California Republicans Actually Had a Surprisingly Good Election Night

By Travis Dale

November 9, 2022

***UPDATE: November 15, 2022***

It’s official! The Republicans will capture the majority of the US House of Representatives – thanks to key wins in California of all places! 

TARGET HOUSE SEATS – NEEDED TO RETAIN TO WIN THE MAJORITY

CD3 – Kiley (Win)

CD22 – Valadao (Win)

CD27 – Garcia (Win)

CD40 – Kim (Win)

CD41 – Calvert (Win)

CD45 – Steele (Win)

 

TARGET HOUSE SEATS – PICKUPS – POTENTIAL TO ADD TO MAJORITY

CD13 – Duarte (Too Close to Call)

CD47 – Baugh (Too Close to Call)

“The fact that Republicans will win control of the US Congress is directly the result of the hard work of the grassroots activists here in California that chose not to flee but to stand and fight to turn politics around in California,” says Carl DeMaio, Chairman of Reform California. “No doubt we have a long road ahead of us to restore political sanity statewide in California, but winning these seats and giving the Congressional majority to Republicans is all due to their sacrifice and hard work,” DeMaio notes.

***ORIGINAL POST: November 9, 2022***

If the Election Day voting trends continue, California Republicans will have reason to cheer – and continue their fight to restore political balance in the deep-blue state.

 

Across the nation, Election Night 2022 was the “Red Wave that Wasn’t!” National Republicans are only on track to win a slender majority in the House and may either preserve the status quo in the Senate or take the majority. 

But while there were unfilled expectations nationally, in California Republicans are showing surprising strength!  

There are likely to be 4-6 million more votes left to count in California and it will take days if not weeks before winners in all contests can be called. However, based on the initial vote tallies it is clear that California Republicans out-performed in the 2022 election.     

STATE AND LOCAL TAX HIKES:

Prop 30’s statewide income tax hike has been soundly defeated – despite recent polling showing the measure within striking distance of passing. More importantly, most of the local sales tax hikes are losing across the state! 

Reform California’s novel approach of running a united grassroots campaign opposing all state and local tax hikes through its “Plain English” Voter Guide has scored key victories despite a significant funding disadvantage and grossly misleading and deceptive ballot titles put on the tax hike measures by politicians to confuse voters.  

US CONGRESS:

WOW! California very well may be the deciding factor in giving the Republicans the House Majority – or at least enough extra seats to have the ability to govern. 

The defensive target seats in California were a big win with Kiley (CD-3), Valadao (CD-22), Garcia (CD-27), Kim (CD-40), and Steele (CD-45) all looking to retain their competitive seats. One concerning race is Ken Calvert (CD-41) is still behind, but with only 16% of the votes in that race counted, we expect a lot of uncounted votes to break his way so it is still too early to call. The biggest surprise is Republicans are in a very strong position to FLIP up to 3 seats Duarte (CD-13), Baugh (CD-47) and Maryott (CD-49) – but if the final ballots keep the trend we’ve seen for Election Day votes, we could also FLIP an additional 2-4 seats where we are within 5 points of winning right now.  

STATE LEGISLATURE:

THE TIDE TURNS! If Election Day voting trends continue, California Republicans are on track to increase their seats in the state legislature – and the results in other competitive races reveal a “roadmap” to break the Democrat’s Super-Majority in Sacramento. 

In the Assembly, Republicans are in great shape to win toss-up seats of Alanis (AD-22), Pazin (AD-27,) Valladares (AD-40), Ta (AD-70), Dixon (AD-72), and Davies (AD-74). Even better, Republicans could defeat THREE incumbent Democrat Assemblymembers with Hoover (AD-7), Yoo (AD-67), and Bruce-Lane (AD-76). Don’t count Steve Choi (AD-73) out, but he has a hill to climb. Democrats under-performed in AD-36, AD-47, AD-56, AD-58, and AD-60 – so keep an eye on these seats to see if the Republican candidate can make up the gap as final ballots are counted. With the right candidates and resources, these seats should be in play as targets next cycle.

In the State Senate, Republicans win toss-up seats of Nielo (SD-6), Nguyen (SD-36) and Jones (SD-40), are poised to win Shepard (SD-16), and may pull out a surprise win with Gunderson (SD-38). Had Republicans not foolishly split the vote in SD-4 in the primary, they would be celebrating a big improvement in the State Senate right now.  

STATEWIDE OFFICES:

Despite wins in target seats, California Republicans once again fell short in the statewide offices. But despite getting absolutely no funding from the party for these races and highly unfavorable media coverage, there are small signs of progress. 

First, Republicans fielded a candidate in ALL statewide races in the General runoff for the first time since the dreaded Prop 14 “Top Two” voting system went into effect. Second, Newsom’s margin of victory is likely to fall by 4-7% since 2018 and the Recall. Third, Lanhee Chen is just 4% away from winning the Controller’s race – showing Republicans can be competitive with solid candidates. However, for Republicans to win statewide in California, they must rebuild their grassroots political infrastructure of small-dollar donors, volunteers, databases, etc. And they have to learn how to run as a team – more on that later!

As noted, it will take days if not weeks for California to complete its count of all the votes – a deficiency that reflects the absurd election rules the Democrats have imposed statewide.  

However, if the Election Day voting trends continue, California Republicans will have reason to cheer – and continue their fight to restore political balance in the deep-blue state.

Photo Credit: Getty Images

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