Massachusetts' Old Rush Hour Patterns Unlikely To Return Soon, Study Says

The morning rush hour traffic patterns in Massachusetts prior to the COVID-19 pandemic reportedly aren't expected to return soon.

A new study by the Department of Transportation projects Massachusetts highways won't see older rush hour traffic patterns until at least 2024, and even fewer drivers are expected on highways if the economic recovery continues to drag or if working from home remains the norm, WHDH reports.

The decrease in traffic is expected to also have an effect on the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, which gets a significant amount of revenue by providing an alternative to commuter traffic.

MBTA has already downgraded its financial outlook after new multi-year traffic and ridership models were developed and presented by MassDot on Monday. The models, which used Moody's Analytics economic forecasts, Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys and travel data, showed three potential scenarios for transportation trends in Massachusetts.

One scenario showed public behaviors gradually returning to pre-COVID-19 conditions. A second showed telecommuting remaining common even as more businesses resume on-location operations. A third scenario showed economic damages brought on by the pandemic continuing.

In each scenario, the traffic patterns from 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. are expected to remain below projections from a pre-COVID society through, at least, the end of 2023.

“This is not saying that VMT will never get back to where it was in terms of total, but we’re saying in all of these scenarios, we don’t have the same kind of morning congestion that we used to have because of the combination of economic changes and travel changes,” Transportation Secretary Stephanie Pollack said at a Monday board meeting via WHDH.

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