run out of money. So be very careful.
(05:11):
But if you know, hey, you got some of those
things in your portfolio, but not all of it. You
got a lot of stuff it's safe, a lot of
stuff that you know you're tied to treasury rates, or
you're getting really good bank rates on your CDs, or
you have an annuity that's a guaranteed income stream, or
you have a pension and you have airbnbs and things
like that. If you have your income and you know
your protection, guys, those are the two biggest pieces of
(05:33):
a retirement portfolio. When you throw in the third one,
which is tax design, how do you keep more of
that money that you can spend and not let the
government spend it, but it's your money, and you use
true real mitigation techniques to keep more of your money
and to keep illegally away from the government. That's number three.
Those are the big three, right, So if you just
do those big three things, you're going to be in
(05:55):
a much better position because over the course of retirement,
we will probably experire. It's all of us somewhere between
three to six different recessions over the course of about
twenty to thirty years that we're going to spend in retirement.
And if you retire earlier, guess what, there's another opportunity
if you have another recession along the way. So a
quality plan based on protection, income tax design, wealth transfer,
(06:17):
and understanding where healthcare costs are going to be made
up those all five things. If you do that correctly,
it won't matter if you retire today, six months from
now or two years from now, because the markets are
always going to go up and the markets are always
going to go down, and hopefully you just don't happen
to retire at the absolute worst possible time. But even
if you did, you should still know that your income
(06:37):
is sustainable, if not forever, at least for a very
comfortable period like fifteen to twenty years, right. And if
we do that, guys, we can live to fight another day,
which is the whole point. So all the recession fears
typically means that someone does not have a well thought
out plan or they just don't know it. It's possible
they do have one, but they they're not aware of it.
Their guy hasn't told them that, or their gal hasn't
(06:58):
done it, or in all of their math and pulling
out their abacus and their Excel files, they didn't realize, Wow,
I kind of did all this right, I just wasn't
aware of what I was doing at the time.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Retirement Solutionsshow dot Com is where to start the conversation
if you are wondering about your plan, if you're wondering
about these five areas that John has pointed out, we
are here to help you go through all these areas
within your plan, within your receivings and investments, to ensure
that you are properly allocated for these different things that
you need to have covered for your retirement. We also
(07:28):
have links posted in the show notes, so you can
just click there. All of that said, John, does the
same ideology apply then to somebody who's now maybe thinking, well,
should I just delay my retirement with all this recession talk?
Maybe now is not a good time for me to
leave the job. Maybe I should You know, work to
save you do talk about if there is a loss
of funds in our investments in the first few years
of retirement, were what's six times more likely to run
(07:49):
out of money. So maybe people are thinking along those lines.
It's like, now it's just not a good time. Let
me just wait it out a few more years. What
do you say to those people?
Speaker 4 (07:55):
So there was a lot of statistics behind that, right,
So fidelity to the study and if you lose mine,
I mean in the first couple of years of retirement,
fifteen percent or more, you're six times more likely to
run out of money over the course of retirement. I
mean that's been established and published. So those are a
statistical fact. Now. The question, though, is that have you
saved well enough depending on how you're going to live
or you could retire no matter what, does it make
(08:15):
any difference? So you may start off not doing that
Mediterranean cruise. That very first year that your portfolio is
down eight or nine percent, you may want to just
defer that for another year. Does it mean that you
work a little bit longer? It depends on the quality
of life. Right. My whole thing is it's never the
wrong time to make a great decision. If it's time
for you to step out, or you're looking at taking
(08:37):
a buyout option or get right sized or downsized, whatever
they call it. These days. If that is happening, that
should not necessarily change because because we may be in
a recessionistic position at least most of the statistics I see. Again,
if you know where you're protected and where your income's
coming from, you can live to fight another day. It won't.
You'll be perfectly fine. So when someone says, well, John,
(08:59):
I would just feel lot better if I didn't retire
this June. Maybe I'll push it out a year. See
what happens. That is literally that is a total choice
based on what gives you comfort. And I do believe
that people should make choices that they can stand behind
because they give them comfort. But mathematically you may not
have to do that. You just may shift a little
bit when you spend the money. One of the things
(09:19):
that I always talk to people about is how they
can front load the retirement, which means one of two things.
How can you either retire a little bit earlier but
still at the same standard that you want to live at,
or how can you do all those bucket listed items
earlier in retirement? Why because you're younger and healthier probably
than the rest of the rest of your time that
(09:41):
you're going to be retired. You're the youngest and the healthiest.
Usually when you first retire, I want people to front
load that retirement. I want them to start thinking about
the Mediterranean cruise or that Viking River crews, or taking
the kids down to Space Camp or Disney or whatever
it is. Maybe looking at that lake house, maybe you
don't buy it, rent it for a month during the
(10:01):
summer for a few years, just to decide even if
you like it that much. But those are things that
I want people to do when they're younger and healthier
and able to enjoy it. So those are things that
we still want to plan for. Maybe some of those
things the things we kick. But should someone change completely
their idea of retirement just because of something going on
the markets that we can't control, usually, in my opinion, no,
(10:23):
got it.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
But always to your point making decisions for yourself or
your family that you can stand behind, that you are
confident and comfortable with. Absolutely, this is the goal of
every plan that they build at Jayhigen Capital and that
are ready to discuss with you as well. Retirement Solutions
Show dot Com is our website. If you have questions
about all this looming recession talk. Nobody's got a crystal ball.
(10:45):
So we don't know what will happen, but what John
and his team can help you understand is where you
are right now. Do you have a plan that implements
the five pillars he was discussing. Can you retire now
you don't have to delay, or should you work another
year or two? Let's get to we're crunching these numbers
for you and your plan and your goals. This is
everything that goes into the planning process a Jay Haagen
(11:06):
Capital that we can do with and for you as well. Again,
it's Retirement Solutions Show dot Com. Or just click on
the links we've got posted in the show notes. Let's
help you get to work.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
Thanks for listening to The Retirement Solution Podcast with John Hicks.
Begin the conversation about your savings plan with John and
the team at Jayhagen Capital by visiting Retirement Solution Radio
dot com. Be sure to listen to John's radio show,
The Retirement Solution Saturdays at eight am and Sundays at
nine am on NewsRadio eight forty Whas.
Speaker 5 (11:35):
Jhagen Capital Incorporated is not licensed in all fifty states.
To find out if Jayhigan Capital Incorporated is licensed in
your state, Please call five zero two sixty nine oh
fifty six thirty five. I JA Higgan Capital, Incorporated is
not affiliated with, nor endorsed by, the Social Security Administration
or any other government agency, and does not provide legal
or tax advice. By contacting us, you may be provided
with information about insurance and annuity products offered through Jjigincapital
(11:56):
LLCNPN number one eight eight two seven zero nine four
This is the Retirement Solution podcast with financial advisor John Hicks,
founder of Jayhagen Capital.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Their word recession, it's coming up more and more often,
boom boom, even though many economists, including yourself, have said
for years we actually need a recession because we need
it's what will help get prizes on things down. It's
a it's a double edged sword, this recession conversation. But
what you and I both know for sure, John, is
(00:27):
that a recession should not affect the well being of
somebody in their retirement. That is where you, sir, come
into play, helping us figure out a plan to make
it as such. Between the conversation of Trump's tariffs and
the market volatility, it feels like every single day is
a different headline that contradicts the one we got maybe
(00:47):
an hour before. And Fox Business actually asked JP Morgan's
Jamie Diamond if he's expecting a recession as a result,
and here's what he said.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
But I think crowd that's a likely outcome. Film markets
aren't always right, but sometimes they are right. I think
this time they are right because they're just pricing uncertainty
of the macro level and uncertainty of the micro level,
the actual company level, and then how it affects consumer sentiment.
It's hard to tell. You know, consumers still have jobs,
Wages are going up to the low end, which I
think is a good thing. But if companies start cutting back, yeah,
(01:19):
the consumer sentiment changes and business sentiment changes. You know,
no one's wishing for that. But hopefully if there is one,
they'll be short.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Hopefully it will be short. It won't last long.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Yeah, But when somebody comes to you, particularly folks that
you work with that are close to your in retirement,
and they're worried about recession, what do you say to them.
Speaker 4 (01:35):
I mean, the one thing that a lot of folks
do is they worry because of speculation. That's why we
see the headlines change so much. Everything is just speculative.
No one really knows what's going to happen, and that's
usually when markets behave the worst is when no one
really can put a finger on what they think the
next phase is going to be. Right. So, Jamie Dimond,
in the beginning before the election, was kind of an
(01:57):
ardent Trump supporter. He's always been a pretty good he's
always done pretty well staying neutral. But I think he
thought that the President was going to have a lot
of really pro business initiatives, right, and as the tariffs
have gone on, he's become a little bit more vocal, saying, eh,
you know, let's just be understanding of this. So that
doesn't mean that they won't have a good outcome these tariffs.
But come on, mister president, let's help us out here.
(02:19):
None of us know should we be hiring people, should
we be firing people, should we be relocating people? Should
we bring in some of these call centers from other
countries because we can't really afford to do some of
those things. These are all issues, right, And Jamie Dimond
one of the things he just said, he mentioned that
all the interconnectivity of things, right, So the individual investor
is thinking one thing, so they're making decisions yep. Businesses
(02:41):
are looking at wow, is the individual investor or the consumer?
Are they going to be buying our stuff? Do we
need to stock the shelves or should we hey, should
we just hold on to some cash? What should we
do right now? And then that consistent cycle of not
knowing creates all the speculation and the markets don't like it.
You know, when you look at the volatility indexes, which
is the measurement of how scared we are as a people.
(03:04):
It's doubled. It's literally doubled in the last two months.
It's gone from roughly a twelve to around a twenty five,
so more than doubled. When you look at volatility, that
means that people are twice as concerned as they were
a couple of years ago. I'm sorry, a couple months ago,
just a couple months ago. So that's a big deal,
and it's causing the market to get a little bit
(03:25):
of indigestion because it doesn't know what's happening right. So
the thing that we all have to understand is how
do we unpack this information. Well, if we have a
two to three year plan to retire, heck even three
to five years, or we're already retired, most of the
things that are happening right now should not affect your
plan if it was done right.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
Seriously, shouldn't an important summarizing statement if it was done right.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
And being done right means you're not just focusing on
what chunk of money do you have that really is
not it? And in your diversified asset classes, everyone's as
they have that. Yeah, but it's when you know, when
the tide goes out, everyone can see who's been swimming naked?
Speaker 5 (04:06):
Right?
Speaker 4 (04:07):
So, wh when I'm talking about a real plan for
retirement has to have five steps, five pillars. You have
to have Number one, you have to understand how much
protection do you have? What assets do you have that
can't go down? What protections are in place doesn't mean
it's a product mix. It just means how much how
much safety nets are in there? You have a stop loss?
Do you have derivatives? Do you have options that make
(04:28):
money if things go down? Do you have income coming
in from areas that you don't have to worry about?
You know, because no matter what happens with the market,
protection is number one, and that leads to income. So
if you know how much protection you have, the more
protection you have on your money, the more income you
can typically take. Think about it, guys, that's not rocket
science at all. Think about it. If you get a
million bucks and it's all at risk, it could potentially
(04:50):
all go up and down because you owned the big
magnificent seven. You owned Microsoft and Apple and Nvidia and
Amazon and Google, and all of a sudden they're down
twenty five or thirty percent can you take the same
amount of income from that portfolio that's down twenty five percent.
Most gurus would say, well, you shouldn't. If you do,
you could potentially run out of money. So be very careful.
(05:11):
But if you know, hey, you got some of those
things in your portfolio, but not all of it. You
got a lot of stuff it's safe, a lot of
stuff that you know you're tied to treasury rates, or
you're getting really good bank rates on your CDs, or
you have an annuity that's a guaranteed income stream, or
you have a pension and you have airbnbs and things
like that. If you have your income and you know
your protection, guys, those are the two biggest pieces of
(05:33):
a retirement portfolio. When you throw in the third one,
which is tax design, how do you keep more of
that money that you can spend and not let the
government spend it, but it's your money, and you use
true real mitigation techniques to keep more of your money
and to keep illegally away from the government. That's number three.
Those are the big three, right, So if you just
do those big three things, you're going to be in
(05:55):
a much better position because over the course of retirement,
we will probably experire. It's all of us somewhere between
three to six different recessions over the course of about
twenty to thirty years that we're going to spend in retirement.
And if you retire earlier, guess what, there's another opportunity
if you have another recession along the way. So a
quality plan based on protection, income tax design, wealth transfer,
(06:17):
and understanding where healthcare costs are going to be made
up those all five things. If you do that correctly,
it won't matter if you retire today, six months from
now or two years from now, because the markets are
always going to go up and the markets are always
going to go down, and hopefully you just don't happen
to retire at the absolute worst possible time. But even
if you did, you should still know that your income
(06:37):
is sustainable, if not forever, at least for a very
comfortable period like fifteen to twenty years, right. And if
we do that, guys, we can live to fight another day,
which is the whole point. So all the recession fears
typically means that someone does not have a well thought
out plan or they just don't know it. It's possible
they do have one, but they they're not aware of it.
Their guy hasn't told them that, or their gal hasn't
(06:58):
done it, or in all of their math and pulling
out their abacus and their Excel files, they didn't realize, Wow,
I kind of did all this right, I just wasn't
aware of what I was doing at the time.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Retirement Solutionsshow dot Com is where to start the conversation
if you are wondering about your plan, if you're wondering
about these five areas that John has pointed out, we
are here to help you go through all these areas
within your plan, within your receivings and investments, to ensure
that you are properly allocated for these different things that
you need to have covered for your retirement. We also
(07:28):
have links posted in the show notes, so you can
just click there. All of that said, John, does the
same ideology apply then to somebody who's now maybe thinking, well,
should I just delay my retirement with all this recession talk?
Maybe now is not a good time for me to
leave the job. Maybe I should You know, work to
save you do talk about if there is a loss
of funds in our investments in the first few years
of retirement, were what's six times more likely to run
(07:49):
out of money. So maybe people are thinking along those lines.
It's like, now it's just not a good time. Let
me just wait it out a few more years. What
do you say to those people?
Speaker 4 (07:55):
So there was a lot of statistics behind that, right,
So fidelity to the study and if you lose mine,
I mean in the first couple of years of retirement,
fifteen percent or more, you're six times more likely to
run out of money over the course of retirement. I
mean that's been established and published. So those are a
statistical fact. Now. The question, though, is that have you
saved well enough depending on how you're going to live
or you could retire no matter what, does it make
(08:15):
any difference? So you may start off not doing that
Mediterranean cruise. That very first year that your portfolio is
down eight or nine percent, you may want to just
defer that for another year. Does it mean that you
work a little bit longer? It depends on the quality
of life. Right. My whole thing is it's never the
wrong time to make a great decision. If it's time
for you to step out, or you're looking at taking
(08:37):
a buyout option or get right sized or downsized, whatever
they call it. These days. If that is happening, that
should not necessarily change because because we may be in
a recessionistic position at least most of the statistics I see. Again,
if you know where you're protected and where your income's
coming from, you can live to fight another day. It won't.
You'll be perfectly fine. So when someone says, well, John,
(08:59):
I would just feel lot better if I didn't retire
this June. Maybe I'll push it out a year. See
what happens. That is literally that is a total choice
based on what gives you comfort. And I do believe
that people should make choices that they can stand behind
because they give them comfort. But mathematically you may not
have to do that. You just may shift a little
bit when you spend the money. One of the things
(09:19):
that I always talk to people about is how they
can front load the retirement, which means one of two things.
How can you either retire a little bit earlier but
still at the same standard that you want to live at,
or how can you do all those bucket listed items
earlier in retirement? Why because you're younger and healthier probably
than the rest of the rest of your time that
(09:41):
you're going to be retired. You're the youngest and the healthiest.
Usually when you first retire, I want people to front
load that retirement. I want them to start thinking about
the Mediterranean cruise or that Viking River crews, or taking
the kids down to Space Camp or Disney or whatever
it is. Maybe looking at that lake house, maybe you
don't buy it, rent it for a month during the
(10:01):
summer for a few years, just to decide even if
you like it that much. But those are things that
I want people to do when they're younger and healthier
and able to enjoy it. So those are things that
we still want to plan for. Maybe some of those
things the things we kick. But should someone change completely
their idea of retirement just because of something going on
the markets that we can't control, usually, in my opinion, no,
(10:23):
got it.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
But always to your point making decisions for yourself or
your family that you can stand behind, that you are
confident and comfortable with. Absolutely, this is the goal of
every plan that they build at Jayhigen Capital and that
are ready to discuss with you as well. Retirement Solutions
Show dot Com is our website. If you have questions
about all this looming recession talk. Nobody's got a crystal ball.
(10:45):
So we don't know what will happen, but what John
and his team can help you understand is where you
are right now. Do you have a plan that implements
the five pillars he was discussing. Can you retire now
you don't have to delay, or should you work another
year or two? Let's get to we're crunching these numbers
for you and your plan and your goals. This is
everything that goes into the planning process a Jay Haagen
(11:06):
Capital that we can do with and for you as well. Again,
it's Retirement Solutions Show dot Com. Or just click on
the links we've got posted in the show notes. Let's
help you get to work.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
Thanks for listening to The Retirement Solution Podcast with John Hicks.
Begin the conversation about your savings plan with John and
the team at Jayhagen Capital by visiting Retirement Solution Radio
dot com. Be sure to listen to John's radio show,
The Retirement Solution Saturdays at eight am and Sundays at
nine am on NewsRadio eight forty Whas.
Speaker 5 (11:35):
Jhagen Capital Incorporated is not licensed in all fifty states.
To find out if Jayhigan Capital Incorporated is licensed in
your state, Please call five zero two sixty nine oh
fifty six thirty five. I JA Higgan Capital, Incorporated is
not affiliated with, nor endorsed by, the Social Security Administration
or any other government agency, and does not provide legal
or tax advice. By contacting us, you may be provided
with information about insurance and annuity products offered through Jjigincapital
(11:56):
LLCNPN number one eight eight two seven zero nine four
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Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
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If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.