ALL EYES ON BITCOIN FOR A CRYPTO MARKET REVERSAL & CARDANO SUFFERS MAJOR PROBLEM!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcasts. You're home
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
On your way in. Please sit that subscribe button aswalts
a thumbs up button, and leave a common blow. If
you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple,
please leave a five star rating and review. Folks, We
of course have to start with the price of bitcoin

(00:26):
because everyone is waiting for that reversal. We are seeing
a little bit of an uptick here, Bitcoin currently over
eighty seven thousand dollars, but we need more confirmation, you know,
as we always talk about, we need to see strength,
we need to break through certain resistance levels. But one
thing that we are expecting is that a reversal is coming.

(00:48):
The question is it going to be a relief rally
that rolls over into further downside into a bear market,
or a rally that slowly grinds and takes us into
all time. I'm highs right, and I'm not saying this
is going to happen next week. It's probably going to
take months. It's probably going to be a slow grind
to get out of here. Now, why am I expecting that. Well,

(01:10):
the RSI in the daily chart is in the over
soul zone. And as I wrote in my newsletter today,
the fourteen day RSIs and the levels that we've seen
the local bottoms throughout this bull market. In addition, the
market has been in extreme fear. So by the textbook,
these things will usually result in a reversal, a bullish reversal.

(01:31):
So again the big question though, is a relief rally
or a dead cat bounce then a rollover into bear
market or a slow, steady grind into new all time highs.
That's the big question. Now. I'm still in the bullish camp.
And the reason why I am is because of the
macro factors like quantitative tightening ending December one, fed continuing

(01:52):
ray cuts, you get central banks around the globe are
doing quantitative easing. We just talked about Japan the other
day and I wrote about it in my newsletter today,
So make sure you check out the newsletter, guys. It
breaks down a lot of different things. So it's a
patience game, right, It's going to be kind of rough
around the holidays. I'm not expecting anything, honestly. It is

(02:14):
just really painful, and I'm being very honest with you guys,
in transparent it is painful there, right. We have not
seen alts do their thing. Bitcoin dominance has not broken down.
It is just really bad right now. And look the
sentiment in the market reflects that with extreme fear. Now
bitcoin on the weekly chart, the RSI is approaching the
over soul zone, but the bears are still in control

(02:36):
per to mac D on the monthly chart. We're waiting
to see how November is going to close, but right
now a red candle is forming on that MACD. So
not looking great. Guys. You know, there has to be
some catalyst, something that has to reverse this in order
for bulls to grab control back here. But you know,
one thing I want to highlight that Bitcoin's very young,

(02:58):
ascid cryptos, very young acid class, right, so can there
be deviations to the cyclical patterns we've seen over time?
Of course, right the stock market has done different things
over time, so has gold. So I think we have
to expect that things are going to change moving forward,
and we'll update our data points and our thesis accordingly.

(03:20):
But we've got to see how this all unravels, you know,
is this going and to continue going up to new
highs or we're rolling up into a bear market, and
that will change a lot of things. Right, We're going
to have to go back to the drawing board and say, hey,
the things that have happened in the past are not
happening again. So we're going to have to be prepared
for these different type of scenarios moving forward. Now, one

(03:42):
of the things I've been highlighting is that the stock
market has also been in a correction. It's not just crypto,
and that's once again the signal of the liquidity issue
we've been talking about. So whether it be the S
and P five hundred and NASDAK, the Dow Jones. You
look at all their charts, they're all down now. They're
not down to the levels that we've seen in the
Twerff crash earlier this year, and same thing with Bitcoe.

(04:03):
It's not down to that level. But it just seems
like there's so many narratives out there, and you know,
there's a saying narrative follows price, So when the price
is going up, you're getting all these bullish narratives. Right
when the price is going down, all of a sudden,
these bearish narratives come out bubble. You know this and
that and whatever. Right, So it's so funny. This is
why you got to look at the data, because you
know the media will take you for a ride, and

(04:25):
the short sellers are out there, the bears are out
there with tons of narratives. Right, But let's see what
happens folks. Like I said, I believe the macro is
signaling that this thing is not over as yet. Now.
One of the things that's driving fears, as I mentioned
the media, you're seeing mainstream coverage that it's over. You know,
on the Wall Street Journal, the front page this week

(04:46):
next to Trump and Mom Dandie, it says year of
Crypto comes crashing down. Even the economists they put out
an article this past week saying crypto got everything it wanted.
Now it's sinking. Now. These things make me bullish because
if you have Jim Kramer and mainstream media telling everybody
it's over, it's painful, it's done. You know, this is
it right? The top is in and all that. Usually

(05:10):
the opposite happens. So this is why I'm signaling a
reversal is coming. Because you've got the perfect setup, you
got the sentiment, you got everybody believing every you know,
bigoin's going in one direction now. A positive side is
that ETF flows have started to reverse. There were a
lot of outflows right this week, and a lot of
people are selling a lot of whales and so forth. Well,
bigcoin ETFs and even ethere mediaf started to pull some inflows,

(05:33):
so some people are buying the dips here. However, you know,
one of the things I've been sharing with you guys
is the on chain data from Sentiment still shows whales
are slowly getting out of the market. It's not any
straight down line, but they're slowly, slowly getting out. However,
the overall trend is still up because they've been accumulating
for a very long time over the past two years.

(05:55):
But you know that's a signal I've been sharing with
you guys. We want to look at macro charts and
on chain data. You know, you put those three things
together and it gives you a really great understanding of
what's happening in the market. So we need to say
reversal soon both in the price in addition to whales,
you know, stopping their distribution and start accumulating again or guys,

(06:21):
that's it right, it's gonna be over but you know,
like I was saying at the beginning of this year
with the twer cell off and crash, when everybody was fearful,
kind of a similar situation here, you know, saying it's
not over based on the data. Now it is the
data as strong as it was back then for the
bull case. No, So I'm gonna be honest with you, guys, right,

(06:41):
it's not. But I still think the macro is a factor.
I feel like something is setting up to break and
the FED is going to step in with some sort
of liquidity injection, whether that be straight up quantitative easing
and risk assets we know are going to go bonkers
based off of that. But I don't have a crystal ball.
So I'm just looking at what all the things that

(07:04):
are happening, like foreclosures are going up, and the mass
layoffs by companies and all these different things, right the
mortgage industry or real estate industry, and it's stagnant. So
all these different things, you know, show that FED it
is going to have to step in at some point,
but who knows when. Now, folks, this episode is brought
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(07:26):
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out the link in the description. Now, guys, this past week,
and this is something I missed Earlier in the week,
you had the CEO of B and Y, America's oldest
bank and the world's largest custodial bank with fifty three

(08:52):
trillion dollars of assets under management. And his name is
Robin Vince, the CEO, and he was on CNBC and
he said tokenization is a mega trends so they're going
all in. I think we all see the direction the
puck is heading in here because all the major banks
and financial institutions on Wall Street and even around the
globe are tokenizing. They know that's going to unlock a

(09:13):
lot of liquidity and you know more, they're gonna be
able to earn more off of it. Right, They're gonna
be able to do more with assets with defy and
much more. So I hope you see that despite the
headwinds we're facing right now, short term, the Macro. This
asset class is here to say, this technology is here
to say, and there's still money to be made here.
So it does require a lot of patients, right, you know,

(09:37):
you got to be able to stomach the volatility like
we're experiencing now. But you know, this is how money's made.
You go look at great investors like Warren Buffett, Charlie
Munger and all these guys, and you who listen to
what they say about patients, and you know, buying when
people are fearful and being fearful when people are greedy.
You know that those principles are real, going against their

(10:00):
and allow you to make money. Now, folks, some not
so good news about Cardono. I'm sure some of you
saw this. Charles Hoskinson involves the FBI after developer's careless
experiment splits the Cardono blockchain. This is brutal man so
Cardano's chain split in two on November twenty first after

(10:20):
a malformed delegation transaction exploited a d serialization bug dating
back to twenty twenty two. Emergency patches were deployed within
three hours, with the network converging through natural consensus By
the next day. A developer claimed responsibility and apologized to
the Cardono community on xing they were dumb enough to

(10:42):
rely on AI's instructions when attempting to test the damaged transaction.
Founder Charles Hoskinson called the developer's actions absolutely personal and
claim that the FBI is already involved. An IOG employee
said they resigned after Hoskinson involved the FBI to investigate
the incident, citing concerns that future development mistakes could lead

(11:05):
to legal consequences. The price of Ada dropped as much
as sixteen percent in the wake of the incident, before
rebounding slightly. So, folks, you know, these are things that
can happen, right, almost any project. So this is why
we diversify. And you know, I'm not saying this is
the end of Cardano or that's it. Right, things happen,

(11:26):
But again it's why we diversify because you never know
what could happen. You never know. You know, there's outside
forces or inside forces of whatever that can affect a project.
And let's see how this pans out. I don't know
what the after effects are going to be, you know,
price wise, and how quickly the market may forget this. Right,
Let's say we enter into parabolic you forg zone, and

(11:48):
everything's going up. People you know would forget. This is
almost like nothing. It didn't happen, right, So let's see
what happens. But this is not good, and let's see
how things continue to unfold. I do hold some cartotokens
et to tokens, but not a lot. But this is
certainly not good. Guys. You don't want stuff like this happening.
So let's see now. Grayscale calls chainling the critical connective

(12:09):
tissue of tokenized finance, and I'm certainly in agreement there,
and I believe Grayscale is going to launch a chain
Link ETF very soon. In fact, tomorrow, it is expected
that they're going to launch a dochecoin and their x
r p etf spot ETFs tomorrow. That would be Monday,
of course. So in a recent research report, the asset
Manager argued that chain Link's growing suite of software tools

(12:33):
is emerging as essential infrastructure for tokenization, cross chain settlement,
and the broader shift toward real world assets on blockchain rails.
A more accurate description of chain Link today would be
modular middleware that lets on chain applications safely use off
chain data interact across blockchains, and meat enterprise grade compliance needs,

(12:55):
Grayscale wrote. The company added that this expanding footprint has
helped turn Link into the largest non layer one crypto
asset by market cap excluding stable coins, giving investors exposure
to multiple ecosystems rather than a single chain. So I
think they put out this research report ahead of them,
you know, launching a spotty TF for chain links. So guys,

(13:19):
I'm a link holder, I'm very bullish on this project.
They are absolutely right. It is connecting a lot of
different blockchains and tradfy to the web three on chain worlds.
So definitely in agreement with this, folks. That's the news.
Not too much today, obviously, everyone is just waiting to
see what bitcoin's going to do. I think we may
have to wait till December to start getting some of

(13:40):
the macro things coming into the markets, such as QT
ending December first ray cuts and if you know, other
central banks will follow Japan and do quantitative easing, which
would drive global liquidity up. So let's see. Let's see, guys.
I know it's a lot of uncertainty. I know it's painful.
I know it's annoying with you. I got my bags right, Hi, guys,

(14:02):
I want higher prices, but I don't think this is
over based on the macro. But I could be wrong,
and you know, hopefully I'm right, And you know, come
Q one of twenty twenty six, we're all celebrating a
bit because the market has started hitting new highs and
that's my hope. I'm sure many of you have that
hope as well. But it doesn't look like Thanksgiving and

(14:25):
Christmas is gonna be great because the markets are going
to be still down. But let's see what happens, folks.
All right, guys. A great way to support the podcast
is by subscribing to my free email newsletter on substack.
It's one hundred percent free. Like I said earlier, I
put out a write up today, so check it out.
Also check out my book on Amazon it's available in
paperback in digital, and my course at Mycrypto course dot com.

(14:48):
This is a comprehensive course that teaches you everything you
need to know about crypto folks. Thank you for tuning in.
I appreciate you all, and I'll talk to you all later.

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