HARD TRUTH: Trump's Tariffs Aren't Magic

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We're fact-checking Trump’s claim that tariffs are “bringing in trillions” and somehow paying down the debt and funding $2,000 rebate checks. The math doesn’t work — and neither does the messaging.
In this episode:

• The truth about Trump’s “tariff dividend” promise
• Why tariffs don’t actually pay down debt
• How the Supreme Court could strike down tariff powers
• The contradiction between Trump’s rhetoric and his own solicitor general
• And why real conservatives should demand honest math, not magical thinking

You can’t pay off $38 trillion with wishful economics. Tariffs aren’t magic — they’re taxes.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Watchdog on Wall Street podcast explaining the news coming
out of the complex worlds of finance, economics, and politics
and the impact it we'll have on everyday Americans. Author,
investment banker, consumer advocate, analyst, and trader Chris Markowski.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Tariffs must be magic. Yeah, magical. Well i'll explain how well. First,
a president put out a tweet. Put out tweet because
people don't like the tariffs. People that are against tariffs
are fools with capital letters. We are now the richest

(00:40):
most respected country in the world, with almost no inflation
and a record stock market price four oh one k's
our highest ever. We're taking in trillions of dollars and
will soon begin paying down our enormous debt thirty seven
trillion record investment in the USA. Plants and factories are
going up all over the place. A dividend at least

(01:00):
two thousand dollars of person, not including high income people,
will be paid to everyone. So, okay, trillions of dollars, now,
that's just not true. Okay, it's not true. Okay, people
out that maggot look it up. Okay, just okay, trillions

(01:24):
of dollars in tariffs are not coming in now, How
are you going to pay down the debt when we're
still running a deficit. We're still going backwards. We haven't
balanced any budget. We're still going in reverse. The debt
is now thirty eight trillion, it's not thirty seven trillion.

(01:47):
How are you going to start paying that down if
all of this magical tariff money that's coming in is
now going to be paid out to citizens now. I
don't know if you've noticed this. Presidents do this crap
all the time. When the how shall I put it,
when the ship hits the fan? George uh, George W.

(02:13):
Bush did this. It was remember there was the Czech
city he had on his way out the door. He
was on his way out. Pelosi pushed him on this.
I called it the Incumbent Protection Act of two thousand
and eight. I was making fun of it at that
point in time. Wrote a column about it back in

(02:34):
the day. So yeah, yeah, Bush did that. We had
checks sent out during COVID make people feel happy, happy,
joy joy all of a sudden. Anyway, anyway, his tariffs

(02:58):
are not working. They're a hugely unpopular. Talks about the
fact that the Supreme Court just might happen to rule
them illegal who knows. Who knows, but from watching the
watching some of the debate and the hearing in of itself,
it didn't look good at that point in time. So

(03:21):
here we got two thousand dollars in a tariff. I
want to call it a hail Mary pass, you can,
you can call it that. The contradiction here is extraordinary,
It really is. Is the fact that you're gonna pay

(03:41):
You're gonna pay down the debt with the tariff money,
and you're also going to pay checks to people. The
budget deficit is one point eight trillion dollars. That's with
tariff revenue. Okay, how is this going to happen? And

(04:03):
why can't I get a single person to mister president?
The federal deficit is one point eight trillion dollars with
the tariff revenue factored in? How do you plan on
paying down the national debt when we're running a deficit? Again?
This stuff that hurts my head, It really does. We

(04:27):
talked about this, journal wrote about this today. The claim
of a revenue benefit from tariffs is in contradiction to
what his attorney, Solicitor General John Sower, told the Supreme
Court this past Wednesday, and arguing that tariffs aren't really
taxes and are mainly a tool of foreign policy, Sour said,

(04:53):
and I quote these tariffs, these policies. It is clear
that these policies are most effective if nobody he ever
pays the tariff, if it never raises a dime of revenue,
these are the most effective use of these of this
particular policy. He later added that, so they're clearly regulatory tariffs,

(05:15):
not taxes. They are not. They are not an exercise
of the power to tax. So if tariffs are most
effective if no one ever pays them, then how in god,
here's again the magic of this magic magic. How are

(05:36):
they going to raise revenue so Trump can pay those
rebates from the get go? Again? Okay again, hopefully it's
people are starting to see the forest for the trees.
They're starting to see the matrix. Okay again, Tariffs are taxes.

(06:04):
They are. Trump's lawyer did not want to admit this
at the Supreme Court because again, that's the power of Congress,
and the President would be usurping that. I don't tell
you people, I really don't. I don't know what's going

(06:26):
to happen with the Supreme Court. I don't know how
he's going to pull this off all of a sudden,
You're going to just start cutting checks to people. But again,
you know that's that would be easy to get passed.
Who's going to vote against free money besides Ran Paul
and Thomas Massey, maybe a couple others that will vote
against just sending out cash to the American people. It's reality, people,

(06:52):
it is it is. Trump thinks that tariffs are magic.
I don't believe in it. Watchdog on Wall Street dot
com