TRUMP'S TARIFFS CHANGED THE CRYPTO BULL MARKET!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home
for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward.
On your way in. Please let that subscribe button as
well as a thumbs up button and leave a comment below.
If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify
or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Okay, folks,
let's take a look at the price a bitcoin right now,

(00:25):
currently trading at just over one hundred and nine thousand dollars.
So the chop continues, and as we've been saying, we
have to be patient here. A lot of different things
are playing out. We still have some incredibly bullish milestones
coming up on the horizon with the FED ending QT,
the US government reopening, so more liquidity starts coming in.

(00:46):
You have the Crypto Market Structure Bill passing in the
Senate and of course being signed into law by Trump,
in addition to the flurry of all coin ETFs on
the SEC's desk to be approved, mainly xrpns ETFs. So
there's a lot of things on the horizon, but it's
very much a boring chop zone and we could see

(01:08):
further volatility. I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin went down
and touched one hundred and six thousand dollars. But nevertheless,
it's all part of the process. And when you zoom out,
when in down, zoom out, you see we're still in
a bull market. We're still holding key support levels. And
you know, of course, other factors are things like bitcoin
dominance that has not broken down like we've seen in

(01:30):
previous bull market cycles. And right now bitcoin dominance is
actually on the rise. It's been showing some strength here,
so I do believe eventually it's going to roll over.
And here's a couple of analysts have shared their charts,
so Wrecked Capital says bitcoin dominance has monthly closed below
sixty point two zero percent, which technically continues to solidify

(01:52):
this level as resistance. As a result, bitcoin dominance remains
within the fifty seven point sixty eight percent two these
sixty point two twenty percent unless bitcoin dominance is able
to reclaim sixty point two zero percent as support in
the short term, additional consolidation to the downside within the
ranges on the cards or in the cards. So this

(02:14):
is where again, patients, right, the market's going to do
with thing you're going to see bitcoin dominance rise again,
and then I believe it's going to eventually roll over,
and that could be the final phase where I think
this bullmarket runs into twenty twenty six. And in fact,
today I tweeted out about it where I said the
following I said, I'm not sure why many are overlooking

(02:34):
the impact that the tariff situation has had on the
crypto market timeline since the crash in early twenty twenty five.
I've been saying that the prolonged correction after the Q
four twenty twenty four rally is going to shift things.
We saw bitcoin hitting new all time high in August,
which is unusual, and then we had another tariff surprise

(02:55):
from Donald Trump, you know, in October thirteenth. Of course,
that was another row block, and I said, I believe
this bullmarket will continue into Q one, twenty twenty six.
Now that's not my feelings or emotions, but just based
on facts. Right, Like I've said many times, I have
skin in the game. I want to make money and
I don't want to make foolish decisions here, so I'm

(03:15):
looking at the data. Obviously I don't have a crystal ball,
but based on the data. I believe the bullmarket thesis highest,
the higher probability of pulling out versus a bear market thesis. Right,
some other things that I want to highlight here Crypto
currently you can check out his channels that he does
some great analysis. Gave a great breakdown of Bitcoin's chart

(03:37):
showing three possible scenarios. So he says Bitcoin is still
above it's fifty week moving average. Therefore the full reset
scenario remains the bull case. Could the cycle be over,
of course, but as long as we maintain the macro structure,
I still stick with the trend. This is what I've
been sharing, right, that the macro structure is still intact.

(03:57):
So on his chart that he provided, he had as
a final push as the most possible. So that means
bitcoin rallies into the end of the year, which takes
us to about one hundred and forty k ish. He
has a full reset, which means additional pullback is necessary
and there's a prolonged consolidation, but that allows us to

(04:18):
go into higher high so higher prices beyond one hundred
and fifty. And the third scenario is the unlikely one,
which is it's over and we're going to start seeing
collapse into a down trend. Now, until this macrostructure breaks,
we can't say that yet, right, but with the full
reset scenario that is playing out into twenty twenty six,

(04:40):
so that could He says, that's a likely scenario. So
let's see, folks again, no one has a crystal ball,
and we're going to look at the data and what
we have here and try to navigate the market, not
be emotional. Right, people are getting very emotional, very depressed.
People are out there saying this bull market sucks and
much more. But I think people are so caught up
into four years cycle of well, Bitcoin must have topped

(05:02):
at this point because it's x amount of days and
the other bull markets are X amount of days. But
what we've seen in the top has progressively gone out
further each cycle. So that's a fact, right, And we
have to expect that things are going to be different.
Just look at what happened in twenty twenty one. We
had a double peak, right, You had a major top

(05:22):
local top in April I believe it was of twenty
twenty one. Then later on in the year Bitcoin rally
to new highs. So this is where things can be different,
and we want to look at different data sets and
different factors that have signaled the top, and we're not
seeing a lot of them. Yes, there are bearers things
on the charts, but we haven't seen all those respective factors.

(05:44):
And of course one of the things we continue to
follow is global liquidity. Here macro Investor Rale Powell gave
a great update, shared multiple charts and says I usually
like to give you a small fragment of global macro
Investor when I sit down to write it, as I
did with this weekend. Crypto is driven by liquidity. As
you know, for total two ees to break higher, you

(06:06):
need liquidity to make new highs. The government shutdown and
the TGA that's the Treasury General Account delayed it, but
the everything code is in the process by which the
debts get monetized, and due to the extension of the
debts to five years, the largest part of the liquidity
lies ahead. The liquidity flood is building and the government

(06:26):
reopening will be the start of a multi vector liquidity
injection from the Treasury General Account to the PBOC balance sheet,
from bank reserves to the end of QT and more.
Macro is a long game. You need patients for it
to play out. So I'm in full agreement with this,
not because it's just rousing it, but because I've done
my own research here and going through all these different

(06:48):
things and taking the time and going through it with
a fine tooth comb to make sure that I fully
grasp all these things and what's happening. And folks, again,
I still see we are in a bullmarket. Yes, we
are in a correction right now. Yes it's boring, Yes
it feels depressing and all that. Right, but stick to

(07:10):
the data and let's make sure we're focused on that
as our north star, so to speak. And you know, look,
Trump and his situation and the tariffs has thrown a
curveballt in this bull market to us. I think we
all have to admit that, right that was a black
swan event that we saw at the beginning of this year,
and we're still experiencing some of it, Like I said,

(07:32):
October thirteenth with Trump and you know, the China announcement
and then some whale you know, took a massive shorts
some insider trading there, I believe, and I think we're
still feeling the after effects of that. So we really
got to be patient here. But the macro structure is
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Link will be in the description. Now, folks, we got
some crazy news coming out here about Trump and Cz.

(09:39):
We heard recently that Trump pardoned Binance founder Cz. And
there's a report saying that he knows Trump said in
an interview that he knows nothing about the Binance CZ's pardon.
Now there's a bit of a controversy because the clip
is from sixty minutes and it seems to be cut
off where Trump continued, you know, maybe saying he does

(10:02):
know by the part and he just doesn't know Caz personally.
And one user posted a clip. I'm not gonna play
it because sixty minutes keeps copywriting me. But he said,
Trump said he doesn't know Caz personally, but not about
the part in itself. Here's the clip. They appear to
cut him off before he finished his answer. And look,

(10:22):
this is messy, man, And this is the double edged
sort of Donald Trump. Right, And look, I'm an independent,
so I don't have a horse here in a race
here necessarily that Okay, I'm a Republican or a Democrat,
and I like to call it like it is. I'll
criticize anybody who's not doing something right, and I'll praise
anybody who's doing things right right. We want to be
logical and reasonable, not to be cult followers here. So

(10:44):
Trump has been a double edged sort. I told you
guys many times I hate the Trump mean cooin like
no president, no political officials, should have that. But I'm
very thankful for what Trump has done for the crypto market,
you know, with regulations and getting the right people in
play and getting rid of Gary Gancer. I'm very happy
and thankful for that. But you know, Trump has taken

(11:06):
up advantage a bit of this acid class. Let's be
real with that meme coin. We're Liberty Financial, and you're
just seeing a lot of controversy now which his political
opponents are going to use against him, like people buying
the world Liberty Financial stable coin and all kinds of stuff. Right,
and it's it's just messy. It's getting so messy now, right,

(11:27):
we're past the kind of the honeymoon phase and it's like, man,
just pump the brakes, do just let the crypto legislation
get through, you know, do do the right thing. Of course,
which he has been doing a lot of right things.
But I don't think it's Trump per se doing these things.
It's his kids. It's Eric and Don Junior. They're the ones, right.

(11:48):
I don't think Trump is up looking at meme coins
and all that stuff. It's the kids. But they they're
crossing a line in certain places. And you can see
Donald Trump is himself is like, yeah, you know, it's
just messy, man. So I hope you guys appreciate it.
I'm just being candid, right, I'm being very candid here,

(12:08):
and some people are gonna get mad at me because
they love politicians, don't. I don't worship politicians. Man. Yes,
we vote, yes, we picked the candidate we feel his best.
But there are people who just worship politicians, and we
shouldn't be doing that. We should hold our up politicians accountable.
They're here, they're in office to serve us the people, right.
But man, things are getting really messy here. And you know,

(12:31):
we talked earlier about the terriff situation and the impact
that it has had on the crypto market. So it's
again double edged sword here we're dealing with and it's
getting messy. Man. Now, speaking of cz Uh, he himself
has been like pumping Astor to token that's built on
the finance marchain. So here Astor token goes flying after

(12:53):
a SZI reveals two point five million dollar personal mistake,
and today he published that he invested, you know more
into the aster token, So people are kind of calling
him out on it. Look at the end of the day, man,
it is what it is. I didn't even know what
to say it anymore. This is why I'm just waiting
for this market to run up. I'll take my profits

(13:13):
and I'm and you know, whatever happens after that, and
you know, with the bear market and so forth, and
they let it be, I'll just be backing up the
truck buying to dip again, you know, when when it's
bloody and everybody's calling crypto scam again. Right, And so
I don't hold the asker token. I don't know if
any of you do, but this one's you know, close

(13:34):
to binance. Of course, Now look at this coin based
mules two billion dollar bv N case startup acquisition and
stable coin push man. The acquisitions, the mergers that are
happening is incredible. And of course we've got a lot
of companies looking to do IPOs, master the card, you know,
just this week did a massive acquisition. It's just it's

(13:58):
mind blowing to see these things happen. But it signs
up a bull market, it signs of a maturing, growing
acid class. And you know, I recently interviewed I believe
it was Brandon mobile Hill excuse me, have crossover markets
and he said, once the market Structure Bill has passed,
the CLARITIAC You're going to see the big banks and
many of the old Wall Street firms go buy up

(14:18):
a ton of these crypto native firms, startups and so forth,
because they have the capital and they want to, you know,
take over as much of the market as possible. So
how do you do that quickly? You go make some acquisitions. Right, So,
I think we're going to see a lot of M
and A, you know, once that Market Structure Bill passes.
And this is why I believe, guys, this bull market

(14:39):
is not over. There's just so much on the table
with that Market Structure Bill and the impact in addition
to other factors that I don't believe this thing is
top yet. Now there will be a top, and you know,
that could lead us into a recession, you know everything
else that's happening, And maybe that is the catalyst for
the Fed to go full on Q where they stop printing,

(15:02):
because we've seen this story before, right, if the recession
gets too bad, they're going to print their way out
of it. And this is why we continue to diversify
into assets. And while we put our money in crypto,
it's the fastest horse in the race as far as assets.
So let me give it to details. So Coinbase, the
world's third largest crypto exchange, is continuing its stablecoin push

(15:24):
after key legislation in the United States sparked a renewed
wave of corporate interest in blockchain based payments. Coin based
exchange is reportedly in late stage talks to acquire stable
coin infrastructure startup BVNK in a two billion dollar deal.
According to a report by Bloomberg. The two billion dollar
acquisition is expected to close later this year or early

(15:45):
twenty twenty six, pending due diligence from the exchange. According
to an anonymous source, the staplecoin push could bring an
additional source of revenue for Coinbase, which primarily relies on
cryptocurrency trading fees to generate profits. So Coinbase continues to
make massive moves and and in fact, tomorrow morning, I'll
be publishing my interview with one of the coin bas

(16:07):
reps where we talk about their bitcoin loan product and
their Samsung partnership. So stay tuned for that, make sure
you subscribe. And one of the things I said most
recently is we heard rumors that coinbase is planning to
launch a token on base, which is there a theorem
layer two and I said, I'll buy it a token
because all the things that are happening here, and you

(16:27):
know they're going to build and push a lot of
things on base, so you know that's that's something I'm
sharing my thoughts, you know, things that I'm thinking about
and doing, and obviously not financial advice. Do your own research,
but I'm sharing what I'm doing and obviously i'll let
you guys know if I do take a position. All right,
final news item here, and I don't want to play
it because there's this video because I'm going to get

(16:48):
copy readed. But trust me when I tell you the
IMF today put out an explainer on tokenization and it's
just blown I'm just once again, I'm blown away. You
got the IMF, you got these central banks, you got
the Bank of International Settlements and a lot of these
global firms and associations teaching people about crypto and blockchain

(17:12):
and tokenization. Man, We've come a far away, a really
really far away, and I think all these governments and
central banks are ready to adopt blockchain, so now they're
educating people about it. Man, so bullish, So you know,
if you're bearish, I don't know what you're looking at
You got to look at the full picture here, and

(17:33):
I'm bullish man. I'm seeing a lot of things here
that are positive. So folks, that's the news. Let me
know what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below
hit the thumbs up button. If you appreciate this content,
please subscribe to my free email newsletter. It is one
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check out my book on Amazon. It's available in paperback,
in digital, and my course at Mycrypto course dot com.

(17:55):
This is a comprehensive course that teaches you everything that
you need to know about crypto folks, thank you so
much for tuning in. I appreciate you all, and I'll
talk to you all later.

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